Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:58 am

TOL @ July 21, 2019

Powell.jpg


Why Are You Excited With The Fed's Rates Cut?

The Fed Banksters hinted that they would be cutting rates on July 30-31 and the markets automatically moved higher. It's as if the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) is at work.

Does it seemed logical to you? Is the US economy really in that bad a shape that a 25 bps rate or even a 50 bps, is warranted at this point in time?

What happened to having a 3% margin where the Feds can cut rates by, when a major slowdown occurs?

And is the Fed really independent of the White House, who has doubled down, to force the Feds to cut rates, by saying that the US-China Trade War is still a long way from being settled? What happened to "Trade Wars Are Easy To Win"?

And are the Feds blind to the fact that the tariffs that are currently being imposed, would eventually lead to higher inflation?

Or are those goods that are being subjected to the current 25% tariffs, not in their basket of commodities for the measurement of inflation? If not, what is inside their basket?

As mentioned, I think that the slowdown would only happen after the US election in November 2020.

In the meantime, you will have Trump and the Central Banksters of the world, trying to prop up the stock-markets, at the expense of the savers and retirees of the world.

It's as if the Central Bankster's sole purpose in life, is to prop up the stock-markets. And for whom?

Anyway, I will continue to use any spike in the markets to sell my existing holdings.

And It will take a lot of convincing, for me to buy anything more, in this type of market.

However, it's still not the time to really short the market yet, unless there's a very big spike. And if I do short the markets, it's for trading purposes only.

The PPT and the Central Banksters still have a lot of bullets left to manipulate the markets so you do not want to be going against them at this point in time.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Safe (14% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: Zero Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%
(China ADRs should be counted as Asian Equities although they are listed in the US)

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - Bought 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - Progress
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (12 Counters)
Goal: To focus only on counters that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 8 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 55 out of 70 (78%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live on Jul 19 @ 8.45pm)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$55.73 from US$60.35 last week from US$56.82 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined);
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: Dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut in Gasoline; +1m bpd
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: -850k out of 1.65m bpd?
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles +22m barrels / week, largest since 1990; Record
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1437 from US$1410 from US$1418
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.39 from US$15.16 from US$15.26
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$861 from US$822 from US$835;
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. 70% of supply is from South Africa

5. Zinc - Higher; US$2449 from US$2410 from US$2399;
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper); MMG
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Higher; US$2.80 from US$2.68 from US$2.66;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt and Uranium on a weekly basis


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2977 from 2990 last week from 2942 two weeks ago
a. Support: 2320; Resistance: 3000; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28765 from 28472 from 28775
a. Support: 26700; 26000; 25700; 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. Sold Galaxy (0027)
d. Sold SJM (0880)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2924 from 2931 from 3011;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3378 from 3357 from 3367
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 21467 from 21686 from 21746;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1658 from 1669 from 1683;
a. Bought MAA
b. Traded MNRB
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jul 19 @ 9.15pm)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 107.74 from 108.31 last week from 108.04 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0221 from 3.0266 from 3.0463;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7055 from 0.7001 from 0.7016;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 0.9592 from 0.9510 from 0.9521;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.8983 from 2.8784 from 2.9003;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1225 from 1.1264 from 1.1262;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8050 from 7.8224 from 7.7930;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1087 from 4.1105 from 4.1340;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3596 from 1.3584 from 1.3569;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.8789 from 6.8787 from 6.8755;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2512 from 1.2537 from 1.2542;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.1411 from 5.1539 from 5.1853;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 97.12 from 96.93 from 96.94;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
i. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
j. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
k. Japan govt debt highest in world: 1.1 Quadtrillion Yen (USD $10t), 2x size of its economy
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$12t as of June 20, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


HK Properties
a. Vacancy tax
b. 9000 vacant apartments
c. CLSA, UBS and Citi - Prices may drop 10% to 15% by end 2019
d. Slowing Economy / Trade War
e. Depreciating Yuan
f. Weak Stock Markets
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=130


Spore Properties
a. 24,000 Vacant Apartments
b. 52,000 Being Built (2018-2022)
c. 37,800 Unsold Residential Properties @ 1Q, 2019
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=190


Malaysian Properties
a. JPPH: Overhang - 32,313 units (2018) vs 20,304 (2017)
b. Overhang would be greater if Serviced Residence and SOHOs are included
c. 2018 Residential Housing overhang: +31%
d. As at Dec 31, 2018, unsold completed residential units including serviced apartment and Soho totaled 45,027 units, valued at RM29.69bil.
e. There is a further 123,234 residential and commercial unsold units under construction as at the end of 2018
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&p=227635#p227635


China Properties
a. 20% of Urban Housing is vacant (65m homes)
b. In 2018, nationwide ASPs have climbed by 15% to a record high
c. Since 2015, Tier One cities have risen by 55%
d. Since 2015, Tier Two cities have risen by 35%
e. Government targeting annual increase of 7% to 10%
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=130


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.05% from 2.13% last week from 1.96% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.81% from 1.86% from 1.78%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 108.32 from 108.31 from 109.01;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.74 from 86.79 from 87.34;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2130 from 1816 from 1700; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


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winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:49 am

TOL @ July 28, 2019

august.jpg


New Money From The New Month

It will be a new month again and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets next week.

In addition, it's very likely that the US Feds would reduce interest rates by 25 bps next week.

If they do reduce it by 50 bps then the markets would certainly take off.

At the same time, I dont think that they will not reduce rates as they have been preparing the markets for it.

The consensus view now is that the markets should be able to grind higher for the next few months and probably until the US Presidential Election in November 2020.

Therefore, it's probably still safe to buy any convincing story. However, I have not been able to unearth many convincing story. So I have been using this rally to clean up my portfolio and to reduce the number of counters that I have.

I'm also a "contrarian" at heart and I do feel a bit uncomfortable going along with the consensus view, that markets would be grinding higher until November 2020.

Going forward, I will probably sell into rallies and will probably not buy on any dips unless the risk vs reward is very compelling.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Safe (11% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: Zero Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 20%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - Sold 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - Progress
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (10 from 25 in a few months)
Goal: To focus only on about 8-10 counters that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 8 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 55 out of 70 (78%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live on Jul 27 @ 7.30 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$56.19 from US$55.73 last week from US$60.35 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined);
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: Dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut in Gasoline; +1m bpd
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: -850k out of 1.65m bpd?
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles +22m barrels / week, largest since 1990; Record
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1419 from US$1437 from US$1410
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.42 from US$16.39 from US$15.16;
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$869 from US$861 from US$822;
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. 70% of supply is from South Africa

5. Zinc - Lower; US$2441 from US$2449 from US$2410;
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper); MMG
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Higher; US$2.69 from US$2.80 from US$2.68;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt and Uranium on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 3026 from 2977 last week from 2990 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2320; Resistance: 3000; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. Sold Alphabet (GOOG)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28398 from 28765 from 28472;
a. Support: 26700; 26000; 25700; 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. Sold 7500 (HK Inverse 2x)
d. Sold WH Group (0288)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2945 from 2924 from 2931;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3364 from 3378 from 3357;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 21658 from 21467 from 21686;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1648 from 1658 from 1669;
a. Added to MNRB
b. Sold Genting Berhad
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 27 @ 8.45am)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 108.58 from 107.74 last week from 108.31 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0104 from 3.0221 from 3.0266;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6913 from 0.7055 from 0.7001;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.9470 from 0.9592 from 0.9510;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.8511 from 2.8983 from 2.8784;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1134 from 1.1225 from 1.1264;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8189 from 7.8050 from 7.8224;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1289 from 4.1087 from 4.1105;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3700 from 1.3596 from 1.3584;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.8793 from 6.8789 from 6.8787;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2381 from 1.2512 from 1.2537;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.1066 from 5.1411 from 5.1539;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 98.01 from 97.12 from 96.93;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
i. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
j. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
k. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$12t as of June 20, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


HK Properties
a. Vacancy tax
b. 9000 vacant apartments
c. CLSA, UBS and Citi - Prices may drop 10% to 15% by end 2019
d. Slowing Economy / Trade War
e. Depreciating Yuan
f. Weak Stock Markets
g. How much will this protest affect property prices?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=130


Spore Properties
a. 24,000 Vacant Apartments
b. 52,000 Being Built (2018-2022)
c. 37,800 Unsold Residential Properties @ 1Q, 2019
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=190


Malaysian Properties
a. JPPH: Overhang - 32,313 units (2018) vs 20,304 (2017)
b. Overhang would be greater if Serviced Residence and SOHOs are included
c. 2018 Residential Housing overhang: +31%
d. As at Dec 31, 2018, unsold completed residential units including serviced apartment and Soho totaled 45,027 units, valued at RM29.69bil.
e. There is a further 123,234 residential and commercial unsold units under construction as at the end of 2018
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&p=227635#p227635


China Properties
a. 20% of Urban Housing is vacant (65m homes)
b. In 2018, nationwide ASPs have climbed by 15% to a record high
c. Since 2015, Tier One cities have risen by 55%
d. Since 2015, Tier Two cities have risen by 35%
e. Government targeting annual increase of 7% to 10%
f. Will the government remove the property curbs to stimulate the economy?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=130


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.07% from 2.05% last week from 2.13% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 1.85% from 1.81% from 1.86%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
i. Greek's 10 Years Bonds are about 2%, less than US 10 Years Treasuries
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.90 from 108.32 from 108.31;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.17 from 86.74 from 86.79;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1937 from 2130 from 1816; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index
search.php?search_id=active_topics
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby investar » Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:50 am

The consensus view now is that the markets should be able to grind higher for the next few months and probably until the US Presidential Election in November 2020.

Therefore, it's probably still safe to buy any convincing story. However, I have not been able to unearth many convincing story. So I have been using this rally to clean up my portfolio and to reduce the number of counters that I have.

I'm also a "contrarian" at heart and I do feel a bit uncomfortable going along with the consensus view, that markets would be grinding higher until November 2020.

Going forward, I will probably sell into rallies and will probably not buy on any dips unless the risk vs reward is very compelling.



Thanks for your views and ideas.

I am also a bit unconfortable with the consensus view of "up until nov 2020". Buyback effects can't last forever.

Therefore it is probably indeed a good idea to increase exposure to "safe havens".

But imho, there are plenty of convincing stories out there. M&A could ramp up in the next months.

Rather shocking stat: only 1.3% of the world’s public companies account for all the market gains during the past three decades according to Ritholtz today;

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... market-too
investar
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Posts: 813
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:59 pm

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby winston » Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:50 am

Rather shocking stat: only 1.3% of the world’s public companies account for all the market gains during the past three decades according to Ritholtz today;


Thanks for the kind sharing, investar.

This statistics are indeed eye-opening. That means that the momentum and growth stocks are outperforming the rest, by a huge margin.

And probably the way to play them,is to sit on them until fundamentals break down. Years if not decades but going against my trading mentality. But why trade when it's a one-way upwards direction?

I'm also trying to think longer term on some of these trends eg. 5G, Demographics, Autonomous & Electric Vehicles etc.

Take care, Winston
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:21 am

TOL @ Aug 4, 2019

shock.jpg


Can Your Portfolio Withstand A Major Shock?

The markets have been weak over the past week.

Firstly, it was due to the selling on the Fed's predictable 25 bps cut. If the US economy was doing that great, why do you need to cut rates as well as end the QT program two months ahead of time?

Secondly, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on another US$300b of goods, right after the Shanghai meeting. This will not go down well with the Chinese and I do not think that they will succumb to any "gunboat diplomacy".

In view of the above, I think that it's time to review your portfolio, to ensure that it can withstand a major shock or multiple shocks.

"Return of Capital" is now more important than "Return on Capital".

This is the "calm before the storm".

The Optimists are still saying that the markets can still grind higher till the US Presidential Election in November 2020 as Trump will do whatever it takes, to ensure that the US economy is in good shape while he's campaigning.

IMHO, there are too many things that can go wrong now and I would prefer to be a bit more cautious at this point in time.

The following are some quotes from various Gurus and it's timely to review them:-
1. Peter Lynch: If you want to panic, do it early.
2. Peter Lynch: A stock market decline is predictable. If you are prepared, it can't hurt you.
3. Jim Rogers: Wait for the money to be in the corner first and all you need to do is just go there to scoop it up.
4. John Templeton: The best time to buy a stock is when the short-term players have finished their selling and vice-versa
5. William O'Neill: Trading with the Market Direction is of utmost importance

As mentioned, I'm selling into any rallies and am no longer buying much on the dips. I think that the Market Direction now is downwards unless they are able to sort out the Trade War issue.

I dont think that the rate cuts from the Central Banksters will amount to much unless they are able to embark on another round of QE of the same magnitude (around US$16t).

The most likely path for the markets now is a "Chinese Water Torture" one ie. declining slowly.

And having said that, I need to also remind myself that there are a lot of money on the side-lines (about US$11t in negative bonds) that is waiting for a good home. Therefore, any sudden plunge in the markets could also result in a "V" shaped recovery very quickly.

It's probably still not the time to short the markets yet but I may test things out whenever there is a technical rebound.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Safe (10% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: Zero Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - No Exposure
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. Still at about 30%.
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (9 from 25 in a few months)
Goal: To focus only on about 8 counters that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Already reduced my exposure to the Gaming market
b. Still having a heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 53 out of 70 (76%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live on Aug 02 @ 9.30 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$55.81 from US$56.19 last week from US$55.73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined);
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: Dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut in Gasoline; +1m bpd
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: 950k out of 1.65m bpd potential
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles +22m barrels / week, largest since 1990; Record
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1446 from US$1419 from US$1437;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.59 from US$2.69 from US$2.80;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

4. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc, on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 2954 from 3026 last week from 2977 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: 3025; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. Sold Electronic Arts (EA)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 26919 from 28398 from 28765;
a. Support: 26700; 26000; 25700; 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. No Trade
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2868 from 2945 from 2924;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3261 from 3364 from 3378;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 21087 from 21658 from 21467;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1627 from 1648 from 1658;
a. Added to MNRB
b. Added to MAA
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 02 @ 6.30 am)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 106.92 from 108.58 last week from 107.74 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0188 from 3.0104 from 3.0221;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6792 from 0.6913 from 0.7055;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.9353 from 0.9470 from 0.9592;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.8237 from 2.8511 from 2.8983;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1091 from 1.1134 from 1.1225;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8231 from 7.8189 from 7.8050;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1570 from 4.1289 from 4.1087;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3771 from 1.3700 from 1.3596;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.9416 from 6.8793 from 6.8789;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2108 from 1.2381 from 1.2512;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.0330 from 5.1066 from 5.1411;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 98.32 from 98.01 from 97.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. US Social Security & Medicare Short-Fall: US$100t; 2034 Bankrupt; US$3t US Treasuries
i. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
j. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
k. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
l. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$12t as of June 20, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


Properties
a. I'm no longer closely monitoring Properties in HK, China, Malaysia and Singapore.
b. I dont think that properties in these countries will be going anywhere over the next few years.


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.87% from 2.07% last week from 2.05% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.72% from 1.85% from 1.81%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
i. Greek's 10 Years Bonds are about 2%, less than US 10 Years Treasuries
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.92 from 108.90 from 108.32;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.52 from 87.17 from 86.74;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1812 from 1937 from 2130; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168


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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118528
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:18 pm

TOL @ Aug 11, 2019

Waiting.png


Waiting

The US markets have rebounded about 2.5% over the past few days and a lot of people are wondering whether it's time to buy again.

However, when you look at the charts over the past two weeks, this 2.5% rebound is really the 50% retracement of the 5% drop, over the past two weeks.

Therefore, it may not be the time to buy yet if you are a medium term investor.

Until and unless they have sorted out the US-China Trade War or have launched another round of US$16t QE, the markets could be a very dangerous place to be in.

At the same time, there's a lot of money on the sidelines and whenever the markets correct severely, these money would be out bargain-hunting. In addition, the shorts would also be covering their positions and banking in their profits, on any severe downdraft.

So one should not be too pessimistic either, in this type of "trading markets".

Anyway, the global economy is declining and it will be an uphill battle if one is "long" in this type of market over the next few years.

However, there could still be special situation plays out there and I'm focussing my energy on those counters.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Still Safe (18% from 10% of Liquid Assets) could be
Goal: Zero Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - No Exposure
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. Still at about 30%.
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (9 from 25 in a few months)
Goal: To focus only on about 8 counters that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 53 out of 70 (76%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live on Aug 10 @ 5.30 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$54.22 from US$55.81 last week from US$56.19 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined);
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: Dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut in Gasoline; +1m bpd
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: 950k out of 1.65m bpd potential
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles +22m barrels / week, largest since 1990; Record
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1508 from US$1446 from US$1419;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.59 from US$2.59 from US$2.69;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

4. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2919 from 2954 last week from 3026 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: 3025; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25939 from 26919 from 28398;
a. Support: 26700; 26000; 25700; 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. No Trade
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2775 from 2868 from 2945;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3169 from 3261 from 3364;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20685 from 21087 from 21658;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1615 from 1627 from 1648;
a. Bought Genting Berhad
b. Bought Genting Malaysia
c. Added to MAA
d. Added to MNRB
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Aug 09 @ 3.45 pm)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 105.94 from 106.92 last week from 108.58 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0273 from 3.0188 from 3.0104;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.6807 from 0.6792 from 0.6913;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 0.9408 from 0.9353 from 0.9470;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.8482 from 2.8237 from 2.8511;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1189 from 1.1091 from 1.1134;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8418 from 7.8231 from 7.8189;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
e. Just converted some HKD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1840 from 4.1570 from 4.1289;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Just converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3820 from 1.3771 from 1.3700;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.0510 from 6.9416 from 6.8793;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2124 from 1.2108 from 1.2381;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.0729 from 5.0330 from 5.1066;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 97.59 from 98.32 from 98.01;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. US Social Security & Medicare Short-Fall: US$100t; 2034 Bankrupt; US$3t US Treasuries
i. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
j. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
k. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
l. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
m. US Student Debt: US$1.7t
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$15t as of Aug 8
, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


Properties
a. I'm no longer closely monitoring Properties in HK, China, Malaysia and Singapore.
b. I believe that the properties in these countries will not be going anywhere over the next few years.


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.74% from 1.87% last week from 2.07% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.65% from 1.72% from 1.85%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
i. Greek's 10 Years Bonds are about 2%, less than US 10 Years Treasuries
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.71 from 107.92 from 108.90;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.37 from 86.52 from 87.17;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1720 from 1812 from 1937; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index
search.php?search_id=active_topics
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:18 pm

TOL @ Aug 11, 2019

Waiting.png


Waiting

The US markets have rebounded about 2.5% over the past few days and a lot of people are wondering whether it's time to buy again.

However, when you look at the charts over the past two weeks, this 2.5% rebound is really the 50% retracement of the 5% drop, over the past two weeks.

Therefore, it may not be the time to buy yet if you are a medium term investor.

Until and unless they have sorted out the US-China Trade War or have launched another round of US$16t QE, the markets could be a very dangerous place to be in.

At the same time, there's a lot of money on the sidelines and whenever the markets correct severely, these money would be out bargain-hunting. In addition, the shorts would also be covering their positions and banking in their profits, on any severe downdraft.

So one should not be too pessimistic either, in this type of "trading markets".

Anyway, the global economy is declining and it will be an uphill battle if one is "long" in this type of market over the next few years.

However, there could still be special situation plays out there and I'm focussing my energy on those counters.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Still Safe (18% from 10% of Liquid Assets) could be
Goal: Zero Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - No Exposure
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. Still at about 30%.
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (9 from 25 in a few months)
Goal: To focus only on about 8 counters that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 53 out of 70 (76%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live on Aug 10 @ 5.30 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$54.22 from US$55.81 last week from US$56.19 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined);
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: Dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut in Gasoline; +1m bpd
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: 950k out of 1.65m bpd potential
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles +22m barrels / week, largest since 1990; Record
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1508 from US$1446 from US$1419;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.59 from US$2.59 from US$2.69;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

4. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2919 from 2954 last week from 3026 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: 3025; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25939 from 26919 from 28398;
a. Support: 26700; 26000; 25700; 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. No Trade
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2775 from 2868 from 2945;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3169 from 3261 from 3364;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20685 from 21087 from 21658;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1615 from 1627 from 1648;
a. Bought Genting Berhad
b. Bought Genting Malaysia
c. Added to MAA
d. Added to MNRB
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Aug 09 @ 3.45 pm)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 105.94 from 106.92 last week from 108.58 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0273 from 3.0188 from 3.0104;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.6807 from 0.6792 from 0.6913;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 0.9408 from 0.9353 from 0.9470;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.8482 from 2.8237 from 2.8511;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1189 from 1.1091 from 1.1134;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8418 from 7.8231 from 7.8189;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
e. Just converted some HKD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1840 from 4.1570 from 4.1289;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Just converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3820 from 1.3771 from 1.3700;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.0510 from 6.9416 from 6.8793;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2124 from 1.2108 from 1.2381;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.0729 from 5.0330 from 5.1066;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 97.59 from 98.32 from 98.01;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. US Social Security & Medicare Short-Fall: US$100t; 2034 Bankrupt; US$3t US Treasuries
i. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
j. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
k. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
l. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
m. US Student Debt: US$1.7t
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$15t as of Aug 8
, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


Properties
a. I'm no longer closely monitoring Properties in HK, China, Malaysia and Singapore.
b. I believe that the properties in these countries will not be going anywhere over the next few years.


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.74% from 1.87% last week from 2.07% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.65% from 1.72% from 1.85%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
i. Greek's 10 Years Bonds are about 2%, less than US 10 Years Treasuries
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.71 from 107.92 from 108.90;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.37 from 86.52 from 87.17;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1720 from 1812 from 1937; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index
search.php?search_id=active_topics
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Jul 19)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:38 am

TOL @ Aug 18, 2019

Buy Sell.jpg


What Is A Good Level To Buy?

The markets have been weak for the past few weeks and I'm starting to think that it may be time to do some buying.

However, before I start buying, I should reflect more on it.

This is because during the 2007 Sub-Prime Crisis, I started to buy a bit too early and that bear market lasted for about 15 months.

And recently, when I bought in April, it continued to drop for another two months.

This round, I hope to be shorting the market while it's dropping and will only buy after things have stabilised.

Intuitively, I think that the market will only rally strongly on two conditions:-
1. End of the US-China Trade War
2. Another round of QE by the four Central Banksters, of at least the same magnitude as in 2007 ie. US$16t

At this point in time, both are not in place so I'm expecting the markets to be trending downwards for a while more. And at best, it may be range-bound if the Central Banksters reduce rates once in a while.

Therefore, it make sense to be shorting the markets on any rally and then cover whenever it plunges. It's not the end of the world yet.

At the same time, there is a lot of Cash on the side-lines ie. US$3.5t in Money Market Funds and another US$16t in Negative Yield Bonds. These Cash can easily move markets if they do decide to enter the markets.

Therefore, it's also not too safe to be shorting the markets aggresively.

Anyway, the Support for the S&P 500 seems to be at 2800, 2720, 2635 and 2350.

And for the HK market, the Support seems to be at 25,000, 22000 and 21000.

Those would be the levels that I would seriously look to buy or to cover any short positions.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Still Safe (15% of Liquid Assets) could be
Goal: Zero Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - Bought LABD and SOXS
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. Still at about 30%.
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (15)
Goal: To focus only on about 8 counters that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 53 out of 70 (76%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live on Aug 17 @ 10.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$54.92 from US$54.22 last week from US$55.81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined);
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: Dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut in Gasoline; +1m bpd
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: 950k out of 1.65m bpd potential
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles +22m barrels / week, largest since 1990; Record
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1524 from US$1508 from US$1446;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.59 from US$2.59 from US$2.59;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

4. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2889 from 2919 last week from 2954 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: 3025; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. Bought SOXS (Inverse Semiconductors 3x)
c. Bought LABD (Inverse Biotech 3x)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25734 from 25939 from 26919;
a. Support: 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. Traded Galaxy 0027
d. Bought Tencent 0700
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2824 from 2775 from 2868;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3115 from 3169 from 3261;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Bought SIA Engineering
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20419 from 20685 from 21087;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1599 from 1615 from 1627;
a. Added to MNRB
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 17 @ 9.30 am)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 106.37 from 105.94 last week from 106.92 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0146 from 3.0273 from 3.0188;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6779 from 0.6807 from 0.6792;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.9385 from 0.9408 from 0.9353;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.8290 from 2.8482 from 2.8237;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1102 from 1.1189 from 1.1091;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8438 from 7.8418 from 7.8231;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
e. Just converted some HKD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1742 from 4.1840 from 4.1570;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Just converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3845 from 1.3820 from 1.3771;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.0427 from 7.0510 from 6.9416;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2150 from 1.2124 from 1.2108;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.0705 from 5.0729 from 5.0330;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 98.14 from 97.59 from 98.32;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. US Social Security & Medicare Short-Fall: US$100t; 2034 Bankrupt; US$3t US Treasuries
i. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
j. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
k. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
l. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
m. US Student Debt: US$1.7t
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$16t as of Aug 16, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
m. Money Market Funds (US$4t)
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


Properties
a. I'm no longer closely monitoring Properties in HK, China, Malaysia and Singapore.
b. I believe that the properties in these countries will not be going anywhere over the next few years.


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.55% from 1.74% last week from 1.87% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.48% from 1.65% from 1.72%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
i. Greek's 10 Years Bonds are about 2%, less than US 10 Years Treasuries
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.48 from 107.71 from 107.92;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.10 from 86.37 from 86.52;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2088 from 1720 from 1812; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index
search.php?search_id=active_topics
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:46 am

TOL @ Aug 25, 2019

buy-sell-or-hold.jpg


Is It Time To Buy?

The US markets dived on Friday and many people are wondering whether it's time to buy.

Intuitively, there could be a technical rebound for the following reasons:-
1. The short-sellers may want to cover their positions and realise some of their profits.
2. Some bargain hunters may want to do some buying on the dip

However, the conditions for a strong rebound are still not there:-
1. End to US-China Trade War
2. Another round of QE of around US$16t

At this point in time, it looks like the US-China Trade War will worsen and will probably drag on till the November 2020 Presidential Election.

And at Jackson Hole, we did not hear anything about the Central Banksters doing another round of money-printing. However, I'm sure that they have had that discussion at Jackson Hole and will execute if the market crashes, as in 1987, 1997 and 2007.

As for the G7 Meeting this weekend, I'm not expecting much from them. They wont be even having a joint communique after the meeting.

Having said that, there's still a lot of money on the sidelines ie. around US$20t (about US$16t in negative yield bonds and another US$4t in Money Market funds). These money is waiting to buy on any bargains and can certainly move markets.

Therefore, I feel that it's still ok to buy any convincing story but to treat it as a "trade" instead of a "long term investment".

Risk Management eg. Position Sizing, Trailing Stop Loss, Time Limit, Cash Levels etc. is of utmost importance in this type of trading market.

I do not think that this is a "Buy & Hold" market.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Safe (14% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 20%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - Traded LABD (Inverse Biotech 3x) and SOXS (Inverse Semiconductors 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. Still at about 30%.
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (13 counters)
Goal: To focus on about 5 to 8 counters only, that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 53 out of 70 (76%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live on Aug 23 @ 7.00 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$55.42 from US$54.92 last week from US$54.22 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined);
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season winding down in 2 months
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut in Gasoline; +1m bpd
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: 950k out of 1.65m bpd potential
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles +22m barrels / week, largest since 1990; Record
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1505 from US$1524 from US$1508;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.56 from US$2.59 from US$2.59;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

4. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2847 from 2889 last week from 2919 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: 3025; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. Sold SOXS (Inverse Semiconductors 3x)
c. Sold LABD (Inverse Biotech 3x)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 26179 from 25734 from 25939;
a. Support: 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. Sold Tencent 0700
d. Sold 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng 2x)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2897 from 2824 from 2775;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3110 from 3115 from 3169;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 20711 from 20419 from 20685;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1609 from 1599 from 1615;
a. Sold some MNRB
b. Sold some MAA
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 23 @ 6.30 pm)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 1.0663 from 106.37 last week from 105.94 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0208 from 3.0146 from 3.0273;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6755 from 0.6779 from 0.6807;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.9371 from 0.9385 from 0.9408;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.8305 from 2.8290 from 2.8482;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1056 from 1.1102 from 1.1189;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8422 from 7.8438 from 7.8418;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1904 from 4.1742 from 4.1840;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Just converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3872 from 1.3845 from 1.3820;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.0814 from 7.0427 from 7.0510;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2214 from 1.2150 from 1.2124;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.1178 from 5.0705 from 5.0729;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 98.42 from 98.14 from 97.59;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. US Social Security & Medicare Short-Fall: US$100t; 2034 Bankrupt; US$3t US Treasuries
i. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
j. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
k. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
l. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
m. US Student Debt: US$1.7t
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$16t as of Aug 16, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
m. Money Market Funds (US$4t)
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


Properties
a. I'm no longer closely monitoring Properties in HK, China, Malaysia and Singapore.
b. I believe that the properties in these countries will not be going anywhere over the next few years.


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.64% from 1.55% last week from 1.74% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 1.63% from 1.48% from 1.65%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
i. Greek's 10 Years Bonds are about 2%, less than US 10 Years Treasuries
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.57 from 107.48 from 107.71;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.95 from 86.10 from 86.37;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2118 from 2088 from 1720; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index
search.php?search_id=active_topics
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:27 pm

TOL @ Sep 1, 2019

September.jpg


New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, we should see a spike in the markets next week, unless the fund managers have already spent the money in advance, over the past few days.

Anyway, there seems to be an invincible hand prodding the markets higher over the past few days.

Eventhough China has denied making any calls to the US side, to restart the trade talks, the markets continue to move higher.

And if there were actually two calls being made by the Chinese to the US side, then it's very easy to answer the following three questions:-
1. Who made the calls
2. At what date and time and
3. To whom

Till date, no one from the US side has been able to answer these three questions.

If one is a bit cynical, one would say that it's the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) trying to prop up the market after the G7 conference.

And if that's the case, it's no point fighting them, as they do have some fire-power.

Therefore, it's still a Trading Market and if there's any good set-up, I will trade it.

It's probably not time to be too cautious as there's still a lot of Cash sitting on the sidelines.

Rrecently, one of the Investment Houses did also put out a report, saying that the time to buy is getting closer.

Over the next few weeks, the Feds would probably be reducing rates again. Thereafter, we will also be hitting 3Q Window Dressing season.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Exposure To Equities: Safe (16% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next recession (2020-2021?); Maximum 20%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - No Progress
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. Still at about 30%.
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (17 counters)
Goal: To focus on about 5 to 8 counters only, that have convincing stories

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia

Total: 53 out of 70 (76%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live on Aug 31 @ 9.15 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$55.16 from US$55.42 last week from US$54.92 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
a. Trade Wars will reduce demand for Oil; -1m bpd?
b. Global Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m barrels over 8 years.
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total demand of India and Japan combined); Heavy Oil;
e. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life dropped from 10 to 6 years
f. China: Ban on Petrochemical Cars in 5-10 years? Quotas?
g. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries; Supply shortage in 2020?
h. Saudi: Aramco's IPO 2021? -1.3m bpd (35% cut); Fiscal Break-Even US$85;
i. China: SPR 51/90 days; 2019 imports to decrease?
j. Brazil +200k bpd; Canada -325 bpd; Nigeria -300k bpd; Iraq -150k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd;
k. Venezeula: -400k bpd to 875k bpd, -17%; Max Production: 2.2m bpd
l. Iran: 2.6m bpd; -400k bpd
m. US Summer Driving season winding down in 2 months
n. OPEC: Heavier Crude; More Processing;
o. US: Lighter Crude and Lower Sulphur; Glut Gasoline; +1m bpd; 2018 Production +17% yoy;
p. EV: -350k bpd?
q. Libya: 950k out of 1.65m bpd potential
r. US Break-Even; Permian: US$35 to US$50; Shale: US$50
s. Opec: Cut 2.3m bpd since Nov 2018; 9 months extension (April 2020)
t. Russia: Oil Contamination; -500k bpd; Wants US$60-US$65 Oil
u. US: Stockpiles: Reducing?
v. Shale Debt: 9b maturing in 2019; $137b to mature between 2020-2022
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1529 from US$1505 from US$1524;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1400;
a. Global 33k tons; US 8k t; China 5k t; IMF 3k t; Germany 3k t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand from Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. China: Jewelry: +3% yoy; Industrials -10% yoy; PBOC: 2.4% forex reserves vs US 74%; Retail; Safe Haven: RMB lost 1/3 vs Gold since Jun 2007;
k. Global Demand: China +5%; India -8%;
l. Central Banks: +70% yoy; 33k tons; Russian, Turkey, Khazakhstan & India
m. U.S. government holds 260m ounces at book value of only US$42m
n. China: Reserves 185m oz; 400m oz ground; Output decreased 6% yoy
o. China: PBOC bought gold over last 6 months
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.56 from US$2.56 from US$2.59;
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

4. No longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 2926 from 2847 last week from 2889 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: 2940; 3025; 3260; Fwd PE 16
b. Bought Ultra Beauty (ULTA)
c. Bought Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
d. Traded Phillip Morros (PM)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25725 from 26179 from 25734;
a. Support: 25000, 24500, 23500;
b. Resistance: 31200, 31600;
c. Bought Tencent 0700
d. Bought China Mengniu 2319
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2886 from 2897 from 2824;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3107 from 3110 from 3115;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Sold Riverstone
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20704 from 20711 from 20419;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade; No Convincing Story
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1612 from 1609 from 1599;
a. Bought Supermax
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 31 @ 7.00 am)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 106.29 from 1.0663 last week from 106.37;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0208 from 3.0146 from 3.0273;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6731 from 0.6755 from 0.6779;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.9348 from 0.9371 from 0.9385;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.8311 from 2.8305 from 2.8290;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1056 from 1.1102 from 1.1189;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8487 from 7.8422 from 7.8438;
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8530
b. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
c. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
d. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2052 from 4.1904 from 4.1742;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Just converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3885 from 1.3872 from 1.3845;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.1541 from 7.0814 from 7.0427;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2157 from 1.2214 from 1.2150;
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.1125 from 5.1178 from 5.0705;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger 98.92 from 98.42 from 98.14;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

Sentiment - Complacent?

Headwinds
a. Derivatives (US$700t);
b. Debts (US$247t, 320% GDP);
c. Corporate Debt (US$50t); US Corp Debts (US$9t)
d. Institutional Investors (US$0.5t)
e. ETFs AUM (US$3.4t)
f. Bitcoin (US$200b)
g. US Pension Short-Fall: US$385b
h. US Social Security & Medicare Short-Fall: US$100t; 2034 Bankrupt; US$3t US Treasuries
i. NPLs at European Banks: EUR$1t
j. China's Bond Market: US$12t (third largest)
k. Private Client Cash Levels as a % of Total Assets: Record Low (10.4%)
l. Japanese government’s debt highest in the world: 1.1 QUADRILLION yen (about USD $10 trillion), twice the size of its entire economy.
m. US Student Debt: US$1.7t
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=140


Tailwinds
a. Low Interest Rates
b. Cash Sidelines (US$50t)
c. QE US$18t: US (US$4.5t), ECB (US$3.7t), Japan (US$4.4t) & China (US$5.1t)
d. Negative Yield Bonds (US$16t as of Aug 16, 2019)
e. US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2.5t)
f. Cash US Corporations (US$1t)
g. Cash
h. Buybacks
i. US Household Net Worth (US$90t)
j. EM Consumption
k. Private Equities US$600b Cash
l. Negative Yield on some European JUNK Bonds
m. Money Market Funds (US$4t)
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&start=30


Risk Management:-
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&start=120


Properties
a. I'm no longer closely monitoring Properties in HK, China, Malaysia and Singapore.
b. I believe that the properties in these countries will not be going anywhere over the next few years.


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.50% from 1.64% last week from 1.55% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.50% from 1.63% from 1.48%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: One 25 bps cut by end 2019?
c. Argentina's Intertest Rate: 60%
d. Turkey's Interest Rate: 24%
e. Ukraine's Interest rate: 18%
f. German 10-year bunds at -0.167% as of May 30, 2019
g. Japanese 10-year JGB at -0.1% as of May 30, 2019
h. 6 Developed market and 13 EM central banks to ease in 2H 2019
i. Greek's 10 Years Bonds are about 2%, less than US 10 Years Treasuries
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670


JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.81 from 108.57 from 107.48;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.16 from 86.95 from 86.10;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2277 from 2118 from 2088; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2823&start=40


Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index
search.php?search_id=active_topics
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

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