Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:19 pm

TOL @ Mar 08, 2020

capital-preservation.jpg


Time For "Preservation Of Capital"?

The US markets continued it's volatility this week, while the markets in China continued it's uptrend.

In times like this, where there is "irrational fear" and "inaccurate data", it's better to step aside to see how things develop.

Markets tend to go in a certain direction until there's a bigger opposite force, to first slow it's momentum and then subsequently change it's direction.

The markets will probably be choppy for a while with a downward bias, until the Central Banksters announce a coordinated move, to address the problem.

It's very likely that the Central Banksters and Plunge Protection Teams (PPT), would be doing the following soon if they have not already done so:-
1. Lowering of interest rates to about zero
2. Printing of money to buy bonds, to lower interest rates to about zero
3. Printing of money to buy ETFs, as in Japan
4. Manipulate the indices by pushing up a handful of stocks (6 stocks in the US, 3 stocks in HK etc)
5. Ban Short-Selling
6. Announce various stimulus programs eg. infrastructure programs, "helicopter money" (as in HK where everyone is getting HK$10,000), tax credits etc.

In view of the above, it may not be a good idea to bet against the Central Banksters at this point in time.

However, if there's some euphoria again, probably on the announcement of some of the above programs, I may buy some Inverse ETFs to trade.

Anyway, my gut feeling at this time is to preserve some capital.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (29% from 33% last week, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (69% from 72% last week):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash: No Trade
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (23 from 24 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 20 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 6 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk on (Data from Commodities Live on Feb 22 @ 10.00 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$41.61 from US$53.44 last week from US$52.23 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1674 from US$1646 from US$1586;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.55 from US$2.60 from US$2.60;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2972 from 3338 last week from 3380 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Flat. 26139 from 26130 from 27309;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. No Trade
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3035 from 2880 from 3040;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2970 from 3011 from 3181;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Sold Keppel Pacific Oak Reit
c. Sold Manulife US Reit
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20750 from 21143 from 23387;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1483 from 1531 from 1544;
a. Sold MYEG
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Mixed (Data from XE.com on Mar 6 @ 3.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 105.91 from 108.75 last week from 111.56 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0233 from 3.0216 from 2,9963;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.6624 from 0.6507 from 0.6629;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.9167 from 0.9080 from 0.9268;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.7710 from 2.7435 from 2.7770;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1229 from 1.0992 from 1.0843;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7722 from 7.7932 from 7.7874;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1839 from 4.2166 from 4.1901;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3838 from 1.3952 from 1.3984;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9465 from 6.9836 from 7.0271;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2974 from 1.2878 from 1.2958;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Flat; 5.4284 from 5.4286 from 5.4294;

13. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 96.52 from 98.42 from 99.26;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent to Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.82% from 1.22% last week from 1.47% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.51% from 0.99% from 1.39%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 107.00 from 106.62 from 110.08;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.02 from 85.69 from 88.33;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 599 from 529 from 480; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:04 pm

TOL @ Mar 15, 2020

buy-sell-or-hold.jpg


Buy, Sell or Hold?

The markets have been on a roller-coaster ride for the past few weeks. A lot of people cannot stand the volatility anymore and now wants to get off the roller-coaster.

But is it really the time to sell? And after it has dropped so much?

Intuitively, I think that it may be too late to sell now. Fear is in the air and everyone that wants to sell, has already sold.

In addition, the Central Banksters and the Plunge Protection Teams, are already scheming to push the markets higher. It could be in the form of another round of coordinated QE, interest rates reduction, changing the short-selling rules etc.

However, if one is really desperate to get off the roller-coaster, then one should maybe HOLD for the 50% technical rebound before selling.

For the same reason, I also think that it's too dangerous to buy Puts or Inverse ETFs now.

Having said that, if the markets become too euphoric or if it touches the 50% technical rebound, I may buy some Puts or Inverse ETfs, to hedge against my existing holdings.

As for BUYing shares for the medium term, I have to first make sure that it's "Cheap, Hated and on an Uptrend".
,
However, that doesn't mean that I will not day-trade if the market crashes, like it did on Friday. I did make a quick 4% on 4 different trades. But it was a wrong strategy.

I should have bought a Bull Call instead (at 30x leverage) and I would have made a few hundred percent instead of the meagre 4%.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FTSE Russell A share Index adjustments on Mar 23
2. FTSe Russell World Goverment Bond Index review for Malaysia

Finally, it's encouraging to see the number of new Covid19 cases decreasing in China as well as more people recovering from this "pandemic". It's also good to note that the mortality rate in Korea is only 1% versus the estimates of 4%. I think that I can trust the numbers from Korea.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 29% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities during a crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (74% from 69% last week from 72% two weeks ago):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash: No Trade
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (26 from 23 last week from 24 two weeks ago)
Goal: To focus on about 20 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 5 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 8 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk on (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$32.97 from US$41.61 last week from US$53.44 two weeks ago;
Support: US$30; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1529 from US$1674 from US$1646;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.49 from US$2.55 from US$2.60;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2711 from 2972 last week from 3338 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2320; Resistance:
b. Bought Franco Nevada (FNV)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24033 from 26139 from 26130;
a. Support: 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought CNOOC
d. Traded Alibaba (9988)
e. Traded Tencent (0700)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2887 from 3035 from 2880;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. Traded A50 (2822) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2634 from 2970 from 3011;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Bought Riverstone
c. Bought DBS
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17431 from 20750 from 21143;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1345 from 1483 from 1531;
a. Added to Dayang
b, Added to Hume
c. Traded Datasonic
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 13 @ 8.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 106.78 from 105.91 last week from 108.75 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0318 from 3.0233 from 3.0216;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6309 from 0.6624 from 0.6507;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.8897 from 0.9167 from 0.9080;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.6997 from 2.7710 from 2.7435;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1173 from 1.1229 from 1.0992;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7684 from 7.7722 from 7.7932;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2783 from 4.1839 from 4.2166;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.4115 from 1.3838 from 1.3952;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.9865 from 6.9465 from 6.9836;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2517 from 1.2974 from 1.2878;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.3541 from 5.4284 from 5.4286;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.86 from 96.52 from 98.42;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Irrational Fear?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.94% from 0.82% last week from 1.22% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.52% from 0.51% from 0.99%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.9 from 107.00 from 106.62;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.61 from 86.02 from 85.69;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 633 from 599 from 529; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:25 am

TOL @ Mar 22, 2020

Gambler.jpg


The Gambler

Kenny Rogers passed away yesterday and of all his songs, the lyrics from "The Gambler" has stuck on to me:-

"You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run

You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done"


The above meant the following to me:-
1. One must know the Risk vs Reward
2. If The Rewards are much more than the Risk, then one should Hold or Buy More
3. If the Rewards are much less than the Risk, then one should Cut One's Losses
4. One's job is to survive the gamble. That means proper Position Sizing, Trailing Stops etc.

What great advice! RIP Kenny Rogers. The following is a video of "The Gambler":-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN1AtzLrW4Y


And applying the above to the current situation:-

1. I need to spread out my bullets. This Bear Market may last a year or even longer.

2. I may buy slightly if the price is ridiculously cheap but I need to remind myself that the "Risk vs Reward" is not on my side, at this point in time.

3. "Cheap" can become "much cheaper" very fast, especially when a few large hedge funds have just recently imploded and everyone is trying to raise Cash. That was why Gold fell and the rates on 10 Year Treasuries also spiked up when Equities was crashing.

4. The Central Banksters have not had much success with their recently announced "big bazookas". They will need to come out with "bigger bazookas", which I think is on the way. During the last crisis, they printed US$16t. This round, I'm expecting US$20t.

5. If the next big bazooka can calm the market, then the market can rebound very quickly. Maybe that would be a good time for one to lighten up one's position if one did not manage to run before this crash.

6. In addition to a big bazooka that works, the authorities also need to announce that the Covid19 can be treated and that the recovery rate is high. So far, they are treating the Covid19 with the following drugs, with some success:-
i. Oseltamivir
ii. Lopinavir
iii. Ritonavir
iv. Remdesivir (Gilead)
v. Favipiravir
vi. Chlorphenamine
vii. Hyroxychloroquine

7. It's a fast moving situation. One has to be very nimble, else one should not play in this type of market.


For next week, we still have the following:-
1. FTSE Russell A share Index adjustments on Mar 23
2. FTSe Russell World Goverment Bond Index review for Malaysia


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (32% from 33% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (76% from 74% last week from 69% two weeks ago):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash: No Trade
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (30 from 23 last week from 26 two weeks ago)
Goal: To focus on about 20 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 6 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 9 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 7 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$23.66 from US$32.97 last week from US$41.61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$20 (2001); US$13 (1999); Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1501 from US$1529 from US$1674;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.15 from US$2.49 from US$2.55;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2305 from 2711 last week from 2972 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Sold Franco Nevada (FNV)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22805 from 24033 from 26139;
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought Zijin (2899)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2746 from 2887 from 3035;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. Bought A50 (2822) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2411 from 2634 from 2970;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Bought Manulife Reit
c. Bought Silverlake Axis
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16553 from 17431 from 20750;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1303 from 1345 from 1483;
a. Sold Maybank
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 21 @ 5.15PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.94 from 106.78 last week from 105.91;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.0314 from 3.0318 from 3.0233;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.5794 from 0.6309 from 0.6624;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.8399 from 0.8897 from 0.9167;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.5458 from 2.6997 from 2.7710;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.0760 from 1.1173 from 1.1229;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7564 from 7.7684 from 7.7722;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.3963 from 4.2783 from 4.1839;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.4497 from 1.4115 from 1.3838;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.0963 from 6.9865 from 6.9465;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.1660 from 1.2517 from 1.2974;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.1229 from 5.3541 from 5.4284;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.82 from 97.86 from 96.52;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Irrational Fear?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.89% from 0.94% last week from 0.82% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.33% from 0.52% from 0.51%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 86.10 from 96.90 from 107.00;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 69.75 from 77.61 from 86.02;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 625 from 633 from 599; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:04 am

TOL @ Mar 29, 2020

Correction.jpg


Uninvestable Markets For The Next Few Months?

The markets have been very volatile over the past few weeks and I'm starting to think that it's univestable, at least for the next few months.

We now have a declining global economy with massive unemployment, substantial reduction in consumer spending, bankruptcies, movement restrictions and disruption in manufacturing.

And on the other side, we have the Central Banksters, throwing whatever they can, to reflate the markets. And if one is having second thought about how effective the Central Banksters are, just look at Japan. It rose 17% in 3 days!

In addition, we do not know when this Covid19 pandemic will end. Will it last 2 years or will it be over in 3 months, during this Summer? Most importantly, will they be able to quickly find a reliable and effective treatment for it?

Anyway, the following are my thoughts on the various countries that I invest in:-
1. HK: Double Whammy of Protests and Covid19. Univestable except for a handful of stocks.
2. China: How fast can they recover from the Covid19? And who would they be exporting to (if the other countries are not buying)?
2. Singapore: Double Whammy of Covid19 and Weak SGD (vs USD). Uninvestable except for a handful of stocks.
3. Malaysia: Quadruple Whammy of Covid19, Political Instability, Weak MYR and Weak Oil Prices. Uninvestable.
4. US: Triple Whammy of Covid 19, Supply Disruption and Presidential Election. Uninvestable except for a handful of stocks.

In view of the above, it looks like the markets are now uninvestable for the next few months unless one is a Day Trader, or until they have found a reliable and effective treatment for the Covid19.

The above is assuming that the Central Banksters, National Teams, Plunge Protection Teams etc., will continue to support the markets whenever it drops sharply.

I now need to remind myself not to allocate anymore capital to the markets over the next few months, unless it's to day-trade some leveraged derivatives.

As for my Cash & Currency Allocation, I need to remind myself to convert my Non-USD (including HKD) to USD, whenever I can.

In addition, I need to ensure that I allocate my Cash to Equities sparingly over the next 12 months or until they have found a reliable and effective treatment for this Covid19.

At this point in time, I'm expecting things to be slow for 18 months only. I will review my timeline as we go along.

In 2008, I made the mistake of using up a lot of my bullets in the first 3 months of the crash. Prices then continue to drop for another year and I didnt have enough bullets to buy at the bottom. Hopefully, I would be smarter this time around.

Finally, I need to also remind myself to not become a perma-bear. There will be a time when the market is investable again, hopefully in a few months time and I must start nibbling again at that time.

At this point in time, I do not think that it's a "V" market. Probably a few "W"s until they are able to find a reliable and effective treatment for the Covid19.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-[/b]

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (21% from 32% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next recession (2021?); Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (70% from 76% last week from 74% two weeks ago):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash: Progress
a. Bought 7500 (Inverse 2x Hang Seng)
b. Bought TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. Bought SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (21 from 30 last week)
Goal: To focus on maximum 20 counters from 4 countries

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$21.84 from US$23.66 last week from US$32.97 two weeks ago;
Support: US$20 (2001); US$13 (1999); Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1631 from US$1501 from US$1529;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.17 from US$2.15 from US$2.49;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 2541 from 2305 last week from 2711 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Bought TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. Bought SOXS (Inverse Semi-Conductors 3x)
d. Sold Amazon (AMZN)
e. Sold 1/2 Microsoft (MSFT)
f. Sold 1/2 Bershire Hathaway (BRK.B)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23484 from 22805 from 24033;
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Sold Zijin (2899)
d. Sold CNOOC (0883)
e. Sold China Mobile (0941)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2772 from 2746 from 2887;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. Sold A50 (2822) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2529 from 2411 from 2634;
Resistance 3850
b. Sold Manulife Reit
c. Sold Silverlake Axis
d. Sold Genting Singapore
e. Sold Riverstone
f. Sold DBS
g. Sold 1/2 Haw Par
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19389 from 16553 from 17431;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1343 from 1303 from 1345;
a. Sold Dayang
b. Sold Hume Industries
c. Sold Pharmaniaga
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Risk On (Data from XE.com on Mar 27 @ 8.30PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.66 from 110.94 last week from 106.78 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.0305 from 3.0314 from 3.0318;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.5794 from 0.6309 from 0.6624;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.8681 from 0.8399 from 0.8897;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.6305 from 2.5458 from 2.6997;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.0996 from 1.0760 from 1.1173;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7517 from 7.7564 from 7.7684;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.3443 from 4.3963 from 4.2783;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.4332 from 1.4497 from 1.4115;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.0938 from 7.0963 from 6.9865;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2243 from 1.1660 from 1.2517;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.3189 from 5.1229 from 5.3541;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.40 from 102.82 from 97.86;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Irrational Fear?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.68% from 0.89% last week from 0.94% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.25% from 0.33% from 0.52%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 93.77 from 86.10 from 96.90;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.83 from 69.75 from 77.61;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 569 from 625 from 633; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:53 am

TOL @ Apr 05, 2020

wall.jpg


Market Crash: How Deep & How Long?

Over the past week, the US Market has given back about 6% of it's 17% rise.

"Experts" like Jeffrey Gundlach and Mark Cuban, feel that the recent bottom, would be taken out.

Other "experts" like Bill Ackman, has mentioned that he has taken off his bearish bets and is now betting that the market would rise.

So where do we go from here?

Intuitively, I think that the markets would probably not rise significantly, until they have found an effective treatment for the Covid19.

At this point in time, the best brains in the world, are testing about 12 different drugs on this Covid19. It would be just a matter of time before they find an effective treatment for this Covid19.

My base case is that this Covid19 would probably end when the hot weather arrives, around June 2020. That means that the markets should also be trending upwards from June 2020.

In addition, the statistics from China, Japan and Korea, are quite encouraging. Although there are some asymptomatic cases and the fear of a "second wave", things are grinding along slowly and are quietly getting back to normalcy.

The above scenario also ties in with "experts" like Mark Hubert, who feels that the markets would trend upwards from June 1, 2020 (Peak VIX of 85.47 on March 18, 2020 + 75 Days).

However, the duration of the above scenario is much shorter than the duration of the Sub-Prime Crisis in 2007 (which lasted 16 months, 50% drop) nor the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 (which lasted 2 years, 45% drop).

And the depth of the current correction of 26% (with a recent bottom of 33%) is also shallower than previous drops, althought the speed of the plunge was the fastest on record.

zin the meantime, I will also be keeping an eye on the coming "Quarterly Earnings Estimates". Markets normally move about 4 months before the rise in earnings estimate. However, it's very hard to see Q2 earnings projection being increased at this point in time.

Anyway, the following are my current thoughts:-
1. China & HK: Probably a fat "V". Time to start cleaning up the watchlist.
2. Singapore: Watching selected stocks but will probably not buy until June unless there's a 50% drop in price
3. Malaysia: Watching selected stocks but I will probably not buy until Parliament sits in May, unless there's a 50% drop in price.
4. US: Watching selected stocks but will probably not buy until June unless there's a 50% drop in price

Finally, I would like to say there's a bit of fear on this Covid19. People seemed to have forgotten that about 61,000 people died in the US during the 2017-2018 flu season.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-[/b]

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (20% from 21% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (73% from 70% from 76%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:
Current Position (2% of Liquid Assets):-
a. 7500 (Inverse 2x Hang Seng)
b. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (20 from 21 from 30)
Goal: To focus on maximum 20 counters from 4 countries

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 8 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$28.97 from US$21.84 last week from US$23.66 two weeks ago;
Support: US$19.44; US$15; US$13 (1999); Resistance: US$22.50; US$23.50; US$25; US$28.50; US$77 (2018);
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1649 from US$1631 from US$1501;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.18 from US$2.17 from US$2.15;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 2489 from 2541 last week from 2305 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Sold Microsoft (MSFT)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23236 from 23484 from 22805;
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought Cosco Shipping Energy (1138)
d. Sold Cofco Meat (1610)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2765 from 2772 from 2746;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. Bought A50 (2822) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2389 from 2529 from 2411;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17820 from 19389 from 16553;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1331 from 1343 from 1303;
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Mixed (Data from XE.com on Apr 03 @ 6.30PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.50 from 108.66 last week from 110.94 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0359 from 3.0305 from 3.0314;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.6001 from 0.5794 from 0.6309;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.8611 from 0.8681 from 0.8399;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.6153 from 2.6305 from 2.5458;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.0808 from 1.0996 from 1.0760;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7535 from 7.7517 from 7.7564;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.3556 from 4.3443 from 4.3963;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.4349 from 1.4332 from 1.4497;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.0925 from 7.0938 from 7.0963;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2280 from 1.2243 from 1.1660;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.3499 from 5.3189 from 5.1229;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.65 from 99.40 from 102.82;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Caution?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.60% from 0.68% last week from 0.89% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.23% from 0.25% from 0.33%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 92.35 from 93.77 from 86.10;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.16 from 76.83 from 69.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 624 from 569 from 625; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150



The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby investar » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:25 am

winston wrote:TOL @ Apr 05, 2020


So where do we go from here?

Intuitively, I think that the markets would probably not rise significantly, until they have found an effective treatment for the Covid19.

At this point in time, the best brains in the world, are testing about 12 different drugs on this Covid19. It would be just a matter of time before they find an effective treatment for this Covid19.

My base case is that this Covid19 would probably end when the hot weather arrives, around June 2020. That means that the markets should also be trending upwards from June 2020.

In addition, the statistics from China, Japan and Korea, are quite encouraging. Although there are some asymptomatic cases and the fear of a "second wave", things are grinding along slowly and are quietly getting back to normalcy.

The above scenario also ties in with "experts" like Mark Hubert, who feels that the markets would trend upwards from June 1, 2020 (Peak VIX of 85.47 on March 18, 2020 + 75 Days).


Thank you for this insight: peak vix +75days.
I agree with the bigger possibility of another bearish move in the next weeks. Maybe not with the same emotional peaks of volatility, but more salami-like. Earnings season coming up, it will be full of warnings. I took profits in Feb but not up to 20% safe level like you did ;-)
investar
Boss' Left Hand Person
 
Posts: 813
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:59 pm

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:50 am

TOL @ Apr 12, 2020

winter.jpg


Economic Winter Coming?

The US unemployment number reached about 6m this week.

About 17m US workers are now unemployed (out of a workforce of about 165m) and the US unemployment rate is now about 10%.

In comparison, the US unemployment rate during the Great Depression in 1933, was about 25%.

Therefore, we just need another 4 more weeks of 6m unemployed per week, to reach that Great Depression number of 25% unemployment rate.

Four weeks is not really a long time, considering that the incubation period of this Covid 19 is between two weeks to a month and things do take a few months to recover after an epidemic.

Realistically, I think that things will be slow for at least the next 3 months. Therefore, another 24m unemployed people in the US, over the next 3 months, is not too unreasonable and that would bring that unemployment number to match the Great Depression number of about 25%.

That high US unemployment number is also being replicated throughout the world, as almost every country now, has it's own lockdown program.

In view of the above, I cant see how Wall Street cannot divorce itself from Main Street, over an extended period. The unemployment numbers every week and the upcoming profit warnings, will quickly bring the bulls back to earth.

There were also a few articles this week, that mentioned that it's very likely that the previous bottom in the market would be taken out.

Anyway, the Central Banksters and the Plunge Protection Teams (PPT), are throwing whatever they can, to prevent the markets from dropping and to cushion the blows from the high unemployment.

In 2008, the Central Bankers (Fed, ECB, BoJ and PBOC) printed about US$16t to overcome the crisis. For this round, I'm expecting about US$20t to be printed.

I still think that the markets are uninvestable for the next few months unless one is a day trader.

Maybe China will have a "V" shape recovery based on FIFO but China cant exist on it's own when the rest of the world is in a Depression. And the Chinese market was weak this week, when I was expecting it to be rebounding strongly.

I think that this is a good "Selling Opportunity", if one did not managed to sell before the plunge.

At the same time, I need to remind myself not to be too pessimistic either. There will always be a light at the end of the tunnel. (Hopefully, it's not a train coming at you).

I'm expecting Revenues and Earnings to drop by about 40% this year. So any drop in share price now, that is exceeding say 50%, for a company with fairly good fundamentals, should be researched.

This could be a generational buying opportunity but I dont want to use up all my bullets so early in the event, in case this episode can last 1.5 years.

Finally, for those who are celebrating, Happy Easter! Stay safe and stay healthy!


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (21% from 20% last week from 21% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 25% for next 3 months;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (79% from 73% from 70%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:
Current Position:-
a. 7500 (Inverse 2x Hang Seng)
b. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (19 from 20 from 21)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries (4 per country)

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$23.21 from US$28.97 last week from US$21.84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$19.44 (S1); US$15; US$13 (1999); Resistance: US$25; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 30%? How much can it pick up?
b. Supply is up about 20%? Would a 10% cut by OPEC+ be adequate?
c. Price is down about 50%?
d. China is filling it's SPR
e. US is renting their SPR storage out, to the private companies
f. Not too much storage space left on Oil tankers and Railcars
g. Low US$20; High US$45; Mid-Point US$32
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1741 from US$1649 from US$1631;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.27 from US$2.18 from US$2.17;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 2790 from 2489 last week from 2541 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Sold Berkshire Hathaway (BRK,b)
c. Sold Alphabet (GOOG)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24300 from 23236 from 23484;
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought CICC (3908)
d. Bought Cofco Meat (1610)
e. Sold Cosco Shipping Energy (1138)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2799 from 2765 from 2772;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2571 from 2389 from 2529;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19499 from 17820 from 19389;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1331 from 1343 from 1303;
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Apr 10 @ 2.45PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 108.40 from 108.50 last week from 108.66 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0487 from 3.0359 from 3.0305;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.6364 from 0.6001 from 0.5794;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.8988 from 0.8611 from 0.8681;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.7404 from 2.6153 from 2.6305;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.0944 from 1.0808 from 1.0996;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7529 from 7.7535 from 7.7517;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.3061 from 4.3556 from 4.3443;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.4125 from 1.4349 from 1.4332;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.0360 from 7.0925 from 7.0938;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2466 from 1.2280 from 1.2243;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.3686 from 5.3499 from 5.3189;

13. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.44 from 100.65 from 99.40;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.73% from 0.60% last week from 0.68% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Flat; 0.23% from 0.23% from 0.25%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 101.64 from 92.35 from 93.77;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 82.36 from 75.16 from 76.83;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 635 from 624 from 569; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150



The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support, to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:20 am

TOL @ Apr 19, 2020

Reopening.jpg


The Great US Reopening?

Trump has been talking up his "Great Reopening", after he has conceded that he does not have absolute authority on the matter.

And not too long ago, he wanted an "Easter Reopening", which was also quickly shelved.

Anyway, I dont quite understand why the markets are so carried away with his so-called "Great US Reopening".

If the US is not too careful with their "Great Reopening", the Second Wave will hit them, as in Singapore, HK and Japan.

Having said that, the current numbers in New York are encouraging. The "Daily Intubations" number has been declining for the past five days although the daily hospitalisation cases are still quite high.

Therefore, something seems to be working at the New York hospitals. Is it Gilead's Remdesivir? Or maybe Trump's much touted Hyroxychloroquine?

Anyway, I'm not as excited as the markets, about this "Great US Reopening". I think that it will take many months for things to recover eg. Cruise Industry, Airlines, Tourism, Hotels, Restaurants, Concerts, Sporting Events, Luxury Items, Energy, Automobile, Housing, Education etc.

I think that Wall Street has gotten a bit ahead of itself. I still think that the markets are basically uninvestable for a few months although there could be some trading opportunity here and there.

And the Central Banksters and the Plunge Protection Teams will throw whatever they have to reflate the markets. I think that this is a Selling Opportunity if you did not manage to get out before the plunge.

My current strategy is still to "Sell The Rip" and "Don't Buy The Dip".


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (18% from 21% last week from 20% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (99% from 79% from 73%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash: Bought SQQQ;
Current Position:-
a. 7500 (Inverse 2x Hang Seng)
b. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
d. SQQQ (Inverse Nasdaq 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (17 from 19 from 20)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$18.18 from US$23.21 last week from US$28.97 two weeks ago;
Support: US$15; US$13 (1999); Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 30%? With Reopening, +15%?
b. Supply is up about 20%? Current cut -20%?
c. Price is down about 50%? How low can it go?
d. China is filling it's SPR
e. US is renting their SPR storage out, to the private companies
f. Not too much storage space left on Oil tankers and Railcars
g. Low US$18; High US$45; Mid-Point US$31
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1695 from US$1741 from US$1649;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.34 from US$2.27 from US$2.18;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher; 2875 from 2790 last week from 2489 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Bought SQQQ (Inverse 3x Nasdaq)
c. Bought USO (Oil ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24380 from 24300 from 23236;
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought Oil ETF (3175)
c. Sold CICC (3908)
d. Sold Cofco Meat (1610)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2838 from 2799 from 2765;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. Sold A50 ETF (2822)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2615 from 2571 from 2389;
Resistance 3850
a. Sold Haw Par
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19897 from 19499 from 17820;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1407 from 1331 from 1343;
a. Sold Syarikat Takaful
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Mixed (Data from XE.com on Apr 18 @ 10.45PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 107.53 from 108.40 last week from 108.50 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0722 from 3.0487 from 3.0359;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.6364 from 0.6364 from 0.6001;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.9052 from 0.8988 from 0.8611;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.7810 from 2.7404 from 2.6153;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.0871 from 1.0944 from 1.0808;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7509 from 7.7529 from 7.7535;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.3698 from 4.3061 from 4.3556;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.4224 from 1.4125 from 1.4349;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.0731 from 7.0360 from 7.0925;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2510 from 1.2466 from 1.2280;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.4663 from 5.3686 from 5.3499;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.78 from 99.44 from 100.65;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Euphoric?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.64% from 0.73% last week from 0.60% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.20% from 0.23% from 0.23%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 100.13 from 101.64 from 92.35;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 81.09 from 82.36 from 75.16;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 751 from 635 from 624; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150



The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:46 pm

TOL @ Apr 26, 2020

Sell_in_May.png


Sell in May and Go Away?

It's going to be May soon and I'm starting to think about the old agage of selling in May and going away.

In the past, the traders would sell in May because they dont want to have a large position when they go on their Summer holidays.

This year, in addition to the traders going away on summer holidays (if they can), we also have the following:-
1. The traders seems to have stopped accumulating the Nasdaq futures recently
2. The global macro hedge funds remains bearish
3. The global economy is deteriorating rapidly
4. There's still no effective widespread treatment nor testing, for this Covid 19
5. Warmer weather is coming to US and Europe. When things are bad and when the weather gets warmer, there's normally Strikes, Riots, Acts of Terrorism, Social Disorder etc.

My gut feel remains that the markets are uninvestable for the next few months, although, there are some trading opportunities here and there.

At the same time, it may also not pay, to be too bearish. The Central Banksters and the Plunge Protection Teams, are throwing whatever they can at the markets. And the "top minds of the world" are working hard to look for an effective treatment for this Covid19.

Initially, I thought that China may be investable due to FIFO and that they are now reopening. However, I now think that it may take some time for things to recover there, due to the double whammy of Trade War and Covid19.

Over the next few months, China will be hit again from the rhetoric of the US Election, not to mentioned any Second Wave. Valuation is also not that attractive either.

As for the US, about 26m people have already lost their jobs in the past 4 weeks. This far exceeds the 22m jobs that was created since November 2009, the end of the Sub-Prime Crisis.

The unemployment rate in the US is probably about 20%, now compared to 25% during "The Great Depression". However, the S&P 500 is only down 15%, compared to 58% during the "Great Depression". Something is not right somewhere ..

My strategy remains the same:-
1. Sell The Rip
2. Don't Buy The Dip
3. Don't Be Complacent; Things can go south very quickly as in Oil


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (14% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (68%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. 7500 (Inverse 2x Hang Seng)
b. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
d. SQQQ (Inverse Nasdaq 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (16)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$17.19 from US$18.18 last week from US$23.21 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 30%? With Reopening, +15%?
b. Supply is up about 20%? Current cut -20%?
c. Price is down about 50%? How low can it go?
d. China is filling it's SPR
e. US is renting their SPR storage out, to the private companies
f. Not too much storage space left on Oil tankers and Railcars
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1746 from US$1695 from US$1741;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.36 from US$2.34 from US$2.27;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off [(Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower; 2837 from 2875 last week from 2790 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23831 from 24380 from 24300;
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. No Trade
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2809 from 2838 from 2799;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2518 from 2615 from 2571;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19262 from 19897 from 19499;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1370 from 1407 from 1331;
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Mixed (Data from XE.com on Apr 25 @ 9.30AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 107.51 from 107.53 last week from 108.40 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0608 from 3.0722 from 3.0487;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.6393 from 0.6393 from 0.6364;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.9108 from 0.9052 from 0.8988;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.7876 from 2.7810 from 2.7404;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.0792 from 1.0871 from 1.0944;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7505 from 7.7509 from 7.7529;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.3603 from 4.3698 from 4.3061;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.4245 from 1.4224 from 1.4125;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.0818 from 7.0731 from 7.0360;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Lower; 1.2367 from 1.2510 from 1.2466;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Lower; 5.3926 from 5.4663 from 5.3686;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.38 from 99.78 from 99.44;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.61% from 0.64% last week from 0.73% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.22% from 0.20% from 0.23%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.62 from 100.13 from 101.64;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.32 from 81.09 from 82.36;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 665 from 751 from 635; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&start=190


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun May 03, 2020 11:09 am

TOL @ May 3, 2020

Correction.jpg


7 Reasons for a Second Stock Market Crash in 2020

The following is from an article in Money Morning. It gave various reasons why there would be another market crash including:-
1. The Coronavirus Cases Will Surge Again in the Fall / Winter
2. This Rally Is a Bull Trap
3. Small Businesses Are Getting Crushed
4. There's A Big Drop in Stock Buybacks
5. Earnings per Share Can’t Be Trusted
6. Corporate Debt Is at Record Levels
7. We’re at Risk of a New Wave of Mortgage Defaults

By the way, another 3.8m in the US became unemployed this week. The total number of people in the US, that are out of work over the past 6 weeks, now exceeds 30m.

It's very bad on Main Street. However, while Main Street is suffering, Wall Street has been galloping higher, although Wall Street seems to be running out of breath this week.

Anyway, it's as if there's an invincible hand that's pushing Wall Street higher. Theoretically speaking, it's not that difficult to manipulate the US index. If you can control the 6 tech stocks in the US, you can control the index. (In HK, it's only 3 stocks). In the world of "Unlimited QE" (where I expect US$20t to be printed this round), how difficult can that be?

However, over the long run, Wall Street will always reflect Main Street. Ansd if Main Street is not doing well, Wall Street will eventually not do well too.

One can try to manipulate the indices but one cant really fool all the people, all the time. And if one pushes the index too high, it then becomes a Selling (or Shorting) Opportunity which I believed is the case now.

If the Revenue ( and EPS) of the companies is to drop by about 35% this year, why shouldn't it's stock price drop by 35% also?

So why is Wall Street so optimistic that this would be a "V" shape recovery? Why must things return to nomal straight away?

Just look at your own consumption. Would you be taking a Cruise or Flying soon? Would you be staying in a Hotel soon? Would you be going to a Casino soon? Would you be buying a Car or House soon? Would you be going to a Concert or Sporting Event soon? Would you be going to a Restaurant soon? If you are not doing these things, why would other people be doing it if they dont have to?

And why can't there be a Second Wave in the Republican States after their "Great Reopening"? Why can't there be a "Third Wave" this coming Fall / Winter?

In addition, Trump has also given an excuse to the markets this week, to run for the hills. So how would Trump be making China pay for the Covid19?
1. Imposing Sanctions on US Imports?
2. Lifting China's Sovereign Immunity (so that China can be sued)?
3. Cancelling some of the US Debts to China?
4. Preventing the Chinese Banks from using the SWIFT network?
5. Preventing US Funds from investing in Chinese Equities?
6. Preventing Chinese companies from listing in the US?
7. Imposing Sanctions on selected Chinese SOEs?
etc.

I do not have a good feeling of what's happening in the market. Is this the calm before the storm? And if the storm does come, how bad will it be and how long? More importantly, do you have a safe shelter to hunker down, while waiting for the storm to pass?

At the same time, I have some friends who thinks that this is a "Trading Market" and have been buying the dips. Time will tell whether they are correct or whether they got mauled in a Bear Trap.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (13% from 14% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 25%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (74% from 68% last week):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. 7500 (Inverse 2x Hang Seng)
b. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
d. SQQQ (Inverse Nasdaq 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (16 from 16 last week)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 8 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$19.70 from US$17.19 last week from US$18.18 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 30%? With Reopening, +15%?
b. Supply is up about 20%? Current cut -20%?
c. Price is down about 50%? How low can it go?
d. China is filling it's SPR
e. US is renting their SPR storage out, to the private companies
f. Not too much storage space left on Oil tankers and Railcars
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1710 from US$1746 from US$1695;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.31 from US$2.36 from US$2.34;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off/b] [(Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower; 2831 from 2837 last week from 2875 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Sold 1/2 Goldman Sachs (GS)
c. Sold 1/2 Weibo (WB)
d. Sold USO (Oil ETF)
e. Traded XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24644 from 23831 from 24380;
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought CNOOC (0883)
d. Sold Samsung Oil ETF (3175)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2860 from 2860 from 2809;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2624 from 2518 from 2615;
Resistance 3850
a. Bought Silverlake Axis
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19619 from 19262 from 19897;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1408 from 1370 from 1407;
a. Traded Dayang
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


[b]Currencies: Risk-On
(Data from XE.com on May 2 @ 10.30AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 106.92 from 107.51 last week from 107.53 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0357 from 3.0608 from 3.0722;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.6420 from 0.6393 from 0.6393;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
d. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.9087 from 0.9108 from 0.9052;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.7585 from 2.7876 from 2.7810;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1074 from 1.0792 from 1.0871;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7609 from 7.7505 from 7.7509;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Converted some HKD to MYR recently
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.2969 from 4.3603 from 4.3698;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.4154 from 1.4245 from 1.4224;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.0624 from 7.0818 from 7.0731;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2500 from 1.2367 from 1.2510;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.3711 from 5.3926 from 5.4663;

13. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.08 from 100.38 from 99.78;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How long will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.62% from 0.61% last week from 0.64% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.20% from 0.22% from 0.20%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.96 from 96.62 from 100.13;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.68 from 78.32 from 81.09;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 617 from 665 from 751; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Useful References - Blogs, Websites & Forums, etc.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests