Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 02, 2020 3:39 pm

TOL @ August 02, 2020

momentumstocksvsvaluestocks.jpg


Choosing Momemtum Over Value?

On July 5th, I mentioned that I would be trying to move my portfolio, from 99% "Value" based, to about 50% "Momentum".

After about a month, my portfolio has now decreased from 99% "Value" to about 67%.

That means that I have added quite a bit of "Momentum" stocks into my portfolio over the past month.

That also means that I have been taking more risk and avoiding the traditional measures to buy stocks eg. Revenue, Earnings, PEG, Yield, Cash Flows etc.

Therefore, it may be timely, to reflect on my current strategy in view of the various headwinds that we are currently facing eg. Covid19 lockdowns, deteriorating economic conditions, unstable geopolitical situations etc.

In the past, one of the reasons for my buying of "Value" stocks, is to be able to sleep "better" at night. I dont have to worry about whether the company is going under or whether it's business model is not sound. And if the stock exchange is to close for a few weeks, I would know that my counters would probably be still around when it reopens.

In addition, I have also gone through a few crashes eg. Black Monday, Nikkei Plunge, Dot.com, 9/11, Asian Contagion, Sub-Prime Crisis etc and buying "Value" stocks feels safer.

I'm also greatly influenced by the rules of Sir John Templeton:-
1. "All too many investors focus on the market trend or economic outlook".
2. "Buy value not market trends or the economic outlook".

However, in the age of the internet and biotechs, the old rules may not be applicable anymore.

AMZN and some ot the other high flying tech companies, have not been profitable for years, Yet it's share price has been flying to the moon for years. It's Forward PE is now 100 and there are millions of "Robinhoods" who would buy it, without blinking an eye.

Closer to home, Supermax has gone up 10 times in the past few months. And when I tried to "speculate" on the glove makers recently, I was shaken out of my position when they suddenly dropped. I'm starting to understand what Peter Lynch meant that “in the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It's not the brain”.

In view of the above, it's timely to review and refine my trading tactics to the following:-
1. The investment "story" must be "huge". I need bigger fools to buy after me.
2. For "speculations", I must cut my losses after 2 to 3 days and never let it roll over the weekend. Mentally, it would be eating me if I do not cut my losses quickly.
3. For "swing trading" and "position trading", I should have mental stops at 7%. At 25% losses, I need a hard stop. I need to also have a time expiry of about 3 months on any losses.
4. For "winners", I should try to hold on to the winning position but have trailing-stops. In the past, I used to buy on dips and then take quick profits.
5. I must constantly remind myself of the "4 Horsemen of Catastrophic Losses" ie. Arrogance, Ignorance, Fear and Greed.
6. I should reduce my position size in view of my current experiments.

Going back to the markets, the following are my random thoughts:-

1. US:-
Cons: Tech beating expectations again; Covid19 Rolling Lockdowns; Protests; Hurricane Season; Desperate Trump before Election; Bogeyman China;
Pros: Economy contracted by about US$2.5t versus injection of US$10t; Low Interest Rates; Weaker USD; Helicopter Money; Robinhood Traders;

2. China:-
Cons: Trade War; Weak Exports; Rolling Lockdowns; Five Eyes; India;
Pros: Grinding Higher; Covid19 FIFO; Retail Investors; Stimulus Programs

3. HK:-
Cons: Water Torture Stock Markets; Covid 19 Rolling Lockdowns; Weak Retail, Non-Existent Tourism, Weak Commercial Properties;
Pros: Stabilty (Security Law); Low Interest Rates; Delisting of US Listed China Companies; HK Tech Index; IPOs; Stable HKD Currency;


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (23% from 19% last week from 13% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (98% from 96% from 94%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress. (25% from 25% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (25 from 24 from 16)
Goal: To focus on maximum 20 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: Progress; 66% from 65% from 89% Value Stocks.
Goal: To increase exposure to 50%


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. $40.44 from $41.34 last week from $40.59 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1971 from US$1900 from US$1812;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.86 from US$2.89 from US$2.90;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher; 3271 from 3216 last week from 3225 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Bought GDX (Gold Miners ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24595 from 24705 from 25089;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. Bought Zhaojin (1818)
d. Bought ASM Pacific (0522)
e. Sold SMIC (0981)
f. Sold CICC (3908)
g. Sold Yeahka (9923)
h. Traded Fosun Pharma (2196)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3310 from 3197 from 3214;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2530 from 2580 from 2618;
Resistance 3850
a. Added to Wilmar

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 21710 from 22752 from 22696;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1604 from 1590 from 1596;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Added to MUI Properties
c. Traded Bursa


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Jul 31 @ 2.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 104.36 from 106.00 last week from 107.13 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0960 from 3.0782 from 3.0682;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
b. Converted some SGD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7225 from 0.7088 from 0.6990;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.9895 from 0.9818 from 0.9726;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 3.0638 from 3.0224 from 2.9843;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)
b. Converted some AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1898 from 1.1615 from 1.1396;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7501 from 7.7511 from 7.7536;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.2400 from 4.2641 from 4.2700;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3696 from 1.3853 from 1.3913;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9892 from 7.0157 from 6.9975;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3136 from 1.2766 from 1.2550;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.5702 from 5.4428 from 5.3568;

13. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.68 from 94.57 from 96.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How long will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.53% from 0.57% last week from 0.60% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.12% from 0.15% from 0.15%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 105.95 from 104.88 from 103.22;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 85.23 from 84.52 from 83.29;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1348 from 1388 from 1699; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 09, 2020 3:59 pm

TOL @ August 09, 2020

Buy First.jpg


Buy First, Investigate Later?

The markets have been grinder higher.

For some counters, they have gone parabolic eg. "junior glove makers" and "gold themed" counters in Malaysia. (These counters can easily fly 100% in 3 days).

And for those "parabolic" stocks, the strategy among the inexperienced speculators, seemed to be "Buy First, Investigate Later".

By the way, I have had friends and relatives who have asked me, whether they should chase a stock after it has gone up 50%. They seemed to believe that there would be a bigger fool to buy it from them the next day. And for some counters, they did make 30% the next day!

Incidentally, Cramer was commenting on CNBC that one should never understimate the enthusiasm of people who do not know what they're doing.

So who ends up being the bigger fool?
1. The guy who chased after the 50% rise and made another 30% or
2. The guy who is afraid of chasing because he has researched the business model, estimate the PEG, Revenue etc

Intuitively, I think that one can set aside a small amount of money, say 10%, for "pure speculation", if one is having a FOMO emotion. This money can be used to chase "parabolic" stocks, penny stocks, high risk stocks etc.

The only requirement is that one needs to manage one's "Position Size", have a "Trailing Stop-Loss" and "Time Limit".

For the "cocky inexperienced player", I normally won't stop them from the "Buy First, Investigate Later" strategy. When they do get burnt then maybe they will learn some humility, as well as have more motivation to learn about the "proper" ways of investing.

Coming back to the markets. Trump has finally signed his EO on Tik Tok and We Chat although Pompeo had mentioned two days earlier that they would also be targetting the Cloud Players eg. Alibaba, China Mobile, China Telecom and Baidu. Does that mean that there would be another EO on the Cloud Players later?

And coming back to the EO on WeChat, what is the implication of in for Tencent? What does the EO means that "US companies are not allowed to have any dealings with Tencent"? Can US Fund Managers buy the shares of Tencent? And must they divest their existing holdings in Tencent like Rusal?

As I have anticipated and sold Tencent a few days ago, I have bought back Tencent on Friday. That's my "Buy First, Investigate Later" strategy. Hopefully, it will not turned out to be a "Buy First, Regret Later" strategy.

Finally, the US and China will be having a video conference on Aug 15 to review the progress of their Phase 1 deal. It would definitely be a very awkward video conference as:-
1. The US has just signed this EO (Tik Tok & Wechat) and
2. The US has broadcasted the Taiwan trip of their Health Secretary
Luckily, they are having a video conference else it could end up as a fist-fight.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (25% from 23% last week from 19% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (93% from 98% from 96%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - Progress. (26% from 25% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (23 from 25 from 24)
Goal: To focus on maximum 20 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: Progress; 57% from 66% Value Stocks.
Goal: To increase exposure to 50%


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. $41.56 from $40.44 last week from $41.34 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2036 from US$1971 from US$1900;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.79 from US$2.86 from US$2.89;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher; 3351 from 3271 last week from 3216 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Bought DDX (Becton Dickson & Company)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24532 from 24595 from 24705;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. Bought CK Asset
d. Bought Fosun Pharma
e. Bought Soho China
f. Traded Tencent
g. Sold AliBaba
h. Sold HKEX
g. Sold JD.com
h. Sold Meituan
i, Sold Zhaojin
j. Sold 1/2 ASM Pacific

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3354 from 3310 from 3197;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. Aold A50 (2822) listed in HK

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2546 from 2530 from 2580;
Resistance 3850
a. Bought JMH
b. Bought Keppel
c. Bought SGX
d. Traded Wilmar

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 22330 from 21710 from 22752;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1578 from 1604 from 1590;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Sold MUI Properties



Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 8 @ 8.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 105.92 from 104.36 last week from 106.00 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0507 from 3.0960 from 3.0782;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7158 from 0.7225 from 0.7088;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
d. Comverted all my AUD to USD, SGD and MYR; not vested anymore
e. No longer monitoring "AUD to MYR" and "AUD to SGD"
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1786 from 1.1898 from 1.1615;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7505 from 7.7501 from 7.7511;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1875 from 4.2400 from 4.2641;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3727 from 1.3696 from 1.3853;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9675 from 6.9892 from 7.0157;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3055 from 1.3136 from 1.2766;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.4670 from 5.5702 from 5.4428;

11. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 93.44 from 92.68 from 94.57;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How long will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - FOMO?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.53% from 0.57% last week from 0.60% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.12% from 0.15% from 0.15%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 105.88 from 105.95 from 104.88;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 85.17 from 85.23 from 84.52;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1501 from 1348 from 1388; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 16, 2020 3:26 pm

TOL @ August 16, 2020

answers.jpg


If You Know All The Answers, You Probably Don't Know The Questions

The above quote is from Sir John Templeton.

It's timely to remind myself of the above quote because in my daily discussions with my friends and relatives, there are one or two characters, who think that they have all the answers to everything.

And if they happened to be also be making money on their investment ideas, they would think that they are "stock-market gods" and it's not due to their good luck.

This also refers to myself. I have a tendency to think that I'm pretty good at investments and if I do make money, I would think that it's due to my own research & analysis and not just dumb luck.

Therefore, there's a need for me to constantly remind myself, to check what else I am missing and to know what is my exit strategy should things go horribly wrong.

And if I cant exit my investment, is my position size acceptable, that I wont be hurt badly by that bad decision?

Warren Buffett also had a similar quote on this issue. He mentioned that "if you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy".

The above quote is very timely for me. In my quest to move my portfolio from "Value" to "Momentum", I have taken on a lot more risks as I'm now ignoring the traditional measures of valuation eg. PEG, EPS Growth, Business Moat etc. In addition, I'm not even looking at the charts either ie. Resistance, Support, RSI etc.

And over the past few weeks, I have been speculating in:-
1. High PE and money-losing Techs
2. High PE and money-losing Pharmaceuticals
3. Glovemakers that have soared > 1000% in a few months
4. Gold Miners that are trading at 9 year highs
5. High-Risk Penny Stocks
etc.

And in a bull-market, you do feel like a "stock-market god" when you are making money, without looking at the Fundamentals or the Charts.

So it's also timely to remind myself of another quote:-
"Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident".

As for the markets, there's nothing much on the horizon:-
1. The review of Phase 1 was supposedly postponed. Kudlow did say some nice words about China.
2. Trump will continue to be throwing his tantrum like a small little boy
3. US Earnings Season is getting boring
4. The US Market continues to believe that the Liquidity created (US$10t), is adequate to support the markets, as the economic contraction is only US$2.5t currently
5. Rolling Lock-Downs will continue


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (23% from 25% last week from 23% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (90% from 93% from 98%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - Worse (25% from 26% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (22 from 23 from 25)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: Progress; 50% from 57% from 66% Value Stocks.
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum achieved; Next Goal is 65% Momentum


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$42.23 from $41.56 last week from $40.44 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1954 from US$2036 from US$1971;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.86 from US$2.79 from US$2.86;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher; 3373 from 3351 last week from 3271 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25183 from 24532 from 24595;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. Added to Soho China
d. Sold 1/2 Cosco Shipping Energy
e. Sold CK Asset
f. Sold Tencent
g. Traded WH Group

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3360 from 3354 from 3310;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2581 from 2546 from 2530;
Resistance 3850
a. Traded JMH
b. Traded JSH
c. Traded Riverstone
d. Sold Wilmar

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23289 from 22330 from 21710;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1565 from 1578 from 1604;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Bought MUI Properties
c. Bought Supermax
d. Bought Top Gloves
e. Bought Gabungan AQRS
f. Sold Green Packet


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Aug 14 @ 9.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 106.58 from 105.92 last week from 104.36 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0576 from 3.0507 from 3.0960;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7155 from 0.7158 from 0.7225;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1819 from 1.1786 from 1.1898;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7505 from 7.7505 from 7.7501;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD means that money is still flowing into HK
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1939 from 4.1875 from 4.2400;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3716 from 1.3727 from 1.3696;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9499 from 6.9675 from 6.9892;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3124 from 1.3055 from 1.3136;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.5044 from 5.4670 from 5.5702;

11. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 93.14 from 93.44 from 92.68;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How long will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - FOMO?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.71% from 0.53% last week from 0.57% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.16% from 0.12% from 0.15%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 104.63 from 105.88 from 105.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 84.23 from 85.17 from 85.23;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1577 from 1501 from 1348; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:52 pm

TOL @ August 23, 2020

Caution.jpg


Time To Be Cautious?

The markets have been grinding higher and some "experts" are saying that it's time to be cautious.

They gave a few convincing reasons including:-
1. US markets tend to be weak after the US Labor Day weekend (Sep 7)
2. US earning's season is almost over
3. US Presidential Election is coming up and with a desperate Trump, there could be some nasty surprises.
4. Covid19 is getting worse in the US. And instead of trying to control it, the Trump Administration finds it productive to continue to blame China even after being aware of the disease for at least 7 months now. (Personally, I have now been switching channels whenever I see Trump, Pence, Navarro and Kudlow on TV. So full of baloney).
5. Delisting of China listed shares in the US is a real risk
6. Expanding the ban on Huawei, Tik Tok and Wechat to Alibaba, Tencent etc is a real risk.
7. Depreciation of the USD is a real risk
8. Inflation may spike up suddenly, starting with Food, Commodities etc.

And the other side of the story would include:-
1. There's always something to worry about - Peter Lynch
2. The US economy contracted only US$2.5t compared to the Liquidity created of US$10t. Sp there's an excess of US$7.5t floating in the system.
3. Window Dressing as of September 30, is coming up
4. Trump will continue to provide liquidity to the economy through Executive Orders
5. The Feds will continue to throw "helicopter money"
6. Interest rates will continue to be low
7. The enthusiasm of "fools" will continue to provide liquidity to the markets
8. Inflation is not a "clear and present danger" yet

Intuitively, I think that we may be entering an "orange" zone for the markets. Hence, I have been trying to control my purchases. However, it is very difficult to be cautious when everyone around you are behaving like "Robinhoods".

Therefore, if I want to play in this type of market, I will need to watch my Position Size, Asset Allocation, Trailing Stop-Loss etc. and try to run as soon as someone shout "fire"'.

Finally, there's nothing much happening in the markets except for:-
1. Review of Phase 1 of Trade War. Didn't Trump called it off last week? So why call it off and then want to talk again this week?
2. Review of Malaysian Government Securities in the FTSE Russell Government Bond Index in September


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (28% from 25% last week from 25% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (92% from 90% from 93%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - Worse (25% from 26% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (24 from 22 from 23)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: Progress; 53% from 50% from 57% Value Stocks.
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum achieved; Next Goal is 65% Momentum


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$42.30 from US$42.23 last week from $41.56 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1948 from US$1954 from US$2036;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.93 from US$2.86 from US$2.79;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher; 3397 from 3373 last week from 3351 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25114 from 25183 from 24532;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. Bought AIA
d. Bought China Life
e. Bought Sunny Optical

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3381 from 3360 from 3354;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2529 from 2581 from 2546;
Resistance 3850
a. Bought Hotel Properties Limited
b. Bought Wilmar

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 22920 from 23289 from 22330;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1577 from 1565 from 1578;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Traded MUI Properties


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 21 @ 8.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 105.86 from 106.58 last week from 105.92 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0492 from 3.0576 from 3.0507;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Strong; 0.7157 from 0.7155 from 0.7158;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1775 from 1.1819 from 1.1786;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7501 from 7.7505 from 7.7505;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD means that money is still flowing into HK
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1939 from 4.1875 from 4.2400;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3708 from 1.3716 from 1.3727;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9245 from 6.9499 from 6.9675;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3104 from 1.3124 from 1.3055;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.4773 from 5.5044 from 5.4670;

11. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 93.33 from 93.14 from 93.44;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How long will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - FOMO?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.628% from 0.71% last week from 0.53% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.14% from 0.16% from 0.12%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 105.15 from 104.63 from 105.88;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 84.75 from 84.23 from 85.17;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1518 from 1577 from 1501; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:35 am

TOL @ August 30, 2020

September.jpg


New Money From The New Month

It's going to be a new month soon and new money would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, we should see a spike in the markets next week. Thereafter, I'm not expecting the markets to be that strong until Window Dressing season, closer to the end of the September.

In addition, there's probably not many catalysts left from the US Earnings Season for the US Stock Market.

By the way, the Dow would be undergoing some changes tomorrow. The weighting of AAPL would drop from about 12% to about 3%. This is because the Dow is a price weighted index and AAPL would be having a stock split. In addition, three candidates in the Dow would be changed.

I'm not sure of the consequences of these changes in the Dow but I would certainly be monitoring things.

As for HK, the HKD has been very strong lately. That means a lot of foreign funds are flowing into HK, maybe for the application of the various IPOs eg. Ant Financial, Yum China etc. With all the new IPOs in HK, I'm not sure whether the other HK stocks can do well.

As for Malaysia, I'm not expecting Malaysian Government Securities to be excluded from the FTSE Russell World Government Bond Index next month. If they are actually excluded, then Malaysian interest rates will have to spike up, which would be a disaster for the fragile Malaysian economy.

Finally, I'm trying to remind myself to be a bit careful. The US markets have already risen about 46% from the March low and I think that the easy money has already being made.

However, I always seemed to have some idea to trade and it's not the best of times to be trading when things are euphoric.

You never know when things will hit an air pocket and suddenly gap down eg. the recent 25% decline in the Malaysian Glove Makers, the sudden drop in the USD, the sudden US$160 decline in Gold etc.

It's a dangerous time to be chasing after any investment idea.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (29% from 28% last week from 25% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (92% from 92% from 90%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress (25% from 26% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (23 from 24 from 22)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: Progress; 56% from 53% from 50% Value Stocks.
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum achieved; Next Goal is 65% Momentum


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$42.96 from US$42.30 last week from US$42.23 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1973 from US$1948 from US$1954;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$3.01 from US$2.93 from US$2.86;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher; 3508 from 3397 last week from 3373 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25422 from 25114 from 25183;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. Sold AIA

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3404 from 3381 from 3360;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2540 from 2529 from 2581;
Resistance 3850
a. Sold Hotel Properties Limited

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 22920 from 23289 from 22330;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1525 from 1577 from 1565;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Bought Hume Industries
b. Traded MUI Properties


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Aug 28 @ 1.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 106.29 from 105.86 last week from 106.58 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0624 from 3.0492 from 3.0576;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the coming Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7294 from 0.7157 from 0.7155;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1868 from 1.1775 from 1.1819;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7497 from 7.7501 from 7.7505;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD means that money is still flowing into HK
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1745 from 4.1939 from 4.1875;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3630 from 1.3708 from 1.3716;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.8764 from 6.9245 from 6.9499;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3264 from 1.3104 from 1.3124;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.5368 from 5.4773 from 5.5044;

11. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.67 from 93.33 from 93.14;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How long will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - FOMO?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.79% from 0.63% last week from 0.71% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.16% from 0.14% from 0.16%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 105.72 from 105.15 from 104.63;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 85.08 from 84.75 from 84.23;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1504 from 1518 from 1577; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
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Posts: 118522
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:41 am

TOL @ Sep 06, 2020

Sell.jpg


Sell First, Investigate Later?

Now that the US Techs are starting to drop like flies, are the Robinhoods starting to sell first and investigate later?

Intuitively, I think that the inexperienced Robinhoods do not know how to cut losses. So the selling recently must be from the machines and experienced players.

As mentioned last week, the US Labor Day weekend is a traditionally dangerous time of the year for the markets.

And since the US markets have been weak on Thursday and Friday, I think that it'll probably be quite weak next week too.

Maybe that's because because everyone would be talking about how much they are losing this US holiday weekend.

So when the US markets open next week, there would be a lot of frighthened players especially the retirees, who would be trying to get out.

If the plunge is steep, I may start to nibble again. However, I think that the markets will have to go through a "M" first before it can reach the March lows. This is because there are still some Cash on the sidelines.

Therefore, I would probably be taking my time to nibble as there are still so many things to worry about including:-
1. Technicals: Tracking the Crash of 2009
2. Earnings; Will there be a substantial pullback in earnings?
3. Covid19; Rolling Lockdowns; Would the Vaccine be safe?
4. China; Trade War & Cold War; How would China be retaliating? USD Sell-off?
5. Unemployment Stimulus; Continued wrangling
6. US Presidential Election; Lies, Half-Truths and Nonsense
7. Inflation; Debasing of USD; Food, Commdities; Higher Wages (Competing with Government Hand-Outs);
8. Currency Wars
9. Natural Disasters: Typhoon Season, Fires, Earthquakes, Tsunami etc
10. Riots, Terrorism, Armed Extremists: Weather still warm for some trouble
11. War; Electromagnetic Pulse Attack; Cybersecurity


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (29% from 29% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (88% from 92% from 92%):
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress (25% from 26% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (23 from 24 from 22)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: No Progress; 50% from 56% from 53% Value Stocks.
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum achieved; Next Goal is 65% Momentum


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$39.50 from US$42.96 last week from US$42.30 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1941 from US$1973 from US$1948;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$3.08 from US$3.01 from US$2.93;
a. Copper Inventory at LME at 15 year lows
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower; 3427 from 3508 last week from 3397 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Bought IBB (Biotech ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24695 from 25422 from 25114;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. Sold China Life

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3356 from 3404 from 3381;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2510 from 2540 from 2529;
Resistance 3850
a. Bought Riverstone
b. Bought Jardine Matheson

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23205 from 22920 from 23289;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1516 from 1525 from 1577;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Sold MNRB
c. Traded MUI Properties


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 04 @ 3.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 106.13 from 106.29 last week from 105.86 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0405 from 3.0624 from 3.0492;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7275 from 0.7294 from 0.7157;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1844 from 1.1868 from 1.1775;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7497 from 7.7501 from 7.7505;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD means that money is still flowing into HK
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1490 from 4.1745 from 4.1939;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3645 from 1.3630 from 1.3708;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.8419 from 6.8764 from 6.9245;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3279 from 1.3264 from 1.3104;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.5091 from 5.5368 from 5.4773;

11. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.86 from 92.67 from 93.33;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Confused?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.64% from 0.79% last week from 0.63% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.13% from 0.16% from 0.14%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 105.36 from 105.72 from 105.15;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 84.72 from 85.08 from 84.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1395 from 1504 from 1518; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
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Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:47 pm

TOL @ Sep 12, 2020

waiting.jpg


Waiting

The markets were weak and I reminded myself of the following advice by William O'Neill:-

"Market Direction is of utmost importance and one should not buy if the markets are down > 0.3% for a few days in a row, as 3 out 4 stocks do follow the Market Direction".

Having said that, I did trade Supermax twice as I felt that it's plunge was a bit overdone. Luckily, I did made money both times.

Therefore, an investment rule is only an advice and not to be followed blindly. One must adjust it for "special situations" especially when one is a short-term trader. And Luck is always in the picture.

Maybe if one is a mid-term investor, then one should not be buying when the markets are weak.

Anyway, it's very likely that I wont be doing much trading until the market stabilises and when valuation is more acceptable.

However, whenever I see 50% retracement on a "brand-name" stock, then it's very likely that I may trade it, especially if I think that it's fundmamentals is intact.

On the horizon, "Window Dressing" season is not too far away. And at the same time, we also have "Options Expiration" coming up.

So where do we go from here?

Intuitively, I think that the markets may be a bit volatile for the next few weeks. Therefore, I need to remind myself to sell any rip and not to buy any more dips and to be a bit more careful going forward.

Consensus is that this is a correction in a bull market and is not the start of bear market.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (28% from 29% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (87% from 88% from 92%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress (25% from 26% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (23 from 23 from 24)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: No Progress; 50% from 50% from 56% Value Stocks.
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum achieved; Next Goal is 65% Momentum


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$37.38 from US$39.50 last week from US$42.96 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1948 from US$1941 from US$1973;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$3.04 from US$3.08 from US$3.01;
a. Copper Inventory at LME at 15 year lows
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower; 3341 from 3427 last week from 3508 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24503 from 24695 from 25422;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3260 from 3356 from 3404;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2490 from 2510 from 2540;
Resistance 3850
a. Traded Riverstone

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23406 from 23205 from 22920;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1505 from 1516 from 1525;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Traded Supermax
c. Traded MUI Properties


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 11 @ 2.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 106.17 from 106.13 last week from 106.29 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.0404 from 3.0405 from 3.0624;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.7279 from 0.7275 from 0.7294;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1835 from 1.1844 from 1.1868;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7504 from 7.7497 from 7.7501;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD means that money is still flowing into HK
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1566 from 4.1490 from 4.1745;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3672 from 1.3645 from 1.3630;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.8368 from 6.8419 from 6.8764;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2818 from 1.3279 from 1.3264;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.3288 from 5.5091 from 5.5368;

11. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 93.26 from 92.86 from 92.67;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Confused?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.69% from 0.64% last week from 0.79% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.14% from 0.13% from 0.16%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 104.81 from 105.36 from 105.72;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 84.28 from 84.72 from 85.08;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1269 from 1395 from 1504; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:33 am

TOL @ Sep 20, 2020

Windows Dressing.jpg


Window Dressing?

The markets have not gone anywhere for the past week and the short-term traders are now hoping for Window Dressing activities, to liven things up.

As for myself, I'm starting to think that it may be a good time to sell, should those Window Dressing activities materialise.

This is because I always have a "funny feeling" about October, not to mentioned that it's "Halloween" month.

Maybe it's the continuation of that "funny feeling" from the Chinese "7th Ghost Month".

Or maybe it's because I encountered my first stock market crash, "Black Monday", on October 19th, 1987 and it has been anchored into my psyche ever since.

It's also about 1.5 months to the US Presidential Election and they would be spouting more nonsense soon.

And Covid19 is still with us, together with Massive Unemployment and Bankruptcies, Wildfires, Typhoons and Riots.

For the horizon, I'm keeping my eyes on the following:-
1. Continuation of MGS in the FTSE Russell World Bond Index?
2. Sabah Election: Sep 26
3. First US Presidential Debate: Sep 29
4. Window Dressing: Sep 30


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (24% from 28% last week from 29% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (91% from 87% from 88%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To have a sizable Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress (25% from 26% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (20 from 23 from 23)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: No Progress; 50% from 50% from 50% Value Stocks.
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum achieved; Next Goal is 65% Momentum


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$40.97 from US$37.38 last week from US$39.50 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
c. China is filling it's SPR
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1958 from US$1948 from US$1941;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$3.11 from US$3.04 from US$3.08;
a. Copper Inventory at LME at 15 year lows
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower; 3319 from 3341 last week from 3427 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Sold IBB (Biotech ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24455 from 24503 from 24695;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3338 from 3260 from 3356;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2498 from 2490 from 2510;
Resistance 3850
a. Sold Jardine Matheson

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23360 from 23406 from 23205;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1507 from 1505 from 1516;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Loan Moratorium expiring Sept 30th
b. Sold Hume Industries


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Sep 18 @ 12.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 104.81 from 106.17 last week from 106.13 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.0440 from 3.0404 from 3.0405;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7319 from 0.7279 from 0.7275;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1850 from 1.1835 from 1.1844;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7501 from 7.7504 from 7.7497;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD: Money flowing into HK, possibly for the IPOs
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1275 from 4.1566 from 4.1490;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3559 from 1.3672 from 1.3645;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.7558 from 6.8368 from 6.8419;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2958 from 1.2818 from 1.3279;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.3490 from 5.3288 from 5.5091;

11. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 92.91 from 93.26 from 92.86;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Confused?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.68% from 0.69% last week from 0.64% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Flat; 0.14% from 0.14% from 0.13%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 105.16 from 104.81 from 105.36;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 84.50 from 84.28 from 84.72;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1294 from 1269 from 1395; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 27, 2020 2:16 pm

TOL @ Sep 27, 2020

October.jpg


New Money From The New Month

It will be a new month soon and there would be new money flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, I'm expecting the markets to spike up next week.

In addition, we will also be hitting the last days of 3Q Window Dressing and there could be some last minute buying.

After next week, I'm expecting the markets to be a bit choppy, in view of the US Presidential Election.

That does not mean that the White House, will not be doing their best to keep the markets elevated before the election.

As mentioned, if the markets does spike up strongly, I may use the opportunity to reduce some of my Equities position.

For next week, we have the following:-
1. Malaysia: Events following the Sabah Election
2. Malaysia: Anwar's PM journey
3. US: First US Presidential Debate on Sep 29
4. Window Dressing: Sep 30


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (27% from 24% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (92% from 91% from 87%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No Progress (25% from 26% from 25%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (22 from 20 from 23)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: 74% Value Stocks. (Reclassification)
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum Stocks


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$40.05 from US$40.97 last week from US$37.38 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1864 from US$1958 from US$1948;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.98 from US$3.11 from US$3.04;
a. Copper Inventory at LME at 15 year lows
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower; 3298 from 3319 last week from 3341 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23235 from 24455 from 24503;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. Bought China Life

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3219 from 3338 from 3260;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 2472 from 2498 from 2490;
Resistance 3850
a. Added to Wilmar

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23205 from 23360 from 23406;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1509 from 1507 from 1505;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Loan Moratorium expiring Sept 30th
b. Bought MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 25 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 105.25 from 104.81 last week from 106.17 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0306 from 3.0440 from 3.0404;
a. Will they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7069 from 0.7319 from 0.7279;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1669 from 1.1850 from 1.1835;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7500 from 7.7501 from 7.7504;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD: Money flowing into HK, possibly for the IPOs
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1667 from 4.1275 from 4.1566;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3747 from 1.3559 from 1.3672;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out;
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.8179 from 6.7558 from 6.8368;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2767 from 1.2958 from 1.2818;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.3214 from 5.3490 from 5.3288;

11. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 94.26 from 92.91 from 93.26;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Confused?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.67% from 0.68% last week from 0.69% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Flat; 0.14% from 0.14% from 0.14%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 103.18 from 105.16 from 104.81;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 83.10 from 84.50 from 84.28;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1605 from 1294 from 1269; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

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viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:38 am

TOL @ Oct 4, 2020

Trading Break.jpg


Trading Break

The US Presidential Election is about a month away so it's time to take a trading break.

There are too many moving parts and it's mentally quite tiring, trying to anticipate what a desperate man would be doing.

The First Presidential Debate a few days ago, was a complete disaster. Hopefully, the VP Debate would be better.

Anyway, I've been too close to the forest for the past few weeks, that I cant see the trees anymore. A Trading Break would help allow me to see the various market factors in a better perspective.

That does not mean that I won't be trading any convincing story. If one does appear, I would still be looking at it.

However, I wont be glued to my computer anymore during trading hours. Hopefully, there wont be any lockdown, to prevent me from going out, over the next few weeks.

For next week, I will be watching:-
1. Malaysia: When is Anwar meeting the King?
2. US: Oct 7 - VP Debate
3. Armenia-Azerbaijan War; Who are the players and will it escalate?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (29% from 27% last week from 24% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (88% from 92% from 91%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (22 from 22 from 20)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks: No Progress; 75% from 74% Value Stocks.
Goal: Exposure to 50% Momentum Stocks


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 9 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 9 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 9 (Safe 1: Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 55 out of 70 (79%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$36.97 from US$40.05 last week from US$40.97 two weeks ago;
Support: Resistance: US$29; US$45 (R1); US$77 (2018);
a. Demand is down about 20%?
b. Supply is up about 15%?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1904 from US$1864 from US$1958;
Support: $1240; $1050; Resistance: $1775; $1830;
a. They cant print gold
b. Gold will probably rally after the current physical selling
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. Is Silver a better bet due to the current high Gold/Silver ratio?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.98 from US$2.98 from US$3.11;
a. Copper Inventory at LME at 15 year lows
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher; 3348 from 3298 last week from 3319 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 2820; 2740; 1930 (2016); Resistance: 3385
b. Bought SLV

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23459 from 23235 from 24455;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 25400; 26800; 28000; 29000; 31600;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3218 from 3219 from 3338;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2496 from 2472 from 2498;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23030 from 23205 from 23360;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
e. With the stronger Yen, would the Nikkei be correcting?
f. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1500 from 1509 from 1507;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Short-Selling ban extended to Dec 31, 2020
b. Loan Moratorium expiring Sept 30th
b. Sold MY.EG


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Oct 2 @ 10.50 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 105.60 from 105.25 last week from 104.81 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Umlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0459 from 3.0306 from 3.0440;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7162 from 0.7069 from 0.7319;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1717 from 1.1669 from 1.1850;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7499 from 7.7500 from 7.7501;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Strong HKD: Money flowing into HK, possibly for the IPOs
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1609 from 4.1667 from 4.1275;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3661 from 1.3747 from 1.3559;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.7905 from 6.8179 from 6.7558;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.2858 from 1.2767 from 1.2958;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.3500 from 5.3214 from 5.3490;

11. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 93.86 from 94.26 from 92.91;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
b. Will they be removing the property curbs?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Confused?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.67% from 0.67% last week from 0.68% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.13% from 0.14% from 0.14%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 104.15 from 103.18 from 105.16;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 83.83 from 83.10 from 84.50;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1725 from 1605 from 1294; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

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