Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby investar » Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:59 am

Thank you for your insights, Winston, and best wishes for 2020!
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:24 am

TOL @ Jan 12, 2020

Earnings.jpg


US 4Q Earnings

It's US Earnings Season and the "experts" are saying that we would beat the low expectations again.

That means that the current PE of 18.5 on the S&P 500 is still not very expensive yet. And that also means that one could maybe still buy, to front-run the coming earning season.

As for myself, I think that it's a bit dangerous to chase things at this point in time. The market has had a good run and everyone in the world knows that earnings expectations are always dialled down, so that the companies could easily beat them later,

Everyone become a hero in the process ie. CEO, Analyst, Fund Manager etc. and this game is played every quarter. Almost everyone makes money off it.

In addition to 4Q US Earnings Season, we also have the following:-
1. Impeachment Circus
2. Signing of Phase One on Jan 15
3. Iran
4. JPM Healthcare Congerence

My position has not changed from a few weeks ago. Discipline now is of utmost importance and I will only buy if the story is very convincing.

And I need to always check on the accuracy of my information. This is because I have seen some friends and relatives, who have invested based on wrong facts and poor judgement, over the years including:-
1. Chasing a Malaysian O&G company after it has gone up 500% in a year and hoping to catch the next 20%. My relative put his money in this counter just because an "expert" was writing a lot of articles on it in his blog. My relative did not know that this "expert" also lost MYR64m on a previous counter which this "expert" was also pushing hard.
2. Buying a company based on discounted RNAV without taking into consideration the company's huge Debt load
3. Buying Biotech companies without understanding anything about them
4. Buying Crypto Currencies just because they "think" that it's going to be the future. One guy even told me that Bitcoin is 99.99% "pure" without knowing what he's talking about.
5. Buying Junk Bonds because Equities is now "expensive". Someone I know has already lost a lot of money on the bonds of Hyflux and Noble, two so called "blue chips" in Singapore
6. Investing in Oversea Properties without understanding their local conditions. If those oversea properties were so great, why do they need to launch it in your hometown? Wouldn't they be snapped up by the locals straight away? And what about the cost of the transaction eg. lawyer's fees, agent's commission, stamp duty, restrictions on overseas investors etc? Sometimes, one need to have at least a 25% capital gain just to break even on the transaction.
7. Buying a HK property at sky high prices just before the HK protests
8. Buying a UK Property at sky high prices just before Brexit
9. Buying a Singapore Property at sky high prices in Sentosa and losing 40% on it already.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Net Exposure To Equities: Neutral (14% from 16% last week, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next recession (2021?); Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (92%)
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - Added to 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (13 from 13 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 16 counters from 4 countries with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 7 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk Off (Data from Commodities Live on Jan 11 @ 2.00 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$59.12 from US$63.03 last week from US$59.77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1563 from US$1555 from US$1480;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.81 from US$2.78 from US$2.78;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

4. I'm no longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 3265 from 3235 last week from 3240 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: 3260; PE 20;
b. Traded OILD (Inverse Oil 3x)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28638 from 28452 from 28225;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Added to 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3092 from 3084 from 3005;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3255 from 3239 from 3227;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23851 from 23657 from 23838;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1591 from 1611 from 1611;
a. Added to IGB
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 11 @ 2.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 109.43 from 108.08 last week from 109.54 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0227 from 3.0383 from 3.0519;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6901 from 0.6952 from 0.6950;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.9308 from 0.9384 from 0.9408;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.8135 from 2.8507 from 2.8711;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weakaer. 1.1116 from 1.1159 from 1.1118;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7664 from 7.7790 from 7.7864;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. Will HK be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0766 from 4.1004 from 4.1308;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3487 from 1.3498 from 1.3537;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9194 from 6.9655 from 6.9968;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3064 from 1.3083 from 1.2994;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.3256 from 5.3650 from 5.3680;
a. Converted some GBP to MYR after the UK election

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.36 from 96.84 from 97.44;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.85% from 1.79% last week from 1.90% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 1.58% from 1.52% from 1.62%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 110.09 from 109.90 from 109.60;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 88.36 from 88.22 from 87.96;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 772 from 907 from 1090; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:14 pm

TOL @ Jan 19, 2020

Buy First, Investigate Later?

soros (2).jpg


The markets have been strong over the past few weeks and the "Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)" attitude is very prevalent among my relatives and friends.

Some have resorted to buying on just rumors, without doing any research. Others have a strong need to buy something everyday (like chickens running around, with their heads cut off ie. no brains).

This types of complacement attitude never ends well. In the meantime, they think that I'm an "idiot" for not joining the party.

In times like this, it's very important for one to stay disciplined. One should only trade when there's a good set-up. In addition, one needs to also watch one's Position Size and Trailing Stop-Loss.

I dont know how long this party can go on. My guess is till 2H 2021. In the meantime, there could be some corrections (which may proved good buying opportunity) unless you have a "Black Swan" event that can derail everything eg. Wuhan Sars, Iran War, Phase Two rhetoric etc.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Impeachment Circus
2. Jan 20: World Economic Forum, Davos; Banksters are all there;
3. Jan 23: ECB Meeting; non-event?
4. Jan 28: FOMC Meeting; Not expecting a rate cut
5. Jan 31: Brexit

My position has not change. I will continue to trade but only if there's a good set-up with a very convincing story.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Net Exposure To Equities: Neutral (17% from 14% last week, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next recession (2021?); Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (94%)
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - Position in 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: No Progress (15 from 13 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 16 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Insurance Companies
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 7 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live on Jan 18 @ 10.30 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$58.78 from US$59.12 last week from US$63.03 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1557 from US$1563 from US$1555;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.85 from US$2.81 from US$2.78;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

4. I'm no longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 3330 from 3265 last week from 3235 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. Sold Unilevel (UL)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 29056 from 28638 from 28452;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Traded Bud Pacific (1876)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3076 from 3092 from 3084;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3281 from 3255 from 3239;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Bought Thai Beverage
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 24041 from 23851 from 23657;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1596 from 1591 from 1611;
a. Bought Syarikat Takaful
b. Bought BAT
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 18 @ 10.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 110.16 from 109.43 last week from 108.08 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0073 from 3.0227 from 3.0383;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6874 from 0.6901 from 0.6952;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.9270 from 0.9308 from 0.9384;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.7882 from 2.8135 from 2.8507;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weakaer. 1.1086 from 1.1116 from 1.1159;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7681 from 7.7664 from 7.7790;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. Will HK be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0553 from 4.0766 from 4.1004;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3485 from 1.3487 from 1.3498;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.8597 from 6.9194 from 6.9655;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3016 from 1.3064 from 1.3083;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.2779 from 5.3256 from 5.3650;
a. Converted some GBP to MYR after the UK election

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.61 from 97.36 from 96.84;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.82% from 1.85% last week from 1.79% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.56% from 1.58% from 1.52%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 110.17 from 110.09 from 109.90;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Flat; 88.35 from 88.36 from 88.22;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 754 from 772 from 907; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby investar » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:13 pm

Buy First, Investigate Later? ;)


Makes me think of a quote from Perell:

When the cost of failure is high, plan before you act.

When the cost of failure is low, act before you plan.


Another look on the "fine line between preparation and procrastination":
https://nesslabs.com/start-now
investar
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Posts: 813
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:59 pm

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:50 pm

TOL @ Jan 25, 2020

Panic.jpg


If You Want To Panic, Do It Early?

As expected, this Wuhan SARS is starting to spread. (I'm deliberately calling it Wuhan SARS because the authorities dont want to use the word "SARS", in case people starts panicking).

And at a CNY function tonight, everyone there is an "expert" on Wuhan SARS. They can tell you that 41 people has died till date and there are 1300 cases as well as that a vaccine is on the way. Listening to them is like listening to those "political experts" talk at the coffee-shop, just before the election, as if they know everything.

Anyway, some of the articles are saying that Wuhan is now like a "warzone". The stockmarkets have also started to react to the event. HK and China have already dropped this week, while the US have started to correct.

Among my friends and relatives, they are no longer so confident that this market can fly higher. All I have to do is just frighthen them a bit and they will quickly run to their computers, to sell their shares.

Among the "experts" on TV, it's interesting to see Ray Dallio, the world largest hedge fund manager, says that "Cash is Trash" at Davos. This is just before the US markets corrected. If I have not mistaken, he underperformed the markets very badly last year.

I dont know how long this Wuhan SARS would last and how bad it would be. The previous SARS killed 800 people and took 6 months to control. So with the experience from the previous SARS, they probably can control it in a shorter time with a lower death rate.

In comparison, there were 15,000 Dengue Cases in Singapore in 2019. And Singapore is a clean and strict country. So if you are living in Singapore, you probably have a higher probability of contracting Dengue Fever than Wuhan Sars, for the time being.

With regards to the market, if this Wuhan SARS can be controlled within a very short period, then it is a great buying opportunity.

If it cannot be controlled within a short period, then it's better to panic early and to sell now.

As for myself, I have a pretty safe exposure to Equities, at about 15%. However, if the market is to drop another 25% from here, a small 15% exposure to equities, is still too high.

Anyway, I have been trying to hedge my exposure to equities, by buying some Inverse ETFs:-
1. 7500 (Inverse 2x Hang Seng)
2. UVXY (VIX 3x)
3. SQQQ (Inverse Nasdaq 3x)

I would probably be not doing much shopping until the market stabilizes, unless the the drop is very steep or that the company story, is very convincing.

Finally, on the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Impeachment Circus
2. Jan 28: FOMC Meeting
4. Jan 31: Brexit

Happy Chinese New Year and Happy Holidays!


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor Net Exposure To Equities: Neutral (15% from 17% last week, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next recession (2021?); Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (about 94%)
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts - Sold 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng 2x), UVXY (VIX 3x) and SQQQ (Inverse 3x S&P 500)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (14 from 15 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 16 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Insurance Companies: Reduced MNRB and Syarikat Takaful
Goal: To diversify across various sectors and countries


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 7 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live on Jan 25 @ 3.45 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$54.20 from US$58.78 last week from US$59.12 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1571 from US$1557 from US$1563;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.68 from US$2.85 from US$2.81;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

4. I'm no longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 3295 from 3330 last week from 3265 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. Traded SQQQ (Inverse3x Nasdaq)
b. Traded UVXY (VIX 3x)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 27950 from 29056 from 28638;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Traded 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng 2x)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2977 from 3076 from 3092;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3240 from 3281 from 3255;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23827 from 24041 from 23851;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1573 from 1596 from 1591;
a. Sold 1/2 Syarikat Takaful
b. Sold 1/2 MNRB
c. Sold IGB Reit
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 24 @ 9.30PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 109.56 from 110.16 last week from 109.43 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0091 from 3.0073 from 3.0227;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6842 from 0.6874 from 0.6901;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.9243 from 0.9270 from 0.9308;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.7812 from 2.7882 from 2.8135;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1038 from 1.1086 from 1.1116;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7730 from 7.7681 from 7.7664;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. Will HK be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0644 from 4.0553 from 4.0766;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3509 from 1.3485 from 1.3487;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.9387 from 6.8597 from 6.9194;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3096 from 1.3016 from 1.3064;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.3235 from 5.2779 from 5.3256;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.84 from 97.61 from 97.36;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.73% from 1.82% last week from 1.85% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.52% from 1.56% from 1.58%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.73 from 110.17 from 110.09;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 88.06 from 88.35 from 88.36;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 576 from 754 from 772; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:31 pm

TOL @ Feb 02, 2020

Panic.jpg


Can You Feel The Fear?

As mentioned last week, if you want to panic, you should panic early.

Now that the markets have dropped, what's the point of panicking now? You wont be able to sell your shares at a good price and it's probably too early to buy because "cheap can become much cheaper" later.

And the price of Inverse ETFs and Puts have already risen. If you buy them now, you can be easily whipsawed as there's so much Cash waiting on the sidelines to buy.

The "Plunge Protection Team" (PPT) and the Central Banksters are also probably plotting to whack the shorts.

Anyway, I have been shorting the markets this week, using Inverse ETFs in the US and HK, as well as Bear Put Warrants in HK.

I have taken some profits as I dont want to be whipsawed. However, intuitively, I think that the markets could still be weak for a few more weeks.

I also do not want to go against the new money flowing into the markets, from the new month of February.

So where do we go from here?

All eyes will be on the Chinese markets tomorrow. My guess is that they will first let the market fall. Thereafter, they would probably announce some stimulus eg. RRR cut etc. The National Team would probably be also supporting the market over the next few weeks.

As for the N. Coronavirus, everyone is waiting for Feb 8, the end of the 14 days incubation period. However, I think that April or May, is probably more realistic, to see whether it's under control. .

Everyone now is also scrambling to come out with a vaccine. My understanding is that it normally takes 3 months to test a vaccine on animals. And if it works on the animals, they were then test it on humans for at least a year, before declaring it safe for humans. If the vaccine is not properly tested on humans and then given to the general population, there could be complications later.

So even if they can short-cut the process, it would still take many months to have a vaccine. In the meantime, I will continue to short the market whenever I see any technical rebound

I have also been reviewing my notes on epidemics and you can find my notes here:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=110

To put things in perspective:-
1. In the US, every year, around 10,000 people die during flu season
2. In 2009, H1N1 killed about 150,000 to 500,000 people worldwide (big variation in the numbers)
3. In 2003, SARS killed about 800 people and took 6 months to control it
4. In 1918, the Spanish Flu killed 50m people out of the world's population of 500m

In the meantime, I need to remind myself to stagger my buying and not to buy too early. I made that mistake in 2008 and the markets continue to slide for a year after I have bought.

At the same time, I need to also remind myself to be not too gloomy:-
1. They did managed to control SARS within 6 months
2. You have a higher probability of getting Dengue in Singapore (15,000 cases last year) or die in a car accident in Malaysia (3rd highest globally) then to catch this N.Coronavirus, at this point in time

Perhaps it's in difficult times like this, that the boys would be separated from the men. I know of so many people who have a high exposure to Equities ( some 100% on margin) while I was slowly paring my exposure to Equities. They were laughing at me. Let's see who will have the last laugh.

Finally, you probably have seen those videos where there's a very long line up for masks, as if the world is going to end. If everyone is wearing a mask, it's probably safe for me to go around without a mask.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (8% from 11% last week from 17% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 20%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (about 80%):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash - Progress
a. Bought 7322 (Inverse S&P 1x) listed in HK
b. Bought 7331 (Inverse Nasdaq 1x) listed in HK
c. Traded 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng 2x) listed in HK
d. Bought SQQQ (Inverse 3x Nasdaq)
e. Traded LABD (Inverse 3x Biotech)
f. Traded TZA (Inverse 3x Russell)
g. Traded SOXS (Inverse Semiconductors)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (16 from 14 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 16 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Inverse ETFs
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 7 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live on Feb 1 @ 9.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$51.62 from US$54.20 last week from US$58.78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1589 from US$1571 from US$1557;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Lower; US$2.51 from US$2.68 from US$2.85;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

4. I'm no longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 3226 from 3295 last week from 3330 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. Bought SQQQ (Inverse3x Nasdaq)
b. Traded TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
c. Traded LABD (Inverse 3x)
d. Traded SOXS (Inverse Semiconductors 3x)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 26313 from 27950 from 29056;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Traded 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng 2x)
d. Bought 7322 (Inverse S&P 500 1x)
e. Bought 7331 (Inverse Nasdaq 1x)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 2977 from 2977 from 3076;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3154 from 3240 from 3281;
a. Resistance 3850
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23205 from 23827 from 24041;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1531 from 1573 from 1596;
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 31 @ 8.30PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.96 from 109.56 last week from 110.16 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0012 from 3.0091 from 3.0073;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6701 from 0.6842 from 0.6874;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.9150 from 0.9243 from 0.9270;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.7462 from 2.7812 from 2.7882;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1047 from 1.1038 from 1.1086;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7674 from 7.7730 from 7.7681;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. Will HK be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.0982 from 4.0644 from 4.0553;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3654 from 1.3509 from 1.3485;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9364 from 6.9387 from 6.8597;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3124 from 1.3096 from 1.3016;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.3775 from 5.3235 from 5.2779;

13. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 97.78 from 97.84 from 97.61;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.56% from 1.73% last week from 1.82% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.39% from 1.52% from 1.56%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 109.55 from 109.73 from 110.17;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.89 from 88.06 from 88.35;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 498 from 576 from 754; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:06 pm

TOL @ Feb 09, 2020

Second Chance.jpg


Second Chance To Sell?

The markets were very strong this week, as if the Coronovirus issue is no longer there.

This is what you get when there's a lot of Liquidity in the system. And some "experts" pointed to the US$250b from China early in the week, as the source of that Liquidity.

To put things in perspective, the daily turnover in China and the US, is about US$55b. Hence, that US$250b should be able to last a week or two.

Thereafter, maybe the ECB, BoJ or the Feds may take over. (The Central Banksters have probably discussed a coordinated move at Davos recently).

Therefore, it may be quite dangerous to short the markets at this point in time.

However, that does not mean that you cannot make use of the opportunity to sell some of your existing holdings, especially when you are sitting on some pretty profits.

Those Cash can deployed later, when the market does correct. But it's not easy to sell when you see the markets partying like 1999.

At this point in time, the worst case scenario is for this coronavirus to last till May. Warmer weather is supposedly not good for viruses. That means theat there could be a shutdown of about 4 months.

That means your Revenue and Earnings, could be down about 20% yoy. That also means that your stock price would also have a corresponding correction.

Yet the Central Banksters and the Plunge Protection Teams, thinks that they can get away by pumping a lot of liquidity into the system as if those money need not be repaid.

Let's see who is stronger, "Liquidity" or "Fundamentals".


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (13% from 8% last week from 11% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (86% from 80%):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash
a. Taken profit on most of my Inverse ETFs and Bear Puts as I dont want to be betting against the Central Banksters and the Plunge Protection Teams, at this point in time. There will be another day to bet against them.
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (20 from 16 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 16 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk off (Data from Commodities Live on Feb 1 @ 9.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$50.36 from US$51.62 last week from US$54.20 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1574 from US$1589 from US$1571;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.55 from US$2.51 from US$2.68;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

4. I'm no longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 3328 from 3226 last week from 3295 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. Bought Becton Dickinson (BDX)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 27404 from 26313 from 27950;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought Zhaojin Mining (1818)
d Traded MMG (1208)
e. Traded 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng 2x)
f. Sold 7322 (Inverse S&P 500 1x)
g. Sold 7331 (Inverse Nasdaq 1x)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2876 from 2977 from 2977;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3181 from 3154 from 3240;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Bought Manulife Reit
c. Aded to Thai Beverage
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23828 from 23205 from 23827;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1554 from 1531 from 1573;
a. Bought Gabungan AQRS
b. Added to MNRB
c. Added to IGB
d. Traded Hume Industries
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 7 @ 10.00PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 109.78 from 108.96 last week from 109.56 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9764 from 3.0012 from 3.0091;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6670 from 0.6701 from 0.6842;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.9278 from 0.9150 from 0.9243;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.7608 from 2.7462 from 2.7812;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.0950 from 1.1047 from 1.1038;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7641 from 7.7674 from 7.7730;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. Will HK be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1402 from 4.0982 from 4.0644;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3907 from 1.3654 from 1.3509;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.9950 from 6.9364 from 6.9387;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2926 from 1.3124 from 1.3096;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.3534 from 5.3775 from 5.3235;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.57 from 97.78 from 97.84;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.58% from 1.56% last week from 1.73% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 1.40% from 1.39% from 1.52%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.60 from 109.55 from 109.73;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.97 from 87.89 from 88.06;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 415 from 498 from 576; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:57 am

TOL @ Feb 16, 2020

Second Chance To Sell?

Liquidity versus Fundamentals

The markets have been relatively strong for the past two weeks and the markets are behaving as if:-
1. This Covid-19 is a non-issue anymore
2. The On-Time Supply-Chains would not be materially affected
3. China, the second largest economy in the world, will still have their +5% GDP growth
4. This Covid-19 will not spread to the US, Europe and other parts of the world
5. The Central Banksters will have enough bullets to protect everyone's back

So where do we go from here?
1. How much liquid money does China still has, after pumping US$250b into the markets?
2. When would the other Central Banksters, start throwing their money around too?
3. Will this Covid-19 really taper off next week, the end of the incubation period of supposedly 14 days?
4. What happens if the incubation period can last 24 days, as alleged by Dr. Tony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Disease, US?
5. What happens if this Covid-19 can really spread to more than half the world's population, as alleged by Gabriel Leung, Chair of Public Health Medicine at Hong Kong University and Ira Longini, WHO Adviser?
6. And will this Covid-19 really disappear by May, the onset of warmth weather? At that time, wouldn't it be winter in the Southern Hemispheres?

Intuitively, I feel that the markets are too complacent. They think that the Central Banksters and the Plunge Protection Teams, can cover their backs. They dont think that the On-Time Supply Chains will be affected nor would this virus spread to where they are etc.

And when will they find out that they are wrong? (Or perhaps right?).

As mentioned last week, I think that it's a good time to take some profits. But if there's any convincing story, I will still be probably buying it.

The Central Banksters and the PPTs will probably cover our backs for the time being, as they still have some bullets. However, a few months from now, that may be a much different story.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (21% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (80% from 86%):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash: No Trade
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (21 from 20 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 20 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk on (Data from Commodities Live on Feb 15 @ 9.30 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$52.23 from US$50.36 last week from US$51.62 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1586 from US$1574 from US$1589;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Higher; US$2.60 from US$2.55 from US$2.51;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

4. I'm no longer monitoring Palladium, Cobalt, Uranium, Silver, Platinum and Zinc on a weekly basis


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Higher. 3380 from 3328 last week from 3226 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. Sold Becton Dickinson (BDX)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 27797 from 27404 from 26313;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Sold Zhaojin Mining (1818)
d. Traded MMG (1208)
e. Traded Cosco Shipping Energy (1138)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2917 from 2876 from 2977;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3220 from 3181 from 3154;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Traded Thai Beverage
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23688 from 23828 from 23205;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1544 from 1554 from 1531;
a. Bought Hong Leong Bank
b. Bought YTL Power
c. Bought Oriental Holdings
d. Added to IGB
e. Sold Gabungan AQRS
f. Traded Hume Industries
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies - Mixed (Data from XE.com on Feb 14 @ 2.30PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 109.76 from 109.78 last week from 108.96 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. QE Infinity?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 2.9802 from 2.9764 from 3.0012;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.6722 from 0.6670 from 0.6701;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger; 0.9342 from 0.9278 from 0.9150;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger; 2.7840 from 2.7608 from 2.7462;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.0839 from 1.0950 from 1.1047;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7683 from 7.7641 from 7.7674;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. Will HK be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1411 from 4.1402 from 4.0982;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3898 from 1.3907 from 1.3654;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9824 from 6.9950 from 6.9364;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3052 from 1.2926 from 1.3124;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronge; 5.4054 from 5.3534 from 5.3775;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.11 from 98.57 from 97.78;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent to Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.60% from 1.58% last week from 1.56% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 1.43% from 1.40% from 1.39%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 110.11 from 109.60 from 109.55;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 88.41 from 87.97 from 87.89;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 421 from 415 from 498; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:03 am

TOL @ Feb 23, 2020

covid-19-stock-market.jpg


Is The US Market Correcting?

The US market was very weak on Friday and a lot of people were wondering whether it's starting to correct.

And whenever the US market is weak, Larry Kudlow would mysteriously appear on TV, to try to talk up the market. However, he was not successful this time and the markets sank further.

So where do we go from here?

Intuitively, I think that the US market is still quite strong as there's still a lot of Liquidity in the system.

And Larry Kudlow and the other perma-bulls are trying to sell the story that Covid-19 will not materially affect the US economy, despite the disruptions in the Supply Chains.

As for myself, I prefer to have a more balanced view. I'm starting to see pockets of weaknesses in various sectors eg. Airlines, Hotels, Tourism, Restaurants, Retail, Life Insurance, Public Transportation, Casinos etc.

At the same time, China is trying to restart their factories. However, getting their workers back to work is a challenge, not to mention trying to navigate around the regulators.

I mentioned before that if Revenue decreases by about 10% to 20% from this episode, then it's not unreasonable to see a corresponding decline in share prices.

However, China (the epicentre of this Covid-19) has seen a "V" shape recovery as if this Covid-19 is a non-issue. (Liquidity and "Instructions" can do wonders).

And the US market has been rising continuosly for the past two weeks as if there's an invincible hand moving it. It would not surprised me if the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) has been buying the 6 Tech counters to "manipulate" the US indices.

For the coming week, I think that it's still dangerous to buy Inverse ETFs. It's no point fighting the PPTs and The National Team at this point in time. Maybe a few months from now.

At the same time, I need to also remind myself not to be too confident that the markets can continue to rise especially if this Covid-19 starts to spread outside of China.

In all of my purchases, I need to make sure that there's a short term catalyst. I should not buy something because it is cheap because "cheap can become much cheaper later".

For the coming week, I'll probably be focussing on the stimulus plays in Malaysia.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (24% from 21% last week of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: No Progress (88%):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash: No Trade
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (20 from 21 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 20 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 8 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 6 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk on (Data from Commodities Live on Feb 22 @ 10.00 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$53.44 from US$52.23 last week from US$50.36 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1646 from US$1586 from US$1574;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.60 from US$2.60 from US$2.55;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 3338 from 3380 last week from 3328 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. Bought Goldman Sachs (GS)
c. Bought Microsoft (MSFT)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 27309 from 27797 from 27404;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Traded HSBC
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3040 from 2917 from 2876;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3181 from 3220 from 3181;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Sold Thai Beverage
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23387 from 23688 from 23828;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1531 from 1544 from 1554;
a. Bought Gabungan AQRS
b. Bought Maybank
c. Bought Berjaya Sports Toto
d. Added to MNRB
e. Added to Syarikat Takaful
f. Added to Pharmaniaga
g. Sold YTL Power
h. Sold BAT
i. Traded Hume Industries
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 22 @ 8.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 111.56 from 109.76 last week from 109.78 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 2,9963 from 2.9802 from 2.9764;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6629 from 0.6722 from 0.6670;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.9268 from 0.9342 from 0.9278;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.7770 from 2.7840 from 2.7608;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.0843 from 1.0839 from 1.0950;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7874 from 7.7683 from 7.7641;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1901 from 4.1411 from 4.1402;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3984 from 1.3898 from 1.3907;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.0271 from 6.9824 from 6.9950;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2958 from 1.3052 from 1.2926;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger; 5.4294 from 5.4054 from 5.3534;

13. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.26 from 99.11 from 98.57;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent to Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.47% from 1.60% last week from 1.58% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 1.39% from 1.43% from 1.40%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 110.08 from 110.11 from 109.60;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 88.33 from 88.41 from 87.97;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 480 from 421 from 415; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118527
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:22 pm

TOL @ Mar 01, 2020

cheap.jpg


Cheap becoming Cheaper?

It has been a brutal week for the global markets except for China, the epicentre of this Covid-19.

People are supposed to be dying like flies in China, yet it's stock market is holding up quite well, except for Friday.

And in everywhere else, their markets are behaving as if there's a pandemic already, much greater than China.

Doesn't it make you wonder that there's something wrong somewhere? Are things really that bad outside of China?

How many people have really contracted Covid-19 in Singapore, compared to the 15,000 Dengue cases that they had last year?

How many people have really contracted Covid-19 in the US, compared to their their 45m flu cases in 2018-2019 (which resulted in 61,000 deaths)?

Anyway, the current statistics shows a 2% mortality rate on this Covid-19 and a recovery rate of more than 4 times the mortality rate. However, we are now starting to read about supposedly recovered patients, who tested positive again.

Therefore, it would be interesting to see whether the rest of the people who contracted the virus, would really die or can recover. And if they can recover, why panick?

Anyway, if this Covid-19 can be controlled by May (hot weather), then this may be a good buying opportunity.

And if this Covid-19 continues to spread pass Summer, then people will panic further, as the next Winter is only 10 months away.

A good gauge of things, would be whether they would cancel the Tokyo Olympics in July.

For the coming week, I'll probably be focussing on the political circus in Malaysia.

I took some positions in Malaysia after the drop, as well as converted some USD and GBP to MYR. I now need to remind myself not to get too carried away.

"Cheap" can become "much cheaper" very quickly, when a situation is very fluid, both in terms of Share Prices and Currency Depreciation.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 24% last week of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 5% exposure to Equities before the next crash / recession (2021?); Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (72% from 88%):
Goal: To reduce percentage of Asian Equities to around 50%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the Crash: No Trade
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold" - No progress. (Around 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (24 from 20 last week)
Goal: To focus on about 20 counters from 4 countries, with heavier weightings

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Market Risk Indicators

1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;

2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds; EM USD Loans;

3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?;

4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?; EM; Italy;

5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020

6. Valuation; 8 (Safe 1: PE15; Danger 10) PE S&P, Nadsaq; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation

7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - Iran; South China Sea; Europe; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Iran;

Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 60%; Danger: 85%)


Commodities: Risk on (Data from Commodities Live on Feb 22 @ 10.00 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$53.44 from US$52.23 last week from US$50.36 two weeks ago;
Support: US$43; US$34; Resistance: US$75, US$105;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1646 from US$1586 from US$1574;
Support: $1240; $1150; $1050; Resistance: $1575; $1775; $1830;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Copper - Flat; US$2.60 from US$2.60 from US$2.55;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

1. US Equities - Lower. 3338 from 3380 last week from 3328 two weeks ago;
a. Support: 2750; 2320; Resistance: PE 21;
b. Bought Alphabet (GOOG)
c. Bought Berskhire Hathaway (BRK)
d. Bought Amazon (AMZN)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 26130 from 27309 from 27797;
a. Support: 25500, 24500, 23500; 22000;
b. Resistance: 29000; 31600;
c. Bought China Mobile (0941)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2880 from 3040 from 2917;
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 3300; 3600
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3011 from 3181 from 3220;
a. Resistance 3850
b. Bought Haw Par
c. Bought Keppel Pacific Oak Reit
d. Added to Manulife US Reit
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 21143 from 23387 from 23688;
a. Forward PE 13
b. Support 19000; Resistance 25000
c. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
d. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1483 from 1531 from 1544;
a. Sold Gabungan AQRS
b. Sold Maybank
c. Sold Hong Leong Bank
d. Sold 1/2 Syarikat Takaful
e. Traded Dayang
f. Traded MYEG
g. Traded Hume Industries
h. Traded NAIM
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30



Currencies - Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 28 @ 8.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.75 from 111.56 last week from 109.76 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. No Longer a Safe Haven because of Covid-19 ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0216 from 2,9963 from 2.9802;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6507 from 0.6629 from 0.6722;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. To diversify my AUD into what currency?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker; 0.9080 from 0.9268 from 0.9342;
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012)

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker; 2.7435 from 2.7770 from 2.7840;
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.0992 from 1.0843 from 1.0839;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7932 from 7.7874 from 7.7683;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.2166 from 4.1901 from 4.1411;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. Converted some USD to MYR
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

9. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3952 from 1.3984 from 1.3898;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catatrophe can wipe them out; But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

10. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.9836 from 7.0271 from 6.9824;
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

11. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.2878 from 1.2958 from 1.3052;
a. Brexit
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

12. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker; 5.4286 from 5.4294 from 5.4054;
a. Converted some GBP to MYR

13. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 98.42 from 99.26 from 99.11;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent to Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO)?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.22% from 1.47% last week from 1.60% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.994% from 1.39% from 1.43%;

Interest Rates:-
a. About US$13t or about 1/3 of the world’s bonds have negative yields
b. US Rate Hike: Two more 25 bps cut by end 2020?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 106.62 from 110.08 from 110.11;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 85.69 from 88.33 from 88.41;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 529 from 480 from 421; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The buttom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118527
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

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