TOL @ Sep 10, 2023
Window Dressing Season?
We are now touching the middle of Sept and Window Dressing should be starting if it has not already started.
If there's any meaningful rally from the Window Dressing activities, I would probably sell into it.
As mentioned, my objective is to last till 2H 2024 which means that I will need to keep my Cash level elevated for a few more months, in case of any accident in the markets.
Again, that does not mean that I will not buy any "oversold" stocks in the meantime. For this week, I did pick up two "oversold" stocks:-
a. Sun Hung Kai Properties
b. Grab
As the markets have been weak, the bears are out again this week:-
1. Mohamed El-Erian:-
a. Warning that a swath of corporations will be hurt by higher interest rates when they have to refinance next year
2. John Hussman:-
a. Investors may want to "buckle up" ahead of a fourth-quarter recession
b. If recession was to begin in Q4, the time to buckle up would be right now
c. Has long been pessimistic about the US economy and stocks, warning of a deep plunge in equities for years; So very wrong till date.
3. Bill Gross:-
a. Investors are overlooking the risk to stocks from a sharp rise in real bond yields
b. Skeptical the Fed will achieve 2% inflation and cut interest rates anytime soon.
c. Warned the US economy relies on asset prices rising, putting it at risk if they don't.
4. Ray Dalio:-
a. Doesn't want to hold bonds, cash ‘is good’
5. Kyle Bass:-
a. Sees Banks Losing Quarter Trillion Dollars In Coming Office Market Collapse; Morgan Stanley: Sees 40% Wipeout
6. Mike Wilson:-
a. The S&P 500 is priced for perfection and could plunge 25% if problems crop up
b. Outlook for company earnings and the economy is pretty grim
c. Investors have piled into Big Tech to ride out the storm but they may still feel pain
7. Jeffrey Gundlach:-
a. Thinks the Fed will cut “in the first half of the next year,” and at a speed much faster than it had raised rates.
b. The Fed raises rates by taking the stairs and they cut rates by taking the elevator
8. Milton Berg:-
a. Stocks could crash nearly 50% as a severe recession sets in
b. Flagged investor complacency and more banking woes as risk factors.
c. Expects the S&P 500 to plunge below its level in October and approach its pandemic lows
For next week, everyone is watching the Feds, to see whether they would be raising interest rates on Sept 20th. As mentioned last week, I think that it's a non-event. interest rates are already elevated and they cant go much higher from here.
Finally, I have to make a few short trips over the next few weeks. Therefore, I wont be able to post much over the next few weeks including my Weekly Investment Blogs.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (32% from 29% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$91 from US$87 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Flat. US$1945 from US$1943 from US$1966;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.80 from US$3.72 from US$3.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$62 from US$61 last week from US$59 two week ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 26607 from 25900 last week from 26007 two weeks ago @ 8.03 AM on Sep 16, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher: "52 Neutral: from "51 Neutral" last week from "56 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 4450 from 4457 last week from 4516 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. Bought GRAB
2. HK Equities - Lower. 18183 from 18202 from 18382 from 17956;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Sun Hung Kai Properties
3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3118 from 3117 from 3133;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33533 from 32607 from 32711;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1459 from 1455 from 1463:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 15 @ 10.37 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 147 from 147 last week from 145 two weeks ago.
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.44 from 3.43 from 3.43;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8273 from 8385 from 7.8416;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.68 from 4.68 from 4.63;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.26 from 7.34 from 7.25;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.01 from 104.98 last week from 103.56 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.34% from 4.26% from 4.23%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.04% from 4.99% from 5.08%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.88 from 91.59 from 92.44;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.92 from 74.65 from 75.31;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1340 from 1141 from 1086; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
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Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:29 pm
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:19 am
TOL @ Oct 15, 2023
The Big Picture (Update)
I was away for the past three weekends so it's timely to check on the "Big Picture" before the US Earnings Season.
1. Interest Rates:- The US government cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they have a huge debt to service. Every 100 bps rise in interest rates, will add about US$285b in additional interest payments for the US government.
Therefore, Powell's hands are quite tied but he will continue to try to frighten the markets, to manage "inflation expectations".
So what if he raise interests by another 50 bps over the next few months?
Things are already slowing down rapidly in the US. I dont think the US economy can take another 1% rise in interest rates.
Commercial Properties are already tanking. If interest rate remains elevated into the next 18 months, the next shoe to drop could be Residential Properties.
SMEs are already struggling and so are those with huge Credit Card debts.
The question is how long more, could interest rates stay "elevated". My guess is that US interest rates will probably not drop until the next crisis appear, as the Feds has a history of overshooting things.
Therefore, I may need to now keep some dry powder until at least 1Q 2024.
2. Inflation:- Consumer Demand is already dropping and there's no more Supply Chain issues.
I think that for future CPI and PPI numbers, they would show that inflation is dropping as long as the Ukraine War, Israel Conflict and Oil Prices, do not get worse from here
3. USD:- The USD has been quite strong due to the high interest rates in the US. Once there's a feeling of "Peak Interest Rates", it should weaken from there. It looks like it would only occur around 2H 2024 now.
4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. So far, the "China Reopening" has not lead to more demand for Commodities yet.
5. Liquidity:- The markets have been fairly liquid and we have not seen any major problem. In the meantime, China and Japan is continuously adding to the world's Liquidity.
6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not get worse from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.
7. Ukraine War:- I was expecting it to end sooner than later. China was trying to be seen as a "mediator" but it looks like an uphill battle now. With the Israel Conflict now and the US Debt Ceiling Circus, it looks like this Ukraine War may drag on for a little while longer.
8. Market Sentiment:- "Magnificent Seven" is still strong in the US. China and HK may be a bit "oversold" and could be a "good bet" for the medium term.
9. US Earnings:- People are focusing on the forward guidance to see how bad things will be. Some "experts' are talking of an "US Earnings Recession" and how it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets.
10. Trading Tactic:- I have been buying on any steep drop and trying to sell at the 50% retracement. In the meantime, I need to watch my "Cash Level" as I now need to survive till 1H 2024.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (33% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$88;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$70 from US$73 last week;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 26871 @ 8.00 AM on Oct 14, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - "29 Fear"
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4328 from 4309 last week from 4288 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. Sold SEA (SE)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17813 from 17486 last week from 17810 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought JD
d. Sold Sun Hung Kai Properties
e. Sold Ping An
f. Sold NIO
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3088 from 3110 from 3119;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32316 from 31076 from 31858;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1444 from 1416 from 1424:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Boustead Plantations
c. Traded Hume Cement
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 14 @ 8.20 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 89.18;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 72.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1935 from 1340 from 1141; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
The Big Picture (Update)
I was away for the past three weekends so it's timely to check on the "Big Picture" before the US Earnings Season.
1. Interest Rates:- The US government cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they have a huge debt to service. Every 100 bps rise in interest rates, will add about US$285b in additional interest payments for the US government.
Therefore, Powell's hands are quite tied but he will continue to try to frighten the markets, to manage "inflation expectations".
So what if he raise interests by another 50 bps over the next few months?
Things are already slowing down rapidly in the US. I dont think the US economy can take another 1% rise in interest rates.
Commercial Properties are already tanking. If interest rate remains elevated into the next 18 months, the next shoe to drop could be Residential Properties.
SMEs are already struggling and so are those with huge Credit Card debts.
The question is how long more, could interest rates stay "elevated". My guess is that US interest rates will probably not drop until the next crisis appear, as the Feds has a history of overshooting things.
Therefore, I may need to now keep some dry powder until at least 1Q 2024.
2. Inflation:- Consumer Demand is already dropping and there's no more Supply Chain issues.
I think that for future CPI and PPI numbers, they would show that inflation is dropping as long as the Ukraine War, Israel Conflict and Oil Prices, do not get worse from here
3. USD:- The USD has been quite strong due to the high interest rates in the US. Once there's a feeling of "Peak Interest Rates", it should weaken from there. It looks like it would only occur around 2H 2024 now.
4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. So far, the "China Reopening" has not lead to more demand for Commodities yet.
5. Liquidity:- The markets have been fairly liquid and we have not seen any major problem. In the meantime, China and Japan is continuously adding to the world's Liquidity.
6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not get worse from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.
7. Ukraine War:- I was expecting it to end sooner than later. China was trying to be seen as a "mediator" but it looks like an uphill battle now. With the Israel Conflict now and the US Debt Ceiling Circus, it looks like this Ukraine War may drag on for a little while longer.
8. Market Sentiment:- "Magnificent Seven" is still strong in the US. China and HK may be a bit "oversold" and could be a "good bet" for the medium term.
9. US Earnings:- People are focusing on the forward guidance to see how bad things will be. Some "experts' are talking of an "US Earnings Recession" and how it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets.
10. Trading Tactic:- I have been buying on any steep drop and trying to sell at the 50% retracement. In the meantime, I need to watch my "Cash Level" as I now need to survive till 1H 2024.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (33% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$88;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$70 from US$73 last week;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 26871 @ 8.00 AM on Oct 14, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - "29 Fear"
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4328 from 4309 last week from 4288 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. Sold SEA (SE)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17813 from 17486 last week from 17810 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought JD
d. Sold Sun Hung Kai Properties
e. Sold Ping An
f. Sold NIO
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3088 from 3110 from 3119;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32316 from 31076 from 31858;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1444 from 1416 from 1424:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Boustead Plantations
c. Traded Hume Cement
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 14 @ 8.20 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 89.18;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 72.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1935 from 1340 from 1141; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Oct 22, 2023 7:32 am
TOL @ Oct 22, 2023
Bearish Market Direction?
It has been said that about 70% of the counters, goes in the direction of the market.
Therefore, one would not want to be betting against the market unless there's a very good company specific or sector news.
And if you are a fan of "CANSLIM", you will probably not be investing in this type of market.
"CANSLIM" gives a lot of weighting to "Market Direction" and if there's a series of "distributing days" as in the past week, one would be really going against the market.
Intuitively, I have also not been trading much this week. I had only one purchase despite watching the markets attentively.
Anyway, HK will be closed on Monday and it's not a good bet to have any new HK position over the long weekend with the ongoing Israel conflict, although I think that some counters in HK are quite "oversold".
As for the US, I'm watching for any opportunities during earnings announcements. TSLA has corrected quite a bit but I have not initiated a position yet.
Since the markets have been quite weak, the "bears" have been coming out again:-
1. Jamie Dimon: This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.
2. John Hussman: The S&P 500 is in a historic bubble and could crash by 63%
3. Mike Wilson: The U.S. stocks could enjoy a year-end rally but still believes that shares will end the year lower than they are right now
Finally, we will be hitting a new month soon so there could be some fund managers
who could be deploying some of their existing Cash late next week, as they would be receiving new money from the new month.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (33% from 33% last week, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 61% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$88 from US$88 last week;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1993 from US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.55 from US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$69 from US$70 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 29813 @ 5.38 PM on Oct 20, 2023 from 26871 last week
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "26 Fear" from "29 Fear" last week
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 4224 from 4328 last week from 4309 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 17172 from 17813 last week from 17486 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2983 from 3088 from 3110;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 31259 from 32316 from 31076;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1441 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought YTL
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 20 @ 5.25 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.47 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.06 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8222 from 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.29 from 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 106.10 from 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 87.96 from 89.18;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 71.78 from 72.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2071 from 1935 from 1340; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Bearish Market Direction?
It has been said that about 70% of the counters, goes in the direction of the market.
Therefore, one would not want to be betting against the market unless there's a very good company specific or sector news.
And if you are a fan of "CANSLIM", you will probably not be investing in this type of market.
"CANSLIM" gives a lot of weighting to "Market Direction" and if there's a series of "distributing days" as in the past week, one would be really going against the market.
Intuitively, I have also not been trading much this week. I had only one purchase despite watching the markets attentively.
Anyway, HK will be closed on Monday and it's not a good bet to have any new HK position over the long weekend with the ongoing Israel conflict, although I think that some counters in HK are quite "oversold".
As for the US, I'm watching for any opportunities during earnings announcements. TSLA has corrected quite a bit but I have not initiated a position yet.
Since the markets have been quite weak, the "bears" have been coming out again:-
1. Jamie Dimon: This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.
2. John Hussman: The S&P 500 is in a historic bubble and could crash by 63%
3. Mike Wilson: The U.S. stocks could enjoy a year-end rally but still believes that shares will end the year lower than they are right now
Finally, we will be hitting a new month soon so there could be some fund managers
who could be deploying some of their existing Cash late next week, as they would be receiving new money from the new month.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (33% from 33% last week, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 61% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$88 from US$88 last week;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1993 from US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.55 from US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$69 from US$70 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 29813 @ 5.38 PM on Oct 20, 2023 from 26871 last week
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "26 Fear" from "29 Fear" last week
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 4224 from 4328 last week from 4309 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4300; 4130; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 20; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 17172 from 17813 last week from 17486 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 17300; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2983 from 3088 from 3110;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 31259 from 32316 from 31076;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1441 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought YTL
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 20 @ 5.25 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.47 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.06 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8222 from 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.29 from 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 106.10 from 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 87.96 from 89.18;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 71.78 from 72.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2071 from 1935 from 1340; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Oct 29, 2023 9:01 am
TOL @ Oct 29, 2023
Various Trading Ideas:-
It will soon be a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, there should be a spike in the markets early next week. Thereafter, I'm expecting the markets to be quite choppy until the "Year End Window Dressing" season.
My trading strategy remains cautious and I'm keeping a higher level of Cash. Anyway, over the past few weeks, I've been thinking of the following trading ideas:-
1. Shorting Nasdaq
2. Buying Long Term US Bonds
3. Adding China Big Techs
4. Adding HK & China Blue Chips
5. Buying Japanese Yen
6. Shorting Japanese Equities
7. Shorting USD Index
As for #1 above, I've been waiting to short the Nasdaq market. I think that the "Magnificent Seven" is being overbought and they now make up a huge % of the Nasdaq 100 . Their combined PE is around 45. Recently, the Nasdaq seemed to be also forming a "M" on the charts. I will probably use the PSQ to short the Nasdaq market. Once the slide begins, I may switch to using the SQQQ (3x Inverse).
As for #2, I've also been waiting to buy some long-term US Bonds for the eventual drop in interest rates. However, people seemed to believe the "higher for longer rates" story for now. Therefore, I may wait for around November 17th, to see whether there would be any "US Government Shutdown" first. By then, we should also have more clarity on the current Israel -Gaza conflict. I will probably use the TLT (20+ Treasury Bond ETF) for #2.
As for #3, I already have some exposure to the China Big Techs eg. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan and 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF). I may continue to add to my positions as and when there's a severe dip.
As for #4, I think that China & HK are "oversold" now. I have been slowly adding to my positions there. However, I should be mindful that they will also drop if there's a deep crash in the US.
As for #5, I think that the drop in the JPY is quite overdone. It has moved from around 1.00 to 1.50 in less than three years. When inflation eventually appears in Japan, they will need to increase interest rates and the JPY should strengthen from there. I will probably use the FCY (Long JPY). Once the trend has been established, I will then use YCL (2x Long JPY).
As for #6, the Nikkei has risen from around 16500 in 2020, to about 33,000 recently. I think that it's quite overbought and once the JPY strengthens, the Japanese Exporters could be hit. If I want to short the Japanese Equities, I will use the EWV (2x Inverse).
For #7, once US interest rates starts to drop, the USD would probably also depreciate at that time. I will probably look at UDN at that time but there's not much liquidity in that ETF now.
The above are some of my recent trading ideas. For them to be successful, I will need to time them properly. Not easy. At the same time, I need to also remind myself of exit routes if things do not go as planned, as there are many moving parts in the markets nowadays.
Finally, the following are some bearish and bullish comments this week;-
Bearish comments:-
1. Leon Cooperman: Stay cautious. I think we’re in a rolling correction and that it will take a long time for us to work out the problems.
2. Peter Schiff: This Is the most obvious financial crisis that nobody sees coming
3. Bill Gross: It’s time to stop betting against bonds and get ready for a economic slowdown. Recession in 4th quarter.
4. Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies: 4,180 is a key support level that needs to be preserved, to prevent further selling. (We have already breached it)
Bullish Comments:-
1. Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler: Stocks have room to rally 14% this year on various oversold technical indicators eg. S&P 500 breadth, Bank of America's Bull and Bear Indicator, VIX etc.
2. Jeff Clark: After last week’s ugly action, the conditions are in place for a sustainable rally into the end of the year.
3. Investor Place: Near-term gains and a stronger market in 2024 are lining up:-
a. In the near-term, we are in a strong seasonal time of year. October through December are typically the best months for the market.
b. Interest rates and Treasury yields have likely peaked.
c. Earnings are coming in strong so far and are projected to exceed expectations.
d. Earnings estimates for 2024 support continued market strength.
For next week, we have the FOMC Meeting on Oct 29-31. Yawn Yawn. No one is expecting rates to be increased and so what if they actually do increase rates by another 25 bps? The world will continue to spin...
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (36% from 33% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$85 from US$88 last week from US$88 two weeks agolast week;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2016 from US$1993 from US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.64 from US$3.55 from US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$73 from US$69 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 34102 @ 5.02 PM on Oct 2, 2023 from 29813 last week from 26871 two weeks ago
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "24 Extreme Fear" from "26 Fear" last week from "29 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 4117 from 4224 last week from 4328 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Sanofi (SNY)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17400 from 17172 last week from 17813 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Standard Chartered
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3018 from 2983 from 3088;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 30992 from 31259 from 32316;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1442 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold YTL
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 27 @ 4.45 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.47 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Higher; 0.64 from 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8194 from 7.8222 from 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.30 from 7.29 from 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.42 from 106.10 from 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.85% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 5.02% from 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 88.76 from 87.96 from 89.18;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 72.45 from 71.78 from 72.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1662 from 2071 from 1935; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Various Trading Ideas:-
It will soon be a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, there should be a spike in the markets early next week. Thereafter, I'm expecting the markets to be quite choppy until the "Year End Window Dressing" season.
My trading strategy remains cautious and I'm keeping a higher level of Cash. Anyway, over the past few weeks, I've been thinking of the following trading ideas:-
1. Shorting Nasdaq
2. Buying Long Term US Bonds
3. Adding China Big Techs
4. Adding HK & China Blue Chips
5. Buying Japanese Yen
6. Shorting Japanese Equities
7. Shorting USD Index
As for #1 above, I've been waiting to short the Nasdaq market. I think that the "Magnificent Seven" is being overbought and they now make up a huge % of the Nasdaq 100 . Their combined PE is around 45. Recently, the Nasdaq seemed to be also forming a "M" on the charts. I will probably use the PSQ to short the Nasdaq market. Once the slide begins, I may switch to using the SQQQ (3x Inverse).
As for #2, I've also been waiting to buy some long-term US Bonds for the eventual drop in interest rates. However, people seemed to believe the "higher for longer rates" story for now. Therefore, I may wait for around November 17th, to see whether there would be any "US Government Shutdown" first. By then, we should also have more clarity on the current Israel -Gaza conflict. I will probably use the TLT (20+ Treasury Bond ETF) for #2.
As for #3, I already have some exposure to the China Big Techs eg. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan and 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF). I may continue to add to my positions as and when there's a severe dip.
As for #4, I think that China & HK are "oversold" now. I have been slowly adding to my positions there. However, I should be mindful that they will also drop if there's a deep crash in the US.
As for #5, I think that the drop in the JPY is quite overdone. It has moved from around 1.00 to 1.50 in less than three years. When inflation eventually appears in Japan, they will need to increase interest rates and the JPY should strengthen from there. I will probably use the FCY (Long JPY). Once the trend has been established, I will then use YCL (2x Long JPY).
As for #6, the Nikkei has risen from around 16500 in 2020, to about 33,000 recently. I think that it's quite overbought and once the JPY strengthens, the Japanese Exporters could be hit. If I want to short the Japanese Equities, I will use the EWV (2x Inverse).
For #7, once US interest rates starts to drop, the USD would probably also depreciate at that time. I will probably look at UDN at that time but there's not much liquidity in that ETF now.
The above are some of my recent trading ideas. For them to be successful, I will need to time them properly. Not easy. At the same time, I need to also remind myself of exit routes if things do not go as planned, as there are many moving parts in the markets nowadays.
Finally, the following are some bearish and bullish comments this week;-
Bearish comments:-
1. Leon Cooperman: Stay cautious. I think we’re in a rolling correction and that it will take a long time for us to work out the problems.
2. Peter Schiff: This Is the most obvious financial crisis that nobody sees coming
3. Bill Gross: It’s time to stop betting against bonds and get ready for a economic slowdown. Recession in 4th quarter.
4. Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies: 4,180 is a key support level that needs to be preserved, to prevent further selling. (We have already breached it)
Bullish Comments:-
1. Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler: Stocks have room to rally 14% this year on various oversold technical indicators eg. S&P 500 breadth, Bank of America's Bull and Bear Indicator, VIX etc.
2. Jeff Clark: After last week’s ugly action, the conditions are in place for a sustainable rally into the end of the year.
3. Investor Place: Near-term gains and a stronger market in 2024 are lining up:-
a. In the near-term, we are in a strong seasonal time of year. October through December are typically the best months for the market.
b. Interest rates and Treasury yields have likely peaked.
c. Earnings are coming in strong so far and are projected to exceed expectations.
d. Earnings estimates for 2024 support continued market strength.
For next week, we have the FOMC Meeting on Oct 29-31. Yawn Yawn. No one is expecting rates to be increased and so what if they actually do increase rates by another 25 bps? The world will continue to spin...
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (36% from 33% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$85 from US$88 last week from US$88 two weeks agolast week;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2016 from US$1993 from US$1946
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$23
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.64 from US$3.55 from US$3.57
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$73 from US$69 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 34102 @ 5.02 PM on Oct 2, 2023 from 29813 last week from 26871 two weeks ago
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "24 Extreme Fear" from "26 Fear" last week from "29 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 4117 from 4224 last week from 4328 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Sanofi (SNY)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17400 from 17172 last week from 17813 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Standard Chartered
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3018 from 2983 from 3088;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 30992 from 31259 from 32316;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1442 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold YTL
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 27 @ 4.45 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 151
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.47 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Higher; 0.64 from 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8194 from 7.8222 from 7.8250;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.30 from 7.29 from 7.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.42 from 106.10 from 106.45;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.85% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 5.02% from 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 88.76 from 87.96 from 89.18;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 72.45 from 71.78 from 72.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1662 from 2071 from 1935; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward to your friends and relatives if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Nov 05, 2023 8:28 am
TOL @ Nov 5, 2023
Hold, Sell or Buy ?
As expected, there was a rally in the markets. Some "experts" said that it was due to the "oversold" conditions. Others think that it was due to the "new money from the new month".
Now that we have had this rally, is it time to hold, sell or buy? Intuitively, I think that the markets would be a bit choppy until 2024. Therefore, one must need to have a very good reason to buy or hold nowadays.
"November being a seasonal strong month" or "potential window dressing activities" are not strong enough reasons to buy or hold anymore.
My trading strategy remains unchanged. I may buy extremely oversold (around 20%) brand names, for a quick profit (say 4%). Again, there's no hard & fast rule. I will have to look at the situation at that time and then decide whether I want to take that risk or not.
For this week, I hesitated on Li Ning and Yum China and both has rebounded. Instead, I bought Standard Chartered and China Merchants Bank but both did not go anywhere. Only Sanofi netted me some profits.
Anyway, the following are some bearish and bullish comments for your reference:--
Bearish Comments:-
1. Jeffery Gundlach:
a. Rates are going to fall due to a recession 1H 2024
b. Layoffs are coming. Financial and technology firms will not be spared
Stanley Druckenmiller:-
a. Betting on a bull market in short-term bonds due to growing risk of an economic meltdown
b. Betting against long-term bonds thanks to the US government’s endless need for revenues
3. Jamie Dimon:
a. The Feds could still hike rates by an additional 75 basis points
b. There's a chance that inflation is just a little stickier than people think
4. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley:
a. The S&P 500 is likely to end the year lower at 3900
b. Macro outlook is souring despite strong data
c. Some of the biggest stocks slip after disappointing earnings
4. Vanguard:
a. Valuations are too high
b. The risk premium in the stock market is too low.
Bullish Comments:-
1. Trade Smith:
a. Sell In May And Buy In November
b. Now’s one of the best times in a long while, to begin shopping for stocks.
2. Jeff Clark:
a. Buy Stocks Now. Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 is only 23
b. Don’t let fear keep your portfolio on the sidelines. The odds point to the makings of a rally beginning soon.
3. Raymond James:
Five five reasons to remained optimistic towards stocks:-
a. The end of the Fed's tightening cycle
b. Lower interest rates
c. Solid mega-cap tech earnings
d. Year-end seasonals
e. Bearish sentiment flashes contrarian signal
Finally, the US Treasury will be auctioning $112 billion in debt. This is to refund $102 billion of notes set to mature on Nov. 15. Thus, they would be raising around $10b in extra funds.
The auction changes are important to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (33% from 36% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 18% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$81 from US$85 last week from US$88 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2000 from US$2016 from US$1993;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.67 from US$3.64 from US$3.55;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$74 from US$73 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 34671 from 34102 last week from 29813 two weeks ago @ 11.27 AM on Nov 3, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "42 Fear" from "24 Extreme Fear" last week from "26 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4358 from 4117 last week from 4224 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold Sanofi (SNY)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17400 from 17172 last week from 17813 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Baidu
d. Traded China Merchants Bank
e. Sold Standard Chartered
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3018 from 2983 from 3088;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 30992 from 31259 from 32316;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1442 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 03 @ 11.18 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 152 from 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.49 from 3.47;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8247 from 7.8194 from 7.8222;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.78 from 4.77;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.36 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.29 from 7.30 from 7.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.93 from 106.42 from 106.10;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.22 from 88.76 from 87.96;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 73.69 from 72.45 from 71.78;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1385 from 1662 from 2071; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Hold, Sell or Buy ?
As expected, there was a rally in the markets. Some "experts" said that it was due to the "oversold" conditions. Others think that it was due to the "new money from the new month".
Now that we have had this rally, is it time to hold, sell or buy? Intuitively, I think that the markets would be a bit choppy until 2024. Therefore, one must need to have a very good reason to buy or hold nowadays.
"November being a seasonal strong month" or "potential window dressing activities" are not strong enough reasons to buy or hold anymore.
My trading strategy remains unchanged. I may buy extremely oversold (around 20%) brand names, for a quick profit (say 4%). Again, there's no hard & fast rule. I will have to look at the situation at that time and then decide whether I want to take that risk or not.
For this week, I hesitated on Li Ning and Yum China and both has rebounded. Instead, I bought Standard Chartered and China Merchants Bank but both did not go anywhere. Only Sanofi netted me some profits.
Anyway, the following are some bearish and bullish comments for your reference:--
Bearish Comments:-
1. Jeffery Gundlach:
a. Rates are going to fall due to a recession 1H 2024
b. Layoffs are coming. Financial and technology firms will not be spared
Stanley Druckenmiller:-
a. Betting on a bull market in short-term bonds due to growing risk of an economic meltdown
b. Betting against long-term bonds thanks to the US government’s endless need for revenues
3. Jamie Dimon:
a. The Feds could still hike rates by an additional 75 basis points
b. There's a chance that inflation is just a little stickier than people think
4. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley:
a. The S&P 500 is likely to end the year lower at 3900
b. Macro outlook is souring despite strong data
c. Some of the biggest stocks slip after disappointing earnings
4. Vanguard:
a. Valuations are too high
b. The risk premium in the stock market is too low.
Bullish Comments:-
1. Trade Smith:
a. Sell In May And Buy In November
b. Now’s one of the best times in a long while, to begin shopping for stocks.
2. Jeff Clark:
a. Buy Stocks Now. Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 is only 23
b. Don’t let fear keep your portfolio on the sidelines. The odds point to the makings of a rally beginning soon.
3. Raymond James:
Five five reasons to remained optimistic towards stocks:-
a. The end of the Fed's tightening cycle
b. Lower interest rates
c. Solid mega-cap tech earnings
d. Year-end seasonals
e. Bearish sentiment flashes contrarian signal
Finally, the US Treasury will be auctioning $112 billion in debt. This is to refund $102 billion of notes set to mature on Nov. 15. Thus, they would be raising around $10b in extra funds.
The auction changes are important to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (33% from 36% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (4 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 18% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$81 from US$85 last week from US$88 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; When will they be replenishing it?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2000 from US$2016 from US$1993;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.67 from US$3.64 from US$3.55;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$74 from US$73 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 34671 from 34102 last week from 29813 two weeks ago @ 11.27 AM on Nov 3, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "42 Fear" from "24 Extreme Fear" last week from "26 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4358 from 4117 last week from 4224 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold Sanofi (SNY)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17400 from 17172 last week from 17813 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Baidu
d. Traded China Merchants Bank
e. Sold Standard Chartered
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3018 from 2983 from 3088;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 30992 from 31259 from 32316;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1442 from 1444 from 1416:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 03 @ 11.18 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 152 from 150 from 150
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.49 from 3.47;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8247 from 7.8194 from 7.8222;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.78 from 4.77;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.36 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.29 from 7.30 from 7.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.93 from 106.42 from 106.10;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.22 from 88.76 from 87.96;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 73.69 from 72.45 from 71.78;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1385 from 1662 from 2071; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Nov 12, 2023 10:16 am
TOL @ Nov 12, 2023
US Government Shutdown (Nov 17)?
It looks like the "extreme" Republicans are digging in and we may well have a shutdown this time. The last shutdown (during Trump's time) lasted 35 days.
I'm not sure that the Senate can again pass another last-minute spending bill, like what they did on Oct 1, 2023, that allowed the US government to stay open for another 45 days (until Nov 17).
Anyway, I'm sure that the best and brightest minds are working on this issue and if they do shutdown for a month or two, it's still not the end of the world. (Just a lot of inconvenience for the citizens and the slowing US economy do not need this type of disruption).
Now how would a US government shutdown affect your investments?
1. If US interest rates rises then Bonds certainly would be hit.
2. The USD would also be stronger thus affecting Commodities too.
3. Equities would probably not be spared even-though they are anticipating a short shutdown
As mentioned two weeks ago, I was looking at the following trading ideas;-
1. Shorting Nasdaq thru PSQ and SQQQ
2. Buying Long Term US Bonds thru TLT
3. Adding China Big Techs thru 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
4. Adding HK & China Blue Chips
5. Buying Japanese Yen thru FCY and YCL
6. Shorting Japanese Equities thru EWV
7. Shorting USD Index thru UDN or hedging with FEZ
In view of this US government shutdown on Nov 17th, I have only pursued #3 and #4 only. In addition, I have also bought XLE (Energy Select ETF) since Oil has weakened.
For this week, the following are the bearish and Bullish comments:-
Bearish Comments:-
1. Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments:-
a. Stock market is likely to surge then turn drastically, when the Feds starts cutting interest rates
2. Doug Kass:-
a. Risk to technology stocks from an economic reckoning, could mean that the "Magnificent Seven" are about to fall.
3. David Rosenberg:-
a. Current stock market rally has been rather junky
b. 30-year US Treasury bonds should outperform the stock market as the Fed tightening cycle nears its end.
Bullish Comments:-
1. Trade Smith:-
The CME FedWatch tool shows investors expect the first rate cut to come in May. That’s followed by the forecasts of another cut in July, one in September and one more in December:
Falling interest rates is good news for the Financial sector:-
a. More deal flow
b. Yield curve steepening
c. Private equity (PE) resurgence
d. Mortgage underwriting
2. Zweig Breadth Thrust: Buy signal triggered on Nov 3.
3. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley: This is a bear market rally
As mentioned last week, the Treasury will be auctioning $112 billion in debt on Nov15. The auction changes are important to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.
And of course we have the US Government Shutdown on Nov 17 if they cant resolve the issue.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- No Change; (36% from 36% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 68% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$81 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Relenishing in 1Q 2024?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1953 from US$2000 from US$2016;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$22 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.60 from US$3.67 from US$3.64;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$74 from US$74 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 37350 from 34671 last week from 34102 two weeks ago @ 6.37 AM on Nov 11, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "42 Fear" from "42 Fear" last week from "24 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4415 from 4358 last week from 4117 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)
2. HK Equities - Lower. 17203 from 17400 last week from 17172 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Galaxy
d. Bought Ping An
e. Traded Baidu
f. Traded 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3039 from 3018 from 2983;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32568 from 30992 from 31259;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1445 from 1442 from 1444:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold Boustead Plantations
Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Nov 11 @ 7.05 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 151 from 152 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting interest rates to rise in Japan
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.45 from 3.48 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Money Laundering Scandal will probably lead to less demand for SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Higher; 1.07 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Fatigue; US Support may weakened due to focus on Israel now
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8107 from 7.8247 from 7.8194;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.70 from 4.74 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
d. Money Laundering Scandal will probably lead to less demand for SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.26 from 7.29 from 7.30;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.69 from 105.93 from 106.42;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.65% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.07% from 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.71 from 90.22 from 88.76;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.06 from 73.69 from 72.45;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1598 from 1385 from 1662; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
US Government Shutdown (Nov 17)?
It looks like the "extreme" Republicans are digging in and we may well have a shutdown this time. The last shutdown (during Trump's time) lasted 35 days.
I'm not sure that the Senate can again pass another last-minute spending bill, like what they did on Oct 1, 2023, that allowed the US government to stay open for another 45 days (until Nov 17).
Anyway, I'm sure that the best and brightest minds are working on this issue and if they do shutdown for a month or two, it's still not the end of the world. (Just a lot of inconvenience for the citizens and the slowing US economy do not need this type of disruption).
Now how would a US government shutdown affect your investments?
1. If US interest rates rises then Bonds certainly would be hit.
2. The USD would also be stronger thus affecting Commodities too.
3. Equities would probably not be spared even-though they are anticipating a short shutdown
As mentioned two weeks ago, I was looking at the following trading ideas;-
1. Shorting Nasdaq thru PSQ and SQQQ
2. Buying Long Term US Bonds thru TLT
3. Adding China Big Techs thru 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
4. Adding HK & China Blue Chips
5. Buying Japanese Yen thru FCY and YCL
6. Shorting Japanese Equities thru EWV
7. Shorting USD Index thru UDN or hedging with FEZ
In view of this US government shutdown on Nov 17th, I have only pursued #3 and #4 only. In addition, I have also bought XLE (Energy Select ETF) since Oil has weakened.
For this week, the following are the bearish and Bullish comments:-
Bearish Comments:-
1. Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments:-
a. Stock market is likely to surge then turn drastically, when the Feds starts cutting interest rates
2. Doug Kass:-
a. Risk to technology stocks from an economic reckoning, could mean that the "Magnificent Seven" are about to fall.
3. David Rosenberg:-
a. Current stock market rally has been rather junky
b. 30-year US Treasury bonds should outperform the stock market as the Fed tightening cycle nears its end.
Bullish Comments:-
1. Trade Smith:-
The CME FedWatch tool shows investors expect the first rate cut to come in May. That’s followed by the forecasts of another cut in July, one in September and one more in December:
Falling interest rates is good news for the Financial sector:-
a. More deal flow
b. Yield curve steepening
c. Private equity (PE) resurgence
d. Mortgage underwriting
2. Zweig Breadth Thrust: Buy signal triggered on Nov 3.
3. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley: This is a bear market rally
As mentioned last week, the Treasury will be auctioning $112 billion in debt on Nov15. The auction changes are important to investors because they could provide a window into where yields are heading.
And of course we have the US Government Shutdown on Nov 17 if they cant resolve the issue.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- No Change; (36% from 36% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 68% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$81 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (160 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Relenishing in 1Q 2024?
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$1953 from US$2000 from US$2016;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$22 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.60 from US$3.67 from US$3.64;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$74 from US$74 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 37350 from 34671 last week from 34102 two weeks ago @ 6.37 AM on Nov 11, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "42 Fear" from "42 Fear" last week from "24 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4415 from 4358 last week from 4117 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)
2. HK Equities - Lower. 17203 from 17400 last week from 17172 two weeks ago;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Galaxy
d. Bought Ping An
e. Traded Baidu
f. Traded 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3039 from 3018 from 2983;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 32568 from 30992 from 31259;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1445 from 1442 from 1444:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold Boustead Plantations
Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Nov 11 @ 7.05 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 151 from 152 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting interest rates to rise in Japan
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.45 from 3.48 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Money Laundering Scandal will probably lead to less demand for SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Higher; 1.07 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Fatigue; US Support may weakened due to focus on Israel now
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8107 from 7.8247 from 7.8194;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.70 from 4.74 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
d. Money Laundering Scandal will probably lead to less demand for SGD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.26 from 7.29 from 7.30;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.69 from 105.93 from 106.42;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How low can it go?
b. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.65% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 5.07% from 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 90.71 from 90.22 from 88.76;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.06 from 73.69 from 72.45;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1598 from 1385 from 1662; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sun Nov 19, 2023 8:05 am
TOL @ Nov 19, 2023
The Big Picture (Update)
As we are nearing the end of US Earnings Season, it's time to check on the "Big Picture" again.
1. Interest Rates:-
Things are rapidly slowing down in the US and I dont think the US economy can take another 100 bps increase in interest rates. In addition, the US government also cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they already have a huge debt to service.
BTW, UBS mentioned recently that they expect the Feds to cut interest rates next year by 275 bps. I'm waiting to buy TLT.
2. Inflation:- It should slowly decrease as "Consumer Demand" is already dropping. Hopefully, the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here.
3. USD:- The USD may continue to be strong due to the high interest rates in the US. Once, there's a feeling that they may start to reduce US interest rates, it should slowly weaken from there. It looks like this would only occur around 2Q 2024 now. I may buy some Yen at that time thru FCY and YCL.
4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. Till date, the demand from China has been quite sluggish. I'm now watching Copper and I have already owned some Gold and Oil.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China and Japan is continuing to add to the world's Liquidity. High Liquidity is always good for the stock-markets.
6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.
7. Ukraine War:- With the Israel Conflict and the US Debt Ceiling discussions, they may force Ukraine to accept a truce.
8. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" is still very strong and the VIX is quite low. However, the low VIX could be a "warning sign" and it's better to be careful with the "Magnificent Seven".
b. China and HK: Quite "Oversold" and I have been adding to my positions.
c. Japan; Some money may also flow from Japan to HK & China. I may short Japan thru the EWV when the opportunity arises.
9. US Earnings:- Forward guidance has been weak and some "experts" are saying that it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets. When that happens, I may buy some PSQ and SQQQ to short the Nasdaq.
10. Trading Tactic:- I continue to buy on any steep drop and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement. In the meantime, I need to watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till 2Q 2024.
Finally, as the markets have been quite strong, I have not seen much bearish comments lately. The "bears" are too embarrassed to show their faces as they have been so wrong for so long. However, this could also be a "contrarian indicator" so it's always good to be nimble and not to be too complacent.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 36% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (22 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. KWEB, 3033, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$76 from US$77 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1983 from US$1953 from US$2000;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$22 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.73 from US$3.60 from US$3.67;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$74 from US$74 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. 36662 from 37350 last week from 34671 two weeks ago @ 8.03 AM on Nov 18, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "58 Greed" from "42 Fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4514 from 4415 last week from 4358 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 18; Forward PE 17; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)
h. Bought Alibaba (USD)
i. Traded SEA
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17454 from 17203 from 17400;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Alibaba
d. Traded Baidu
e. Traded 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Traded JD
g. Sold Galaxy
h. Sold Ping An
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3054 from 3039 from 3018;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33585 from 32568 from 30992;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1461 from 1445 from 1442:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 18 @ 8.21 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 150 from 151 last week from 152 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.48 from 3.45 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Higher; 1.09 from 1.07 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7962 from 7.8107 from 7.8247;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.70 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.21 from 7.26 from 7.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.69 from 105.69 from 105.93;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.44% from 4.65% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.89% from 5.07% from 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.53 from 90.71 from 90.22;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.77 from 74.06 from 73.69;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1758 from 1598 from 1385; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
The Big Picture (Update)
As we are nearing the end of US Earnings Season, it's time to check on the "Big Picture" again.
1. Interest Rates:-
Things are rapidly slowing down in the US and I dont think the US economy can take another 100 bps increase in interest rates. In addition, the US government also cannot afford to raise interest rates by too much as they already have a huge debt to service.
BTW, UBS mentioned recently that they expect the Feds to cut interest rates next year by 275 bps. I'm waiting to buy TLT.
2. Inflation:- It should slowly decrease as "Consumer Demand" is already dropping. Hopefully, the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here.
3. USD:- The USD may continue to be strong due to the high interest rates in the US. Once, there's a feeling that they may start to reduce US interest rates, it should slowly weaken from there. It looks like this would only occur around 2Q 2024 now. I may buy some Yen at that time thru FCY and YCL.
4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in Global Demand. Till date, the demand from China has been quite sluggish. I'm now watching Copper and I have already owned some Gold and Oil.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China and Japan is continuing to add to the world's Liquidity. High Liquidity is always good for the stock-markets.
6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.
7. Ukraine War:- With the Israel Conflict and the US Debt Ceiling discussions, they may force Ukraine to accept a truce.
8. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" is still very strong and the VIX is quite low. However, the low VIX could be a "warning sign" and it's better to be careful with the "Magnificent Seven".
b. China and HK: Quite "Oversold" and I have been adding to my positions.
c. Japan; Some money may also flow from Japan to HK & China. I may short Japan thru the EWV when the opportunity arises.
9. US Earnings:- Forward guidance has been weak and some "experts" are saying that it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets. When that happens, I may buy some PSQ and SQQQ to short the Nasdaq.
10. Trading Tactic:- I continue to buy on any steep drop and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement. In the meantime, I need to watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till 2Q 2024.
Finally, as the markets have been quite strong, I have not seen much bearish comments lately. The "bears" are too embarrassed to show their faces as they have been so wrong for so long. However, this could also be a "contrarian indicator" so it's always good to be nimble and not to be too complacent.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 36% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (22 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. KWEB, 3033, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, ASM Pacific etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$76 from US$77 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$1983 from US$1953 from US$2000;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$22 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.73 from US$3.60 from US$3.67;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$74 from US$74 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. 36662 from 37350 last week from 34671 two weeks ago @ 8.03 AM on Nov 18, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "58 Greed" from "42 Fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4514 from 4415 last week from 4358 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 18; Forward PE 17; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)
h. Bought Alibaba (USD)
i. Traded SEA
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17454 from 17203 from 17400;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Alibaba
d. Traded Baidu
e. Traded 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Traded JD
g. Sold Galaxy
h. Sold Ping An
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3054 from 3039 from 3018;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33585 from 32568 from 30992;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1461 from 1445 from 1442:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 18 @ 8.21 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 150 from 151 last week from 152 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.48 from 3.45 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Higher; 1.09 from 1.07 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7962 from 7.8107 from 7.8247;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.70 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.21 from 7.26 from 7.29;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.69 from 105.69 from 105.93;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor property companies seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.44% from 4.65% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.89% from 5.07% from 5.06%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.53 from 90.71 from 90.22;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.77 from 74.06 from 73.69;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1758 from 1598 from 1385; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 23)
by winston » Sat Nov 25, 2023 9:52 pm
TOL @ Nov 25, 2023
Overbought Markets?
The CNN "Greed & Fear: Index is now touching 68 (Greed) from 42 (Fear), just two weeks ago.
What has really changed in that 2-3 weeks? Has things really gotten that much better in that 2-3 weeks?
Therefore, I think that the markets are a now bit "overbought" and I will not hesitate to take any small profits, say 3%.
I will even sell a losing position if it runs up a lot, say 7%, with the hope of buying it back later at a lower price, say 4% cheaper. ((My timing could be wrong and the counter could continue to rise but it's a risk that I'm willing to take, in this type of choppy market).
As mentioned last week, since the market has been quite strong over the past 2 weeks, all the bears dare not show their face for the time being. So we have been seeing only bullish comments including the following:-
1. RBC: The S&P 500 will rally to a record high next year, helped by positive sentiment and resilient valuations,
2. Bank of America: S&P 500 closing 2023 about 10% higher, as companies have adapted to higher rates and weathered macroeconomic jolts.
3. Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale: Index flirting with a record high.
4. Morgan Stanley: Turned more constructive for the next year.
I think that the next catalyst for the markets would be the "Year End Window Dressing" activities. This will probably happen in about 2-3 weeks time.
Therefore, I think that the markets would be quite directionless with a downside bias, over the next 2-3 weeks, except for the spike from the new money from the new month at the beginning of December.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (36% from 41% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75 from US$76 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2004 from US$1983 from US$1953;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.79 from US$3.73 from US$3.60;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$80 from US$74 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 37395 from 36662 last week from 37350 two weeks ago @ 10.15 AM on Nov 24, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "68 Greed" from "58 Greed" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4559 from 4514 last week from 4415 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 18; Forward PE 17; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17559 from 17454 from 17203;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
d. Bought Xiaomi
e. Sold 1/2 Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 JD
g. Sold ASM Pacific
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3041 from 3054 from 3039;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33626 from 33585 from 32568;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1454 from 1461 from 1445:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 24 @ 9.50 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.48 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7991 from 7.7962 from 7.8107;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.68 from 4.67 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.13 from 7.21 from 7.26;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 103.68 from 103.69 from 105.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.47% from 4.44% from 4.65%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.96% from 4.89% from 5.07%
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.95 from 91.53 from 90.71;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.08 from 74.77 from 74.06;
Baltic Dry Index - Flat; 1755 from 1758 from 1598; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Overbought Markets?
The CNN "Greed & Fear: Index is now touching 68 (Greed) from 42 (Fear), just two weeks ago.
What has really changed in that 2-3 weeks? Has things really gotten that much better in that 2-3 weeks?
Therefore, I think that the markets are a now bit "overbought" and I will not hesitate to take any small profits, say 3%.
I will even sell a losing position if it runs up a lot, say 7%, with the hope of buying it back later at a lower price, say 4% cheaper. ((My timing could be wrong and the counter could continue to rise but it's a risk that I'm willing to take, in this type of choppy market).
As mentioned last week, since the market has been quite strong over the past 2 weeks, all the bears dare not show their face for the time being. So we have been seeing only bullish comments including the following:-
1. RBC: The S&P 500 will rally to a record high next year, helped by positive sentiment and resilient valuations,
2. Bank of America: S&P 500 closing 2023 about 10% higher, as companies have adapted to higher rates and weathered macroeconomic jolts.
3. Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale: Index flirting with a record high.
4. Morgan Stanley: Turned more constructive for the next year.
I think that the next catalyst for the markets would be the "Year End Window Dressing" activities. This will probably happen in about 2-3 weeks time.
Therefore, I think that the markets would be quite directionless with a downside bias, over the next 2-3 weeks, except for the spike from the new money from the new month at the beginning of December.
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (36% from 41% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75 from US$76 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+ to cut 3.7m bpd = 3.4% Global Demand
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Dec 2023
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Extending 300k bpd cut till Dec 2023
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2004 from US$1983 from US$1953;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.79 from US$3.73 from US$3.60;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$80 from US$74 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 37395 from 36662 last week from 37350 two weeks ago @ 10.15 AM on Nov 24, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "68 Greed" from "58 Greed" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4559 from 4514 last week from 4415 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 18; Forward PE 17; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17559 from 17454 from 17203;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
d. Bought Xiaomi
e. Sold 1/2 Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 JD
g. Sold ASM Pacific
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3041 from 3054 from 3039;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33626 from 33585 from 32568;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1454 from 1461 from 1445:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 24 @ 9.50 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 150 from 150 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.48 from 3.45;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7991 from 7.7962 from 7.8107;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.68 from 4.67 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.13 from 7.21 from 7.26;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 103.68 from 103.69 from 105.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.47% from 4.44% from 4.65%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.96% from 4.89% from 5.07%
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 91.95 from 91.53 from 90.71;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.08 from 74.77 from 74.06;
Baltic Dry Index - Flat; 1755 from 1758 from 1598; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 23)
by winston » Sun Dec 03, 2023 8:04 pm
TOL @ Dec 03, 2023
New Money From The New Month
It's a new month again so there should be a spike in the markets, unless the Fund Managers have already spent the money in advance, over the past few days.
Thereafter, I'm expecting a lull in the markets until "Window Dressing" time.
There's also some "Tax-Loss Selling" for the counters that have not been doing well.
The above applies more to the US markets.
As for HK & China, I still believed that they are quite "oversold" and I will not hesitate to buy whenever there's a sharp dip, for a quick trade. It cant seemed to move from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold" market.
Anyway, I dont think the markets would be going anywhere till Dec 13 (FOMC Meeting). I'm also not expecting Powell to increase interest rates and in the event that he does, it's still not the end of the world.
For this week, the following are some of the bearish comments:-
1. JPMorgan:-
a. S&P 500 will fall next year amid 'challenging macro backdrop'
b. Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated
2. Nouriel Roubini:-
a. The market 'bloodbath is likely to continue'
b. Investors set to lose tens of trillions over next decade
3. Gary Shilling:-
a. Expects a 30% crash in stocks, a recession and a commercial real estate collapse.
b. Has been very wrong for years with his dire predictions
And the following are the bullish comment:-
1. Tom Lee: Stocks Have Positive Tailwinds Heading Into Year-End
2. Daily Wealth: As long as unemployment stays low, there's only a low probability of a crash
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (42% from 36% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$75 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2073 from US$2004 from US$1983;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.92 from US$3.79 from US$3.73;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$81 from US$80 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 38502 from 37395 last week from 36662 two weeks ago @ 8.40 PM on Dec 01, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "67 Greed" from "68 Greed" last week from "58 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16830 from 17559 from 17454;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
d. Bought China Overseas Land
e. Added to Baidu
f. Added to Meituan
g. Added to Vitasoy
h. Traded L'Occitane
i. Traded Galaxy
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3032 from 3041 from 3054;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33432 from 33626 from 33585;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1456 from 1454 from 1461:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Capital A
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 01 @ 8.25 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 148 from 150 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=1
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.50 from 3.49 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8136 from 7.7991 from 7.7962;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.68 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.13 from 7.21;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.31 from 103.68 from 103.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.21% from 4.47% from 4.44%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.96% from 4.89% from 5.07%
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.67 from 91.95 from 91.53;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.70 from 75.08 from 74.77;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2937 from 1755 from 1758; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
New Money From The New Month
It's a new month again so there should be a spike in the markets, unless the Fund Managers have already spent the money in advance, over the past few days.
Thereafter, I'm expecting a lull in the markets until "Window Dressing" time.
There's also some "Tax-Loss Selling" for the counters that have not been doing well.
The above applies more to the US markets.
As for HK & China, I still believed that they are quite "oversold" and I will not hesitate to buy whenever there's a sharp dip, for a quick trade. It cant seemed to move from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold" market.
Anyway, I dont think the markets would be going anywhere till Dec 13 (FOMC Meeting). I'm also not expecting Powell to increase interest rates and in the event that he does, it's still not the end of the world.
For this week, the following are some of the bearish comments:-
1. JPMorgan:-
a. S&P 500 will fall next year amid 'challenging macro backdrop'
b. Equities are now richly valued with volatility near the historical low, while geopolitical and political risks remain elevated
2. Nouriel Roubini:-
a. The market 'bloodbath is likely to continue'
b. Investors set to lose tens of trillions over next decade
3. Gary Shilling:-
a. Expects a 30% crash in stocks, a recession and a commercial real estate collapse.
b. Has been very wrong for years with his dire predictions
And the following are the bullish comment:-
1. Tom Lee: Stocks Have Positive Tailwinds Heading Into Year-End
2. Daily Wealth: As long as unemployment stays low, there's only a low probability of a crash
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (42% from 36% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$75 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2073 from US$2004 from US$1983;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.92 from US$3.79 from US$3.73;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$81 from US$80 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 38502 from 37395 last week from 36662 two weeks ago @ 8.40 PM on Dec 01, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "67 Greed" from "68 Greed" last week from "58 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16830 from 17559 from 17454;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
d. Bought China Overseas Land
e. Added to Baidu
f. Added to Meituan
g. Added to Vitasoy
h. Traded L'Occitane
i. Traded Galaxy
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3032 from 3041 from 3054;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33432 from 33626 from 33585;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1456 from 1454 from 1461:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Capital A
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 01 @ 8.25 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 148 from 150 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=1
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.50 from 3.49 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8136 from 7.7991 from 7.7962;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.68 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.13 from 7.21;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.31 from 103.68 from 103.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.21% from 4.47% from 4.44%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.96% from 4.89% from 5.07%
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.67 from 91.95 from 91.53;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.70 from 75.08 from 74.77;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2937 from 1755 from 1758; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118900
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 23)
by winston » Sun Dec 10, 2023 9:15 am
TOL @ Dec 10, 2023
Early Santa Rally?
The US markets have had a very strong November and people are starting to wonder whether that November rally can continue into the traditional "Year End Window Dressing" and "Santa Rally".
As mentioned, I think that there could be a lull in the markets until Dec 13 (FOMC Meeting). Thereafter, I think that the markets can continue to grind higher during "Window Dressing Season", until early Jan 2024.
BTW, I have been slowly increasing my exposure to Equities over the past two weeks, especially in HK, where I think that they are quite oversold.
I'm also waiting for the retracement in the Bond ETFs to initiate some positions. I will not chase Bonds at this level. I have avoided bonds for three decades and I'm starting to think that it's a good bet from here, for a few years.
For this week, the following are some of the bearish comments:-
1. Investor Place: Signs of stress in the markets and the economy
a. U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings hit a 12-year high this year.
b. The number of corporations defaulting on their debt is accelerating.
c. High interest rates and elevated inflation still worry millions of Americans and business leaders.
d. 84% of CEOs thinks that a recession will happen in the next 12 months
e. 50% of Wall Street thinks a recession is inevitable
f. 69% of American consumers are predicting a recession in 2024
g. Israel - Gaza conflict
h. Ukraine - Russian war
2. JPM:-
a. The S&P 500 is likely to tumble 23% to 3,500 points by mid-2024
b. Views a US recession as very likely
c. Cash and Treasury bonds are safer bets than stocks today.
3. Invesco:-
a. Expects US to cut rates from end of 1H24
b. Geopolitical Risks still relatively high
4. Jim Bianco:-
a. Cutting rates now would risk juicing the economy, potentially resulting in a new flare up of inflation, risking a repeat of the 1970s.
And the following are some of the bullish comments this week:-
1. Investor Place: The data are increasingly supportive of a best-case outcome
a. Inflation is falling
b. The U.S. consumer is hanging in there
c. Wage inflation is easing
d. The labor market is normalizing
2. Citi:-
a. We’re projecting no recession, rather a slowing of the economy
b. There would be a reacceleration in the second half of 2024 into 2025
3. HSBC:-
a. Expects the Feds to start cutting rates in 3Q24
b. Improved outlook for Stock & Bond Markets
4. Bill Ackman:-
a. The Fed will pivot to cuts in 2024 and it needs to be done ASAP
Next week, the following are some of the important events:-
1. Dec 13: FOMC Meeting
2. Dec 15: China Central Economic Work Conference
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (48% from 42% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 61% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$75 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2021 from US$2073 from US$2004;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$25 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.83 from US$3.92 from US$3.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$81 from US$81 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 43446 from 38502 last week from 37395 two weeks ago @ 2.34 PM on Dec 08, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "68 Greed" from "67 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4600, 4725, 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16830 from 17559 from 17454;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought HKEX
d. Added to AIA
e. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
f. Added to JD
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3032 from 3041 from 3054;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33432 from 33626 from 33585;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1456 from 1454 from 1461:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Malaysian Airport
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 08 @ 2.15 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 1.44 from 148 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.49 from 3.50 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8104 from 7.8136 from 7.7991;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.67 from 4.67 from 4.68;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.14 from 7.11 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.63 from 103.31 from 103.68;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.23% from 4.21% from 4.47%%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.72% from 4.96% from 4.89%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.95 from 92.67 from 91.95;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.99 from 75.70 from 75.08;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2494 from 2937 from 1755; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Early Santa Rally?
The US markets have had a very strong November and people are starting to wonder whether that November rally can continue into the traditional "Year End Window Dressing" and "Santa Rally".
As mentioned, I think that there could be a lull in the markets until Dec 13 (FOMC Meeting). Thereafter, I think that the markets can continue to grind higher during "Window Dressing Season", until early Jan 2024.
BTW, I have been slowly increasing my exposure to Equities over the past two weeks, especially in HK, where I think that they are quite oversold.
I'm also waiting for the retracement in the Bond ETFs to initiate some positions. I will not chase Bonds at this level. I have avoided bonds for three decades and I'm starting to think that it's a good bet from here, for a few years.
For this week, the following are some of the bearish comments:-
1. Investor Place: Signs of stress in the markets and the economy
a. U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings hit a 12-year high this year.
b. The number of corporations defaulting on their debt is accelerating.
c. High interest rates and elevated inflation still worry millions of Americans and business leaders.
d. 84% of CEOs thinks that a recession will happen in the next 12 months
e. 50% of Wall Street thinks a recession is inevitable
f. 69% of American consumers are predicting a recession in 2024
g. Israel - Gaza conflict
h. Ukraine - Russian war
2. JPM:-
a. The S&P 500 is likely to tumble 23% to 3,500 points by mid-2024
b. Views a US recession as very likely
c. Cash and Treasury bonds are safer bets than stocks today.
3. Invesco:-
a. Expects US to cut rates from end of 1H24
b. Geopolitical Risks still relatively high
4. Jim Bianco:-
a. Cutting rates now would risk juicing the economy, potentially resulting in a new flare up of inflation, risking a repeat of the 1970s.
And the following are some of the bullish comments this week:-
1. Investor Place: The data are increasingly supportive of a best-case outcome
a. Inflation is falling
b. The U.S. consumer is hanging in there
c. Wage inflation is easing
d. The labor market is normalizing
2. Citi:-
a. We’re projecting no recession, rather a slowing of the economy
b. There would be a reacceleration in the second half of 2024 into 2025
3. HSBC:-
a. Expects the Feds to start cutting rates in 3Q24
b. Improved outlook for Stock & Bond Markets
4. Bill Ackman:-
a. The Fed will pivot to cuts in 2024 and it needs to be done ASAP
Next week, the following are some of the important events:-
1. Dec 13: FOMC Meeting
2. Dec 15: China Central Economic Work Conference
Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (48% from 42% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 61% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$75 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2021 from US$2073 from US$2004;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$25 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$3.83 from US$3.92 from US$3.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$81 from US$81 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. 43446 from 38502 last week from 37395 two weeks ago @ 2.34 PM on Dec 08, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "68 Greed" from "67 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4600, 4725, 4800;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16830 from 17559 from 17454;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought HKEX
d. Added to AIA
e. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
f. Added to JD
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3032 from 3041 from 3054;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33432 from 33626 from 33585;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1456 from 1454 from 1461:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Malaysian Airport
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 08 @ 2.15 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 1.44 from 148 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.49 from 3.50 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8104 from 7.8136 from 7.7991;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.67 from 4.67 from 4.68;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.14 from 7.11 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.63 from 103.31 from 103.68;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.23% from 4.21% from 4.47%%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.72% from 4.96% from 4.89%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.95 from 92.67 from 91.95;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.99 from 75.70 from 75.08;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2494 from 2937 from 1755; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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