Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)

by **winston** » Sun Dec 17, 2023 9:14 am

TOL @ Dec 17, 2023

Window.jpg

Window Dressing Season?

We are now in the middle of December and we are probably in the "Year End Window Dressing" season.

During this time, the Fund Managers would normally be buying additional shares in the companies that are doing well in their portfolio. This is to boost their portfolio return before the Dec 31st numbers are published.

For counters that are not doing well in their portfolio, the Fund Managers would normally sell some of them. The Fund Managers may buy back some of those counters in early January, depending on the situation at that time.

There's also "Tax Loss Selling" at this time. To pay lower 'capital gains tax", some investors may realize some capital losses, to offset it against those stocks with realized gains. Therefore, stocks that are doing well for the year would probably continue to rise and vice-versa.

In view of the above, I may not be taking profits on some of my stocks and may ride them till the last week of December. It depends on their daily appreciation as well as their valuation.

For this week, I have sold some of my HK shares for small profits, in view of the strong rally. I had to replenish some of my HK$ Cash as I have virtually used up all my HK$ Cash in the previous week (when HK was plunging at that time).

Finally, the following are some comments on the market for this week:-

1. Jeremy Grantham: Stocks are in a bubble and could plunge by over 50%

2. Ed Yardeni: The S&P 500 will surge to 6,000 in 2025 in a ‘Roaring 2020s’ scenario

3. Bill Ackman: The Fed will pivot to cuts in 2024 and it needs to be done ASAP

For next week, if the markets continue to rally strongly, I may continue to take some more small profits and to raise some Cash level.

Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (45% from 48% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 59% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$72 from US$74 last week from US$75 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2034 from US$2021 from US$2073;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$24 from US$23 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.88 from US$3.83 from US$3.92;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$82 from US$81 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Monitoring URA, SRUUF and URNM

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 41988 from 43446 last week from 38502 two weeks ago @ 6.30 AM on Dec 16, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Was the price increase due to the higher cybersecurity incidences?
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "67 Greed" from "68 Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16792 from 16830 from 17559;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold Xiaomi
d. Sold 1/2 AIA
e. Sold 1/2 JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2943 from 3032 from 3041;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 32971 from 33432 from 33626;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1462 from 1456 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Traded Eco World Warrants

Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 16 @ 10.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 1.42 from 1.44 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.50 from 3.49 from 3.50;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8057 from 7.8104 from 7.8136;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.67 from 4.67 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.12 from 7.14 from 7.11;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 102.22 from 103.63 from 103.31;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.92% from 4.23% from 4.21%

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.45% from 4.72% from 4.96%

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.66 from 92.95 from 92.67;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.95 from 75.99 from 75.70 ;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2348 from 2494 from 2937; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 2:46 pm

TOL @ Dec 25, 2023

XMAS.jpeg

Merry X'mas & Happy Holidays!

It's Xmas so it's timely to review what the "Santa Rally" is:-
The Santa Rally is defined as the rally that goes on for the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year.

Some of the reasons given for the Santa Rally include:-
1. Slow down in tax-loss harvesting
2. General feeling of optimism and seasonal happiness
3. Retail investors investing their holiday bonuses
4. Window Dressing activities
5. Buying in anticipation of the "January Effect"
etc.

Anyway, the US markets have been fairly strong for the past week while HK has been quite weak again.

Therefore, I have again increased my exposure to HK as well as the "US Listed China Counters".

I still feel very strongly that the HK is quite oversold so I'm forcing myself to increase my exposure there, even-though the self-inflicted issues are continuing.

I think that if I take a 2-3 years time frame, it should be ok to buy the "oversold" HK market.

In the meantime, some of the "cheap" counters are getting "cheaper" and I'm averaging down again.

A "pure" trader would never average down. Instead, he would quickly cut his losses after 2 or 3 days and never have a losing position over the weekend.

However, I'm not really a "pure trader" so I'm averaging down when I see a "fundamentally sound" counter being quite oversold.

At the same time, I need to be mindful of my "Cash Level'. I'm starting to use up some of my Cash.

However, I did intentionally kept a higher level of Cash in the first place, for the opportunity to buy when things are "oversold", like in HK right now.

Finally, for next few days, I think that the markets can be a bit strong as there could be some last minute "window dressing" activity, as well as the mentioned "Santa Rally".

Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (53% from 45% last week from 48% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. KWEB, 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$73 from US$72 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2065 from US$2034 from US$2021;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.90 from US$3.88 from US$3.83;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$86 from US$82 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 45653 from 41988 last week from 43446 two weeks ago @ 8.13 PM on Dec 23, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "77 Extreme Greed" from "67 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4595 from 4559 last week from 4514 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Nike
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16340 from 16792 from 16830;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added To Tencent
d. Added to Sensetime
e. Bought Netease

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2915 from 2943 from 3032;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33169 from 32971 from 33432;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1454 from 1462 from 1456:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought Hume Cement Indutries

Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 23 @ 4.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 142 from 142 last week from 144 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.52 from 3.50 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Higher; 0.68 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8129 from 7.8057 from 7.8104;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.66 from 4.67 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.32 from 1.33 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.13 from 7.12 from 7.14;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.36 from 102.22 from 103.63;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.90% from 3.92% from 4.23%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.33% from 4.45% from 4.72%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.84 from 94.66 from 92.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.47 from 76.95 from 75.99;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2094 from 2348 from 2494; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Mon Jan 01, 2024 9:00 am

TOL @ Jan 1, 2024

2024.jpg

New Money & January Effect

Happy 2024!

It's a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets early in the week unless the fund managers have already spent their Cash in advance last week, especially in HK & China where the markets rallied strongly.

We supposedly also have the continuation of the "Santa Rally" for the first two trading days of 2024.

In addition, the "January Effect" will supposedly be coming into play too, until about mid-January. This is where smaller cap stocks are expected to rise because they have already been harvested for tax-losses, general feeling of optimism, investments of bonuses etc.

The above applies more to the US markets but the direction of the US markets does affect the rest of the world.

From mid-January to end-January, the US markets could be in a tight range until we have the FOMC Meeting on Jan 31st.

At this point in time, everyone is expecting the Feds to be dovish and US Interest Rates to start dropping in the next few months.

In addition, this is an election year and the Biden Administration would surely like to see more Liquidity in the markets.

I still think that HK & China is oversold and any sharp dip should be bought eg. last week's collapse due to the draft computer games regulation where Netease dropped about 25%, Tencent dropped 12% etc.

In addition, some of the CNY bonuses would also be finding it's way into the Asian stock-markets.

My trading strategy remains the same:-
1. Do not chase the "Magnificent Seven" in the US
2. Buy the sharp dips especially in HK & China and sell on the rebound
3. Wait for the pullback in bonds to initiate positions
4. Watch the Commodities especially Copper
5. Increase equities exposure to EAFE
6. Wait for the pullback in the US Small & Mid Caps

Finally, I should also remind myself that there's currently two major wars, the US Economy is slowing rapidly, China and Europe is still in the doldrums, Interest Rates and Inflation are still elevated etc.

Therefore, there's no need to chase things and I must wait for the set-up to emerge first before betting heavily. In the meantime, interest rates are fairly high and there's no real need to take unnecessary risks.

May you have a fantastic trading year ahead!

Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (46% from 53% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$71 from US$73 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2072 from US$2065 from US$2034;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$24 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.89 from US$3.90 from US$3.88;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$91 from US$86 last week from US$82 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 42029 from 45653 last week from 41988 two weeks ago @ 7.51 AM on Dec 30, 2023
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "76 Extreme Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4770 from 4595 last week from 4559 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold KWEB (China Internet ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17047 from 16340 from 16792;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold 2/3 Tencent
d. Sold Netease
e. Sold HKEX

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2975 from 2915 from 2943;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 33464 from 33169 from 32971;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1455 from 1454 from 1462:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade

Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 29 @ 3.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 141 from 142 last week from 142 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.52 from 3.50;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.68 from 0.68 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.11 from 1.10 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8139 from 7.8129 from 7.8057;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.59 from 4.66 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.32 from 1.32 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.09 from 7.13 from 7.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 100.87 from 101.36 from 102.22;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.87% from 3.90% from 3.92%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.25% from 4.33% from 4.45%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.84 from 94.66 from 92.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.68 from 77.47 from 76.95;

Baltic Dry Index - Flat; 2094 from 2094 from 2348; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 07, 2024 11:11 am

TOL @ Jan 7, 2024

earnings.png

Next Catalyst: US Earnings Season?

The markets were weak this week with the exception of Bursa.

I was expecting the "new money from the new month" and the "January Effect" to provide a spike in the markets this week. However, it looks like the Fund Managers may have spent their Cash in advance for "Window Dressing" purposes.

Anyway, everyone is now waiting for the US Earnings Season starting next next week, to provide some catalyst for the markets to move higher. Thereafter, it would be the FOMC Meeting on Jan 31st.

In the meantime, there was a good article on Yahoo Finance which discussed the "9 economic trends to watch in 2024".
1. Labor market: How cool will it get?
2. Inflation: Is the worst behind us?
3. Monetary policy: Tight for how long?
4. Sentiment: Finally a vibe-spansion?
5. Economic growth: Slowdown, recession, or something else?
6. Corporate profit margins: Will they hold up?
7. Interest expense: Will it become a problem?
8. Corporate earnings: Better or worse than the growth expected?
9. Stock market: Will it do what it usually does?

I didnt trade at all this week as there was no real set-up.

Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (46% from 46% last week from 53% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 51% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74 from US$71 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2053 from US$2072 from US$2065;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$23 from US$24 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.80 from US$3.89 from US$3.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$91 from US$91 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 44137 from 42029 last week from 45653 two weeks ago @ 7.31 AM on Jan 06, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "74 Extreme Greed" from "76 Extreme Greed" last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4697 from 4770 last week from 4595 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16535 from 17047 from 16340;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2929 from 2975 from 2915;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33377 from 33464 from 33169;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1488 from 1455 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will assume the role of the 17th Yang di-Pertuan Agong on Jan 31, 2024.
c. No Trade

Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 06 @ 11.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 145 from 141 last week from 142 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.50 from 3.48 from 3.52;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.68 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.11 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8131 from 7.8139 from 7.8129;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.66 from 4.59 from 4.66;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.33 from 1.32 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.12 from 7.09 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.15 from 100.87 from 101.36;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.05% from 3.87% from 3.90%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.39% from 4.25% from 4.33%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.88 from 94.84 from 94.66;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.68 from 77.68 from 77.47;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2110 from 2094 from 2094; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 14, 2024 9:19 am

TOL @ Jan 14, 2024

Same old.jpg

Same Old, Same Old?

The US and Malaysian markets have been grinding higher this week, while HK & China, have been weak again.

With the US Earnings season underway, I have a strange feeling that things may not be that smooth sailing for the next few weeks.

US Earnings Expectations are quite high and things seems to be priced for perfection.

If the current Red Sea conflict starts to spin out of control, Oil prices could also spike up. (I dont think that the world has priced in a regional war yet).

On the interest rates front, interest rates could stay elevated for a while and the expected rates cut in 1Q may not materialize unless there's a full blown crisis.

In view of the above, I need to remind myself to be not so adventurous. Even-though I have been concentrating my portfolio on HK & China as they are "oversold", any crash in the US would also bring the HK & China shares down by about 10% to 15%.

For next week, I think that it would be the "same old, same old" situation. Maybe that's not too bad either as the alternative is a full blown crash, triggered by some regional war in the Red Sea.

Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (45% from 46% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 56% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 34% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 10% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$73 from US$74 last week from US$71 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Flat. US$2054 from US$2053 last week from US$2072;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$24;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.74 from US$3.80 from US$3.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$93 from US$91 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 42785 from 44137 last week from 42029 two weeks ago @ 9.40 AM on Jan 13, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "71 Greed" from "74 Extreme Greed" last week from "76 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4784 from 4697 last week from 4770 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16215 from 16535 from 17047;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16000; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2929 from 2975 from 2915;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 33377 from 33464 from 33169;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1488 from 1455 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will assume the role of the 17th Yang di-Pertuan Agong on Jan 31, 2024.
c. Sold Capital A
d. Sold MAHB

Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Jan 12 @ 1.58 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 145 from 145 last week from 141 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.49 from 3.50 from 3.48;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.09 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8182 from 7.8131 from 7.8139;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.64 from 4.66 from 4.59;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.33 from 1.33 from 1.32 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.15 from 7.12 from 7.09;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.98 from 102.15 last week from 100.87 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.94% from 4.05% from 3.87%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.15% from 4.39% from 4.25%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.99 from 93.88 from 94.84;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.61 from 76.68 from 77.68;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1554 from 2110 from 2094; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 21, 2024 9:50 am

TOL @ Jan 21, 2024

Same old.jpg

Same Old, Same Old (Part 2)

The US and Japanese markets were hitting record highs while HK & China were hitting lows again.

As expected, I was again adding to my HK holdings in view of the sell-off in HK. As mentioned, this tactical trading strategy is a dangerous one and a "pure trader" would not be doing what I'm currently doing. Anyway, I will probably sell at the 50% retracement as I think that HK is just too "oversold". And if I'm able to control my emotions and wait for a few years, my gut feel is that if I could be quite well rewarded. (I have this bad habit of taking small profits).

As for the US and Japan, I think that their "bull run" cannot continue for too long. In fact, one of the biggest bull on Wall Street, Tom Lee of Fundstrat, has turned a bit bearish recently. He's now bracing for a 7% drop in the stock market after this month. That's due to uncertainty over a potential recession and Fed rate cuts this year. However, over the course of the year, Tom Lee remains bullish on the stock market.

And to frighten you a bit more, Bloomberg had a recent article titled ," A Pessimist’s Guide to Global Economic Risks in 2024":-
1. The Middle East Is On the Brink
2. The Fed Could Get Burned (Again)
3. Europe Is Feeling the Chill
4. China Looks Wobbly
5. Japan Risks Losing (Yield Curve) Control
6. Ukraine at a Tipping Point
7. Game-Changing Elections in Taiwan
8. US Presidential Election

However, there are also some "bullish articles" too and the following is on Energy from "Market 360":-
Four Reasons to be Bullish on the Energy Sector
1. Severe Winter Weather
2. Dropping Oil Inventories
3. Escalating Tensions in the Middle East
4. The Fourth-Quarter Earnings Season

There was also a recent article in the Wall Street Journal titled: "The $8.8 Trillion Cash Pile That Has Stock-Market Bulls Salivating".

And a final bullish article from Investor Place:-
The fact is that 2024 is shaping up to be a perfect storm: strong seasonal factors, fizzling inflation, an improving earnings environment, an accommodative Fed, falling interest rates, an economic growth resurgence and a presidential election cycle.

For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. US: PCE Inflation (Jan 26)
2. Malaysia: Will Najib be pardoned?

Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (49% from 45% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 9% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$73 from US$73 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2032 from US$2054 last week from US$2053 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.79 from US$3.74 from US$3.80;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$106 from US$93 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. 41073 from 42785 last week from 44137 two weeks ago @ 11.11 AM on Jan 19, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "72 greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "74 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4840 from 4784 last week from 4697 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 15309 from 16215 from 16535;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
d. Added to Baidu
e. Added to Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2832 from 2929 from 2975;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 35963 from 33377 from 33464;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1488 from 1455 from 1454:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will be the new Agong on Jan 31, 2024.
c. No Trade

Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Jan 19 @ 11.13 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 148 from 145 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.51 from 3.49 from 3.50;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8217 from 7.8182 from 7.8131;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.71 from 4.64 from 4.66;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.34 from 1.33 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.16 from 7.15 from 7.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.13 from 101.98 last week from 102.15 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.13% from 3.94% from 4.05%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.39% from 4.15% from 4.39%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.28 from 94.99 from 93.88;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.03 from 77.61 from 76.68;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1357 from 1554 from 2110; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 28, 2024 10:16 am

TOL @ Jan 21, 2024

Feb.jpeg

New Money From the New Month

It will be a new month again and new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets next week.

For the US markets, it would continued to be driven by earnings season.

For HK & China, I think that it's close to the bottom or maybe even have touched bottom already. The question is what would be the catalyst for it to rise from here.

For this week, as the US markets have been touching new highs, there were not too many bearish articles except for the following:-
1. UBS - Downside scenario for a S&P 500 crash of more than 20%
a. A potential recession
b. Rising inflation and
c. Geopolitical turmoil

While we have a few bullish articles:-

1. Meb Faber, CEO, Cambria Investments:-
a. Is buying stocks at an all-time high a good idea? It is not a good idea but a GREAT idea
b. Remain in stocks if they’re trading at all-time highs at the end of the month.
c. If they’re not at all-time highs, then move into government bonds

2. Daily Wealth: Stocks are set to head higher this year because good years tend to follow good years.
a. Last year, stocks rose 26% and 2023’s strong finish tells us stocks could jump 19% this year.
b. Good years follow good years. A powerful year-end rally all but ensures more gains will follow.

For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. US: Jan 30 & 31: FOMC Meeting
2. Malaysia: Jan 31 - Sultan Ibrahim will be the new Agung

Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (52% from 49% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 8% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$73 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2018 from US$2032 last week from US$2054 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.85 from US$3.79 from US$3.74;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$106 from US$106 last week from US$93 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 41874 from 41073 last week from 42785 two weeks ago @ 6.24 AM on Jan 27, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "77 Extreme Greed: from "72 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4891 from 4840 last week from 4784 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800; 4825;
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 19; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought Archer Daniel Midland (ADM)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 15952 from 15309 from 16215;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Lenovo
d. Sold 1/4 Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2910 from 2832 from 2929;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 35751 from 35963 from 33377;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1506 from 1488 from 1455:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sultan Ibrahim will be the new Agung on Jan 31, 2024.
c. Traded YNH

Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Jan 26 @ 5.25PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 148 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.52 from 3.51 from 3.49;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7878 from 7.8217 from 7.8182;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.71 from 4.71 from 4.64;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.13 from 7.16 from 7.15;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.31 from 103.13 last week from 101.98 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.14% from 4.13% from 3.94%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.36% from 4.39% from 4.15%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.13 from 94.28 from 94.99;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.68 from 77.03 from 77.61;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1499 from 1357 from 1554; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Feb 04, 2024 7:30 am

TOL @ Feb 04, 2024

CNY Rally.jpeg

Will There Be A CNY Rally?

The US markets are making new highs again while HK & China are still weak.

I remained over-weighted in HK & China but I'm aware that a correction in the US markets can also trigger a sharp dip in HK & China.

If there's a 10% to 20% additional decline in HK & China, it can also trigger a lot of margin calls there.

My exposure to Equities is about 50%. It's on the higher side and I should try to bring it down to about 40%. However, the HK market has been very weak over the past few weeks and I took the opportunity to add to my positions there.

I'm not sure whether there would be a CNY rally. My gut feel is that there could be one as it's bonus time for the employees and that the China government may have something up their sleeve to lift the markets up before CNY. For Bursa, it has ben steadily increasing for the past few months.

If there's really a CNY rally, I may want to use the opportunity to raise some Cash.

For this week, there were somehow a lot of bearish articles:-

1. Gary Shilling;-
a. Expects S&P 500 returns to slump
b. Warns that a recession could stretch into 2025

2, Nassim Taleb:-
a. The US is in a ‘death spiral’ over government debt

3. Robert Prechter:-
a. Investors are too complacent as evidenced by the low levels in the VIX
b. A 30% correction to stocks wouldn't be surprising

4. The Motley Fool:-
a. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked the 21st consecutive month of declines. The LEI strongly suggests a recession is likely in 2024.
b. The spread (difference in yield) between the 10-year Treasury bond and three-month Treasury bill is hitting its steepest point in roughly four decades. This New York Fed's tool is forecasting a nearly 63% probability of a recession taking place by or before December 2024.
c. M2 money supply is contracting
d. The forward P/E multiple on the S&P 500 is 21.0x. It is well above the "rule of 20" ballpark fair value at 16x. With a 500-basis point premium, it remains a real cause for concern.

Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (50% from 52% last week from 49% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 56% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$72 from US$78 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2057 from US$2018 from US$2032;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
d. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.82 from US$3.85 from US$3.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$100 from US$106 from US$106;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 43165 from 41874 last week from 41073 two weeks ago @ 7.10 AM on Feb 3, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "67 Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 4959 from 4891 last week from 4840 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold Archer Daniel Midland (ADM)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 15533 from 15952 from 15309;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2730 from 2910 from 2832;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 36158 from 35751 from 35963;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1517 from 1506 from 1488:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Traded YNH

Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 03 @ 7.22 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 148 from 147 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8234 from 7.7878 from 7.8217;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.72 from 4.71 from 4.71;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.19 from 7.13 from 7.16;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.83 from 103.31 last week from 103.13 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.02% from 4.14% from 4.13%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.37% from 4.36% from 4.39%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.45 from 95.13 from 94.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.17 from 77.68 from 77.03;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1388 from 1499 from 1357; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:21 am

TOL @ Feb 11, 2024

Complacent.jpg

Complacent Markets?

The US markets are again making new highs while HK gave back most of it's gain from last Tuesday.

The market players are starting to think that this trend will continue and are being a bit "complacent".

As for myself, I'm quite wary that this could be the "calm before the storm". If any of the "Magnificent 7" is hit, it can spread very quickly. And I dont think that HK would be spared either even-though it's quite oversold.

For this week, there were a lot of bearish articles:-

1. Jeff Clark:-
a. Consider cashing out of stocks and taking the rest of the year off

2. Leon Cooperman:-
a. Expects stocks to slide this year
b. Worried about soaring National Debt.
c. Stocks are already pricing in strong earnings and an improving economic outlook

3. Tom Lee:-
a. A correction appears imminent after the S&P 500 rallied 21% over a period of 14 weeks
b. Maintains a bullish view on stocks for 2024 but said history suggests the market is about to reach a short-term peak.

And for those who are interested in gold:-
"Four factors that are likely to support a bullish run for gold in 2024":-
1. Falling interest rates
2. Weakening dollar
3. Rising geopolitical tensions
4. Buying pressure from global central banks

Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (52% from 50% last week from 52% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$77 from US$72 last week from US$78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till Mar 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2039 from US$2057 from US$2018;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.69 from US$3.82 from US$3.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$106 from US$100 from US$106;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. 46633 from 43165 last week from 41874 two weeks ago @ 5.50 PM on Feb 9[, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "78 Extreme Greed" from "67 Greed" from last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5027 from 4959 last week from 4891 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 15746 from 15533 from 15952;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2866 from 2730 from 2910;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 36944 from 36158 from 35751;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Forward PE on Topix: 15
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1512 from 1517 from 1506:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade

Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 09 @ 1.18 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 149 from 148 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.54 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8213 from 7.8234 from 7.7878;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.72 from 4.71;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.20 from 7.19 from 7.13;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.06 from 103.83 last week from 103.31 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.18% from 4.02% from 4.14%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.49% from 4.37% from 4.36%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.45 from 95.13 from 94.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.17 from 77.68 from 77.03;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1473 from 1388 from 1499; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Feb 18, 2024 8:37 am

TOL @ Feb 18, 2024

China Rally.jpeg

HK & China Rally?

The HK market were trending upwards over the past three days. Are the market players buying on anticipating of a strong opening of the China markets on Monday? (China has been closed for a week).

Long time readers would know that I have been quite bullish on the China & HK markets over the past few weeks for following reasons:-
1. The foreigners have probably sold whatever they could
2. The locals wont be selling at this price
3. Short-Selling of China shares are very difficult now
4. It's quite oversold and values are emerging
5. The foreigners are starting to buy again eg. Canadian Pension Plan, Michael Burry etc.

The question now is what would be the catalyst that would push the HK & China markets higher. Would it be one of the following?
1. Short-Covering?
2. Buying by National Team? ( US$2t on stand-by?).
3. FOMO by the army of China retail investors?
4. SOEs buybacks?
5. SOEs increasing their dividends?
6. Supportive Programs for Property Sector?
7. Stimulus Programs for the economy?
8. Tax Incentives for certain sectors?
etc.

Whatever the reason, I think that the HK & China markets are now a steadily increasing "trading market".

That means that I should continue to take any profits on any counter that rises say +7% per day if there are no new news for that counter. Thereafter, I should try buy the counter back when it retraces about 3% over the next two to three days.

The above trading strategy requires a bit of work though. If not, it's probably time to just "buy & hold". However, with my impatient character, trading in and out of stocks, is probably a more suitable strategy for me.

Although, I'm very bullish on the HK& China markets, I need to also remind myself of some of the risks out there including:-
1. Ongoing "Cold War" between the US & China
2. Ongoing discussions of the delisting of US ADRs in 2024
3. Trump becoming President in Nov 2024 (60% sanctions?)
4. Crash of the "Magnificent Seven" affecting global equities
5. Escalation of the Ukraine and Israel war
etc.

BTW, the following are some of the comments this week by the "experts" (mostly bearish):-

1. Paul Dietrich
a. Plowing cash into this type of stock market could be a "mistake"
b. While inflation has cooled from its highs, not all is well in the "wonderland" economy.
c. A mild recession could send S&P 500 tumbling by more than a third

2. Jeffrey Gundlach:-
a. Stocks are as overvalued as they were at the start of the 2022 bear market
b. The new highs resulted from rate cut expectations, which have been excessive
c. He suggested investors turn to credit and cash, making fund available for when stocks cheapen.

3. UBS: These are the three things for the stock market rally to continue:-
a. More good news on the economy would be needed
b. We are looking for signs that Fed cuts are delayed but not by too much
c. We are watching to see if AI monetization trends pick up

4. Tom Lee
a. It's unlikely that the stock market hit its peak following the hotter-than-expected January CPI report
b. There are too many bullish factors that suggest this is another buy-the-dip type of decline.
c. "As the adage goes, we will peak when we 'sell-off on good news' — we are watching for a top but this sell-off seems too consensus"
d. There is a record $6 trillion sitting in money market funds
f. FINRA margin debt levels are well below their peak and typically surge to a new record as the market peaks.

For next week, I'll be watching whether the Dragon will really be entering the HK & China markets. If it does, I may decide to raise some Cash especially towards the end of the week. Nowadays, the rally in HK can last at most 1.5 days only.

Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (47% from 52% last week from 50% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$79 from US$77 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand especially China
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2026 from US$2039 from US$2057;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Prolonged elevated US interest rates will not be good for Commodities
c. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.82 from US$3.69 from US$3.82;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$103 from US$106 from US$100;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$52102 from US$46633 last week from US$43165 two weeks ago @ 2.10 PM on Feb 16, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian, Venezuela Sanction & Hacking
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "77 Extreme Greed" from "78 Extreme Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 5006 from 5027 last week from 4959 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 28; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold Grab

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16339 from 15746 from 15533;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 2866 from 2866 from 2730;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38487 from 36944 from 36158;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1536 from 1512 from 1517:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade

Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 18 @ 2.03 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 150 from 149 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.55 from 3.54 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8218 from 7.8213 from 7.8234;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.72;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.19 from 7.20 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.30 from 104.06 last week from 103.83 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20

Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.28% from 4.18% from 4.02%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.64% from 4.49% from 4.37%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.83 from 94.45 from 95.13;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.14 from 77.17 from 77.68;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1581 from 1473 from 1388; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

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