Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - May 19)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:30 pm

TOL @ Jan 21, 2018

Warning.jpg


Warning Signs

I recalled reading somewhere that when a market is very stretched, it will go out to look for an excuse to correct. If this is true, then the following will be good indicators of whether the US market is stretched or not:-

1. The S&P 500's monthly RSI is above 80 and hasn't been this high since the dot-com bubble.

2. The S&P 500 is more than 10% above the 200-DMA. The market has only been this stretched above the 200-DMA three other times since the bull market began. And each time, it preceded a sharp correction over the next few months.

3. The monthly Asset Allocation Survey shows that investors are now holding 72% of their portfolios in stocks. This is the highest allocation since the dot-com bubble.

The above does not mean that the market is going to plunge tomorrow. However, it does help one to have a good feel of things.

Intuitively, I think that any correction from any known risk, would be quite temporary and should be bought.

However, it's the unknown risks (including earthquake in California or Japan, Nuclear War with North Korea, Cybersecurity etc), that I'm worried about.

Anyway, I've again reduced my exposure to Equities as shown below but I'm still trying to participate in the Euphoria through highly leveraged Bull Calls on the Hang Seng index.


Market Risk Indicators;
1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 6 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 8 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 9 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea (Sep 9, Feb 8); Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela
Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$63.57 from US$64.40 last week from US$61.56 two weeks ago; Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1331 from US$1338 from US$1320. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$17.03 from US$17.25 from US$17.26
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$1017 from US$998 from US$975
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3407 from US$3391 from US$3358
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$3.18 from US$3.23 from US$3.22
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Flat; US$23.65 from US$23.75 from US$23.75
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2810 from 2786 last week from 2743 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Sold Facebook
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 32255 from 31413 from 30815
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: ?
b. Sold Citic Resources 1205
c. Sold Zhaojin 1818
d. Sold Sunny Optical 2328
e. Sold AAC 2018
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3488 from 3429 from 3392
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3550 from 3521
a. Sold Jardine Strategic
b. Sold Jardine Matheson
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23808 from 23654 from 23715
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1829 from 1823 from 1818
a. Added Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30

nd corCurrencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 110.63 from 111.14 last week from 113.05 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9830 from 2.9897 from 3.017
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.8020 from 0.7869 from 0.7865
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.0583 from 1.0444 from 1.0435
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.1569 from 3.1226 from 3.1433
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Weaker. 0.5767 from 0.5772 from 0.5796 from 0.5788

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Stronger. 0.6535 from 0.6490 from 0.6537

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2272 from 1.2125 from 1.2030
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8309 from 4.8126 from 4.8087

10. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8178 from 7.8247 from 7.8188
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.9366 from 3.9692 from 3.9970
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3195 from 1.3273 from 1.3292
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4614 from 6.4872 from 6.5073
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3902 from 1.3630 from 1.3567
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.4728 from 5.4100 from 5.4230
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 90.26 from 91.38 from 91.95
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60



Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.63% from 2.55% last week from 2.48% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.04% from 2.00% from 1.96%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.81 from 36.96 last week from 37.03 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.45 from 87.58 last week from 87.97 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1139 from 1279 last week from 1341 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

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winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:59 pm

TOL @ Jan 28, 2018

Advantage.jpg


Your Advantages Over A Fund-Manager

Over the past week, Ray Dalio mentioned that 'if you're holding cash, you're going to feel pretty stupid'.

Really? If you have have beeen sitting on some MYR Cash, you would have already made about 15% against any USD or HKD assets. This is without taking much Risk and you are getting some interest as well.

This is one of the advantage that you have against a Fund-Manager. You can stay 100% in Cash if you choose to (and in the currency of your choice). You are not constrained by any Investment Mandate.

The other advantage that you have against the Fund Managers, is that you are so much more nimble than them. You can get in and out of positions much quicker than them.

And with the internet and wide availabilily of "Analyst Reports" nowadays, you probably have as much information as the hedge fund managers.

You can actually be a mini Hedge Fund manager, where you can long and short most assets, with the available ETFs nowadays.

Anyway, in this type of euphoric market, it's very hard to stay disciplined. It's very hard to only buy stuff that you understand and at a fair price. It's also very hard to have strict Asset Allocation, Position Sizing as well as Trailing Stops.

Do not be influenced by these Rock-Star Investment Gurus, whether it's a Ray Dalio or a Larry Fink. Think independly and stay disciplined.

Didn't you feel stupid when Bitcoin was touching US$19,200 and the "experts" were trying to plant the idea of US$400,000 bitcoins? And suddenly, Bitcoin crashed by >50% ...


Market Risk Indicators; Reduced Geopolitical Risk and Recession Risk;
1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 6 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 8 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 9 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea (Sep 9, Feb 8); Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela
Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$63.57 from US$64.40 last week from US$61.56 two weeks ago; Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1331 from US$1338 from US$1320. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$17.03 from US$17.25 from US$17.26
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$1017 from US$998 from US$975
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3407 from US$3391 from US$3358
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$3.18 from US$3.23 from US$3.22
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Flat; US$23.65 from US$23.75 from US$23.75
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2873 from 2810 last week from 2786 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 33154 from 32255 from 31413
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Sold China Taiping
c. Sold MGM China
d. Sold Cosco Holdings
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3558 from 3488 from 3429
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. No trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3567 from 3550 from 3521
a. Sold Wheelock
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23632 from 23808 from 23654
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1854 from 1829 from 1823
a. Traded Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 109.31 from 110.63 last week from 111.14 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9611 from 2.9830 from 2.9897
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.8084 from 0.8020 from 0.7869
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0574 from 1.0583 from 1.0444
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.1309 from 3.1569 from 3.1226
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2432 from 1.2272 from 1.2125
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8133 from 4.8309 from 4.8126

8. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8178 from 7.8247 from 7.8188
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.8709 from 3.9366 from 3.9692
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3073 from 1.3195 from 1.3273
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3224 from 6.4614 from 6.4872
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.4238 from 1.3902 from 1.3630
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.5121 from 5.4728 from 5.4100
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 90.26 from 91.38 from 91.95
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.64% from 2.63% last week from 2.55% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.11% from 2.04% from 2.00%

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.89 from 36.81 last week from 36.96 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.69 from 87.45 last week from 87.58 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1217 from 1139 last week from 1279 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118541
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:18 pm

TOL @ Feb 04, 2018

Panic.jpg


If You Want To Panic, Do It Early

The above quote has served me well over the years and it's timely to remind myself of it, in view of the 666 points drop on the Dow on Friday.

I have gone through my portfolio and may sell some counters on Monday, if they do not gap down.

And if they do gap down, then I will have no choice but to sit on them for a while more.

Anyway, I should be able to weather any downdraft, as my liquid portfolio is only 16% Long Equities with a 3% Short Equities hedge.

It's time like this, you are glad to have a significant portion of your liquid portfolio in Cash.

And didn't the Rock Star Gurus like Ray Dalio and Larry Fink, just mentioned a few days ago, that you are going to feel pretty stupid if you are in Cash?

Finally, it may be time to think about betting big on those CBBCs in HK. it's leveraged 30x and if you can get it correct, you will be able to make those once in a generation type of money.


Market Risk Indicators; Reduced Geopolitical Risk and Recession Risk;
1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 6 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 8 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 9 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea (Sep 9, Feb 8); Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela
Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$65.07 from US$63.57 last week from US$64.40 two weeks ago; Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1336 from US$1331 from US$1338. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$16.55 from US$17.03 from US$17.25
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$996 from US$1017 from US$998
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3512 from US$3407 from US$3391
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Flat; US$3.18 from US$3.18 from US$3.23
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Lower; US$22.00 from US$23.65 from US$23.75
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-Off ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Lower. 2762 from 2873 last week from 2810 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Bought TBT (Proshares Ultra Short 20+ Treasuries)
c. Sold Wynn Resorts
d. Sold Scott's Miracle-Gro (SMG)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 32602 from 33154 from 32255
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Sold Cosco Holdings 1919
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3462 from 3558 from 3488
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. No trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3530 from 3567 from 3550
a. Sold Wheelock
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 23275 from 23632 from 23808
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1870 from 1854 from 1829
a. Bought EngTex
b. Bought MyEG
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 110.33 from 109.31 last week from 110.63 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9506 from 2.9611 from 2.9830
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.7942 from 0.8084 from 0.8020
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0463 from 1.0574 from 1.0583
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.0872 from 3.1309 from 3.1569
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2446 from 1.2432 from 1.2272
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8379 from 4.8133 from 4.8309

8. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8210 from 7.8178 from 7.8247
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 3.8871 from 3.8709 from 3.9366
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3173 from 1.3073 from 1.3195
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.2988 from 6.3224 from 6.4614
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.4145 from 1.4238 from 1.3902
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4948 from 5.5121 from 5.4728
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 89.17 from 90.26 from 91.38
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.84% from 2.64% last week from 2.63% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.14% from 2.11% from 2.04%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.27 from 36.89 last week from 36.81 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.22 from 87.69 last week from 87.45 from 87.58 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1095 from 1217 last week from 1139 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore
b. HDGE (Ranger Bear Equity) listed in US
c. SPXS (S&P Inverse 3x) listed in US


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:10 pm

TOL @ Feb 11, 2018

Buy.jpg


Buy Only When The Short-Term Sellers Have Sold And Vice-Versa

I recalled reading the above quote a while back and it has saved me a couple of times, when I was trying to catch some falling knives.

Although, I may have determined that a valuation is fair, "cheap can become much cheaper", as the short-term sellers were continuing to sell.

Anyway, we already have had a 10% correction in two weeks. Is the selling over? Have the short term sellers finished their selling?

Or will we be getting a 25% correction this time. In 2007, the plumge was 54%.

All the "experts" are saying that this correction is "healthy" and that it would be over quite soon because:-
1. Fundamentals have not really changed
2. Global growth, Revenues and EPS, are still intact and growing
3. Interest rates will rise slowly and in a predictable manner
4. QE withdrawal will be done slowly and in a predictable manner
5. US earnings will rise due to tax reforms and infrastructure spending
6. USD rise will be orderly and will not affect the US loans in EM

Intuitively, I think that the selling is a bit overdone and I have started to buy in HK. I still have not bought in the US yet but I have lighten up on some of my US Shorts position.

One coming risk for HK, is the week-long holidays in China. The short-term Mainlander players, may want to liquidate their positions before they go on holidays.

However, we do have the MSCI inflows coming in May and the Banks' dividends in June / July 2018.


Market Risk Indicators; Reduced Geopolitical Risk and Recession Risk;
1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 6 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 8 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 9 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea (Sep 9, Feb 8); Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela
Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$59.06 from US$65.07 last week from US$63.57 two weeks ago; Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1318 from US$1336 from US$1331. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$16.31 from US$16.55 from US$17.03
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$968 from US$996 from US$1017
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3370 from US$3512 from US$3407
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$3.05 from US$3.18 from US$3.18
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Higher; US$22.25 from US$22.00 from US$23.65
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years


8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-Off ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Lower. 2619 from 2762 last week from 2873 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2560; 2400; Resistance: 2900
b. Sold TBT (Proshares Ultra Short 20+ Treasuries)
c. Sold HDGE (Ranger Bear ETF)
d. Sold SPXS (Short 3x S&P500)
e. Traded AAPL (Apple)

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 29507 from 32602 from 33154
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Bought Ping An Holdings 1919
c. Bought Fosun 0656
d. Bought MGM Macau 2282
e. Bought ICBC 1398
f, Bought SJM 0880
g. Bought CR Phoenix Healthcare 1515
h. Traded HKEX 0388
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3130 from 3462 from 3558
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Bought A50 2822 (listed in HK)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3377 from 3530 from 3567
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 21383 from 23275 from 23632
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1820 from 1870 from 1854
a. Bought Gamuda Warrants
b. Sold EngTex
c. Sold MyEG
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-Off (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 108.89 from 110.33 last week from 109.31 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 2.9718 from 2.9506 from 2.9611
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.7816 from 0.7942 from 0.8084
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0387 from 1.0463 from 1.0574
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 3.0873 from 3.0872 from 3.1309
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2245 from 1.2446 from 1.2432
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100Flat. EUR to MYR -

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Flat; 4.8357 from 4.8379 from 4.8133
Flat. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8186 from 7.8210 from 7.8178
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 3.9484 from 3.8871 from 3.8709
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3288 from 1.3173 from 1.3073
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.2988 from 6.3224 from 6.4614
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.3794 from 1.4145 from 1.4238
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4491 from 5.4948 from 5.5121
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 90.46 from 89.17 from 90.26
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.85% from 2.84% last week from 2.64% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.07% from 2.14% from 2.11%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 35.68 from 36.27 last week from 36.89 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 84.95 from 86.22 last week from 87.69 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1106 from 1095 last week from 1217 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:30 am

TOL @ Feb 18, 2018

Sell.jpg


Sell When The Short-Term Buyers Have Finished Their Buying

As mentioned last week, I felt that the selling last week was a bit over-done. I then went shopping and bought quite a few counters in HK.

This week, I sold most of them for a quick profit. I was not comfortable holding them over the 2.5 days of holiday in HK and another 5 days of holiday in China.

As for the US, I was uncomfortable buying any US stocks as I did not want to have an open position while I'm sleeping, during a volatile period.

So where do we go from here, now that the market has rebounded strongly?

Intuitively, I think that the markets would be volatile for a few more weeks. The short-term buyers may now now be selling and there could be another round of profit-taking. In addition, the people who did not managed to sell before the start of the correction, may now be thinking of selling too.

Anyway, I do not know where the markets will be heading although CANSLIM has mentioned that Market Direction is determined by a series of 0.3% to 0.5% moves, for a few days.

I'm protecting myself through:-
1. A healthy Cash level
2. Position Sizing
3. Traiing Stops
4. Diversification across Asset Class, Industry and Currency
5. Being disciplined in my PEG Analysis

I also need to remind myself that "cheap can become cheaper" in this type of market. And "irrational exuberance" can become more irrational too. This volatile period could be due to the machines doing some short-term trading.


Market Risk Indicators; Reduced Geopolitical Risk and Recession Risk;
1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 6 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 8 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 9 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea (Sep 9, Feb 8); Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela
Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$61.64 from US$59.06 last week from US$65.07 two weeks ago; Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year avg dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer); Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO: 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd; US +1m bpd (2019)
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Avg vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1350 from US$1318 from US$1336. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: H 2017: -14%; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.60 from US$16.31 from US$16.55
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$1009 from US$968 from US$996
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3569 from US$3370 from US$3512
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Higher; US$3.24 from US$3.05 from US$3.18
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Lower; US$21.50 from US$22.25 from US$22.00
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2732 from 2619 last week from 2762 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2560; 2400; Resistance: 2900
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 31115 from 29507 from 32602
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Sold Ping An Holdings 1919
c. Sold Fosun 0656
d. Sold MGM Macau 2282
e. Sold ICBC 1398
f. Sold CR Phoenix Healthcare 1515
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3199 from 3130 from 3462
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Sold 1/2 A50 2822 (listed in HK)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3444 from 3377 from 3530
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 21465 from 21383 from 23275
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1838 from 1820 from 1870
a. Sold 1/2 Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-Off (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 106.29 from 108.89 last week from 110.33 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9687 from 2.9718 from 2.9506
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7913 from 0.7816 from 0.7942
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0378 from 1.0387 from 1.0463
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.0809 from 3.0873 from 3.0872
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2411 from 1.2245 from 1.2446
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100Flat. EUR to MYR -

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Weaker; 4.8326 from 4.8357 from 4.8379
Flat. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8186 from 7.8210 from 7.8178
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.8937 from 3.9484 from 3.8871
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3116 from 1.3288 from 1.3173
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3434 from 6.2988 from 6.3224
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.4026 from 1.3794 from 1.4145
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.4615 from 5.4491 from 5.4948
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 89.10 from 90.46 from 89.17
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.87% from 2.85% last week from 2.84% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.19% from 2.07% from 2.14%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.32 from 35.68 last week from 36.27 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.45 from 84.95 last week from 86.22 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1089 from 1106 last week from 1095 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 25, 2018 9:38 am

TOL @ Feb 25, 2018

Selling The Rebound?

The US Markets have rebounded about 50% of their 12% drop. So is it time to sell into the rebound?

Intuitively, the people who did not managed to sell before the 12% drop, could now be thinking of selling.

In addition, the traders who bought after the 12% correction, may also now be thinking of taking some profits.

Anyway, I'm reminding myself to keep the big picture in mind:-
1. Market Direction: Volatile ( probably with Downward Bias )
2. Liquidity: Still high. Interest rates rise and QE BS rebalancing, is orderly
3. EPS: Strong Global Economy. Stimulus from US Tax Reforms & Infrastructure Program.

In view of the above, the "correct" strategy is probably to:-
1. Buy on any sharp dip
2. Not chase the rally and
3. Take profits on any sharp rally


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$63.58 from US$61.64 last week from US$59.06 two weeks ago; Support: US$58; Resistance: US$66
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year avg dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer); Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO: 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2018 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd; US +1m bpd (2019)
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing
r. OPEC: Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Avg vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1331 from US$1350 from US$1318. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: H 2017: -14%; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$16.49 from US$16.60 from US$16.31
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$998 from US$1009 from US$968
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3510 from S$3569 from US$3370
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$3.21 from US$3.24 from US$3.05
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Flat; US$21.75 from US$21.50 from US$22.25
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds (23 reactors for 1 year)
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 mths; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2747 from 2732 last week from 2619 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2560; 2400; Resistance: 2900
b. Bought Walmart (WMT)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 31267 from 31115 from 29507
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Sold SJM
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3289 from 3199 from 3130
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Bought A50 2822 (listed in HK)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3533 from 3444 from 3377
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 21893 from 21465 from 21383
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1862 from 1838 from 1820
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-Off (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 106.77 from 106.29 last week from 108.89 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9613 from 2.9687 from 2.9718
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.7820 from 0.7913 from 0.7816
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0337 from 1.0378 from 1.0387
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.0609 from 3.0809 from 3.0873
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2294 from 1.2411 from 1.2245
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100Flat. EUR to MYR -

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Weaker; 4.8126 from 4.8326 from 4.8357
Flat. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8186 from 7.8210 from 7.8178
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 3.9144 from 3.8937 from 3.9484
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3219 from 1.3116 from 1.3288
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3356 from 6.3434 from 6.2988
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.3980 from 1.4026 from 1.3794
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.4718 from 5.4615 from 5.4491
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 89.88 from 89.10 from 90.46
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.87% from 2.87% last week from 2.85% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.24% from 2.19% from 2.07%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.26 from 36.32 last week from 35.68 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.39 from 86.45 last week from 84.95 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1185 from 1089 last week from 1106 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 04, 2018 8:12 am

TOL @ Mar 04, 2018

New Money From The New Month

The markets have been weak but I'm expecting a small spike due to the new money flowing from the new month.

This is assuming that they have not already spent the money:-
1. Before the month as there was a 3% rise at end Feb
2. At the low on Friday ( there was a 300 points rise from the low)

Anyway, where do we go after that short-term spike?

Intuitively, I think that Market Sentiment is quite weak now and people will be selling into any strong rallies.

Therefore, any stocks that is to be bought from here, would need a greater story at a better valuation.

I'm still not expecting a crash but I would need to be more careful over the next few weeks.

My liquid exposure to Equities is now net 17% (19% Long and 2% Short).


Market Risk Indicators
1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 7 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 7 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea; Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela
Total: 50 out of 70 (71%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$61.47 from US$63.58 last week from US$61.64 two weeks ago; Support: US$58; Resistance: US$66
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year avg dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer); Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO: 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2018 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd; US +1m bpd (2019)
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing
r. OPEC: Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Avg vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1324 from US$1331 from US$1350. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: H 2017: -14%; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.53 from US$16.49 from US$16.60
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$967 from US$998 from US$1009
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3368 from US$3510 from S$3569
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$3.13 from US$3.21 from US$3.24
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Flat; US$21.25 from US$21.75 from US$21.50
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds (23 reactors for 1 year)
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 mths; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years


8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-Off ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2691 from 2747 last week from 2732 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2560; 2400; Resistance: 2900
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 30583 from 31267 from 31115
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Bought Petrochina (0857)
c, Bought CCB (0939)
d. Bought CR Phoenix Healthcare (1515)
e. Bought Fosun (0656)
f. Sold SJM (0880)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3254 from 3289 from 3199
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Sold A50 2822 (listed in HK)
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3479 from 3533 from 3444
a. Sold some XT S&P 500 Inverse
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 21182 from 21893 from 21465
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1856 from 1862 from 1838
a. Sold Masteel
b. Sold 1/2 Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-Off (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 105.62 from 106.77 last week from 106.29 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9606 from 2.9613 from 2.9687
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.7750 from 0.7820 from 0.7913
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0234 from 1.0337 from 1.0378
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.0297 from 3.0609 from 3.0809
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2284 from 1.2294 from 1.2411
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100Flat. EUR to MYR -

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Weaker; 4.8017 from 4.8126 from 4.8326
Flat. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8186 from 7.8210 from 7.8178
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.9092 from 3.9144 from 3.8937
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3203 from 1.3219 from 1.3116
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3467 from 6.3356 from 6.3434
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.3779 from 1.3980 from 1.4026
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.3862 from 5.4718 from 5.4615
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. CHF to MYR:- 4.1691

15. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 90.12 from 89.88 from 89.10
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.86% from 2.87% last week from 2.87% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.24% from 2.24% from 2.19%7%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.00 from 36.26 last week from 36.32 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 85.75 from 86.39 from 86.45

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1196 from 1185 from 1089; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:40 pm

TOL @ Mar 04, 2018

1Q Window Dressing

We will be touching 1Q Window Dressing and the markets should be relatively strong until the beginning of April.

Therefore, if one wants to raise some Cash, it may be a good time to do so.

And if one wants to Momentum trade, it should also be a good time too.

On the horizon, we have the FOMC meeting on March 30 but I think that it's a non-event.

As for the Congressional elections, it would be interesting to see whether Trump is an Asset or Liability for his Republican candidates.


Market Risk Indicators
1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 7 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 7 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 8 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea; Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela
Total: 50 out of 70 (71%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$62.14 from US$61.47 last week from US$63.58 two weeks ago; Support: US$58; Resistance: US$66
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year avg dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer); Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO: 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2018 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd; US +1m bpd (2019)
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing
r. OPEC: Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Avg vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Flat. US$1324 from US$1324 from US$1331. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: H 2017: -14%; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.61 from US$16.53 from US$16.49
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Flat; US$967 from US$967 from US$998
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3294 from US$3368 from US$3510
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Flat; US$3.14 from US$3.13 from US$3.21
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Higher; US$22.25 from US$21.25 from US$21.75
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global Supply: 158m lbs pa; 15% from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds (23 reactors for 1 year)
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 mths; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2787 from 2691 last week from 2747 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2560; 2400; Resistance: 2900
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 30996 from 30583 from 31267
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Sold Petrochina (0857)
c, Sold CCB (0939)
d. Sold CR Phoenix Healthcare (1515)
e. Sold Fosun (0656)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3307 from 3254 from 3289
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210


4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3486 from 3479 from 3533
a. Bought HK Land
b. Sold 1/2 XT S&P 500 Inverse
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 21469 from 21182 from 21893
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1844 from 1856 from 1862
a. Added to Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-Off (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 106.78 from 105.62 last week from 106.77 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger 2.9685 from 2.9606 from 2.9613
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7804 from 0.7750 from 0.7820
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.0283 from 1.0234 from 1.0337
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.0525 from 3.0297 from 3.0609
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2298 from 1.2284 from 1.2294
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100Flat. EUR to MYR -

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8107 from 4.8017 from 4.8126
Flat. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8186 from 7.8210 from 7.8178
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 3.9115 from 3.9092 from 3.9144
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3176 from 1.3203 from 1.3219
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3342 from 6.3467 from 6.3356
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3816 from 1.3779 from 1.3980
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.4045 from 5.3862 from 5.4718
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. CHF to MYR:- CHF Weaker; 4.1147 from 4.1691

15. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 90.21 from 90.12 from 89.88
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 2.89% from 2.86% last week from 2.87% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.24% from 2.24% from 2.19%7%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.09 from 36.00 from 36.26

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.07 from 85.75 from 86.39

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1201 from 1196 from 1185; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

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User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118541
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:06 pm

TOL @ Mar 18, 2018

Which Sectors Should You Be Investing In?

The following are the performance of the various SPDR ETFs since the beginning of 2018:-
1. Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLK): 7.7%
2. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLY): 5.4%
3. Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF): 4%
4. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV): 2.8%
5. Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLI): 0.2%
6. Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLB): -1.6%
7. Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU): -4%
8. Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLP): -4.3%
9. Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLRE): -4.7%
10. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE): -7.7%

It looks like the areas to be in are Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Healthcare.

And the areas to avoid are Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Energy.

Anyway, some "experts" are now watching the charts of Amazon, Apple and Microsoft very closely. It seems that there could be some reversal on their charts.

And if these three Tech Leaders continue to go down, it may not be good for the overall market.

On the horizon, we have the FOMC meeting on March 20-21 of which I think that it's a non-event.

The Chaos in the White House is more worrisome:-
1. Trade War
2. Mueller's Investigation
3. Bad Meeting with North Korea
4. Cancellation of Iran Nuclear Deal
5. Escalation of War with Russia in Ukraine and Syria
However Larry Kudlow ("No recession in Dec 2007") is supposedly going to save the world now.

Anyway, since it's 1Q Window Dressing time, I think that it's still safe to trade the markets until early April 2018, unless the erratic "Stable Genius" wakes up on the wrong side of his bed and decides to play with some red buttons.


Market Risk Indicators
1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 7 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea; Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela; Russia
Total: 50 out of 70 (71%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$62.24 from US$62.14 last week from US$61.47 two weeks ago; Support: US$58; Resistance: US$66
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: 10 to 6 years
h. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO: 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2018 Imports to decrease?
l. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd; US +1m bpd (2019)
m. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
n. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1314 from US$1324 from US$1324. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: H 2017: -14%; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground;
o. US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$16.34 from US$16.61 from US$16.53
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$951 from US$967 from US$967
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3255 from US$3294 from US$3368
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$3.11 from US$3.14 from US$3.13
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Lower; US$21.90 from US$22.25 from US$21.25
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global Supply: 158m lbs pa; 15% from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds (23 reactors for 1 year)
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 mths; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-Off ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Lower. 2752 from 2787 last week from 2691 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2560; 2400; Resistance: 2900
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 31502 from 30996 from 30583
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. No Trade
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3270 from 3307 from 3254
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3512 from 3486 from 3479
a. Bought HK Land
b. Bought Jardine Strategic
c. Bought Wheelock Properties
d. Sold S&P 500 Inverse
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 21676 from 21469 from 21182
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1846 from 1844 from 1856
a. Added to Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-Off (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 105.98 from 106.78 last week from 105.62 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger 2.9666 from 2.9685 from 2.9606
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7713 from 0.7804 from 0.7750
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0165 from 1.0283 from 1.0234
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.0157 from 3.0525 from 3.0297
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2290 from 1.2298 from 1.2284
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100Flat. EUR to MYR -

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Weaker; 4.8047 from 4.8107 from 4.8017
Flat. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8186 from 7.8210 from 7.8178
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.9095 from 3.9115 from 3.9092
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3179 from 1.3176 from 1.3203
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3306 from 6.3342 from 6.3467
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3945 from 1.3816 from 1.3779
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.4518 from 5.4045 from 5.3862
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. CHF to MYR:- CHF Weaker; 4.1063 from 4.1147 from 4.1691

15. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 90.23 from 90.21 from 90.12
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.84% from 2.89% last week from 2.86% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.29% from 2.24% from 2.24%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 35.97 from 36.09 from 36.00

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 85.80 from 86.07 from 85.75

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1150 from 1201 from 1196; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 25, 2018 1:26 pm

TOL @ Mar 25, 2018

The Trend Is Your Friend?

The Dow has lost 1100 points in two days. So will the markets continue to drop or will it start to stabilize?

If you are a trader, momentum is everything. And you would want to be with the crowd until they start to doubt themselves.

If you are a longer term player, then you may want to use any correction, to buy any Strong Catalyst, Growth Stock, at resonable valuation.

So where do we go from here? Intuitively, I think that any dip is a buying opportunity. I think that the Trade War will not be a fully blown one.

In addition, there's plenty of Liquidity out there. The ECB and the BOJ are continuing with their QEs, while the Feds and PBOC can easily ramp up their QE if needed.

At the same time, there's still growth in the US with the Tax Reform starting to bear fruits.

As long as there's no full blown War or Trade War, I think that the sky would not fall.


Market Risk Indicators
1. Euphoria: 7 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 8 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; Trade War; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 7 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 7 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 7 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea; Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela; Russia
Total: 50 out of 70 (71%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$65.81 from US$62.24 last week from US$62.14 two weeks ago; Support: US$58; Resistance: US$66
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels;
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer; largest importer) - Reserve life: 10 to 6 years
h. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO: 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2018 Imports to decrease?
l. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd; US +1m bpd (2019)
m. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +1m bpd 2018
n. Venezeula: -250k to -700k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1347 from US$1314 from US$1324. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, down each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: H 2017: -14%; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground;
o. US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.56 from US$16.34 from US$16.61
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$950 from US$951 from US$967
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3218 from US$3255 from US$3294
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$2.98 from US$3.11 from US$3.14
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
c. China - Lower Power Grid demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Flat; US$21.85 from US$21.90 from US$22.25
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global Supply: 158m lbs pa; 15% from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds (23 reactors for 1 year)
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 mths; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-Off ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Lower. 2588 from 2752 last week from 2787 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2560; 2400; Resistance: 2900
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 30309 from 31502 from 30996
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 38,000; 43,000
b. Bought Fosun (0656)
c. Bought ICBC (1398)
d. Bought AAC (2018)
e. Bought Ping An (2318)
f. Bought Sunny Optical (2382)
g. Traded Tencent (0700)
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3153 from 3270 from 3307
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600
b. Bought A50 (2822) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3421 from 3512 from 3486
a. Sold HK Land
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20618 from 21676 from 21469
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1865 from 1846 from 1844
a. Added to Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-Off (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 104.73 from 105.98 last week from 106.78 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
e. Nikkei down 14% this correction
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger 2.9779 from 2.9666 from 2.9685
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7697 from 0.7713 from 0.7804
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0125 from 1.0165 from 1.0283
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 3.0152 from 3.0157 from 3.0525
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2356 from 1.2290 from 1.2298
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100Flat. EUR to MYR -

7. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8403 from 4.8047 from 4.8107
Flat. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8186 from 7.8210 from 7.8178
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

9. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 3.9175 from 3.9095 from 3.9115
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

10. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.3155 from 1.3179 from 1.3176
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

11. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3033 from 6.3306 from 6.3342
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

12. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.4134 from 1.3945 from 1.3816
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

13. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.5368 from 5.4518 from 5.4045
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

14. CHF to MYR:- CHF Stronger; 4.1356 from 4.1063 from 4.1147

15. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 89.44 from 90.21 from 90.12
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.81% from 2.84% last week from 2.89% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 2.25% from 2.29% from 2.24%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 35.62 from 35.97 from 36.09

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 84.92 from 85.80 from 86.07

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1117 from 1150 from 1201; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118541
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

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