Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - May 19)

Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - May 19)

Postby winston » Sun Oct 04, 2015 9:25 am

TOL as of Oct 4, 2015

October.jpg


Happy October !

It's a new month, so new money would be flowing into the market again. Therefore, there should be one strong spike during the first week of October. However, we already have had a strong spike on Friday, Oct 2nd. So was that the spike that we were expecting ?

We would also be touching US Earnings season again. Normally, the US markets would rise during earnings season as the reported results would usually beat expectations. However, for this earnings season, I think that the US Markets may be a bit weak due to the poor sentiments.

Anyway, I have reviewed my Asset Allocation yesterday and the following are my comments:-
1. Equities: Weak; Grinding lower; Poor sentiment; High short interest; Buy only on capitulation. Sell on any euphoria.
2. Bonds: Dangerous; Ultra low interest rates; Corporate defaults; China and Russia selling US treasuries
3. Properties: Grinding Lower. Low Yield. Less foreign buying at major cities
4. Commodities: Decimated; Prices now are probably equivalent to the cost of production; Speculators have disappeared
5. Cash: Depends on your currency; If you were in MYR Cash, you would have lost 30% in the past year
6. Shorting ( including Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants ): Depends on your timing. It would have not been pretty if you were shorting HK on Friday, October 2, when it spiked up 660 points

In view of the above, there's really no "risk-free" asset now. Hence, I should actively manage my portfolio.

However, it's also timely to remind myself of a quote by Jim Rogers: "Just wait for the money to be in the corner and thereafter, all you have to do, is go there to pick it up".

That means that I should:-
1. Wait more patiently for any convincing story to materialize first, before taking a position
2. Trade less
3. Have bigger positions

Finally, as short interests is very high, there could be some unexpected rallies. When those rallies do occur, they should be regarded as Selling Opportunities instead of Momentum Plays. Intuitively, I think that there's only a small window left to protect yourself before the "mother of all storms" arrives.

When that storm does arrive, you will not have a chance to get out. Equities could fall by 50% while your currency could drop by another 50%. Suddenly, in USD, you have lost 75% of your assets! Not possible ? Think again to 1987, 1997 and 2007 ...

Now that I'm so bearish, am I being too negative since the investors left in this market, have also gone through the same 1987, 1997 and 2007 before ? (These same investors would also have taken steps to protect themselves eg. Inverse ETFs, Put Warrants and Short-Selling in addition to raising Cash).


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$46 from US$45 from US$45
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1138 from US$1146 from US$1139. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$912 from US$947 from US$982

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.24 from US$15.10 from US$15.15. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.34 from US$2.28 from US$2.38

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1951 from 1931 from 1958. Sold SDS ( S&P Ultra Short 2x ETF )

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21506 from 21186 from 21920. Sold Cinda, CGN, Avi China, Great Wall Motors, CCC, BBMG, Wasion, Shimao, CRRC, Legend and Conch Ventures

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3053 from 3092 from 3098; No trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2793 from 2833 from 2880 from 2888. Sold S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17725 from 17881 from 18070 from 18264. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1629 from 1615 from 1669. No Trade.

7. Warrants - Traded 69540 and 69106 in HK


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 120 from 121 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 3.08 from 3.08 from 3.02

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.71 from 0.70 from 0.72

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.01 from 1.00 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Am thinking of swapping my SGD for AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.11 from 3.09 from 3.04. Am thinking of converting my AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.12 from 1.12 from 1.13. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.75 from 7.7532 from 7.7501. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 95.92 from 96.26 from 95.15


Others

1. Sentiment - Anxiety to Denial ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global diversification
b. Asset Class diversification
c. Diversity of industry & company exposure
d. Currency hedging
e. Tactical asset allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.99% from 2.16% from 2.13%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. Reserve Bank of India reduced repo rate by 50 bps to 6.75%
c. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Oct 11, 2015 9:52 am

TOL as of Oct 11, 2015

Sell stocks.jpeg


Selling Opportunity ?

The markets have rallied over the past 1.5 weeks and I think that it's probably a "selling opportunity". Fundamentals have not really improved and neither have Sentiments.

However, one can also argue that perhaps the Selling was overdone in the first place, so there's now some "Reversion To the Mean". The world has not ended, China is still humming along, interest rates are still low, there's plenty of cash on the sidelines, Commodities are stabilizing etc.

From the above, you can see that things are not so clear cut, so trading in this type of environment would be quite difficult. Therefore, I have decided to raised some Cash and wait for things to unfold first, before deciding on the next course of action.

The following are my current thoughts on the various subjects:-

1. US Markets: Weak Earnings Season especially Revenues; Unattractive Valuation; If it crashes, it would be a "V"; Expecting it to grind lower; Waiting for a chance to short the US markets again

2. China Markets: May need a few more months to stabilize. Economy deteriorating; Adequate fire-power for the time being to stabilize things. Not expecting the Chinese market to go anywhere. Will build a position in the A50 ETF over the next few months

3. HK Markets: Attractive Valuation but we dont live in an isolated world. Trading Market.

4. Singapore Markets: No good ideas for a while. holding on to some Dividend stocks.

5. Malaysian Markets: No good ideas for a while except for MAA

6. Commodities: Finding support unless the global economy deteriorates further. Cant see any uptrend yet.

7. Currencies: If not the USD, then what ? The world is not ending so why's everyone taking cover in the USD? Or maybe it's ending but I cant see it ?

Anyway, I have used this "window of opportunity", to try to manage my risks better:-
1. I have sold into the rally and have reduced my exposure to Equities, to about 40% ( of which 25% are stable, dividend stocks )
2. I have taken profits on my Inverse and Short ETFs on the US market. To short the US market again once the S&P reaches 2100
3. I have increased my exposure to the USD, HKD and Gold, to about 20%. I should try to increase it further to about 35%.
4. The rest of my currency exposure are in the SGD, MYR and AUD. To reduce my exposure to the SGD. To increase my exposure to the AUD.

Finally, I need to remind myself to now focus on preserving capital:-
1. 'Return Of Investments" is more important now than "Return On Investments"
2. Avoid the "marginal" stories and stick to only the "convincing" stories
3. Trade the "bluest of the blue" only, in case a bad recession is just around the corner


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$49 from US$46 from US$45
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1156 from US$1138 from US$1146. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$983 from US$912 from US$947

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.82 from US$15.24 from US$15.10. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.42 from US$2.34 from US$2.28

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2015 from 1951 from 1931. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22459 from 21506 from 21186. Sold Huabao, Nirvana, ICBC and Legend. Traded CK Properties and Wasion

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3183 from 3053 from 3092; No trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2999 from 2793 from 2833. Sold JMH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 18439 from 17725 from 17881. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1707 from 1629 from 1615. Sold 1/2 Berjaya Corp

7. Warrants - Traded 63977, 60323, 64239, 25414 and 60793 in HK


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.96 from 3.08 from 3.08

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.73 from 0.71 from 0.70

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.02 from 1.01 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Am thinking of swapping my SGD for AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.03 from 3.11 from 3.09. Am thinking of converting my AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.14 from 1.12 from 1.12. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7501 from 7.75 from 7.7532. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.81 from 95.92 from 96.26


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global diversification
b. Asset Class diversification
c. Diversity of industry & company exposure
d. Currency hedging
e. Tactical asset allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.09% from 1.99% from 2.16%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:48 am

TOL as of Oct 18, 2015

short-selling-ilustrasi-thetocgr-.jpg


Time to Short?

The markets have been strong over the past 2.5 weeks and I think that it maybe slightly over-bought. However, dear can become dearer. So shorting it aggressively at this point in time, can be quite an expensive affair.

Anyway, my hands are a bit itchy so I have initiated various short positions. However, for this round, I have reduced my position size and leverage, just in case that I'm very wrong.

By the way, Credit Suisse had a recent good article on the various issues that we are following:-

1. Global growth decelerating


2. China facing risk of a hard landing
China accounts for 15% of global GDP, a third of GDP growth and 30% of global capex
a) Weakness in the real estate sector;
b) The degree of ‘zombie capital’;
c) Chinese policymakers losing their credibility;
d) Growth weakness extending beyond investment & manufacturing related variables;
e) Chinese wage growth not sustainable
f) The Renminbi will eventually fall significantly
g) The lack of unwinding of foreign debt.

3. Credit blowing out
a) US households are still over leveraged
b) High yield credit spreads widening

4. Risk of the Fed hiking too early

5. Policymakers running out of weapons – QE proven ineffective

6. Global FX reserves falling

7. Equities valuations are expensive

8. Earnings revisions have fallen sharply

9. Political landscape becoming less corporate-friendly
(Corporate tax used to be a third of total tax in 1960, now it is only a fifth, so there could be more pressure on governments to increase corporate contribution).

10. Under-Investment as a result of buybacks and resulting in lower productivity growth

11. Risk of lower oil prices

12. Recent rotations have hurt a number of investors


In view of the above, shouldn't the markets be heading downwards ? Fundamentals, Sentiments, Technicals, Valuations and Liquidity, are not that great.

However, the markets have been heading upwards for the past 2.5 weeks so we would need to respect it's strength. Hence, it may not be the time to short the market yet...


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$47 from US$49 from US$46
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1177 from US$1156 from US$1138. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$1016 from US$983 from US$912

4. Silver - Higher. US$16.03 from US$15.82 from US$15.24. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.40 from US$2.42 from US$2.34

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2033 from 2015 from 1951.

Risen 8% over 2.5 weeks. Starting to see companies being punished if they dont meet expectations eg. Yum Brands, Wal Mart, Wynn Resorts etc. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger. Initiated a short position on the S&P 500 ( DBXT S&P Short ETF traded in Singapore ).

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23067 from 22459 from 21506. Sold Great Wall Motor

Risen 11% over 2.5 weeks. I think the rise is a bit too much and too fast. I have tried to short it twice this week. However, I have to cover my positions both times as the market is just too strong this week. Will try shorting it again late next week. Touching upper end of Bollinger.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3391 from 3183 from 3053; Sold A50 2822 ETF in HK. Stabilizing. Will probably buy the A50 ETF again on any dips.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3035 from 2999 from 2793. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 18292 from 18439 from 17725. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1717 from 1707 from 1629. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 61184, and 60291 in HK


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.02 from 2.96 from 3.08

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.73 from 0.73 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.01 from 1.02 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.04 from 3.03 from 3.11. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.13 from 1.14 from 1.12. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7501 from 7.75 from 7.7532. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.54 from 94.81 from 95.92


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.03% from 2.09% from 1.99%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:04 am

TOL as of Oct 25, 2015

banksters1.png


Banksters

( Definition: A blend word derived from combining "banker" and "gangster." A member of the banking industry seen as profiteering or dishonest )

The World Bank & IMF had their meeting in Peru on Oct 9-11 recently. And what have we seen so far ?
1. We have Draghi shouting again in Europe
2. We have China lowering lending rates by 25bps and RRR by 50 bps and promising more

And this is only within 1.5 weeks after their meeting !

Going forward, it would not surprised me, to see similar announcements from the BoJ, Yellen, RBA, BoE etc.

Cant you see the coordination by the Banksters, to try to flood the world with liquidity ?

And have they and their friends, been front-running these announcements ?

Anyway, the more important question is whether they know something that you dont ?

1. Europe:- Why is Draghi shouting again ? Is it because that he knows that the Economic Slowdown in Europe is worse than expected? And that Deflation (especially Real Estate ), Demographics and the Refugee problem, will plunge Europe into the Abyss where they would never be able to climb out from ?

2. China:- Why do they need to cut rates for the 6th time in less than a year ? Do you believe that their GDP growth is really 6.9%, especially when electricity consumption were down 3% yoy, railway freights were down 15% yoy and imports were down 18% yoy ? And how would the US$850b outflow and the US$350b sale of US Treasuries recently, add to their "better-than-expected" growth picture ?

3. Japan:- What has Abe's "Three Arrows" really produced ? Other than devaluing their currency, what have they achieved ? And how has that devaluation contributed to growth in their economy ?

4. US:- If the US Economy is doing so well, why did Wal Mart crashed 10% the other day ? Weren't the US drivers supposed to be spending the savings from their gasoline cost, at Walmart ? Why is there no wage growth over the past few years? Why has Consumer Sentiment dropped ? Where's the Labor Force participation ? Why has Consumer Spending dropped ? Why are there still 46.7m people on Food Stamps?

From the above, things dont look that great around the world.

BTW, the Banksters have not been too ethical either. Is it really correct to use use tax payer's money to bail out Wall Street? Shouldn't Wall Street be allowed to go under as in the first place, they get to keep all trading profits?

Anyway, "Helicopter Ben" still has the nerve to say that he had the "courage to act". What a #$@%^& joke !

Is it also ethical for the Banksters to rob the Savers and Retirees of their Interest Income, by driving down interest rates to near zero ?

So where do we go from here ?

Firstly, you dont want to be fighting the Banksters. Shorting the markets now would be quite suicidal. However, there are also a lot of people (friends of the Banksters? ) waiting to take their profits, as they have been front-running the announcements by the Banksters.

Secondly, I think that the right time to short the market would be towards the later part of the US Earnings season. However, the market could still spike up during the first week of November, from the new money arriving in the new month of November. Thereafter, the markets could also be strong during the Santa Rally and Year End Window Dressing.

Finally, I believed that the Banksters do not have much bullets left. Once they have finished firing their bullets this round, things would not be that pretty thereafter. This is because:-
1. Total Global Debt is now US$200t,
2. Global growth is deteriorating,
3. Commodities have collapsed,
4. The high USD is affecting the USD loans taken by the Emerging Markets
etc.

And we have not even mentioned the possibly of war in Ukraine, Syria or The Spratly's, any catastropic natural disaster ( eg. earthquake in California or Tokyo), some contagious deadly disease etc.

Now that I have gotten you to be looking at the half-empty portion of the glass, are you now ready to call the bankster's bluff and to get ready to short the market ?

"The emperor is not wearing any clothes" despite what the banksters are doing. Accept it and wait for the set-up to make a lot of money.. The next meltdown could be in the order of the one that we saw in 1987, 1997 and 2007.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$45 from US$47 from US$49
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1164 from US$1177 from US$1156. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$1002 from US$1016 from US$983

4. Silver - Lower. US$15.81 from US$16.03 from US$15.82. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.35 from US$2.40 from US$2.42

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2075 from 2033 from 2015. Bought VXX

Risen 10% over 3.5 weeks. Starting to see companies being punished if they dont meet expectations eg. Yum Brands, Wal Mart, IBM, Wynn Resorts etc. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger. Added to short position on the S&P 500 ( DBXT S&P Short ETF traded in Singapore ). Initiated a position on VXX as I expect Volatility to increase.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23152 from 23067 from 22459. Bought China Mobile

Risen 13% over 3.5 weeks. I think the rise is a bit too much and too fast. I have shorted it 8 times this week but with mixed results. Will try shorting it again late next week. Touching upper end of Bollinger.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3412 from 3391 from 3183; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3068 from 3035 from 2999. Bought DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 18825 from 18292 from 18439. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1711 from 1717 from 1707. Bought MAA

7. Warrants - Traded 60123, 60292, 60433 and 60046 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 121 from 119 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.04 from 3.02 from 2.96

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.72 from 0.73 from 0.73

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.01 from 1.01 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.07 from 3.04 from 3.03. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.10 from 1.13 from 1.14. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7501 from 7.7501 from 7.75. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR[b/]:- 4.25; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. [b]Dollar Index
- USD Stronger. 97.13 from 94.54 from 94.81


Others

1. Sentiment - Confident to Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.09% from 2.03% from 2.09%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. The PBOC said that it was lowering the one-year benchmark bank lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent, effective from Oct. 24. It also cut RRR by 50 bps.
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 01, 2015 9:07 pm

TOL as of Nov 1, 2015

November.jpg


Happy November!

It's a new month again, so new money would be flowing into the markets again. That means that there could be one strong spike next week, especially in the US markets. Thereafter, I'm not too sure that the market can continue it's strong momentum upwards.

I still think that the markets have gone up a bit "too much, too fast" and is due for a breather. Perhaps after the correction, it can resume it's grind upwards during the Santa Rally, Window Dressing as well as the January Effect.

I believed that this is still a Selling Opportunity and it does not hurt to raise some cash during this period. My net exposure to Equities (as a portion of my Liquid Assets) is now about 32% ( 34% long, 2% short ) so I should be able to sleep soundly.

However, I'm still quite worried about my Currency exposure. I still have about 85% of my assets in the MYR, SGD and AUD. If the Emerging Market (EM) Currencies crashes, I would be quite exposed. I still need to look for a way to increase my exposure to the HKD, USD and GLD.

I still do not think that it's time to short the markets aggressively, although I have initiated some short positions to have a feel of the markets. I would probably increase my short exposure after the expected spike next week.

I think that the Fed may increase interest rates in December, so US Equities may go up but it may not be good for EM Equities and Currencies. Hence, I should use this month of November to try to reduce my exposure to EM Equities and Currencies.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$46 from US$45 from US$47
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018 to 2023
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1142 from US$1164 from US$1177. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$987 from US$1002 from US$1016

4. Silver - Lower. US$15.54 from US$15.81 from US$16.03. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.32 from US$2.35 from US$2.40

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 2079 from 2033 from 2015. No Trade

I still think that the rise in the US markets is a bit too high and too fast. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger. Added to my short position on the S&P 500 ( DBXT S&P Short ETF traded in Singapore ).

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22640 from 23152 from 23067. Applied China Huarong & CICC IPOs; Sold China Mobile

I also still think that the rise in HK is a bit too much and too fast. I have shorted it a couple of times this week with mixed results. Will probably short it again late next week.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3383 from 3412 from 3391; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2998 from 3068 from 3035. Bought DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19083 from 18825 from 18292. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1666 from 1711 from 1717. Sold Berjaya Corp. Bought MAA; MAA is now my largest position in my portfolio. By the way, someone was also buying Menang aggressively on Friday.

7. Warrants - Traded 60292, 65519, 64679 and 60046 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 121 from 121 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 3.04 from 3.04 from 3.02

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.71 from 0.72 from 0.73

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.99 from 1.01 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.04 from 3.07 from 3.04. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.10 from 1.10 from 1.13. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7506 from 7.7501 from 7.7501. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR[b/]:- MYR Weaker. 4.26 from 4.25; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. [b]GBP to USD[b/]:- 1.54

10. [b]Dollar Index
- USD Stronger. 96.91 from 97.13 from 94.54


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.14% from 2.09% from 2.03%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:22 am

TOL as of Nov 8, 2015

strange+feeling.gif


That Strange Feeling

Have you ever had that strange feeling that something is not right but you cant really explain it ?

And to make matter worse, everything around you, seems hunky dory. For example:-

1. The stock markets seems to be grinding higher.

2. There seems to be a lot of liquidity around, as the US Feds are taking their time to increase interest rates while there are various QE programs in Europe, Japan and China.

3. The global economy is still growing

4. Soft commodity prices, especially Oil, has helped the earnings of the companies


So if things are that okay, why are my spidey sense tingling so much ? Why am I so worried that this is the calm before the storm ? Perhaps it's the following:-

1. The Stock Markets have not had a meaningful correction for a number of years. The participants are all complacent as they think that low interest rates and the various QE programs around the world, would contnue to provide Liquidity for the markets eventhough Earnings are deteriorating.

So what would happen if we suddenly get another flash crash (like the one at the end of September) ? And till date, we still do not really know the reason for that flash crash. Why would it not happen again ?

2. Can low interest rates really push up the markets over an extended period ? Japan has had low interest rates for 30 years and what have they got to show for it ? And would you really switched your FDs and Short Term Bonds for Equities in a low interest rate environment ? After 6 years, I think there's only so much that low interest rates can do.

3. If things were that great, why is the global economy slowing down and why are Commodity prices so low ?


Anyway, I need to remind myself to manage my risks further:-

1. Although I have reduced my exposure to Equities to about 35%, I should try to bring it down further to about 20%

2. My exposure to EM currencies (MYR, SGD & AUD) is still at 85% and this will hurt me if EM currencies crashes. Luckily, I have a loan in an EM Currency and if it does crash, I would pay off that loan from my HKD or USD.

3. My exposure to Inverse ETF is currently at 2% only, When the market crashes, I need to quickly buy some Inverse ETFs or Leveraged Put Warrants

4. My exposure to Precious Metals is currently at 6% and I should try to increase that to around 15%

It's time to play defence. It's time to worry about "Return OF Capital" instead of "Return ON Capital".


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$45 from US$46 from US$45
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018 to 2023
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1089 from US$1142 from US$1164. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$943 from US$987 from US$1002

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.74 from US$15.54 from US$15.81. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.24 from US$2.32 from US$2.35

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On


1. US Equities - Higher. 2099 from 2079 from 2033. Sold Chevron

Twenty percent of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for by a near $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no breadth in this rally.

I still think that the rise in the US markets is a bit too high and too fast. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger. Added to my short position on the S&P 500 ( DBXT S&P Short ETF traded in Singapore ).


2. HK Equities - Higher. 22867 from 22640 from 23152. Applied for CICC IPO; Bought China Mobile; Traded Cheung Kong Properties, BBMG, China Sevenstar & SJM; Sold China Huarong

I still think that the rise in HK is a bit too much and too fast. I have shorted it a couple of times this week. Will probably short again next week.


3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3590 from 3383 from 3412; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3013 from 2998 from 3068. Added to DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19266 from 19083 from 18825. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1686 from 1666 from 1711. Added to MAA

7. Warrants - Traded 66682 and 60292 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 123 from 121 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.07 from 3.04 from 3.04

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.70 from 0.71 from 0.72

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.00 from 0.99 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.07 from 3.04 from 3.07. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.07 from 1.10 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7508 from 7.7506 from 7.7501. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.36 from 4.26 from 4.25; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.51 from 1.54

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 99.17 from 96.91 from 97.13


Others

1. Sentiment - Confident to Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.33% from 2.14% from 2.09%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more
c. Interest rates on the 10 Year US Treasuries have jumped 10% wow


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 15, 2015 9:45 am

TOL as of Nov 11, 2015

Selling.jpg


Time to Sell ?

The US Earnings season is winding down. And if US earnings is no longer a catalyst for the markets to go higher, why would the US markets continue it's rise ?

Anyway, the "banksters" have been trying to talk up the market again. Draghi "Whatever It Takes" was hinting that he would be easing on December 3. However, that's still about 3 weeks away.

If the Dow is dropping 200 points a day, 3 weeks would be eternity. And why would some QE in Europe affect your stocks ? And with the bombs in Paris yesterday, do you think that the European economies can do well ?

Some "experts" are also saying that the 25 bps interest rate hike on Dec 15-16, will be the next catalyst for the market. However, that's also a month away. And why would higher interest rates be good for stocks ?

Other "experts" are saying that we will be hitting the traditionally strong period of the year. There would be Window Dressing, the Santa Rally and thereafter, the January Effect. Again, that's still about 4 weeks away too.

So why would you be holding stocks when there's no catalyst on the horizon, while there's plenty of headwinds around?

As for myself, I have been trying to sell some stocks but without much success. I've been procrastinating and hoping for better prices. I need to remind myself that when the storm does arrive, I will not know what has hit me.

Since I've not been able to able to sell some of my stocks, perhaps I should increase my exposure to Inverse Etfs. It would be much easier than selling some of my existing positions. Till date, I have already bought some VXX and the DBXT S&P Short Etf.

In addition, I'm still quite worried about my currency exposure. I still cant see how the MYR, SGD and AUD can recover. At the same time, the USD, CHF and GBP have gone up quite a bit and I dont feel like buying them at this level. However, "high and become higher" and "cheap can become cheaper".

I need to find a way to mitigate my Currency Risk by December 10. If not, I will probably have to buy some VXX, SDS, EUM or EDZ. They are denominated in USD and would also go up in price when everything tumbles.

By the way, the G20 will be meeting today. Perhaps you can again see some coordinated announcement by the Central Banksters after the meeting.

And if the lemmings are going to be buying on those announcements, then I would take it as a Selling Opportunity again.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$41 from US$45 from US$46
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
g. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1083 from US$1089 from US$1142. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$861 from US$943 from US$987

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.23 from US$14.74 from US$15.54. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.24 from US$2.32 from US$2.35

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2023 from 2099 from 2079. No Trade

Twenty percent of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for by a near $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no breadth in this rally.

I still think that the rise in the US markets is a bit too high and too fast. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger. Will add to my short position on the S&P 500 ( DBXT S&P Short ETF traded in Singapore ).

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22396 from 22867 from 22640. Bought Shimao; Traded China Mobile; Sold CICC and 1/2 CK Properties

I think that the rise in HK is a bit too much and too fast. I have shorted it a couple of times this week and will probably short again next week. In addition, the MSCI has added some ADR into their indices. Would these ADRS take away some of the money that would otherwise have been invested in HK ?

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3581 from 3590 from 3383; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2929 from 3013 from 2998. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19597 from 19266 from 19083. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1659 from 1686 from 1666. No Trade

7. Warrants - Traded 61949, 68015, 67236 and 62725 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 123 from 123 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.09 from 3.07 from 3.04

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.71 from 0.70 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.02 from 1.00 from 0.99. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.13 from 3.07 from 3.04. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.07 from 1.10 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7507 from 7.7508 from 7.7506. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.40 from 4.36 from 4.26; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.52 from 1.51 from 1.54

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 98.99 from 99.17 from 96.91


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.27% from 2.33% from 2.14%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Am monitoring this as a warning sign. If it crashes, Equities would not be too far behind. 35.42


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:58 am

TOL as of Nov 22, 2015

trading break.jpg


Trading Break ?

It's has been a while since I took a Trading Break. And since I'm quite uncomfortable with what's happening in the markets, I have deliberately slowed down my trading this week.

I think that we are now in a "danger zone" and the "risk vs reward" does not justify having a big position in either direction.

In addition, the Central Banksters are up to their old tricks again. China has announced a SLF, while Draghi "Whatever It Takes" is blowing hot air again. The Japanese, British and Australian Central Banksters, are also probably not too far behind with their coordinated announcements.

In the meantime, the global economy is deteriorating, the USD is continuing it's climb ( thus affecting US Earnings, Commodity Prices and Emerging Markets Currencies), while there is more threat of Terrorist Attacks, including in the US.

Under such a scenario, I cannot see a strong market despite the recent the recent Short-Coverings and Buy-Backs.

It may not be the right time to aggresively short the markets but it's certainly the right time to not have a high exposure to Equities.

I have been addiing to my Shorts position while trying to sell whatever Equities that I currently have.

I'm still worried about my Currency Risk but that has been ongoing for quite a while already. I will probably convert some of my SGD into the AUD over the next two months.

I have a feeling that I may have to hunker down for quite a while until there's a sharp drop before I can see some values emerging. However, I need to also remind myself of Soro's Theory of Reflexity, where cheap can become very much cheaper and value is always changing with new conditions.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$40 from US$41 from US$45
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
g. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1077 from US$1083 from US$1089. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$856 from US$861 from US$943

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.14 from US$14.23 from US$14.74. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.04 from US$2.24 from US$2.32

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2089 from 2023 from 2099. No Trade

Twenty percent of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for by a near $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

I still think that the rise in the US markets is a bit too high and too fast. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger. Added to my short position on the S&P 500 (DBXT S&P Short ETF traded in Singapore).

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22755 from 22396 from 22867. Sold Shimao; Traded BBMG and China Mobile

I also think that the rise in HK is a bit too much and too fast. In addition, the MSCI has added some ADR into their indices. Would these ADRS take away some of the money that would otherwise have been invested in HK ?

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3631 from 3581 from 3590; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2918 from 2929 from 3013. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19880 from 19597 from 19266. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1662 from 1659 from 1686. Added to MAA.

7. Warrants - Traded 67952 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 123 from 123 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 3.03 from 3.09 from 3.07

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.72 from 0.71 from 0.70

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.02 from 1.02 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.09 from 3.13 from 3.07. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7503 from 7.7507 from 7.7508. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.28 from 4.40 from 4.36; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Flat. 1.52 from 1.52 from 1.51

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 99.57 from 98.99 from 99.17


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.26% from 2.27% from 2.33%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - 35.27 from 35.42. Am monitoring this as a warning sign. If it crashes, Equities would not be too far behind



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:21 am

TOL as of Nov 29, 2015

December.jpg


A New Month

It will be a new month soon and new money would again be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, there should be a spike upwards in the first week of December.

In addition, the ECB would probably be announcing some massive QE programs on December 3. And Yellen would also be speaking next week.

Therefore, it's not likely that the markets would be weak over the next few weeks. And to add fuel to the fire, we would also be touching Window Dressing time too.

However, any student of the markets, would already have known of the above events. So, if you have been planning to sell some Equities, the next few weeks may not be a bad time.

As for myself, I'm still looking for the right time to execute the following:-
1. Reduce my exposure to Equities from the current 34% to about 25%
2. Reduce my exposure to the MYR, SGD and AUD
3. Convert some SGD to AUD
4. Increase my short positions eg. DBXT S&P Short, VXX and EDZ


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$42 from US$40 from US$41
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
g. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1056 from US$1077 from US$1083. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$835 from US$856 from US$861

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.02 from US$14.14 from US$14.23. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Flat. US$2.05 from US$2.04 from US$2.24

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 2089 from 2023 from 2099. No Trade

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for by a near $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

I still think that the rise in the US markets is a bit too high and too fast. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22068 from 22755 from 22396. Bought Huabao and BBMG. Traded China Merchant Bank, Cheung Kong Properties, Guotai and China Communication Construction.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3436 from 3631 from 3581; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2859 from 2918 from 2929. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Flat. 19884 from 19880 from 19597. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1683 from 1662 from 1659. No Trade.

7. Warrants - Traded 63818 and 68035 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 123 from 123 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 3.02 from 3.03 from 3.09

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.72 from 0.72 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.02 from 1.02 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.07 from 3.09 from 3.13. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.07. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7515 from 7.7503 from 7.7507. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.27 from 4.28 from 4.40; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.50 from 1.52 from 1.52

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 100.02 from 99.57 from 98.99


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.22% from 2.26% from 2.27%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 35.37 from 35.27 from 35.42


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:21 am

TOL as of Nov 29, 2015

December.jpg


A New Month

It will be a new month soon and new money would again be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, there should be a spike upwards in the first week of December.

In addition, the ECB would probably be announcing some massive QE programs on December 3. And Yellen would also be speaking next week.

Therefore, it's not likely that the markets would be weak over the next few weeks. And to add fuel to the fire, we would also be touching Window Dressing time too.

However, any student of the markets, would already have known of the above events. So, if you have been planning to sell some Equities, the next few weeks may not be a bad time.

As for myself, I'm still looking for the right time to execute the following:-
1. Reduce my exposure to Equities from the current 34% to about 25%
2. Reduce my exposure to the MYR, SGD and AUD
3. Convert some SGD to AUD
4. Increase my short positions eg. DBXT S&P Short, VXX and EDZ


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$42 from US$40 from US$41
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96m bpd vs 95m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 3b barrels
c. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
d. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 695m barrels out of max 727m barrels; To sell 8% to raise cash from 2018-23
e. US Private Industry Reserves: 480m barrels
f. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
g. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It has 40m barrels in storage; Decision by IAEA on Dec 15. Used to produce 4.2m bpd
h. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1056 from US$1077 from US$1083. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$835 from US$856 from US$861

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.02 from US$14.14 from US$14.23. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Flat. US$2.05 from US$2.04 from US$2.24

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 2089 from 2023 from 2099. No Trade

20% of the gain in the S&P 500 in October was accounted for by a near $300 billion rise in the value of just four stocks – Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq:FB). There's no real breadth in this rally.

I still think that the rise in the US markets is a bit too high and too fast. PEG is at the high end. Touching the upper end of Bollinger.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22068 from 22755 from 22396. Bought Huabao and BBMG. Traded China Merchant Bank, Cheung Kong Properties, Guotai and China Communication Construction.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3436 from 3631 from 3581; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2859 from 2918 from 2929. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Flat. 19884 from 19880 from 19597. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1683 from 1662 from 1659. No Trade.

7. Warrants - Traded 63818 and 68035 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 123 from 123 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 3.02 from 3.03 from 3.09

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.72 from 0.72 from 0.71

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.02 from 1.02 from 1.02. The 52 week range is 0.98 to 1.36. Am thinking of converting some of my SGD for the AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.07 from 3.09 from 3.13. Will not convert my AUD to MYR for the time being

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.07. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7515 from 7.7503 from 7.7507. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.27 from 4.28 from 4.40; 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.47

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.50 from 1.52 from 1.52

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 100.02 from 99.57 from 98.99


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); China Bad Debts (US$0.6t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$1.4t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.22% from 2.26% from 2.27%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Stronger. 35.37 from 35.27 from 35.42


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

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