TOL as of Dec 28, 2014
Happy New Year !
It's that time of the year that we reflect on things again.
So what have you done this year ?
Was it a profitable year ? If not, why not, as the US markets are touching record levels ? If you cant make money when the markets are hot, how would you be able to make money when it's weak ?
And what are the lessons that you have learned this year ? As for myself, I need to constantly remind myself to follow the rules, especially the following:-
1. "Sell when the buyers disappear or when the sellers emerge". I tend to hang around longer than necessary and when it gaps down, I'm caught.
2. "Never catch a falling knife". I dont have the patience to wait for the price to first hit the ground. However, I'm starting to get better at this. I still have not bought any Macau Casino, Oil company nor the Russian ETF yet. Cheap can become cheaper.
3. "Buy on fundamentals, not price". I tend to base my buying on price instead of fundamentals. I need to remind myself that I must first get the fundamentals correct, then the price will take care of itself.
Coming back to the markets, I'm still selling into any rallies and am raising cash whenever I can. Unless the stock has a very convincing story, I would probably skip it for the time being.
As for the coming weeks, there could be some tailwinds from the following:-
1. Window Dressing
2. New money from the new month of January
3. January Effect
4. QE in China
At the same time, the US markets are overbought and people are getting complacent again. Isnt that an accident waiting to happen ?
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$55 from US$57 from US$57
2. Gold - Lower. US$1174 from US$1195 from US$1222. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.85 from US$2.90 from US$2.93
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2089 from 2071 from 2002
2. HK Equities - Higher. 23349 from 23117 from 23249 from 24003. Bought China Communications Construction. Traded CGN Power
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3158 from 3109 from 2938. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3354 from 3280 from 3324. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17819 from 17621 from 17372
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1764 from 1716 from 1733. Bought MAA & Menang; Sold TMC Life and 1/3 Datasonic
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.64 from 2.65 from 2.66. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.81 from 0.81 from 0.83
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.08 from 1.07 from 1.08. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.84 from 2.84 from 2.88. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.22 from 1.22 from 1.25
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7599 from 7.7531 from 7.7513. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 90.03 from 89.60 from 88.36
Others
1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates; US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Bad Debts; Strong USD; Deflation; Commodities Plunge;
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Year end Window Dressing; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - European, Japanese & Chinese;
4. Risk Management - Asset Allocation; Sector Exposure; Position Sizing; Trailing Stop Loss; Cash Levels
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.25% from 2.16% from 2.08%
7. Nett Exposure to Equities - 31% (Long 35%; Short 4%)
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
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Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Dec 28, 2014 9:23 am
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:55 am
TOL as of Jan 04, 2014
Checking on Yourself
While reflecting on my performance for 2014, one of my weaknesses is not spending more time to check on my Facts, Assumptions and Judgement.
In 2014, some of my analysis were flawed. I was using wrong assumptions and I also underestimated the amount of time that it will take to turnaround a situation. In others, I was too optimistic and held on to positions for too long.
Going forward, whenever I find myself having answers to justify any situation, I need to remind myself that perhaps I dont even know what the right question is.
BTW, I have noticed a great deal of complacency nowadays. People seemed to be getting senile and have lost their memories of 1987, 1997 and 2007. They don't think that the markets can crash anymore because interest rates are so low and the regulators will always be "market friendly".
Whenever I see this type of behavior, it reminds me of the 1987 crash. The "experts" at that time, did not knew what hit them that day, when the Dow dropped 25% in one day. The "experts" did not know that they don't know.
On the more positive side, I'm quite pleased with myself for avoiding a few pitfalls this year, namely Casinos, Commodities including Oil and Gold, Junk Bonds and Russian Stocks. My judgement was correct, that I need to based my investments on Fundamentals not Price.
Having said that, there will be a time to based my investment on Price. However, that should only be pursued after a long period of decline, where bad news no longer have any effect on the stock price. After a long decline, the time to probably buy is when there's a Catalyst that would turnaround the fundamentals of that situation. So I still need to get the Fundamentals correct first, then the Price can take care of itself.
In the meantime, I'll be watching the Casinos, Commodity stocks and Russian stocks. Their fundamentals are dismal and there's no catalyst yet to turn around their situation.
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$53 from US$55 from US$57
2. Gold - Higher. US$1190 from US$1174 from US$1195. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.81 from US$2.85 from US$2.90
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Mixed
1. US Equities - Lower. 2058 from 2089 from 2071
2. HK Equities - Higher. 23858 from 23349 from 23117. Sold China Communications Construction, AVIC China and 40% WH Group. Traded CGN Power, China Cinda and Nirvana Asia
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3235 from 3158 from 3109. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3371 from 3354 from 3280. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17451 from 17819 from 17621
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1753 from 1764 from 1716. Sold Puncak Niaga. Received Dividends from Berjaya Corp
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Inverse ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.65 from 2.64 from 2.65. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.81 from 0.81 from 0.83
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.07. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.86 from 2.84 from 2.84. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.20 from 1.22 from 1.22
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7566 from 7.7599 from 7.7531. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 91.16 from 90.03 from 89.60
Others
1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Bad Debts; Strong USD; Deflation; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%)
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - European, Japanese & Chinese;
4. Risk Management - Do you know that you don't know ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.11% from 2.25% from 2.16%
7. Nett Exposure to Equities - 27% (Long 31%; Short 4%)
8. Cash - Cash is King. Cash is to deployed into assets with good fundamentals at a fair price. Cash should never be deployed into assets with poor fundamentals although they are trading at a perceived cheap price. This is because:
a. Cheap can become cheaper.
b. Cheap does not mean that the price will rise tomorrow.
c. Cheap can mean dead money for a long time.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Checking on Yourself
While reflecting on my performance for 2014, one of my weaknesses is not spending more time to check on my Facts, Assumptions and Judgement.
In 2014, some of my analysis were flawed. I was using wrong assumptions and I also underestimated the amount of time that it will take to turnaround a situation. In others, I was too optimistic and held on to positions for too long.
Going forward, whenever I find myself having answers to justify any situation, I need to remind myself that perhaps I dont even know what the right question is.
BTW, I have noticed a great deal of complacency nowadays. People seemed to be getting senile and have lost their memories of 1987, 1997 and 2007. They don't think that the markets can crash anymore because interest rates are so low and the regulators will always be "market friendly".
Whenever I see this type of behavior, it reminds me of the 1987 crash. The "experts" at that time, did not knew what hit them that day, when the Dow dropped 25% in one day. The "experts" did not know that they don't know.
On the more positive side, I'm quite pleased with myself for avoiding a few pitfalls this year, namely Casinos, Commodities including Oil and Gold, Junk Bonds and Russian Stocks. My judgement was correct, that I need to based my investments on Fundamentals not Price.
Having said that, there will be a time to based my investment on Price. However, that should only be pursued after a long period of decline, where bad news no longer have any effect on the stock price. After a long decline, the time to probably buy is when there's a Catalyst that would turnaround the fundamentals of that situation. So I still need to get the Fundamentals correct first, then the Price can take care of itself.
In the meantime, I'll be watching the Casinos, Commodity stocks and Russian stocks. Their fundamentals are dismal and there's no catalyst yet to turn around their situation.
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$53 from US$55 from US$57
2. Gold - Higher. US$1190 from US$1174 from US$1195. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.81 from US$2.85 from US$2.90
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Mixed
1. US Equities - Lower. 2058 from 2089 from 2071
2. HK Equities - Higher. 23858 from 23349 from 23117. Sold China Communications Construction, AVIC China and 40% WH Group. Traded CGN Power, China Cinda and Nirvana Asia
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3235 from 3158 from 3109. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3371 from 3354 from 3280. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17451 from 17819 from 17621
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1753 from 1764 from 1716. Sold Puncak Niaga. Received Dividends from Berjaya Corp
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Inverse ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.65 from 2.64 from 2.65. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.81 from 0.81 from 0.83
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.07. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.86 from 2.84 from 2.84. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.20 from 1.22 from 1.22
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7566 from 7.7599 from 7.7531. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 91.16 from 90.03 from 89.60
Others
1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Bad Debts; Strong USD; Deflation; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%)
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - European, Japanese & Chinese;
4. Risk Management - Do you know that you don't know ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.11% from 2.25% from 2.16%
7. Nett Exposure to Equities - 27% (Long 31%; Short 4%)
8. Cash - Cash is King. Cash is to deployed into assets with good fundamentals at a fair price. Cash should never be deployed into assets with poor fundamentals although they are trading at a perceived cheap price. This is because:
a. Cheap can become cheaper.
b. Cheap does not mean that the price will rise tomorrow.
c. Cheap can mean dead money for a long time.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Jan 11, 2015 7:54 am
TOL as of Jan 11, 2014
Volatility
Isn't it exciting to be trading the US markets ?
Down 300 points one day and then up 300 points the next 2 days ?
It's as if the players do not know what to do and are just following one another. Or is it the machines that are following one another ?
Do you really want to stay invested in this type of markets ?
The "optimists" have a lot of reasons on why you should continue to stay invested eg. low interest rates, liquidity etc.
The "doomers" also have a lot of reasons why you should not be invested eg. rising interest rates, lower earnings from high USD etc.
In this type of scenario, I prefer to take the middle path and trade the markets ie. sell into any strong rallies and buy on any deep correction.
At the same time, I'm mindful that the US markets are quite extended using the Schiller's Cyclically-Adjusted PE. In addition, we have not had a 10%-15% correction in awhile. At the next "flash crash", do you really think that you would be able to get out in time ?
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$48 from US$53 from US$55
2. Gold - Higher. US$1223 from US$1190 from US$1174. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Higher. US$17 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.76 from US$2.81 from US$2.85
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-Off
1. US Equities - Lower. 2045 from 2058 from 2089
2. HK Equities - Higher. 23920 from 23858 from 23349. Bought Nirvana and China Cinda. Traded CGN Power
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3285 from 3235 from 3158. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3338 from 3371 from 3354. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17198 from 17451 from 17819
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1732 from 1753 from 1764. Bought MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.67 from 2.65 from 2.64. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.82 from 0.81 from 0.81
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.08. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.92 from 2.86 from 2.84. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.18 from 1.20 from 1.22
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7531 from 7.7566 from 7.7599. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 91.92 from 91.16 from 90.03
Others
1. Sentiment - Confused ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Deflation; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%)
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - If you have all the answers, you dont even know the question to ask in the first place
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.94% from 2.11% from 2.25%
7. Nett Exposure to Equities - Higher. 28% (Long 33%; Short 5%) from 27% last week
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Volatility
Isn't it exciting to be trading the US markets ?
Down 300 points one day and then up 300 points the next 2 days ?
It's as if the players do not know what to do and are just following one another. Or is it the machines that are following one another ?
Do you really want to stay invested in this type of markets ?
The "optimists" have a lot of reasons on why you should continue to stay invested eg. low interest rates, liquidity etc.
The "doomers" also have a lot of reasons why you should not be invested eg. rising interest rates, lower earnings from high USD etc.
In this type of scenario, I prefer to take the middle path and trade the markets ie. sell into any strong rallies and buy on any deep correction.
At the same time, I'm mindful that the US markets are quite extended using the Schiller's Cyclically-Adjusted PE. In addition, we have not had a 10%-15% correction in awhile. At the next "flash crash", do you really think that you would be able to get out in time ?
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$48 from US$53 from US$55
2. Gold - Higher. US$1223 from US$1190 from US$1174. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Higher. US$17 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.76 from US$2.81 from US$2.85
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-Off
1. US Equities - Lower. 2045 from 2058 from 2089
2. HK Equities - Higher. 23920 from 23858 from 23349. Bought Nirvana and China Cinda. Traded CGN Power
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3285 from 3235 from 3158. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3338 from 3371 from 3354. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17198 from 17451 from 17819
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1732 from 1753 from 1764. Bought MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.67 from 2.65 from 2.64. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.82 from 0.81 from 0.81
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.08. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.92 from 2.86 from 2.84. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.18 from 1.20 from 1.22
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7531 from 7.7566 from 7.7599. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 91.92 from 91.16 from 90.03
Others
1. Sentiment - Confused ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Deflation; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%)
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - If you have all the answers, you dont even know the question to ask in the first place
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.94% from 2.11% from 2.25%
7. Nett Exposure to Equities - Higher. 28% (Long 33%; Short 5%) from 27% last week
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Jan 18, 2015 6:54 am
TOL as of Jan 18, 2014
The Coming Crash of 2017 ?
The last few crashes were in years ending with a "7" eg. 1987, 1997 and 2007. So will the next big one be in 2017? And what might trigger it ?
Some "experts" are saying that the crisis has already started, in the fracking industry in the US. The frackers are now supposedly defaulting on some of their US$500b of junk bonds.
Other "experts" are saying that it would be Russia that will get the ball rolling. Russia supposedly has about US$670b of foreign debts.
Or how about some other Emerging Market countries defaulting on their USD loans ? That amount is now US$5.7t.
As for myself, I think that it will probably start with a flash crash in the US$700t derivatives market. Just witness how the Euro crashed against the CHF about three days ago.
For next week, I'll still be selling into any rallies. And if I do buy anything, I'll need to remind myself to spend more time analysing the risks of the company. Better to be a Kiasi than a Kiasu, in this type of volatile environment.
And for those who are not Hokkien, a "Kiasi" is someone who's afraid of dying. He's always thinking about Risk Management and protecting what he has. Return OF Capital is of utmost importance to a Kiasi.
As for a Kiasu, it means "afraid of losing to people". He's always thinking of his "return ON capital" not "return OF capital". He's very afraid that inflation will be eating away at his nest egg (as if we now have high inflation). He's always running to the next fire sale. However, he has forgotten that he could also be burnt at that fire sale, as cheap can become cheaper.
There will be times to be a Kiasu and there would be times that one should be a Kiasi. After a bull run of seven years, I think that it's better to be a Kiasi than a Kiasu. In addition, Many Kiasus have now forgotten that market can actually crash and statistically, there's a 10% dip every 2 years in the US markets and every 4 years, there's a correction of > 25%. And we have not had a correction in a long time.
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Flat. US$48 from US$48 from US$53 from US$55
2. Gold - Higher. US$1280 from US$1223 from US$1190. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Higher. US$18 from US$17 from US$16. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.63 from US$2.76 from US$2.81
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-Off
1. US Equities - Lower. 2019 from 2045 from 2058
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24103 from 23920 from 23858. Support 23300. Bought BBMG, Avi China and China Cinda.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3377 from 3285 from 3235. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3301 from 3338 from 3371. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16864 from 17198 from 17451
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1744 from 1732 from 1753. Bought MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded HSI Bear Puts 67782. Sold some S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Risk-Off
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 118 from 119 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.68 from 2.67 from 2.65. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.82 from 0.82 from 0.81. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.08. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.93 from 2.92 from 2.86. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.16 from 1.18 from 1.20. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7513 from 7.7531 from 7.7566. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 92.52 from 91.92 from 91.16
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans ( US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe (Jan 22), Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - When the CHF gapped up against the Euro, did the currency traders have enough time to run ? And if the professionals are not able to run in time, why are you so confident that you would be able to run in time ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.84% from 1.94% from 2.11%.
7. Interest Rates:-
a. India cut interest rates by 0.25 bps
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 35% (Long 38%; Short 3%) from 28% from 27%. My exposure to equities has crept out and I should monitor my exposure to equities more diligently.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
The Coming Crash of 2017 ?
The last few crashes were in years ending with a "7" eg. 1987, 1997 and 2007. So will the next big one be in 2017? And what might trigger it ?
Some "experts" are saying that the crisis has already started, in the fracking industry in the US. The frackers are now supposedly defaulting on some of their US$500b of junk bonds.
Other "experts" are saying that it would be Russia that will get the ball rolling. Russia supposedly has about US$670b of foreign debts.
Or how about some other Emerging Market countries defaulting on their USD loans ? That amount is now US$5.7t.
As for myself, I think that it will probably start with a flash crash in the US$700t derivatives market. Just witness how the Euro crashed against the CHF about three days ago.
For next week, I'll still be selling into any rallies. And if I do buy anything, I'll need to remind myself to spend more time analysing the risks of the company. Better to be a Kiasi than a Kiasu, in this type of volatile environment.
And for those who are not Hokkien, a "Kiasi" is someone who's afraid of dying. He's always thinking about Risk Management and protecting what he has. Return OF Capital is of utmost importance to a Kiasi.
As for a Kiasu, it means "afraid of losing to people". He's always thinking of his "return ON capital" not "return OF capital". He's very afraid that inflation will be eating away at his nest egg (as if we now have high inflation). He's always running to the next fire sale. However, he has forgotten that he could also be burnt at that fire sale, as cheap can become cheaper.
There will be times to be a Kiasu and there would be times that one should be a Kiasi. After a bull run of seven years, I think that it's better to be a Kiasi than a Kiasu. In addition, Many Kiasus have now forgotten that market can actually crash and statistically, there's a 10% dip every 2 years in the US markets and every 4 years, there's a correction of > 25%. And we have not had a correction in a long time.
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Flat. US$48 from US$48 from US$53 from US$55
2. Gold - Higher. US$1280 from US$1223 from US$1190. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Higher. US$18 from US$17 from US$16. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.63 from US$2.76 from US$2.81
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-Off
1. US Equities - Lower. 2019 from 2045 from 2058
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24103 from 23920 from 23858. Support 23300. Bought BBMG, Avi China and China Cinda.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3377 from 3285 from 3235. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3301 from 3338 from 3371. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16864 from 17198 from 17451
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1744 from 1732 from 1753. Bought MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded HSI Bear Puts 67782. Sold some S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Risk-Off
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 118 from 119 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.68 from 2.67 from 2.65. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.82 from 0.82 from 0.81. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.08. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.93 from 2.92 from 2.86. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.16 from 1.18 from 1.20. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7513 from 7.7531 from 7.7566. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 92.52 from 91.92 from 91.16
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans ( US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe (Jan 22), Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - When the CHF gapped up against the Euro, did the currency traders have enough time to run ? And if the professionals are not able to run in time, why are you so confident that you would be able to run in time ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.84% from 1.94% from 2.11%.
7. Interest Rates:-
a. India cut interest rates by 0.25 bps
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 35% (Long 38%; Short 3%) from 28% from 27%. My exposure to equities has crept out and I should monitor my exposure to equities more diligently.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:05 am
TOL as of Jan 25, 2014
Buy, Sell or Hold ?
Draghi will now be showering $1.2t into the Eurozone.
And the 'experts" are saying that with the low interest rates in the US and the various forms of QE in Europe, Japan & China, how can the stock markets really fall ?
Anyway, the lemmings are continuing to do the following:-
1. Buy USD
2. Short EUR
3. Buy US Stocks
4. Buy Chinese Stocks
As for myself, whenever I see the lemmings running in one direction, I do feel very uncomfortable. Therefore, I will continue to sell into any rally and am now down to 29% nett exposure to Equities (Long 33%; Short 4%).
I need to also watch my exposure to the Ringgit. It has been weak due to lower oil prices. In addition, 45% of the MGS are owned by foreigners. If they do decide to exit those MGS, interest rates will surely have to rise in Malaysia. Thereafter, it will certainly hit Malaysian shares and Malaysian Properties.
In addition, I still have not found a replacement for the USD. Maybe it could be Gold if everyone does not have any more confidence in fiat money. Gold is still cheap, hated and could be on an uptrend now.
I'm still avoiding Macau Casinos and Oil companies as their fundamentals have not changed. Cheap can become cheaper and I'm not smart enough to be able to time the dead cat bounce. By avoiding the Macau Casinos and Oil companies, I have saved myself a lot of money till date.
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$45 from US$48 from US$48
2. Gold - Higher. US$1294 from US$1280 from US$1223. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$18 from US$18 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.50 from US$2.63 from US$2.76
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2052 from 2019 from 2045
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24850 from 24103 from 23920. Support 23300. Sold 1/2 Zhaojin, BBMG and Avi China.
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3352 from 3377 from 3285. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3412 from 3301 from 3338. Sold Fraser Centrepoint
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17512 from 16864 from 17198
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1803 from 1744 from 1732. Sold some MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Risk-Off
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 118 from 118 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.68 from 2.68 from 2.67. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower. 0.79 from 0.82 from 0.82. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Lower. 1.06 from 1.09 from 1.09. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Lower. 2.85 from 2.93 from 2.92. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.12 from 1.16 from 1.18. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7525 from 7.7513 from 7.7531. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 94.99 from 92.52 from 91.92
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$177b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t ); Greece
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management -
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.80% from 1.84% from 1.94%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Denmark cut interest rates to -0.2%
b. Brazil raised rates to 12.25% from 11.75%
c. Canada cut interest rates by 0.25%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 29% (Long 33%; Short 4%) from 35% from 28%.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Buy, Sell or Hold ?
Draghi will now be showering $1.2t into the Eurozone.
And the 'experts" are saying that with the low interest rates in the US and the various forms of QE in Europe, Japan & China, how can the stock markets really fall ?
Anyway, the lemmings are continuing to do the following:-
1. Buy USD
2. Short EUR
3. Buy US Stocks
4. Buy Chinese Stocks
As for myself, whenever I see the lemmings running in one direction, I do feel very uncomfortable. Therefore, I will continue to sell into any rally and am now down to 29% nett exposure to Equities (Long 33%; Short 4%).
I need to also watch my exposure to the Ringgit. It has been weak due to lower oil prices. In addition, 45% of the MGS are owned by foreigners. If they do decide to exit those MGS, interest rates will surely have to rise in Malaysia. Thereafter, it will certainly hit Malaysian shares and Malaysian Properties.
In addition, I still have not found a replacement for the USD. Maybe it could be Gold if everyone does not have any more confidence in fiat money. Gold is still cheap, hated and could be on an uptrend now.
I'm still avoiding Macau Casinos and Oil companies as their fundamentals have not changed. Cheap can become cheaper and I'm not smart enough to be able to time the dead cat bounce. By avoiding the Macau Casinos and Oil companies, I have saved myself a lot of money till date.
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$45 from US$48 from US$48
2. Gold - Higher. US$1294 from US$1280 from US$1223. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$18 from US$18 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Lower. US$2.50 from US$2.63 from US$2.76
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2052 from 2019 from 2045
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24850 from 24103 from 23920. Support 23300. Sold 1/2 Zhaojin, BBMG and Avi China.
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3352 from 3377 from 3285. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3412 from 3301 from 3338. Sold Fraser Centrepoint
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17512 from 16864 from 17198
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1803 from 1744 from 1732. Sold some MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Risk-Off
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 118 from 118 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.68 from 2.68 from 2.67. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower. 0.79 from 0.82 from 0.82. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Lower. 1.06 from 1.09 from 1.09. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Lower. 2.85 from 2.93 from 2.92. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.12 from 1.16 from 1.18. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7525 from 7.7513 from 7.7531. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 94.99 from 92.52 from 91.92
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$177b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t ); Greece
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management -
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.80% from 1.84% from 1.94%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Denmark cut interest rates to -0.2%
b. Brazil raised rates to 12.25% from 11.75%
c. Canada cut interest rates by 0.25%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 29% (Long 33%; Short 4%) from 35% from 28%.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:35 am
TOL as of Feb 01, 2015
New Month
It's a new month again and there are new money flowing into the market again. Therefore, the US markets should bounce up during the first week of February.
Thereafter, the buy-backs would probably appear after the US earnings season.
In view of the above, I'm reminding myself to be a bit careful with my S&P Short ETF.
Anyway, I still think that this is a Trading Market. Therefore, I will continue to sell into any rallies while I may buy after any strong correction.
I do not think that the market will crash anytime soon as interest rates are still very low. However, it does not hurt to have more cash on hand, especially when the market has been going up for so many years without any meaningful correction along the way.
Commodities:- - Mixed
1. Oil - Higher. US$48 from US$45 from US$48
2. Gold - Lower. US$1284 from US$1294 from US$1280. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Lower. US$17 from US$18 from US$18. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Flat. US$2.50 from US$2.50 from US$2.63
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-Off
1. US Equities - Lower. 1995 from 2052 from 2019
2. HK Equities - Lower. 24507 from 24850 from 24103. Support 23300. Bought Wasion, Avi China and Zhaojin
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3210 from 3352 from 3377. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3391 from 3412 from 3301. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17674 from 17512 from 16864
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1781 from 1803 from 1744. Sold some MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade
Currencies- Risk-Off
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 118 from 118 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.68 from 2.68 from 2.67. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower. 0.78 from 0.79 from 0.82. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Lower. 1.05 from 1.06 from 1.09. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Lower. 2.82 from 2.85 from 2.93. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.13 from 1.12 from 1.16. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7519 from 7.7525 from 7.7513. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 94.80 from 94.99 from 92.52
9. I still have not found a good alternative to the USD as we go through this "currency depreciation war". Some "experts" are recommending Gold, Commodities or Agricultural Land instead.
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - Were the professionals able to anticipate 1987, Nikkei Crash, 1997, Dot-Com Bust, 9-11 and the 2007 Tsunami ? If the professionals were not able to anticipate those black swan events, why are u so confident that you are able to avoid the next black swan event ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.64% from 1.80% from 1.84%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Russian Central bank reduced its one-week minimum auction repo rate by two points to 15 percent
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 30% (Long 35%; Short 5%) from 29% from 35%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
New Month
It's a new month again and there are new money flowing into the market again. Therefore, the US markets should bounce up during the first week of February.
Thereafter, the buy-backs would probably appear after the US earnings season.
In view of the above, I'm reminding myself to be a bit careful with my S&P Short ETF.
Anyway, I still think that this is a Trading Market. Therefore, I will continue to sell into any rallies while I may buy after any strong correction.
I do not think that the market will crash anytime soon as interest rates are still very low. However, it does not hurt to have more cash on hand, especially when the market has been going up for so many years without any meaningful correction along the way.
Commodities:- - Mixed
1. Oil - Higher. US$48 from US$45 from US$48
2. Gold - Lower. US$1284 from US$1294 from US$1280. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Lower. US$17 from US$18 from US$18. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Flat. US$2.50 from US$2.50 from US$2.63
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-Off
1. US Equities - Lower. 1995 from 2052 from 2019
2. HK Equities - Lower. 24507 from 24850 from 24103. Support 23300. Bought Wasion, Avi China and Zhaojin
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3210 from 3352 from 3377. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3391 from 3412 from 3301. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17674 from 17512 from 16864
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1781 from 1803 from 1744. Sold some MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade
Currencies- Risk-Off
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 118 from 118 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.68 from 2.68 from 2.67. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower. 0.78 from 0.79 from 0.82. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Lower. 1.05 from 1.06 from 1.09. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Lower. 2.82 from 2.85 from 2.93. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.13 from 1.12 from 1.16. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7519 from 7.7525 from 7.7513. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 94.80 from 94.99 from 92.52
9. I still have not found a good alternative to the USD as we go through this "currency depreciation war". Some "experts" are recommending Gold, Commodities or Agricultural Land instead.
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - Were the professionals able to anticipate 1987, Nikkei Crash, 1997, Dot-Com Bust, 9-11 and the 2007 Tsunami ? If the professionals were not able to anticipate those black swan events, why are u so confident that you are able to avoid the next black swan event ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.64% from 1.80% from 1.84%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Russian Central bank reduced its one-week minimum auction repo rate by two points to 15 percent
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 30% (Long 35%; Short 5%) from 29% from 35%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:33 am
TOL as of Feb 08, 2015
Time to Sell ?
The US market has recovered and is now touching it's Resistance. Will it be able to blow pass it's Resistance or would it be going down from here ?
IMHO, I think that the new money from the new month of February, has already been deployed . Therefore, the US market should be going down from here. And it will probably go down till it reaches a level that is attractive for buy-backs.
As mentioned, I do not think that there would be a crash yet. This is because interest rates are still very low and there's plenty of cash on the sidelines to buy if there's a severe correction.
Since I still believed that it's a Trading Market, I will continue to sell into any rallies and will buy on any corrections.
Finally, I'm still monitoring the Macau Casinos, Oil Stocks, Chinese A Shares and Russian ETFS. I still think that their fundamentals will not change in 6 months time. Therefore, I'm willing to miss any of their "dead cat bounce" for the time being.
Commodities:- - Risk-On
1. Oil - Higher. US$52 from US$48 from US$45
2. Gold - Lower. US$1233 from US$1284 from US$1294. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$18. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Higher. US$2.59 from US$2.50 from US$2.50
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2055 from 1995 from 2052
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24679 from 24507 from 24850. Support 23300. Buy Wasion, Avi China and China Communication Construction. Sold Nirvana Asia and 1/2 Zhaojin
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3076 from 3210 from 3352. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3431 from 3391 from 3412. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17649 from 17674 from 17512
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1813 from 1781 from 1803. Bought Pelikan. Sold MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 119 from 118 from 118. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.62 from 2.68 from 2.68. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.79. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.06. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Lower. 2.77 from 2.82 from 2.85. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.13 from 1.13 from 1.12. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7530 from 7.7519 from 7.7525. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 94.65 from 94.80 from 94.99
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - How much would you be losing, if your portfolio is hit with a 15% loss ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.96% from 1.64% from 1.80%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Australia cut interest rates by 25 bps
b. Denmark cut interest rates to -0.75% from -0.5%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 31% (Long 36%; Short 5%) from 30% from 29%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Time to Sell ?
The US market has recovered and is now touching it's Resistance. Will it be able to blow pass it's Resistance or would it be going down from here ?
IMHO, I think that the new money from the new month of February, has already been deployed . Therefore, the US market should be going down from here. And it will probably go down till it reaches a level that is attractive for buy-backs.
As mentioned, I do not think that there would be a crash yet. This is because interest rates are still very low and there's plenty of cash on the sidelines to buy if there's a severe correction.
Since I still believed that it's a Trading Market, I will continue to sell into any rallies and will buy on any corrections.
Finally, I'm still monitoring the Macau Casinos, Oil Stocks, Chinese A Shares and Russian ETFS. I still think that their fundamentals will not change in 6 months time. Therefore, I'm willing to miss any of their "dead cat bounce" for the time being.
Commodities:- - Risk-On
1. Oil - Higher. US$52 from US$48 from US$45
2. Gold - Lower. US$1233 from US$1284 from US$1294. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$18. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Higher. US$2.59 from US$2.50 from US$2.50
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2055 from 1995 from 2052
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24679 from 24507 from 24850. Support 23300. Buy Wasion, Avi China and China Communication Construction. Sold Nirvana Asia and 1/2 Zhaojin
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3076 from 3210 from 3352. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3431 from 3391 from 3412. No Trade
5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17649 from 17674 from 17512
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1813 from 1781 from 1803. Bought Pelikan. Sold MAA
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 119 from 118 from 118. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.62 from 2.68 from 2.68. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.79. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.06. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Lower. 2.77 from 2.82 from 2.85. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.13 from 1.13 from 1.12. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7530 from 7.7519 from 7.7525. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 94.65 from 94.80 from 94.99
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China;
4. Risk Management - How much would you be losing, if your portfolio is hit with a 15% loss ?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.96% from 1.64% from 1.80%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Australia cut interest rates by 25 bps
b. Denmark cut interest rates to -0.75% from -0.5%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 31% (Long 36%; Short 5%) from 30% from 29%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
[b]Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:54 am
TOL as of Feb 15, 2015
Going Thru the Resistance ?
The S&P 500 has now gone thru the resistance of 2091. Would it be able to continue it's grind higher or would it be turning around soon ?
As I think that this is still a Trading Market, I'm betting that it would be turning downwards soon. Therefore, I will also continue to sell into any rallies. At the same time, I may also buy on any dips as interest rates is very low.
Anyway, I'm still monitoring various investment ideas:-
1. Macau: Revenue is still trending down but the shares of Galaxy and Sands may have turned around
2. Oil: There's still a glut but the price of oil seems to be turning around, perhaps due to short covering
3. Russia: The Russian ETFs are up, probably due to the rise of oil, the ceasefire and short-covering.
So is it time to buy Macau, Oil and Russia ? As for myself, I will continue to monitor them and will probably start buying when I see the "W" of 'Triple Bottom" forming on the charts.
In the meantime, I need to also remind myself that cheap can become cheaper but I also do not want to miss the boat if it starts moving.
I have waited patiently for the above three events to stabilize, so it may be time now to stagger in some buying.
However, the new high on the US markets is making me very uncomfortable as I feel that it's an accident waiting to happen.
Commodities:- - Mixed
1. Oil - Higher. US$53 from US$52 from US$48
2. Gold - Lower. US$1228 from US$1233 from US$1284. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Flat. US$2.60 from US$2.59 from US$2.50
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2097 from 2055 from 1995
2. HK Equities - Flat. 24683 from 24679 from 24507. Support 23300. Resistance 24900; Buy Zhaojin and Avi China. Sold China Communication Construction.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3204 from 3076 from 3210. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3426 from 3431 from 3391. Traded Hutch Port
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17913 from 17649 from 17674
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1801 from 1813 from 1781. No Trade
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 119 from 119 from 118. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.65 from 2.62 from 2.68. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.78 from 2.77 from 2.82. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.14 from 1.13 from 1.13. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7557 from 7.7530 from 7.7519. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 94.19 from 94.65 from 94.80
Others
1. Sentiment - Confused ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation; Ukraine Ceasefire
4. Risk Management - Greed, Fear, Arrogance and Ignorance
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - euphoric ? Annual Supply 14,600 units. Annual Demand 20,000 units. Cummulative Shortfall of 85,000 units.
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.96% from 1.64% from 1.80%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Sweden cut interest rates to -0.1%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 29% (Long 35%; Short 6%) from 31% from 30%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Going Thru the Resistance ?
The S&P 500 has now gone thru the resistance of 2091. Would it be able to continue it's grind higher or would it be turning around soon ?
As I think that this is still a Trading Market, I'm betting that it would be turning downwards soon. Therefore, I will also continue to sell into any rallies. At the same time, I may also buy on any dips as interest rates is very low.
Anyway, I'm still monitoring various investment ideas:-
1. Macau: Revenue is still trending down but the shares of Galaxy and Sands may have turned around
2. Oil: There's still a glut but the price of oil seems to be turning around, perhaps due to short covering
3. Russia: The Russian ETFs are up, probably due to the rise of oil, the ceasefire and short-covering.
So is it time to buy Macau, Oil and Russia ? As for myself, I will continue to monitor them and will probably start buying when I see the "W" of 'Triple Bottom" forming on the charts.
In the meantime, I need to also remind myself that cheap can become cheaper but I also do not want to miss the boat if it starts moving.
I have waited patiently for the above three events to stabilize, so it may be time now to stagger in some buying.
However, the new high on the US markets is making me very uncomfortable as I feel that it's an accident waiting to happen.
Commodities:- - Mixed
1. Oil - Higher. US$53 from US$52 from US$48
2. Gold - Lower. US$1228 from US$1233 from US$1284. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Flat. US$2.60 from US$2.59 from US$2.50
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2097 from 2055 from 1995
2. HK Equities - Flat. 24683 from 24679 from 24507. Support 23300. Resistance 24900; Buy Zhaojin and Avi China. Sold China Communication Construction.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3204 from 3076 from 3210. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3426 from 3431 from 3391. Traded Hutch Port
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17913 from 17649 from 17674
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1801 from 1813 from 1781. No Trade
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 119 from 119 from 118. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.65 from 2.62 from 2.68. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.78 from 2.77 from 2.82. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.14 from 1.13 from 1.13. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7557 from 7.7530 from 7.7519. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 94.19 from 94.65 from 94.80
Others
1. Sentiment - Confused ?
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation; Ukraine Ceasefire
4. Risk Management - Greed, Fear, Arrogance and Ignorance
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - euphoric ? Annual Supply 14,600 units. Annual Demand 20,000 units. Cummulative Shortfall of 85,000 units.
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.96% from 1.64% from 1.80%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Sweden cut interest rates to -0.1%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 29% (Long 35%; Short 6%) from 31% from 30%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Feb 22, 2015 8:19 am
TOL as of Feb 22, 2015
Happy Lunar New Year !
It's the Lunar New Year again and I would like to take this opportunity to wish our Chinese readers, a very Happy & Prosperous New Year !
The US Market was strong on Friday and it was probably due to Options Expiry, as well as the 4 months extension for Greece. Therefore, I do not think that the buying in the US market, will continue into next week.
Yellen will also be speaking next week and it would be interesting to see whether she would be required to discuss the timing of the rate hike ahead.
In addition, the ceasefire in Ukraine is extremely fragile and it would be interesting to see whether it can hold.
In 2 weeks time, there would be new money arriving again, from the new month of March and there could be a bounce during the first week of March.
So will we have a weak US market next week and then a bounce in the week thereafter ?
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$50 from US$53 from US$52
2. Gold - Lower. US$1203 from US$1228 from US$1233. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Flat. US$2.60 from US$2.60 from US$2.59
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2110 from 2097 from 2055
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24832 from 24683 from 24679. Support 23300. Resistance 24900; Sold Wasion and 1/3 Avi China.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3247 from 3204 from 3076. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3436 from 3426 from 3431. Bought Hotung
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17913 from 17649 from 17674
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1808 from 1801 from 1813. No Trade
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 119 from 119 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.68 from 2.65 from 2.62. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.07 from 1.05 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.86 from 2.78 from 2.77. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.13. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7589 from 7.7557 from 7.7530. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 94.25 from 94.19 from 94.65
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation
4. Risk Management - Where would you be parking your money if a Black Swan (or Sheep) appears tomorrow ? Physical Gold? USD? Farmland? Physical Commodities?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.11% from 1.96% from 1.64%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Indonesia cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.5%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 31% (Long 38%; Short 7%) from 29% from 31%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Happy Lunar New Year !
It's the Lunar New Year again and I would like to take this opportunity to wish our Chinese readers, a very Happy & Prosperous New Year !
The US Market was strong on Friday and it was probably due to Options Expiry, as well as the 4 months extension for Greece. Therefore, I do not think that the buying in the US market, will continue into next week.
Yellen will also be speaking next week and it would be interesting to see whether she would be required to discuss the timing of the rate hike ahead.
In addition, the ceasefire in Ukraine is extremely fragile and it would be interesting to see whether it can hold.
In 2 weeks time, there would be new money arriving again, from the new month of March and there could be a bounce during the first week of March.
So will we have a weak US market next week and then a bounce in the week thereafter ?
Commodities:- - Risk-Off
1. Oil - Lower. US$50 from US$53 from US$52
2. Gold - Lower. US$1203 from US$1228 from US$1233. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Flat. US$2.60 from US$2.60 from US$2.59
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Risk-On
1. US Equities - Higher. 2110 from 2097 from 2055
2. HK Equities - Higher. 24832 from 24683 from 24679. Support 23300. Resistance 24900; Sold Wasion and 1/3 Avi China.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3247 from 3204 from 3076. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3436 from 3426 from 3431. Bought Hotung
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17913 from 17649 from 17674
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1808 from 1801 from 1813. No Trade
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 119 from 119 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.68 from 2.65 from 2.62. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.07 from 1.05 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.86 from 2.78 from 2.77. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.14 from 1.14 from 1.13. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7589 from 7.7557 from 7.7530. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 94.25 from 94.19 from 94.65
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation
4. Risk Management - Where would you be parking your money if a Black Swan (or Sheep) appears tomorrow ? Physical Gold? USD? Farmland? Physical Commodities?
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.11% from 1.96% from 1.64%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Indonesia cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.5%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 31% (Long 38%; Short 7%) from 29% from 31%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Mar 15)
by winston » Sun Mar 01, 2015 8:10 am
TOL as of Feb 22, 2015
New Month of March
It's March soon, so new money from the new month, will be flowing into the market again.
Therefore, I will need to first wait for the bounce in the first week of March before shorting the US market again.
I still think that the US markets are a bit extended so I will continue to short it, whenever I have the chance.
In addition, "Sell in May And Go Away" is also not too far away from here.
At the same time, I dont think that there would be any prolonged correction, so it would not be a bad strategy to be also buying on any dips.
Commodities:- - Risk-On
1. Oil - Flat. US$50 from US$50 from US$53
2. Gold - Higher. US$1214 from US$1203 from US$1228. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Higher. US$17 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Higher. US$2.69 from US$2.60 from US$2.60
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Mixed
1. US Equities - Lower. 2105 from 2110 from 2097
2. HK Equities - Lower. 24823 from 24832 from 24683. Support 23300. Resistance 24900; Bought Sands China, SJM and CGN. Traded Wasion and Galaxy. Sold Avi China.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3310 from 3247 from 3204. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3403 from 3436 from 3426. No trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 18798 from 17913 from 17649
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1821 from 1808 from 1801. Traded Menang and Wintoni. Sold Pelikan
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 120 from 119 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.65 from 2.68 from 2.65. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.82 from 2.86 from 2.78. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.12 from 1.14 from 1.14. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7554 from 7.7589 from 7.7557. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 95.25 from 94.25 from 94.19
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation
4. Risk Management - Reminder: "Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident"
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.99% from 2.11% from 1.96%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Indonesia cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.5%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 29% (Long 36%; Short 7%) from 29% from 31%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
New Month of March
It's March soon, so new money from the new month, will be flowing into the market again.
Therefore, I will need to first wait for the bounce in the first week of March before shorting the US market again.
I still think that the US markets are a bit extended so I will continue to short it, whenever I have the chance.
In addition, "Sell in May And Go Away" is also not too far away from here.
At the same time, I dont think that there would be any prolonged correction, so it would not be a bad strategy to be also buying on any dips.
Commodities:- - Risk-On
1. Oil - Flat. US$50 from US$50 from US$53
2. Gold - Higher. US$1214 from US$1203 from US$1228. Record US$1920. Vested.
3. Silver - Higher. US$17 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49
4. Copper - Higher. US$2.69 from US$2.60 from US$2.60
5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.
Equities - Mixed
1. US Equities - Lower. 2105 from 2110 from 2097
2. HK Equities - Lower. 24823 from 24832 from 24683. Support 23300. Resistance 24900; Bought Sands China, SJM and CGN. Traded Wasion and Galaxy. Sold Avi China.
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3310 from 3247 from 3204. Resistance 3400. No Trade
4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3403 from 3436 from 3426. No trade
5. Japan Equities - Higher. 18798 from 17913 from 17649
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1821 from 1808 from 1801. Traded Menang and Wintoni. Sold Pelikan
7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Added to S&P Short ETF
Currencies- Mixed
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 120 from 119 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested
2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.65 from 2.68 from 2.65. Vested.
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested
4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested
5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.82 from 2.86 from 2.78. Vested
6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.12 from 1.14 from 1.14. Not vested
7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7554 from 7.7589 from 7.7557. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested
8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 95.25 from 94.25 from 94.19
Others
1. Sentiment - Complacent
2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$5.7t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation
4. Risk Management - Reminder: "Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident"
5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?
6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.99% from 2.11% from 1.96%
7. Interest Rates:-
a. Indonesia cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.5%
8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 29% (Long 36%; Short 7%) from 29% from 31%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
Please Note:-
Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.
Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 118906
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
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