Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 23, 2012:-



Happy Holidays !

There's only a week more to the end of the year.

And if there's any more last minute Window Dressing activities, it would have to be around this time.

Intuitively, I think that the traders have already lighten up on their position. It has been a good year for them so why bother with having a big position, especially with the Fiscal Cliff in sight ?

It's only the long fund managers who are around, to makesure that their Dec 31st closing numbers is nice.

As for myself, I hve been on a Trading Break as I want to be very sharp and fast next week


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$88.96 from US$86.81 last week from US$85.98 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1658 from US$1698 last week from US$1706 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Lower. US$3.56 from US$3.68 last week from US$3.66 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1430 from 1414 last week from 1418 the previous week. Support of 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22506 from 22606 last week from 22191 the previous week. Resistance at 22800 then 23,700 ? Support at 21700 then 20800 ? Buy Shui On Land. Sold China High Speed Transmission.

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2153 from 2151 last week from 2062 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3164 from 3168 last week from 3107 the previous week. Bought SC Global.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9940 from 9738 last week from 9527 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 84.23 from 83.50 last week from 82.46 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.63.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5067 from 2.5073 last week from 2.5034 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0403 from 1.0570 last week from 1.0493 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2699 from 1.2886 last week from 1.2807 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3184 from 1.3158 last week from 1.2926 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7500 from 7.7500 last week from 7.7501 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Flat. 79.57 from 79.57 last week from 80.42 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.47% from 4.60% last week from 4.53% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.25% from 5.39% last week from 5.46% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.76% from 1.70% last week from 1.62% the previous week.


Risk-On

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$74b from HK$64b last week from HK$68b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Complacent ?


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

3. Risk Management -

4. Properties - If the high ends are not moving, what will happen to the mass-markets ?

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Getting closer to mid January.

6. Window Dressing - Final week

7. US Market Direction: Friday- Weaker

I'm very surprized that the market is still moving on the Fiscal Cliff news.

As far as I'm concerned, it's a non-event.

However, the "experts" are continuing to harp on it, on both CNBC and Bloomberg.

Am I missing something ? Is it really a non-event ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 30, 2012:-

Happy 2013 !




Tomorrow will be the last day for any Window-Dressing.

And will your fav stock be jumping for no apparent reason ?

Or has it been jumping already for the past two weeks ?

Anyway, it has been quite a good 2012 ( unless you are a Perma-Bear )

And may you all be always Healthy, Wealthy, Happy and Lucky in 2013 !


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$90.81 from US$88.96 last week from US$86.81 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1656 from US$1658 last week from US$1698 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.59 from US$3.56 last week from US$3.68 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Lower. 1402 from 1430 last week from 1414 the previous week. Support at 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22667 from 22506 last week from 22606 the previous week. Resistance at 22800 then 23,700 ? Support at 21700 ? Sold Minmetal Land and 1/3 Rexlot.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2233 from 2153 last week from 2151 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3192 from 3164 last week from 3168 the previous week. Added to SC Global.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 10395 from 9940 last week from 9738 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 86.06 from 84.23 last week from 83.50 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 86.55.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5018 from 2.5067 last week from 2.5073 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0366 from 1.0403 last week from 1.0570 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2691 from 1.2699 last week from 1.2886 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3221 from 1.3184 last week from 1.3158 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7515 from 7.7500 last week from 7.7500 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Higher. 79.66 from 79.57 last week from 79.57 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 4.50% from 4.47% last week from 4.60% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Flat. 5.26% from 5.25% last week from 5.39% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.69% from 1.76% last week from 1.70% the previous week.


Risk-Off ?

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$41b from HK$74b last week from HK$64b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Complacent ?


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

3. Risk Management - Are you well diversified before the next plunge ?

4. Properties - US properties seems to be heading higher

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting for the "M"

6. Window Dressing - Last Day tomorrow

7. US Market Direction: Friday- Weaker

It looks like the market is still moving up and down on the "Fiscal Cliff" news.

Do you not find that to be a bit funny ?

Do you really think that the world will end on Jan 1st, if the stuff is not renewed ?

Do you really think that the world will end, if the thing is delayed for a few weeks or even months ?

And do you really think the world be that rosy, even if the thing is renewed on time ?

Do you know why you are buying or selling ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 06, 2013:-




Irrational Exuberance ?

The actions the last few days were a bit funny.

Why would you be buying just because there was supposedly a deal on the Fiscal Cliff ?

And have they really sorted out all the problems ?

What about the debates on Spending, Debt Ceiling and Deficits, in late Febuary and March ?

Enjoy the show but start counting the number of rows to the emergency exit ..


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$93.19 from US$90.81 last week from US$88.96 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1658 from US$1656 last week from US$1658 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.70 from US$3.59 last week from US$3.56 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1466 from 1402 last week from 1430 the previous week. Support at 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23331 from 22667 last week from 22506 the previous week. Resistance at 23,700 ? Support at 21700 ? Sold Shui On Land. Added to Zhaojin.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2277 from 2233 last week from 2153 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3225 from 3192 last week from 3164 the previous week. Added to SC Global.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 10688 from 10395 last week from 9940 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 88.16 from 86.06 last week from 84.23 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 88.39.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4826 from 2.5018 last week from 2.5067 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0475 from 1.0366 last week from 1.0403 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2863 from 1.2691 last week from 1.2699 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3064 from 1.3221 last week from 1.3184 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7504 from 7.7515 last week from 7.7500 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Higher. 80.48 from 79.66 last week from 79.57 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.27% from 4.50% last week from 4.47% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.06% from 5.26% last week from 5.25% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.90% from 1.69% last week from 1.76% the previous week.


Risk-On

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$79b from HK$41b last week from HK$74b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Exhilaration ?


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

3. Risk Management - What would you be doing if there's a dip ?

4. Properties - HK transactions are much lower

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

6. US Market Direction- Stronger

Do you really understand what's going on in the US market ?

Do you really have all the information to make an informed decsion eg. Fiscal Cliff, Debt Ceiling Debates, Spending Cuts etc ?

Do you know why you are so anxious to buy ?

Why are you so afraid of missing the train ?

And what happened the last time, when you decided to chase your favourite stock ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 13, 2013:-

Exhilaration ?



Have you been watching the small caps and laggards lately ?

How can a stock be jumping 30% to 50% in a month ?

Has fundamentals really changed from a month ago ?

Is this not a warning sign that the end may be near ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$93.77 from US$93.19 last week from US$90.81 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$16.62 from US$1658 last week from US$1656 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Lower. US$3.66 from US$3.70 last week from US$3.59 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1471 from 1466 last week from 1402 the previous week. Support at 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23264 from 23331 last week from 22667 the previous week. Resistance at 23,700 ? Support at 21700 ? Sold 1/2 Rexlot. Bought Gapack & Weigao.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2243 from 2277 last week from 2233 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3217 from 3225 last week from 3192 the previous week. No trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 10802 from 10688 last week from 10395 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 89.18 from 88.16 last week from 86.06 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 89.38.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4647 from 2.4826 last week from 2.5018 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern. The Malaysian workers will be changing their SGD into MYR soon.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0532 from 1.0475 last week from 1.0366 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2907 from 1.2863 last week from 1.2691 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3344 from 1.3064 last week from 1.3221 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7533 from 7.7504 last week from 7.7515 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Lower. 79.56 from 80.48 last week from 79.66 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.13% from 4.27% last week from 4.50% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 4.89% from 5.06% last week from 5.26% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.87% from 1.90% last week from 1.69% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$83b from HK$79b last week from HK$41b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Are you afraid of selling, in case your counter move out further ?

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

5. Risk Management - Should you now be tightening or loosening the Stops ?

6. Properties - S'pore: Are the new rules providing you with a chance to buy somehing at a better price ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Flat

It's US Earnings season and the market dont seemed to be going anywhere.

Normally, the market would be quite strong now. Thereafter, it would taper off later.

Is this a sign of market fatigue setting in ?

If you are a Fund Manager, what would you be doing ? Hope for a dip to buy ? Or use the current strength to sell while you can ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 20, 2013:-



Complacency ?

The market has been grinding higher.

And positive US Earnings, Fund Flows, Chinese Stats etc have been helping things.

In addition, my friends and relatives are again complaining, that they are getting close to zero on their FDs.

And under this scenario, can some bad news from Europe, US Deficit Debate etc really derail things ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$95.25 from US$93.77 last week from US$93.19 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1684 from US$1662 last week from US$1658 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$31.90 from US$30.44 last week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low:

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.68 from US$3.66 last week from US$3.70 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1486 from 1471 last week from 1466 lthe previous week. Support at 1402 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23602 from 23264 last week from 23331 the previous week. Resistance at 23,700 ? Support at 21700 ? Sold Gapack & Weigao.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2317 from 2243 last week from 2277 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3211 from 3217 last week from 3225 the previous week. Traded Keppel Land.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 10913 from 10802 last week from 10688 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 90.08 from 89.18 last week from 88.16 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 90.17.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4556 from 2.4647 last week from 2.4826 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern. The Malaysian workers are changing their SGD into MYR.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0509 from 1.0532 last week from 1.0475 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2895 from 1.2907 last week from 1.2863 the previous week;
H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3320 from 1.3344 last week from 1.3064 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7528 from 7.7533 last week from 7.7504 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Higher. 80.05 from 79.56 last week from 80.48 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Mixed

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 4.17% from 4.13% last week from 4.27% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.08% from 4.89% last week from 5.06% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.84% from 1.87% last week from 1.90% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$77b from HK$83b last week from HK$79b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

5. Risk Management - Seeking Alpha or Managing Beta ?

6. Properties - Will there be more curbs if property prices continue to be strong ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Higher

What would be the next catalyst that will drive the market higher ?

Would it be the outflows from the Bond market into Equities ?

Or are we being too complacent ?

What has really changed from 6 months ago ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 27, 2013:-



Complacency

When you watch CNBC and as you talked to your friends and relatives, you would be able to feel the complacency in the air.

Everyone feels that they need to get some return on their money and they are so afraid of missing the boat.

However, when you look at the indices, they are not looking that great, especially the HSI.

What will make it lose momentum ?

Worst still, what would cause it to correct sharply ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$96.10 from US$95.25 last week from US$93.77 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1658 from US$1684 last week from US$1662 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$31.18 from US$31.90 last week from US$30.44 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.90

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.66 from US$3.68 flast week rom US$3.66 the previous week.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 1503 from 1486 last week from 1471 lthe previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23580 from 23602 last week from 23264 the previous week. Resistance at 23,700 ? No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2291 from 2317 last week from 2243 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3269 from 3211 last week from 3217 the previous week. No trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 10927 from 10913 last week from 10802 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 90.88 from 90.08 last week from 89.18 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 91.18.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.4631 from 2.4556 last week from 2.4647 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern. The Malaysian workers are now changing their SGD into MYR before CNY.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0424 from 1.0509 last week from 1.0532 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2884 from 1.2895 last week from 1.2907 the previous week;
H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3461 from 1.3320 from 1.3344 last week from 1.3064 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7542 from 7.7528 last week from 7.7533 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.76 from 80.05 last week from 79.56 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Mixed

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.13% from 4.17% last week from 4.13% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.17% from 5.08% last week from 4.89% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.95% from 1.84% last week from 1.87% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$76b from HK$77b from HK$83b last week from HK$79b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

5. Risk Management - Are you well diversified ?

6. Properties - Prices are still strong. Do you dare to buy at this time ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Higher

The grind higher continues as US earnings are coming in above expectation ( as expected ).

But how will AAPL be behaving in the next few weeks ?

And will the debt ceiling debates derail things ?

Also, will the rating agencies make use of the current situation to downgrade things ? This is because it's not politically correct to be downgrading things when they are plunging .

Enjoy the ride but do keep a look-out at where the emergency exit is ...


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 03, 2013:-



Euphoria ?

Everyone seems to think that the unlimited printing of money will continue to support the market.

And the "experts" are also talking about the switching of bonds into equities.

No one seems to be afraid anymore and the Risk-On trade is certainly happening eg. Emerging Markets, EUR, AUD, Equities, Commodities etc.

So what are you going to do ?

Buy, Sell or Hold ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$97.61 from US$96.10 last week from US$95.25 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1669 from US$1658 last week from US$1684 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$31.84 from US$31.18 last week from US$31.90 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.90

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.78 from US$3.66 last week from US$3.68 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1513 from 1503 last week from 1486 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23722 from 23580 last week from 23602 the previous week. Traded Rexlot. Bought Minmetal Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2419 from 2291 last week from 2317 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3291 from 3269 last week from 3211 the previous week. Sold 1/2 OUE.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 11191 from 10927 last week from 10913 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 92.79 from 90.88 last week from 90.08 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 92.98.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5045 from 2.4631 last week from 2.4556 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern. The Malaysian workers are now changing their SGD into MYR before CNY.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0407 from 1.0424 last week from 1.0509 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2910 from 1.2884 last week from 1.2895 the previous week;
H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3652 from 1.3461 last week from 1.3320 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7564 from 7.7542 last week from 7.7528 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.18 from 79.76 last week from 80.05 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 4.33% from 4.13% last week from 4.17% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.23% from 5.17% last week from 5.08% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.99% from 1.95% last week from 1.84% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$72b from HK$76b last week from HK$77b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

5. Risk Management - What would you do if the market suddenly drops 2% ?

6. Properties - Transactions are down

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Higher

This US market is starting to frighten me.

it has gone up in a straight line without much of a pause.

And any small thing can trigger a stampede.

Enjoy the ride while you can but start thinking what would be your reaction, if there's a 5-10% correction in a very quick time.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 10, 2013:-



Happy Year of the Snake !

The Feng Shui masters mentioned that the first part of the year should be good for the markets

So it looks like the euphoria, may continue for a while longer.

And the dip this week, could be a blip, as the markets grind higher.

May you all be Healthy, Wealthy, Happy & Lucky, in the Year of the Snake !

By the way, as mentioned in "The Zurich Axioms", "if astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich"


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$95.79 from US$97.61 last week from US$96.10 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1668 from US$1669 last week from US$1658 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$31.42 from US$31.84 last week from US$31.18 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.90

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.76 from US$3.78 last week from US$3.66 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 1517 from 1513 last week from 1503 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23215 from 23722 last week from 23580 the previous week. Sold Rexlot & CLP. Bought Sinopec, Minmetal Land, Ajisen and China Unicom. Traded Lansen.

3.. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2432 from 2419 last week from 2291 the previous week.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3270 from 3291 last week from 3269 the previous week. Bought JMH. Added to Saizen.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 11153 from 11191 last week from 10927 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 92.71 from 92.79 last week from 90.88 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 94.05.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5027 from 2.5045 last week from 2.4631 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0319 from 1.0407 last week from 1.0424 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2779 from 1.2910 last week from 1.2884 the previous week;
H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3366 from 1.3652 last week from 1.3461 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7550 from 7.7564 last week from 7.7542 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.22 from 79.18 last week from 79.76 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 4.55% from 4.33% last week from 4.13% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.36% from 5.23% last week from 5.17% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.95% from 1.99% last week from 1.95% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$87b from HK$72b last week from HK$76b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

5. Risk Management - The dip this week caught a lot of people by surprised. Do you know why you are buying or selling ?

6. Properties - New property Curbs in China from March ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Formation of "M" ?

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Higher

Now that we have seen the technical rebound, where do we go from here ?

Do you hold and hope that the market will continue to grind higher ?

Or do you sell, in anticipation of another sell-down, as those guys who did not managed to get out, will now be selling.

The "experts" on TV, are also now telling you to raise Cash.

As for myself, I think that the market may continue to grind higher but I'm also keeping an eye on where the emergency exit is.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 17, 2013:-



Unease ?

The US Market has not really gone anywhere for the past past two weeks.

Is it buying some time before the next move upwards ?

Or is it in a Distribution phase now ?

Do you have that strange feeling that maybe something is not so right ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$95.94 from US$95.79 last week from US$97.61 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1608 from US$1668 last week from US$1669 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - . Lower. US$29.78 from US$31.42 last week from US$31.84 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.68

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.74 from US$3.76 last week from US$3.78 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1519 from 1517 last week from 1513 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23445 from 23215 last week from 23722 the previous week. Sold Ajisen

3.. Shanghai Equities - Holiday. 2432 last week from 2419 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3283 from 3270 last week from 3291 the previous week. Sold JMH.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 11174 from 11153 last week from 11191 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 93.52 from 92.71 last week from 92.79 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 94.05.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5012 from 2.5027 last week from 2.5045 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0306 from 1.0319 last week from 1.0407 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2749 from 1.2779 last week from 1.2910 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3364 from 1.3366 last week from 1.3652 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7545 from 7.7550 last week from 7.7564 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.46 from 80.22 last week from 79.18 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-on

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.38% from 4.55% last week from 4.33% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.19% from 5.36% last week from 5.23% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.00% from 1.95% last week from 1.99% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$52b from HK$87b last week from HK$72b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Complacent.

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - Everyone seems to think that the market will grind higher. What would you be doing if it does not grind higher ?

6. Properties - More property curbs ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Flat

US Earnings season is no longer a catalyst for the market. So what could be the next catalyst ?

The "experts" have been talking about the "Great Rotation", from Bonds & even Gold, into Equities. Could that be the next catalyst ?

The retail players have also been talking about the need to get more return on their money. Could that be the next catalyst ?

And everyone seems to be expecting the market to grind higher and are looking for reasons, to support their case.

While nobody is talking about any correction at all ....

Does that not give you a bit of unease ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 17, 2013:-

Denial ?



The market has not really gone anywhere for a few weeks.

Is this the beginning of the end ?

The "experts" are also out in full force, to frighten you again

After crying "wolf" so many times, would they be right this time ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower.US$93.36 from US$95.94 last week from US$95.79 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1580 from US$1608 last week from US$1668 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - . Lower. US$28.70 from US$29.78 last week from US$31.42 the previous week. Range High: 49.50; Range Low: 29.68

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.54 from US$3.74 last week from US$3.76 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1516 from 1519 last week from 1517 the previous week. Support at 1457 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22782 from 23445 last week from 23215 the previous week. Bought Rexlot

3.. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2314 from 2432 last week from 2419 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3288 from 3283 last week from 3270 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 11386 from 11174 last week from 11153 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 93.41 from 93.52 last week from 92.71 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 94.05.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5052 from 2.5012 last week from 2.5027 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0313 from 1.0306 last week from 1.0319 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2769 from 1.2749 last week from 1.2779 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3196 from 1.3364 last week from 1.3366 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7545 from 7.7550 last week from 7.7564 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.44 from 80.46 last week from 80.22 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 4.45% from 4.38% last week from 4.55% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.15% from 5.19% last week from 5.36% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.96% from 2.00% last week from 1.95% the previous week.


Others

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$66b from HK$52b last week from HK$87b the previous week.

2. Sentiment - Unease

3. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Chinese Slowdown, Debt Ceiling Debates

4. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

5. Risk Management - How's your Diversification and Cash level ?

6. Properties - How's sentiment lately ? Are you able to get what you have been asking ?

7. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No Set-Up yet

8. Friday's US Market Direction- Higher

We got the technical rebound, now what ?

And are there enough catalyst to propel the market higher ?

Sentiment is certainly not as strong as before, not to mentioned that the Insider's have been selling ?

Are we in the "Denial" stage now, after "Unease" ?




The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.