Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:43 am

TOL as of July 29, 2012:-

Image


Same Old Same Old

The Dow moved about 400 points in 2 days.

This was despite some very bad earnings.

Supposedly, a simple comment out of Europe, can really move markets.

Do you smell something fishy ?


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Flat. US$90 from US$91 last week from US$87 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Higher. US$1623 from US$1583 last week from US$1591 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$27.70 from US$27.30 last week from US$27.25 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Higher. 1386 from 1363 last week from 1357 the previous week. Support at 1310 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 19275 from 19641 last week from 19093 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. Support at 18,800. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2129 from 2169 last week from 2186 the previous week. Support at 2150 taken out. Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2998 from 3016 last week from 2996 the previous week. Sold Starhill and 80% Fraser Commercial

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8567 from 8670 last week from 8724 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Flat. 78.51 from 78.50 last week from 79.27 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.5341 from 2.5085 last week from 2.5174 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.0472 from 1.0400 last week from 1.0231 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Stronger. 1.2325 from 1.2154 last week from 1.2248 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7573 from 7.7565 last week from 7.7569 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Weaker. 82.63 from 83.50 last week from 83.28 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.96% from 6.17% last week from 6.06% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 6.74% from 7.27% last week from 6.66% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.55% from 1.46% last week from 1.49% the previous week.

4. Phillipines cut interest rates by 25 bps


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$43b ( accounted for 1/2 Day of typhoon ) from HK$42b last week from HK$42 the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Stronger

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleverag6. ing, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - What will you be doing when the markets dropped by 15% ?


Others

1. Properties - HK Commercial: Cushman & Wakefield expects rent for office space to advance 10% in the second half of this year.

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade.

3. US Market Direction - Higher

It looks like the PPT was hard at work.

How else can you explained the 400 points move on the Dow, in the past 2 days ?

More importantly, is whether there would be some coordinated efforts next week, to whack the shorts.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at
your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 05, 2012 8:46 am

TOL as of Aug 05, 2012:-

Image


Noise

I'm reminding myself to be more aware of, where I'm spending my time.

This is because there's an Opportunity Cost for my time spent on Drahi, Jacksonhole, Chinese PMI or Greece.

I may know what the noise is about but would it really make me some serious money ?

The trick here is to know just enough, whle having some energy left to uncover the hidden gems around me.

And some of the recent lost opportunities, include Cerebos and K1 Ventures :(


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Higher. US$91 from US$90 last week from US$91 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Lower. US$1607 from US$1623 last week from US$1583 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$27.77 from US$27.70 last week from US$27.30 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.

4. Copper - US$3.36. Time to start monitoring Dr. Copper on a weekly basis, to have a feel of the global economic situation.

5. Grains - When will the effects of the drought be felt ?


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1391 from 1386 last week from 1363 the previous week. Support at 1310 ? Resistance at 1403 then 1419 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19666 from 19275 last week from 19641 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. Support at 18,800. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2133 from 2129 last week from 2169 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3051 from 2998 last week from 3016 the previous week. No Trade.

5. Japan Equities - Flat. 8555 from 8567 last week from 8670 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk On

1. JPY - Flat. 78.53 from 78.51 last week from 78.50 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.5172 from 2.5341 last week from 2.5085 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.0563 from 1.0472 last week from 1.0400 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Stronger. 1.2388 from 1.2325 last week from 1.2154 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7547 from 7.7573 last week from 7.7565 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Weaker. 82.31 from 82.63 last week from 83.50 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 6.05% from 5.96% last week from 6.17% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.85% from 6.74% last week from 7.27% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 1.56% from 1.55% last week from 1.46% the previous week.


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows on Inflows last week on Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$46b from HK$43b ( accounted for 1/2 Day of typhoon ) from HK$42b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Complacent

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleverag6. ing, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - How long does it take, for you to accept that you are wrong ?


Others

1. Properties - S'pore and HK are still going strong.

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade.

3. US Market Direction - Higher

The move on Friday caught a lot of people by surprise..

But why would it be a surprise when there's new money flowing in from a new month ?

And can you not feel the PPT at work ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at
your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 12, 2012 8:53 am

TOL as of Aug 12, 2012:-

Image


Resistance

The S&P has just taken out the Resistance at 1403. Can it steamed through or would this be it, for the time being ?

Coincidentally, the Reuters Jefferies CRB Index is also at it's Resistance ( 200 Day MA and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement ).

Anyway, Risk-On seems to be vogue for the past few weeks despite us being in the "perfect storm", as declared by Dr. Doom Roubini, not too long ago :P


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Higher. US$93 from US$91 last week from US$90 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Higher. US$1623 from US$1607 last week from US$1623 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$28.05 from US$27.77 last week from US$27.70 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.

4. Copper - US$3.41 from US$3.36 last week.

5. Grains - When will the high prices lead to some food riots ?

6. Reuter / Jefferies CRB Index hitting Resistance at 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement from last summer’s highs to this summer’s lows.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1406 from 1391 last week from 1386 the previous week. Support at 1310 ? Resistance at 1403 taken out. Next Stop 1419 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20136 from 19666 last week from 19275 the previous week. Resistance at 19,900 taken out. Next Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. Bought Dynam Japan and Li & Fung. Sold SHKP and Zijin. Traded Standard Chartered.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2169 from 2133 last week from 2129 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3054 from 3051 last week from 2998 the previous week. Sold Noble.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 8891 from 8555 last week from 8567 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk On

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.28 from 78.53 last week from 78.51 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.505 from 2.5172 last week from 2.5341 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.0577 from 1.0563 last week from 1.0472 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2290 from 1.2388 last week from 1.2325 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7577 from 7.7547 last week from 7.7573 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.55 from 82.31 last week from 82.63 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.90% from 6.05% last week from 5.96% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.91% from 6.85% last week from 6.74% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.66% from 1.56% last week from 1.55% the previous week.




Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows on Inflows last week on Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$47b from HK$46b last week from HK$43b ( accounted for 1/2 Day of typhoon ) the previous week

3. Sentiment - Complacent

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleverag6. ing, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - What is the path of least resistance from here ?


Others

1. Properties - Spanish properties will drop about 12% this year. And not too long ago, every European wants a holiday home in Spain. Is it that different from the situation in Dubai not too long ago and how's it different from the present situation in HK & Singapore ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade. However, Puts are now at elevated levels. Does someone knows something that you dont ?

3. US Market Direction - Higher

Earnings seasons is winding down, so it's back to following the news on QE3, ECB, Europe and China.

But those are not new news.

So why are you excited whenever Helicopter speaks or whenever there's some news on the ECB, Spain or China ?

Do you really know what you are doing ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at
your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 19, 2012 7:52 am

TOL as of Aug 19, 2012:-

Image

Multi-Year High

If you look at the S&P 500 chart, you will now find a multi-year high, that has not been reached since mid-2008.

And has the economy really change much since mid-2008 ?

More importantly, if you have been listening to the Dr. Dooms and Dr. Glooms, you have missed out on a very big rally, since the bottom of early 2009 :P


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On ?

1. Oil - Higher. US$96 from US$93 last week from US$91 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Lower. US$1618 from US$1623 last week from US$1607 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$28.00 from US$28.05 last week from US$27.77 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.41 from US$3.41 last week from US$3.36 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1418 from 1406 last week from 1391 the previous week. Support at 1310 ? At Resistance of 1419. Next Stop 1440 ?

2. HK Equities - Flat. 20116 from 20136 last week from 19666 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. Sold Lenovo.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2115 from 2169 last week from 2133 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3062 from 3054 last week from 3051 the previous week. No trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9163 from 8891 last week from 8555 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk On

1. JPY - Weaker. 79.55 from 78.28 last week from 78.53 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4977 from 2.505 last week from 2.5172 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Weaker. 1.0440 from 1.0577 last week from 1.0563 the previous week. Vested

4. AUD to SGD - Weaker. 1.3090 from 1.3181 last week ; H 1.36; L 1.24;

5. EUR - Stronger. 1.2335 from 1.2290 last week from 1.2388 the previous week.

6. HKD - Stronger. 7.7567 from 7.7577 last week from 7.7547 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Flat. 82.54 from 82.55 last week from 82.31 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.79% from 5.90% last week from 6.05% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 6.44% from 6.91% last week from 6.85% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.81% from 1.66% last week from 1.56% the previous week.


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week on Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$45b from HK$47b last week from HK$46b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Complacent

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleverag6. ing, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management
a. When the VIX is slow, it's time to go slow :P
b. Carry an umbrella even if you think that you will not need it


Others

1. Properties
a. Crown Relocations reports the number of people it's moving into Hong Kong this year is down by about a quarter from a year ago, while the number it's moving out, is up by about a quarter.
b. HK property prices have risen 11% year-to-date

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade.

3. US Market Direction - Grinding Higher

The shorts must be in quite a bit of pain now.

Or have they covered already and are now enjoying themselves on the beach ?

But who has been buying into this rally if not the shorts ?

It cant be the "retail money", as they never came back after the crash of 2008 / 2009.

Or could it be the "Smart Money" that was sitting in Cash & Bonds, waiting for the crash that did not come.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at
your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:45 am

TOL as of Aug 26, 2012:-

Image

Calm before The Storm ?

Summer would be over soon and everyone would be back.

Would they be Buying because they are so behind the indices ? Or would they be Selling, to take some profits ?

Would the shorts be also initiating some new positions, in view of the multi-year high ?

And what would the clowns in Europe be doing, when they get back from their beaches ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off ?

1. Oil - Flat. US$96 from US$96 last week from US$93 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Higher. US$1669 from US$1618 last week from US$1623 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$30.72 from US$28.00 last week from US$28.05 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.48 from US$3.41 last week from US$3.41 the previous week.
.

Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1411 from 1418 last week from 1406 the previous week. Support at 1365 ? Resistance at 1419 then 1440 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19880 from 20116 last week from 20136 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. Sold Li & Fung.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2092 from 2115 last week from 2169 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3050 from 3062 last week from 3054 the previous week. Bought Singapore Post

5. Japan Equities -Lower. 9071 from 9163 last week from 8891 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.68 from 79.55 last week from 78.28 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4786 from 2.4977 last week from 2.505 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Weaker. 1.0440 from 1.0577 last week from 1.0563 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Weaker. 1.3008 from 1.3090 last week from 1.3181 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Stronger. 1.2514 from 1.2335 last week from 1.2290 the previous week.

6. HKD - Flat. 7.7568 from 7.7567 last week from 7.7577 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 81.62 from 82.54 last week from 82.55 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk Off ?

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.71% from 5.79% last week from 5.90% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 6.42% from 6.44% last week from 6.91% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.68% from 1.81% last week from 1.66% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets- Weaker. Outflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$41b from HK$45b last week from HK$47b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Cautious

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - How's your Cash level ?


Others

1. Properties - Ultra luxury HK apartment, sold for US$61m ( US$9,773 per-square-foot )

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Cleaning up Watchlist

3. US Market Direction - Lower

Does not seemed too strong to me.

And the S&P could not really penetrate it's resistance at around 1420.
.
Earnings would no longer be providing the catalyst for market movements, so it's back to Economic Datas and Helicopters.

It may not be a bad idea to review the portfolio, to see whether it can withstand a bad storm.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the
forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 02, 2012 7:10 am

TOL as of Sep 02, 2012:-

Image


New Month

It's a new month and there would be new money flowing into the market again.

So things may be quite stable over the next week.

And thereafter, Window Dressing could also be kicking in again.

The US Presidential election is also only about 2 months away and the "invisible hands" should now be hard at work.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk Off ?

1. Oil - Flat. US$97 from US$96 last week from US$96 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Higher. US$1693 from US$1669 last week from US$1618 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$31.69 from US$30.72 last week from US$28.00 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Not vested anymore.

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.46 from US$3.48 last week from US$3.41 the previous week.
.


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1407 from 1411 last week from 1418 the previous week. Support at 1365 ? Resistance at 1440 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19483 from 19880 last week from 20116 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. Sold Silver ETF 10072 as I did not like the wide Bid / Ask gap.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2048 from 2092 last week from 2115 the previous week. Cheap became cheaper :(. Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3025 from 3050 last week from 3062 the previous week. Sold 2/3 GuocoLeisure.

5. Japan Equities -Lower. 8840 from 9071 last week from 9163 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk Off ?

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.38 from 78.68 last week from 79.55 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.5051 from 2.4786 last week from 2.4977 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Weaker. 1.0324 from 1.0440 last week from 1.0577 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Weaker. 1.2877 from 1.3008 last week from 1.3090 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Stronger. 1.2580 from 1.2514 last week from 1.2335 the previous week.

6. HKD - Stronger. 7.7558 from 7.7568 last week from 7.7567 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 81.25 from 81.62 last week from 82.54 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.85% from 5.71% last week from 5.79% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.86% from 6.42% last week from 6.44% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.55% from 1.68% last week from 1.81% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets- Weaker. Outflows from Outflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$40b from HK$41b last week from HK$45b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Cautious. And was it because of Jackson Hole ?

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - What would you be doing, if the market continues to be strong ?


Others

1. Properties - HK: HK Properties for HK Locals only ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Watchlist ready but it's not the time to pull the trigger. Maybe around November ?

3. US Market Direction - Lower

The traders are back and which direction do you think that they would be betting on ?

If they have been sitting on Cash, they are now under-performing the market.

And I cant see them being fully invested while they were away on their Summer Vacation.

So maybe the calm before the storm may last a little while longer, until after the US Presidential Election.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 09, 2012 8:51 am

TOL as of Sep 09, 2012:-

Image

3Q Window Dressing

It's Window Dressing time again.

And this quarter may be quite important as Christmas Bonus is just around the corner.

In addition, the US Presidential Election is only about 2 months away.

So I'm reminding myself again, not to buy any puts until at least November.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk On ?

1. Oil - Flat. US$96 from US$97 last week from US$96 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ? Summer Driving is over.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1738 from US$1693 last week from US$1669 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.64 from US$3.46 last week from US$3.48 the previous week.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1438 from 1407 last week from 1411 the previous week. Support at 1365 ? Resistance at 1440 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19802 from 19483 last week from 19880 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. Traded Lenovo. Bought Ajisen

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2128 from 2048 last week from 2092 the previous week. RMB 1t Stimulus. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3012 from 3025 last week from 3050 the previous week. No trade.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 8872 from 8840 last week from 9071 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk On ?

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.23 from 78.38 last week from 78.68 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.5159 from 2.5051 last week from 2.4786 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Stronger. 1.0385 from 1.0324 last week from 1.0440 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Weaker. 1.2844 from 1.2877 last week from 1.3008 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Stronger. 1.2818 from 1.2580 last week from 1.2514 the previous week.

6. HKD - Flat. 7.7560 from 7.7558 last week from 7.7568 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.16 from 81.25 last week from 81.62 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.06% from 5.85% last week from 5.71% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.63% from 6.86% last week from 6.42% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.67% from 1.55% last week from 1.68% the previous week.


Risk-On ?

1. Emerging Markets- Weaker. Outflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$52b from HK$40b last week from HK$41b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Bullish.

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - What would you be doing, if the market drifts aimlessly for 2-3 years ?


Others

1. Properties - HK: Development at the old Kai Tak airport

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. Window Dressing - Should be starting around now

4. US Market Direction - Higher

Suddenly, there are money out there, to push stocks higher.

And the shorts didnt know what blew them away.

Maybe we have been too overly pessimistic.

Or maybe we have been reading too many negative articles from David Rosenberg, AG Edwards, Gary Schilling and Nouriel Roubini ?

Is the world really ending ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the
forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby kennynah » Sun Sep 09, 2012 10:38 am

Sgd getting stronger against myr. Time to visit mountain 8-)
Options Strategies & Discussions .(Trading Discipline : The Science of Constantly Acting on Knowledge Consistently - kennynah).Investment Strategies & Ideas

Image..................................................................<A fool gives full vent to his anger, but a wise man keeps himself under control-Proverbs 29:11>.................................................................Image
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby newplayer » Sun Sep 09, 2012 10:56 am

Hi Winston

Please refer to Bloomberg's report below.

Could you please advise me on the following:

1) What are the counters that could potentially benefit from the new China government's new measure?

2) How do I buy the China shares? I am a Singaporean.

3) Where can I see the live prices, historical price charts and more info on China shares (free websites)?

4) Can I buy A50 ETF in Singapore? Does A50 ETF price go up when the Shanghai market goes up?

5) Could you please give some details on Ajisen?

Thank you.


Bloomberg's report:

China on Sept. 5 and 6 announced approvals forinfrastructure spending to support growth as Europe’s debt crisis crimpsexports and a property crackdown damps domestic demand. The NationalDevelopment & Reform Commission, the top planning agency, gave the go-aheadfor construction of 2,018 kilometers (1,254 miles) of roads and subway projectsin 18 cities. Nomura Holdings Inc. estimated the total value of projectsapproved at about 1 trillion yuan ($158 billion).

Chinese shares surged on the news, with the benchmarkShanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closing 3.7 percent higher on Sept. 7, thebiggest advance since Jan. 17.

By focusing on infrastructure to boost growth, Hu andPremier Wen Jiabao may risk exacerbating the imbalances they have pledged to combat.

Spending on roads, bridges, subways and other public-worksprojects surged in 2009 and 2010 as much of a 4 trillion yuan stimulus, and anunprecedented expansion in bank lending, was directed toward local governmentprojects. That led to a rise in debt at the local level to at least 10.7trillion yuan as of 2010, according to an official audit
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Aug 12)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:10 pm

newplayer wrote:Hi Winston

Please refer to Bloomberg's report below.

Could you please advise me on the following:

1) What are the counters that could potentially benefit from the new China government's new measure?

2) How do I buy the China shares? I am a Singaporean.

3) Where can I see the live prices, historical price charts and more info on China shares (free websites)?

4) Can I buy A50 ETF in Singapore? Does A50 ETF price go up when the Shanghai market goes up?

5) Could you please give some details on Ajisen?

Thank you.



Hi newplayer,

Welcome to the forum ! I hope that your stay here is an enjoyable and profitable one.

I will try to answer your questions as best as I can:-

1. I dont really provide specific stock recommendations. For the Chinese Stimulus, people have being buying the cement companies, railway companies, steel companies, coal companies etc. To read up on this industries, you can go into the "Business Sectors & Industries" section of this forum, located under the "Other Investment Instrument & Ideas" section .
Here's the link:- viewforum.php

To me this Chinese Stimulus is a non-event, as it has been anticipated. In addition, the last stimulus program was RMB4t compared to this one of only RMB1t.

2. I'm not sure how you can buy HK shreas from Singapore. I would think that you can do it thru the Singaporean brokers eg. Phillips or UOBKH. I buy mine directly in HK.

3. You cannot trade Chinese Shares listed in China. You can only trade Chinese shares listed in HK. You can try http://www.hkse.com.hk or http://www.aastocks.com for quotes and other info.

4. I buy my A50 listed in HK. In Singapore, I think UOB has an ETF that is similar to the A50. I dont follow that ETF listed in Spore.

5. You can read more about Ajisen in it's own thread, under the HK stock section of this forum.
Here's the link:- viewtopic.php?f=38&t=74&start=70. If you want to follow me, it will be at your own risk as I'm a trader not a long term investor.


Take care,
Winston
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