Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:55 am

TOL as of Jul 26, 2015

emotions.jpg


Trading Against Your Emotion

The markets have been weak over the past few days. Risk-Off seems to be mantra now.

Most of my friends are also scared stiff and wants to be 80% in Cash.

The "experts" are also now talking about the next crash, probably from a Liquidity Crisis ( Bond or ETF ).

But before you frighten yourself, you may want to first consider the track record of the "experts" on Greece and China:-

1. Greece: Didn't these 'experts" say that Greece will cause an European Contagion ? So where are we now ? Has the whole world really collapsed ? How can a country of only 11m people, with 2% of the GDP of Europe and a US$360b debt, bring down the whole financial system ?

2. China: Didn't the "experts" said that the China crash will also trigger the next global depression ? So where are we now ? And some "experts" even compared the charts of the Great Depression vs the current Chinese Crash. While you are frightening yourself, the Chinese market has already rebounded 18%. Do you really want to bet against the determination of the Chinese authorities ?

So could the next crash then really comes from a Liquidity Crunch ? There were already some rumblings of it in the Bond Markets not too long ago but they have since stabilized. As for the ETF, there has been no sign at all yet.

My response is why frighten yourself when there is no "Clear and Present" danger ? Why bother listening to these "experts' when their track record is so very wrong ?

As for myself, I trust only the emotions of my friends as well as my own emotions. When my friends are very frightened and in turn are also making me feel very frightened, then it's time to trade against my own emotions.

At this point in time, most of my friends are quite frightened and they are also starting to make me feel very frightened too.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$48 from US$51 from US$53
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
i. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
j. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1099 from USUS$1132 from US$1162. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$989 from US$993 from US$1034.

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.71 from US$15 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.39 from US$2.50 from US$2.54

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2080 from 2127 from 2077. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25129 from 25415 from 24901. Traded AAC Tech. Sold Nirvana

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 4071 from 3957 from 3878; Support at 3400 ? No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3353 from 3353 from 3280. Traded JMH

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20545 from 20651 from 19780. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1721 from 1727 from 1716. Bought MAA. Sold 1/2 Datasonic

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded 23103 HSI Put


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 124 from 124 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.78 from 2.78 from 2.81. Vested in MYR & SGD.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.74 from 0.74 from 0.75. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.00 from 1.01 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.78 from 2.81 from 2.82. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.10 from 1.08 from 1.12. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7516 from 7.7505 from 7.7529. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 97.24 from 97.96 from 96.03


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - How much cash have you really raised over the past 2 weeks ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.26% from 2.35% from 2.40%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. NZ reduced interest rate by 25 bps to 3%
b. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
c. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 51% (Long 61%; Short 10%) from 55% from 51%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 02, 2015 9:53 am

TOL as of Aug 02, 2015

august.png


New Month of August

It's a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, I'm expecting the US markets to spike upwards sometime next week. Thereafter, I'm not so sure that the US markets can continue to be strong in view of the poor sentiments.

However, that does not mean that the US markets would crash either as buybacks are still very strong.

Very likely, it would be directionless market with a lot of traders deciding that it would be a good time to take a summer break.

As for myself, I've also been cutting back on my trading and have been taking mini trading breaks along the way, On Friday, I even went for 18 holes of golf instead of my usual trip to the driving range.

By the way, most of my friends are still very afraid of a "Black Swan" appearing. However, I cant see anything around, that would be able to strike some fear in my heart yet.

But was I able to see the 25% plunge on the Dow Jones in 1987 ? Or the Nikkei Bust, AFC, Dot-Com Bust, 9-11 or the 2007 Financial Tsunami ?

And if I was not able to see those past "Black Swans", then why I'm sure that I would be able to see the next "Black Swan" ?


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$47 from US$48 from US$51
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
i. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
j. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1095 from US$1099 from USUS$1132. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$984 from US$989 from US$993

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.76 from US$14.71 from US$15. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.35 from US$2.39 from US$2.50

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 2104 from 2080 from 2127. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24636 from 25129 from 25415. Traded China Merchant Bank, Nirvana and AviChina

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3664 from 4071 from 3957; Support at 3400 ? No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3202 from 3353 from 3353. Bought Noble

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 20585 from 20545 from 20651. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1723 from 1721 from 1727. Traded Datasonic

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 124 from 124 from 124. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.79 from 2.78 from 2.78. Vested in both MYR & SGD.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.73 from 0.74 from 0.74. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.00 from 1.00 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.79 from 2.78 from 2.81. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.10 from 1.10 from 1.08. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7501 from 7.7516 from 7.7505. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 97.19 from 97.24 from 97.96


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Can you really stomach a 10% drop in your portfolio ? What about a 25% drop ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.18% from 2.26% from 2.35%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Brazil increased interest rates by 50 bps to 14.25%

b. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

c. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. Net Exposure to Equities: Flat. 51% (Long 62%; Short 11%) from 51% from 55%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 09, 2015 6:44 am

TOL as of Aug 09, 2015

be-careful.jpg


Time to be cautious ?

The US Earnings Season is winding down so there's one less catalyst for US Stocks to move higher. However, that also means that the US companies can now resume their Buy-Backs.

So which way would the US markets be heading then ? My gut feel is that it's still a Trading Market but with a downward bias now, in view of the situation in China.

Therefore, I will still continue to buy on any sharp correction and sell into the technical rebound. However, I would probably be less adventurous now.

In the past, I may start buying without a proper set-up or on questionable valuation. But now, I would need to go through my complete checklist first before i pull the trigger. As for the selling, I'm now putting in Trailing Stop Losses.

Anyway, it's been a while since we looked at the big picture so let's analyze that:-

1. Interest rates
I still feel that interest rates would continue to be low for the next year even-though there could be a rate hike in September and possibly, December. I still think that the two rate hikes of 25bps is within expectation and should not affect the markets too much.

2. Europe
I still think that Greece is a non-event and it should not morph into a European Contagion.

3. Global Economy
The US economy should be improving slowly while things would continue to be slow in Europe, Japan and China.

4. Commodities
I cant see how Commodity can rise on such poor global economic conditions.

5. USD
If not the USD, then what ? I cant see how the USD can drop in the short term unless the Russians and the Chinese simultaneously sell their USD holdings, which is highly unlikely.

6. Chinese Markets
The Chinese should have enough fire-power to arrest the slide in their market for the time being. Therefore, I would be buying the Chinese market whenever there's a sharp plunge.

At the same time, the above analysis does not cover everything. What happens if there's a Flash Crash ? Or what happens if there's a big natural disaster ? Or what happens if war breaks out in Ukraine or the Spratly's ? Or what happens if the Ebola or MERS morph into something more dangerous ? And so on ...

In view of the above, I think that it does not hurt to be a bit cautious and to "sit closer to the Emergency Exit". Sentiment is a bit poor and everyone is a bit edgy. So it will not take much for someone to scream "Fire" and everyone would be running to the Emergency Exit at the same time. Whether you can survive the stampede or not, depends on how alert you are as well as how close you are to the Emergency Exit ...


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$44 from US$47 from US$48
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
i. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
j. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1093 from US$1095 from US$1099. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$963 from US$984 from US$989

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.78 from US$14.76 from US$14.71. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.33 from US$2.35 from US$2.39

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2078 from 2104 from 2080. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24552 from 24636 from 25129. Bought Wasion and ICBC. Traded Mengniu, Wasion, Nirvana and AviChina

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3744 from 3664 from 4071; Support at 3400 ? Traded Call China50-C4 on KLSE

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3197 from 3202 from 3353. Bought JMH, Dairy Farm and Fraser Commercial. Sold Noble

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 20725 from 20585 from 20545. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1683 from 1723 from 1721. Bought MAA and Datasonic

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Sold Put FBMKLCI-HK on KLSE


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 124 from 124 from 124. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested in JPY

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.83 from 2.79 from 2.78. Vested in both MYR & SGD.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.74 from 0.73 from 0.74. Vested in both AUD and USD

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.03 from 1.00 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.91 from 2.79 from 2.78. Vested in both AUD and MYR. Will sell AUD for MYR when it reaches MYR 3.10

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.10 from 1.10 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7523 from 7.7501 from 7.7516. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in HKD and USD

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 97.56 from 97.19 from 97.24


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Can you really stomach a 10% drop in your portfolio ? What about a 25% drop ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.16% from 2.18% from 2.26%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 59% (Long 70%; Short 11%) from 51% from 51%. Exposure to Equities creeping up again. Need to reduce it to a more comfortable level of about 45%.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:47 am

TOL as of Aug 16, 2015

Sell Sell.jpg


Time to Sell ?

It has been a weak week and I'm starting to think that maybe it's time to raise more cash.

Sentiment is quite poor and you can see the profit-taking whenever a counter spikes up.

There's also no shortage of negative news eg. Yuan Devaluation, Poor Earnings, Weak Commodity Prices, Slow Economic Growth, Weak Currencies etc.

Therefore, I'm starting to think that maybe it's time to reduce my exposure to Equities or if I do want to really keep my shares, then I will need to hedge my exposure, by buying more Put Warrants or Inverse ETFs.

I also cannot see any positive catalyst on the horizon other than the postponement of the September US Rate Hike. At the same time, a few of the current issues can easily explode including Greece, China, Ukraine, Spratly's and Russia.

I need to remind myself that being cautious is not enough. I need to take some action to manage my exposure to Equities accordingly.


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$42 from US$44 from US$47
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
i. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
j. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1113 from US$1093 from US$1095. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$993 from US$963 from US$984

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.22 from US$14.78 from US$14.76. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.34 from US$2.33 from US$2.35

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 2092 from 2078 from 2104. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23999 from 24552 from 24636. Traded Wasion, ICBC, Air China, China Eastern Airline and China Merchant Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3965 from 3744 from 3664; Support at 3400 ? No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3114 from 3197 from 3202. Traded JMH and Noble

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20519 from 20725 from 20585. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1597 from 1683 from 1723. No Trade. Menang would be reporting it's numbers in the next few weeks. MAA has been buying back it's shares.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded 64553 Bull Call in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 124 from 124 from 124. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested in JPY

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.89 from 2.83 from 2.79. Vested in both MYR

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.74 from 0.74 from 0.73. Vested in both AUD and USD

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.04 from 1.03 from 1.00. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.00 from 2.91 from 2.79. Vested in both AUD and MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.11 from 1.10 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7560 from 7.7523 from 7.7501. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 96.59 from 97.56 from 97.19


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Need to buy more Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.20% from 2.16% from 2.18%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. Net Exposure to Equities: Lower. 57% (Long 68%; Short 11%) from 58% from 51%. Need to reduce this to about 35%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:31 am

TOL as of Aug 23, 2015

big one.jpg


Is this the big one ?

The Dow dropped 530 points on Friday while the markets from HK, China to Europe, were also correcting.

So is this the big crash that everyone is waiting for?

Intuitively, I dont think so. Not yet, anyway.

To put things in perspective, the 530 points is only 3% of the index while it has risen about 15% in the past year.

In addition, markets normally crash on Euphoria not Fear, as in the case of China, Dot-Com, Nikkei etc. And there's only Fear out there, not Euphoria.

Anyway, it's timely to remind myself not to be caught up in the pessimism but to also think of the various tailwinds:-
1. Low Interest Rates
2. Ample Cash in US Corporations (US$2t); Buybacks after US Earnings season
3. Plenty of Cash in Short-term Bonds
4. Short-Covering
5. QE - Europe, Japan & China
6. Low Oil Prices resulting in lower cost of doing business
7. Presidential Cycle although the incumbent is not running again


By the way, the following are my current thoughts on the various markets:-

1. China - probably hitting support now at 3500. Anyway, I would not want to be betting against the Chinese Government in a closed market. Bought some A50 ETF (2823) in HK.

2. HK - if China is bottoming out, HK (which is cheaper) will probably be reaching support soon. Would the current HK earnings season, be the catalyst to drive things higher ?

3. Singapore - will probably sell some Singapore equities when it bounce up before the general election

4. Malaysia - reaching support? It was flat on Friday while every other Asian market was down.

5. US - will buy VXX or SDS on any rebound. The Dow has dropped about a 1000 times this week. Is that a bit overdone ? And what would happen if they decide in Jackson Hole next week that they would not be increasing interest rates in Sept ?


Since there's a fire sale now, It's time to clean up my Watch-List and to make a list of 'World Dominators" to buy. They would be the "best of the best" visionary companies that could rise 100x times over the next 10 years.

It's also timely to remind myself of a saying by Peter Lynch that "there's a 10% correction every two years and a 25% crash every 4 years, so make good use of it".

Finally, I need to also buy more Put Warrants and Inverse ETFs, to hedge my existing position as I dont think it's the right time to sell at this point in time. T


Commodities:- - Risk-off

1. Oil - Lower. US$40 from US$42 from US$44
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
i. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
j. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1160 from US$1113 from US$1093. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$1019 from US$993 from US$963

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.26 from US$15.22 from US$14.78. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.30 from US$2.34 from US$2.33

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet except for gold.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1971 from 2092 from 2078. Traded SDS (Proshares Ultrashort S&P 500 ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22408 from 23999 from 24552. Bought AviChina; Traded Nirvana

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3507 from 3965 from 3744; Support at 3400? Bought 2823 A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2971 from 3114 from 3197. Sold Fraser Commercial and 1/2 JMH

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19435 from 20519 from 20725. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1575 from 1597 from 1683. Sold 1/4 Datasonic

7. Warrants - No Trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 122 from 124 from 124. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested in JPY

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.98 from 2.89 from 2.83. Vested in MYR

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.73 from 0.74 from 0.74. Vested in both AUD and USD

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.03 from 1.04 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.06 from 3.00 from 2.91. Vested in both AUD and MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.14 from 1.11 from 1.10. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7509 from 7.7560 from 7.7523. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.80 from 96.59 from 97.56


Others

1. Sentiment - Anxiety to Denial ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global Diversification
b. Asset Class Diversification
c. Diversity of Industry & Company Exposure
d. Currency Hedging
e. Tactical Asset Allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.04% from 2.20% from 2.16%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 53% (Long 66%; Short 13%) from 57% from 58%. Need to reduce this to about 40%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Aug 30, 2015 11:23 am

TOL as of Aug 30, 2015

Sept.jpg


New Month of September

It will be September soon and that means that new money from the new month, would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, I'm expecting the markets to have one strong spike in the first week of September.

Thereafter, things may be weak until about the third week of September, where there could be some Window Dressing activities.

Anyway, there's now a technical rebound and it may be time to sell into the rally (if you have been smart enough to buy at the bottom).

The 50% retracement area is normally a good time to sell, if you believe that the volatility and outflows will continue for a while more.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$45 from US$40 from US$42
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
i. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
j. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1133 from US$1160 from US$1113. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Flat. US$1018 from US$1019 from US$993

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.56 from US$15.26 from US$15.22. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.34 from US$2.30 from US$2.34

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 1989 from 1971 from 2092. Bought SDS (Proshares Ultrashort S&P 500 ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21612 from 22408 from 23999. Traded CM Bank, Conch Ventures, Great Wall Motor, BBMG, CGN, AviChina, Huabao, CCC, Wasion, Legend, CRRC, Shimao, CKP, Cinda and Nirvana

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3232 from 3507 from 3965; Sold A50 ETF 2822 & 2823

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2956 from 2971 from 3114. Sold JMH & DBXT S&P Short ETF

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19136 from 19435 from 20519. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1613 from 1575 from 1597. Bought FBMKLCI-HG Put Warrants

7. Warrants - Traded 67027, 60239, 60023, 61205, 24720 and 60476 in HK



Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 122 from 122 from 124. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested in JPY

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.96 from 2.98 from 2.89. Vested in MYR.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.72 from 0.73 from 0.74. Vested in both AUD and USD

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.01 from 1.03 from 1.04. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.99 from 3.06 from 3.00. Vested in both AUD and MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.12 from 1.14 from 1.11. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7516 from 7.7509 from 7.7560. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 96.15 from 94.80 from 96.59


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global diversification
b. Asset Class diversification
c. Diversity of industry & company exposure
d. Currency hedging
e. Tactical asset allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ? Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase.
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.18% from 2.04% from 2.20%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%; Looks like there's also outflow from the bonds

7. Interest Rates:
a. China cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.6%
b. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
c. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:16 pm

TOL as of Sep 06, 2015

Buy, Sell or Hold ?

Buy Sell.jpg


As expected, the US markets spiked from the new money from the new month of September.

So where do we go from here ?

IMHO, I think the market would be relatively weak until around Sept 16. Thereafter, I'm expecting the US Feds to announce that they would not be raising interest rates. Around Sept 16th, I'm also expecting a coordinated QE announcement with the ECB, BoJ and the PBOC.

The above would certainly be good for the markets. In addition, it would also boost Window Dressing activities all the way to September 30th.

Therefore, I would need to sell my Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants by September 16th.

If the rally is very strong, I may also sell some of my shares, with the intention of buying them back later at a lower price.

But what if I'm wrong and they actually raise interest rates in September? How would I be able to protect myself then?

Anyway, my views on the various issues have not really changed:-
1. Slow global growth for at least one year
2. Low interest rates for at least one year
3. Low commodity prices for at least one year
4. High USD for at least one year although the EUR and JPY have been strengthening due to carry-trades
5. China: Stable property prices, slowing economy, lower earnings, weaker RMB, strong government support for the stock-market
6. HK: Stable property prices, rental for commercial properties dropping, slowing economy, lower earnings, HKD too strong, HSI support @ 20,000
7. Macau: weak revenue from both VIP & mass-market for at least another year
8. Singapore: Lower property prices, slowing economy, lower earnings, SGD too strong; Not expecting the PAP to lose in the GE; weak stock market
9. Malaysia: Lower property prices, slowing economy, lower earnings, weak MYR, weak KLCI until pre-GE
10. Europe: weak economies, lower earnings, stable EUR, rising stock-market due to QE
11. US: stable property prices, slow growth, weak earnings, strong USD, high stock market valuation

In view of the above, I'm reminding myself to:-
1. raise more cash; Also keep more cash at home too
2. buy Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants whenever there's a spike in the market
3. avoid buying any dip unless it's a very sharp correction
4. sell any shares whenever it spikes up sharply, with the intention of buying it back later at a lower price
5. sell any small companies in case there's a recession on the horizon
6. convert some of my SGD into another currency. What other currency besides the USD ? GBP ?


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$46 from US$45 from US$40
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1122 from US$1133 from US$1160. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$993 from US$1018 from US$1019

4. Silver - Lower. US$14.56 from US$15.26 from US$15.22. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.31 from US$2.55 from US$2.34

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1921 from 1989 from 1971. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20841 from 21612 from 22408. Traded Conch Ventures, Great Wall Motor, CGN, AviChina, Huabao, Wasion, Legend, CRRC, Shimao, Cinda and Nirvana

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3160 from 3232 from 3507; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2864 from 2956 from 2971. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17792 from 19136 from 19435. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1589 from 1613 from 1575. Sold FBMKLCI-HG Put Warrants. May need to buy another Put Warrant before the Sep 16th rally

7. Warrants - Traded 61324 and 63220 in HK



Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 122 from 122. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested in JPY

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.03 from 2.96 from 2.98. Vested in MYR.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.69 from 0.72 from 0.73. Vested in both AUD and USD

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 0.98 from 1.01 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested in AUD. Am swapping my SGD for AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.98 from 2.99 from 3.06. Am thinking of converting my AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.11 from 1.12 from 1.14. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7501 from 7.7516 from 7.7509. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 96.22 from 96.15 from 94.80


Others

1. Sentiment - Anxiety to Denial ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global diversification
b. Asset Class diversification
c. Diversity of industry & company exposure
d. Currency hedging
e. Tactical asset allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ? Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase.
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - still strong

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.12% from 2.18% from 2.04%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 13, 2015 7:26 am

TOL as of Sep 13, 2015

Yellen.jpg


Feds Watching

The whole world is currently watching the Feds, on whether they would be hiking interest rates next week.

And if they do, will it be really the end of the world especially for the Emerging Markets ?

And if they don't, will it be really a tailwind for the markets, especially when they have risen by so much this week ?

IMHO, I think that this Fed Watching is a bit ridiculous and quite a waste of my time.

How can a 0.25% change in interest rates, really affect things especially when interest rates will continue to be very low for the forseeable future ?

Anyway, since there's a lot of lemmings running around (with weapons of mass destruction), it does not hurt for me to raise some cash or to hedge my portfolio with some Inverse ETFs or Put Warrants.

In addition, if there are any counters in my portfolio that has appreciate >7% in a day, I will probably not hesitate to sell it with the intention of buying it back later, at a lower price.

The problem with the above strategy is, "What would you do if it continues to rise parabolically after you have sold it ?". Would you then try to buy it back at a higher price or would you let it go ? Hence, it's very important for me to understand the difference between Price and Value of my stocks at anytime and not be caught up in the day-to-day volatility of the markets.

For next week, my objective is to survive the volatility from the Fed's announcement. Thereafter, I will probably increase my exposure to Equities before the 3Q Window Dressing season. After that, I will probably sell some of my Equities during the the spike in early October from the new money flowing in from the new month of October.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$45 from US$46 from US$45
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1108 from US$1122 from US$1133. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$972 from US$993 from US$1018

4. Silver - Higher. US$14.58 from US$14.56 from US$15.26. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.45 from US$2.31 from US$2.55

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1961 from 1921 from 1989. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21504 from 20841 from 21612. Traded Nirvana and Legend. Sold BBMG, CCC, Great Wall Motor, CGN, AviChina, Huabao, Wasion, CRRC, Shimao and Cinda

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3200 from 3160 from 3232; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2888 from 2864 from 2956. Bought back JMH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 18264 from 17792 from 19136. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1604 from 1589 from 1613. Sold 1/3 Datasonic. May need to buy Put Warrant before the Sep 16th rally

7. Warrants - Traded 61324 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 121 from 119 from 122. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested in JPY

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 3.05 to 3.03 from 2.96. Vested in MYR.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.71 from 0.69 from 0.72. Vested in both AUD and USD

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.00 from 0.98 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested in AUD. Am thinking of swapping my SGD for AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.05 from 2.98 from 2.99. Am thinking of converting my AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.13 from 1.11 from 1.12. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7521 from 7.7501 from 7.7516. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 95.18 from 96.22 from 96.15


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global diversification
b. Asset Class diversification
c. Diversity of industry & company exposure
d. Currency hedging
e. Tactical asset allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.19% from 2.12% from 2.18%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 bps to 2.75%
b. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
c. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 20, 2015 9:51 am

TOL as of Sep 20, 2015

Window Dressing.jpg


3Q Window Dressing

We are now touching the 3Q US Window Dressing season, so there should be some buying in the US markets next week.

However, the poorly performing US shares would also be sold around this time, to generate tax-losses, that can be off-setted against the realized capital gains of the good performers.

Therefore, it's likely that the better performing US shares would be doing better. And the weaker US counters would be doing worse.

In summary, the following are my thoughts on the US markets:-
1. there should be some Window Dressing activities until Sep 30
2. there should be some tax-loss selling starting not to Dec 31
3. there should be one spike upwards in the first week of October, from the new money arriving in the new month of October
4. thereafter, the US markets would probably be weak for the rest of October until the first week of November

However, it could be a different story for the HK market:-
1. support is currently at around 20,500
2. some of the counters have already lost around 35% over the past few months and they could rise due to bargain hunting and short-covering.
3. HK would still be affected by the market direction in China, which I think is also touching support, especially with the help of the Chinese government

As I have sold some shares over the past few days when the HK market spiked upwards, I think that it may be time to use the weakness next week, to buy them back.


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Flat. US$45 from US$45 from US$46
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 96.5m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 19.55m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
i. US Oil Capex: US$1t
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1139 from US$1108 from US$1122. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Higher. US$982 from US$972 from US$993

4. Silver - Higher. US$15.15 from US$14.58 from US$14.56. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.38 from US$2.45 from US$2.31

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1958 from 1961 from 1921. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21920 from 21504 from 20841. Bought Nirvana. Traded ICBC, Cinda, CGN, Avi China and CRRC. Sold Legend and Conch Ventures

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3098 from 3200 from 3160; No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2880 from 2888 from 2864. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 18070 from 18264 from 17792. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1669 from 1604 from 1589. Bought Datasonic.

7. Warrants - Traded 68249 Bull Call in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 120 from 121 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested in JPY

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 3.02 from 3.05 to 3.03. Vested in MYR.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.72 from 0.71 from 0.69. Vested in both AUD and USD

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.01 from 1.00 from 0.98. The 52 week range is 0.99 to 1.36. Vested in AUD. Am thinking of swapping my SGD for AUD.

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.04 from 3.05 from 2.98. Am thinking of converting my AUD to MYR

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.13 from 1.13 from 1.11. Not vested in EUR

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7501 from 7.7521 from 7.7501. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested in both HKD and USD. Will they be re-pegging the HKD at a lower rate to the USD ?

8. Dollar Index - USD Flat. 95.15 from 95.18 from 96.22


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused ?

2. Headwinds - Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; RMB 4t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); China's Corporate Debt (US$16t);

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Global diversification
b. Asset Class diversification
c. Diversity of industry & company exposure
d. Currency hedging
e. Tactical asset allocation
f . Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - Savills said that there were +21,000 luxury condos priced above RM800 per sq ft in KL as of end-2014, representing a 21% yoy increase. Unsold properties +14% yoy
c. China - Downpayment for 2nd Home reduced to 20% from 30%; Rules relaxed for foreigners
d. HK - Buyers focusing on tiny new flats due to steep discounts, financing to 95% and potential yield of about 3.8%.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.13% from 2.19% from 2.12%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby eauyong » Sun Sep 20, 2015 11:09 pm

BDIY jumped 18% in two days last week. Don't miss out tomorrow.
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