Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - May 15)

Postby winston » Sun May 17, 2015 6:50 am

TOL as of May 17, 2015

summer doldrums.jpg


Summer Doldrums ?

It's normally a traditional weak period for the markets during summer. And we will be touching Summer soon with the coming US Memorial Day weekend.

So is it time to sell in view of the current volatility in the bond markets ?

The current cons for Equities investing include high US valuation, weak corporate revenue growth, high margin financing level, potential Grexit, global economic slowdown and high government debts.

The current pros for Equities investing include continued low interest rates, various global QE programs, declining USD, low raw material cost, corporate buybacks and high cash level on the sidelines.

In view of the above, I still feel that there would not be any prolonged correction in the markets and any dips would still be a buying opportunity.

At the same time, I should not be too complacent as a Black Swan has not appeared in a while and they have a habit of appearing when everyone is sleepy and complacent.

Anyway, I do have a healthy cash level to take advantage of any dip. However, if there's a prolonged sharp downturn, a 32% exposure to equities would still be quite painful although it wont be able to wipe me out unless I continue to average down in a deep crash.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$60 from US$59 from US$59
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
I'm expecting oil to remain low for the foreseeable future and I need to remind myself to stay away from the Oil Services companies for the time being

2. Gold - Higher. US$1223 from US$1187 from US$1177. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Higher. $1168 from $1141 from $1131.

4. Silver - Higher. US$18 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.93 from US$2.91 from US$2.94

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2123 from 2118 from 2108. Bought Dupont.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 27822 from 27577 from 28133. Sold Wasion and 1/2 BBMG..

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 4309 from 4206 from 4442. Decision on China's MSCI inclusion on June 9

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3463 from 3452 from 3487. Bought Suntec Reit

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19733 from 19379 from 19532

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1812 from 1808 from 1818. Traded MAA. Menang's Quarterly Result will be out within 2 weeks

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.70 from 2.70 from 2.70. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.80 from 0.79 from 0.79. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.06 from 1.05 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.04; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.86 from 2.85 from 2.82. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.14 from 1.12 from 1.12. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7510 from 7.7535 from 7.7523. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 93.23 from 94.79 from 95.21


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts (US$0.5t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - How do you manage Greed, Fear, Arrogance & Ignorance ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.14% from 2.15% from 2.11%. High 2.32%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 26% (Long 32%; Short 6%) from 26% from 18%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun May 24, 2015 7:17 am

TOL as of May 24, 2015

Summer.png


Summer Rambling

It's officially summer in the US and there would be a lot of summer driving in the US from now on. So would that lead to higher oil prices soon ? Or is the oil glut so big, that it would take some time to work through the inventories? In addition, the global economy is also quite weak so there would be lesser demand for oil in the medium term.

Anyway, the stock markets are still strong as there's still a perception that the Central Bankers can continue to print money and keep interest rates low. However, the Central Bankers seems to have gone really wild this time. Maybe they do know that their economies are very weak and are trying to pre-empt things. And in the case of China, the Chinese governments do owned a lot of SOEs, so there's also a vested interest to pump prices up.

Even the "flash crash' in the bonds market recently, has not been able to affect the stock markets. So what could really bring the markets down then ?

Would a few more Hanergys and Goldins be able to instill some fear into the momentum players ? Or a catastrophic event like a 7.8 earthquake in California or Japan instead of in Nepal? How about war in Ukraine? Or a crash in the USD from the coordinated selling by the Russians and Chinese, leading to substantially higher US interest rates ? Or perhaps the Grexit leading to substantially higher interest rates in Europe ? Or just an old-fashioned crash in Shanghai because it has gone up so much ?

And would you be smart enough to run for the exit when the market does crash? Or would you be betting that it's a buying opportunity and be averaging down as the market plunges ?


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$60 from US$60 from US$59
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels (106 days)
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels (141 days)
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies

2. Gold - Lower. US$1205 from US$1223 from US$1187 from US$1177. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - . Lower. $1147 from $1168 from $1141

4. Silver - Lower. US$17 from US$18 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.80 from US$2.93 from US$2.91

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2126 from 2123 from 2118. Added Cameco. Traded Baozhun. Sold Dupont.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 27822 from 27577 from 28133. Sold ICBC and China Merchants Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 4309 from 4206 from 4442. Sold A50 2823. June 9 - Decision on China's MSCI inclusion

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3463 from 3452 from 3487. Sold Suntec Reit

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19733 from 19379 from 19532

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1812 from 1808 from 1818. Traded Menang. Bought Wintoni

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade

8. IPO: Applied for Huatai Securities in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 122 from 119 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.70 from 2.70 from 2.70. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.78 from 0.80 from 0.79. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.05 from 1.06 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.04; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.82 from 2.86 from 2.85. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.10 from 1.14 from 1.12. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7518 from 7.7510 from 7.7535. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 96.14 from 93.23 from 94.79


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts (US$0.5t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - How do you manage Greed, Fear, Arrogance & Ignorance ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - New home prices fell for the eighth consecutive month in April from a year earlier. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities dropped 6.1 percent last month from a year ago, the same rate of decline as in March. Average 1% monthly rise in the first tier and 0.1% fall and 0.3% fall in the second and third tiers. Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.21% from 2.14% from 2.15%. High 2.32%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Pakistan cuts discount rates by 1% to 7%
b. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 26% (Long 32%; Short 6%) from 26% from 26%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun May 31, 2015 8:34 am

TOL as of May 31, 2015

june.jpg


Happy June !

It's a new month and that means that new money will be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, I'm expecting one more spike up in the US markets during the first week of June. After that spike, I'm thinking of buying some VXX, SH, SDS or DBXT Short S&P, to hedge my long positions.

However, the action this week in Shanghai and HK is a bit worrisome. Maybe they are now aware that the markets can go both ways. Anyway, I still think that it's a Trading Market, so I did go shopping after the plunge in SH and HK.

The following are some important dates over the next few weeks:-
1. June 5: Grexit ?
2. June 9: MSCI china Inclusion ?
3. End June: Dividends of Chinese banks
4. June 30: 2Q Window Dressing

We just had our high school reunion last night and I have not seen some of my classmates for more than 35 years. We have managed to locate one another through our smart-phones and we now can chat with each other again. Going forward, I cant see how we can now live without our Smart-Phones, Whatsapp, Wechat, Face-Book etc. and I should think more about investing in those areas.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$60 from US$60 from US$60
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. Oil inventories: 4th weekly decline, falling by another 2.8 million barrels. The US has now burned through 10m barrels of oil from storage in a month, indicating that the supply glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies

2. Gold - Lower. US$1190 from US$1205 from US$1223. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - . Lower. $1111 from $1147 from $1168

4. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$18. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.74 from US$2.80 from US$2.93

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2107 from 2126 from 2123. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 27424 from 27822 from 27577. Bought China Merchants Bank, CCB, China Communications Construction and Cinda. Traded BOC & BBMG

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 4612 from 4309 from 4206; June 9 - Decision on China's MSCI inclusion; Bought A50 2823

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3392 from 3463 from 3452. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 20563 from 19733 from 19379. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1748 from 1812 from 1808. Traded MAA. Sold Wintoni

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded Bull Calls 64579 in HK

8. IPO: Granted shares in Huatai Securities. Trading on Monday, June 1st. Up 12% in grey market


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 124 from 122 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 124. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.71 from 2.70 from 2.70. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.76 from 0.78 from 0.80. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.03 from 1.05 from 1.06. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.80 from 2.82 from 2.86. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.14. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7535 from 7.7518 from 7.7510. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 96.89 from 96.14 from 93.23


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$300b); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts (US$0.5t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - How's your Trailing Stop Loss, Position Sizing and Cash Level ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - New home prices fell for the eighth consecutive month in April. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities dropped 6.1 percent last month from a year ago. Average 1% monthly rise in the first tier and 0.1% fall and 0.3% fall in the second and third tiers. Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.12% from 2.21% from 2.14%. High 2.32%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 24% (Long 30%; Short 6%) from 26% from 26%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 07, 2015 7:34 am

TOL as of Jun 07, 2015

1H Window Dressing ?

Window Dressing.jpg


It's Window Dressing time soon and I'm expecting the markets to be relatively strong till June 30. Therefore, I've gone shopping again this week and have boosted my exposure to Equities, despite the volatility in the bond and share markets.

Till date, we still have not seen any spike in the US market from the new money entering the market, from the new month of June. That may mean that the fund managers are keeping some bullets to be used for Window Dressing purposes later.

As for Shanghai, it has been very strong and during any dips, the buying has been fast and furious. That tells me that there's still plenty of liquidity in Shanghai and any dips in Shanghai must still be bought.

For HK, it will continue to follow the actions in Shanghai. However, the HK market may be be temporarily manipulated to knock out the Bull Calls and Bear Puts warrants.

I'm feeling a bit confident so it's timely to remind myself that "whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident".

By the way, the actions in the bond markets are a bit worrisome and interest rates has been spiking up. However, interest rates are still at a historically low level and should there be any correction in the Equities market, money would very quickly flow in to buy. There's no other game in town.

Until June 30, I would probably continue to buy on any dips. I may also take any windfall profits but I would probably try to hold on as long as possible unless the spike is too great to resist.

After June 30, I'm not too sure that things would continue to be that great. Therefore, the time to sell would probably be in late June and especially during any strong spike.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$59 from US$60 from US$60
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1172 from US$1190 from US$1205. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - . Lower. $1097 from $1111 from $1147

4. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.70 from US$2.74 from US$2.80

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2093 from 2107 from 2126. Bought VXX and HACK

2. HK Equities - Lower. 27260 from 27424 from 27822. Bought China Communications Construction, CK Properties, Air China, Conch Venture, Great Wall Motors, Air China, Bocom and Nirvana. Sold China Merchants Bank and CCB.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 5023 from 4612 from 4309; June 9 - Decision on China's MSCI inclusion; Sold A50 2823

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3334 from 3392 from 3463. Bought Fraser Centrepoint, Silverlake Axis, Suntec Reit and City Development

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20461 from 20563 from 19733. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1745 from 1748 from 1812. Bought MAA, FIMA and DGB Asia. Traded Wintoni

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded Bear Put 66097 in HK

8. IPO: Sold Huatai Securities. Applied for 3SBio


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 126 from 124 from 122. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.77 from 2.71 from 2.70. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.76 from 0.76 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.04 from 1.03 from 1.05. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.87 from 2.80 from 2.82. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.11 from 1.09 from 1.10. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7527 from 7.7535 from 7.7518. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 96.35 from 96.89 from 96.14


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$0.3t); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts (US$0.5t); US Student Debts (US$1.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - "Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident"

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.41% from 2.12% from 2.21%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. India cut interest rates by 25 bps to 7.25%
b. Brazil increased interest rates by 50 bps to 13.75%
c. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 34% (Long 44%; Short 7%) from 24% from 26%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 14, 2015 6:39 am

TOL as of Jun 14, 2015

Next Week 1.jpg


Next Week

Things could get a bit interesting next week.

The US Feds will be meeting and everyone will be glued to what they would be saying. As for myself, I'm not too sure what the fuss is all about, as they will probably raise interest rates this year but will try to continue to keep it low for 2016.

It's also Quadruple Witching Thursday, so there could be some volatility in the markets,

And since it's also 1H Window Dressing time, I think that the market may be quite strong next week.

However, Greece cant seemed to disappear from the headlines and could cause some problems although that probability is still very small. I cant see how can a population of only 11m people bring down the whole financial system. Anyway, the "experts' have been talking of an European Contagion for years and they have been so wrong till date.

If the markets are really strong next week, I may use the chance to reduce some of my exposure to Equities. It does not hurt to be taking some profits and raising some cash, in view of the volatility in the bond market.

However, I still think that this is still a "Trading Market" so any dips must still be bought and any spike upwards should also be sold into.

In view of the outflows from Asia and Australia, I'm also starting to think about my 'Currency Risk" Currently, I have only a 15% position in Gold, USD & HKD, while my positions in the MYR, AUD and SGD, have all been very weak against the USD.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$59 from US$60 from US$60
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1181 from US$1172 from US$1190. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$1095 from US$1097 from US$1111

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.68 from US$2.70 from US$2.74

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Flat. 2094 from 2093 from 2107. No trade.

2. HK Equities - Flat. 27281 from 27260 from 27424. Bought CRRC. Traded CK Properties, Air China, Conch Venture, China Merchants Bank; Bocom, Mengniu, BBMG, CSR Times Electric, WH Group, Shenghua and Avichina. Sold Great Wall Motors and Bank of China.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 5166 from 5023 from 4612; No trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3352 from 3334 from 3392. Traded JMH, Fraser Centrepoint, Silverlake Axis and City Development

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20407 from 20461 from 20563. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1734 from 1745 from 1748. No Trade

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded Bull Calls 69148 in HK

8. IPO: Sold 3SBIO


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 123 from 126 from 124. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.79 from 2.77 from 2.71. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.77 from 0.76 from 0.76. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.04 from 1.04 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.90 from 2.87 from 2.80. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.13 from 1.11 from 1.09. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7529 from 7.7527 from 7.7535. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.97 from 96.35 from 96.89


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$0.3t); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts (US$0.5t); US Student Debts (US$1.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - "Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident"

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.39% from 2.41% from 2.12%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Korea cut interest rates by 25 bps to 1.5%
b. NZ cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3.25%
c. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 43% (Long 51%; Short 8%) from 34% from 24%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 21, 2015 7:09 am

TOL as of Jun 21, 2015

Calm-before-the-storm.jpg


Calm before the Storm ?

It has been a relatively good week in view of the various storms on the horizon eg. Grexit, Shanghai, Yellen etc.

As for Greece, I still dont think that there would be an European Contagion. How can a country of only 11m people be able to bring down the whole financial system ? Or is it just plain ignorance on my part ?

For Shanghai, I think that it's a healthy correction and not the start of a big crash. There are also circuit breakers in China and the counters can only drop 10% a day. In addition, the authorities can easily cut back on the number of IPOs, cut RRR, announce some stimulus etc. to prop up the market. I would only start worrying when I see a "M" or 'Triple Top" forming on the charts.

As for Yellen, it's the same old story. So what if they increase interest rates twice this year ? It's still at a historically very low rate and they would be taking their time to increase interest rates over the next two years.

Anyway, it's Window Dressing time and I'm not expecting a crash next week. Thereafter, we would have new money flowing into the market, from the new month of July.
In addition, the Chinese banks would also be going ex-dividend next week so they would be quite strong too.

By the way, all of my friends are also scared stiff so that tells me that there's still a lot of Cash on the sidelines.

Finally, if the market is strong next week, I would probably be selling into the rally. And if it does dip, I may not be too aggressive this time in my buying.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$59 from US$59 from US$60
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Higher. US$1200 from US$1181 from US$1172. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$1086 from US$1095 from US$1097

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.57 from US$2.68 from US$2.70

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 2110 from 2094 from 2093. No trade.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 26761 from 27281 from 27260. Bought BoC, ICBC China Merchants Bank, Great Wall Motor and Nirvana; Traded CSR Times Electric and Avichina.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 4478 from 5166 from 5023; No trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3301 from 3352 from 3334. Bought Fraser Commercial Trust; Traded Jardine Matheson and Suntec Reit. Sold Guocoland

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20174 from 20407 from 20461. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1722 from 1734 from 1745. Traded MAA. Sold Wintoni

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade

8. IPO: Applied for Legend Holdings in HK


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 123 from 123 from 126. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.80 from 2.80 from 2.79. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.78 from 0.77 from 0.76. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.04 from 1.04 from 1.04. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.90 from 2.87 from 2.80. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.14 from 1.13 from 1.11. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7515 from 7.7529 from 7.7527. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.09 from 94.97 from 96.30


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$0.3t); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts (US$0.5t); US Student Debts (US$1.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Asset Allocation, Position Sizing, Trailing Stop Loss

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.26% from 2.39% from 2.41%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 40% (Long 48%; Short 8%) from 43% from 34%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:12 am

TOL as of Jun 28, 2015

july.jpg


New Month of July

It's going to be a new month soon and new money will again be flowing into the market.

That means that the markets should be strong at least during the first week of July. In addition, we still have two more days for 1H Window Dressing next week.

At the same time, there's Grexit and Shanghai ( the terrible twins ) to worry about.

The "experts" are now saying that Grexit is a non-issue and they will opt for the 5 months extension.

As for Shanghai, I'm expecting them to reduce the number of IPOs as well as announce some stimulus program eg. RRR cut, interest rates cut etc whenever the market is weak.

As I believed that it's still a Trading Market, I have gone shopping again this week.

At the same time, I'm reminding myself to be a bit careful as these two "terrible twins" are highly unpredictable and they can misbehave badly.


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$60 from US$59 from US$59
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1178 from US$1200 from US$1181. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$1085 from US$1086 from US$1095

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.65 from US$2.57 from US$2.68

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2101 from 2110 from 2094. Sold HACK

2. HK Equities - Lower. 26664 from 26761 from 27281. Bought CGN Power, Cinda and Hua Bao. Traded BoC, CCB, ICBC, CM Bank, Nirvana, AviChina and Lee & Man Paper

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 4193 from 4478 from 5166; Bought A50 2823

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3321 from 3301 from 3352. Bought Suntec Reit and Jardine Strategic. Sold Fraser Commercial Trust;

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 20706 from 20174 from 20407. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1710 from 1722 from 1734. Bought Datasonic; Traded MAA

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade

8. IPO: Legend Holdings will trade on Monday, June 29


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 124 from 123 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.80 from 2.80 from 2.80. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.77 from 0.78 from 0.77. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.03 from 1.04 from 1.04. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.90 from 2.90 from 2.87. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.12 from 1.14 from 1.13. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7525 from 7.7515 from 7.7529. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 95.40 from 94.09 from 94.97


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$0.34t); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); US Margin Debts (US$0.5t); US Student Debts (US$1.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Asset Allocation, Position Sizing, Trailing Stop Loss

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.47% from 2.26% from 2.39%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. China reduced interest rates by 25 bps to 4.85%
b. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 50% (Long 59%; Short 9%) from 40% from 43%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:23 am

TOL as of Jul 5, 2015

earnings.jpg


US Earnings Season .. Again

Next week, things would be quite interesting:-
1. We would know the result of the Greece Referendum
2. We would be able to see what else the desperate Chinese authorities would be doing
3. The Minutes of FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday (US time )
4. Yellen will be speaking on Friday
5. Alcoa will be reporting it's Q2 results, kicking off the US earnings season again

For #1, I still think that Greece is a non-event and it would not turn into an European Contagion. The "experts" have been talking about Spain, Portugal and Italy collapsing for 6 years already and if you have had listened to them, you would have gone bankrupt by now.

For #2, the Chinese authorities have stopped the listing of IPOs as well as set up a Stabilization Fund of around CNY120b . They are getting really desperate. And rightly so, as according to the SCMP, about 25% of the Chinese investors ( speculators ) have already lost at least 50%.

For #3 and #4, I still think that interest rates will continue to remain very low for a long time, thus providing the tailwind for Equities

For #5, US Earnings expectation are very low so it's very easy to beat expectations again. Therefore, I need to remind myself not to short the US market too aggressively over the next two weeks.

Anyway, I still think that it's a Trading Market. Therefore, any plunge should be bought into and any strong rallies should also be sold into. "Buy & Hold" would be a wrong strategy in this market unless you know something about the company that the market doesn't know.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$56 from US$60 from $59
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1168 from US$1178 from US$1200. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Flat. US$1085 from US$1085 from US$1086

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.62 from US$2.65 from US$2.57

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2077 from 2101 from 2110. Sold VXX

2. HK Equities - Lower. 26064 from 26664 from 26761. Bought WH Group. Traded Fosun, ICBC, China Merchant Bank and Nirvana

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3687 from 4193 from 4478; Support at 3400 ? MSCI inclusion in Sep ? Traded A50 2823

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3343 from 3321 from 3301. Sold Jardine Strategic

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 20540 from 20706 from 20174. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1734 from 1710 from 1722. Traded MAA and Datasonic

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Bought S&P Short ETF in SGX; Traded China50-H2 Put Warrant in KLSE. Traded 60380 HSI Bear Puts in HKSE.

8. IPO: Legend IPO was a disappointment


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 123 from 124 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.82 from 2.80 from 2.80. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.75 from 0.77 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.01 from 1.03 from 1.04. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.85 from 2.90 from 2.90. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.11 from 1.12 from 1.14. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7529 from 7.7525 from 7.7515. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 95.95 from 95.40 from 94.09


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$0.34t); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); US Margin Debts (US$0.5t); US Student Debts (US$1.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Do you have a war-chest to buy on the dip ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.38% from 2.47% from 2.26%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 51% (Long 61%; Short 10%) from 50% from 40%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 12, 2015 7:29 am

TOL as of Jul 12, 2015

Risk-Management.jpg


Risk Management

It was a very volatile week in the US, HK and China.

And I think that sentiments have now been affected.

So it's time to play a bit of defense.

And that means not taking unnecessary risks unless there's a very convincing story.

And it's also time to raise some Cash so that I will have enough bullets to buy on any sharp plunge. At this point, my Cash level is about only 50%, which is way below my comfort level of 70%.

It's also time to monitor my exposure to the various industries. At this point, I've about a 40% exposure to the Real Estate industry ( Residential, Commercial, Shares etc ). That's a bit too high and I should try to reduce it.

It's also time to monitor my Currency Risk. In my case, I have only a 20% exposure to the USD ( including HKD and Gold). It's too low and I would be in big trouble if a Black Swan does appears as in 1987, 1997 or 2007. I should try to increase my exposure here to about 40%. My assets in SGD, AUD and MYR, have all been quite weak versus the USD.

As for next week, it's still about the US earnings season, Greece and China.

For the US. I'm still expecting the high USD to affect some multinationals and it should start showing up on their earnings this quarter.

For Greece, it would continue to be a distraction although the markets were already pricing in a positive outcome to Sunday's meeting.

For China, the desperate Chinese authorities are still throwing everything at the markets. At this point in time, I wouldn't want to be betting against them. However, I need to remind myself of Sir John Templeton's words: "The four most expensive words in the English language is 'This time is different'. The Chinese authorities are not invisible although they are able to manipulate the markets in the very short term. I will short the A50 when the time is right, possibly after the 50% rebound.

I'm also expecting the Chinese economy to slowdown and I need to remind myself to be careful of any exposure to the Commodities, Consumer Discretionary and Financial sector.

I'm still expecting this to be a Trading Market and any sharp plunge should still be bought and any sharp rallies should also be sold into. However, the Variance seems to be getting wider so it may be more prudent to wait a bit longer before entering into any new positions.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$53 from US$56 from US$60
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1162 from US$1168 from US$1178. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$1034 from US$1085 from US$1085

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.54 from US$2.62 from US$2.65

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2077 from 2101 from 2110. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24901 from 26064 from 26664. Traded Tencent, HKEX, Fosun, Lenovo and Nirvana. Sold WH Group.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3878 from 3687 from 4193; Support at 3400 ? No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3280 from 3343 from 3321. Bought Fraser Centrepoint

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19780 from 20540 from 20706. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1716 from 1734 from 1710. Bought MAA and Datasonic

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Bought FBMKLCI-HK Put in KLSE; Traded 67651 Bull Call, 65097 Bull Call and 67231 Bull Call in HKSE

8. IPO: Will likely avoid all IPOs for the time being


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 123 from 123 from 124. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.81 from 2.82 from 2.80. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.74 from 0.75 from 0.77. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.01 from 1.01 from 1.03. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.82 from 2.85 from 2.90. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.12 from 1.11 from 1.12. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7529 from 7.7525 from 7.7515. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 96.03 from 95.95 from 95.40


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$0.34t); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); US Margin Debts (US$0.5t); US Student Debts (US$1.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Do you have enough cash to buy on the dip ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.40% from 2.38% from 2.47%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
b. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 51% (Long 61%; Short 10%) from 50% from 40%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Dec 15)

Postby winston » Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:59 am

TOL as of Jul 19, 2015

higher-higher.jpg


Grinding Higher

The markets grinded higher last week when the "Terrible Twins" ( Greece & China ) behaved themselves.

IMHO, Greece was always a non-event. How can a population of 11m people, with a GDP of only 2% of Europe and a debt of only US$380b, be able to bring down the financial system ? And since Greece was never a major risk, the "experts" then added in Italy, Spain and Portugal to frighten you a bit, as if they were a "Clear and Present Danger".

As for China, the "experts" are saying that it's crash can also bring down the whole global economy. I'm not sure that it's really possible but it has certainly reduced speculation in Commodities. At this point in time, since the Chinese authorities are throwing everything at the markets, it's likely to stabilize for a while.

For next week, I think that the markets would still be driven by US Earnings as long as The Terrible Twins are behaving themselves.

I would also be continuing with my defensive stance and will raise some cash as and when the opportunity presents itself.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$51 from US$53 from US$56
a. Global Oil Production vs Demand: 95m bpd vs 94m bpd
b. Global Stockpiles: 4.1b barrels ( 43 days if no more global production )
c. Global Government Stockpile: 1.4b barrels
d. US Oil Production vs Demand: 10m bpd vs 20m bpd
e. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: 690m barrels out of max 727m barrels
f. US Private Industry Reserves: 485m barrels
g. US Oil inventories: The US glut continues to ease, although at a very slow rate.
h. US Crude output jumped by 300,000 barrels per day
i. Iran will be able to supply 1m bpd; It also has 40m barrels in storage
I will continue to stay away from Oil Services companies as I dont think that this will a "V" recovery,

2. Gold - Lower. US$1132 from US$1162 from US$1168. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - Lower. US$993 from US$1034 from US$1085

4. Silver - Lower. US$15 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.50 from US$2.54 from US$2.62

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2127 from 2077 from 2101. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25415 from 24901 from 26064. Traded AviChina and Nirvana

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3957 from 3878 from 3687; Support at 3400 ? No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3353 from 3280 from 3343. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 20651 from 19780 from 20540. No Trade
,
6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1727 from 1716 from 1734. No Trade

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade

8. IPO: Will likely avoid all IPOs for the time being


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 124 from 123 from 123. The 52 week range is 76 to 126. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.78 from 2.81 from 2.82. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.74 from 0.74 from 0.75. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.01 from 1.01 from 1.01. The 52 week range is 1.02 to 1.36. Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.81 from 2.82 from 2.85. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.08 from 1.12 from 1.11. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7505 from 7.7529 from 7.7525. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 97.96 from 96.03 from 95.95


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (US$200t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$0.34t); US Fracking Debts (US$0.5t); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t); US Margin Debts (US$0.5t); US Student Debts (US$1.2t)

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Can you withstand a 25% drop in Equities with another 25% drop in your Currency exposure ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - Stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.35% from 2.40% from 2.38%. Low 1.64%; High 2.69%

7. Interest Rates:
a. Bank of Canada announced to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 0.5%
b. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates
c. I'm still expecting interest rates to remain low for quite a while more

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 55% from (Long 65%; Short 10%) from 51% from 50%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Please do use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to Useful References - Blogs, Websites & Forums, etc.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests