Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[kennynah]

Winston, very helpful as usual and with notice of caveat emptor

[newplayer]

Hi Winston

Thank you for the info.

I do not know how to log into www.hkse.hk to read the info. If it is a free website, please advise how to access it. Thanks.

[winston]

Hi newplayer,

Try this link:-

http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/invest/stock ... 602_e.html

There was a typo in the link that I gave you.

Take care,
Winston

[newplayer]

Hi Winston

Thank you very much.

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 16, 2012:-


QE3, Window Dressing and The Presidential Election




It's bright and sunny.

And the anchors are smiling on CNBC and Bloomberg.

Why would you be not smiling, when there's unlimited QE3, 3Q Window Dressing and the "invisible hands" at work ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk On

1. Oil - Higher. US$99 from US$96 last week from US$97 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ? Summer Driving is over.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1774 from US$1738 last week from US$1693 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.83 from US$3.64 last week from US$3.46 the previous week.
.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1466 from 1438 last week from 1407 the previous week. Support at 1399 ? Resistance at 1440 taken out.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20630 from 19802 last week from 19483 the previous week. Resistance @ 21,300 ? Support at 18,900. Sold Ajisen and Zhaojin Mining.

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2124 from 2128 last week from 2048 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3070 from 3012 last week from 3025 the previous week. Sold Guoco Leisure.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9159 from 8872 last week from 8840 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk On

1. JPY - Weaker. 78.40 from 78.23 last week from 78.38 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4951 from 2.5159 last week from 2.5051 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Stronger. 1.0577 from 1.0385 last week from 1.0324 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Stronger. 1.2876 from 1.2844 last week from 1.2877 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Stronger. 1.3128 from 1.2818 last week from 1.2580 the previous week.

6. HKD - Stronger. 7.7520 from 7.7560 last week from 7.7558 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Weaker. 78.85 from 80.16 last week from 81.25 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.02% from 5.06% last week from 5.85% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.79% from 5.63% last week from 6.86% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.87% from 1.67% last week from 1.55% the previous week.


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$56b from HK$52b last week from HK$40b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Bullish.

4. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

5. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

6. Risk Management - "Return of Capital" is more important than "Return On Capital"


Others

1. Properties - HK: More difficult to get 2nd Mortgages

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Why fight QE3, Window Dressing and the Presidential Cycle ?

3. Window Dressing - Two more weeks

4. US Market Direction - Higher

Market at multi-year high.

And the shorts are very loud, angry and upset on CNBC and Bloomberg.

However, it's not what you think that's important.

It's how you react when you are wrong, that's important.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Ue the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[kennynah]

long zong also 'risk on' ah chum liao liddat

[winston]

Ha Ha ... but can try to become hero and Buy USD, Short Stocks and Buy Puts

[kennynah]

Maybe a good idea. Soon, soon

[iam802]

Ha Ha ... but can try to become hero and Buy USD, Short Stocks and Buy Puts

I am actually thinking of buying USD.

[kennynah]

chum liao..we all thinking same same....