Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:51 am

TOL as of March 25, 2012:-


Last Week of Window Dressing

Image

As we head into the end of March, I need to remind myself that it's the closing price on Friday that would be recorded.

That means that I should not be really shorting the market.

Anyway, it has been a good 4 months for the Bulls.

And for the Bears, either they have been wiped out or they are still trying to sound smart ie. yapping away without putting any money where their mouth is.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$107 from US$107 last week from US$107 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Flat. US$1664 from US$1655 last week from US$1706 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Flat. US$32.11 from US$32.51 last week from US$34.24 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Copper - Copper traders extended a bearish streak into a second week, on mounting concern that demand is weakening after manufacturing contracted from China to Europe.

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2350 from 2405 last week from 2440 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2530 ?

6. HK Equities - Weaker. 20669 from 21318 last week from 21086 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? Sold CNOOC Put Warrant. Is that a "M" I see on the charts ?

7. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2990 from 3011 last week from 2963 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities - Weaker. 1397 from 1404 last week from 1371 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? How high can it go ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 10011 from 10130 last week from 9930 the previous week. Support at 9575 ? Resistance at 10130 ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 82.35 from 83.45 last week from 81.80 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17. Repatriation season coming up.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4382 from 2.4304 last week from 2.4041 the previous week. Am buying MYR on dips but I'm also concern about their upcoming GE.

13. AUD - Weaker. 1.0472 from 1.0594 last week from 1.0575 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Stronger. 1.3271 from 1.3176 last week from 1.3122 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.04% from 4.86% last week from 4.84% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Weaker. 79.29 from 79.77 last week from 80.00 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Commercial Properties - Hong Kong and Singapore commercial property rents and prices will drop by more than 15 percent in 2012, as financial services companies keep a lid on growth or shrink, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

18. Liquidity - Weaker.

a. HKD - Weaker. 7.7679 from 7.7631 last week from 7.7589 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX weaker at HK$57b from HK$64b last week from HK$79b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Weaker. And why would you want to be buying at this level ? What has changed from 4 months ago ?

20. Risk Management - Do you know where's the emergency exit ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Is this all there is ?

22. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - Besides the European IBs, who else needs to deleverage ?

24. Interest Rates / Reserve Ratios - China cut RRR for some rural bank branches of ABC

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Window Dressing - Last week to dress things up for 1Q

28. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new positions.

29. US Market Direction - Flat

All my indicators above, tells me that I should be starting to short the market.

However, it's the final week for 1Q Window Dressing and I dont want to be going against the BBs.

And if I'm on the wrong side of this trade on high leverage, a week can be like eternity in hell.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 01, 2012 12:29 pm

TOL as of April 1, 2012:-


Happy April Fool's Day !

Image

It is April Fool's Day and it's also a new quarter.

Window Dressing is over and the market has gone up for 4 months.

Will the market fool you again this new quarter ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$103 from US$107 last week from US$107 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Flat. US$1668 from US$1664 last week from US$1655 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested

3. Silver - Flat. US$32.22 from US$32.11 last week from US$32.51 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Grains - Corn inventories in the U.S., were down 8% on March 1 from a year earlier. Wheat supplies fell 16 percent.

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2263 from 2350 last week from 2405 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2460 ? Watching A50 and CSI 300.

6. HK Equities - Weaker. 20556 from 20669 last week from 21318 the previous week. Resistance at 21350 ? Support at 19000 ? Sold HSI Put Warrant. Bought SHKP.

7. Spore Equities - Stronger. 3010 from 2990 last week from 3011 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities - Stronger. 1408 from 1397 last week from 1404 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? How high can it go ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 10084 from 10011 last week from 10130 the previous week. Support at 9575 ? Resistance at 10130 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 82.87 from 82.35 last week from 83.45 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17. Repatriation season in full swing.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4362 from 2.4382 last week from 2.4304 the previous week. Bought some MYR again but I'm also concern about their upcoming GE.

13. AUD - Weaker. 1.0343 from 1.0472 last week from 1.0594 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Stronger. 1.334 from 1.3271 last week from 1.3176 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.12% from 5.04% last week from 4.86% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Weaker. 78.94 from 79.29 last week from 79.77 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Will the SHKP situation affect the HK property market ?

18. Liquidity - Mixed

a. HKD - Stronger. 7.766 from 7.7679 last week from 7.7631 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX flat at HK$57b from HK$57b last week from HK$64b last week the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Stronger. Are you afraid of being left out of the rally ?

20. Risk Management - Complacency is here to stay ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Why bother monitoring this ?

22. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - Bill Gross is also discussing this subject

24. Interest Rates - When will interest rate spike up in Japan ?

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new positions.

28. US Market Direction - Stronger

Are you afraid of being left out of the rally ?

And what has changed from 4 months ago ?

Did you managed to call the rally 4 months ago ?

If not, why do you think that you would be able to call the market this time ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 08, 2012 2:29 pm

TOL as of April 08, 2012:-


The Last Few Puffs ?

Image

The markets are weaker than expected, triggered by the FOMC minutes.

And if there is any underlying strength, the market would have bounced back immediately.

Anyway, it's a long week-end, so market participants may be afraid to buy.

Let's see whether we would get that technical rebound on Tuesday.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$103 from US$103 last week from US$107 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1629 from US$1668 last week from US$1664 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested. Indian Jewelers end 3 week strike

3. Silver - Weaker. US$31.66 from US$32.22 last week from US$32.11 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Bought Silver ETF

4. Palm Oil - Advanced to highest in 13 Months, as Soybean Supply dwindles

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2307 from 2263 last week from 2350 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2460 ? Bought A50 China ETF

6. HK Equities - Flat. 20593 from 20556 last week from 20669 the previous week. Resistance at 21350 ? Support at 19000 ? Bought Zhaojin Mining and Rexlot.

7. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2986 from 3010 last week from 2990 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities - Weaker. 1398 from 1408 last week from 1397 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 then 1440 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9689 from 10084 last week from 10011 the previous week. Support at 9575 ? Resistance at 10130 ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 81.63 from 82.87 last week from 82.35 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4328 from 2.4362 last week from 2.4382 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Upcoming GE a concern.

13. AUD - Weaker. 1.0311 from 1.0343 last week from 1.0472 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.3096 from 1.334 last week from 1.3271 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.45% from 5.12% last week from 5.04% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 79.83 from 78.94 last week from 79.29 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Small dip in HK & Spore rather than a crash ?

18. Liquidity - Mixed

a. HKD - Stronger. 7.7645 from 7.766 last week from 7.7679 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX weaker at HK$53b from HK$57b last week from HK$57b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Cautious

20. Risk Management - Have you been thinking about your Upside Risk ?

21. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

22. Deleveraging - Orderly or disorderly ? And will the Ratings Agencies make use of the rally to downgrade the IBs ? ( as they cant really downgrade when there's a downdraft ).

23. Interest Rates - When will interest rate spike up ?

24. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

25. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

26. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new positions.

27. US Market Direction - Weaker

Do you see a small dip or a sharp correction ?

And if it's a small dip, is it worth the risk of shorting the market, on an uptrend ?

However, isn't that a "M" forming on the charts ?

And will US Earnings be the catalyst that will drive the market lower ?

Finally, before you start shorting, you may want to note that the 'expert" Analysts have been lowering US earning estimates over the past few months. It's now a very low bar to exceed expectation ...


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:20 am

TOL as of April 15, 2012:-

Lemmings running around

Image

Just when you thought that the market was going to drop, someone spread the news that China will have better-than-expected GDP numbers.

The market then went up, only to see a steep drop the next day, when the actual numbers came out below expectation.

It seems so easy to manipulate the market, as there's a bunch of lemmings that are so afraid to be left out of any rally, while there's another bunch of lemmings, who are so jittery.

Or could it be that there's only a bunch of lemmings, running round and round ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$103 from US$103 last week from US$103 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1658 from US$1629 last week from US$1668 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested in Maple Leaf Coins, Zhaojin & Real Gold.

3. Silver - Flat. US$31.49 from US$31.66 last week from US$32.22 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested in Silver ETF HK 10072

4. Sugar - Sugar traders are bearish for a seventh consecutive week, the longest stretch since at least 2007, on prospects for the first supply glut in four years.

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2359 from 2307 last week from 2263 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance at 2410 ? Vested in A50 China ETF 2823.

6. HK Equities - Stronger. 20701 from 20593 last week from 20556 the previous week. Resistance at 21050 ? Support at 20150 ? Traded Rexlot.

7. Spore Equities - Flat. 2988 from 2986 last week from 3010 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities - Weaker. 1370 from 1398 last week from 1408 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 then 1440 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9638 from 9689 last week from 10084 the previous week. Support at 9575 ? Resistance at 10130 ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 80.93 from 81.63 last week from 82.87 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4433 from 2.4328 last week from 2.4362 the previous week. Buying MYR on dips. Upcoming GE a concern.

13. AUD - Flat. 1.0378 from 1.0311 last week from 1.0343 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Flat. 1.3078 from 1.3096 last week from 1.334 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.52% from 5.45% last week from 5.12% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Flat. 79.88 from 79.83 last week from 78.94 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Why would you now want to buy an investment property in HK, Singapore or China at this point in time ?

18. Liquidity - Stronger

a. HKD - Stronger. 7.7605 from 7.7645 last week from 7.766 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.

b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX weaker at HK$54b from HK$53b last week from HK$57b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Mixed

20. Risk Management - Are you prepared for a 10% - 15% correction ?

21. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

22. Deleveraging - If not now, then when ?

23. Interest Rates - Do you really believe that interest rates will continue to be so low until 2014 ?

24. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

25. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

26. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new position. No fear yet, which means that any correction, may be just a dip.

27. US Market Direction - Weaker

Earnings season is now in full force.

And are you really that smart, to be able to predict Market Direction, when there are results announcement, all over the place ?

If the "experts" cannot even get Alcoa correct, what chance do you really have ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby Aspellian » Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:27 am

Hi Winston,

I always enjoy looking at the pictures that you post here... somehow you manage to find a pic that conveys your tots of the week.

you always ask lots of questions and challenge assumptions... something for me to learn too. ;)

PROMISE, PASSION, PEACE, POWER, PURPOSE, PLAN, PATIENCE, PERSEVERANCE, PROTECTION
DELIGHT, DISCIPLINE, DILIGENT, DETERMINATION, DESIRE

"Its not whether you're right or wrong thats important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - Warren Buffet
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 22, 2012 8:49 am

TOL as of April 22, 2012:-

Image


Confused ?

If you are confused as to what to do next, I dont really blame you.

I've had that same feeling for the past few weeks too.

And I'm still waiting for that breakout to reduce my position further. Or that breakdown to go shopping.

But didnt the "momentum experts" said that you should be buying breakouts and selling breakdowns ? :P


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Flat. US$103 from US$103 last week from US$103 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$11643 from US$1658 last week from US$1629 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested in Maple Leaf Coins, Zhaojin & Real Gold.

3. Silver - Flat. US$31.66 from US$31.49 last week from US$31.66 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested in Silver ETF HK 10072


Equities

1. US Equities - Stronger. 1379 from 1370 last week from 1398 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 ?

2. HK Equities - Stronger. 21011 from 20701 last week from 20593 the previous week. Resistance at 21050 then 21350 ? Support at 20150 ? Traded Rexlot

3. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2407 from 2359 last week from 2307 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance at 2410 then 2460 ? Vested in A50 China ETF

4. Spore Equities - Stronger. 2995 from 2988 last week from 2986 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9561 from 9638 last week from 9689 the previous week. Support at 9575 taken out. Next support at 9465 ? Resistance at 10130 ? Nikkei was weaker des[ite the weak JPY.


Currencies

1. JPY - Weaker. 81.52 from 80.93 last week from 81.63 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4547 from 2.4433 last week from 2.4328 the previous week. Bought some MYR. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Flat. 1.0379 from 1.0378 last week from 1.0311 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Stronger. 1.322 from 1.3078 last week from 1.3096 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7609 from 7.7605 last week from 7.7645 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972

6. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.14 from 79.88 last week from 79.83 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.66% from 5.52% last week from 5.45% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - 5.96%. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - 1.96%

4. Others - India cut the repo rate, the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks, by 50 basis points, to 8 per cent.


Risk-On / Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Inflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Weaker. HK$51b from HK$54b last week from HK$53b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Mixed. Friends and relatives are now telling me that they need to do something with their cash.

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging - Why deleverage when you can borrow at close to zero percent ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Peter Lynch once mentioned before that the market drops 10% every year and 25% every 4 years. And if a correction does come along, why would you be surprised ?


Others

1. Properties - Do you really see the property market turning around next year ? If not, why are you thinking of buying an investment property ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new positions. No fear in the air.

3. US Market Direction - Mixed

Earnings season is in full swing and there are surprises everyday.

My gut feel is that people will soon be quite fed up. And thereafter, they will not really care whether earnings are coming in better or worst than expectation.

'Sell in May & Go Away", could be just around the corner. :?

BTW, it was options expiration last Friday so it would be interesting to see whether the market would correct some time next week.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 29, 2012 8:45 am

TOL as of April 29, 2012:-


Better To Stay Long ?

Image

It looks like the Bulls are winning.

And "buying on dips" was the way to go.

However, that applies to US Equities only, as the other markets are weaker.

So do you really know why you are buying or selling ?



The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Stronger. US$105 from US$103 last week from US$103 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1663 from US$1643 last week from US$1658 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$31.25 from US$31.66 last week from US$31.49 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Stronger. 1403 from 1379 last week from 1370 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 20742 from 21011 last week from 20701 the previous week. Resistance at 21050 then 21350 ? Support at 20150 ? Added to Zhaojin Mining.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2396 from 2407 last week from 2359 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance at 2410 then 2460 ? Vested A50 China ETF

4. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2982 from 2995 last week from 2988 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9521 from 9561 last week from 9638 the previous week. Support at 9575 taken out. Next support at 9465 ? Resistance at 10130 ?


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 80.29 from 81.52 last week from 80.93 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4586 from 2.4547 last week from 2.4433 the previous week. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.0467 from 1.0379 last week from 1.0378 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Stronger. 1.3251 from 1.322 last week from 1.3078 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7593 from 7.7609 last week from 7.7605 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Weaker. 78.71 from 79.14 last week from 79.88 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 5.64% from 5.66% last week from 5.52% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.88% from 5.96% last week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.94% from 1.96% last week



Risk-On / Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Inflows from Inflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Weaker. HK$46b from HK$51b last week from HK$54b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Mixed.

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging - The IBs have probably bought themselves some time, with all the cheap money slushing around

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Are your Stops and Trailing Stops in place ?


Others

1. HK Properties - Only 600 new flats were completed in the first three months, a four-year low, prompting warnings of further price rise

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new positions. It's a Bull Market.

3. US Market Direction - Stronger

New money from a new month, could propel the market higher.

And Earnings announcements are certainly providing the catalyst, to move things upwards.

Not to mention that Helicopter Ben is always around, to talk the market up.

The Plunge Protection Team could also be working overtime, to ensure that things are stable before the Election.

So maybe one should not be really shorting the market, whenever there's a Presidential Election.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun May 06, 2012 8:29 am

TOL as of May 06, 2012:-

Image


Sell in May and Go Away ?

For people living in the Northern Hemisphere, the weather is very nice now.

And if they were smart enough to have bought since November, isn't it a good time to go away and to reward themselves ?

Why would you want to hang around this type of market, especially when it looks like a "M" is forming on the S&P 500 ( again ) ?


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Weaker. US$99 from US$105 last week from US$103 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1636 from US$1663 last week from US$1643 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$30.34 from US$31.25 last week from US$31.66 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Weaker. 1369 from 1403 last week from 1379 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 ?

2. HK Equities - Stronger. 21086 from 20742 last week from 21011 the previous week. Resistance at 21350 ? Support at 20150 ? No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Sronger. 2452 from 2396 last week from 2407 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance 2460 ? Sold A50 China ETF

4. Spore Equities - Stronger. 2991 from 2982 last week from 2995 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9380 from 9521 last week from 9561 the previous week. Next support at 9250 ? Resistance at 10130 ?


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 79.87 from 80.29 last week from 81.52 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4451 from 2.4586 last week from 2.4547 the previous week. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Weaker. 1.0188 from 1.0467 last week from 1.0379 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.3084 from 1.3251 last week from 1.322 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7607 from 7.7593 last week from 7.7609 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 79.50 from 78.71 last week from 79.14 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.43% from 5.64% last week from 5.66% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.73% from 5.88% last week from 5.96% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.88% from 1.94% last week from 1.96% the previous week.

4. Australia - The RBA cut its cash rate by a surprisingly aggressive half a point to 3.75 percent, a level not seen since late 2009

5. China - PBOC released Rmb65bn liquidity through reverse repo to the banking system. It could also indicate that PBOC prefers to use this type of tools to fine-tune liquidity instead of RRR cuts.


Risk-On / Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Weaker. Outflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Stronger. HK$55b from HK$46b last week from HK$51b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Weaker

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging - When would the IBs be deleveraging about US$2.6t of assets ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Iran, Austerity Programs, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - If your stocks have not gone anywhere over the past 4 months, where do you think they would be going if there's a correction ?


Others

1. Properties - Is this bottom for Chinese Housing ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new position but my hands are itchy again

3. US Market Direction - Weaker

The inflows of "new money from a new month" may be over.

And Earnings announcements is winding down.

Can Helicopter Ben continue to really talk up the market ?

And how many more bullets does the PPT has ?

However, it's still a "Presidential Election" year so it's better for me to be a bit more careful and to expect the unexpected ...



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun May 13, 2012 9:21 am

TOL as of May 13, 2012:-

Risk-Off ?

Image

Everything dropped and it was a "Risk-Off" week.

Was the US$2b loss at JPM really that big a deal, when they are managing US$380b ?

Was the election results in Greece and France, really unexpected ?

Has anything really changed from 2 weeks ago ?

Do you know why you are Buying or Selling ?


The week in review:-

Commodities

1. Oil - Weaker. US$96 from US$99 last week from US$105 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1586 from US$1636 last week from US$1663 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$28.89 from US$30.34 last week from US$31.25 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Weaker. 1353 from 1369 last week from 1403 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? Resistance at 1420 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 19965 from 21086 last week from 20742 the previous week. Resistance at 21350 ? Support at 20150 taken out. Next Support at 19000 ? No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2395 from 2452 last week from 2396 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance 2460 ?

4. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2883 from 2991 last week from 2982 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8953 from 9380 last week from 9521 the previous week. Support at 9250 taken out. Next Support at ? Resistance at 10130 ?


Currencies

1. JPY - Flat. 79.93 from 79.87 last week from 80.29 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4523 from 2.4451 last week from 2.4586 the previous week. Bought some MYR. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Weaker. 1.0024 from 1.0188 last week from 1.0467 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2921 from 1.3084 last week from 1.3251 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7658 from 7.7607 last week from 7.7593 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.30 from 79.50 last week from 78.71 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Stronger; 5.51% from 5.43% last week from 5.64% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Stronger. 6.01% from 5.73% last week from 5.88% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.85% from 1.88% last week from 1.94% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Weaker. Outflows from Outflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Stronger. HK$55b from HK$46b last week from HK$51b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Weaker

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging - This risk has been flagged for months. So why are you still afraid of it ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Are there other JPM typed of cockroaches out there ?


Others

1. Properties - Cant see how Chinese Properties can have a sharp rebound, when their government is so determined to bring prices down

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Sold S&P Inverse ETF. No more short position on anything.

3. US Market Direction - Weaker

If the US Market wants to drop, then I should really be loading up on the S&P Inverse ETF.

Instead, I have decided to sell my existing S&P Inverse ETF. My gut feel is that the PPT and Helicopter Ben, would be doing their best to prop up the market.

Anyway, there has not been any new Headwind and all the current bad news are being churned by the bears, who have been wrong since October last year.

Going forward, I would probably be shopping, especially if it's at a good Valuation.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (May 10 - Jun 12)

Postby winston » Sun May 20, 2012 8:54 am

TOL as of May 20, 2012:-

Image

Solar Eclipse

What a big difference, two weeks make !

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 was scaling 1400. Now, we are breaching 1300 !

And I cant help but noticed that the market dropped, after the Super Moon on May 4th :?

If the markets do drop after a Full Moon, would it not also rebound on a New Moon ?

BTW, it will be a New Moon on Monday and there's also a Super Eclipse, which is considered very auspicious by the Buddhists, Tibetans and Hindus.

Time to buy some Bull Calls at high leverage ? :P


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Weaker. US$91 from US$96 last week from US$99 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1591 from US$1586 last week from US$1636 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested. Japanese Pension Funds are supposedly diversifying into gold. And has the PBOC been buying on this dip as well ?

3. Silver - Flat. US$28.65 from US$28.89 last week from US$30.34 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.17; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Weaker. 1295 from 1353 last week from 1369 the previous week. Support at 1290, 1280 then 1250 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 18952 from 19965 last week from 21086 the previous week. Support at 19000 taken out ? Next Support at 18600 ? Bought Rexlot.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2345 from 2395 last week from 2452 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance 2460 ? Watching A50

4. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2779 from 2883 last week from 2991 the previous week. Bought Noble.

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8611 from 8953 last week from 9380 the previous week. Support at 8400 then 8300 ?


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 79.02 from 79.93 last week from 79.87 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4567 from 2.4523 last week from 2.4451 the previous week. Added to MYR again . Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Weaker. 0.9844 from 1.0024 last week from 1.0188 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2761 from 1.2921 last week from 1.3084 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7666 from 7.7658 last week from 7.7607 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.08 from 80.30 last week from 79.50 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.81% from 5.51% last week from 5.43% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.27% from 6.01% last week from 5.73% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.72% from 1.85% last week from 1.88% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Weaker. Outflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$60b from HK$55b last week from HK$46b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Very weak. The sky is falling..

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging - Do you understand what's on the mind of the IBs ? Sell Low, Buy High ? :P

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Besides Greece and Spain, I have to now also read up on Super Moon, Solar Eclipse etc.


Others

1. Properties - Barclay's expecting Chinese Properties to drop another 15% over the next two years.

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. US Market Direction - Weaker

Does market really travel in one direction only ?

What has changed from two weeks ago ?

Do you really know what's going on in Greece & Spain ?

And does the Talking Heads on TV, really know what's going on ? Were they right from October ? If not, why would they be right now ?

Need to remind myself that it does not really matter what I think. The Market will go where it wants to go.

And I better be going with the Market Direction. Or step aside if I think that the Market is wrong and I'm right..


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
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