TOL as of March 25, 2012:-
Last Week of Window Dressing
As we head into the end of March, I need to remind myself that it's the closing price on Friday that would be recorded.
That means that I should not be really shorting the market.
Anyway, it has been a good 4 months for the Bulls.
And for the Bears, either they have been wiped out or they are still trying to sound smart ie. yapping away without putting any money where their mouth is.
The week in review:-
1. Oil - Flat. US$107 from US$107 last week from US$107 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?
2. Gold - Flat. US$1664 from US$1655 last week from US$1706 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested
3. Silver - Flat. US$32.11 from US$32.51 last week from US$34.24 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?
4. Copper - Copper traders extended a bearish streak into a second week, on mounting concern that demand is weakening after manufacturing contracted from China to Europe.
5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2350 from 2405 last week from 2440 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2530 ?
6. HK Equities - Weaker. 20669 from 21318 last week from 21086 the previous week. Resistance at 22600 ? Support at 19000 ? Sold CNOOC Put Warrant. Is that a "M" I see on the charts ?
7. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2990 from 3011 last week from 2963 the previous week. No trade
8. US Equities - Weaker. 1397 from 1404 last week from 1371 the previous week. Support at 1343 ? How high can it go ?
9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 10011 from 10130 last week from 9930 the previous week. Support at 9575 ? Resistance at 10130 ?
10. JPY - Stronger. 82.35 from 83.45 last week from 81.80 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17. Repatriation season coming up.
11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com
12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4382 from 2.4304 last week from 2.4041 the previous week. Am buying MYR on dips but I'm also concern about their upcoming GE.
13. AUD - Weaker. 1.0472 from 1.0594 last week from 1.0575 the previous week. Vested
14. EUR - Stronger. 1.3271 from 1.3176 last week from 1.3122 the previous week.
15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.04% from 4.86% last week from 4.84% the previous week; Record 7.483%.
16. USD - Weaker. 79.29 from 79.77 last week from 80.00 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.
17. Commercial Properties - Hong Kong and Singapore commercial property rents and prices will drop by more than 15 percent in 2012, as financial services companies keep a lid on growth or shrink, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.
18. Liquidity - Weaker.
a. HKD - Weaker. 7.7679 from 7.7631 last week from 7.7589 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7521 - 7.7972.
b. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX weaker at HK$57b from HK$64b last week from HK$79b the previous week.
19. Sentiment - Weaker. And why would you want to be buying at this level ? What has changed from 4 months ago ?
20. Risk Management - Do you know where's the emergency exit ?
21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Is this all there is ?
22. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions
23. Deleveraging - Besides the European IBs, who else needs to deleverage ?
24. Interest Rates / Reserve Ratios - China cut RRR for some rural bank branches of ABC
25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Economies of the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran
26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing
27. Window Dressing - Last week to dress things up for 1Q
28. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No new positions.
29. US Market Direction - Flat
All my indicators above, tells me that I should be starting to short the market.
However, it's the final week for 1Q Window Dressing and I dont want to be going against the BBs.
And if I'm on the wrong side of this trade on high leverage, a week can be like eternity in hell.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
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