TOL as of April 18, 2010:-
Reversal ?
Is GS a atrong enough catalyst for a correction ? Is John Paulson a strong enough catalyst for a correction ? Is Portugal & Spain a strong enough catalyst for a correction ? And is a combination of the above, a stong enough catalyst for a correction ?
BTW, Thailand was trading at a range high just 2 days before there was a strong reversal ...
The week in review:-
1) Oil - US$83.24 from US$84.92 last week. Is a combination of a strong USD, warmer weather, high inventories and Iraqi oil, a strong enough catalyst for a correction ?
2) Gold - US$1136 from US$1161 last week. Who will be buying those IMF gold ?
3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement.
4) Shanghai Equities - 3130 from 3145 last week. Still trend-less. Everyone is waiting for the Yuan revaluation.
5) HK Equities - 21865 from 22210 last week. High volume so there's some distribution. Positions in AMVIG, China Longyuan and Minmetal Land. Sold some China Longyuan.
6) HK IPO - No IPO
7) Spore Equities - 3007 from 2972 last week. No trading idea nowadays
8) US Equities - 1192 from 1194 last week. Support at 1035. Earning seasons is here and I'm expecting some surprises from the new Healthcare bill. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF.
9) Japan Equities - 11102 from 11204 last week. Support @ 9850. The Japanese market has been very strong and has gone up about 20% in past 4 months. PE is now around 21.
10) Emerging Markets - Would people continue to buy on dips ?
11) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Chinese Properties will be facing some more headwinds. Transaction volumes are already dropping.
12) Iran - What's their plan B when there's a sanction ?
13) US & Japanese Interest Rates - When will the sudden spike happen ?
14) USD - 80.94 from 81.24. Will it break-out of 83 ?
15) European Contagion - Subprime started as a non-event at HSBC.
16) Brazil - seems to have all the sweet spots eg. Commodities, Demography, Infrastructure spending for World Cup and Olympics. What can go wrong ?
Some strong catalysts have appeared. Are they strong enough to bring things down ?
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.
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