Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 18, 2010 10:08 pm

TOL as of April 18, 2010:-


Reversal ?


Is GS a atrong enough catalyst for a correction ? Is John Paulson a strong enough catalyst for a correction ? Is Portugal & Spain a strong enough catalyst for a correction ? And is a combination of the above, a stong enough catalyst for a correction ?

BTW, Thailand was trading at a range high just 2 days before there was a strong reversal ...


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$83.24 from US$84.92 last week. Is a combination of a strong USD, warmer weather, high inventories and Iraqi oil, a strong enough catalyst for a correction ?

2) Gold - US$1136 from US$1161 last week. Who will be buying those IMF gold ?

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 3130 from 3145 last week. Still trend-less. Everyone is waiting for the Yuan revaluation.

5) HK Equities - 21865 from 22210 last week. High volume so there's some distribution. Positions in AMVIG, China Longyuan and Minmetal Land. Sold some China Longyuan.

6) HK IPO - No IPO

7) Spore Equities - 3007 from 2972 last week. No trading idea nowadays :(

8) US Equities - 1192 from 1194 last week. Support at 1035. Earning seasons is here and I'm expecting some surprises from the new Healthcare bill. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF.

9) Japan Equities - 11102 from 11204 last week. Support @ 9850. The Japanese market has been very strong and has gone up about 20% in past 4 months. PE is now around 21.

10) Emerging Markets - Would people continue to buy on dips ?

11) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Chinese Properties will be facing some more headwinds. Transaction volumes are already dropping.

12) Iran - What's their plan B when there's a sanction ?

13) US & Japanese Interest Rates - When will the sudden spike happen ?

14) USD - 80.94 from 81.24. Will it break-out of 83 ?

15) European Contagion - Subprime started as a non-event at HSBC.

16) Brazil - seems to have all the sweet spots eg. Commodities, Demography, Infrastructure spending for World Cup and Olympics. What can go wrong ?


Some strong catalysts have appeared. Are they strong enough to bring things down ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby kennynah » Sun Apr 18, 2010 10:29 pm

8) US Equities - 1192 from 1194 last week. Support at 1035. Earning seasons is here and I'm expecting some surprises from the new Healthcare bill. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF.


W...which exact ticker is this? thanks.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 18, 2010 10:45 pm

Hi K,

Are you referring to the S&P Inverse ETF. There's one listed on SGX.

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Winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby kennynah » Sun Apr 18, 2010 10:46 pm

oh...they have a SP500 Inverse ETF listed in SGX? what's the ticker?

thanks..
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 18, 2010 10:57 pm

DBXT S&P 500 Short ETF
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:32 am

TOL as of April 25, 2010:-


Sell in May and Go Away ?

The weather is getting nice and the market is getting frothy.

Isn't that the perfect combination to stay on the side-lines ?


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$85.12 from US$83.24 last week. Can a combination of a strong USD, warmer weather, high inventories and new Iraqi oil, take it down ?

2) Gold - US$1153 from US$1136. Who will be buying those IMF gold ? And what's happening to those gold owned by John Paulson ?

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 2984 from 3130 last week. A lot of red days over the past three weeks.

5) HK Equities - 21244 from 21865 last week. A lot of red days over the past three weeks on high volume. Position in China Longyuan and Minmetal Land. Sold AMVIG.

6) HK IPO - Did not applied for any IPO

7) Spore Equities - 2983 from 3007 last week. Sold some Stamford Land.

8) US Equities - 1217 from 1192 last week. Support at 1035. Stronger than expected. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF.

9) Japan Equities - 10914 from 11102 last week. Support @ 9850. The Japanese market has been very strong and has gone up about 20% in past 4 months. PE is now 20.

10) Emerging Markets - Small Inflows last week.

11) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore) - Chinese Properties will be facing more headwinds. Volumes are already dropping. The income tax requirements will also take away some froth in the market.

12) Iran - Getting close to sanction time.

13) US & Japanese Interest Rates - When will the sudden spike happen ? If Greece has to pay a high interest rate, why should Japan and the US be spared ?

14) USD - 81.5 from 80.94. Will it break-out of 83 ?

15) European Contagion - Now that Greece has started to use their emergency funding, would there be enough money left for Portugal, Ireland and Spain ?

16) Brazil - Interest rates are supposedly going up there and there has been some outflows from Brazilian Equities. However, it's in a sweet spot eg. Commodities, Demography, Infrastructure spending for World Cup and Olympics.


It's been a strange week. The US market continues to go higher while the Asian markets continue to head lower. Commodities were also rising despite the strong USD.

My position has not really change over the past few weeks. I still think that Cash is the best asset to be in at this point in time. Therefore, I'm using any spike to sell down my existing positions. My exposure is now Equities 12%, Short ETF 1% and Gold 5%.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby eauyong » Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:33 am

winston wrote:TOL as of April 25, 2010:-

4) Shanghai Equities - 2984 from 3130 last week. A lot of red days over the past three weeks.

5) HK Equities - 21244 from 21865 last week. A lot of red days over the past three weeks on high volume. Position in China Longyuan and Minmetal Land. Sold AMVIG.



Enjoy reading your ideas as usual.

4) What is the support level?

5) Congrats on your AMVIG. What is the catalyst for Minmetal Land?

Thanks,
eauyong :)
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby lithium » Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:50 am

Winston, thanks for introducing Amvig to me, it has benefited a few of us. ;)
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 25, 2010 10:58 am

Hi eauyong,

1) I think the SSE has some support around 2935. If that gets taken out, the next support is around 2750 and then 2650. Headwind includes less liquidity and higher interest rates. Tailwind includes improving economy and government stimulus.

2) As for Minmetal Land, I think it's a Hold rather than a buy. It's one of the 16 approved SOEs that can do Property Development. It's also trading at a huge discount to RNAV. It's also concentrated in the smaller cities.

However, there are headwinds for the Property sector and I will not be adding to my position. Catalysts include any Asset Injection later. Please see the "Minmetal Land" thread for more info.

Take care,
Winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 25, 2010 11:07 am

lithium wrote:Winston, thanks for introducing Amvig to me, it has benefited a few of us. ;)


This counter has actually performed less than expected. It took almost 7 months to make some real money off it. In times of uncertaintly like this, I dont really like to hold for so long. :P
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