Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[Chinaman]

TOL as of December 4, 2011:-
Market Direction - Stronger
It may be time to check the watchlist again. Window Dressing will begin in about one to two weeks.

As I want to be very sharp when Window Dressing begins, I have decided to take a Trading Break to conserve my energy.

This Year-End Window Dressing comes only once a year. If you missed this opportunity, you will have to wait another year to make some serious money.

Great statement boss..very good advice.
maybe good opportunity to re-balance my portfolio...

but still expecting a 'Volatile' market..be mindful, in order to catch the flying stocks.

Today, checked portfolio....jialat leh, not paisah to tell...out of 20 stocks, only 5 nos blue & 15 nos in red...of cos exclude preference shares....since aug'11, most of my stocks 1 by 1 go underwater....so how?

[kennynah]

but still expecting a 'Volatile' market..be mindful, in order to catch the flying stocks.

Today, checked portfolio....jialat leh, not paisah to tell...out of 20 stocks, only 5 nos blue & 15 nos in red...of cos exclude preference shares....since aug'11, most of my stocks 1 by 1 go underwater....so how?

dont worry bro C... by the end of dec, you might see more "blacks" than "reds"...

good luck

[winston]

TOL as of December 11, 2011:-


Year End Window Dressing



It's time of the year for the traditional year-end window-dressing.

And if it does not come next week, it may be time to rethink the strategy.

Intuitively, I still think that there would still be the year-end window dressing.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$100 from US$101 last week from US$97 the previous week.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1714 from US$1746 last week from US$1686 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$32.16 from US$32.56 last week from US$31.08 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$29.84; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - Wheat and soybeans fell to the lowest in more than a year and corn declined, after the U.S. government said global crop inventories will be larger than expected.

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2315 from 2361 lst week from 2380 the previous week. Support at 2320 ? Resistance at 2570 ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 18586 from 19040 last week from 17689 the previous week. Resistance at 20,500 ? Support at 16250 ? No trade. Trading Break

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2695 from 2773 last week from 2644 the previous week. No trade. Trading Break

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1255 from 1244 last week from 1159 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8536 from 8644 last week from 8160 the previous week. Support at 8100.? Resistance at 9100 ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 77.58 from 77.99 last week from 77.75 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR - 2.4389. Am looking at a chance to buy some MYR to diversify my SGD exposure.

13. AUD - Flat. 1.0219 from 1.0215 last week from 0.9714 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Flat. 1.3387 from 1.3389 last week from 1.323 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 6.36% from 6.68% last week from 7.26% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Flat. 78.63 from 78.63 last week from 79.63 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Will it be a 10% or 20% drop ?

18. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD 7.7821 from 7.7675 last week from 7.7966 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

19. Sentiment - Weaker. A lot of confused people, hence the need for some caution.

20. Risk Management- Is it time to look longer term ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Watching paint dry ?

22. Hedge Funds - No news of any major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - Ongoing process, which means that markets may not be that strong

24. Interest Rates - Australia cut interest rates by 25 bps.

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash - Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Twist & QE

27. Market Direction - Erratic

As the market was strong on Friday in the US, I'm inclined to bet that it may be going up next week.

It may also be time to hold the positions longer.

However, I'm more afraid about what's going to happen after the Window Dressing on December 31st.

Anyway, I still have 3 more weeks to formulate that strategy. In the meantime, it's time to enjoy the ride.

I'm quite refreshed from my "Trading Break" and it's time to make some serious moolah.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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[winston]

TOL as of December 18, 2011:-



Last Chance ?

It feels like this is the last chance to do something. But to do what ?

Buy and hope for Window Dressing ?

Or sell before the plunge ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$94 from US$100 last week from US$101 the previous week.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1593 from US$1714 last week from US$1746 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$29.71 from US$32.16 last week from US$32.56 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$28.88; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - When will short term issues eg. High USD, Deleveraging etc, be replaced by longer term issues eg Demand from Emerging Markets etc ? Or will short term issues be always driving the Commodities market ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2225 from 2315 last week from 2361 the previous week. Support at 2200 then 2130 ? Resistance at 2570 ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 18285 from 18586 last week from 19040 the previous week. Resistance at 19250 ? Support at 17700 ? No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2659 from 2695 last week from the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1220 from 1255 last week from 1244 the previous week. Support at 1160 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8402 from 8536 last week from 8644 the previous week. Support at 8100.? Resistance at 8720 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.74 from 77.58 last week from 77.99 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.432 from 2.4389 last week . Waiting for a chance to buy some MYR to diversify my SGD exposure, probably after CNY

13. AUD - Weaker. 0.9964 from 1.0219 last week from 1.0215 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.3043 from 1.3387 last week from 1.3389 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 6.59% from 6.36% last week from 6.68% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Higher. 80.18 from 78.63 last week from 78.63 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - Buying opportunity or last chance to get out before the drop ?

18. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD 7.7834 from 7.7821 last week from 7.7675 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

19. Sentiment - Weaker. Many baby boomers will not be returning to the market.

20. Risk Management- Cash is King again ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - so what happened to those green shoots ?

22. Hedge Funds - Asian hedge funds saw net outflows of $2.2 billion in September and October, erasing nearly a third of the inflows in the previous eight months, data from Eurekahedge showed.

23. Deleveraging - Will the current ratings downgrade, exacerbate the current deleveraging process ?

24. Interest Rates - Lower in the short term ?

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash - Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Twist & QE

27. Market Direction - Weaker

Does not look like a strong market to me.

The question now is, "What will happen after Window Dressing is over ?".

Will the market plunge 20% from there ? And is this your last chance to get out ?

Or will the plunge force the Feds & Central Bankers, to use their last bullets to start the next QE program, thus pushing the markets up by 20% ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[Chinaman]

Boss,
Your last chance 'X'mas window dressing' i give up hope liao...

shut down my monitor and go for holiday.....live with the paper losses, and console myself go for long term investment and meanwhile collect dividend....oops, btw 90% of the portfolio got dividend dat my priority.

I cant see the light at the end of the tunnel yet....

[winston]

TOL as of December 25, 2011:-




Merry X'mas !

So was Santa thinking of you this year ?

And did he bring you, the present that you wanted ?

If not, you still have a few more days to make some money, to buy the present that you want



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$100 from US$94 last week from US$100 the previous week.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1606 from US$1593 last week from US$1714 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$29.05 from US$29.71 last week from US$32.16 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$28.87; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - Demand versus Deleveraging ? Who will win ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2205 from 2225 last week from 2315 the previous week. Support at 2200 then 2130 ? Resistance at 2570 ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 18629 from 18285 last week from 18586 the previous week. Resistance at 19250 ? Support at 18000 ? No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2676 from 2659 last week from 2695 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1265 from 1220 last week from 1255 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities - Flat. 8395 from 8402 last week from 8536 the previous week. Support at 8100 ? Resistance at 8720 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 78.08 from 77.74 last week from 77.58 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.44001 from 2.4320 last week from 2.4389 the previous week. Waiting for a chance to buy some MYR to diversify my SGD exposure.

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0144 from 0.9964 last week from 1.0219 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Flat. 1.3048 from 1.3043 last week from 1.3387 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 6.98% from 6.59% last week from 6.36% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Weaker. 80.00 from 80.18 last week from 78.63 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - The recent land auction in HK was weaker than expected.

18. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7752 from 7.7834 last week from 7.7821 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

However, Average Daily Turnover on HKEX last week, was very weak at HK$36.5b

19. Sentiment - Stronger. Window Dressing or Short Covering ?

20. Risk Management - Is this the time to be a hero or a coward ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Is the US really turning around ?

22. Hedge Funds - Asian hedge funds saw net outflows of $2.2 billion in September and October, erasing nearly a third of the inflows in the previous eight months, data from Eurekahedge showed.

23. Deleveraging - Ongoing process

24. Interest Rates - Russia reduced interest rate by 25 bps to 8%. This is the first reduction since June 2010.

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline and in Corporations, Cash parked in short term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Stronger

Was the strength of the markets, due to Window Dressing or Short Covering ?

And would there be a major correction after December 31st ?

Last chance to get off the train ? Or last chance to board the train before the Feds and the other Central Bankers starts firing their bullets ?



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of January 01, 2012:-


Happy 2012 !



So how was your 2011 ?

Did you managed to trade successfully ?

And more importantly, did you managed to learn from your mistakes ?

Anyway, 2012 is here and here's your chance to start all over again


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$99 from US$100 last week from US$94 the previous week.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1564 from US$1606 last week from US$1593 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$27.78 from US$29.05 last week from US$29.71 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - Corn traders are bullish for a fifth consecutive week, on speculation that dry weather in South America is damaging crops and boosting demand for U.S. supplies, at a time when stockpiles are predicted to shrink to a 16-year low.

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2199 from 2205 last week from 2225 the previous week. Support at 2165 then 2130 ? Resistance at 2225 then 2400 ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 18434 from 18629 last week from 18285 the previous week. Resistance at 18625 then 19250 ? Support at 18000 ? Bought China Mengniu

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2646 from 2676 last week from 2659 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1258 from 1265 last week from 1220 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8455 from 8395 last week from 8402 previous week. Support at 8100 ? Resistance at 8720 ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.92 from 78.08 last week from 77.74 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4437 from 2.44001 last week from 2.4320 the previous week. Still waiting for a chance to buy some MYR.

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0212 from 1.0144 last week from 0.9964 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.2952 from 1.3048 last week from 1.3043 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 7.11% from 6.98% last week from 6.59% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 80.23 from 80.00 last week from 80.18 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - CLSA views the S'pore government's latest property cooling measures as "harsh," expecting a 35% volume contraction and 10% price correction in 2012,

18. [b]Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7645 from HKD 7.7752 last week from 7.7834 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX was very weak at HK$27.3b compare to HK$36.5b last week.

19. Sentiment - Weaker. Europe seems to be the flavor of the week again

20. Risk Management - Do you have enough set aside if there's a Depression ? And I may have to further reduce my Equities exposure, from the current 31% to around 25%.

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - yawn yawn yawn

22. Hedge Funds - No news of any major redemptions

23. Deleveraging - Ongoing process

24. Interest Rates - Which the path of least resistance ?

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash parked in short term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Weaker

Not much of a "Window Dressing" this year.

Santa was early but also left early.

"Return OF Capital" seems to be more important "Return ON Capital" this year.

And if markets cannot rise on a some tailwind, it's likely that there would be strong turbulence when there's some headwind.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[kennynah]

2012 may start off with a negative week....

this is purely based on my tech read of /ES chart, which clearly shows me that it just hit a brick wall at 1260 level and turned south... i won't be surprised if we get to 1130 over the next 3 months..

[winston]

TOL as of January 08, 2012:-


January Effect ?



Since Santa left early last year, the next thing to look forward to, is the January Effect.

It did happened on the first trading day of the year but like Santa, it may have left early too.

Will US Earnings be now the catalyst, to propel the markets higher ?

Or would we have to hope for the next QE for the market to go up ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$102 from US$99 last week from US$100 the previous week. Iran Effect ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1621 from US$1564 last week from US$1606 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$28.72 from US$27.78 last week from US$29.05 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Commodities - When will the strong USD affect Commodities ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2163 from 2199 last week from 2205 the previous week. At Support of 2165 then 2130 ? Resistance at 2225 then 2400 ? Will there be a RRR reduction or interest rate cut before CNY ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 18593 from 18434 last week from 18629 the previous week. Resistance at 18625 then 19250 ? Support at 18000 ? Sold China Mengniu.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2716 from 2646 last week from 2676 the previous week. No trade.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1278 from 1258 last week from 1265 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8390 from 8455 last week from 8395 previous week. Support at 8100 ? Resistance at 8720 ?

10. JPY - Flat. 76.97 from 76.92 last week from 78.08 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4307 from 2.4437 last week from 2.44001 the previous week. Still waiting for a chance to buy some MYR.

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0228 from 1.0212 last week from 1.0144 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.2724 from 1.2952 last week from 1.3048 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 7.13% from 7.11% last week from 6.98% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 81.25 from 80.23 last week from 80.00 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - How low can it go ?

18. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7652 from HKD 7.7645 last week from HKD 7.7752 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX was very weak at HK$39b from HK$27.3b last week from HK$36.5b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Stronger. January Effect or anticipation of better Earnings ?

20. Risk Management - Who's stronger - Deleveraging or Money-Printing ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Bridgewater Associates is expecting a decade of muddling through

22. Hedge Funds - Inflow of an estimated $3.6 billion in November, after redemptions of $9 billion in October and $2.6 billion in September.


Asian hedge funds managed $125 billion, lower than the peak of $176 billion in 2007, according to Eurekahedge.

23. Deleveraging - European banks deleveraging would put pressure on Syndication, Trade Financing, Shipping and Aviation loans.

24. Interest Rates - Cant see how interest rates can go up now unless there's a collapse of that Currency

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash parked in short term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Stronger

And getting closer to the resistance of 1285 on the S&P 500.

Maybe it will take it out this time, with some help from the upcoming US Earnings season.

It does feel like it wants to go up ...



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of January 15, 2012:-

Confirmation of January Effect ?



Not a bad start to the New Year.

Markets are up. Volatility is down. And no surprises from Europe.

We are grinding higher. But I think complacency is starting to set in.

Is this the calm before the storm ? Is this the fattening of the animal before it's been slaughtered ?

My spidey sense is ringing non-stop. But could it be malfunctioning this time ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$99 from US$102 last week from US$99 the previous week.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1632 from US$1621 last week from US$1564 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$29.72 from US$28.72 last week from US$27.78 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.19; Resistance at US$38 ?

4. Cattle - Price rose to a Record as animal supplies dwindled in the U.S. and global beef demand climbed

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2245 from 2163 last week from 2199 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance at 2400 ? Will there be a RRR reduction or interest rate cut before CNY ? Volume dwindling before the one week CNY Holiday.

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 19204 from 18593 last week from 18434 the previous week. Resistance at 19250 then 19500 ? Support at 18600 then 18400 ? Sold China Yurun

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2792 from 2716 last week from 2646 the previous week. Sold China Mingzhong

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1289 from 1278 last week from 1258 the previous week. Support at 1205 ? Resistance at 1345 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8500 from 8390 last week from 8455 the previous week. Support at 8300 ? Resistance at 8720 ?

10. JPY - Flat. 76.96 from 76.97 last week from 76.92 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50. So how many billion has the Japanese blown away ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.42424 from 2.4307 last week from 2.4437 the previous week. Bought some MYR and I will continue to buy some MYR whenever there's a chance.

13. AUD - Stronger. 1.0322 from 1.0228 last week from 1.0212 the previous week. Vested

14. EUR - Weaker. 1.2680 from 1.2724 last week from 1.2952 the previous week.

15. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 6.641% from 7.13% last week from 7.11% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

16. USD - Stronger. 81.45 from 81.25 last week from 80.23 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

17. Properties - It's always the bid that matters

18. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD 7.7672 from 7.7652 last week from 7.7645 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

Average Daily Turnover on HKEX stronger at HK$53b from HK$39b last week from HK$27.3b the previous week.

19. Sentiment - Stronger. May be a while before it breaks

20. Risk Management - Why are you not running when you have the chance ?

21. Economies of the Developed Markets - Lost Decades in the US & Europe ? Lost Generation in Japan ?

22. Hedge Funds - Since June 2011, investors pulled a total of $152 billion out of stock-based mutual funds. That's the biggest round of selling in a six-month period since March 2009. Back then, investors responded to the financial crisis by pulling $188 billion out of stock-based mutual funds.

23. Deleveraging - If the European banks are deleveraging and selling into any rally, how would it be possible to have a sustainable break-out ? Would the recent European downgrade accelerate the current deleveraging process ?

24. Interest Rates - Zero interest for decades, just like in Japan ?

25. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Baby Boomers Retiring

26. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash parked in short term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

27. Market Direction - Stronger

The S&P 500 is now at 1289.

And it has been above the resistance of 1285 for 4 days now.

Is this not the secondary confirmation that I need ?

But why do I feel that I should sell into the strength, rather than to hold ?

Maybe it's because I have forgotten what a bull market is like and the last time the S&P 500 was at 1285, was about 2.5 months ago.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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