InvestIdeas

The "AAR & TOL" thread is getting too long. I will continue to use that "AAR & TOL" thread to brainstorm, while I use this thread to put together my bi-monthly Investment Ideas.

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TOL:-

1) Stock markets tend to lead the real economy by 6 to 12 months. So when will the real economy be turning around? Definitely not in the next 6 to 12 months ...

2) Oil has corrected and rebounded. I think it will stabilize from here. I'm watching CNOOC 883 in HK. It has already gone up from a low of HK$3.83 to HK$6.30 yesterday...maybe due to short-covering. May pick some up when the price is right..

3) Gold should trend downwards. I'll not be buying any gold stocks or any Gold ETF for the time being.

4) I expect China to stock-pile Commodities next year, taking advantage of the strong US$ and low Commodity prices. When that happens it will be good for Commodities, Dry Bulk Shippers and the Commodities Currencies. In the meantime, the Dry Bulk Shippers, Commodities Producers and the Commodities Currencies will be in the doldrums.

5) Exports to the US & Europe is slowing down rapidly. Next year, things will be tougher. A lot of factories are now closing down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers

6) Chinese Domestic Consumption is very small and will not be able to replace the loss in demand from Europe and US. The Chinese government is now trying to prop up the economy by spending on railway infrastructure.

7) Shanghai - With the government supporting the market, the SSE should be quite safe. The government may allow margin trading but may not allow short-selling. When the next sharp correction occurs, the government will then announce the RMB 400b fiscal & tax package that they've put together. They are still keeping this up their sleeves. In the meantime, CIC and the SOEs are buying back their shares. Am waiting for the right time to add to A50Chinatracker 2823 and WiseCSI300 2827.

8) HK - The short-covering was fast & furious. Counters were moving up by 20% to 30% in a day. I dont think the long funds or retail investors were really buying. The market should correct but I think there would not be any more deep crashes.

9) Chinese Properties - Big slowdown in Macau, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Things are also slowing in BJ and SH. I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property.

10) HK Properties - Don't think it is also the right time to buy. The economic situation is not getting better.

11) Spore - The O&M sector has corrected a lot but I'm worried about their refinancing issues..

12) Taiwan has corrected. Will follow US but I'm also worried about the slowdown in Taiwanese tech exports to the USA. A floor could have been set already with the ban on short-selling. They have also been using their Stabilization Fund.

13) Not interested in Russia, India or Korea anymore. Will concentrate on China.

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. Please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

Winston's agile and active mind never fails to amaze me

Hi Lena,

You are so humble. I do read all your posts as you've a lot of good ideas. BTW, what are you focussing on now ?

Take care,
Winston

Hi Winston

Thank Q for your kind remarks. I'm beginning to pick up STI index stocks. I see more value now after reading MM's post abt Bill Gross

Good Cheers to U.

Hi Lena, Thanks and take care, Winston

TOL:-

1) Stock markets tend to lead the real economy by 6 to 12 months. So when will the real economy be turning around? Definitely not in the next 6 to 12 months. So the stockmarket should not be really going up. However, the parrots on CNBC are now calling for a sharp technical rebound in the markets becuz of Valuation and the large amount of Cash on the sidelines

2) If the parrots are bullish now and if the traders are buying in anticipation of the rally, would the Hedge Funds and the Long Funds be selling into that rally later ? ( There may be continued redemption at the Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds ). Also, have the shorts being covering / covered their positions ?

3) Oil has corrected and rebounded slightly. There could be a technical rebound in anticipation of a cold winter. Thereafter, oil could drop again after winter. I may pick up some oil stocks when the dip is a bit sharp. Did you noticed that there's no more reports of the Nigerian militants bombing the pipelines. Also, no more Hurricanes in the gulf lately

4) The demand for physical gold is very strong. However, if there's a sharp rise in gold, the sellers would emerge again. I'm not buying physical gold or gold stocks yet.

5) China has mentioned that they will be stock-piling some Commodities. I think it would be gradual but may provide some support for Commodities, the Dry Bulk Shippers and the Commodities Currencies. It's still too early to buy any Dry Bulk Shippers or Container Shippers.

6) Exports to the US & Europe is also slowing down rapidly. Next year, things will be tougher. A lot of factories are now closing down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers

7) Chinese Domestic Consumption is very small and will not be able to replace the loss in demand from Europe and US. The Chinese government is now trying to prop up the economy by spending on Infrastructure. However, it will take many months to implement...

8) Shanghai - With the government supporting the market, the SSE should be quite safe. As expected, the government has announced a 4t package to support the economy. The next stimulus package to be announced will be the Income Tax package. I have added to my WiseCSI300 A2827 listed in HK. Am waiting for the right time to add the A50Chinatracker 2823 and some more WiseCSI300 2827. SSE has already rebounded about 25% from the bottom so it is better to pace out the additions.

9) HK - The short-covering was fast & furious. Counters were moving up by 20% to 30% in a day. Can it last ?

10) Chinese Properties - Big slowdown in Macau, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Things are also slowing in BJ and SH. I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property. However, listed Chinese Property companies have been rising due to the cut in interest rates. I have been to a few property launches recently. There's some people there but not too many people are buying. The prices are still very expensive eg. RMB 30,000 per square metre in a so so location in BJ.

11) HK Properties - Don't think it is also the right time to buy. The economic situation is not getting better. Sun Hung Kai Property just launch a project at 25% discount to a neighbouring project by Ka Wah Property.

12) Spore - The O&M sector has corrected a lot but I think they were face more hardship before things turn around. Keppel has faced some cancellations. Ezra has cancelled a Vessel. The growth at KS Energy and Swiber were not impressive.

13) Taiwan has corrected but I'm still worried about the slowdown in Taiwanese tech exports to the USA. A floor could have been set already with the ban on short-selling. They have also been using their Stabilization Fund.

14) Not interested in Russia or India anymore. The Korean Won and Korean stockmarkets have been rebounding. But I will just probably concentrate on China for now..

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

TOL:-

1) I was anticipating a strong rally in the markets. In view of this Madoff scandal, I'm not too sure now. There could be more Hedge Fund redemptions next quarter..

2) Oil has corrected. However, there could be a technical rebound in anticipation of a cold winter. Thereafter, oil could drop again after winter. The oiul stocks still looks too expensive ..

3) The demand for physical gold is very strong. Also, every newsletters that I've seen are bullish on gold. Am I missing something here ?

4) China has mentioned that they will be stock-piling some Commodities. I think it would be gradual and will not really affect the price of commodities. However, it does not hurt to start putting some Commodities on the watchlist especially Oil.

5) Exports to the US & Europe is also slowing down rapidly. Next year, things will be tougher. A lot of factories are now closing down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers

6) Chinese Domestic Consumption is very small and will not be able to replace the loss in demand from Europe and US. The Chinese government is now trying to prop up the economy by spending on Infrastructure. However, it will take many months to implement...

7) Shanghai - With the government supporting the market, the SSE should be quite safe. The next stimulus package to be announced, will be the Income Tax package. I have been trading the WiseCSI300 A2827 listed in HK and A50Chinatracker 2823, buying on dips and selling on strength.

8) HK - The short-covering was fast & furious. Counters were moving up by 20% to 30% in a day. Can it last? I think HK will be range bound with a slight upbias going forward.

9) Chinese Properties - Big slowdown in Macau, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Things are also slowing in BJ and SH. I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property. However, listed Chinese Property companies have been rising due to the cut in interest rates and stimulus measures. I think they have gone up too far, too fast.

10) HK Properties - Don't think it is also the right time to buy. The economic situation is not getting better.

11) Spore - The O&M sector could be range bound from here. I dont think that the current rally in property counters will last.

12) Taiwan has corrected but I'm still worried about the slowdown in Taiwanese tech exports to the USA. However, a floor could have been set already with the ban on short-selling and the support from the Stabilization Fund. Tourism related stocks should continue to do well with the start of Direct Flights with China.

13) Not interested in Russia, Korea or India anymore. I will just probably concentrate on China for now..

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

TOL:-

1) I'm anticipating a strong rally in the markets. Ride it till it breaks. The Madoff scandal could cause some Hedge Fund redemptions next quarter ie. around Feb.

2) Oil has rebounded slightly on fear that the Gaza conflict may expand. However, some of the oil stocks are starting to look expensive. I may buy some Puts on them later.

3) The demand for physical gold is very strong. Almost every newsletters that I've read, are bullish on gold. Will not invest in gold at this point in time. It's not the end of the world. But the momentum is very strong though..

4) China has mentioned that they will be stock-piling some Commodities. I think it would be gradual and will not really affect the price of commodities. However, it does not hurt to start putting some Commodities on the watchlist, especially Oil.

5) Exports to the US & Europe is also slowing down rapidly. Next year, things will be tougher especially after CNY. A lot of factories are now closing down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers. However, some of the Shippers have rebounded strongly on short-covering.

6) Chinese Domestic Consumption is very small and will not be able to replace the loss in demand from Europe and US. The Chinese government is now trying to prop up the economy by spending on Infrastructure. However, it will take many months to implement. Instead, I'm focussing on some Fast Food and Consumer stocks that would not be greatly affected by a slowdown. Their valuation is not cheap.

7) Shanghai - With the government supporting the market, the SSE should be quite safe. The next stimulus package to be announced, will be the Income Tax package. I have been trading the WiseCSI300 2827 listed in HK and A50Chinatracker 2823, buying on dips and selling on strength.

8) HK - Buy on weakness; Sell on strength. It will be a Trader's market, not "Buy & Hold" nor "Short & Hold". Am looking for a chance to trade the HSI H Sharss ETF 2828.

9) Chinese Properties - Big slowdown in Macau, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Things are also slowing in BJ and SH. I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property. However, listed Chinese Property companies have been rising due to the cut in interest rates and stimulus measures. I think they have gone up too far, too fast.

10) HK Properties - Don't think it is also the right time to buy. The economic situation is not getting better.

11) Spore - I cant find anything that I really like except for some holding companies that are trading at deep discount to RNAV. But be careful as their RNAV will continue to drop for at least another year or two. I think this slowdown will last longer than expected.

12) I'm still worried about the slowdown in Taiwanese tech exports to the USA. Tourism related stocks should continue to do well with the start of Direct Flights with China. Can the Stabilization Fund stabilize things ? They would also be removing the ban on short selling very soon.

13) Not interested in Russia, Korea or India anymore. I will just probably concentrate on China for now..

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

1) I'm anticipating a strong rally in the markets. Ride it till it breaks. The Madoff scandal could cause some Hedge Fund redemptions next quarter ie. around Feb.

Since I do not know when the rally is going to break, I am decreasing my long stock exposure by selling call options and shorting the index futures as the rally continues. If the break comes, I'll be in a nice position. If it keeps rallying, I would have earned less by doing the above than by doing nothing.

2) Oil has rebounded slightly on fear that the Gaza conflict may expand. However, some of the oil stocks are starting to look expensive. I may buy some Puts on them later.

I am long on oil currently. While oil prices might remain depressed for an unknown period of time, I prefer to be on the long side now, instead of the short side.

3) The demand for physical gold is very strong. Almost every newsletters that I've read, are bullish on gold. Will not invest in gold at this point in time. It's not the end of the world. But the momentum is very strong though..

The gold bugs are pretty excited, and I really hope that they can push the price of gold up, as I would like to go short on gold. My idea is to hold the following position: long equity, long oil, short gold. In the long term, my guess is that equity and oil will outperform gold.

TOL:-

1) The Madoff scandal could cause some Hedge Fund redemptions. Feb 15 is the deadline for April 1 redemptions. If there's not a lot of selling by late February, we should be able to survive another quarter.

2) Oil has rebounded slightly. However, some of the oil stocks are starting to look expensive. I may buy some Puts on them later as some of the share prices are assuming Oil at US$70-US$75.

3) The demand for physical gold is very strong. Almost every newsletter is bullish on gold. It's not the end of the world. The momentum is quite strong so I'll not be buying Puts on the gold companies yet..

4) China has mentioned that they will be stock-piling some Commodities. I think it would be gradual and will not really affect the price of commodities. However, it does not hurt to start watching them, especially Oil.

5) A lot of factories are now closing down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers. However, BDI has gone up and some of the Shippers have also rebounded strongly on short-covering. I would like to buy some puts on the weaker Shippers but there are no puts on the major Shippers listed in HK

6) I'm focussing on some Fast Food and Consumer stocks that would not be greatly affected by a slowdown.

7) Shanghai - It has gone up while the world has gone down. I think it may have hit a Resistance. The next stimulus package could be the Income Tax package but these announcements are starting to get stale now. I'm worried about the expiry of the locked up period on alot of shares ( 70% of current market cap ).

8) HK - I think the HSI will probably trend downwards after the CNY euphoria. I'll be buying Puts whenever the market gaps up. If the market gaps down a lot, I may also trade it by buying some Calls. Puts are safer.

9) Chinese Properties - I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property despite the various programs

10) HK Properties - I don't think it is the right time to buy as the economic situation is not getting better.

11) Spore - I cant find anything that I really like except for some holding companies that are trading at deep discount to RNAV. But be careful as their RNAV will continue to drop for another two years. I think this slowdown will be longer than expected, lasting into 2011 or even 2012.

BTW, most of the Singaporean Analysts and Fund Managers on CNBC and Bloomberg, are bullish on the STI. They think that the market has price in a depression while they expect only a recession. They also think that things will turnaround in 2H 2009. I prefer to look at each company on it's own merit. Talk is cheap. Show me the earnings. I dont have to rush into the market. Cash is king. There's plenty of time to buy..

12) Taiwan, Russia, Korea & India have dropped a lot... cheap can become cheaper though..

13) I believed that we are now entering a Trading Market but with lower volatility. Therefore, a "Buy & Hold" or "Short & Hold" strategy may not work anymore. I have short and long positions. Whenever, I get a windfall profit or when I'm on a roll for about 1.5 weeks, I will take my profits.

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.