InvestIdeas

millionairemind wrote:W - In your macroeconomic view, how will this high price of oil play out on the nascent economic recovery?

Hi MM.

I think that as long as the rise in oil is gradual, the users would be able to adjust to the rise. I think this hold true for the other Commodities as well.

If the spike is sudden, unexpected and expected to last more than a few weeks, eg. Iran sealing off the Straits of Hormuz, then there might be a problem.

However, some of the Speculators may also decide to take profit on their Long Oil position at that time. From the various articles, Oil is suppose to be only around US$60 but because of these speculators, oil is now at around US$80.

There are also a lot of Oil being stored on Tankers. Every US$1 jump in Oil would provide an additional profit of US$1m per tanker. Some of these oil may be sold very quickly.

As long as the spike is temporary ie. less than 3 months, it should not really affect things. Anything more than that could have consequences on the fragile recovery. However, others have also mentioned that Oil at US$120 could open up some of Oil projects eg. Tar Sands etc.

I'm not really an expert on Oil. This is my 2 cents worth from some of the articles that I have read. Maybe somebody from the Oil Industry may like to comment...

Take care,
Winston

W - Tks

After Action Review @ March 20, 2010

1) What did I do right and should continue to do ?
2) What did I do wrong and should try to improve ?


I have been reviewing my trades since Jan 2009.

Conclusion:-

1) I'm not too good at Scalping. I tend to buy too late and sell too late. Some of my "Scalping" ends up as "Swing" trades and that's when I get into trouble. I have decided to give up Scalping altogether.

2) I'm quite good at Swing Trading. I have consistently been making money on my Swing Trades. I have decided to make bigger bets on my future Swing trades.

3) I'm also not too good at Position Trading. I dont have the patience to wait a few months for the stories to materialize. I have decided to stop Position Trading altogether in this trend-less market. However, I may return to Position Trading when there's a clearer direction on where things are heading.

4) I still have some "Buy & Hold" legacy positions. I will be getting rid of those positions when their stories have materialized. I will stop "Buy & Hold" together. I also dont want to worry too much about PIGS, Interest Rates, Market Direction, Economy etc..

5) In view of my new strategy of focussing on "Swing Trading" rather than "Position Trading" or "Buy & Hold", I will also be cutting back on the time I spend on Macro-Economics. Instead, I will be spending more time looking for Specific Company Catalysts for my Swing Trades.

W,

Can you share a bit more about your setup for Swing Trading (eg. criterias that you look for, entries..exits..guidelines)?

Thanks

yes...good question...

different people use different setup plays...

Ha Ha ..

I tend to look for Catalysts nowadays. This is the "N" in CANSLIM. It could be:-
1) Earnings Announcement
2) Analyst Report
3) Company Announcement
4) Speech from Regulator ( I tend to sit up and take notice when the Prime Minister is speaking )
5) Newspaper Article
etc.

The stronger the Catalyst the better

As long as that company is not trading too long in the tooth, I may buy for the ride.

I normally try to buy at the 25th percentile of the trading range and try to sell at the 75th percentile.

If I have a profit of about Sin$500 in a few minutes, I may take it. If it is a strong day, I may wait until just before lunch to take it. The first 30 mins of the trading day is normally the best time to sell. Whenever something spikes up, it's also a good time to sell. I have sold and bought back positions if the story is still intact.

I normally watch Bid and Sell Volumes for signs on for whether to hold or fold. If I see somebody scooping up large amounts then I may want to hold on a bit longer or even average up if it has not spiked too much. Similarly, if I see someone selling big blocks, I will try to get out immediately.

After a a week or two, people are normally no longer interested in the counter anymore. That's normally the time to get out if I have not already sold. Hence I dont have to really worry about Stop Loss.


Example:-

One week before the NPC meeting, there were rumors that China will be spending a lot of money on Tibet, Xinjiang and Green Energy.

I couldn't find any good Xinjiang and Tibet plays. But there were a couple of Green Energy plays so I bought most of them eg. largest Solar, largest Windfarm, largest Wind Turbine maker, largest Bio Fuel Supplier.

Some of their PEs were ridiculous eg. 40x but since I know that I'm betting for a week or two, PE does not matter to me.

before buying, I would check to see whether there were any recent announcements, news etc, to make sure that I'm not going against any bad news.

I also check the graph to make sure that it had not spiked up in the past few weeks. That's because I dont want to be buying when the short term players are just about to take their profits.

Anyway, all of them spiked up about 10%, 2 days before the NPC Meeting. That was the time for me to exit. I could have waited until the meeting and sell on any announcement but since it's a trend-less market, I prefer to take any windfall profits.


Another Example:-

In Singapore, millionairemind alerted me to Capital Malls Asia. I bought a position and when the announcement was made about their inclusion into the Index, it spiked up. I sold close to the top of that spike. Then there was profit taking.

I bought again as the story is still intact (as it would be included only in a week's time). It went up and I sold again. There was again profit taking and I bought the third time.

It spike slightly and started to drop. As it was getting close to the end of the week, I decided to sell the last position.

thanks W...so, your setups are catalysts such "fundamentals/econ data/news" to decide on Long or Short..

I was hoping you share technical setups instead...eg, people use penants/flags/resistances/supports/fibo retracements & extensions/kumo/MAs/etc...

do you not use any of these setups to initiate positions?

Hi K,

No, I dont start with TA. I start with something solid ie. a Catalyst. If it's a good Catalyst, it will then appear on the Charts and the TA guys would pick it up and buy. And if the spike is high enough, I would probably sell it to the TA guys

I may use TA to time my Entry and Exit but with my half-baked TA skills, it's better to use Gut Feel to get in and out

Take care,
Winston

noted W...

different strokes for different folks.... as long as the stroke make us song....can already...doesn't matter if they are long and slow or hard and fast strokes... can deliver results is all that matters

Very good trades Winston! Catalysts are very important. Most of my winners usually will have potential 1 or 2 catalysts that keep it going. Thanks for the timely reminder.