Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby lithium » Mon Feb 22, 2010 8:25 pm

Winston, how do you know there are a lot of cash on the side-lined? What makes you think the money is coming back this week? Is there any indicator that you are watching? :?:
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Mon Feb 22, 2010 8:35 pm

You can see it. People were reducing their position before CNY.

I think one of the American Investment Bank also mentioned that cash position of the Chinese Mutual Funds were at 21% ( Feb 9, 2010 ).

Theoretically speaking, Mutual Funds cant hold too much cash...
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby lithium » Mon Feb 22, 2010 8:44 pm

OK. Thanks ;) Nice observation.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:15 am

TOL as of February 28, 2010:-


The Tug-of-War continues


The tug-of-war between the Bulls and Bears is not only in Equities but also in Oil, Gold, USD Index etc.

Intuitively, the bears should win in the medium term. However, it's anybody's guess in the short term. Hence, I've stopped all short-term bets eg. stagging on IPOs, scalping, warrants etc.

Instead, I'm doing some Swing Trading whenever there's a strong catalyst. In addition, I have also initiated some Position Trading, in view of the coming NPC Meeting in early March.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$79.66 from US$79.81. The cold weather will be over soon. US$68 may be the entry point but some short term traders are expecting US83 first.

2) Gold - US$1118 from US$1121 last week. Who will buy the IMF gold ?

3) Other Commodities - correcting as well. Still waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 3052 from 3018 last week. Strong Support @ 2750. I may add to my A50 ETF. Not expecting a sharp correction before the NPC meeting and I think that there's a lot of Cash on the sidelines.

5) HK Equities - 20609 from 19894 last week. Low volume. Strong Support at 19500 and thereafter, 19000 . Positions in AMVIG, Fosun, GCL-Poly, Asia Cassava and initiated new positions on China High Speed Transmission, China Longyuan and A50 ETF.

6) HK IPO - No new IPOs.

7) Spore Equities - 2751 from 2757 last week. Support at 2625. Added to Capital Malls Asia and initiated a position on Jardine Matheson.

8) US Equities - 1105 from 1109 last week. A lot of fire-power on the sidelines. Support at 1035 and then 995. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF.

9) Japan Equities - 10126 from 10124 last week. Support @ 9850, 9075.

10) Emerging Markets - Small inflows.

11) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore )- How's the volume recently ?

12) Iran - When will sanctions starts ?

13) US & Japanese Interest Rates - When will the sudden spike happen ?
..
14) USD - 80.51 from 80.72 last week. Getting close to the 50% retracement of 82

15) Risk Management - My portfolio is too concentrated on Green Energy, Commercial Properties, USD(HK$) and SGD.

16) NPC Meeting - Am expecting good news for Pharmaceuticals, Green Energy, Rural Consumption, Agriculture, Xinjiang and Tibet. Buy on rumor, sell on news ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby lithium » Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:33 am

Hey! China High Speed Transmission! You changed your mind? This baby has just pierce thru it's strong support at high volume wor. :roll:
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:55 am

Ha Ha .. I dont rely 100% on charts.

For China High Speed, I'm buying because I expect positive announcements for the Green Energy sector at the NPC meeting.

Hence, I have loaded my portfolio with Green Energy plays :lol: :roll:
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 07, 2010 8:19 am

TOL as of March 7, 2010:-


Bulls 1, Bears 0

Market is stronger than expected. Even the guys on Fast Money have turned bullish. Therefore, it's probably still safe to take some Swing Positions on any dips, especially when it has a strong catalyst.

As for longer term positions, I still need a very good story :?


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$81,50 from US$79.66. Stronger than expected but the cold weather will be over soon. US$68 may be the entry point but some short term traders are expecting US83 first.

2) Gold - US$1135 from US$1118 last week. Who will be buying the IMF gold ?

3) Other Commodities - correcting as well. Still waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 3031 from 3052 last week. Strong Support @ 2750. I have added to my A50 ETF. I'm not expecting a sharp correction during the NPC meeting.

5) HK Equities - 20788 from 20609 last week. Strong Support at 19500 & 19000. Positions in AMVIG. Added to Fosun. Added to A50 ETF. Sold all my Chinese Green Energy plays eg. GCL-Poly, Asia Cassava, China High Speed Transmission and China Longyuan when they spiked up on Wednesday.

6) HK IPO - No new IPOs.

7) Spore Equities - 2790 from 2751 last week. Support at 2625. Sold both Capital Malls Asia and Jardine Matheson.

8) US Equities - 1137 from 1105 last week. Support at 1035. Stronger than expected. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF :?

9) Japan Equities - 10369 from 10126 last week. Support @ 9850, 9075. Still strong and I have not been able to initiate a position yet.

10) Emerging Markets - Stronger than expected.

11) Properties ( HK, China & Singapore )- Why bother at this price ?

12) Iran - When will sanctions starts ?

13) US & Japanese Interest Rates - When will the sudden spike happen ?

14) USD - 80.5 from 80.51 last week. Getting close to the 50% retracement of 82

15) NPC Meeting - Nothing unexpected. Not expecting a lot of changes until the 2012 leadership change.


Everyone knows that the US recovery is weak. Yet the market is pricing in a "V" shape economic recovery. Something is not really right. Either the market is wrong ( ie. being manipulated ? ) or we are too conservative in our outlook on the recovery. Which is the path of least resistance ?

Anyway, Equities, Asian Properties and Commodities are at boom time levels again. But are we actually in boom times ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby winston » Sun Mar 14, 2010 8:51 am

TOL as of March 14, 2010:-


Standing Aside Again :(


The market has been trend-less for the past week. The Bears dare not really short and the Bulls are not really buying.

Volume is weak and US earnings season is almost over. The Economic Data did show some improvement but it does really justify the "V" rebound.

There could be some Window Dressing activities but that's not an easy bet.


The week in review:-

1) Oil - US$81.24 from US$81.5 last week. The cold weather is almost over. US$68 may be the entry point but some short term traders are expecting US83 first.

2) Gold - US$1102 from US$1135 last week. Who will be buying the IMF gold ? The gold jewellery shops in China were almost empty when I checked them out recently. However, the Chinese banks are now introducing Gold Funds to their clients. My informal survey told me that none of my Chinese friends are interested in those Gold Funds at this point in time. They prefer to speculate on the SSE, Properties or to build their own business.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the 50% retracement.

4) Shanghai Equities - 3014 from 3031 last week. Strong Support @ 2750. The NPC Meeting will be over today. Two headwinds ie. higher interest rates & reduced liquidity. Sold my A50 ETF

5) HK Equities - 21210 from 20788 last week. Strong Support at 19500. Very low volume. Positions in AMVIG and Fosun only. Sold A50 ETF.

6) HK IPO - No new IPOs.

7) Spore Equities - 2881 from 2790 last week. Support at 2625. Bought and Sold Capital Malls Asia again this week :D

8) US Equities - 1150 from 1137 last week. Support at 1035. Stronger than expected. Still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF :?

9) Japan Equities - 10751 from 10369 last week. Support @ 9850. Yen is going up on the repatriation of overseas profit before the end of March. Will it affect the market ?

10) Emerging Markets - Stronger than expected. Fifth weekly gain. Inflows of US$1b.

11) Properties (HK, China & Singapore)- Everyone is expecting a 5 to 10% rise

12) Iran - When will sanctions starts ?

13) US & Japanese Interest Rates - When will the sudden spike happen ?
..
14) USD - 79.84 from 80.5 last week. Maybe we will not get the 50% retracement of 82

15) NPC Meeting - Nothing unexpected and not expecting a lot of changes until the 2012 Leadership Change

16) Window Dressing- Starting soon if it has not already started :D


I have increased my Cash position again in view of the above situation.

This sort of trendless market may be worst after Window Dressing.

Nowadays, I'm only Swing Trading whenever there's a strong catalyst. In the absence of a strong catalyst, it's better to spend my time catching up with my contacts.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby millionairemind » Sun Mar 14, 2010 3:31 pm

W - In your macroeconomic view, how will this high price of oil play out on the nascent economic recovery?

I remember back in May 2008, the market started to struggle when oil passed $100 and really tanked when it started to cross $130.
Last edited by millionairemind on Sun Mar 14, 2010 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Mar 10)

Postby kennynah » Sun Mar 14, 2010 3:41 pm

i think Oil high price at that time was "exuberance".... this time around, if oil picks up gradually, it will be viewed as a growing economy...
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