Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Any more Madoff typed scandal that could cause some Hedge Fund redemptions? Apr 15 is the deadline for July 1 redemptions. If there's not a lot of selling by late April, we should be quite ok for another quarter.

2) Oil has rebounded slightly. However, the oil related stocks looked quite expensive..

3) Almost every newsletter is bullish on gold. It's not the end of the world though ...

4) China has mentioned that they will be stock-piling some Commodities. I think it would be gradual and will not really affect the price of commodities. However, it does not hurt to start watching them, especially Oil.

5) A lot of factories have closed down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers. The rise in commodities ecently could be due to re-stocking and not robust demand ..

6) I'm focussing on some Fast Food and Consumer stocks that would not be greatly affected by a slowdown.

7) Shanghai - It has gone up quite a bit. Where's the Resistance? 2600 ? The next stimulus package could be the Income Tax package but these announcements are starting to get stale now. I'm worried about the expiry of the locked up period on alot of shares ( 70% of current market cap ).

8) HK - the HSI is stronger than expected. When is the time to buy some Puts ?

9) Chinese Properties - I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property despite the various programs. SZ and GZ is starting to turnaround from the pits. SH and BJ will probably be slow for the next few quarters. However, Property counters have gone up a lot..

10) HK Properties - I don't think it is the right time to buy as the economic situation is not getting better.

11) Spore - I cant find anything that I really like except for some holding companies that are trading at deep discount to RNAV. But their RNAV may continue to drop for another two years. I think this slowdown will be longer than expected, lasting into 2011 or even 2012.

BTW, most of the Singaporean Analysts and Fund Managers on CNBC and Bloomberg, are quite bullish on the STI. They think that the market has price in a depression while they expect only a recession. They also think that things will turnaround in 2H 2009. I prefer to look at each company on it's own merit...

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil has rebounded slightly. Expecting Oil to drop from lower economic demand and now, the Swine Flu.

2) Almost every newsletter is bullish on gold. Expecting gold to drop. It's not the end of the world. Do not expect funds to allocate the recommended 5% of their portfolio to gold. Why stop at 5% ? Why not 10% ? Why at all ?

3) A lot of factories have closed down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers. The rise in commodities recently, could be due to re-stocking rather than from robust demand.

4) Still focussing on some Fast Food stocks in China that would not be greatly affected by the slowdown.

5) Shanghai - Where's the Resistance? 2600 ? The next stimulus package could be the Income Tax package. And if the economy is doing well, why the need to contiinously announce stimiulus programs ? Am also worrying about the expiry of the locked up period on a lot of shares ( 70% of current market cap ). And how does one cross-check those economic numbers - electricity usage, income tax receipts, import-export numbers, PMI, Commodity prices etc..

6) HK - the HSI is stronger than expected. Where's the Resistance ? 16,000 ? And is now the right time to buy some Puts since Swine Flu has now arrived in HK ?

7) Chinese Properties - I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property. SZ and GZ is starting to turnaround from very low levels. SH and BJ will probably slow down over the next few quarters. There were some pent-up demand from first time buyers and once these first time buyers have finished their buying, where would new demand be coming from ?

8) HK Properties - I don't think it is the right time to buy as the economic situation is not getting better. Now that Swine Flu is already in HK, let's see whether what the speculators ( who have been buying recently ) would be doing ...

9) Spore - I cant find anything that I really like. I think this slowdown will be longer than expected, lasting into 2011 or even 2012.

10) Swine Flu - People are pricing things as if it's not a threat to the economy. What happens if something does happen? Anyway, sentiments will be bad for a few months even if nothing happens. Tourism-related stocks would definitely be hit. Not sure that I want to be chasing the Pharmas, Glove & Mask makers etc.

The above are to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment on the above. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

[helios]

if all existed in the space of bad news, one wonders WHAT will keep our optimism going?

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil has rebounded to > US$60. The top was about US$150 and the low was about US$35. So the mid-point is about US$90. Still have another 50% to go before reaching that mid-point. The weakness in the US Dollar is also fueling the rally. Oil stocks eg. CNOOC have rallied. May want to buy on any serious dip but would not chase at this price ...

2) Almost every newsletter is bullish on gold. Flight to safety when the US Dollar tanks? Jewellers are not buying. Only Gold Funds are. Will not chase gold at this price. I have some Gold Stock eg. Zhaojin & Zijin ( 50% copper ) on my Watch-list for any serious pull-back. Need to think about what I want to do with those gold coins that I bought at Sin$533 per oz many years ago...

3) A lot of factories have closed down in China. Not good for the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers. The rise in commodities recently, could be due to re-stocking rather than from robust demand. However, China is continuing their stock-piling of Commodities..

4) Still focussing on some Fast Food stocks in China that would not be greatly affected by the slowdown.

5) Still focussing on some Chinese Internet related stocks that are not affected by the slowdown. However, they have run up quite a bit so I will just have to wait for a better entry point. The risk here is that the are trading at lofty PEs

6) Shanghai - Where's the Resistance? 2800? 2900? The next stimulus package could be the Income Tax package.

7) HK - Where's the Resistance ? 17,700? 18800? Sold most of my HK stocks except for one or two that I have been trading.

8) Chinese Properties - I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property. However, SH and BJ may be insulated from the slowdown due to the urbanization trend.

9) HK Properties - I don't think it is the right time to buy as the economic situation is not getting better.

10) Spore - I cant find anything that I really like at the current price. Not looking hard enough. S-Chips ? S-REITS ?

11) Swine Flu - People are pricing things as if it's not a threat to the economy. What happens if something does happen?

12) US Dollar - Starting to tank now. Another sign that fear is abating? Who would be the benificiary? Commodities?

13) Taiwan & India - Ran up too much. Will have to wait for a better entry point.

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments.

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil has rebounded to about US$70. The top was about US$150 and the low was about US$35. So the mid-point is about US$90. Still have another 30% to go before reaching that mid-point. The weakness in the US Dollar is also fueling the rally. Oil stocks eg. CNOOC, have rallied strongly. May want to buy on any serious dip but would not chase at this price ...

2) Gold has been strong latey. Can it last ? Almost every newsletter is bullish on gold. Flight to safety when the US Dollar tanks? The Jewellers are not buying. Only Gold Funds are. Will not chase gold at this price. I have some Gold Stock eg. Zhaojin & Zijin ( 50% copper ) on my Watch-list for any serious pull-back..

3) Commodities have been rising lately. Is it due to re-stocking, robust demand or reversion to the mean after the steep decline ? China is continuing their stock-piling of Commodities. Recently, I bought some Commodity ETFs as well shares in a Palm Oil company. I'm also watching the Commodities Producers, Commodities Currencies, Dry Bulk Shippers & Container Shippers. I dont understand the Shipping businss so I may stay away from them for a while..

4) Still watching some Consumer & Fast Food stocks in China that would not be greatly affected by the global slowdown. However, they have rallied quite abit so I will not be chasing them a this price.

5) Still focussing on some Chinese Internet related stocks that are not affected by the slowdown. However, they have run up quite a bit so I will just have to wait for a better entry point.

6) Shanghai - Where's the Resistance? 2900? The next stimulus package could be the Income Tax package.

7) HK - Where's the Resistance ? 19000? Sold most of my HK stocks except for one or two that I have been trading.

8) Chinese Properties - I dont think it is the right time to buy a Chinese property. However, SH and BJ may be insulated from the slowdown due to the urbanization trend. Am personally aware of a few first time buyers that have bought properties recently. BTW, Yanlord Garden in Lu Zia Zhui, Shanghai is going for RMB50,000 per sq m. ( not cheap )..

9) HK Properties - I don't think it is the right time to buy as the economic situation is not getting better.

10) Spore - I still cant find anything that I really like at the current price. Not looking hard enough. S-Chips ? S-REITS ?

11) Swine Flu - People are pricing things as if it's not a threat to the economy. What happens if something does happen?

12) US Dollar - Starting to tank now. Another sign that fear is abating? Who would be the benificiary? Commodities? Canadian $? Denmark's Krone? Australian $? Euro? RMB? Sin$?

13) Taiwan, Korea, Russia & India - Ran up too much. Will have to wait for a better entry point. Am watching some Emerging Markets ETFs.

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil has rebounded to about US$70. Top @ US$150, Low @ US$35 and Mid-point @ US$90. Still have another 30% to go before reaching that mid-point. Oil stocks eg. CNOOC, have rallied strongly. May want to buy on any serious dip but would not chase at this price. The rebound is too steep and quick..

2) Gold has been trending downwards. Where's the bottom ? US$800 ? The Jewellers are not buying. Only Gold Funds are. Will not chase gold at this price. Zhaojin & Zijin ( 50% copper ) is on my Watch-list for any serious pull-back..

3) Commodities have been rising lately due to the stock-piling by China. I think it has gone up too far and too fast. I have sold all my Commodity ETFs as well as shares in a Palm Oil company.

4) Still watching some Consumer & Fast Food stocks in China that would not be greatly affected by the global slowdown. However, they have rallied quite abit so I will not be chasing them a this price.

5) Still focussing on some Chinese Internet related stocks that are not affected by the slowdown. However, they have run up quite a bit so I will just have to wait for a better entry point.

6) Shanghai - Where's the Resistance? 2900? The next stimulus package could be the Income Tax package.

7) HK - Where's the Resistance ? 19000? Sold all my HK stocks.

8) Chinese Properties - SH and BJ may be insulated from the slowdown due to the urbanization trend. But I dont see huge increases as in the past.

9) HK Properties - I don't think it is the right time to buy as the economic situation is not getting better.

10) Spore - I still cant find anything that I really like at the current price. Not looking hard enough. S-Chips ? S-REITS ?

11) Swine Flu - People are pricing things as if it's not a threat to the economy. What happens if something does happen?

12) US Dollar - What is the alternative if it tanks ? Commodities? Canadian $? Denmark's Krone? Australian $? Euro? RMB? Sin$?

13) Taiwan, Korea, Russia & India - Ran up too much. Will have to wait for a better entry point. Am watching some Emerging Markets ETFs.

14) Getting close to Window Dressing time. I may trade the indices if there's a huge drop or a huge surge.

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[kennynah]

12) US Dollar - What is the alternative if it tanks ? Commodities? Canadian $? Denmark's Krone? Australian $? Euro? RMB? Sin$?

AUD

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil: High US$150, Low US$35, Mid-Point US$90. Still have another 30% to go before mid-point. Watching CNOOC. Expecting Oil to drop.

2) Gold has been trending downwards. Jewellers are not buying. Watching Zhaojin & Zijin ( 50% copper ). Expecting gold to drop further ...

3) Commodity ETFs have lost a bit of their value over the past 3 weeks. I'm starting to buy back some of the Commodity ETFs that I sold 3 weeks ago. I know I cant pick the bottom so I'll be pacing in my buying. I need to increase my exposure to Commodities for the next cycle.

4) China - Consumer & Fast Food. They have rallied quite a bit. Sold Ajisen a while back.

5) China - Internet. They have run up quite a bit too. Sold Tencent and watching the effect of the ban on "gold-farming".

6) Shanghai - Strong resistance at 3070 and it has gone thru it. Where's the next stop ? I will not be chasing any A Shares ETFs

7) HK - very volatile. Added to my Puts position.

8) Chinese Properties - Properties in SH and BJ are selling like hot cakes. I dont intend to buy any physical Chinese Property or any Chinese Property counters in the near future.

9) HK Properties - Selling like hot cakes too. Maybe it's because of the low interest rate. I dont intend to buy any physical HK Property or any HK Property counters in the near future.

10) Spore Equities - I still cant find anything that I really like at the current price..

11) US Equities - Earnings reporting again. Will it be the catalyst that will bring the market down ? Or if earnings is better than expected, would it provide more fuel to the current rally? I have a small position in a "S&P Short" ETF. Strong support for S&P at 875.

12) Swine Flu - People are pricing things as if it's not a threat to the economy. What happens if it becomes a threat ?

13) US Dollar - What is the alternative if it tanks ? Commodities? Gold ? CDN? AUD? Euro? RMB? Sin$?

14) Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Russia & India - Will have to wait for a better entry point. Am watching some Emerging Markets ETFs.

15) Window Dressing has come and gone. No more strong catalyst for the BBs to buy ?

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[winston]

TOL:-

1) Oil @ US$63: Strong support at US$58. If it drops below US$58, the next stop is US$53. Hurricane season starting in Sept. Already initiated a small position in CNOOC to follow it's story.

2) Gold @ US$937: Support at US$875; Resistance at US$965; Jewellers are not buying. Watching Zhaojin & Zijin(50% copper). Expecting gold to drop.

3) Commodity ETFs. Pacing in my buying. Need to increase my exposure to Commodities for the next cycle.

4) China - Consumer & Fast Food. Went up too much too fast. Sold some Little Sheep.

5) China - Internet. The ban on "gold-farming" has not affected Tencent yet

6) China - Infrastructure. Cement, Steel, Building Materials. Ran up too much too fast.

7) China - Green Energy. Wind, Solar. Ran up too much too fast.

8) Shanghai & HK - Very strong. How long can the euphoria last? When is the right time to short it ?

9) HK IPO - safer to use my cash to stag on some IPOs

10) Spore - I still cant find anything that I really like at the current price. Need to research the S-Reits again

11) US Equities - Strong support for S&P at 875. Earnings seasons underway. Bulls are winning as expectations are very low. But why are expectations low ? What's going to happen after earnings season?

12) Swine Flu - Looks like it's not currently a threat. Let's see what happens during Winter.

13) US Dollar - What is the alternative if it tanks ? Commodities? Gold ? CDN? AUD? Euro? RMB? Sin$?

14) Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Russia & India - Will have to wait for a better entry point.

15) Malaysia & Thailand; Will avoid until it's next election.

16) Indonesia: Will avoid for the time being. What happens if there are further incidents ?

17) Macau: Hotel occupancy at only 60%. Too many casinos. There's long term potential but where's the opportunity now ?

18) Hedge Fund: Are the scandals over ? Next redemption date is August 15 for Oct 1 redemption

19) Mutual Funds: Flow has trickled down. When will they head back to US Equities from Emerging Markets ?

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Use the info above at your own risk. Also, please do feel free to comment. I would like to also hear your kind thoughts and comments..

[kennynah]

let's see....which other countries have you not covered