Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby helios » Sat Jan 09, 2010 3:45 pm

YO Winston,

Your tech stocks (MFS, Hotung) are illiquid ... so your investment timeframe should be longer, isn't it?
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Sat Jan 09, 2010 3:53 pm

San San wrote:YO Winston,

Your tech stocks (MFS, Hotung) are illiquid ... so your investment timeframe should be longer, isn't it?


I think all my Singaporean stocks are not that liquid. I dont really look at them unless there's an announcement. I think they are less than 10% of my portfolio ...
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:01 am

TOL as of January 9, 2010


When you are not sure, stand aside


It's very difficult developing the patience and discipline to wait for an opportunity. The hands are itchy. You think that you can make a quick Sin$5000 within a few minutes. The Breaking News are flashing. You think that your info is faster than the Big Boys. You can see stuff on the charts that others supposedly cant see ..

This is the time that I want to stand aside. This is the time, I will turn off the volume on the TV. This is the time that I will not bother to look at the charts. This is the time I push myself to look at the big picture again ....


1) Gold - Will only interest me when it's about US$850. Watching some Chinese gold companies...

2) Oil - Stronger than expected. Will only interest me when it's about US$64. Watching some Chinese Oil companies...

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the other Commodities to correct as well. Watching some Chinese Metal companies...

4) Shanghai Equities - Three catalysts have emerged that may trigger a correction ie. Inflation, Rising Interest Rates and various regulations to curb Property Speculation. Also, people may start taking some money off the table before the week-long CNY holidays.

Maybe that's why the regulators approved Index Futures and Margins Trading. I was actually expecting them to approve it only when there's a crash. So maybe they are trying to preempt things.

5) HK Equities - Positions in AMVIG and Cassava. Sold Zhongwang and Hua Bao.

6) HK IPO - Stagged Schramm. No new IPOs yet.

7) Spore Equities - Dual listings in HK & Taiwan, seems to be the flavor. This is a warning sign for me, to be careful of the HK and Taiwanese markets. If they are lining up to buy S-Chips, then there must be something quite wrong in those places..

8) US Equities - Higher Lows and Higher Highs on low volume

9) Japan Equities - Stronger than expected. I was expecting a stronger Yen but the new guy mentioned that he would like to have a weaker Yen. Not sure whether he's trying to talk up the market or whether he really means what he says.

10) Properties (HK,Spore & China) - The politicians have made their speeches, so act accordingly. However, I still think that a major change will only occur in 2H 2011.

11) Swine Flu - If the cold weather is not making things worst, maybe it will not be a big problem anymore, unless they are covering things up :?

12) Emerging Markets - Mark Mobius is also afraid of a correction :P

13) Iran - Still no news of any sanctions. The deadline has expired

14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010

15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Expecting it to rise, probably sooner than expected

16) USD - Is next stop, the 50% retracement of about 82 ?

17) Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

The economies are recovering. However, that does not mean that there would be no 10% correction. And it also does not mean that we are out of the woods either. There's still plenty of things to worry about eg. US Foreclosures, US Commercial Properties, Unemployment in US, Europe & Japan, Eastern European Loans, Corporate Debts, Lower Margins from Higher Commodity Prices, Iran, Weak Consumer Spending in US, Europe & Japan, NPLs from the Massive Chinese Loans etc
.
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby lithium » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:19 am

It shows how difficult it is when you have a huge fund size. You have to look longer term
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:32 am

lithium wrote:It shows how difficult it is when you have a huge fund size. You have to look longer term


Ha Ha ... I try to follow the 70 / 30 Rule.

70% Strategic ie. where do I want to put 70% of my money.

30% Tactical ie. for trading opportunities eg. strong catalyst, breaking news, trying to catch a falling knife etc.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Sun Jan 17, 2010 8:46 am

TOL as of January 17, 2010:-


Keeping the gun-powder dry


The markets are trend-less and I've been staying on the sidelines. The only positions that I have now, are some laggard stocks that I think are "undervalued" and has some positive catalyst.


1) Oil - US$ 78. The cold weather would be over in a few weeks ( hopefully :? )

2) Gold - US$1130; No Chinese lining up to buy gold coins ? :P

3) Soft Commodities are correcting. Expecting hard commodities to correct as well.

4) Shanghai Equities - Three catalysts for a correction, have appeared . Next stop @ 3050 ? Also, people may start taking some money off the table before the week-long CNY holidays.

5) HK Equities - Positions in AMVIG. Sold Cassava. People will start applying for the IPOs again next week.

6) HK IPO - May apply for South Gobi Energy depending on the pricing.

7) Spore Equities - Reviewed my S'pore Portfolio. May add to Hotung and Starhill

8) US Equities - Higher Lows and Higher Highs on low volume, Still keeping my Inverse ETF

9) Japan Equities - Stronger than expected.

10) Properties (HK, Spore & China) - Volume always fall before Prices ?

11) Swine Flu - No news is good news unless they are controlling the news

12) Emerging Markets - Outflow from China Funds

13) Iran - Sanctions are now being targeted on the companies owned by the Revolutionary Guards and the Ruling Elites. This is a good move and will not affect the general population.

14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010

15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Expecting it to rise, sooner than expected. 2H ?

16) USD - Is next stop, the 50% retracement of about 82 ?

17) Chinese Steel - Higher iron ore prices; Higher Coking Coal prices; Higher Oil prices; Higher Electricity prices; Overcapacity in industry; Can they pass on the higher cost ?

18) Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


I'm not expecting a crash but a correction of 10% to 15% is not unreasonable. I dont think earnings have caught up with valuation.

Under this scenario, maybe the "correct" strategy is to "Buy on Dip, Sell on Rebound" on stocks that are fundamentally strong and are trading at "fair" valuation.

I'm not comfortable with a "Buy & Hold" strategy unless it's for stocks that I perceived to be "extremely undervalued".

I'm also not comfortable shorting the market as it's not euphoric yet and there's still some cash on the sidelines.

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby Cheng » Sun Jan 17, 2010 1:58 pm

Spore Equities - Reviewed my S'pore Portfolio. May add to Hotung and Starhill


Interesting, I'll take a look at these companies.

Winston do you dabble in options? In a trend-less market, options may be a good alternative. Can sell some puts or do covered calls, straddles etc.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Sun Jan 17, 2010 2:16 pm

Cheng wrote: Winston do you dabble in options? In a trend-less market, options may be a good alternative. Can sell some puts or do covered calls, straddles etc.


Hi Cheng,

I've not invested in Options for many years. Kennynah is the resident expert on Options. He has a thread on Options titled "Options Strategies" in the forum.

One of the more popular Option Strategy, is to buy a straddle about 3 weeks before the earnings announcement of a high beta stock eg. biotech, tech etc. Thereafter, sell both the call and puts and pocket the difference.

I'm sure kennynah has a lot more Options strategy in his thread.

Take care,
Winston
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby winston » Sun Jan 24, 2010 12:47 pm

TOL as of January 24, 2010:-


Waiting for the Buy Signals


After waiting for weeks, things are starting to correct now ...

As I'm not expecting a crash, I'm now reviewing my buy signals:-
a) Watching for any 50% retracement of a major move
b) Watching for any break-outs off any congestion areas
c) Watching for any "W" forming
d) Watching for any double or triple bottoms


1) Oil - US$ 74.5 down from US$78 last week. The cold weather would be over soon. Waiting for US$68.

2) Gold - US$1090 down from US$1130 last week; Waiting for US$850. Agree with Jim Rogers that one should not be buying gold at this price.

3) Other Commodities - correcting as well.

4) Shanghai Equities - Lower Lows and Lower Highs. Next stop @ 3050, 2950 and 2750. People are now taking money off the table before the week-long CNY holidays.

5) HK Equities - Position in AMVIG only. Lower Lows and Lower Highs. However, the HSI is only down 10% from the top of around 22,950. There's also some funds outflow from HK.

6) HK IPO - Apply for Meike. Did not apply for South Gobi Energy as I'm not comfortable with it's valuation although it's in a hot industry.

7) Spore Equities - Did not add to Hotung and Starhill as I'm not comfortable with the market direction.

8) US Equities - Strong support at 1080. If that's taken out, next stop is 1035 and 995. Still keeping my S&P Inverse ETF.

9) Japan Equities - Stronger than expected. Next Stop @ 10,150, 9850 and 9075.

10) Properties (HK, Spore & China) - With Equities and Commodities correcting, how's the bid vs ask on your investment property ? :P

11) Swine Flu - Better than expected unless they are covering things up. Weather getting warmer.

12) Emerging Markets - Outflow from China Funds. Expecting a correction.

13) Iran - When will sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards and the Ruling Elites kick in ?

14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010

15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Expecting it to rise, sooner than expected. 2H ?

16) USD - Is next stop, the 50% retracement of about 82 ?

17) Sugar - At 29 year high. Will definitely affect the margins of those companies that uses a lot of sugar in their product.

18) Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

19) Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index page.


The markets are starting to correct. I think it would continue to be weak for the near future and possibly over the next two years. Therefore, for any stocks that I want to buy, I would need a very strong catalyst to be able to go against Market Direction.

I have not bought any put warrants or bear warrants yet. I may do so if a strong catalyst appears. I dont think that the US Bank tax and the new US Bank Regulations, are strong enough catalysts to instill a lot of fear.

For the time being, Earnings Surprises ( up and down ) would still be the ongoing driver for the movement in the US market. However, the market has decidedly become abit more cautious and people have suddenly woke up to the fact that it's no longer a one way street...

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas

Postby b0rderc0llie » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:59 pm

winston wrote:1) Oil - US$ 74.5 down from US$78 last week. The cold weather would be over soon. Waiting for US$68.


Still holding long oil position. $68 seems a nice price to buy some more.

winston wrote:2) Gold - US$1090 down from US$1130 last week; Waiting for US$850. Agree with Jim Rogers that one should not be buying gold at this price.


Still holding short gold position. $850 seems like a nice price to cover back.

winston wrote:8) US Equities - Strong support at 1080. If that's taken out, next stop is 1035 and 995. Still keeping my S&P Inverse ETF.


Nice. At what point will you want to take profit with the S&P inverse ETF?

winston wrote:10) Properties (HK, Spore & China) - With Equities and Commodities correcting, how's the bid vs ask on your investment property ? :P


I am looking at a 99yr leasehold property which the owner is asking for 2000 psf. If nobody is buying it at 2000 psf, is it still worth 2000 psf?

winston wrote:15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Expecting it to rise, sooner than expected. 2H ?


Am short US treasuries, so I am waiting for the interest rate rise too.

winston wrote:17) Sugar - At 29 year high. Will definitely affect the margins of those companies that uses a lot of sugar in their product.


Am short sugar. Will have to see how it goes. Meanwhile, buying other soft commodities which are "cheaper", as a hedge to the short sugar position.
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