TOL as of January 24, 2010:-Waiting for the Buy SignalsAfter waiting for weeks, things are starting to correct now ...
As I'm not expecting a crash, I'm now reviewing my buy signals:-
a) Watching for any 50% retracement of a major move
b) Watching for any break-outs off any congestion areas
c) Watching for any "W" forming
d) Watching for any double or triple bottoms
1) Oil - US$ 74.5 down from US$78 last week. The cold weather would be over soon. Waiting for US$68.
2) Gold - US$1090 down from US$1130 last week; Waiting for US$850. Agree with Jim Rogers that one should not be buying gold at this price.
3) Other Commodities - correcting as well.
4) Shanghai Equities - Lower Lows and Lower Highs. Next stop @ 3050, 2950 and 2750. People are now taking money off the table before the week-long CNY holidays.
5) HK Equities - Position in AMVIG only. Lower Lows and Lower Highs. However, the HSI is only down 10% from the top of around 22,950. There's also some funds outflow from HK.
6) HK IPO - Apply for Meike. Did not apply for South Gobi Energy as I'm not comfortable with it's valuation although it's in a hot industry.
7) Spore Equities - Did not add to Hotung and Starhill as I'm not comfortable with the market direction.
8) US Equities - Strong support at 1080. If that's taken out, next stop is 1035 and 995. Still keeping my S&P Inverse ETF.
9) Japan Equities - Stronger than expected. Next Stop @ 10,150, 9850 and 9075.
10) Properties (HK, Spore & China) - With Equities and Commodities correcting, how's the bid vs ask on your investment property ?
11) Swine Flu - Better than expected unless they are covering things up. Weather getting warmer.
12) Emerging Markets - Outflow from China Funds. Expecting a correction.
13) Iran - When will sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards and the Ruling Elites kick in ?
14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010
15) US & Japanese Interest Rates - Expecting it to rise, sooner than expected. 2H ?
16) USD - Is next stop, the 50% retracement of about 82 ?
17) Sugar - At 29 year high. Will definitely affect the margins of those companies that uses a lot of sugar in their product.
18) Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
19) Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index page.
The markets are starting to correct. I think it would continue to be weak for the near future and possibly over the next two years. Therefore, for any stocks that I want to buy, I would need a very strong catalyst to be able to go against Market Direction.
I have not bought any put warrants or bear warrants yet. I may do so if a strong catalyst appears. I dont think that the US Bank tax and the new US Bank Regulations, are strong enough catalysts to instill a lot of fear.
For the time being, Earnings Surprises ( up and down ) would still be the ongoing driver for the movement in the US market. However, the market has decidedly become abit more cautious and people have suddenly woke up to the fact that it's no longer a one way street...
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"