Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby helios » Sun Apr 11, 2010 1:27 pm

winston wrote:TOL as of April 11, 2010:-


Bulls 2, Bears 0


It has been a good week for the Bulls. But who would be buying at these prices ? Is everything not being priced for perfection ? And what's the path of least resistance on some unexpected news ?

Personally, I have also been taking riskier bets over the past few weeks. These are bets that I dont normally do and I have been ignoring basic stuff like PEG and Valuation. Instead, I have been buying Momentum and selling them over for small profits.

Maybe everyone is also doing the same thing. There's confidence in the air that we would all be able to get out in time. And since it's a short term bet, we dont worry about fundamental things like PEG, European Contagion, Rising Interest Rates etc. The trend is your friend ...



Agreed. I don't much confidence to stay vested for mid to long timeframes. Each month is running on its on cycle it seems. And the cycle feels like it's trending in weekly timeframe now (on lower volumes) ...

Dow will break 11,000 or VIX will stay low. However, all these indexes are not so important as they don't make sense ...

Awaiting for Zeus to send a lightning bolt to the markets ...
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby lithium » Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:47 pm

looks like it needs a catalyst to go down instead of up?
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 11, 2010 2:56 pm

lithium wrote:looks like it needs a catalyst to go down instead of up?


We learned in physics that an object in motion will continue on it's track unless there's another force that will make it change direction.

Similarly, since the trend is upwards now, it will continue on this track, unless there's a sudden, violent, unexpected, external force that would make it change direction ...

( BTW, Sudden, Violent, External, Unexpected are terms that they use in your Personal Accident Policy :P )
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby helios » Sun Apr 11, 2010 5:14 pm

RE: Healthcare Bill,

What sort of surprises are you expecting?
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 11, 2010 5:56 pm

San San wrote:RE: Healthcare Bill, What sort of surprises are you expecting?


As mentioned earlier, some US companies are now starting to take one-time charges for new expenses arising from the US Healthcare Bill.

So far, I think that three companies including Boeing and Verizon, have already taken these one-time charges.

When US companies take this one time charge, their earnings are reduced and their share price are affected as the Analysts have not factored in this charges yet.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby kennynah » Sun Apr 11, 2010 6:40 pm

one needs to understand the primary motivation behind this HealthCare Bill... in the 2 terms that cowboy/serial murderer bush was in office, he skyrockted US debts to some USD11 trillion from a budget surplus by the end of clinton administration....by cutting taxes twice and gave Medicare and Mediaid to americans at the expense of external borrowings...

if obama doesn't pass this unpopular healthcare bill.... such debts will continue to balloon and in no time, their debt situation will get worst....

so, naturally, this bill calls for either more taxation at personal and/or corporate level.... but it is a bitter pill that they have to take, if they hope to ever curtail their unbalanced budget...and reduce their debts in the years ahead...

obama is foremost an economic president rather than a political president that his predecessor was...
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby lithium » Sun Apr 11, 2010 7:14 pm

so thats actually good news. And i presumed market has factored in that bill since its no longer a news? And its only a 1 time charge.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 11, 2010 7:33 pm

lithium wrote:so thats actually good news. And i presumed market has factored in that bill since its no longer a news? And its only a 1 time charge.


I guess it's always possible to put a good spin on any bad news ;)

It's good news in the long run for the country. But who really cares about 20 years from now ? In the meantime, someone has to pay higher taxes which means that there's less money for the rest of the economy.

And I'm not sure that the market has factored in the news. So far only 3 companies have taken this one time charges. Let's see how many more companies would be taking this one time charge.

If medical expenses continue to escalate, it will be an annual charge instead of a one time charge.
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby kennynah » Sun Apr 11, 2010 7:37 pm

i agree...this is part of a macroeconomic strategic plan to rein in the debts.... it will take years before we begin to see their debt level falling, if it happens at all... meanwhile, more charges will occur at corporate level and i think higher personal taxes is in the offing as well... in the past, the personal tax reduction benefited the rich and powerful more so than the commoners... but as usual, if obama is not careful, any rise in personal taxes will hit the common men more and will cost him any chance of a 2nd term...as it is, with this healthcare bill....he is already getting very unpopular
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 1 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

Postby winston » Sun Apr 11, 2010 8:15 pm

kennynah wrote:i agree...this is part of a macroeconomic strategic plan to rein in the debts.... it will take years before we begin to see their debt level falling, if it happens at all... meanwhile, more charges will occur at corporate level and i think higher personal taxes is in the offing as well...


There was some recent articles that mentioned that Value Added tax ( VAT ) could reach 20% :roll:

VAT is actually the most efficient way to collect taxes. It's based on consumption and it does not matter how you got the money in the first place eg. salary, gambling, dealing drugs, scamming, conning, cheating, ponzi scheme etc. When you buy something, you get taxed ..
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