Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 31, 2022

Bear Market Rally.jpg

Bear Market Rally?

Forward Liquidity: Decreasing?
Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Over the past few weeks, I have been mentioning that the sky still has not fallen, despite the warnings from the "bears" over the past few months.

Anyway, the "bears" continue to growl this week:-

1. Bill Dudley, Former NY Fed:- "Almost certainly there will be a full-blown recession. If we're not in one yet, I think we will be in the next 12 months."

2. Peter Schiff: The U.S. economy has been in recession all year. With yesterday's rate hike, more layoffs and inflation continuing to erode purchasing power, the recession will deepen in Q3. In fact, Q2 GDP will likely be revised even lower. The recession will deepen in Q3. The current downturn will only get worse.

And if you have been listening to the Bears over the past few months, you may want to note the following U turn:-
Big-Short Michael Burry (who was calling for the “mother of all crashes") has actually been buying during 1Q 2022. His latest 13F filing shows a broad range of new investments and some interesting strategic moves with options. That’s a significant shift from the previous quarter when Burry was selling most of his stock portfolio.

In the meantime, if you were afraid that US 2Q Earnings will be weak, you may want to note the following from Barron's:-
"According to FactSet, we are now 87% of the way through Q2 earnings season and 75% of the companies have beat expectations. Earnings grew close to 7% on the quarter, better than the 4% growth anticipated at the close of the quarter in June. Margins have come in at 12.3%. That's higher than the five year average and in line with Q1 (which was the fifth-highest profit margin for reported for S&P 500 stocks on record)".

BTW, I read an article recently that mentioned that a "Bear Market Rally" can feel quite strong and can last up to a month. From the charts, this rally is now about a month old. So are we going to hit the Resistance soon? Is this really a "Bear Market Rally" ?.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (38% from 40% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 38% (14 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 24% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$89 from US$98 last week from US$95 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas, CNOOC
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1792 from US$1764 from US$1725;
Support: 1680; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$20 from US$20 from US$18;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.55 from US$3.59 from US$3.32;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$49 from US$49 from US$47;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$23325 from US$24093 last week from US$22755 two weeks ago @ 8.53 AM on Aug 6, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Better: "Neutral 50" from "Fear 42" last week from "Fear 39" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 4145 from 4130 last week from 3962 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3800; 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Sold Twitter

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20202 from 20157 from 20609;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought CG Services
d. Traded Alibaba
e. Traded Baidu
f. Traded 3033 (HS Tech ETF)

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3227 from 3253 from 3270;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3283 from 3212 from 3181;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28176 from 27802 from 27915;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1502 from 1492 from 1466:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/2 KLK
b. Sold DNEX


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 6 @ 9.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 135 from 133 last week from 137two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 134
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.23 from 3.22 from 3.21;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.69 from 0.70 from 0.69;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weak. 1.02 from 1.02 from 1.02;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weak; 7.8502 from 7.8500 from 7.8494;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.46 from 4.45 from 4.45;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.38 from 1.38 from 1.39;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.76 from 6.74 from 6.76;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 106.62 from 105.90 from 106.78;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.83% from 2.66% from 2.81%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.23% from 2.89% from 3.02%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.33 from 96.38 from 95.09;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.04 from 78.19 from 76.99;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1560 from 1895 from 2118; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 14, 2022

buy_sell_hold (1).jpg

Another Strong Week

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates, QT versus US$1.4t Programs ie. Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

It's another week and the US markets continue to grind higher.

The 4321 level on the S&P500 (50% Fibonacci Retracement) has now been breached strongly. Technically speaking, the markets should continue to grind higher now.

In addition, some of the Fund Managers who were under-performing the markets may have to chase the markets now. And since it's summer, the low volume could lead to volatile markets. (VIX is now at a 4 month low).

For this week, we have "bubble expert" Jeremy Grantham, predicting a huge decline in stocks & bitcoin and slamming the Feds in a new interview.

However, we are also starting to see more bullish news too:-
1. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers revealed dismal consumer sentiment in July. Respondents were near record bearishness about the economy, labor, and personal finances.
2. National Federation of Independent Business: Small-business owners were at historic levels of pessimism in June.
3. Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader.com found that mentions of a “bear market rally” on the Bloomberg database were at a decade high.

In addition, JPM also came up with 10 reasons to be bullish on stocks right now:-
1. Valuations appear attractive, both in absolute terms and compared to fixed income.
2. There are elevated cash levels among institutional investors, as well as an appetite to begin putting funds to work.
3. Investor sentiment is currently too bearish (often viewed as bullish indicator for stocks).
4. Federal Reserve hawkishness has likely peaked.
5. The U.S. dollar has likely peaked for the year.
6. The economic slowdown isn't showing signs of a nasty recession.
7. Higher income consumers remain resilient.
8. Earnings estimates on the Street unlikely to be marked down aggressively.
9. Excess savings built during the pandemic are still providing a cushion to consumer spending.
10. The global economy will unlikely see a synchronized downturn.

As for myself, I dont really know where the markets are heading but I'm using the opportunity to do some selling, to raise some Cash, in case that this is really a "bear-market rally" despite the technicals breaching 4321 on the S&P 500.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (33% from 38% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 12% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 38% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 24% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 26% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$92 from US$89 last week from US$98 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Non-Opec+ increasing 1.5m bpd
h. Deficit of 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023
i. Demand: -1m (China); Supply: -2m (Russia); Balanced
g. Vested in RH Petrogas; Sold CNOOC
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1818 from US$1792 from US$1764;
Support: 1680; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$21 from US$20 from US$20;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.68 from US$3.55 from US$3.59;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$49 from US$49 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$24629 from US$23325 last week from US$24093 two weeks ago @ 11.05 AM on Aug 13, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Better: "Neutral 55" from "Neutral 50" last week from "Fear 42" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 4280 from 4145 last week from 4130 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3900; 3800; 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. SPX 4231: 50% Fibonacci
f. Sold Atria (MO)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20176 from 20202 from 20157;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought JD
d. Traded Alibaba
e. Traded Baidu
f. Traded 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
g, Sold SJM
h. Sold CNOOC
i. Sold China Mobile

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3277 from 3227 from 3253;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3269 from 3283 from 3212;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28547 from 28176 from 27802;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1506 from 1502 from 1492:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold KLK


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Aug 12 @ 7.55 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 134 from 135 last week from 133 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 134
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.24 from 3.23 from 3.22;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.71 from 0.69 from 0.70;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.03 from 1.02 from 1.02;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8356 from 7.8502 from 7.8500;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.44 from 4.46 from 4.45;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.37 from 1.38 from 1.38;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.74 from 6.76 from 6.74;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.57 from 106.62 from 105.90 from 106.78;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.87% from 2.83% from 2.66% from 2.81%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.21% from 3.23% from 2.89%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted; Recession coming?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.68 from 96.33 from 96.38;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.24 from 78.04 from 78.19;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1556 from 1560 from 1895; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 21, 2022

Buy Sell.jpg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$1.4t Stimulus ie. Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

The market is trying to grind higher while the bears' growls are also getting louder.

For this week, we have the following bearish comments:-

1. Steven Jon Kaplan, CEO True Contrarian: Get ready for the biggest selloff of this bear market yet, that is hardly over.

2. Jamie Dimon, CEO JPM: ‘Something worse’ than a recession could be coming

3. "Big Short" Michael Burry - Winter Coming:-
a. Households continue to spend as if nothing had happened
b. U.S. consumer borrowing increased by $40.2 billion in June from the prior month. This was the second-biggest increase ever.
c. Nasdaq now up 23% off its low. Congratulations, we now have the average bear market rally.
d. Across 26 bear market rallies from 1929-1932 and 2000-2002, the average is 23%.
e. After 2000, there were two 40%+ bear market rallies and one 50%+ rally before the market bottomed."

4. Ino.com: 5 Reasons To Still Be Bearish
a. There is not enough serious bullish sentiment to create a break above the 200 day moving average at this time.
b. We have an inverted yield curve which is one of the most time tested indicators of a looming recession and bear market.
c. The Fed is feeling a bit too good about the economy which they take as a green light to raise rates like crazy in coming months.
d. The weekly jobless claims reports is the leading indicator of what will happen with monthly job gains. That has been going the wrong direction since mid March.
e. This feels like the long term bear market of 2000 to 2003 that started with the popping of a valuation bubble and later had to deal with a recession.

5. Bill Bonner: We are about to experience extremely difficult times in the US, "America's Nightmare Winter". This is the fourth big macroeconomic prediction of my career. It's my "4th and Final Warning."

Luckily, there was a rare upbeat comment from Moneywise:-
a. The average U.S. corporation’s after-tax profit margin is around 16% right now. In traditional recessions, this rate drops down to single digits
b. Meanwhile, these corporations are collectively sitting on over $4 trillion in cash. That’s a record level and also highly unusual for a recessionary environment
c. This could be an ideal time to bet on beaten-down growth and tech stocks if a soft landing occurs.
d. However, in a hard landing, investors may need to take refuge in asset-backed defensive stocks like Healthcare companies and REITs

There were also a lot of discussions this week, about the Fed's bluff, in it's fight on inflation. Barron's summarized things as follows:-
a. U.S. debt as a percent of GDP has doubled since the Great Financial Crisis
b. If the Fed were to raise rates by 600 basis points, to the level of current inflation, the annual interest we have to pay on our debt would balloon to over $1.5 trillion (from the current $400 billion) and this will not happen.

As for myself, I'm trying to stay the course. I'm forcing myself to buy on any steep dip and I'm also forcing myself to sell on any rip. (In this type of market, it's very easy to do nothing. And if I have not done anything over the past month, I would have missed one of the biggest rally in recent times).

For next week, the Central Banksters are meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Aug 25-27. I'm not expecting much from that meeting unless the messaging from that meeting, starts to confuse the market. In addition, the Central Banksters will also be probably rolling out regulations on Cryptos. Hence, the big drop in Bitcoin on Friday.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (34% from 33% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 12% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 43% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 23% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$90 from US$92 last week from US$89 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 15%? 1.8m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Non-Opec+ increasing 1.5m bpd
h. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
i. Demand: -1m (China); Supply: -2m (Russia); Balanced?
g. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1761 from US$1818 last week from US$1792 two weeks ago;
Support: 1680; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$19 from US$21 from US$20;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.67 from US$3.68 from US$3.55;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$49 from US$49 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$21289 from US$24629 last week from US$23325 two weeks ago @ 4.30 AM on Aug 20, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Crypto Regulations to be rolled out at Jackson Hole next week?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Neutral 51" from "Neutral 55" last week from "Neutral 50" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 4228 from 4280 last week from 4145 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3900; 3800; 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Went thru SPX 4231: 50% Fibonacci Retracement
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19773 from 20176 from 20202;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Baidu (included in Hang Seng Index on Sep 5)
d. Bought 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Bought Meituan
f. Traded JD
g. Sold CG Services

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3258 from 3277 from 3227;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. Drought - electricity generation affected
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3244 from 3269 from 3283;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28930 from 28547 from 28176;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1506 from 1502 from 1492:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold BAT


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 19 @ 11.55 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 136 from 134 last week from 135
a. 52 week range is 76 to 137
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.23 from 3.24 from 3.23;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.69 from 0.71 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.68 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.01 from 1.03 from 1.02;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8467 from 7.8356 from 7.8502;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.48 from 4.44 from 4.46;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.39 from 1.37 from 1.38;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.81 from 6.74 from 6.76;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 107.63 from 105.57 from 106.62;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.87% from 2.83% from 2.66% from 2.81%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.21% from 3.23% from 2.89%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted; Recession coming?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.09 from 96.68 from 96.33;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.74 from 78.24 from 78.04;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1320 from 1556 from 1560; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 80% inflation at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 28, 2022

September.jpg

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

New Money From The New Month

It would be a new month soon and new money would again be flowing into the markets. Therefore, we should see a spike in the markets next week. Thereafter, I think that things could be a bit weak unless there's a major catalyst that can change the market's direction.

The markets were actually doing quite well until Powell spoke. It's as if he's trying to talk the markets down, hoping that it would remove some inflation.

At the same time, there was also no "valid reason" for the markets to be so strong on the Thursday before his speech.

Anyway, for this week, we continue to have some more bearish comments:-
1. French President Macron: "End Of Abundance", "Major Tipping Point" And "Great Upheaval", as difficult winter approaches
2. Greg Jensen, CIO Bridgewater Associates: Equities facing significant drop to align them with the real economy. Asset markets will decline from 20% to 25%
3. Subramanian, Head of US Equity, BOA: Reasons to be bullish are ‘pretty thin’
4. RBC: A group of the most popular stocks owned by the world’s largest hedge funds are starting to underperform the broader market once again

As for myself, I managed to sell some shares on Thursday when the HK market rallied on some stimulus news by China, as well as some supposedly progress on the "delisting issue of Chinese ADRs".

My exposure to Equities is now down to 30% from about 40% a few weeks ago. I intend to bring it down further if the opportunity presents itself.

At the same time, I will still try to force myself to buy on any steep dips although it's starting to be more and more difficult to do so. There are so many bad news out there and you would need some "nerves of steel" to be able to do so.

Every "Tom, d**k and Harry" in the market knows that:-
1. the global economy is weak
2. inflation is high
3. interest rates will need to go much higher to fight inflation
4. the USD will be much stronger as rates goes up further
5. commodities will drop in price from the high USD
6. demand for Commodities would be decreasing from the weak economies
7. revenue, earnings and margins of Corporations, are declining
8. Europe's energy crisis will be much worse when winter arrives
9. Powell cant raise interest rates too high due to the high US debt
etc.

So I need to remind myself to be a bit more careful if I start to think that I know everything.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (30% from 34% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 13% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 30% (9 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 31% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 26% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$93 from US$90 last week from US$92 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 15%? 1.8m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022; 450m barrels left
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Non-Opec+ increasing 1.5m bpd
h. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
i. Demand: -1m (China); Supply: -2m (Russia); Balanced?
g. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1751 from US$1761 last week from US$1818 two weeks ago;
Support: 1680; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$19 from US$19 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.70 from US$3.67 from US$3.68;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$49 from US$49 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$20268 from US$21289 last week from US$24629 two weeks ago @ 10.08 AM on Aug 27, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Crypto Regulations to be rolled out at Jackson Hole next week?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Fear 44" from "Neutral 51" last week from "Neutral 55" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 4058 from 4228 last week from 4280 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3900; 3800; 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Went thru SPX 4231: 50% Fibonacci Retracement
g. Bought Grab
h. Traded SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20170 from 19773 from 20176;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Baidu (included in Hang Seng Index on Sep 5)
d. Sold 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Sold Meituan
f. Sold JD
g. Sold AIA
h. Sold Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3250 from 3236 from 3258;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. Drought - electricity generation affected
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3244 from 3269 from 3283;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28641 from 28930 from 28547;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1500 from 1506 from 1502:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 27 @ 10.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 138 from 136 last week from 134 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 137
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.21 from 3.23 from 3.24;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weak; 0.69 from 0.69 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.68 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.00 from 1.01 from 1.03;
a. Energy Crisis; Winter is coming soon
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weak; 7.8467 from 7.8467 from 7.8356;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weak; 4.47 from 4.48 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weak; 1.39 from 1.39 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.87 from 6.81 from 6.74;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 108.80 from 107.63 from 105.57;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.03% from 2.87% from 2.83%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.38% from 3.21% from 3.23%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted; Recession coming?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.59 from 96.09 from 96.68;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.81 from 77.74 from 78.24;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1082 from 1320 from 1556; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 80% inflation at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 4, 2022

Water Torture.jpg

Water Torture?

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).
Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

The markets have been trickling down for the past week and even with the new money from the new month, there was no noticeable spike.

That means that things are "softer" than expected. So maybe all the bearish comments over the past few weeks is starting to sink in.

In addition, a lot of people are also on vacation and they dont want to have a huge trading position while they are on vacation.

Anyway, the following are some bearish comments for this week:-

1. "Big Short" Michael Burry: And yet I keep getting asked 'when crash?

2. Richard Harris; CEO, Port Shelter: As inflation sticks and recession hits, prepare for five years of hard times

3. Dan Suzuki, Deputy CIO, Richard Bernstein: In seven of the last 10 bear markets, it has been better to be late than early

4. Mike Wilson, CIO, Morgan Stanley: Jackson Hole was a shock to stock investors but it's just the start of the next leg lower

5. Jeremy Grantham, GMO: We’re still in the middle of a ‘superbubble’ that hasn’t popped yet:-
a. First, the bubble forms
b. Second, a setback occurs, as it just did in the first half of this year, when some wrinkle in the economic or political environment causes investors to realize that perfection will, after all, not last forever and valuations take a half-step back
c. Then, there is what we have just seen—the bear market rally
d. Fourth and finally, fundamentals deteriorate and the market declines to a low.

As for myself, I still see it as a "Trading Market". I'm still buying on steep dips and selling into strong rallies. However, I'm also starting to be wary of the weak sentiment and bearish comments.

I'm also going for a short vacation in about two weeks and I should remind myself to not have a big trading position when I'm not watching the markets.

For next week, we have the iphone 14 launch on Sept 7th. I think it's well broadcasted already so will probably be a non-event.

At this point in time, the traders are focusing on the Inflation numbers on Sept 13th and the Interest Rates Hike on Sept 21st.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (35% from 30% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 12% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 33% (11 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 25% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$87 from US$93 last week from US$90 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 15%? 1.8m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022; 450m barrels left
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Non-Opec+ increasing 1.5m bpd
h. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
i. Demand: -1m (China); Supply: -2m (Russia); Balanced?
g. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1723 from US$1751 from US$1761 ;
Support: 1680; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$18 from US$19 from US$19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.40 from US$3.70 from US$3.67;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$53 from US$49 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$19923 from US$20268 last week from US$21289 two weeks ago @ 6.41 AM on Sep 3, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Crypto Regulations to be rolled out at Jackson Hole next week?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Fear 41" from "Fear 44" last week from "Neutral 51" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3924 from 4058 last week from 4228 from two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3900; 3800; 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 18
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Went thru SPX 4231: 50% Fibonacci Retracement
g. Bought SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19452 from 20170 from 19773;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought AIA
d. Bought Alibaba
e. Bought Meituan
f. Traded Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3186 from 3250 from 3236;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. Drought - electricity generation affected
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3206 from 3244 from 3269;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27651 from 28641 from 28930;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1491 from 1500 from 1506:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to IGB
b. Bought SNS


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 2 @ 9.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 140 from 138 last week from 136 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 137
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.20 from 3.21 from 3.23;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.68 from 0.69 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.68 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weak; 1.00 from 1.00 from 1.01;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8490 from 7.8467 from 7.8467;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.48 from 4.47 from 4.48;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.40 from 1.39 from 1.39;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.90 from 6.87 from 6.81;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 109.19 from 108.80 from 107.63;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.23% from 3.03% from 2.87%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.42% from 3.38% from 3.21%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted; Recession coming?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 92.15 from 93.59 from 96.09;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.36 from 75.81 from 77.74;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1002 from 1082 from 1320; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 80% inflation at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?


TOL @ Sep 9, 2022

Trading Break.jpg

Trading Break

I will be going on a short holiday so I'm sending out my "Weekly Investment Blog" early this week.

As mentioned last week, the traders are focusing on the Inflation numbers on Sept 13th and thereafter, the interest rates hike on Sept 21st.

The current view is that since oil has dropped in price, the inflation numbers will be decreasing on Sept 13th. Hence, only a 50 bps hike is expected on Sept 21st.

This will supposedly be good for stocks but if everyone is expecting this, why would the markets go up on Sep 13th and Sep 21st?

BTW, there was a very good article on the "Buffett Indicator" in "Investor Place" and I'm reproducing some of the points below:-
1. The “Buffett Indicator” is the total value of public equities divided by a country’s GDP. Think of it as a “price-to-sales” ratio for an entire country.
2. As of last week, with the aggregate U.S. market value at $43.4 trillion and the Annualized GDP at $24.9 trillion, the indicator clocked in at 173%.
3. That is currently 36% (or about 1.0 standard deviations) above the historical average, suggesting that the market is Overvalued.
4. For a bit more context, the average since 1995 is 109%.
5. So, despite the losses on the year, stocks remain overvalued by this metric.
6. In late 2021, this indicator topped a 2X standard deviation level (an all-time-high), which was on par with levels seen only during the Internet Bubble (dating back to 1950).
7. Now, this alone isn’t a reason to bail on the stock market. After all, the Buffett Indicator has been in overvalued territory for years. Had you used it as a driver of being “in” or “out” of the market, you would have missed out on great returns last decade.
8. So, it’s better used as an incredibly blunt tool that gives us an overall sense of valuation rather than a precise tool that would help us with market timing. But that doesn’t mean it’s not helpful.
Bottom line: Though not a timing tool, the Buffett Indicator is in bearish territory today.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (40% from 35% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 10% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 39% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 28% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 23% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Investing.com on Sep 9 @ 2.45 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$84 from US$87 last week from US$93 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 15%? 1.8m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022; 450m barrels left
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Non-Opec+ increasing 1.5m bpd
h. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
i. Demand: -1m (China); Supply: -2m (Russia); Balanced?
g. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1733 from US$1723 from US$1751;
Support: 1680; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$19 from US$18 from US$19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.61 from US$3.40 from US$3.70;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$52 from US$53 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$20666 from US$19923 last week from US$20268 two weeks ago @ 2.55 PM on Sep 9, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Crypto Regulations to be rolled out at Jackson Hole next week?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of 5pm on Sep 9, 2022)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Better: "Fear 42" from "Fear 41" last week from "Fear 44" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 4006 from 3924 last week from 4058 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3900; 3800; 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 18
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Traded GRAB

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19392 from 19452 from 20170;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Baidu
d. Bought Fosun Pharma
e. Bought 3033 (Tech ETF)
f. Bought Geely
g. Bought Vitasoy
h. Sold Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3262 from 3186 from 3250;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. Drought - electricity generation affected
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3206 from 3244 from 3269;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28215 from 27651 from 28641;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1497 from 1491 from 1500:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to MYEG
b. Added to Destini
c. Traded SNS


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 9 @ 2.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 143 from 140 last week from 138 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 145
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.21 from 3.20 from 3.21;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weak; 0.68 from 0.68 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.68 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.01 from 1.00 from 1.00;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8690 from 7.8490 from 7.8467;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.51 from 4.48 from 4.47;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weak; 1.40 from 1.40 from 1.39;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.96 from 6.90 from 6.87;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 108.94 from 109.19 from 108.80;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.30% from 3.23% from 3.03%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.50% from 3.42% from 3.38%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted; Recession coming?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.95 from 92.15 from 93.59;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 75.51 from 74.36 from 75.81;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1178 from 1002 from 1082; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 80% inflation at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

TOL @ Sep 18, 2022

Storm.jpg

Gloom & Doom?

I'm back from my mini vacation and feeling refreshed.

However, when I'm back to my routine of reading the business news again, I cant help but be dragged down by the gloom and doom.

Every single "expert" this week is bearish including:-
1. Art Cashin, MD UBS: Markets could retest June lows and warns investors to beware the autumnal equinox
2. Ray Dalio, Founder Bridgewater: Interest rates at 4.5% would sink stocks by 20%
3. Stanley Druckenmiller, Chairman Duquesne Capital: There's a high probability of the stock market being flat for a decade
4. Barron's: Every 100 basis points by the Fed, adds another $285 billion annually to an already bloated U.S. deficit

It's getting more and more difficult to look for the light at the end of the tunnel. And if you do see the light, how sure are you that it's not a train heading towards you?

Things cant be that that bad, right? There must be areas that you can hunker down for a year or two, while the hurricane or super-hurricane passes. Didn't someone say that there's always a bull-market somewhere?

Anyway, the following are some of my random thoughts:-
1. Singapore Equities: Haven't being able to find any good investment idea for ages
2. Tech (US & China): Revenue & EPS to grind lower for the next few quarters
3. Malaysia: Caution before election; Retail players have disappeared; No more animal spirits; Where are the Election plays?
4. Properties: Rising interest rates, Economic Slowdown
5. Commodities: High USD; Economic Slowdown; Muted Speculation;
6. VIX, Short-Selling, Inverse ETFs: Range Low; Whipsaw Danger

For weeks, I have not been able to find a sector that I really like, where the fundamentals are still good and the valuation is fair.

Every single sector seems to have some issues and problems. And the Risk vs Reward does not seemed to be in the Investor's favor.

I'm also starting to think that the markets are now uninvestable unless there's a very steep drop.

Maybe we will get that steep drop next week when they announce the interest rates rise of either 75 bps or 100 bps. However, my gut feel is saying the opposite. Let's see how it goes. In the meantime, I'm just watching and waiting and watching...


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (37% from 40% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 41% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 23% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Investing.com on Sep 17 @ 6.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$85 from US$84 last week from US$87 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 15%? 1.8m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Non-Opec+ increasing 1.5m bpd
h. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
i. Demand: -1m (China); Supply: -2m (Russia); Balanced?
g. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1685 from US$1733 from US$1723;
Support: 1680; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$20 from US$19 from US$18;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.54 from US$3.61 from US$3.40;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$50 from US$52 from US$53;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$19734 from US$20666 last week from US$19923 two weeks ago @ 6.07 AM on Sep 17, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Crypto Regulations to be rolled out at Jackson Hole next week?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of 5pm on Sep 9, 2022)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Fear 36" from "Fear 42" last week from "Fear 41" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3873 from 4006 last week from 3924 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3800; 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18762 from 19392 from 19452;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3126 from 3262 from 3186;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. Drought - electricity generation affected
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3268 from 3206 from 3244;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27568 from 28215 from 27651;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1467 from 1497 from 1491:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/3 Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 17 @ 8.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weak; 143 from 143 last week from 140 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 145
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.21 from 3.20 from 3.21;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weak; 0.68 from 0.68 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.68 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.01 from 1.00 from 1.00;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8496 from 7.8690 from 7.8490;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.54 from 4.51 from 4.48;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.55
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.41 from 1.40 from 1.40;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.98 from 6.96 from 6.90;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 109.76 from 108.94 from 109.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.46% from 3.30% from 3.23%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.87% from 3.50% from 3.42%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian trims key rate to 7.5%,
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted; Recession coming?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.31 from 92.95 from 92.15;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 74.20 from 75.51 from 74.36;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1553 from 1178 from 1002; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 80% inflation at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 25, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Right.jpg

What Can Go Right?

The markets have been weak for a few weeks now.

And every day, you have a few more bears telling you that things are not that great. These bearish comments are starting to be not so useful and I will not be summarizing them for you this week.

Instead, I will think about what can go right for the market as I think that the markets are quite oversold and there could be some trading opportunities:-
1. 3Q Window Dressing; Sep 30, 2022; 40% chance
2. US Sept CPI - better than expected; Oct 13, 2022; 60% chance
3. China People Party's Congress - stimulus; Oct 16, 2022: 70% chance
4. China Zero Covid Policy - muting; 4Q 2022; 60% chance
5. China Tech Regulatory Issues - muting; 4Q 2022; 60% chance
6. Delisting of US ADRs 2024 - agreement; 3Q 2023; 70% chance
7. Iran Agreement; 1H 2023; 40% chance
8. Ukraine War - ending; 1H 2023; 50% chance
9. Interest Rates & USD - peaking; Every 100 bps rise cost US$280b; 3Q 2023; 65% chance
10. 3Q Earnings Season - better than expected; > Oct 14th 2022; 70% chance
11. Short Covering of HK Shares; Short Selling of 2800 at 55%; 4Q 2022; 60% chance
12. Supply Chain Improvement; 1H 2023; 60% chance
13. Increased Liquidity (summer over); 4Q 2022; 70% chance
14. US Stimulus (US$2t announced); 1H 2023; 70% chance
15. China Stimulus & RRR cut; 1H 2023; 80% chance
16. QE Continuation; Europe & Japan; 1H 2023; 70% chance
17. Crypto Regulation; Fund Flow back into "real economy"; 1H 2023; 60% chance
18. Macau Reopening; 4Q 2022; 65% chance
19. HK Reopening; 4Q 2022; 70% chance

From the above, I should remind myself to be not so bearish. There are some opportunities out there and I should keep my watchlist up-to-date and to start thinking of deploying some of the Cash.

The markets could start to rally quite soon due to;-
1. "3Q Window Dressing" on Sep 30th
2. "New money from the new month of October" - early Oct
3. "Sep CPI Statistics" on Oct 13th
4. 3Q Earnings Season from Oct 14th

In addition, the shorts have also already made some good money and are now probably thinking of covering their position before the above events.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (39% from 37% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 24% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 21% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Investing.com on Sep 17 @ 6.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$79 from US$85 last week from US$84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m (36%) of Supply are affected?
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
h. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1652 from US$1685 from US$1733;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$19 from US$20 from US$19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.35 from US$3.54 from US$3.61;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Demand: +25% over next 10 years
b. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
c. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
d. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$50 from US$50 from US$52;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$19092 from US$19734 last week from US$20666 two weeks ago @ 2.47 PM on Sep 24, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War; Iranian Sanction;
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of 5pm on Sep 9, 2022)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Extreme Fear 24" from "Fear 36" last week from "Fear 42" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3693 from 3873 last week from 4006 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17933 from 18762 from 19392;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought JD.com
d. Bought Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3088 from 3126 from 3262;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. Drought - electricity generation affected
e. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3227 from 3268 from 3206;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27154 from 27568 from 28215;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1425 from 1467 from 1497:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Sep 23 @ 10.08 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 142 from 143 last week from 143 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 145
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.22 from 3.21 from 3.20;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.68 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 0.98 from 1.01 from 1.00;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8495 from 7.8496 from 7.8690;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.57 from 4.54 from 4.51;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.58
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.42 from 1.41 from 1.40;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.09 from 6.98 from 6.96;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 111.28 from 109.76 from 108.94;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.72% from 3.46% from 3.30%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.12% from 3.87% from 3.50%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession coming?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 89.95 from 91.31 from 92.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 73.06 from 74.20 from 75.51;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1720 from 1553 from 1178; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 2, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

Right 2.jpg

What Can Go Right (Part 2)

Last week, I listed 19 reasons to remind myself to be not so bearish.

Things can go from "Gloom" to "Boom" in a very quickly as seen by the spike in the Macau Casinos last Monday.

On #18 of my list last week, I was thinking of the Reopening of Macau. Just the next day, the Macau Casinos were flying around 15% when the Macau government announced that Chinese Group Tours can resume in November.

This is a good reminder for me that things dont have to move in a straight line. It can gap up 15% and you can miss the boat if you dont have a position before the news.

For this week, I'm adding two more reasons to my list last week:-

1. Cash on Sidelines
In the US, there is currently about US$5t of Cash in Money Market Funds. There's also another US$18t in Fixed Deposits. In comparison, the market cap of the US markets is only about US$44t. If there's a strong catalyst, the markets can gap up very quickly.

2. VIX/VIX3M is > 1
Under normal conditions, the VIX/VIX3M will have a value of less than 1.
But when traders are anxious about an immediate market drop, the value will rise above 1. This shows higher anxiety for the next 30 days compared to 90 days. This is used as a Contrarian Indicator by some traders.

3. 3Q Window Dressing Is Over
Some "experts" have mentioned that the market was weak because of 3Q Window Dressing. As the quarter was quite weak, some Fund Managers may have unloaded some of their weaker holdings to show lesser exposure to those Equities. Now that the quarter is over, they may now be buying back those Equities for the new quarter.

Finally, for this week, I will be watching the following:-
1. New Money from the new month; There should be a spike early next week.
2. Oct 5: OPEC+ Meeting; Expecting them to cut 1m bpd


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (41% from 39% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 13% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 43% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 23% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Investing.com on Sep 17 @ 6.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$80 from US$79 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Oct 1, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
h. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1668 from US$1652 from US$1685;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$19 from US$19 from US$20;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.39 from US$3.35 from US$3.54;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$49 from US$50 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$19308 from US$19092 last week from US$19734 two weeks ago @ 4.06 PM on Oct 1, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War; Iranian Sanction;
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Worse: "Extreme Fear 15" from "Extreme Fear 24" last week from "Fear 36" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Lower; 3586 from 3693 last week from 3873 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Current PE 18; Forward PE 15
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 29; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Traded XLE (Energy ETF)
g. Traded URA (Uranium ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17223 from 17933 from 18762;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded JD.com
d. Traded Standard Chartered
e. Traded Meituan
f. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
g. Added to Geely

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3024 from 3088 from 3126;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3130 from 3227 from 3268;
Resistance 3850
a. Bought SATS

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 25937 from 27154 from 27568;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1395 from 1425 from 1467:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 1 @ 4.16 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 145 from 142 last week from 143 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 146
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.24 from 3.22 from 3.21;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.66 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weak; 0.98 from 0.98 from 1.01;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8499 from 7.8495 from 7.8496;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.64 from 4.57 from 4.54;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.65
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.44 from 1.42 from 1.41;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.18 from 7.09 from 6.98;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 112.12 from 111.28 from 109.76;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.83% from 3.72% from 3.46%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.27% from 4.12% from 3.87%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 87.85 from 89.95 from 91.31;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 71.39 from 73.06 from 74.20;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1760 from 1720 from 1553; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 9, 2022

Forward Liquidity: Mixed?
Rising Rates & QT versus US$2t Stimulus ie. Student Debt (US$500b), Chips Act (US$280b), PACT Act (US$400b) and Inflation Reduction Act (US$740b).

Forward Earnings: Decreasing?

buy_sell_hold (1).jpg

Buy, Sell or Hold?

The markets were extremely strong at the beginning of the week and it probably rose on a combination of factors including:-
1. Short Covering
2. Fund Managers buying back some of their positions that were sold for 3Q Window Dressing
3. New money from the new month
4. Oversold markets

And if one has been observing the markets recently, it's so funny to watch the various players:-
1. UK's Kwasi Kwarteng U-Turned on the country's top rate of income tax
2. Bank of England pledge to buy up to £65 billion ($73 billion) in bonds when the GBP and UK bonds crashed
3. The S&P 500 recovered it's drop on just a US$30m Call Options trade on Wednesday
4. Powell trying to talk down Demand and Employment as if he has a lot of room left to push up interest rates
5. The various bears being extremely quiet on Monday and Tuesday when the S&P 500 rose 5.5%
6. OPEC+ cutting 2m bpd despite the "warning" by the US

On hindsight, when the market rose on Monday & Tuesday, that was a very good time to fade that move. Fortunately, I did managed to sell a bit of my positions and I'm now trying to buy them back at a lower price.

I still think that this is a "Trading Market" so will continue to buy on any steep dips and hopefully, will be able to sell them on the rips like Monday and Tuesday.

I still dont think it's a "Buy & Hold" market yet, so the sleeping pigs would probably be slaughtered.

And talking of being slaughtered, I need to remind myself of the "4 Horsemen of Losses":-
1. Fear
2. Greed
3. Arrogance
4. Ignorance

Reminding myself of these 4 Horsemen over the years, has always kept me away from some huge losses.

BTW, if something seems "obvious" in the markets, it is probably time to step aside and to review that position. The markets will always fatten one up first before the slaughter. Recent examples include:-
1. Oil crashing to US$19 in April 2020
2. Bitcoin crashing from US$67000 when there were predictions of US$1m by 2030
3. Semiconductors crashing when the "experts' were still predicting shortages
4. Palm Oil crashing from MYR 7000
5. Tech crashing in both China and the US
6. Glovemakers crashing while Covid19 was still around

Finally, we have the following events next week:-
1. Oct 13: US CPI numbers
2. Oct 14: Start of US 3Q Earnings
3. Oct 16: China People's Party Congress


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (37% from 41% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 35% (14 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 21% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Investing.com on Oct 8 @ 10.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$93 from US$80 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the global demand destruction? 15%? 15m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months; Expiring Nov, 2022; Released 25% (160 m barrels); 450m barrels left; Up to 10m barrels in Nov 2022;
f. No spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and UAE
g. Deficit of 1 to 2m bpd in 2022 and 2023?
h. Venezuela Sanctions to be lifted?
i. OPEC+ to cut 2m bpd; How will the US punish them?
j. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1702 from US$1668 from US$1652;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and a Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$20 from US$19 from US$19;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.38 from US$3.39 from US$3.35;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. How bad is the global slowdown?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for an operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$49 from US$49 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 53; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. Droughts in Europe affecting Nuclear Energy generation?
Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$19516 from US$19308 last week from US$19092 two weeks ago @ 3.00 PM on Oct 10, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War; Iranian Sanction;
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Better: "Extreme Fear 22" from "Extreme Fear 15" last week from "Extreme Fear 24" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

1. US Equities - Higher; 3640 from 3586 last week from 3693 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4375; 4750
b. S&P 500: Current PE 18; Forward PE 15
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 29; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 21;
f. Traded TSLA

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17740 from 17223 from 17933;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded JD.com
d. Traded 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Traded Geely
f. Sold Meituan
g. Sold Baidu
h. Sold Alibaba
i. Sold CICC
j. Sold 1/2 China Merchants Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Closed; 3024 from 3024 from 3088;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Zero-Covid policy
d. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3146 from 3130 from 3227;
Resistance 3850
a. Sold SATS

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27116 from 25937 from 27154;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Not vested

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1406 from 1395 from 1425:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Destini
b. Sold MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 10 @ 3.16 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weak; 145 from 145 last week from 142 two weeks ago
a. Range is 76 to 146
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Strong; 3.24 from 3.24 from 3.22;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weak; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 0.97 from 0.98 from 0.98;
a. Energy Issues
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weak; 7.8499 from 7.8499 from 7.8495;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.65 from 4.64 from 4.57;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.65
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.43 from 1.44 from 1.42;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out.
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.12 from 7.18 from 7.09;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 112.80 from 112.12 from 111.28;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
d. Supportive programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. GS predicted HK properties to drop 30% in 2 years
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. New property curbs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.89% from 3.83% from 3.72%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.31% from 4.27% from 4.12%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p22167

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 88.57 from 87.85 from 89.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 72.12 from 71.39 from 73.06;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1961 from 1760 from 1720; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics