Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ May 26, 2024

Complacency.jpeg

Complacent Markets?

The markets have been grinding higher for the past month and people have been behaving as if the "good times" can last forever.

For the US market, the earning season is winding down and there's no other catalyst on the horizon to prop things up except for the anticipated 25 bps rates reduction on Sept 18th. Summer travel is also here and trading volume would probably be getting lighter from here.

For the HK market, I have been calling for a correction as it has gone up too much and too fast for the past month. So far, it has only corrected about 1000 points after rising 3500 points in 4 weeks. I'm slowly buying back the HK stocks that I have sold. The support for the HK market seems to be around 17,600 which is about a 1000 points drop from here.

For the Malaysian market, I'm focusing on the bigger counters only. I'm avoiding the smaller companies as I'm not too confident that the smaller companies can survive any hard times. SNAFU?

To frighten you a bit, I will quote what Bill Smead this week:-
"Stocks are 'going nowhere' for the next decade as inflation sticks around and US debt balloons".
a. The stock market will see dismal returns for the next 10-15 years
b. Bill also warned that inflation will likely stick around over the long term
c. That could produce a situation similar to the 1970s, when soaring prices led to a "dead zone" for stocks.

And to have a balanced picture, I will quote Morgan Stanley's Bill Wilson, one of Wall Street’s most prominent bears:-
a. Bill has just turned positive about the outlook for US stocks
b. He now sees the S&P 500 rising 2% by June 2025, a major about-turn from his view that the benchmark will tumble 15% by Dec 2024
c. The strategist's bearish 2023 outlook failed to materialized as markets kept rallying
d. Finally, he gave in and boosted his target for the S&P 500 to 5,400 from 4,500

For next week, I'm not expecting much for the US market. As for HK, I'm expecting it to be a bit weak until we reach around 17600, from the current 18600.

Having said the above, if there's a serious dip for any "brand-name" counter, I would probably investigate it and then decide on whether there's an opportunity to trade it for a 1/3 retracement.

My gut feel is that it's better to be a bit more careful and to keep a higher level cash at this point in time.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (35% from 30% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 45% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 40% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of May 24, 2024 @ 9.11 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$80 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower. US$2345 from US$2400 last week from US$2357 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.79 from US$5.02 from US$4.62;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$92 from US$91 last week from US$94 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$67,302 from US$66,438 lzst week from US$62,868 two weeks ago @ 9.16 PM on May 24, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "53 Neutral" from "65 Greed" last week from "48 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Flat; 5305 from 5303 last week from 5223 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Workday

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18609 from 19554 from 18,476;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Alibaba
e. Traded Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3089 from 3154 from 3105;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38646 from 38787 from 38236;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1619 from 1617 from 1590:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought YTL Power


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 25 @ 8.05 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 157 from 156 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.48 from 3.48 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8123 from 7.8018 from 7.8155;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.70 from 4.69 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.24 from 7.23 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.65 from 104.53 last week from 105.20 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.47% from 4.40% from 4.46%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.95% from 4.80% from 4.82%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.28 from 94.47 from 94.24;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.09 from 77.27 from 77.02;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1796 from 1817 from 2166; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back.

[winston]

TOL @ June 02, 2024

June.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets early next week. Thereafter, I think that the markets will not be going anywhere until 2H Window Dressing Season begins.

For the US markets, they are now talking of an interest rates cut on Jul 31st and Sep 18th. The US economy is not doing too well and the warning signs are there eg. delinquent credit cards, poor retail sales, weak manufacturing numbers, struggling Dow Transport stocks etc. You can read more on the various warning signs in the link below:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

For the HK & China markets, there were some ETF outflows recently. As mentioned, I think that the first support for the HK market is around 17600, which is only about 400 points away. I have started to slowly replenish my inventory for the HK markets. I dont want to be buying too soon but I dont want to also have no inventory either if it starts to move upwards suddenly.

For the HK market, I still see a lot of Leveraged Call Warrants from 16,000 points That's a bit worrying as the Investment Banks have a very strong incentive to bring the Hang Seng down to below 16,000 points over the next 12 months. At the same time, the long funds are quite underweight HK & China and may be forced to increase their weighting whenever it dips.

For this week, there were a lot of bearish comments including the following:-
1. Strategas
a. Potential pullback in the S&P 500 this June, driven by a temporary liquidity drain of about US$130b.
b. The drain is due to a mix of factors, including changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and increased T-bill issuance.

2. John Hussman
a. The S&P 500 could plunge as much as 70% this cycle as markets hit a 'motherlode' of FOMO extremes
b. His firm's most reliable indicator now exceeds 1929 extremes.
c. A combination of red-flag factors include overextended valuations, divergence among individual stock sectors and lopsided sentiment
d. Another point of caution is the growing group of stocks hitting fresh 52-week lows, even as indexes themselves skyrocket.

For next week, I dont see much happening so it may be a good time to take a trading break. I was supposed to take a trading break about two weeks ago but ended up doing a bit of trading when I saw some trading opportunities.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (40% from 31% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 41% (9 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of June 01, 2024 @ 6.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$77 from US$77 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Flat. US$2347 from US$2345 last week from US$2400 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.63 from US$4.79 from US$5.02;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$90 from US$92 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$68,298 from US$67,302 last week from US$66,438 two weeks ago @ 2.45 PM on May 31, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "48 Neutral" from "53 Neutral" last week from "65 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5278 from 5305 last week from 5303 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18609 from 19554 from 18,476;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Netease
e. Bought Meituan
f. Added to JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3089 from 3154 from 3105;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38646 from 38787 from 38236;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1619 from 1617 from 1590:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded Lagenda
c. Sold YTL Power


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 31 @ 2.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.48 from 3.48 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8180 from 7.8123 from 7.8018;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.70 from 4.70 from 4.69;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.24 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.77 from 104.65 last week from 104.53 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.50% from 4.47% from 4.40%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.88% from 4.95% from 4.80%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.95 from 94.28 from 94.47;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.86 from 77.09 from 77.27;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1801 from 1796 from 1817; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 09, 2024

Buy Sell Hold.jpeg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

After the initial spike at the beginning of the week (from the new money of the new month?), the markets didnt go anywhere thereafter.

One can also feel the "Sentiments" weakening and people are no longer willing to chase the hot stories.

If one is a "pure" trader, one would probably be not in this type of market.

Anyway, the following are some bearish news from UBS, who mentioned that six out of eight warning signs of a bubble have already flashed:-
1. The end of a structural bull market - Flashed
2. When profits are under pressure - Flashed
3. Large loss of breadth - Flashed
4. Needs a 25-year gap from the prior bubble - Flashed
5. Has a 25-year gap from prior bubble - Flashed
6. Retail starts to participate aggressively - Flashed
7. Monetary policy being too loose - Hasn't flashed
8. Extended period of limited declines - Hasn't flashed
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

At the same time, Goldman Sachs is still bullish on the markets for the following reasons:-
1. A flood of cash from passive equity allocations in early July
2. Share prices should benefit from strong seasonal trends and
3. Rising engagement from retail investors

If the "experts" like UBS and GS, cannot agree on the direction of the markets, what chance does a mere mortal like me has, in trying to decide on whether to Sell, Hold or Buy?

Anyway, for the US markets, I'm continuing with my strategy of buying oversold counters for the 1/3 retracement.

For HK, the "Issuers of the Leveraged Call Warrants" have an incentive to push the index down while the "Long Funds" who are underweight the HK & China markets, are trying to increase their position. This "tug of war" situation in HK will be good for the nimble traders.

For Malaysia, I do not have a big position as I cant seemed to find any good convincing story.

My exposure to Equities has been steadily increasing and I should remind myself to be a bit more careful. Whenever I see a 'bargain", I have a tendency to buy it without reflecting on the big picture ie. fundamentals are actually deteriorating.

For next week, I think that it will be the "same old, same old" again. I thought that I would be having a 'Trading Break" this week but I ended up doing quite a bit of trading in HK. Maybe I will get my "Trading Break" next week.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (44% from 40% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 45% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 40% (9 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of June 01, 2024 @ 6.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75 from US$77 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower. US$2311 from US$2347 last week from US$2345 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$29 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.45 from US$4.63 from US$4.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$87 from US$90 last week from US$92 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$69,379 from US$68,298 last week from US$67,302 two weeks ago @ 7.30 AM on June 8, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "45 Neutral" from "53 Neutral" last week from "65 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5278 from 5305 last week from 5303 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5400
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought DELL

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18367 from 18609 from 19554;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Lenovo
e. Bought ASM Pacific
f. Bought 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
g. Traded JD
h. Traded VitaSoy
i. Sold NetEase


3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3051 from 3089 from 3154;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. Bought 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) in HK

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38684 from 38646 from 38787;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1618 from 1619 from 1617:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold YNH


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 8 @ 7.50 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160

b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.47 from 3.48 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8135 from 7.8180 from 7.8123;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.69 from 4.70 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.24 from 7.23 from 7.24;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.92 from 104.77 last week from 104.65 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.43% from 4.50% from 4.47%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.89% from 4.88% from 4.95%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.93 from 93.95 from 94.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.89 from 76.86 from 77.09;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1869 from 1801 from 1796; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 16, 2024

window-dressing.jpg

1H Window Dressing?

It's 1H Window Dressing time so the markets should be relatively strong until early July.

However, the "experts" are now very bearish on the markets and the following are some of what was written this week:-

A. Doug Cass: Fifteen Reasons To View This Market Cautiously
1. Equity performance has been top heavy
2. Corporate profit performance is also reliant of mega-cap tech
3. Corporate profit expectations are unrealistic
4. The market is not broadening out
5. Traditional valuation metrics are generally in the 90% tile or higher
6. The breathtaking reset in valuations (since October) could mean reverse
7. Interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer
8. Equities have rarely been as overvalued against interest rates as they are today
9. Global economic growth is expected to be weak (relative to consensus)
10. Inflation (particularly of a service-kind) will remain sticky
11. Consensus S&P EPS may be too high
12. Political risks are underappreciated
13. Geopolitical risks are unlikely to abate
14. Investor sentiment remains bullish and fear is absent
15. Market structure and investor positioning are potentially toxic market influences
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=10

B. Shiff Sovereign: Five Predictions For The Coming Decade Of Decline:-
1. Inflation is coming. The government’s own projections forecast an extra $20 trillion in new debt over the coming decade, and frankly that’s optimistic.
2. Social Security is not going to be there for you by 2033, Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money.
3. Higher taxes are virtually guaranteed
4. Continued social chaos
5. Maybe most importantly, major geopolitical disruptions.

With so many such bearish articles out there, one needs to be mentally strong to be able to stay in this type of markets.

My position has not really changed from last week:-
1. US: Earnings Season is almost over but "Window Dressing" is here
2. HK: "Tug Of War" between:-
a. Investment Banks who have issued a lot of "Leveraged Call Warrants from 16,000 versus
b. Long Funds who are underweighted China and the National Team
My gut feel is that 17600 could be the Support. I have been adding to my HK positions while taking small profits whenever possible. HK is a good trading market.

For next week, I think that the markets would be grinding higher due to Window Dressing activities so it's not a bad idea to hold till early July unless it's a windfall profit.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (41% from 44% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 53% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 30% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of June 15, 2024 @ 7.06 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$75 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher. US$2348 from US$2311 last week from US$2347 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$30 from US$29 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.50 from US$4.45 from US$4.63;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$86 from US$87 last week from US$90 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$65,887 from US$69,379 last week from US$68,298 two weeks ago @ 7.18 AM on June 15, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "38 Fear" from "48 Neutral" last week from "53 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5432 from 5278 last week from 5305 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5400
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought DELL
h. Sold Cloudflare
i. Sold Shopify

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17976 from 18367 from 18609;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Chow Tai Fook
e. Bought 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Bought Lenovo
g. Added to BABA
h. Added to AIA
i. Traded ASM Pacific
j. Traded Meituan
k. Sold China Resource Beer

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3033 from 3051 from 3089;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38815 from 38684 from 38646;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1607 from 1618 from 1619:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jun 15 @ 7.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.48 from 3.47 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8141 from 7.8135 from 7.8180;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.72 from 4.69 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.26 from 7.24 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.14 from 104.92 last week from 104.77 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.22% from 4.43% from 4.50%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.71% from 4.89% from 4.88%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.15 from 93.93 from 93.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.06 from 76.89 from 76.86;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1942 from 1869 from 1801; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 23, 2024

Grinding Higher.jpg

Grinding Higher?

The markets were quite weak this week but I think that it may grind higher from here until early July.

This is because we are hitting 1H Window Dressing time. Thereafter, we will also have some new money from the new month of July.

For the HK & China markets, everyone is also expecting the National Team to be supporting the market before the Third Plenum in July.

For this week, "The Motley Fool" had a very bearish article:-
1. The S&P 500's Shiller P/E stood at 35.38
2. It's double the average reading over the last 153 years of 17.13
3. When back-tested to the start of 1871, this represents one of the highest-ever readings during a bull market rally
(The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years)

If the market does spike as expected, between now and early July, I may use the opportunity to raise some Cash to be deployed later in the summer.

In addition, we have only about 4 more months to the US Presidential Election and I need to start thinking about how a Trump Presidency would be affecting my China holdings (which is about 57% of my current portfolio).


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (39% from 41% last week from 44% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 57% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of June 22, 2024 @ 8.10 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$75 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower. US$2335 from US$2348 last week from US$2311 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$30 from US$30 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.43 from US$4.50 from US$4.45;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$85 from US$86 last week from US$87 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$64141 from US$65,887 last week from US$69,379 two weeks ago @ 8.10 AM on June 22, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "41 Fear" from "38 Fear" last week from "48 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5465 from 5432 last week from 5278 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6000
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold DELL

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17976 from 18367 from 18609;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Baidu
e. Bought Meituan
f. Bought China Resource Beer
g. Sold Chow Tai Fook
h. Sold Lenovo
i. Traded NetEase

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2998 from 3033 from 3051;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38596 from 38815 from 38684;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1607 from 1618 from 1619:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 21 @ 2.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 159 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.48 from 3.48 from 3.47;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.07 from 1.07 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8023 from 7.8141 from 7.8135;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.71 from 4.72 from 4.69;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.26 from 7.26 from 7.24;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.18 from 105.14 last week from 104.92 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.22% from 4.43% from 4.50%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.71% from 4.89% from 4.88%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.47 from 94.15 from 93.93;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.30 from 77.06 from 76.89;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1984 from 1942 from 1869; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 30, 2024

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets early next week unless the Fund Managers have already spent their money in advance this week.

For the US markets, I'm expecting the markets to be threading water from late next week to the start of 2Q Earnings Season in mid-July.

Thereafter, it will probably be quite volatile depending on the forward guidance (which seems to be more important nowadays than the results beating expectations).

We will then have the FOMC meeting on July 30-31. Even if there's a 25 bps rates cut, I do not think that it would be that big a deal in the whole scheme of things.

For the HK market, since the index has touched 17600 (the support level that I mentioned for weeks), I think that the markets will be grinding higher from here.

Although there are still some Leveraged Call Warrants from 15,300, I dont see the Hang Seng dropping to that level, where it will wipe out most of the Leveraged Call Warrants.

BTW, the Third Plenum will be on July 15-18 so the National Team would also be at work before then.

In addition, a lot of Leveraged Put Warrants were also being issued over the few weeks which is a bullish sign for the HK market.

As for myself, I have been adding to my HK positions, in anticipation of the rally over the next 2 to 3 weeks.

In the meantime, the following are some more bearish articles for you this week:-

A. Charles Hugh Smith: 10 Geopolitical, Financial Risks to the Global Economy:-
1. Financiers Seizing Collateral in a Derivatives Crisis
2. Cyberattacks
3. Tariff wars
4. Confiscation of other nation's financial assets
5. Selling / Boycott of US Treasuries
6. Imposition of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
7. Russia's ban of uranium exports to the West
8. Restrictions on Strategically Significant Commodities
9. Private cryptocurrencies forcibly folded into CBDCs
10. Escalation of Ukraine war

B. investor Place: What’s at risk of breaking when governments are behind money expansion distortions?
1. The purchasing power of our currency
2. Lower-income Americans who can no longer make ends meet
3. U.S. Treasury yields soar as foreign buyers eye our government’s financial position with increasing skepticism
4. Higher for longer inflation
5. A fracturing of our nation’s social cohesion

As for next week, I will be travelling so I will be taking a short "Trading Break" as well as a break from the postings in the forum.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (44% from 39% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (20 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (6 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of June 29, 2024 @ 7.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$75 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Flat. US$2337 from US$2335 last week from US$2348 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$29 from US$30 from US$30;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.38 from US$4.43 from US$4.50;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$85 from US$85 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$61,527 from US$64141 last week from US$65,887 two weeks ago @ 2.33 PM on June 28, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "44 Fear" from "41 Fear" last week from "38 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5460 from 5465 last week from 5432 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6000
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Added to Nike

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17976 from 18367 from 18609;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Nongfu Spring
e. Bought China Overseas land
f. Bought Xiaomi
g. Bought Tingyi

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2998 from 3033 from 3051;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38596 from 38815 from 38684;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1607 from 1618 from 1619:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded YNH


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 28 @ 11.04 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 161 from 159 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.47 from 3.48 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.07 from 1.07 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8079 from 7.8023 from 7.8141;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.72 from 4.71 from 4.72;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.27 from 7.26 from 7.26;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.70 from 105.18 last week from 105.10
two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.39% from 4.22% from 4.43%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.75% from 4.71% from 4.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.51 from 94.47 from 94.15;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.33 from 77.30 from 77.06;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2031 from 1984 from 1942; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 7, 2024

Earnings Season.png

US Earnings Season

It will be US Earnings Season soon so the US market could be volatile from late next week.

According to Factset, the estimated yoy Q2 earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 8.8%. If 8.8% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q1 2022 (9.4%).

Anyway, most "experts" are expecting things in the US to be humming along nicely and the following prediction by Market 360 is a typical one:-
1. A More Accommodative Central Bank
2. A Soft Economic Landing
3. Falling Treasury Yields
4. Presidential Election Year = Bullish Markets
5. A Second Wave of the AI Boom

As for myself, I think that the US markets could continue to grind higher, with the occasional gaps (up and down) during Earnings Season.

"Time In The Market" seems to be a better strategy for the US markets over the past few years than "Market Timing". However, I think that we are reaching the late innings now. Even Jensen Huang and Jeff Bezos is slowly selling some of their shares.

For the HK market, it has been preforming below expectations. The Third Plenum is only a week away and the National Team is nowhere in sight. Maybe they may suddenly appear next week, just before the meeting. I continue to have a good position for the HK markets. However, I will need to be a bit careful in case Trump becomes President again ie. delisting of ADRs, sanctions etc.

For the Malaysian market, the interest seems to be in the big cap Infrastructure plays especially Data-centres and Renewable Energy, even though they have run up a lot already. I cannot feel the situation here so I do not have a big position in Malaysia.

Finally, I've been reminding myself to be a bit careful and not to be too complacent. I still think that it's a "Trading Market" and therefore, small profits should be taken along the way. I'm also slowly going through my portfolio and trimming the weaker and smaller counters. When a slowdown does occur, I want to be invested only in the solid bigger companies that has a strong wide moat.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (41% from 44% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 28% (6 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/SGD/Gold" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Jul 6, 2024 @ 6.40 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$83 from US$78 last week from US$75 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher. US$2400 from US$2337 last week from US$2335 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$32 from US$29 from US$30;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.67 from US$4.38 from US$4.43;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$86 from US$85 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$56,601 from US$61,527 last week from US$64141 two weeks ago @ 6.45 AM on July 6, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "54 Neutral" from "44 Fear" last week from "41 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5567 from 5460 last week from 5465 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6000
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17800 from 17976 from 18367;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 17500; 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Sold Tingyi

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2950 from 2998 from 3033;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 40912 from 38596 from 38815;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1611 from 1607 from 1618:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 6 @ 7.05 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 161 from 161 last week from 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.47 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.07 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8145 from 7.8079 from 7.8023;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.71 from 4.72 from 4.71;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.27 from 7.27 from 7.26;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.54 from 105.70 last week from 105.18
two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.28% from 4.39% from 4.22%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.61% from 4.75% from 4.71%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.59 from 94.51 from 94.47;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.43 from 77.33 from 77.30;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2021 from 2031 from 1984; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 13, 2024

Summer Rally.jpg

Summer Rally?

It's US Earnings Season and the "experts" are expecting the US markets to continue grinding up.

The following are some of the Bullish articles this week:-

1. Daily Wealth
a. History shows this momentum should continue
b. We could see double-digit gains by the end of 2024
c. And that means we want to stay bullish right now.

2. Rick Newman: 5 signs inflation will soon be finished
a. Goods are now dropping in value
b. Rent inflation is finally improving
c. Cars are finally getting cheaper
d. Car insurance costs seem to have peaked
e. Consumers are less worried about inflation

However, it's also good to see what the Bears are saying:-

1. Piper Sandler
a. A 'deeper' S&P 500 pullback is coming
b. "Deteriorating market breadth and narrowing leadership" are the key concerns.

2. BCA Research
a. The stock market will drop 32% in 2025 as the Fed fails to save the economy from a recession
b. The Fed will fail to prevent a recession as it takes its time cutting interest rates.
c. Rising unemployment and constrained credit will curb consumer spending, worsening the downturn.

As for myself, I'm not chasing the US markets. However, since it's Earnings Season and if any of the brand name stocks gets very oversold, I may buy it for a 1/3 retracement.

As for the HK & China markets, it was very strong on Thursday and Friday. Was the National Team at work since the Third Plenum is on July 15 to 18? After the Third Plenum, there would also be the Poliburo Meeting.

As for my HK trading, I have decided to take some small profits here and there. If the HK market continues to rise next week, I will probably continue to sell. So far, it has risen about 800 points in two days.

As the Malaysian market, the focus seems to be on the Construction Companies, Developers with Johor landbanks and Building Materials. I have stayed mostly on the sidelines as I dont want to chase the current rally and I cant seemed to be able to "feel" things properly in Malaysia.

I'm starting to be complacent about what's happening in the markets so it's probably time to be a bit careful. One should always trade against one's emotion.

Having said that, I think that the Feds has a pretty good control of things. If a Black Swan event does occur, they can easily reduce rates by about 2% to 3% and easily print up to US$4t. In total, the Banksters should be able to print up to US$15t just like what they did the last time during the Subprime Crisis. So maybe the party can probably continue till the new US President is chosen.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (37% from 41% last week from 44% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 53% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (6 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Jul 13, 2024 @ 7.10 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$82 from US$83 last week from US$78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher. US$2416 from US$2400 last week from US$2337 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$31 from US$32 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.58 from US$4.67 from US$4.38;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$86 from US$86 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$57,840 from US$56,601 last week from US$61,527 two weeks ago @ 7.45 AM on July 13, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "56 Greed" from "54 Neutral" last week from "44 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5615 from 5567 last week from 5460 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6000
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18293 from 17800 from 17976;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Sold 1/3 Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
f. Sold Meituan
g. Sold China Overseas Land
h. Sold Xiaomi

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2971 from 2950 from 2998;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 41191 from 40912 from 38596;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1619 from 1611 from 1607:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jul 13 @ 6.35 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 158 from 161 last week from 161 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.49 from 3.47;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.68 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8077 from 7.8145 from 7.8079;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.67 from 4.71 from 4.72;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.34 from 1.35 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.25 from 7.27 from 7.27;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.77 from 104.54 last week from 105.70
two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.19% from 4.28% from 4.39%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.46% from 4.61% from 4.75%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.24 from 94.59 from 94.51;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.98 from 77.43 from 77.33;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1997 from 2021 from 2031; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 21, 2024

Buy, Sell or Hold.jpg

Hold, Sell or Buy?

The markets have been weak and it looks like the summer doldrum is here. Therefore, I need to remind myself to be not so adventurous at this point in time.

The "Trump Assassination Attempt" and the "Crowdstrike IT Glitch" this week also reminded me that things can go sideways very easily.

For the US markets, I cant decide on whether to buy the dips or not. Maybe the dips so far, are not deep enough to warrant a punt.

For the HK market, I have actually been buying the dips as I feel that it's oversold. However, I need to be also careful, in case Trump does become President again in November.

The following is a bullish article for this week:-
1. Daily Wealth:-
a. Mom-and-pop investors are buying. They own more stocks in their portfolios than they have in years. But this bullish attitude has a long way to go before it’s a cause for concern.
b. With stocks on the rise, market sentiment is also improving. But improved sentiment won’t kill this boom.
c. We have plenty of runway before euphoria takes hold… And that means we’re staying long today.
d. We can see the broadening bull run using the ratio of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index to the S&P 500…
e. Don’t let the bears’ “narrow” narrative scare you out of stocks.
f. The bull market has started its broadening phase… And history tells us stocks are likely to soar higher from here.

At the same time, we have the following bearish comment:-
1. Bank of America:-
a. US Stocks May See 5-10% Correction on Rising Election Uncertainty

For next week, the focus will be on the US Earnings Season. For HK, I think that there could be a rebound from the oversold conditions. In addition, I'm also seeing more leveraged Put Warrants being issued in HK so that's also a bullish sign.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (43% from 37% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 63% (21 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (5 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Tencent, Meituan etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Jul 20, 2024 @ 7.10 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$79 from US$82 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower. US$2403 from US$2416 from US$2400;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$29 from US$31 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.24 from US$4.58 from US$4.67;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$85 from US$86 from US$86;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$66,746 from US$57,840 last week from US$56,601 two weeks ago @ 7.40 AM on July 20, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "49 Neutral" from "56 Greed" last week from "54 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5505 from 5615 last week from 5567 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Sold Workday

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17418 from 18293 from 17800;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Added to Baidu
f. Added to JD
g. Bought China Overseas Land
h. Bought China Telecom
i. Bought Tencent
j. Bought Zijin
k. Bought Ping An
l. Sold China Resource Beer
m. Traded Uni President

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2982 from 2971 from 2950;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 40064 from 41191 from 40912;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1637 from 1619 from 1611:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought MYEG
c. Bought Pressmetal
d. Traded Ekovest


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 20 @ 4.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 161 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.49 from 3.48 from 3.49;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.68 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8109 from 7.8077 from 7.8145;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.69 from 4.67 from 4.71;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.27 from 7.25 from 7.27;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.37 from 103.77 last week from 104.54
two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.24% from 4.19% from 4.28%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.52% from 4.46% from 4.61%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.21 from 95.24 from 94.59;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.00 from 77.98 from 77.43;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1902 from 1997 from 2021; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 28, 2024

August.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It will soon be a new month so new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should be able to see a spike in the markets late next week.

For the US market, the counters would still be moving on the earnings announcement. It's also very likely that the Feds wont be lowering rates on July 31st. And even if they do, it would probably be not big a deal either.

For the HK & China market, the National Team may be supporting before the Politburo Meeting. For the Third Plenum, they did buy some China ETFs as evidenced by the Shanghai market not dropping as much as HK. My feeling now is that HK would just be a "Trading Market" only till the November US Presidential Election.

The following are some interesting articles this week:-

1. UOB: Key risks ahead for the global economy
a. Trump victory
b. Sticky inflation
c. China’s uneven economic recovery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. RHB: Five scenarios that may happen from Trump 2.0
a. Scenario 1: China tensions and negative spillover to Asean
b. Scenario 2: Rate cuts in deference to political pressures
c. Scenario 3: Stronger global drive to de-dollarise
d. Scenario 4: Increased geopolitically-driven sentiments
e. Scenario 5: Division of world order
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

I'm starting to feel that August could maybe end up as the "calm before the storm". Therefore, I need to remind myself to lower my exposure to Equities whenever I can.

I've been a bit complacent lately and have allowed my exposure to Equities to creep up over the past few weeks, mainly due to the steep dips in HK.

Going forward, I should only buy on very oversold conditions only. Trying to go for a quick 3% gain in a short time may not be a viable strategy anymore, in view of the current "risk-off" situation in the markets.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (45% from 43% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (22 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 29% (5 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Jul 27, 2024 @ 7.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$76 from US$79 last week from US$82 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower. US$2386 from US$2403 from US$2416;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$28 from US$29 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.11 from US$4.24 from US$4.58;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$82 from US$85 from US$86;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$67,876 from US$66,746 last week from US$57,840 two weeks ago @ 7.07 AM on July 27, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "45 Neutral" from "49 Neutral" last week from "56 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5459 from 5505 last week from 5615 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17021 from 17418 from 18293;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Added to Meituan
f. Bought ASM Pacific
g. Bought East Buy
h. Sold China Telecom
i. Traded Sunny Optical

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2891 from 2982 from 2971;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 37667 from 40064 from 41191;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1613 from 1637 from 1619:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Ekovest


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jul 27 @ 7.07 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 154 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.47 from 3.49 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.67 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8067 from 7.8109 from 7.8077;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.66 from 4.69 from 4.67;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.34 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.25 from 7.27 from 7.25;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.33 from 104.37 last week from 103.77
two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.19% from 4.24% from 4.19%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.39% from 4.52% from 4.46%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.54 from 95.21 from 95.24;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.29 from 78.00 from 77.98;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1834 from 1902 from 1997; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

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