Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

Winston must be an avid watch collector ... ... Rolexs?

No, I'm not an avid watch collector. I dont like to collect anything nowadays

[millionairemind]

W notified me that I quoted the wrong TOL date.. paiseh.... must be in a hurry to go to the fish shop this morning..

Here's the correct quote.

TOL as of November 1, 2009:-

1) Commodities - What will cause a sharp correction on Commodities ?
MM: When market crashS or starts going down big time, USD will rally as investors seeks safe haven. This will cause commodities to start tumbling... Gold will go down too. Call it conspiracy theory.. but I think they are prepping for a downward violent swing.. so that the BIG INVESTMENT BANKS with major trading arms can start making money this quarter as the upside is now limited. The PPIP plan has fallen apart.. the PPT wants the big firms to earn their way to financial health again.

2) Shanghai - What will cause a sharp correction on Shanghai ?

MM: If they tightened the bank loans... BJ knows about the stimulus money flooding into the stock market and property market.. they will do something about it...

8) Swine Flu - Winter is on it's way in the Northern Hemisphere
MM: Seems to be getting more and more serious in the US.


13) USD - USD is moving upwards on no specific news. What will cause the shorts to be squeezed tightly ? Crash in the Yen ? Crash in Eastern Europe ?
MM: Crash in global stock market will cause USD to strengthen.
14) Signature - I have changed my signature to:-
Always have a good reason when you buy and sell

[winston]

TOL as of November 8, 2009:-

1) Gold - The short-term players are doing a momentum trade. They think that they are smart enough to get out before the trend turns. Do you think a Stop would be able to protect them when it gaps down? Remember Oil when you were buying at US$150 ? Still vested in some gold coins to be used in emergency only.

2) Oil - Does not look too strong to me but at least it's more useful than gold.

3) Other Commodities - What will cause a sharp correction on Commodities? Sharp rise in USD? And what would cause a sharp rise in USD? Sharp drop in Equities? And what would cause a sharp drop in Equities?

4) Shanghai - Dont see a sharp correction or sharp rise

5) HK Equities - Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, BBMG, China Mobile & Rexlot.

6) HK IPO - Breakeven on Yu Zhou. Jackpot on Trinity, Evergrande and Greens. Did not apply for China High precision and CPMC.

7) Spore Equities - Still no Conviction Buy

8) US Equities - Still expecting it to be range-bound between 8000 to 10,000. Bought some S&P Inverse ETF on Friday.

9) Properties - HK, China & Spore: The person buying now is either smart, arrogant, ignorant or dirty

10) Swine Flu - I did not allow my kids to be vaccinated as I'm not convinced that they have studied the long term effects of the vaccine

11) Emerging Markets- Will you buy at this price ?

12) Iran - Even if there's a sanction, the impact would be minimal. There are many porous areas, where things can be smuggled into Iran. I dont think Obama will take them out. But Israel may not ask for Obama's permission either..

13) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010. The Insider Trading probe is getting bigger. I dont think there would be new money flowing into the industry

14) US Interest Rates - What will cause an unexpected spike upwards? Would you want to buy a US debt at very low interest rate with a depreciating dollar ?

15) USD - What will cause the shorts to be squeezed tightly ? Crash in the Yen ? Crash in Eastern Europe ?

16) In times like this, it does make sense to use some of your time to try to start a business or to go back to the Corporate World, until things are "cheap" again ..

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments ...

[kennynah]

14) US Interest Rates - What will cause an unexpected spike upwards? Would you want to buy a US debt at very low interest rate with a depreciating dollar ?

but some wise institution here thinks they can raise money thru issuing USD denominated debentures....

8) US Equities - Still expecting it to be range-bound between 8000 to 10,000. Bought some S&P Inverse ETF on Friday.

if this is your expectation...then i suppose you would be going Short come Monday...since DOW ended 10K mark last Fri ?

[winston]

but some wise institution here thinks they can raise money thru issuing USD denominated debentures....

They are smart to issue USD debentures... I think

i suppose you would be going Short come Monday...since DOW ended 10K mark last Fri ?

Yes. Up 3 points on S&P. These are not futures so are not levergaed instruments. In addition, if the futures starts turning negative in the afternoon, then it would be ok again. The risk is if the S&P starts going up say another 400 points over the next 6 months ...

[lithium]

Yes. Up 3 points on S&P. These are not futures so are not levergaed instruments. In addition, if the futures starts turning negative in the afternoon, then it would be ok again. The risk is if the S&P starts going up say another 400 points over the next 6 months ...

Use SDS, double it, more fun

[kennynah]

lai lah....casino open....

[winston]

TOL as of November 22, 2009:-


Would you be buying at this price ?


1) Gold - Would you be buying at this price ? Dont think the rally is sustainable

2) Oil - Would you be buying at this price ? Am expecting it to drop further

3) Other Commodities - Would you be buying at this price ? Expecting the USD to go up on Short Covering. Hence, Commodities will be hit

4) Shanghai Equities - Would you be buying at this price ? Close to the resistance of 3400

5) HK Equities - Reduced Zhongwang, AMVIG, BBMG & Rexlot. Sold China Mobile..

6) HK IPO - Stagged on Tontine & Longfor. Applied for Fantasia, Sany & Ming Sheng

7) Spore Equities - Would you be buying at this price ? Still no Conviction Buy.

8) US Equities - Would you be buying at this price ? Still expecting it to be range-bound. Am still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF

9) Properties ( HK, Spore & China ) - Would you be buying at this price ?

10) Swine Flu - Have not heard of any significant increase in cases. News blackout ?

11) Emerging Markets - Would you be buying at this price ?

12) Iran - Israel may decide to take out those nuclear reactors without discussing it with the US. I think the game of chicken will be brought up to the next level.

13) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010

14) Mutual Funds - Would you be buying at this price ? There's supposedly some funds outflow now

15) US Interest Rates - Would you be buying a US debt now, at very low interest rate with a depreciating dollar ?

16) USD - Am expecting the shorts to be squeezed. What will be the catalyst ? Crash in the Yen ? Crash in Europe being caused by surging NPLs in Eastern Europe ? Crash in Emerging Markets ?


This is actually the first time that I have had a title for these postings. Today's title is to remind myself of the big picture ie. things have gone up a lot since March 2009. They could go much higher from here but it's not a risk that I'm willing to take.

I'm not smart enough to be able to call the top so I'm sitting on some Cash while I wait for things to develop. In the meantime, I will continue to stag on some of the HK IPOs with the Cash ..

The above is to help me crystalize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments....

[kennynah]

TOL as of November 22, 2009:-


Would you be buying at this price ?


1) Gold - Would you be buying at this price ? Dont think the rally is sustainable

K : i would not be buying for long term... nor short...basically, i have no feel as to where gold will go...but in this confirmed uptrend, i will be very hesitant to go short.

8) US Equities - Would you be buying at this price ? Still expecting it to be range-bound. Am still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF

K : no, i have withdrawn all Long positions...

16) USD - Am expecting the shorts to be squeezed. What will be the catalyst ? Crash in the Yen ? Crash in Europe being caused by surging NPLs in Eastern Europe ? Crash in Emerging Markets ?

K : I believe dollar downtrend has come to a pause...it could turn around for higher...

[winston]

TOL:-

Oil is losing momentum and Gold is continuing on it's rally. Both are subjected to same decline in the USD.

One of this commodity is not acting right. Which one ?