TOL @ March 17, 2024
What Can Go Wrong (Part 2)
The US markets have not been going anywhere for the past week while HK spiked early in the week and gave back half of it's rise by the end of the week.
As I think that the HK market is a "Trading Market", I sold some of my positions with the intention of buying them back later.
For this week, we continue to see various bearish comments including:-
1. Jeremy Grantham:-
a. US stocks have been dangerously overpriced and the AI-related bubble will eventually burst
b. Corporate earnings which are close to the record high are actually double counting and double jeopardy, if margins and multiples are both at record levels at the same time.
2. Ken Griffin, Founder of Citadel
a. Thinks the Fed should move slowly in lowering interest rates to avoid the possibility of having to reverse course later.
3. John Rogers, Founder of Ariel Investments
a. Stock market is ripe for a correction
b. Relative to history, large-cap growth stocks like Nvidia are overpriced
c. AI investor enthusiasm is reminiscent of the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000.
For next week, most traders would be looking at whether the BoJ will be increasing interest rates. I have been trying to play this scenario but have not being able to find a suitable vehicle to play it. The various ETFs that I have looked at eg. EWV (Inverse 2x MSCI Japan), FXY (Long Yen), YCL (Long Yen 2x) are all thinly traded and can be easily manipulated. So I will probably have to skip this "opportunity".
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (30% from 38% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 24% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$81 from US$78 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2159 from US$2186 from US$2092;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.12 from US$3.89 from US$3.86;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$91 from US$94 from US$95;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$66,646 from US$67,845 last week from US$62,478 two weeks ago @ 6.04 PM on March 17, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "70 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 5117 from 5124 last week from 5137 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold Baidu USD
2. HK Equities - Higher. 16721 from 16353 from 16589;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to AIA
d. Sold 1/3 Alibaba
e. Sold 2/3 Baidu
f. Sold 2/3 Tencent
g. Sold 2/3 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
h. Sold Sands China
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3055 from 3046 from 3027;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38708 from 39689 from 39911;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1553 from 1540 from 1538:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded CTOS
c. Sold Hume Cement
Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 17 @ 5.50 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 149 from 147 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.52 from 3.53 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8217 from 7.8202 from 7.8162;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.70 from 4.69 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.34 from 1.33 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.20 from 7.19 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.06 from 102.52 last week from 104.10 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.31% from 4.08% from 4.19%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.73% from 4.48% from 4.53%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.35 from 94.66 from 94.42;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.08 from 77.38 from 77.18;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2374 from 2251 from 2203; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
|
|
Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:18 pm
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun Mar 24, 2024 9:52 am
TOL @ March 24, 2024
The Big Picture (Update)
As the BoJ has exited "negative interest rates" and Powell has signaled 3 interest rates reduction for 2024, it's time to check on the "Big Picture" again.
1. Interest Rates:- The Feds will probably be reducing interest rates in the next few months for the following reasons:-
a. Things are rapidly slowing down in the US
b. The US government has a huge debt to service
c. The Democrats do not want a recession before the Nov. Election
I'm waiting to buy TLT and EMB
2. Inflation:- It should slowly decrease as "Consumer Demand" is decreasing. Hopefully, the following issues do not spiral out of control:-
a. Ukraine War
b. Israel-Gaza Conflict
c. Red Sea Houthi Conflict
d. Oil price increase
3. USD:- It may continue to be strong due to the elevated interest rates in the US. Once, there's a feeling that the Feds will start to reduce interest rates, the USD should slowly weaken from there. It looks like this would only occur around 2H 2024 now. I may buy some EMB as well as some Yen at that time thru FCY and YCL.
4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in "Demand". Till date, the demand from China has been quite sluggish though. I'm now watching Copper.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is continuing to add to the world's Liquidity. Japan may slowly withdraw some Liquidity while the Feds will probably be moderating their Quantitative Tightening.
6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.
7. Ukraine War:- With the Israel Conflict and the US Debt Ceiling discussion, the US may force Ukraine to accept a truce especially if Trump becomes President again.
8. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" has become "Magnificent Three" now. If the "Magnificent Three" suddenly collapses, then they would be bringing the indexes down with them.
b. China: The "National Team" will be supporting it.
c. HK: It's still a "Trading Market" and I must remind myself to behave as a "Trader" instead of a "Buy & Hold Investor'.
c. Japan: Some money may flow from Japan to HK & China.
9. US Earnings:- Forward guidance has been weak and some "experts" are saying that it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets. When the Nasdaq starts to drop sharply, I may buy some PSQ and SQQQ, at the 50% retracement, to short the Nasdaq market.
10. Trading Tactic:- I continue to buy on any steep drop and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement. In the meantime, I need to also watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till 2H 2024.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (38% from 38% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 11% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$81 from US$81 last week from US$78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2167 from US$2159 from US$2186;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.00 from US$4.12 from US$3.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$85 from US$91 from US$94;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$62,927 from US$66,646 last week from US$67845 two weeks ago @ 10.00 PM on March 22, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "72 Greed" from "70 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5234 from 5117 last week from 5124 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Lululemon (LULU)
h. Traded Prudential UK
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16499 from 16721 from 16353;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Mengniu
d. Added to Alibaba
e. Added to 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Added to AIA
g. Added to JD
h. Added to Meituan
i. Traded Tencent
j. Traded China Overseas Land
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3048 from 3055 from 3046;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 40888 from 38708 from 39689;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1542 from 1553 from 1540:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 22 @ 9.50 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 151 from 149 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.53;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8209 from 7.8217 from 7.8202;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.74 from 4.70 from 4.69;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.23 from 7.20 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.93 from 103.06 last week from 102.52 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.20% from 4.31% from 4.08%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.60% from 4.73% from 4.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.26 from 94.35 from 94.66;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.80 from 77.08 from 77.38;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2240 from 2374 from 2251; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
The Big Picture (Update)
As the BoJ has exited "negative interest rates" and Powell has signaled 3 interest rates reduction for 2024, it's time to check on the "Big Picture" again.
1. Interest Rates:- The Feds will probably be reducing interest rates in the next few months for the following reasons:-
a. Things are rapidly slowing down in the US
b. The US government has a huge debt to service
c. The Democrats do not want a recession before the Nov. Election
I'm waiting to buy TLT and EMB
2. Inflation:- It should slowly decrease as "Consumer Demand" is decreasing. Hopefully, the following issues do not spiral out of control:-
a. Ukraine War
b. Israel-Gaza Conflict
c. Red Sea Houthi Conflict
d. Oil price increase
3. USD:- It may continue to be strong due to the elevated interest rates in the US. Once, there's a feeling that the Feds will start to reduce interest rates, the USD should slowly weaken from there. It looks like this would only occur around 2H 2024 now. I may buy some EMB as well as some Yen at that time thru FCY and YCL.
4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in "Demand". Till date, the demand from China has been quite sluggish though. I'm now watching Copper.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is continuing to add to the world's Liquidity. Japan may slowly withdraw some Liquidity while the Feds will probably be moderating their Quantitative Tightening.
6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.
7. Ukraine War:- With the Israel Conflict and the US Debt Ceiling discussion, the US may force Ukraine to accept a truce especially if Trump becomes President again.
8. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" has become "Magnificent Three" now. If the "Magnificent Three" suddenly collapses, then they would be bringing the indexes down with them.
b. China: The "National Team" will be supporting it.
c. HK: It's still a "Trading Market" and I must remind myself to behave as a "Trader" instead of a "Buy & Hold Investor'.
c. Japan: Some money may flow from Japan to HK & China.
9. US Earnings:- Forward guidance has been weak and some "experts" are saying that it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets. When the Nasdaq starts to drop sharply, I may buy some PSQ and SQQQ, at the 50% retracement, to short the Nasdaq market.
10. Trading Tactic:- I continue to buy on any steep drop and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement. In the meantime, I need to also watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till 2H 2024.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (38% from 38% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 11% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off;
1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$81 from US$81 last week from US$78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2167 from US$2159 from US$2186;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.00 from US$4.12 from US$3.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$85 from US$91 from US$94;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$62,927 from US$66,646 last week from US$67845 two weeks ago @ 10.00 PM on March 22, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "72 Greed" from "70 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5234 from 5117 last week from 5124 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Lululemon (LULU)
h. Traded Prudential UK
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16499 from 16721 from 16353;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Mengniu
d. Added to Alibaba
e. Added to 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Added to AIA
g. Added to JD
h. Added to Meituan
i. Traded Tencent
j. Traded China Overseas Land
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3048 from 3055 from 3046;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 40888 from 38708 from 39689;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1542 from 1553 from 1540:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 22 @ 9.50 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 151 from 149 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.53;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8209 from 7.8217 from 7.8202;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.74 from 4.70 from 4.69;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.23 from 7.20 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.93 from 103.06 last week from 102.52 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.20% from 4.31% from 4.08%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.60% from 4.73% from 4.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.26 from 94.35 from 94.66;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.80 from 77.08 from 77.38;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2240 from 2374 from 2251; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Fri Mar 29, 2024 5:09 pm
TOL @ March 29, 2024
New Money From The New Month
I'm updating my blog today as I will be involved with various Ching Ming activities over the next few days.
It's a new month again and there would be new money flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets early next week.
For the US markets, we are reaching new highs again. If there's a "flash crash" over the next few weeks, it could be a good buying opportunity as there are a lot of Cash on the sidelines as well as the Feds being in a position to reduce QT and to lower interest rates.
For the HK market, it's starting to be quite strong. It may be in the process of moving from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold Market". How I can tell is that some of the counters that I have sold, are now trading at a higher price than the price that I sold and it's quite difficult buying them back at a good price.
For the Malaysian market, I'm buying some of the Blue Chips whenever they dip.
For next week, I think that it would be the "same old, same old" situation. Anyway, I'm running around to a few places next week so will not have much time to trade next week.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (35% from 38% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 66% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$83 from US$81 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2255 from US$2167 from US$2159;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.01 from US$4.00 from US$4.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$89 from US$85 from US$91;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$69,964 from US$62,927 last week from US$66,646 two weeks ago @ 5.00 PM on March 29, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "71 Greed" from "72 Greed" last week from "70 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5254 from 5234 last week from 5117 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Traded Lululemon
2. HK Equities - Higher. 16541 from 16499 from 16721;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Overseas Properties
d. Added to China Mengniu
e. Sold 1/2 JD
f. Sold 2/3 Meituan
g. Sold China Overseas Land
h. Traded Baidu
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3041 from 3048 from 3055;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 40369 from 40888 from 38708;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1542 from 1553 from 1540:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Hume Cement Industries
c. Bought Gamuda
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 29 @ 3.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 151 from 151 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.50 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8260 from 7.8209 from 7.8217;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.73 from 4.74 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.22 from 7.23 from 7.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.27 from 103.93 last week from 103.06 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.21% from 4.20% from 4.31%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.63% from 4.60% from 4.73%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.20 from 95.26 from 94.35;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.73 from 77.80 from 77.08;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1821 from 2240 from 2374; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
New Money From The New Month
I'm updating my blog today as I will be involved with various Ching Ming activities over the next few days.
It's a new month again and there would be new money flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets early next week.
For the US markets, we are reaching new highs again. If there's a "flash crash" over the next few weeks, it could be a good buying opportunity as there are a lot of Cash on the sidelines as well as the Feds being in a position to reduce QT and to lower interest rates.
For the HK market, it's starting to be quite strong. It may be in the process of moving from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold Market". How I can tell is that some of the counters that I have sold, are now trading at a higher price than the price that I sold and it's quite difficult buying them back at a good price.
For the Malaysian market, I'm buying some of the Blue Chips whenever they dip.
For next week, I think that it would be the "same old, same old" situation. Anyway, I'm running around to a few places next week so will not have much time to trade next week.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (35% from 38% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 66% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$83 from US$81 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2255 from US$2167 from US$2159;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.01 from US$4.00 from US$4.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$89 from US$85 from US$91;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$69,964 from US$62,927 last week from US$66,646 two weeks ago @ 5.00 PM on March 29, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "71 Greed" from "72 Greed" last week from "70 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5254 from 5234 last week from 5117 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Traded Lululemon
2. HK Equities - Higher. 16541 from 16499 from 16721;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Overseas Properties
d. Added to China Mengniu
e. Sold 1/2 JD
f. Sold 2/3 Meituan
g. Sold China Overseas Land
h. Traded Baidu
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3041 from 3048 from 3055;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 40369 from 40888 from 38708;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1542 from 1553 from 1540:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Hume Cement Industries
c. Bought Gamuda
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 29 @ 3.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 151 from 151 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.50 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8260 from 7.8209 from 7.8217;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.73 from 4.74 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.22 from 7.23 from 7.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.27 from 103.93 last week from 103.06 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.21% from 4.20% from 4.31%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.63% from 4.60% from 4.73%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.20 from 95.26 from 94.35;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.73 from 77.80 from 77.08;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1821 from 2240 from 2374; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun Apr 07, 2024 7:27 am
TOL @ Apr 07, 2024
US: 1Q Earnings
The following are some info on the US 1Q Earnings from CNN Business:-
"US 1Q Earnings season kicks off next week with Delta Air Lines, Citigroup, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Analysts polled by FactSet expect first-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies to grow 3.1% from the prior year. That would mark the third straight quarter of earnings growth. Full-year profits are expected to swell 10.7%."
Presently, a lot of people are expecting the US 1Q Earnings Season to be the catalyst for the markets to go higher. Hence, they are trying to front-run the earnings announcement.
As for myself, I'm still a bit careful with the US markets. If there's a sharp drop due to poor earnings announcement, I may try to bottom-fish for the small rebound. However, it really depends on the situation and whether there's any catalyst for sustainable rebound.
As for the HK market, I'm continuing to trade it. Nowadays, I also look at where the Call Prices of the Leveraged Warrants are. If the Call Prices are crowded at a certain level of the Hang Seng Index, then there's a strong incentive for the warrant issuers, to try to move the Hang Seng index towards that Call Price level, to suspend that leveraged warrant.
Anyway, I believe that the trend for HK & China is up as the National Team is continuously supporting the market. Therefore, I continue to buy any Blue Chip on any sharp dip and to try to sell it at the 1/3 rebound.
For next week, I'm not expecting much from the markets until the start of the US Earnings Season.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (40% from 35% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 67% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 18% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$87 from US$83 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2349 from US$2255 from US$2167;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$28 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.24 from US$4.01 from US$4.00;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$87 from US$89 from US$85;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$67,935 from US$69,964 last week from US$62,927 two weeks ago @ 1.10 PM on Apr 6, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "61 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 5204 from 5254 last week from 5234 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Higher. 16724 from 16541 from 16499;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Oilfields
d. Bought Netease
e. Added to JD
f. Sold China Overseas Properties
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3069 from 3041 from 3048;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38992 from 40369 from 40888;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1555 from 1542 from 1553:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 06 @ 1.22 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 152 from 151 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.52 from 3.50 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8285 from 7.8260 from 7.8209;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.75 from 4.73 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.22 from 7.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.07 from 104.27 last week from 103.93 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.40 % from 4.21% from 4.20%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.75% from 4.63% from 4.60%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.92 from 95.20 from 95.26;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.81 from 77.73 from 77.80;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1628 from 1821 from 2240; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
US: 1Q Earnings
The following are some info on the US 1Q Earnings from CNN Business:-
"US 1Q Earnings season kicks off next week with Delta Air Lines, Citigroup, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Analysts polled by FactSet expect first-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies to grow 3.1% from the prior year. That would mark the third straight quarter of earnings growth. Full-year profits are expected to swell 10.7%."
Presently, a lot of people are expecting the US 1Q Earnings Season to be the catalyst for the markets to go higher. Hence, they are trying to front-run the earnings announcement.
As for myself, I'm still a bit careful with the US markets. If there's a sharp drop due to poor earnings announcement, I may try to bottom-fish for the small rebound. However, it really depends on the situation and whether there's any catalyst for sustainable rebound.
As for the HK market, I'm continuing to trade it. Nowadays, I also look at where the Call Prices of the Leveraged Warrants are. If the Call Prices are crowded at a certain level of the Hang Seng Index, then there's a strong incentive for the warrant issuers, to try to move the Hang Seng index towards that Call Price level, to suspend that leveraged warrant.
Anyway, I believe that the trend for HK & China is up as the National Team is continuously supporting the market. Therefore, I continue to buy any Blue Chip on any sharp dip and to try to sell it at the 1/3 rebound.
For next week, I'm not expecting much from the markets until the start of the US Earnings Season.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (40% from 35% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 67% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 18% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$87 from US$83 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2349 from US$2255 from US$2167;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$28 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.24 from US$4.01 from US$4.00;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$87 from US$89 from US$85;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$67,935 from US$69,964 last week from US$62,927 two weeks ago @ 1.10 PM on Apr 6, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "61 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 5204 from 5254 last week from 5234 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade
2. HK Equities - Higher. 16724 from 16541 from 16499;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Oilfields
d. Bought Netease
e. Added to JD
f. Sold China Overseas Properties
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3069 from 3041 from 3048;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38992 from 40369 from 40888;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1555 from 1542 from 1553:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 06 @ 1.22 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 152 from 151 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.52 from 3.50 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8285 from 7.8260 from 7.8209;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.75 from 4.73 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.22 from 7.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.07 from 104.27 last week from 103.93 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.40 % from 4.21% from 4.20%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.75% from 4.63% from 4.60%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.92 from 95.20 from 95.26;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.81 from 77.73 from 77.80;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1628 from 1821 from 2240; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun Apr 14, 2024 8:46 am
TOL @ Apr 14, 2024
Sell Before May & Go Away?
The S&P 500 has broken thru the 20 day EMA of 5180 and the "experts" are saying that it's now on the way to 4700.
Hence, these "experts" are now asking people to sell instead of waiting for May (a traditional weak period as the traders are away for their Summer holidays).
Anyway, if there's a sharp dive in the US, I think that only the Indices and the "Magnificent Three or Four" would be severely affected. The rest of the market have not really gone anywhere so will probably not dive as much. That does not mean that the rest of the market will not drop 10% to 15% when the margin calls hit the fan. However, it would not be the "apocalypse" as predicted by some of these "experts".
And if there's a severe dive, I think that it would also be "V-Shaped" because of the following:-
1. There's about US$8t on the sidelines. About half of these money could re-enter the markets if there's a sharp dive and especially if they reduce interest rates quickly.
2. There's also about US$2t of "dry powder" from Quantitative Tightening
3. They can also throw some "helicopter money" later as in 2010 (US$16t split equally between the Feds, ECB, PBOC and BoJ).
Intuitively, I think that the Feds will be doing their best to keep things stable for the rest of the year. It's a "Presidential Election" year and they dont want to have a major recession just before the election.
At the same time, any of the "Black Swan" or "Grey Rhino" event can explode and snowball eg. Ukraine War, Middle East Conflict (Israel, Hamas, Iran) etc.
On a "Risk vs Reward" basis, I still think that the HK market is still a better bet. The China government is doing it's best to reflate the China Economy and they are also saying the "right things". So i will continue to buy on any dips in HK and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement.
For a while, I thought that HK & China was moving from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold" one. However, the HK market actions this week, proved me wrong again.
For next week, I will be watching the following:-
1. US: Earning Announcements. If any of the US Blue Chips drop by say 20%, depending on the situation, I may pick it up for a quick trade
2. HK: Baidu AI Developers Day on Apr 16 & 17.
3. IMF Meeting: April 17 to 19
4. Iran & Israel Conflict
This morning, Israel launched some missiles and drones towards Israel. Intuitively, I do not think that this will escalate from here. There could be some knee jerk reaction at the opening of Asia trading and I think that it could be a good time to buy on the dive.
I dont think that this episode will escalate into a full scale nuclear war. Even if it does, the world will not spinning. Maybe only another tilted axis.
Finally, I need to also remind myself to be a bit careful. The market actions this week proved that things can go sideways very quickly especially with AI and Program Trading. (The US markets did dropped 25% in October 1987 due to program trading).
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 40% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), KWEB, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$85 from US$87 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2360 from US$2349 from US$2255;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$28 from US$28 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.32 from US$4.24 from US$4.01;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$89 from US$87 from US$89;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$70,777 from US$67,935 last week from US$69,964 two weeks ago @ 7.38 PM on Apr 12, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "61 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 5204 from 5254 last week from 5234 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Flat. 16722 from 16724 from 16541;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Ping An
d. Added to AIA
e. Added to Baidu
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded Netease
h. Traded JD
i. Traded Bud Asia Pacific
j. Sold 1/2 HS Tech ETF (3033)
k. Sold China Oilfields
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3019 from 3069 from 3041;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 39524 from 38992 from 40369;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1551 from 1555 from 1542:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 12 @ 7.45 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 153 from 152 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8369 from 7.8285 from 7.8260;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.75 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.24 from 7.23 from 7.22;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.64 from 104.07 last week from 104.27 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.52% from 4.40 % from 4.21%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.89% from 4.75% from 4.63%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.45 from 93.92 from 95.20;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.41 from 76.81 from 77.73;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1690 from 1628 from 1821; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Sell Before May & Go Away?
The S&P 500 has broken thru the 20 day EMA of 5180 and the "experts" are saying that it's now on the way to 4700.
Hence, these "experts" are now asking people to sell instead of waiting for May (a traditional weak period as the traders are away for their Summer holidays).
Anyway, if there's a sharp dive in the US, I think that only the Indices and the "Magnificent Three or Four" would be severely affected. The rest of the market have not really gone anywhere so will probably not dive as much. That does not mean that the rest of the market will not drop 10% to 15% when the margin calls hit the fan. However, it would not be the "apocalypse" as predicted by some of these "experts".
And if there's a severe dive, I think that it would also be "V-Shaped" because of the following:-
1. There's about US$8t on the sidelines. About half of these money could re-enter the markets if there's a sharp dive and especially if they reduce interest rates quickly.
2. There's also about US$2t of "dry powder" from Quantitative Tightening
3. They can also throw some "helicopter money" later as in 2010 (US$16t split equally between the Feds, ECB, PBOC and BoJ).
Intuitively, I think that the Feds will be doing their best to keep things stable for the rest of the year. It's a "Presidential Election" year and they dont want to have a major recession just before the election.
At the same time, any of the "Black Swan" or "Grey Rhino" event can explode and snowball eg. Ukraine War, Middle East Conflict (Israel, Hamas, Iran) etc.
On a "Risk vs Reward" basis, I still think that the HK market is still a better bet. The China government is doing it's best to reflate the China Economy and they are also saying the "right things". So i will continue to buy on any dips in HK and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement.
For a while, I thought that HK & China was moving from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold" one. However, the HK market actions this week, proved me wrong again.
For next week, I will be watching the following:-
1. US: Earning Announcements. If any of the US Blue Chips drop by say 20%, depending on the situation, I may pick it up for a quick trade
2. HK: Baidu AI Developers Day on Apr 16 & 17.
3. IMF Meeting: April 17 to 19
4. Iran & Israel Conflict
This morning, Israel launched some missiles and drones towards Israel. Intuitively, I do not think that this will escalate from here. There could be some knee jerk reaction at the opening of Asia trading and I think that it could be a good time to buy on the dive.
I dont think that this episode will escalate into a full scale nuclear war. Even if it does, the world will not spinning. Maybe only another tilted axis.
Finally, I need to also remind myself to be a bit careful. The market actions this week proved that things can go sideways very quickly especially with AI and Program Trading. (The US markets did dropped 25% in October 1987 due to program trading).
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 40% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), KWEB, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$85 from US$87 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2360 from US$2349 from US$2255;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Flat; US$28 from US$28 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.32 from US$4.24 from US$4.01;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$89 from US$87 from US$89;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$70,777 from US$67,935 last week from US$69,964 two weeks ago @ 7.38 PM on Apr 12, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "61 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 5204 from 5254 last week from 5234 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Flat. 16722 from 16724 from 16541;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Ping An
d. Added to AIA
e. Added to Baidu
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded Netease
h. Traded JD
i. Traded Bud Asia Pacific
j. Sold 1/2 HS Tech ETF (3033)
k. Sold China Oilfields
3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3019 from 3069 from 3041;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 39524 from 38992 from 40369;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1551 from 1555 from 1542:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 12 @ 7.45 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 153 from 152 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8369 from 7.8285 from 7.8260;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.75 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.24 from 7.23 from 7.22;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.64 from 104.07 last week from 104.27 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.52% from 4.40 % from 4.21%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.89% from 4.75% from 4.63%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.45 from 93.92 from 95.20;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.41 from 76.81 from 77.73;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1690 from 1628 from 1821; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun Apr 21, 2024 4:33 am
TOL @ Apr 21, 2024
Sell, Hold or Buy?
The markets were weak this week and a lot of people are wondering whether they should Sell, Hold or Buy?
The Sellers were talking about:-
1. WW3 from either the Ukraine War or the Middle East conflict
2. High debts and elevated prolonged interest rates
3. Stagflation
etc.
The Holders were talking about:-
1. The expansion of the current AI rally
2. The Presidential Election Year
3. The still strong US Economy
etc.
The Buyers were talking about:-
1. The eventual drop in inflation and interest rates
2. The improving Global Economy especially China's
3. The reasonable valuation of "ex-Magnificent Seven" equities
etc.
As for myself, I'm betting that the Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate into WW3. Hence, I think that it's still a "Trading Market" especially in HK. And even if they do lob 5 nuclear warheads at each other, I think that the world will still continue to spin and that my life would still not be affected by it.
However, the US markets were quite weak and some " TA experts" are saying that it has another 5% downwards to go ie. 4700 on the S&P 500.
As for Shanghai, I think that the National Team" would "always" be supporting the market at 3000. (The SSE did mysteriously rise after touching 3007 on Tuesday)
For HK, whenever the "National Team" supports the China market, there would be some spill-over effect into HK. However, the CBBC issuers seems to be still in control of the HK market.
The bias for HK now seems to be upwards after the recent drop to about 16200 where there are a lot of Callable Bull Contracts with "strike prices" till that 16,200 level.
For next week, we have the NPC Meeting in China from Apr 23 to 26. Hence, I dont see the China market being weak. Therefore, HK would probably be not weak either unless there's a crash in the US market which I'm not expecting.
I think that the HK CBBC issuers will set 16,800 as their next stop as there are now a lot of Callable Bear Contracts with "strike prices' to that 16,800 level. (BTW, I've actually used up all my HKD this week and have to transfer money twice this week into my HKD account, as I have been aggressively buying HK equities this week).
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (43% from 41% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 65% (21 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), KWEB, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$83 from US$85 last week from US$87 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2407 from US$2360 from US$2349;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$28 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.49 from US$4.32 from US$4.24;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$89 from US$89 from US$87;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$63,652 from US$70,777 last week from US$67,935 two weeks ago @ 7.41 AM on Apr 20, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "31 Fear" from "61 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 4967 from 5204 last week from 5254 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16224 from 16722 from 16724;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Sands China
d. Bought Galaxy
e. Bought Zhaojin
f. Added to HS Tech ETF (3033)
g. Sold Ping An
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3065 from 3019 from 3069;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 37068 from 39524 from 38992;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1548 from 1551 from 1555:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought MRCB
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 19 @ 2.55 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 154 from 153 last week from 152 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.51 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8314 from 7.8369 from 7.8285;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.75;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.24 from 7.24 from 7.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.97 from 105.64 last week from 104.07
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62% from 4.52% from 4.40%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.99% from 4.89% from 4.75%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 92.84 from 93.45 from 93.92;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.86 from 76.41 from 76.81;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1901 from 1690 from 1628; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Sell, Hold or Buy?
The markets were weak this week and a lot of people are wondering whether they should Sell, Hold or Buy?
The Sellers were talking about:-
1. WW3 from either the Ukraine War or the Middle East conflict
2. High debts and elevated prolonged interest rates
3. Stagflation
etc.
The Holders were talking about:-
1. The expansion of the current AI rally
2. The Presidential Election Year
3. The still strong US Economy
etc.
The Buyers were talking about:-
1. The eventual drop in inflation and interest rates
2. The improving Global Economy especially China's
3. The reasonable valuation of "ex-Magnificent Seven" equities
etc.
As for myself, I'm betting that the Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate into WW3. Hence, I think that it's still a "Trading Market" especially in HK. And even if they do lob 5 nuclear warheads at each other, I think that the world will still continue to spin and that my life would still not be affected by it.
However, the US markets were quite weak and some " TA experts" are saying that it has another 5% downwards to go ie. 4700 on the S&P 500.
As for Shanghai, I think that the National Team" would "always" be supporting the market at 3000. (The SSE did mysteriously rise after touching 3007 on Tuesday)
For HK, whenever the "National Team" supports the China market, there would be some spill-over effect into HK. However, the CBBC issuers seems to be still in control of the HK market.
The bias for HK now seems to be upwards after the recent drop to about 16200 where there are a lot of Callable Bull Contracts with "strike prices" till that 16,200 level.
For next week, we have the NPC Meeting in China from Apr 23 to 26. Hence, I dont see the China market being weak. Therefore, HK would probably be not weak either unless there's a crash in the US market which I'm not expecting.
I think that the HK CBBC issuers will set 16,800 as their next stop as there are now a lot of Callable Bear Contracts with "strike prices' to that 16,800 level. (BTW, I've actually used up all my HKD this week and have to transfer money twice this week into my HKD account, as I have been aggressively buying HK equities this week).
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (43% from 41% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 65% (21 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), KWEB, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On;
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$83 from US$85 last week from US$87 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2407 from US$2360 from US$2349;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$28 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.49 from US$4.32 from US$4.24;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Flat; US$89 from US$89 from US$87;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$63,652 from US$70,777 last week from US$67,935 two weeks ago @ 7.41 AM on Apr 20, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "31 Fear" from "61 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Lower; 4967 from 5204 last week from 5254 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Lower. 16224 from 16722 from 16724;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Sands China
d. Bought Galaxy
e. Bought Zhaojin
f. Added to HS Tech ETF (3033)
g. Sold Ping An
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3065 from 3019 from 3069;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Lower; 37068 from 39524 from 38992;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1548 from 1551 from 1555:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought MRCB
Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 19 @ 2.55 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 154 from 153 last week from 152 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.51 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8314 from 7.8369 from 7.8285;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.75;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.24 from 7.24 from 7.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.97 from 105.64 last week from 104.07
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62% from 4.52% from 4.40%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.99% from 4.89% from 4.75%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 92.84 from 93.45 from 93.92;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.86 from 76.41 from 76.81;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1901 from 1690 from 1628; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun Apr 28, 2024 8:49 am
TOL @ Apr 28, 2024
New Money From The New Month
It will be a new month so new money will be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets next week. Thereafter, various factors will be in play for the various markets:-
1. US Market
I think that it will be driven by the Earnings Season especially the "Forward Guidance". I think that the Inflation and Interest Rates discussions are getting a bit stale.
2. HK market:-
I think that there would probably be some profit taking. It has gone up about 1400 points in the past five sessions. If it does continue to go up, I will continue to sell. I dont think that the long funds will want to chase the market higher at this point in time as fundamentals have not really changed. As for the Retail players, I dont think that they are really in the HK market yet.
BTW, there's no more incentive for the CBBC issuers to push the HK market higher as they have managed to knock off a lot of the Callable Put Warrants. The objective now of the CBBC issuers, is to push the HK market down to suspend the Callable Bull Warrants. They have been fattening the animal for slaughter. There seems to be a lot of Callable Bull Warrants till 16,000 with the first stop being 16,800.
3, Malaysia
I've decided to sell some of my holdings. The market actions are "confusing" and I cannot "feel" the market situation unlike HK & the US.
For next week, I will be monitoring the following:-
1. May 1: Macau - China's Golden Week (vested Galaxy & Sands China)
2. Apr 30 & May 1 - FOMC Meeting; I think that there would be no change in US interest rates
Finally, I need to remind myself to raise as much Cash as possible. It's "Sell In May & Go Away" time. The Fund Managers and the Traders would be going for their Summer holidays over the next few months and the markets are traditionally slow for the next few months.
In addition, I dont have a good feeling about the markets now so it's time to lower my exposure to Equities. I have done quite a bit of selling this week especially in HK.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (31% from 43% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (15 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; (As of April 26, 2024 @ 2.15 PM)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$84 from US$83 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78; Suspended replenishing.
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2350 from US$2407 from US$2360;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$28 from US$29 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.57 from US$4.49 from US$4.32;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$86 from US$89 from US$89;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$64,463 from US$63,652 last week from US$70,777 two weeks ago @ 2.18 PM on Apr 26, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "42 Fear" from "31 Fear" last week from "61 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5100 from 4967 last week from 5204 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Traded Meta
h. Sold KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17651 from 16224 from 16722;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Traded New Oriental Education
d. Sold 1/4 AIA
e. Sold 1/3 Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
g. Sold 1/2 HS Tech ETF (3033)
h. Sold Zhaojin
i. Sold Sensetime
j. Sold JD
k. Sold Meituan
l. Sold Tencent
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3089 from 3065 from 3019;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 37935 from 37068 from 39524;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1548 from 1551 from 1555:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold MRCB
c. Sold Gamuda
d. Sold Hume Cement
Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Apr 26 @ 2.05 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 156 from 154 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.51 from 3.51 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.07 from 1.06 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8294 from 7.8314 from 7.8369;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.78 from 4.77;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.25 from 7.24 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.48 from 105.97 last week from 105.64
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.69% from 4.62% from 4.52%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.99% from 4.99% from 4.89%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 93.42 from 92.84 from 93.45;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.39 from 75.86 from 76.41;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1743 from 1901 from 1690; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
New Money From The New Month
It will be a new month so new money will be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets next week. Thereafter, various factors will be in play for the various markets:-
1. US Market
I think that it will be driven by the Earnings Season especially the "Forward Guidance". I think that the Inflation and Interest Rates discussions are getting a bit stale.
2. HK market:-
I think that there would probably be some profit taking. It has gone up about 1400 points in the past five sessions. If it does continue to go up, I will continue to sell. I dont think that the long funds will want to chase the market higher at this point in time as fundamentals have not really changed. As for the Retail players, I dont think that they are really in the HK market yet.
BTW, there's no more incentive for the CBBC issuers to push the HK market higher as they have managed to knock off a lot of the Callable Put Warrants. The objective now of the CBBC issuers, is to push the HK market down to suspend the Callable Bull Warrants. They have been fattening the animal for slaughter. There seems to be a lot of Callable Bull Warrants till 16,000 with the first stop being 16,800.
3, Malaysia
I've decided to sell some of my holdings. The market actions are "confusing" and I cannot "feel" the market situation unlike HK & the US.
For next week, I will be monitoring the following:-
1. May 1: Macau - China's Golden Week (vested Galaxy & Sands China)
2. Apr 30 & May 1 - FOMC Meeting; I think that there would be no change in US interest rates
Finally, I need to remind myself to raise as much Cash as possible. It's "Sell In May & Go Away" time. The Fund Managers and the Traders would be going for their Summer holidays over the next few months and the markets are traditionally slow for the next few months.
In addition, I dont have a good feeling about the markets now so it's time to lower my exposure to Equities. I have done quite a bit of selling this week especially in HK.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (31% from 43% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (15 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; (As of April 26, 2024 @ 2.15 PM)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$84 from US$83 last week from US$85 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78; Suspended replenishing.
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2350 from US$2407 from US$2360;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$28 from US$29 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.57 from US$4.49 from US$4.32;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$86 from US$89 from US$89;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$64,463 from US$63,652 last week from US$70,777 two weeks ago @ 2.18 PM on Apr 26, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "42 Fear" from "31 Fear" last week from "61 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5100 from 4967 last week from 5204 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Traded Meta
h. Sold KWEB (China Internet ETF)
2. HK Equities - Higher. 17651 from 16224 from 16722;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Traded New Oriental Education
d. Sold 1/4 AIA
e. Sold 1/3 Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
g. Sold 1/2 HS Tech ETF (3033)
h. Sold Zhaojin
i. Sold Sensetime
j. Sold JD
k. Sold Meituan
l. Sold Tencent
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3089 from 3065 from 3019;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 37935 from 37068 from 39524;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1548 from 1551 from 1555:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold MRCB
c. Sold Gamuda
d. Sold Hume Cement
Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Apr 26 @ 2.05 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 156 from 154 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.51 from 3.51 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.07 from 1.06 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8294 from 7.8314 from 7.8369;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.78 from 4.77;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.25 from 7.24 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.48 from 105.97 last week from 105.64
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.69% from 4.62% from 4.52%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.99% from 4.99% from 4.89%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 93.42 from 92.84 from 93.45;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.39 from 75.86 from 76.41;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1743 from 1901 from 1690; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun May 05, 2024 9:05 am
TOL @ May 5, 2024
Sell in May? Really?
The US Markets have been moving up over the past two weeks and Tom Lee, the uber bull from Fundstrat, is saying that the sell-off is over.
He pointed to five dovish signs that the Fed gave:-
1. The Fed is slowing its pace of quantitative tightening
2. Inflation is pointing lower
3. Rate cuts can coexist with a strong labor market
4. The economy isn't facing stagflation
5. A rate hike is unlikely
As for myself, I'm just trading the US Markets. Whenever a branded counter collapses on poor earnings announcement, I will try to buy it for the 1/3 retracement. So far, I have been lucky with New Oriental Education, Meta and Etsy. Waiting for Cloudflare which I entered on Friday.
As 2/3 of the US companies have already reported earnings, there wont be much opportunity left to trade the US markets. In addition, volume would probably be dwindling down in a few weeks time too due to the summer holidays.
For the HK market, it has moved up about 2200 points in the past 2 weeks or so. The "experts" are now saying that the HK market can touch 19,500 to 20,000 from the current 18,400. Where were these "experts" when the index was at 16,200 just two weeks ago? Did these "experts" ask you to buy at 16,200? If not, why are you listening to them now? Talk is Cheap.
As for myself, the HK market probably moved up after 16,200, on short-covering by the warrant issuers, as they have already made their money by suspending the leveraged call warrants to 16,200. Thereafter, the long funds and the hedge funds probably chase the market up from 16,200 as they were so underweighted HK.
Going forward, do you really think that the hedge funds and long funds would be buying after the HK market has gone up about 14% from just two weeks ago? In addition, cant you see the CBBC issuers salivating and waiting to slaughter the leveraged call warrant holders, all the way to 16,500?
Anyway, I have been selling whatever I can into the HK rally and raising as much Cash as possible.
In addition, fundamentals in HK and China have not really changed over the past two weeks.
For next week, it would probably be the same old, same old. I will continue to sell if the opportunity presents itself.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (28% from 31% last week from 43% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of May 03, 2024 @ 1.30 PM)
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$79 from US$84 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78; Suspended Replenishment;
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2316 from US$2350 from US$2407;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$27 from US$28 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.50 from US$4.57 from US$4.49;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$92 from US$86 last week from US$89 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$59,619 from US$64,463 last week from US$63,652 two weeks ago @ 1.35 PM on May 03, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "40 Fear" from "42 Fear" last week from "31 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5128 from 5100 last week from 4967 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Cloudflare
h. Traded ETSY
i. Sold Alibaba
2. HK Equities - Higher. 18476 from 17651 from 16224;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold 1/2 AIA
d. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
e. Sold HS Tech ETF (3033)
f. Sold Sands China
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3105 from 3089 from 3065;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38236 from 37935 from 37068;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1590 from 1548 from 1551:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on May 03 @ 1.40 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 153 from 156 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.50 from 3.51 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.07 from 1.07 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8128 from 7.8294 from 7.8314;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.78 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.35 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.24 from 7.25 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.10 from 105.48 last week from 105.97
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.58% from 4.69% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.88% from 4.99% from 4.99%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 93.84 from 93.42 from 92.84;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.75 from 76.39 from 75.86;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1774 from 1743 from 1901; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Sell in May? Really?
The US Markets have been moving up over the past two weeks and Tom Lee, the uber bull from Fundstrat, is saying that the sell-off is over.
He pointed to five dovish signs that the Fed gave:-
1. The Fed is slowing its pace of quantitative tightening
2. Inflation is pointing lower
3. Rate cuts can coexist with a strong labor market
4. The economy isn't facing stagflation
5. A rate hike is unlikely
As for myself, I'm just trading the US Markets. Whenever a branded counter collapses on poor earnings announcement, I will try to buy it for the 1/3 retracement. So far, I have been lucky with New Oriental Education, Meta and Etsy. Waiting for Cloudflare which I entered on Friday.
As 2/3 of the US companies have already reported earnings, there wont be much opportunity left to trade the US markets. In addition, volume would probably be dwindling down in a few weeks time too due to the summer holidays.
For the HK market, it has moved up about 2200 points in the past 2 weeks or so. The "experts" are now saying that the HK market can touch 19,500 to 20,000 from the current 18,400. Where were these "experts" when the index was at 16,200 just two weeks ago? Did these "experts" ask you to buy at 16,200? If not, why are you listening to them now? Talk is Cheap.
As for myself, the HK market probably moved up after 16,200, on short-covering by the warrant issuers, as they have already made their money by suspending the leveraged call warrants to 16,200. Thereafter, the long funds and the hedge funds probably chase the market up from 16,200 as they were so underweighted HK.
Going forward, do you really think that the hedge funds and long funds would be buying after the HK market has gone up about 14% from just two weeks ago? In addition, cant you see the CBBC issuers salivating and waiting to slaughter the leveraged call warrant holders, all the way to 16,500?
Anyway, I have been selling whatever I can into the HK rally and raising as much Cash as possible.
In addition, fundamentals in HK and China have not really changed over the past two weeks.
For next week, it would probably be the same old, same old. I will continue to sell if the opportunity presents itself.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (28% from 31% last week from 43% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of May 03, 2024 @ 1.30 PM)
1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$79 from US$84 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78; Suspended Replenishment;
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Lower. US$2316 from US$2350 from US$2407;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Lower; US$27 from US$28 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.50 from US$4.57 from US$4.49;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$92 from US$86 last week from US$89 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$59,619 from US$64,463 last week from US$63,652 two weeks ago @ 1.35 PM on May 03, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "40 Fear" from "42 Fear" last week from "31 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5128 from 5100 last week from 4967 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Cloudflare
h. Traded ETSY
i. Sold Alibaba
2. HK Equities - Higher. 18476 from 17651 from 16224;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold 1/2 AIA
d. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
e. Sold HS Tech ETF (3033)
f. Sold Sands China
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3105 from 3089 from 3065;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38236 from 37935 from 37068;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1590 from 1548 from 1551:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on May 03 @ 1.40 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 153 from 156 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.50 from 3.51 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.07 from 1.07 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8128 from 7.8294 from 7.8314;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.78 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.35 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.24 from 7.25 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.10 from 105.48 last week from 105.97
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.58% from 4.69% from 4.62%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.88% from 4.99% from 4.99%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 93.84 from 93.42 from 92.84;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.75 from 76.39 from 75.86;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1774 from 1743 from 1901; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun May 12, 2024 9:32 am
TOL @ May 12, 2024
The Bears Are Growling Again!
The markets were grinding higher and the bears were growling again including:-
1. Grant Cardone, Real Estate Investor
a. Foresees devastating stock market plunge of 50%
b. Yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days. This scenario has occurred only three times since 1920—in 1929, 1974, and 2009.
c. Following each of these periods, the market experienced declines of more than 50%.
2. Gary Shilling
a. The US will see a recession by year end
b. That could spark a 30% drop in stock market
3. John Hussman, Hussman Funds
a. We are witnessing the bursting of the greatest credit bubble in human history
b. Crashes are direct consequences of the bursting of credit bubbles.
c. The stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash.
d. A market crash as steep as 65% would not be a surprise
As for myself, I've sold whatever I can, into the HK rally. For the counters that I'm keeping, I'm prepared to hold them for another 2 to 3 years.
I dont know whether a crash would be coming but I do see a lot of warning signs. In addition, this is also a traditionally weak period for the markets (May to October).
I will now only buy if there's extremely deep value or if I'm very confident that I can make a quick trade off it. I'm no longer trading borderline opportunities.
I'm raising my Cash level as much as possible. I have sold at least 25 positions over the past 3 week.
I think that the US market has gone up a bit too much, especially the Magnificent Seven. In addition, the US Earnings Season is winding down and there may not be too many opportunities left to trade.
As for HK, it has risen about 3000 points in 3 weeks. Fundamentally, nothing has really changed in that three weeks. So why would one wants to chase this current HK rally?
As mentioned last week, the HK CBBCs issuers are salivating. If they can push the index down, from the current 19,000 to 16,000, they would really be laughing all the way to the bank. There are so many leveraged call warrants just waiting to be knocked off now, Intuitively, 17,500 would be a nice first stop for these warrant issuers.
For next week, there's nothing much happening in the markets so it may be a good time for a "Trading Break". US Earnings Season is winding down and HK has gone up too much already. I have also been too close to the markets over the two months so it may be a good time to step back and rest a bit.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (30% from 28% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 20% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 10, 2024 @ 11.06 AM)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$80 from US$79 last week from US$84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2357 from US$2316 from US$2350;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$27 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.62 from US$4.50 from US$4.57;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$94 from US$92 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$62,868 from US$59,619 last week from US$64,463 two weeks ago @ 11.10 AM on May 10, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "48 Neutral" from "40 Fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5223 from 5128 last week from 5100 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Shopify
2. HK Equities - Higher. 18,476 from 17,651 from 16,224;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3105 from 3089 from 3065;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38236 from 37935 from 37068;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1590 from 1548 from 1551:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on May 10 @ 10.50 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 156 from 153 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.50 from 3.50 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.08 from 1.07 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8155 from 7.8128 from 7.8294;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.74 from 4.74 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.23 from 7.24 from 7.25;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.20 from 105.10 last week from 105.48 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.46% from 4.58% from 4.69%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.82% from 4.88% from 4.99%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.24 from 93.84 from 93.42;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.02 from 76.75 from 76.39;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2166 from 1774 from 1743; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
The Bears Are Growling Again!
The markets were grinding higher and the bears were growling again including:-
1. Grant Cardone, Real Estate Investor
a. Foresees devastating stock market plunge of 50%
b. Yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days. This scenario has occurred only three times since 1920—in 1929, 1974, and 2009.
c. Following each of these periods, the market experienced declines of more than 50%.
2. Gary Shilling
a. The US will see a recession by year end
b. That could spark a 30% drop in stock market
3. John Hussman, Hussman Funds
a. We are witnessing the bursting of the greatest credit bubble in human history
b. Crashes are direct consequences of the bursting of credit bubbles.
c. The stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash.
d. A market crash as steep as 65% would not be a surprise
As for myself, I've sold whatever I can, into the HK rally. For the counters that I'm keeping, I'm prepared to hold them for another 2 to 3 years.
I dont know whether a crash would be coming but I do see a lot of warning signs. In addition, this is also a traditionally weak period for the markets (May to October).
I will now only buy if there's extremely deep value or if I'm very confident that I can make a quick trade off it. I'm no longer trading borderline opportunities.
I'm raising my Cash level as much as possible. I have sold at least 25 positions over the past 3 week.
I think that the US market has gone up a bit too much, especially the Magnificent Seven. In addition, the US Earnings Season is winding down and there may not be too many opportunities left to trade.
As for HK, it has risen about 3000 points in 3 weeks. Fundamentally, nothing has really changed in that three weeks. So why would one wants to chase this current HK rally?
As mentioned last week, the HK CBBCs issuers are salivating. If they can push the index down, from the current 19,000 to 16,000, they would really be laughing all the way to the bank. There are so many leveraged call warrants just waiting to be knocked off now, Intuitively, 17,500 would be a nice first stop for these warrant issuers.
For next week, there's nothing much happening in the markets so it may be a good time for a "Trading Break". US Earnings Season is winding down and HK has gone up too much already. I have also been too close to the markets over the two months so it may be a good time to step back and rest a bit.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (30% from 28% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 20% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 10, 2024 @ 11.06 AM)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$80 from US$79 last week from US$84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2357 from US$2316 from US$2350;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$27 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.62 from US$4.50 from US$4.57;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Higher; US$94 from US$92 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$62,868 from US$59,619 last week from US$64,463 two weeks ago @ 11.10 AM on May 10, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "48 Neutral" from "40 Fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5223 from 5128 last week from 5100 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Shopify
2. HK Equities - Higher. 18,476 from 17,651 from 16,224;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3105 from 3089 from 3065;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38236 from 37935 from 37068;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1590 from 1548 from 1551:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on May 10 @ 10.50 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 156 from 153 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.50 from 3.50 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.08 from 1.07 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8155 from 7.8128 from 7.8294;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.74 from 4.74 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.23 from 7.24 from 7.25;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.20 from 105.10 last week from 105.48 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.46% from 4.58% from 4.69%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.82% from 4.88% from 4.99%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.24 from 93.84 from 93.42;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.02 from 76.75 from 76.39;
Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2166 from 1774 from 1743; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)
by winston » Sun May 19, 2024 9:44 am
TOL @ May 19, 2024
Trading Break
As mentioned last week, I think that it's a good time to take a "Trading Break".
The US Earnings Season is winding down while HK has gone up by quite a bit in the past three weeks.
Having said that, I still traded a few ideas this week as the opportunity was just too tempting eg. Rubber Gloves, Samsonite, Alibaba etc.
Over the years, I have mentioned that it's good to have a trading break every 6 weeks or so.
It helps to give one a detached view of the markets as well as to give one a fresh look at oneself and how one would like to trade for the next few weeks.
If one is too near the markets, one sometimes cannot see the big picture and connect the dots properly.
In such a fast moving world now with so many moving parts and instantaneous news, one must have the ability to think 4 to 5 steps ahead of any event.
In addition, if one is not at a very high mental efficiency, say >90%, one would not be able to make money in this type of fast moving AI driven market.
For the US market next week, Earnings Season is winding down so there would probably be not many trading opportunity left. It's also starting to feel a bit "euphoric" and one can see it in the movement of the meme stocks.
For the HK market, it also feel a bit euphoric. It has already gone up 3500 points in about 3 weeks. I will probably not buy at this level unless there's a very good trading opportunity. In addition, I have already mentioned that the CBBC issuers will make a lot of money if they can bring the market down 3500 points to knock out all the leveraged call warrants.
As for the Malaysian market, it looks like they are focusing on the strong stocks eg. YTL, YTL Power, Sunway, Sunway Construction, Hume Cement Industries, Malaysan Cement etc.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (31% from 30% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 47% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 37% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 17, 2024 @ 9.00 PM)
1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$80 from US$80 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2400 from US$2357 last week from US$2316 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$31 from US$29 from US$27;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$5.02 from US$4.62 from US$4.50;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$91 from US$94 last week from US$92two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$66,438 from US$62,868 last week from US$59,619 two weeks ago @ 9.03 PM on May 17, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "65 Greed" from "48 Neutral" last week from "40 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5303 from 5223 last week from 5128 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Krispy Kreme
2. HK Equities - Higher. 19554 from 18,476 from 17,651;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Traded Samsonite
e. Sold Alibaba
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3154 from 3105 from 3089;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38787 from 38236 from 37935;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1617 from 1590 from 1548:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded Supermax
c. Sold Hartalega
d. Sold 1/6 DNEX
Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on May 17 @ 9.10 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 156 from 156 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.50 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8018 from 7.8155 from 7.8128;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.69 from 4.74 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.23 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.53 from 105.20 last week from 105.10 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.40% from 4.46% from 4.58%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.80% from 4.82% from 4.88%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.47 from 94.24 from 93.84;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.27 from 77.02 from 76.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1817 from 2166 from 1774; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
Trading Break
As mentioned last week, I think that it's a good time to take a "Trading Break".
The US Earnings Season is winding down while HK has gone up by quite a bit in the past three weeks.
Having said that, I still traded a few ideas this week as the opportunity was just too tempting eg. Rubber Gloves, Samsonite, Alibaba etc.
Over the years, I have mentioned that it's good to have a trading break every 6 weeks or so.
It helps to give one a detached view of the markets as well as to give one a fresh look at oneself and how one would like to trade for the next few weeks.
If one is too near the markets, one sometimes cannot see the big picture and connect the dots properly.
In such a fast moving world now with so many moving parts and instantaneous news, one must have the ability to think 4 to 5 steps ahead of any event.
In addition, if one is not at a very high mental efficiency, say >90%, one would not be able to make money in this type of fast moving AI driven market.
For the US market next week, Earnings Season is winding down so there would probably be not many trading opportunity left. It's also starting to feel a bit "euphoric" and one can see it in the movement of the meme stocks.
For the HK market, it also feel a bit euphoric. It has already gone up 3500 points in about 3 weeks. I will probably not buy at this level unless there's a very good trading opportunity. In addition, I have already mentioned that the CBBC issuers will make a lot of money if they can bring the market down 3500 points to knock out all the leveraged call warrants.
As for the Malaysian market, it looks like they are focusing on the strong stocks eg. YTL, YTL Power, Sunway, Sunway Construction, Hume Cement Industries, Malaysan Cement etc.
Risk Management Progress:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (31% from 30% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 47% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 37% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.
3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 17, 2024 @ 9.00 PM)
1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$80 from US$80 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235
2. Gold - Higher. US$2400 from US$2357 last week from US$2316 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236
3. Silver - Higher; US$31 from US$29 from US$27;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$5.02 from US$4.62 from US$4.50;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237
5. Uranium - Lower; US$91 from US$94 last week from US$92two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$66,438 from US$62,868 last week from US$59,619 two weeks ago @ 9.03 PM on May 17, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170
Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "65 Greed" from "48 Neutral" last week from "40 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9
1. US Equities - Higher; 5303 from 5223 last week from 5128 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Krispy Kreme
2. HK Equities - Higher. 19554 from 18,476 from 17,651;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Traded Samsonite
e. Sold Alibaba
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3154 from 3105 from 3089;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade
4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38787 from 38236 from 37935;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade
5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1617 from 1590 from 1548:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded Supermax
c. Sold Hartalega
d. Sold 1/6 DNEX
Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on May 17 @ 9.10 PM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 156 from 156 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.50 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130
4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100
5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8018 from 7.8155 from 7.8128;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.69 from 4.74 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.23 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.53 from 105.20 last week from 105.10 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20
Others
Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225
Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226
Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227
Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.40% from 4.46% from 4.58%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.80% from 4.82% from 4.88%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.47 from 94.24 from 93.84;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.27 from 77.02 from 76.75;
Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1817 from 2166 from 1774; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)
Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11
Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50
Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 110258
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Return to Useful References - Blogs, Websites & Forums, etc.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests