Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 22)

[winston]

TOL @ May 14, 2022

Watchlist.jpg

Time To Update The Buy Watchlist?

From the various commentaries this week, the "experts" are quite convinced that we’re now stuck in a bear market and that we won’t enter a new bull market for a while until:-
1) Inflation cools significantly
2) The Fed turns dovish
3) Treasury yields consolidate at lower levels
4) The Ukraine war ends
5) China ends it's lockdown

So what are the chances of the above happening in the near future?
1. Inflation - Demand destruction will take some time to set in
2. Feds - They are so behind the curve that they will need to continue to raise rates and QT for the few quarters
3. Treasuries Yields - The BOJ's unlimited QE is supporting lower US Treasuries Yields. A slow motion stock market crisis will also helps to lower yields.
4. Ukraine War - Will it end sooner than later?
5. China Lockdown - How long can they realistically lock-down everyone?

As all the "experts" are so bearish, I need to remind myself to start cleaning up my buy watch-list. I have to be ready to buy when things start to turnaround.

I'm also starting to withdraw my FDs whenever they mature. I want to have the fire-power to buy, when things starts to rebound.

Having said that, trying to time the market is an extremely dangerous game, as there are so many moving parts nowadays.

Anyway, one of the signs that Dennis Gartman watches is "capitulation" ie. a drop of about >6% on any of the days on high volume. That would probably be enough to shake off a lot of the short-term traders and may mark the range low for the markets.

Finally, I still have not wrapped my head around why the markets are so bearish. There are no new news.

Inflation, Rising Rates, Quantitative Tightening, High Commodity Prices, Supply Chain Issues, Ukraine War, Covid19 Lockdowns, Valueless Cryptos, Tech Regulations, Stagflation, Possible Recession etc. are not new news.

Maybe the markets are dropping because the traders just want to enjoy the nice weather in the Northern Hemisphere ie. "Sell In May And Go Away".


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (40% from 38% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 10% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 34% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 36% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 20% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Ride-Hailing Companies: DIDI, Uber, Grab
d. Heavy exposure to Tech: Tencent, BABA, Baidu, JD, HS Tech (3033), ASM Pacific, SMH (Semiconductor ETF), TWTR and AMZN
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$110 from US$111 last week from US$104 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1810 from US$1883 from US$1897;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$21 from US$22 from US $23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.17 from US$4.25 from US$4.39;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$50 from US$55 from US$53;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$29448 from US$36029 last week from US$38689 two weeks ago @ 4.38 PM on May 14, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $26812; 8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Extreme Fear 12" from "Fear 31" last week from "Fear 27" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Lower; 4024 from 4123 last week from 4132 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 18
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Bought Twitter
f. Traded Tesla (TSLA)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19906 from 20002 from 21089;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3084 from 3002 from 3047;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3199 from 3292 from 3357;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 26428 from 27004 from 26848;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1564 from 1600 from 1602:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Serba Dynamik


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on May 13 @ 1.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 129 from 131 last week from 130 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 131
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Strong; 3.15 from 3.15 from 3.15;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.69 from 0.71 from 0.71;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.04 from 1.06 from 1.05;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weak. 7.8499 from 7.8499 from 7.8466;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.39 from 4.37 from 4.36;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weak; 1.39 from 1.39 from 1.38;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.79 from 6.67 from 6.61;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.67 from 103.66 from 102.96;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Extreme Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.89% from 3.14% from 2.94%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.60% from 2.73% from 2.73%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank Lifts Key Rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.07 from 96.37 from 97.61;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.72 from 77.59 from 78.53;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3117 from 2718 from 2404; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 70% rise in inflation at 20 year high
e. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ May 22, 2022

pessimism.jpg

When Will Pessimism Peak?

if you have been reading the financial news lately, you would noticed that most of the "experts" are now very bearish including:-

1. Stanley Druckenmiller (Ex lead portfolio manager for George Soro's Quantum Fund): Reveals new bet against the S&P 500

2. Stephen Roach (Ex Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley): The US is headed for stagflation and warns that the markets aren't accounting for massive Fed tightening

3. Mohamed El-Erian (Chief Economist Allianz): The sell-off has entered ‘a new phase’

4. Jeremy Grantham (Co-Founder GMO): Today's bubble is worse than the year 2000. Calls stocks to at least double their losses, predicts a near-term recession and sounds the alarm on a superbubble.

5. Art Cashin (MD UBS): Stocks are now at risk of even deeper sell-off

6. Scott Minerd (CIO Guggenheim Partners): Investors should prepare for a ‘summer of pain’ that looks a lot like the dot-com bubble

7. Goldman Sach: Stocks could fall another 11% to 18%

8. Bank of America: Warns stagflation scenario will tank stocks

9. Barron's: The Bear nears and might not exit the stock market until the S&P sinks to 3000

10. Stephanie Pomboy ( Owner MacroMavens): Sees a profit recession brewing. Her advice: Hunker down in Cash.

And the above are the bearish comments only for a single week! It's as if we are already moving from "Stagflation" to "Recession" already.

Somehow, the "experts" seems to be only focused on the portion of the glass that is half empty and have forgotten to use the current weak markets, to look for opportunities out there including:-

1. Covid Reopening Plays eg. Airlines, Cruises, Hotels, Ride-Hailing, Casinos, Shopping Malls, Theme Parks etc.

2. Rising Interest Rates Plays eg. Banks, Insurance Companies etc.

3. Electric Vehicles Sector - EV Companies, Batteries, Lithium, Copper etc.

4. Commodity Companies - Oil, Natural Gas, Grains, Palm Oil, Base Metals etc.

5. Green Energy Plays eg. Uranium, Solar, Wind, Wave etc.

6. Technology Companies - Prices have fallen and there could be some "good bargains" out there

etc.

Going forward, I need to remind myself to not allow these bears, to bring me down to their level and to stop me from searching for opportunities out there. Prices have fallen and this is the time to clean up the Buy-Watchlist.

For this week, we have the G7 Finance Officials meeting in Germany and their focus were on:-
1. Climate change
2. Ukraine support
3. Food and Energy support for Emerging Markets
4) Inflation and
5) Cryptos

The G7 Finance Officials normally meet a month before the G7 meeting. Anyway, some "experts" are already saying that at the G7 Meeting next month, the Central Banksters would be having a coordinated regulation on Cryptos.

The current market cap of all cryptos is about US$1.3t and if half of it is wiped off suddenly, it could trigger margin calls on the other assets as well. In fact, ECB President Christine Lagarde, mentioned last night, that Cryptos should be regulated as it has no intrinsic value.

Finally, my trading strategy remains the same. This is not a "Buy and Hold" market. This is a "Trading Market".

Therefore, "selling the rip" eg. after a quick 25% rise, is a must. Thereafter, I will take my time to buy back the counter, over the next few weeks as "Market Direction" is weak.

I must also force myself to buy any "good counter" whenever there's big dip, with the aim of selling at the 50% retracement. (It would be a bonus if I can buy at the "25th percentile" of the trading range and thereafter, sell at the "75th percentile"). At the same time, since "Market Direction" is not in my favor, I must be very nimble.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (36 % from 40% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)

a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 37% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 30% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 22% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Ride-Hailing Companies: DIDI, Uber, Grab
d. Heavy exposure to Tech: Tencent, BABA, Baidu, HS Tech (3033), ASM Pacific, SMH (Semiconductor ETF), TWTR and AMZN
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$110 from US$110 last week from US$111 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1845 from US$1810 from US$1883;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$22 from US$21 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.30 from US$4.17 from US$4.25;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$48 from US$50 from US$55;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$29177 from US$29448 last week from US$36029 two weeks ago @ 8.00 AM on May 21, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $26812; 8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Expecting coordinated crypto regulations at the next G7 Meeting in late June, 2022.
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Extreme Fear 11" from "Extreme Fear 12" last week from "Fear 31" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Lower; 3901 from 4024 last week from 4123 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 18
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 24; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Sold 3/4 Grab

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20717 from 19906 from 20002;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded Alibaba
d. Traded Tencent
e. Sold 1/3 Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033)
c. Sold JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3147 from 3084 from 3002;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3241 from 3199 from 3292;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 26739 from 26428 from 27004;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1549 from 1564 from 1600:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 80% Serba Dinamik


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on May 21 @ 9.35 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 128 from 129 last week from 131 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 131
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.18 from 3.15 from 3.15;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.70 from 0.69 from 0.71;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. With the Labor win, China may start to import Commodities again from Australia as well as allowing Chinese tourists and students to go to Australia again.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.06 from 1.04 from 1.06;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8477 from 7.8499 from 7.8499;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weak; 4.39 from 4.39 from 4.37;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.38 from 1.39 from 1.39;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.69 from 6.79 from 6.67;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.15 from 104.67 from 103.66;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Extreme Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.79% from 2.89% from 3.14%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.59% from 2.60% from 2.73%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank Lifts Key Rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.70 from 95.07 from 96.37;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.46 from 76.72 from 77.59;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3344 from 3117 from 2718; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 70% rise in inflation at 20 year high
e. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ May 29, 2022

June.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's going to be a new month again and new funds would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should get a bounce in the markets next week unless the Fund Managers have already spent some of their Cash this week, in anticipation of the inflows.

Thereafter, I think that the markets would continue to be volatile and directionless, for a while longer. Therefore, I must force myself to buy on any steep dip but must also force myself to sell into any strong rally.

BTW, when I think about "Market Direction", I look at two factors ie. Liquidity and Earnings. (Everything else could probably be classified under these two categories).

Currently, I think that Liquidity will be slightly negative due to the coming QT in the US and Europe. However, since we still have unlimited QE in Japan and looser conditions in China, those money from Japan could slightly off-set the tightening in the US.

As for Earnings, let's look at some corporate guidance for Q2 from Fact-Sets:-
1. Companies and analysts have been more negative in their outlooks and estimate revisions for Q2 2022, relative to recent quarters.
2. In terms of earnings guidance, 70% of the S&P 500 companies (62 out of 88) that have issued EPS guidance for Q2 2022, have issued negative guidance.

From the above, we will probably have lower Liquidity and Earnings over the next few quarters. The question now is whether the drop in share prices, has already discounted the lower Liquidity and Earnings over the next few quarters.

Anyway, the recent US$20t drop in global market cap is no small amount. For comparison, the QE program after the Financial Tsunami, was only about US$16t (split about US$4t each in the US, Europe, Japan and China).

Some "experts" are now saying that the selling may be be overdone and that we could be more than mid-way through the "bottoming" process.

As for myself, I have been doing some trading this few weeks. Whenever the market falls steeply, I will force myself to buy and whenever it rallies, I will also force myself to sell.

And in case I get too overconfident, I need to also remind myself of what Michael Burry said recently: "As I said about 2008, it is like watching a plane crash. It hurts, it is not fun and I'm not smiling". (Burry has predicted recently that the next market crash will dwarf the 2008 bust).

Finally, most of my friends and relatives are scared stiff of being in the market. They give me reasons after reasons, on why one should not be in the market. And all of those reasons are already well known eg. Stagflation, Possible Recession, Rising Rates, Lower Margins, Rolling Lockdowns, Supply-Chain issues, Higher Expenses, Ukraine War, QT etc.

My polite reply is that by the time you are not afraid to be in the market, prices would probably have already risen, say 25%. The question is that if you buy that counter now, can it thread water for a while or would it drop by another say 25% before it recovers.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (37% from 36% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 10% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 29% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 25% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Ride-Hailing Companies: DIDI, Uber, Grab
d. Heavy exposure to Tech: Tencent, BABA, HS Tech (3033), ASM Pacific, SMH (Semiconductor ETF), TWTR and AMZN
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$115 from US$110 last week from US$110 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1852 from US$1845 from US$1810;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat. US$22 from US$22 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.32 from US$4.30 from US$4.17;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$48 from US$48 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$28732 from US$29177 last week from US$29448 two weeks ago @ 8.45 AM on May 28, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $26812; 8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Expecting coordinated crypto regulations at the next G7 Meeting in late June, 2022.
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Extreme Fear 21" from "Extreme Fear 11" last week from "Extreme Fear 12" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Higher; 4158 from 3901 last week from 4024 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 20
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 20; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Added to Grab
g. Traded FB

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20697 from 20717 from 19906;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded JD
d. Traded Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033)
e. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
f. Sold Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3130 from 3147 from 3084;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3231 from 3241 from 3199;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 26782 from 26739 from 26428;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1547 from 1549 from 1564:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to Destini


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on May 28 @ 9.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 127 from 128 last week from 129 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 131
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.19 from 3.18 from 3.15;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.72 from 0.70 from 0.69;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.07 from 1.06 from 1.04;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8492 from 7.8477 from 7.8499;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weak; 4.39 from 4.39 from 4.39;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.37 from 1.38 from 1.39;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.70 from 6.69 from 6.79;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.67 from 103.15 from 104.67;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Extreme Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.74% from 2.79% from 2.89%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.48% from 2.59% from 2.60%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank Lifts Key Rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 99.28 from 94.70 from 95.07;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 80.19 from 76.46 from 76.72;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2681 from 3344 from 3117; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 70% rise in inflation at 20 year high
e. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[behappyalways]

For your information....

Watch 1:00 when he talks about money supply...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mGDQ5uVvxmM&t=83s


https://mobile.twitter.com/crossborderc ... 3362718723

[winston]

TOL @ June 5, 2022

Buy.jpg

Eight Reasons Why The Market Will Rally

Investor Place had a recent article on why the markets could be in for a massive rebound and gave eight reasons for it:-

1. First, there’s the positive price action. We’ve now registered three big “up” days for the market in a row, which is impressive. More impressive are the underlying dynamics of these rallies. They’re very “risk-on.” Growth and tech are leading the way. Hypergrowth stocks are surging.

Second, there’s the slowing inflation data. For the first time since late 2020, inflation is slowing. The year-over-year inflation rates in both the PCE and CPI dropped in April, with many economists now calling March “peak inflation” and projecting inflation deceleration throughout the summer.

Third, there are the falling yields. All year long, Treasury yields have been surging, putting downward pressure on equity valuations. But over the past few weeks, yields have been steadily dropping and technically speaking, the all-important 10-year Treasury yield appears to be forming a topping pattern.

Fourth, there’s the dovish evolution of the Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released this week confirm that this Fed is ready and willing to pause rate hikes after July to re-assess economic conditions at that time. In response, the futures market has sliced a whole rate hike over their 2022 expectations for the Fed Funds rate by December.

Fifth, there’s all this insider buying. The insider buy-sell ratio has hit its highest levels since March 2020, and is spiking to levels historically consistent with market bottoms.

Sixth, there’s the improving supply chain situation. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index has shown continued improvement in supply chain disruptions over the past few months and the China COVID-19 lockdown situation appears to be moderating, setting the stage for further supply chain improvements in the coming months.

Seventh, there’s the commodity price pullback. Commodity prices have been spiking all year long. Now, they’re retreating, and they’re retreating across the board by fairly sizable margins.

Eighth, there’s the technical picture. Technically speaking, this market has shown pretty robust support right at the bear market entry level for the S&P 500, which speaks to the buying pressure for stocks below current levels.

Anyway, if one have been listening to the "experts" who were calling for the end of the world, one would have missed the recent big rally:-
1. The S&P 500 was up 5.5% in 3 days recently before it corrected slightly.
2. HK was up 1300 points in 3 days recently before it corrected slightly.

And for this week, there's also no shortage of "experts" trying to sound smart:-
1. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPM - Brace yourself for a potential Super-Hurricane
2. Jane Fraser, CEO of Citi - Europe heading into a recession; US will find it difficult to avoid a recession;
3. Mark Spitznagel, Founder Universa Investments - Corporate-bond breakdown may cause ‘failure’
4. Elon Musk - He's feeling "super uneasy" and wants to fire 10% of his workforce
5. Big Techs MSFT, HP, C3.ai - Strong Dollar is reducing margins
6. S&P Global - Weak macroeconomics and debt issuance

One can spend his / her time listening to the "noise" of these "experts" or one can use this opportunity to identify and then try to pick up some fundamentally strong companies at a good price.

I do not know how long this "bear market" will last but seldom do they last more than a year unless you were in Japanese Equities from 1990 to 2012. ( My gut feel is that things would be probably turning around in 2H 2022).

I can see a shallow Recession on the horizon but I think that prices have already anticipated and reflected that scenario. And by the time one feel confident to buy, prices could have risen by 50% already.

At the same time, I'm not saying that one should be reckless. There are still a lot of issues out there and any one of them can explode at any time. However, that should not freeze one up from researching and looking for good counters to buy.

Being "cautiously bullish" does not mean that you must go out there now and buy whatever. You have to Watch, Wait, Research and only when the "Price is Cheap" and on an Uptrend, only then would you want to start nibbling (Position Sizing).

For this week, I have been Watching, Waiting, Researching and ended up only with one small Purchase.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (38% from 37% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 10% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 30% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 37% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 23% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
c. Heavy exposure to Ride-Hailing Companies: DIDI, Uber, Grab
d. Heavy exposure to Tech: Tencent, BABA, HS Tech (3033), ASM Pacific, SMH (Semiconductor ETF), TWTR and AMZN
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$120 from US$115 last week from US$110 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1854 from US$1852 from US$1845;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat. US$22 from US$22 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.48 from US$4.32 from US$4.30;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$50 from US$48 from US$48;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$29523 from US$28732 last week from US$29177 two weeks ago @ 10.18 AM on June 4, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $26812; 8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Expecting coordinated crypto regulations at the next G7 Meeting in late June, 2022.
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Fear 27" from "Extreme Fear 21" last week from "Extreme Fear 11" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Lower; 4109 from 4158 last week from 3901 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 20
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 20; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21082 from 20697 from 20717;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3195 from 3130 from 3147;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Flat; 3232 from 3231 from 3241;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27762 from 26782 from 26739;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1538 from 1547 from 1549:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Iris


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on June 3 @ 8.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 130 from 127 last week from 128 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 131
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Strong; 3.19 from 3.19 from 3.18;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.73 from 0.72 from 0.70;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.07 from 1.07 from 1.06;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8441 from 7.8492 from 7.8477;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weak; 4.39 from 4.39 from 4.39;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37 from 1.38;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.66 frpm 6.70 from 6.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 101.94 from 101.67 from 103.15;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.92% from 2.74% from 2.79%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.64% from 2.48% from 2.59%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank Lifts Key Rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 98.13 from 99.28 from 94.70;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.23 from 80.19 from 76.46;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2633 from 2681 from 3344; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ June 12, 2022

Bears.jpg

Surviving A Bear Market

Over the past few weeks, there were no shortage of "experts" telling you that we will heading into a "Bear Market" as well as a "Recession".

And for this week, we have the following:-

1. Stanlet Druckenmiller, Ex-Chairman Duquesne Capital: Warning that the ‘Bear Market Has a Ways to Run’ as Fed Hikes Rates

2. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI Strategist: The S&P 500 fueled by an inflation-driven economic contraction, could spiral lower to 2,900, about a 30% plunge from current levels.

3. Lori Calvasina, RBC Head, U.S. Equity Strategy: "We are continuing to bake in a slower economic growth backdrop in 2022-2023 but not a recession yet"

4. CNBC CFO Survey: The recession will hit in the first half of 2023 and the Dow is headed lower.

As for myself, I think that the markets could be oversold so there could be some trading opportunities. Having said that, I sold some holdings early in the week when it was rallying so I'm waiting to replenish my inventory.

Anyway, in view of the various bearish comments all over the place, it may be timely to review a recent article in "The Street", on how to survive a bear market:

1. Raise cash. It is never too late to sell. You can always rebuy. If you rebuy at a higher price, consider it an insurance premium.

2. Don't get sucked into trying to predict the ultimate low. Focus on buying stocks as their chart improves. It is better to be late than early. Only amateurs try to predict exact turning points.

3. Develop a shopping list of stocks that you like fundamentally but wait for some signs that the market agrees with your assessment.

4. Maintain a positive mindset. Bear markets will create terrific opportunities for patient traders and investors.

For next week, we have the FOMC Meeting on June 14 & 15. I dont think that there would be any surprises but in a volatile market. some of the traders may decide to sell first.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (34% from 38% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 22% (9 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 41% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 25% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - High. US$120 from US$120 last week from US$115 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1875 from US$1854 from US$1852;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat. US$22 from US$22 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.28 from US$4.48 from US$4.32;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$52 from US$50 from US$48;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$29204 from US$29523 last week from US$28732 two weeks ago @ 10.38 AM on June 11, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $26812; 8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Expecting coordinated crypto regulations at the next G7 Meeting in late June, 2022.
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Fear 28" from "Fear 27" from "Extreme Fear 21".

1. US Equities - Lower; 3901 from 4109 last week from 4158 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3600; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 20
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 20; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Bought SE
g. Sold DIDI
h. Traded GRAB

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21806 from 21082 from 20697;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Alibaba
d. Sold Tencent
c. Sold China Overseas Land
e. Sold Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033)
f. Sold 1/2 China Merchants Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3283 from 3195 from 3130;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3182 from 3232 from 3231;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27824 from 27762 from 26782;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1494 from 1538 from 1547:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 10 @ 11.20 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 134 from 130 last week from 127 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 134
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Strong; 3.19 from 3.19 from 3.19;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.71 from 0.73 from 0.72;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.07;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8492 from 7.8441 from 7.8492;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weak; 4.40 from 4.39 from 4.39;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.38 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.69 from 6.66 from 6.70;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.18 from 101.94 from 101.67;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.06% from 2.92% from 2.74%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.83% from 2.64% from 2.48%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank Lifts Key Rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.22 from 98.13 from 99.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.94 from 79.23 from 80.19;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2342 from 2633 from 2681; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ June 19, 2022

bsh.jpg

Buy, Sell or Hold?

The markets have been volatile over the past week and the following are some random comments from the various "experts";-
1. The TA "experts" think that the markets can fall further
2. The Trading "experts" think that some "oversold" counters can be traded in the short-term
3. The FA "experts" think that the weak earnings over the next few quarters, are slowly being reflected into prices.
4. The Macro "experts" think that the Fed is trying to remove Demand to reduce Inflation, as they cannot do anything about Supply
5. The Business "experts" are talking about "Recession" instead of just "Stagflation"
6. The Economic "experts" thinks that Feds would need to increase interest rates to about 4%
etc.

As for myself, I still think that it's a "Trading Market". Therefore, I will continue to buy any counters that are on my watchlist that has a steep fall, as long as it's fundamental is fairly intact, with the view of selling it at the 50% retracement.

My Cash Level is still safe (34% of Liquid Assets) and I know most of the stocks that I'm currently trading, quite well. If somehow the trade does not work out, I will not have any problem holding it for the medium term, as I know that I'm buying it at a good price.

If it drops a lot after that, I will probably average down or even double down as long as it's fundamental has not changed. However, this is going against most trading strategies, which normally prefers Stop-Losses and Position Sizing instead of Averaging Down.

At the same time, I'm quite aware of George Soros' "Theory of Reflexivity" that states that the fair price will decline if there is a drastic change to the system. And therefore, one should always have a "Margin of Safety" if trading in a volatile market.

Anyway, my investing strategy is a "rojak" one, with a combination of TA, FA, CANSLIM, Commodities Trading etc., with a lot of influence from Buffett, Peter Lynch, Soros, Templeton, Jim Rogers etc.

Therefore, my investment strategy may come across as quite strange to you, if you are from one of those "pure science school" of investments, compared to my "mixed arts" approach to Investments, Trading and Speculation.

For next week, I will be watching Powell give his twice-yearly report on monetary policy to the U.S. Senate on June 22. Not sure whether he will be tripping the markets again as they are so fragile. And if he does trip up the market again, it could be a trading opportunity again.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (34% from 34% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 12% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 25% (10 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 39% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 25% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$110 from US$120 last week from US$120 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1841 from US$1875 from US$1854;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat. US$22 from US$22 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.01 from US$4.28 from US$4.48;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$49 from US$52 from US$50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$19220 from US$29204 last week from US$29523 two weeks ago @ 8.28 PM on June 18, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Coordinated crypto regulations at G7 (June 26-28, 2022) ?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Extreme Fear 14" from "Fear 28" last week from "Fear 27" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Lower; 3675 from 3901 last week from 4109 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 20; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Bought QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF)
g. Sold SEA (SE)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21075 from 21806 from 21082;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought China Mobile
c. Traded Alibaba
b. Traded Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3317 from 3283 from 3195;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3098 from 3182 from 3232;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 25963 from 27824 from 27762;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1457 from 1494 from 1538:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 17 @ 1.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 134 from 134 last week from 130 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 134
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.18 from 3.19 from 3.19;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.70 from 0.71 from 0.73;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.05 from 1.06 from 1.07;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8499 from 7.8492 from 7.8441;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weak; 4.40 from 4.40 from 4.39;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.39 from 1.38 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.70 from 6.69 from 6.66;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.24 from 103.18 from 101.94;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.23% from 3.06% from 2.92%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.15% from 2.83% from 2.64%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.12 from 95.22 from 98.13;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 73.82 from 76.94 from 79.23;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2462 from 2342 from 2633; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ June 26, 2022

Bulls Bears.jpg

Bull Market Within A Bear Market?

Jim Cramer said recently that it's possible to have a ‘bull market within a bear market’, if these 6 things happen:-
1. Oil prices need to stabilize at levels beneficial for producers and the public
2. Rampant food inflation needs to end
3. Unemployment rates might need to rise to 5% for a couple of quarters
4. Investors need to stop engaging in speculative trading
5. The advance-decline line (breadth) needs to get better
6. Stronger, established firms need to merge with newer “junk” firms

Anyway, the S&P 500 moved 6% in a week and it does feel like a bull market now. And In HK, the China Techs were "also flying".

So where do we go from here? I still think that it's a "Trading Market" and I will continue to trade if the opportunity presents itself. However, I will not be chasing after anything as the global macro situation is deteriorating.

As mentioned, stocks normally moved on two factors:-
1. Liquidity
2. Earnings

For "Liquidity", it's slowly decreasing with the tightening in the US and Europe. In China, there's targeted loosening while in Japan, they will supposedly have "Unlimited QE" (until the Yen collapses?).

As for "Earnings", I think that the it would be decreasing with the worsening economic situation. However, there may be some sectors that could do well and I will need to research those sectors more deeply.

In the past, I have been buying on dips and then selling at the 50% retracement. The theory is that prices can still move up when things go for "bad" to "less bad".

However, if you are at the beginning of an economic slowdown with decreasing Liquidity, things may take longer than expected to rebound. Therefore, I need to remind myself to be not too adventurous anymore with this strategy.

As for next week, it would be interesting to see what is being coordinated at the G7 (June 26 - 28). I think that the following have already been discussed:-
1. New Crypto Regulation
2. Unlimited QE in Japan (without crashing the Yen) - inflating debts away
3. New tool for the Euro Zone as QT have spiked up yields in Spain and Italy


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (34% from 34% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 12% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 26% (10 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 29% (14 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$107 from US$110 last week from US$120 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1828 from US$1841 from US$1875;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat. US$21 from US$22 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.74 from US$4.01 from US$4.28;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$48 from US$49 from US$52;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$21312 from US$19220 last week from US$29204 two weeks ago @ 8.34 PM on June 24, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Coordinated crypto regulations at G7 (June 26-28, 2022) ?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Fear 28" from "Extreme Fear 14" last week from "Fear 28" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Higher; 3879 from 3675 last week from 3901 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 17
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 20; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Bought XLF (Financials ETF)
g. Sold QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF)
h. Sold 80% GRAB

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21719 from 21075 from 21806;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3350 from 3317 from 3283;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3112 from 3098 from 3182;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 26492 from 25963 from 27824;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1437 from 1457 from 1494:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought KLK
b. Bought DNEX
c, Bought MYEG


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 24 @ 3.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 135 from 134 last week from 134 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 134
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.17 from 3.18 from 3.19;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.69 from 0.70 from 0.71;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weak. 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.06;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8390 from 7.8499 from 7.8492;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weak; 4.40 from 4.40 from 4.40;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.39 from 1.39 from 1.38;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.69 from 6.70 from 6.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.30 from 104.24 from 103.18;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.07% from 3.23% from 3.06%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.99% from 3.15% from 2.83%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.03 from 91.12 from 95.22;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.51 from 73.82 from 76.94;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2354 from 2462 from 2342; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 03, 2022

July.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again. Therefore, there should be a spike in the markets from the new money from the new month unless the Fund Managers have already spent the money in advance on Friday.

Thereafter, I think that the markets could be directionless or even trending downwards until the US Earnings Season, starting with JPM on Jul 14.

Even at Earnings Season, some "experts" think that the revenue and earnings have not being revised downwards adequately, to take into account the weaker economy, higher cost of raw materials, rise in interest rates, supply chain disruption etc.

Therefore, it's very likely that the revenue, earnings and forward guidance, for a lot of companies, may disappoint and therefore, hit share prices again.

Anyway, I'm starting to be more careful nowadays. The markets are not behaving well and I need a higher margin of safety before I trade (unless there's a very convincing story).

Finally, for this week, we have the following two "experts" to remind us to be a bit more careful:-

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini: As the next recession will be both stagflationary and accompanied by a financial crisis, the crash in equity markets could be closer to 50%

Big Short Michael Burry: “Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 was down 25-26%, Nasdaq was down 34-35% and Bitcoin was down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there.”


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (35% from 34% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 28% (11 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 38% (11 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 25% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$108 from US$107 last week from US$110 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1813 from US$1828 from US$1841;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$20 from US$21 from US$22;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.61 from US$3.74 from US$4.01;
Support: 3.52; 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$50 from US$48 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Lower. US$19149 from US$21312 last week from US$19220 two weeks ago @ 12.20 PM on Jul 02, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Coordinated crypto regulations at G7 (June 26-28, 2022) ?
g. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Extreme Fear 24" from "Fear 28" last week from "Extreme Fear 14" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Lower; 3825 from 3879 last week from 3675 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 20; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Bought Grab
g. bought Meta Platforms
h. Sold XLF (Financials ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21860 from 21719 from 21075;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Sensetime
d. Bought Tencent
e. Sold Huabao

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3388 from 3350 from 3317;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3096 from 3112 from 3098;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 25936 from 26492 from 25963;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1450 from 1437 from 1457:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on June 24 @ 3.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 135 from 135 last week from 134 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 134
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.16 from 3.17 from 3.18;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.68 from 0.69 from 0.70;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.04 from 1.05 from 1.05;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8463 from 7.8390 from 7.8499;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.41 from 4.40 from 4.40;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.40 from 1.39 from 1.39;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.70 rom 6.69 from 6.70;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.14 from 104.30 from 104.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Extreme Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.89% from 3.07% from 3.23%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 2.84% from 2.99% from 3.15%

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 91.04 from 92.03 from 91.12;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 73.98 from 74.51 from 73.82;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2214 from 2354 from 2462; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 10, 2022

Storm.jpg

When Will The Sky Fall?

Despite the bearish comments from the "experts" over the past few weeks, the sky has still not fallen. In fact, for this week, the US markets were positive.

Anyway, we have a few more bearish comments this week:-

1. Rick Rule: “If we had a period of real interest rates it would certainly cure inflation but it wouldn't cure inflation until it did amazing damage to various balance sheets. I do not believe that the broad equities market will handle multiple rate hikes.”

2. Zero Hedge: 5 Reasons To Expect Higher Interest Rates:
a. Inflation is out of control. Even the government’s official inflation statistics (which understate the situation) are far above current interest rates
b. The federal government must issue a flood of new Treasuries to finance multi-trillion dollar deficits—which are here to stay
c. Sanctions are eroding confidence in the US financial system
d. Foreigners aren’t buying as many Treasuries
e. The Fed is tightening

However, I'm starting to also see some bullish comments:-

1. Fortune: 5 Signs Inflation Could Be Secretly Going Down
a. Oil’s big dip
b. Natural gas, metals, and lumber too
c. Forward-looking inflation expectations
d. A cooling housing market
e. Cracks in consumer spending

2. Investor Place:- 5 Reasons Why Now Is a Great Time to Buy Stocks
a. We are not in an earnings recession. 2Q Est Results: Sales+10%; Earning +4%
b. You can still find accelerating sales and earnings momentum
c. The core rate of inflation may well have peaked four months ago
d. Treasury bond yields may have also peaked
e. The rest of the world is looking to invest in the US

3. Total Wealth: S&P 500 May Be Down 21% But History Says Buy Now
a. Overabundance of negativity and markets are very oversold. Those are contrarian buy signals
b. Massive amount of sidelined money, more, than $4 trillion
c. VIX at 36 has been a solid short-term buy signal. If the VIX gets to 44 (3 standard deviations from its LT mean), institutions will bottom fish

As for myself, I still think that it's a "Trading Market" until 2Q US Earnings Season. Thereafter, we will need to see how the market reacts to the Earning Announcements as well as the Forward Guidance.

Finally, if you are feeling a bit down from the whining and stupidity around you, it's time to review one of the famous quotes from Bruce Lee:-
"To hell with Circumstances. I create Opportunities".


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (34% from 35% last week from 34%two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 50%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 11% (3 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 30% (11 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (10 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 26% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD, MYR and SGD
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$105 from US$105 last week from US$108two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$126;
a. What's the Demand reduction in China? 10%? 1.2m bpd / 12m bpd?
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 86 years old
c. When will Iranian Oil (4m bpd) be available?
d. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
e. SPR release: 1m bpd for 6 months
e. Vested in RH Petrogas, CNOOC
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1741 from US$1813 from US$1828;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX; Zijin (50% Gold)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$19 from US$20 from US$21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.52 from US$3.61 from US$3.74;
Support: 3.52; 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonne by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
e. Vested in Zijin (50% Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$48 from US$50 from US$48;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
d. Not vested

6. Bitcoin: Higher. US$21492 from US$19149 last week from US$21312 two weeks ago @ 9.50 AM on Jul 09, 2022
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
e. Russia-Ukraine War
f. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: "Fear 30" from "Extreme Fear 24" last week from "Fear 28" two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Higher; 3899 from 3825 last week from 3879 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3400; 2800; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 38; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq Forward PE 20; Equivalent Long Term Average 2021
f. Bought Altria (MO)
g. Sold 5/6 Grab
h. Sold Meta Platforms
i. Sold TSLA

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21726 from 21860 from 21719;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 19900; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought CNOOC

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3356 from 3388 from 3350;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3131 from 3096 from 3112;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 26517 from 25936 from 26492;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1426 from 1450 from 1437:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to KLK


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 9 @ 11.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 136 from 135 last week from 135 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 134
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.16 from 3.17 from 3.18;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. How would the reopening affect the exchange rate?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.68 from 0.69 from 0.70;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.04 from 1.05 from 1.05;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8496 from 7.8463 from 7.8390;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.43 from 4.41 from 4.40;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.40 from 1.40 from 1.39;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.70 from 6.70 rom 6.69;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 107.01 from 105.14 from 104.30;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
b. Will higher interest rates affect sales?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - "Fear" from "Extreme Fear" from "Fear"
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.08% from 2.89% from 3.07%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.11% from 2.84% from 2.99%

Interest Rates:-
1. Russian Central Bank lifts key rate to 20%
2. Zimbabwe has world’s highest interest rate at 80%
3. Argentina raises key rate to 47% as inflation hits 20-year high
4. Brazil lifted the Selic to 13.25%
5. 2/10 Inverted
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 92.27 from 91.04 from 92.03;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 74.89 from 73.98 from 74.51;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2067 from 2214 from 2354; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
a. Peru - curfew; violent inflation protests
b. Sri Lanka - riots, protests; power cuts, food and gasoline shortages
c. Kenya - fuel shortage as government delays subsidy; long line ups
d. Turkey - 74% rise in inflation; at 20 year high
e. Argentina - 58% inflation
f. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Lebanon: situation worsening
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=110

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind comments

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