Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of May 27, 2012:-



Tired

I'm actualy quite tired from watching the actions in the market.

And I also cant find any good idea despite working very hard at it.

Maybe it's time for a trading break, since everyone is not going to do be doing anything, until after the election in Grece.


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Flat. US$91 from US$91 last week from US$96 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1566 from US$1591 last week from US$1586 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$28.47 from US$28.65 last week from US$28.89 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.17; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Stronger. 1318 from 1295 last week from 1353 the previous week. Support at 1290, 1280 then 1250 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 18713 from 18952 last week from 19965 the previous week. Next Support at 18600, 18400 then 18000 ? Bought A50 ETF

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2334 from 2345 last week from 2395 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance 2460 ?

4. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2773 from 2779 last week from 2883 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8580 from 8611 last week from 8953 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Weaker. 79.68 from 79.02 last week from 79.93 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4632 from 2.4567 last week from 2.4523 the previous week. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Weaker. 0.9754 from 0.9844 last week from 1.0024 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2515 from 1.2761 last week from 1.2921 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7630 from 7.7666 last week from 7.7658 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.40 from 81.08 last week from 80.30 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.67% from 5.81% last week from 5.51% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.31% from 6.27% last week from 6.01% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.74% from 1.72% last week from 1.85% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Weaker. Outflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$49b from HK$60b last week from HK$55b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Weak

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging - What else is new ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Can you withstand a 25% to 50% drop in your portfolio ?


Others

1. Properties - Why bother at this point in time ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. US Market Direction - Stronger

Will the Black Swan appear again ?

When will Helicopter Ben be firing his last silver bullet ?

These are some of the questions crossing my mind, while I think about taking a trading break ...


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 03, 2012:-


Panic



It has been said that: "If you want to panic, do it early".

Now that the market has dropped for 3 weeks, isnt it a bit too late to be panicking ?

If you have not been correct on the way up, why do you think that you would now be correct on the way down ?

BTW, a full moon would also be appearing on Tuesday


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Weaker. US$83 from US$91 last week from US$91 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1622 from US$1566 last week from US$1591 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested. When will they be considering Gold as a Tier 1 asset under Basel III ? Have the Asian Central Banks been adding to their gold holdings recently ?

3. Silver - Flat. US$28.37 from US$28.47 last week from US$28.65 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.17; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Weaker. 1278 from 1318 last week from 1295 the previous week. Support at 1250 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 18558 from 18713 last week from 18952 the previous week. Next Support at 18400 then 18000 ? No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2373 from 2334 last week from 2345 the previous week. Support at 2285 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Weaker. 2747 from 2773 last week from 2779 the previous week. Just received dividends from Fraser Commercial and Hotung.

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8440 from 8580 last week from 8611 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 77.99 from 79.68 last week from 79.02 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4736 from 2.4632 last week from 2.4567 the previous week. Upcoming GE a concern. Vested.

3. AUD - Weaker. 0.9697 from 0.9754 last week from 0.9844 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2435 from 1.2515 last week from 1.2761 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7605 from 7.7630 last week from 7.7666 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.79 from 82.40 last week from 81.08 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.74% from 5.67% last week from 5.81% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.53% from 6.31% last week from 6.27% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.45% from 1.74% last week from 1.72% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Weaker. Outflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$54b from HK$49b last week from HK$60b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Weak

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

5. Deleveraging - When will they be downgrading the IBs again ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Need to look for a way to put another 10% of my assets outside the financial system. I already have 9% in physical gold. Is that adequate under a Black Swan Event ? I need to also diversify away my SGD assets.


Others

1. Properties - Agile has reduced prices by up to 25% on 10 projects in Guangdong

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. US Market Direction - Weaker

Just when you think that the markets are stabilizing, it dropped some more.

So are you about to press the panic button now ? Is your mind starting to play games with you ?

Is your mind starting to remind you of the Asian Financial Crisis, where you lost about 80% of your assets, measured in USD ? Or the recent Lehman Collapse, where you lost about 60% ?

Is your mind telling you to sell now because you are a brilliant market timer and that you would be able to buy things back later, at a much lower price ?

Before you do anything drastic, do ask yourself whether you have been correct over the past few years.

And if you were not correct over the past few years, why do you think that your Market Timing would be perfect this time ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 10, 2012:-

Margin of Safety



Maybe it's time to go shopping again but with a longer term horizon and a promising near-term catalyst.

However, this European Crisis will probably be a strong Headwind, for quite a while longer.

So unless you can buy something at a very wide "Margin of Safety", it may not be really worth the risk.


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Stronger. US$84 from US$83 last week from US$91 the previous week. Resistance at
US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1594 from US$1622 last week from US$1566 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$28.49 from US$28.37 last week from US$28.47 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.17; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Stronger. 1326 from 1278 last week from 1318 the previous week. Support at 1250 ?

2. HK Equities - Flat. 18502 from 18558 last week from 18713 the previous week. Support at 18000 ? No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2281 from 2373 last week from 2334 the previous week. Support at 2250 then 2200 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 2738 from 2747 last week from 2773 the previous week. Just received dividends from OUE.

5. Japan Equities - Flat. 8459 from 8440 last week from 8580 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Weaker. 79.49 from 77.99 last week from 79.68 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4859 from 2.4736 last week from 2.4632 the previous week. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 0.9920 from 0.9697 last week from 0.9754 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Stronger. 1.2507 from 1.2435 last week from 1.2515 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7582 from 7.7605 last week from 7.7630 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Weaker. 82.43 from 82.79 last week from 82.40 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 5.77% from 5.74% last week from 5.67% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 6.22% from 6.53% last week from 6.31% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.64% from 1.45% last week from 1.74% the previous week.

4. Australia cut rates by 25 bps

5. China cut rates by 25 bps


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows from Outflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$48b from HK$54b last week from HK$49b the previous week.

3.
Sentiment - Stronger

4. Hedge Funds - More than 140 Asia-focused hedge funds shut down last year, while 38 have closed so far in 2012.

5. Deleveraging - Why are they deleveraging now, when the markets are weak ? Why didnt they deleverage when makets were strong, about 2 months ago when they did know that they have to deleverage ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Reminding myself of Ignorance, Arrogance, Greed & Fear


Others

1. Properties - So what's the current yield on your investment property ?

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. US Market Direction - Stronger

The US market had their best week of 2012.

But did it felt like the "best week of 2012" to you ?

Anyway, the shorts didn't know what hit them.

And is that not an "Inverse H&S" that's forming on the charts now ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members"
section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 17, 2012:-




Happy Father's Day !

I dont want to be a party-pooper but IMHO, such days were probably created by the retailers, to drive up their sales.

And maybe today's image above, was also created by the Beer Industry

Anyway, it's not a bad idea to have some beer today.

The weather has been very hot & dry and it has been gloom and doom for quite some time ...


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Flat. US$84 from US$84 last week from US$83 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1627 from US$1594 last week from US$1622 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$28.68 from US$28.49 last week from US$28.37 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$27.17; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Stronger. 1343 from 1326 last week from 1278 the previous week. Support at 1250 ?

2. HK Equities - Stronger. 19234 from 18502 last week from 18558 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2307 from 2281 last week from 2373 the previous week. Support at 2250 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Stronger. 2811 from 2738 last week from 2747 the previous week. Sold Noble. Bought Biosensors.

5. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8569 from 8459 last week from 8440 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.72 from 79.49 last week from 77.99 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4877 from 2.4736 last week from 2.4632 the previous week. Bought some MYR again. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.0081 from 0.9920 last week from 0.9697 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Stronger. 1.2638 from 1.2507 last week from 1.2435 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7598 from 7.7582 last week from 7.7605 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Weaker. 81.59 from 82.43 last week from 82.79 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 5.93% from 5.77% last week from 5.74% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.87% from 6.22% last week from 6.53% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.58% from 1.64% last week from 1.45% the previous week.



Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$46b from HK$48b last week from HK$54b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Stronger

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions.

5. Deleveraging - Why deleverage when the government will lend you cheap money ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Peter Lynch: There's always something to worry about.


Others

1. Properties - DB says that HK property prices may fall as much as 20%, in the next 12 months

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. US Market Direction - Stronger

Two weeks in a row where the market is up. Yet the gloom and doom persists.

Who still does not know that Greece will be having an election this week-end ?

Who still does not know that the BRICs are slowing down ?

So it may be time to go shopping especially when the stock is trading at a good valuation.

When too many people are spending their time on macro events, it may be time to go back to stock-picking.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-


Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members"
section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of June 24, 2012:-



1H Summer Window Dressing

It's Window Dressing time again.

And for next week, maybe the strong stocks will get stronger and the weak stocks, weaker.

So if you are a short-term trader, it may not be a bad idea to sell late next week.

But do you really have the stomach to hold till Friday, in this schizophrenic market ?



The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Weaker. US$80 from US$84 last week from US$84 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1563 from US$1627 last week from US$1594 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$26.85 from US$28.68 last week from US$28.49 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Broke thru Range Low of US$27.17; new Range Low US$26.66; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Weaker. 1335 from 1343 last week from 1326 the previous week. Support at 1250 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 18995 from 19234 last week from 18502 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. Support at 18,800 then 18,500. Bought Evergrande, Lenovo and Zijin.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2261 from 2307 last week from 2281 the previous week. Support at 2250 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 2828 from 2824 from 2811 last week from 2738 the previous week. Bought Guoco Leisure, OUE and Noble.

5. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8798 from 8569 last week from 8459 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Weaker. 80.43 from 78.72 last week from 79.49 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.4959 from 2.4877 last week from 2.4736 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Flat. 1.0064 from 1.0081 last week from 0.9920 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2572 from 1.2638 last week from 1.2507 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7609 from 7.7598 last week from 7.7582 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 82.21 from 81.59 last week from 82.43 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 5.80% from 5.93% last week from 5.77% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 6.38% from 6.87% last week from 6.22% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.67% from 1.58% last week from 1.64% the previous week.



Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Weaker. Outflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$43b from HK$46b last week from HK$48b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Cautious

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions.

5. Deleveraging - The Moody's downgrade was a non-event.

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - If you know the Value of something, then you dont really need to worry about it's Price ?


Others

1. Properties - HK home prices may fall by double digits over the next 12 months, according to Colliers International.

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. Window Dressing - Last week before the close of 1H

4. US Market Direction - Weaker

The 2% drop on Thursday caught a lot of people by surprise.

And I dont think anybody was able to pin it onto anything. eg. weak Chinese PMI numbers, weak US economic data, Europe etc.

Or was it good old fashion profit-taking ?

And if it was, does it not tell you that this is a Trading Market ?

So maybe the strategy is to buy on dips and then sell on the rebound ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members"
section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of July 01, 2012:-



Now What ?

Now that you have had your 1H Window Dressing, what will you be doing ?

Intuitively, I think that the market can still run for a few more days.

And there's also the "New Money" flowing in, from a new month.

However, I also believed that this is a "Trading Market", so I may be selling into any strong rally as I did go shopping recently ...


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Stronger. US$85 from US$80 last week from US$84 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1598 from US$1563 last week from US$1627 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$27.44 from US$26.85 last week from US$28.68 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.66; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Stronger. 1362 from 1335 last week from 1343 the previous week. Support at 1310 ?

2. HK Equities - Stronger. 19441 from 18995 last week from 19234 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. Support at 18,800. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2225 from 2261 last week from 2307 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Stronger. 2878 from 2828 last week from 2824 the previous week. Sold K1 Ventures and 1/2 OUE

5. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9007 from 8798 last week from 8569 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 79.82 from 80.43 last week from 78.72 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.5048 from 2.4959 last week from 2.4877 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.0238 from 1.0064 last week from 1.0081 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Stronger. 1.2662 from 1.2572 last week from 1.2638 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7580 from 7.7609 last week from 7.7598 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Weaker. 81.59 from 82.21 last week from 81.59 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 5.82% from 5.80% last week from 5.93% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Flat. 6.33% from 6.38% last week from 6.87% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 1.64% from 1.67% last week from 1.58% the previous week.


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows from Outflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$42b from HK$43b last week from HK$46b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Stronger

4. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions.

5. Deleveraging - Why deleverage when the politicians are willing to give you free money ?

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - Are you sleeping soundly at night ?


Others

1. Properties - OCBC expects Singapore mass-market prices to rise by 5% and high-end to drop 10%-20%

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade

3. US Market Direction - Stronger

So the market was "mysteriously" strong

And was it 1H Window Dressing or the good news from Europe or both ?

Will you ever know ? And does it really matter ?

As for myself, all I know is that it was up, so it's maybe time to take some profits, unless I really believe that it's a one-way up.




The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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[winston]

TOL as of July 08, 2012:-

Trading Market ?



Just when you thought that the markets are trending higher, the Dow drops 124 points.

So are you now afraid ?

And weren't you beaming with confidence, just yesterday ?

Isn't this not a Trading Market then ?


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Weaker. US$84 from US$85 last week from US$80 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1591 from US$1598 last week from US$1563 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$27.03 from US$27.44 last week from US$26.85 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Weaker. 1355 from 1362 last week from 1335 the previous week. Support at 1310 ?

2. HK Equities - Stronger. 19801 from 19441 last week from 18995 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. Support at 18,800. Sold Evergrande.

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2224 from 2225 last week from 2261 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Stronger. 2878 from 2828 last week from 2824 the previous week. Added to Guocoleisure. Sold Noble and Biosensors

5. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9021 from 9007 last week from 8798 previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 79.68 from 79.82 last week from 80.43 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4994 from 2.5048 last week from 2.4959 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Weaker. 1.0212 from 1.0238 last week from 1.0064 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2287 from 1.2662 last week from 1.2572 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7538 from 7.7580 last week from 7.7609 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 83.28 from 81.59 last week from 82.21 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 6.03% from 5.82% last week from 5.80% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 6.95% from 6.33% last week from 6.38% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.55% from 1.64% last week from 1.67% the previous week.

4. ECB cuts bench-mark interest rate from 1% to 0.75%

5. China cuts the one-year lending rate by 31 bps and the one-year deposit rate by 25 bps


Risk-Off ?

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Outflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$46b from HK$42b last week from HK$43b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Cautious

4. Liquidity - BoE raised its asset-purchase target by 50 billion pounds ($78 billion) to 375 billion pounds

5. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions.

6. Deleveraging - When will the Ratings Agency be lowering the ratings on the banks again ?

7. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

8. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

9. Risk Management - Low VIX: Complacency setting in again


Others

1. Properties - S&P expects Chinese home prices to drop by 5% in 2H 2012. New Chinese property project prices were slashed by 10-20% in the first half of this year

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade. Why fight against the Central Bankers of the world ?

3. US Market Direction - Weaker

Recently, we have been getting some softer US Economic Data.

And not too long ago, the "expert" economists were saying that the US economy was recovering.

Anyway, we now have about 4 more months to the Presidential Election.

So Obama and Helicopter, will need to do something very soon, if they want to keep their jobs.

And they may also be leaning on some of their friends around the world, in some coordinated effort.

Therefore, I may need to be very careful if I want to buy some Inverse ETFs or Puts on the markets. But what do I really know ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members"
section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of July 15, 2012:-





Market Direction

Just when you were about to panic and sell everything, the Dow spiked up 200 points.

Which makes me wonder whether it's really possible for anyone, to predict the Market Direction consistently.

Didn't the "experts" tell you that the US is sinking, Europe is exploding and China is a fraud ?

And not too long ago, didn't the "experts" also tell you that the US Economy was recovering and that the USD was toilet paper ?


The week in review:-


Commodities

1. Oil - Stronger. US$87 from US$84 last week from US$85 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Flat. US$1591 from US$1591 last week from US$1598 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$27.25 from US$27.03 last week from US$27.44 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.


Equities

1. US Equities - Flat. 1357 from 1355 last week from 1362 the previous week. Support at 1310 ?

2. HK Equities - Weaker. 19093 from 19801 last week from 19441 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. Support at 18,800. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2186 from 2224 last week from 2225 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Stronger. 2996 from 2878 last week from 2828 the previous week. Bought Starhill and Noble

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8724 from 9021 last week from 9007 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 79.27 from 79.68 last week from 79.82 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.5174 from 2.4994 last week from 2.5048 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.0231 from 1.0212 last week from 1.0238 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2248 from 1.2287 last week from 1.2662 the previous week.

5. HKD - Weaker. 7.7569 from 7.7538 last week from 7.7580 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Flat. 83.28 from 83.28 last week from 81.59 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 6.06% from 6.03% last week from 5.82% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 6.66% from 6.95% last week from 6.33% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.49% from 1.55% last week from 1.64% the previous week.

4. Brazil cut rates to 8%

5. South Korea cut rates by 25 bps



Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets - Weaker. Outflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$42 from HK$46b last week from HK$42b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Cautious

4. Liquidity: M2 money supply has peaked and is rolling over. And that does not bode well for the Bull market.

5. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions.

6. Deleveraging - Is this still being hyped up, by the short-sellers ?

7. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

8. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

9. Risk Management - How's your allocation to Cash ?


Others

1. Properties - HK: Nomura expects home prices to rise 10% in 2012 and 7% in 2013

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade.

3. US Market Direction - Flat

US Earnings season started strong, as usual. And it's always the half-way point, that is a concern.

So if I'm placing any betting money now, I would probably be going long.

But didn't I mentioned before, that this is a Trading Market ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[kennynah]

of cos, no one can predict the future.

Which makes me wonder whether it's really possible for anyone, to predict the Market Direction consistently.

[winston]

TOL as of July 22, 2012:-




Double-Check

In this type of market, it's timely to remind myself, to double check things.

Do I know WHY I'm buying or selling ?

Have I separated Facts from Impressions ?

How solid is my Analysis ?

How good is my Information ?

Why is someone willing to Sell to me, when I want to Buy ? Why is someone willing to Buy from me, when I want to Sell ?

Do I trust my Judgement ?

What have I Missed ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Stronger

1. Oil - Stronger. US$91 from US$87 last week from US$84 the previous week. Resistance at US$107 ?

2. Gold - Flat. US$1583 from US$1591 last week from US$1591 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$27.30 from US$27.25 last week from US$27.03 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low US$26.25; Resistance at US$38 ? Vested.

4. US Drought: Food inflation in some poor Third World countries, may lead to some problem


Equities - Stronger

1. US Equities - Flat. 1363 from 1357 last week from 1355 the previous week. Support at 1310 ?

2. HK Equities - Stronger. 19641 from 19093 last week from 19801 the previous week. Resistance 19,900. Support at 18,800. No Trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2169 from 2186 last week from 2224 the previous week. Support at 2150 ? Resistance 2460 ? Vested A50 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Stronger. 3016 from 2996 last week from 2878 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8670 from 8724 last week from 9021 the previous week.


Currencies

1. JPY - Stronger. 78.50 from 79.27 last week from 79.68 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.5085 from 2.5174 last week from 2.4994 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD - Stronger. 1.04 from 1.0231 last week from 1.0212 the previous week. Vested

4. EUR - Weaker. 1.2154 from 1.2248 last week from 1.2287 the previous week.

5. HKD - Stronger. 7.7565 from 7.7569 last week from 7.7538 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7521-7.7972. Vested

6. Dollar Index - Stronger. 83.50 from 83.28 last week from 83.28 the previous week.


Interest Rates

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 6.17% from 6.06% last week from 6.03% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 7.27% from 6.66% last week from 6.95% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.46% from 1.49% last week from 1.55% the previous week.



Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets - Stronger. Inflows from Outflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2. Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Flat. HK$42b from HK$42 last week from HK$46b the previous week.

3. Sentiment - Stronger

4. QE3 - Will the market really fly when it is finally being announced ?

5. Hedge Funds - No major redemptions

6. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through in the DMs, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleverag6. ing, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

7. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

8. Risk Management - How much has your counter moved since the bottom of 2008 / 2009 ?


Others

1. Properties
a. HK: DTZ expects prices of small and medium-sized flats to rise 15% this year and those of luxury homes to gain 5-10%.
b. China: UBS thinks that there is still upside potential in the first-tier cities, especially Beijing and Shanghai

2. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No trade.

3. US Market Direction - Flat

After the market has gone up a bit, it has a tendency to look for some bad news.

And on Friday, they found it in the interest rates of Spain.

Anyway, it's still earnings season, so the market may rebound next week, when some of the numbers are above expectation.

I still think that this is a Trading Market and I need to remind myself to act accordingly.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at
your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.