Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 22)

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 27, 2021

New Money From The New Month

The markets have been strong the past few days and I think that it's due to Year-End Window Dressing activities.

I also think that it would continue to be strong until at least the first few days in January.

The "Santa Rally", "January Effect", "Year-End Window Dressing" and the "New Money From The New Month", are all probably be in play now.

Let's revise some of the definitions:-

1. Santa Rally: A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January. There is no generally accepted explanation for the phenomenon. The rally is sometimes attributed to the following:
a. Increased investor purchases in anticipation of the January effect
b. Lighter volume due to holiday vacations makes it easier to move the market higher[
c. A slow down in tax-loss harvesting that depresses prices at the beginning of December
d. Short sellers / pessimistic investors tend to take vacations around the holidays

2. January Effect: The January Effect is the belief that the stock market has a tendency to rise in January more than any other month. While there are many potential causes, it's often said to be a result of investors reentering the market after selling off their stocks at year end to lock in their losses for tax purposes.

Anyway, I still think that the markets could dip after this rally and there could be better buying opportunities later.

Finally, I recently saw "three reasons to sell" and "three more to buy":-

Three Reasons To Sell:-
1. Rolling Lockdowns
2. Rising Inflation and
3. Hawkish Stances by the Central Banksters

Three Reasons To Buy:-
1. Investors learning to live with the virus
2. Limited effects from the Central Bankster's shift and
3. Policy Easing in China


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (36% from 36% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (9 Counters); Bear Market
c. US: 26% (10 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on ETFs Only
d. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$73.72 from US$70.30 last week from US$71.95 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$85 for a long time
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US selling 18m barrels around Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1810 from US$1798 from US$1783;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.91 from US$22.37 from US$22.21;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.41 from US$4.29 from US$4.29;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$43.95 from US$44.10 from US$45.00;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$50751 from US$46812 from US$47975 @ 7.00 AM on Dec 25, 2021)
a. Record: $67,534; Support: $41,827, $29,832
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 40 from 26 from 38

1. US Equities - Higher; 4726 from 4712 from 4538;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 24; Forward PE 22
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. U.S. Equity Market Cap is about 215% of U.S. GDP (highest)
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23224 from 23193 from 23996;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3618 from 3632 from 3666;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3108 from 3112 from 3136;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28782 from 28546 from 28438;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1516 from 1502 from 1489;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Curencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 25 @ 7.15 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 114.44 from 113.72 last week from 113.38 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0858 from 3.0843 from 3.0852;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7223 from 0.7126 from 0.7172;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1322 from 1.1239 from 1.1318;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8000 from 7.8027 from 7.7987;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1949 from 4.2189 from 4.2129;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3594 from 1.3679 from 1.3655;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3670 from 6.3754 from 6.3701;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 96.02 from 96.57 from 96.10;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.49% from 1.41% from 1.48%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.69% from 0.64% from 0.65%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.78 from 107.73 from 108.07;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.16 from 86.37 from 86.63;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2219 from 2379 from 3272; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 02, 2022

Happy New Year!

The markets were relatively strong and I need to remind myself to be a bit careful going forward.

Window Dressing is now over and the next catalyst could be Earnings Season in about 2 weeks time. Therefore, things could be a bit slow over the next few weeks.

In addition, I think that people may be selling into any spike during the Earnings Season rather than buying any dips, unless it's a severe one.

However, the brokers are quite optimistic and the following are from JPM and Charles Schwab:-

JPM: Conditions for a large sell-off are not in place right now given:
1. Already low investor positioning
2. Record buy-backs
3. Limited systematic amplifiers and
4. Positive January seasonals

Charles Schwab:
1. Shortages will turn into gluts ie. inflation may not be a big issue yet
2. Rate hikes will be slower than expected
3. China will go from cracking down to propping up
4. COVID waves may look different
5. Geopolitical surprises

As for myself, I think that the 1H will be a bit choppy, until the rolling lockdowns are over. Therefore, I need to conserve some Cash and will slowly deploy them from May, for the reopening of the economies.

I think that it's still a bit too early to be positioned heavily for the reopening trade. At the same time, there could be some "value plays" and I may take a small position in them so that I can follow their story and then build a bigger position later, in 2H.

The global economic situation is not that great and there are many risks in the markets now. Therefore, I should review my allocations for 1Q 2022:-
1. Maximum exposure to Equities: 40% of Liquid Assets
2. Maximum exposure to Speculation / Risky Trades: 20% of Liquid Assets
3. Maximum exposure to a Sector: 20% of Equities Portfolio
4. Maximum exposure to a Single Company: 10% of Equities Portfolio
5. Maximum exposure to EM; Currency Risk: 65% of Portfolio

In addition, I should also follow my trading rules:-
1. Trailing Stop Loss - 7% to 25%
2. Trading Expiry Time - 3 months
3 Position Sizing
4. To always review the "Long Term Charts", to have a feel of how much a stock has risen over the past 5 years.
5. To review RSI (6 months) for overbought / oversold levels

Finally, I need to also remind myself to be a bit more patient. There's no need to chase any stories. Most of the trading opportunities nowadays are "one day wonders" only. And if there are any "windfall profits", I should take it first else it may not be there the next day.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (36% from 36% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 31% (9 Counters); Bear Market
c. US: 26% (10 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on Large Caps and ETFs
d. Malaysia: 28% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$75.35 from US$73.72 last week from US$70.30 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US selling 18m barrels around Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
f. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
g. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
h. Chinese Expansionism
i. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1830 from US$1810 from US$1798;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$23.36 from US$22.91 from US$22.37;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.46 from US$4.41 from US$4.29;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$42.10 from US$43.95 from US$44.10;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$47486 from US$50751 from US$46812 @ 3.00 PM on Dec 31, 2021)
a. Record: $67,534; Support: $41,827, $29,832
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed from Fear; 61 from 40 from 26

1. US Equities - Higher; 4766 from 4726 from 4712;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4800 ?
b. S&P 500: PE 29 (Dec 28, 2021); Forward PE 27
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. U.S. Equity Market Cap is about 215% of U.S. GDP (highest)
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23398 from 23224 from 23193;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Tencent
d. Traded Alibaba
e. Sold Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3640 from 3618 from 3632;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3124 from 3108 from 3112;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Flat; 28792 from 28782 from 28546;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1568 from 1516 from 1502;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Curencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 31 @ 2.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 115.12 from 114.44 last week from 113.72 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0886 from 3.0858 from 3.0843;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7257 from 0.7223 from 0.7126;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1311 from 1.1322 from 1.1239;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7967 from 7.8000 from 7.8027;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1720 from 4.1949 from 4.2189;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3508 from 1.3594 from 1.3679;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3736 from 6.3670 from 6.3754;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 96.06 from 96.02 from 96.57;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.51% from 1.49% from 1.41%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.74% from 0.69% from 0.64%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.53 from 108.78 from 107.73;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 87.03 from 87.16 from 86.37;

Baltic Dry Index - Flat; 2217 from 2219 from 2379; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 09, 2022

Hunker Down.jpg

Hunkering Down?

Most of the markets were weak (except for HK) and I'm reminding myself to hunker down for a few months.

I'm expecting a strong dip over the next few months so I should try to raise as much Cash as possible.

At the same time, it's also very hard to just sit on Cash as wherever you look, prices have come down quite a bit.

One of the ways to manage my itchy fingers, is to reduce the position size. And lately, my position size is half of my pre-covid trades.

Anyway, i noticed that China Techs have been going up in the US while the
US Techs have been dropping. Is this the start of a rotation from US Techs to China Techs?

Intuitively, I think that it's probably "safe" to trade the big China Techs now.
They have come down quite a bit compared to their US counterparts.

There could be a rolling bottom but the charts are slowly showing "higher lows". However, if the US techs dropped severely, the China Techs would probably not be spared too.

Finally, it's the "same old, same old" story from the "experts" and the following is from Mohamed El-Erian :-
1. Spiking Inflation
2. Rising Interest Rates
3. Stocks at Record Highs


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (37% from 36% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 37% (9 Counters); Bear Market
c. US: 21% (7 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on Large Caps and ETFs
d. Malaysia: 27% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78.89 from US$75.35 last week from US$73.72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US selling 18m barrels around Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
f. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
g. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
h. Chinese Expansionism
i. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1796 from US$1830 from US$1810;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.39 from US$23.36 from US$22.91;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.40 from US$4.46 from US$4.41;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$42.00 from US$42.10 from US$43.95;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$41780 from US$47486 from US$50751 @ 8.30 AM on Jan 8, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $41,827, $29,832
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral from Greed from Fear; 52 from 61 from 40

1. US Equities - Lower; 4677 from 4766 from 4726;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 29 (Dec 28, 2021); Forward PE 27
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
d. Sold Walt Disney

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23493 from 23398 from 23224;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Meituan
d. Bought Geely
e. Traded JD
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Sold Evergrande NEV

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3579 from 3640 from 3618;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3205 from 3124 from 3108;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28479 from 28792 from 28782;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1543 from 1568 from 1516;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 7 @ 6.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 115.84 from 115.12 last week from 114.44 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0966 from 3.0886 from 3.0858;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7158 from 0.7257 from 0.7223;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1306 from 1.1311 from 1.1322;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8004 from 7.7967 from 7.8000;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.2089 from 4.1720 from 4.1949;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3590 from 1.3508 from 1.3594;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3765 from 6.3736 from 6.3670;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 96.16 from 96.06 from 96.02;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.72% from 1.51% from 1.49%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.87% from 0.74% from 0.69%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.49 from 108.53 from 108.78;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.09 from 87.03 from 87.16;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2296 from 2217 from 2219; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 16, 2022

Big Picture.jpeg

The Big Picture (Update)

As the market is getting volatile, it's time to review the "big picture" again.

1. Interest Rates:- The US cannot afford to increase interest rates by too much as they will need to pay more interest on their huge debt. Therefore, Powell will try to hold off increasing interest rates as long as possible. The delay in the "Build Back Better" program is giving Powell some wiggling room.

2. Inflation:- Powell is certainly behind the curve on arresting inflation. However, I think that he has decided that the current inflation is acceptable and will not pose a systemic risk for the time being. If there's a "Stock Market Crash" outside of Powell's control eg. flash crash, natural catastrophe, that would help arrest inflation and Powell may not have to raise interest rates that quickly.

3. USD:- If US interest rates are not rising that quickly then the USD will also not be rising that quickly.

4. Commodities:- If the USD is not rising that quickly then Commodities would probably not fall too much from the current prices. In fact, some Commodities are already bouncing eg. Oil and Copper. If they rise too rapidly, then it could lead to higher inflation later.

5. Liquidity:- There could be Margin Calls from the drop in Bitcoin and the Tech stocks. Supposedly, 1/3 of the Nasdaq stocks have dropped by 50% already.

6. Global Economy:- Muddling through on Covid19 Rolling Lockdowns. I still think that things will only recover in 1Q, 2023. Stagflation is now being discussed.

7. Sentiments:- At 55 (Neutral) on the CNN Fear Greed Index. It has been oscillating from "Extreme Greed" to "Extreme Fear" in a very short time. Normally, this type of situation is not conducive for a sustained rise in the markets.

8. US Earnings:- According to Zacks Research, the average estimate for earnings growth in 4Q is 19% on a revenue increase of 11.6%. However, what matters most is the outlook for the rest of 2022. The biggest risk to the market is a contraction in earnings growth later this year. Estimates for the first quarter are positive but have fallen over the last month and if companies report a more negative outlook than expected, things may not be so good for the markets.

9. US Stock Market:- Getting volatile. People may sell if prices spike up during 4Q Earnings Season.

10. HK Stock Market:- Stabilizing. China Tech is slowly rebounding. So there could be a trading opportunity as long as the US stock-market doesnt crash quickly.

11. Trading Tactic:- No Change. The Market Direction is not in my favour to be long stocks. Therefore, I need to remind myself to be not too adventurous and take unnecessary risk. Instead, I should be lightening my exposure to Equities. So far, I have reduced my exposure to Equities from 37% last week to 32% now.

Things will probably be a bit choppy until 2H 2022 so it's better to hunker down, conserve some bullets and wait patiently to pick up things in a few months time.

My mistake in the last crash was that I bought too early while that bear market lasted a year. By the time, the bear market ended, I was left with not too much Cash to buy.

Finally, I leave you with following quote from William Shakespeare, which I find very useful when investing:-
A fool thinks himself to be wise but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (32% from 37% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 26% (9 Counters); Bear Market
c. US: 24% (7 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on Large Caps and ETFs
d. Malaysia: 32% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$84.28 from US$78.89 last week from US$75.35 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US selling 18m barrels around Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
f. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
g. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
h. Chinese Expansionism
i. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1817 from US$1796 from US$1830;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.99 from US$22.39 from US$23.36;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.43 from US$4.40 from US$4.46;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$45.75 from US$42.00 from US$42.10;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$43310 from US$41780 from US$47486 @ 6.15 AM on Jan 15, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $41,827, $29,832
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral from Neutral from Greed; 53 from 52 from 61

1. US Equities - Lower; 4663 from 4677 from 4766;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 29 (Dec 28, 2021); Forward PE 27
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24383 from 23493 from 23398;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Meituan
d. Sold Geely
e. Sold Tencent
f. Sold 1/2 Ping An
g. Sold 1/2 Vitasoy
h. Sold 1/3 Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3521 from 3579 from 3640;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3282 from 3205 from 3124;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28124 from 28479 from 28792;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1555 from 1543 from 1568;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Curencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Jan 15 @ 6.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 114.23 from 115.84 last week from 115.12 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1000 from 3.0966 from 3.0886;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7208 from 0.7158 from 0.7257;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1412 from 1.1306 from 1.1311;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7856 from 7.8004 from 7.7967;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1780 from 4.2089 from 4.1720;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3478 from 1.3590 from 1.3508;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3525 from 6.3765 from 6.3736;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 95.17 from 96.16 from 96.06;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.79% from 1.72% from 1.51%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.97% from 0.87% from 0.74%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 107.51 from 107.49 from 108.53;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Flat; 86.09 from 86.09 from 87.03;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1873 from 2296 from 2217; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 23, 2022

buy_sell_hold (1).jpg

Buy, Sell or Hold?

The markets have been very volatile and it's probably time to play a bit more Defense.

So a recent article by "The Shark" Deporre, on "Navigating An Ugly Stock Market" is quite helpful:-
1. Forgo the Urge to Predict
2. Operate From a Position of Strength ie. High Cash Level
3. Don't Focus on Trying to Predict the Absolute Bottom
4. If You're Going to Buy an Ugly Market, Do So Very Slowly and Incrementally
5. Keep Watching for New Leadership to Emerge

And if one is too bearish, maybe it's also good to balance that bearishness, by reading a recent article at "Investor Place", on the potential rebound catalysts out there:-
1. Strong earnings can change collective market sentiment ie. refocusing scared investors on the actual strength that’s in this market.
2. If the Fed signals more patience about raising rates considering the effect of Omicron, stock traders are going to jump back in quickly.
3. The U.S. Dollar has been rising in recent days, which makes U.S. assets more attractive.

As for myself, I think that the markets would be quite weak for the next few months so there's no need to chase any story.

I think that the "Dip Buyers" are hurting so whenever there's a dip now, there may not be too many buyers anymore.

Therefore, "cheap can become cheaper" unless the shorts want to buy, to lock in their profits. However, I have never seen a shortist that is not greedy.

As for the "Value Buyers", they may also not surface so soon unless there's a fire-sale.

Anyway, some people are saying that the HK and the US markets, are decoupling. They think that HK (especially the China Techs) can rise while the US market continues to fall.

As for myself, I think that if the US falls sharply, I dont think that HK would be spared either eventhough HK has dropped about 7500 points from the top.

However, if there's a "disorderly decline" in the US then maybe HK can rebound a bit since they have dropped so much. But how often have you seen a "disorderly decline" before?

I have sold whatever Equities that I can already. The rest of my Equities portfolio are "legacy stocks" where I did not cut loss or put a time expiry of 3 months on them. So selling these "legacy stocks" would generate some capital losses that I'm not willing to take at this point in time.

Unless they rebound strongly, then it's not likely that I would be able to sell much Equities anymore. The only worry here is that these "legacy stocks" may also not be spared if there's a bear market even-though they have dropped so much.

Perhaps I should buy some Inverse ETF or Put Warrant to hedge, on the next strong rebound. However, my gut feeling is telling me not to do anything for the next few months but to just ride through this storm, to the reopening of the global economy in 2H.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (31% from 32% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 18% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 26% (9 Counters); Bear Market
c. US: 24% (6 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on Large Caps and ETFs
d. Malaysia: 32% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$84.84 from US$84.28 last week from US$78.89 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US selling 18m barrels around Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
f. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
g. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
h. Chinese Expansionism
i. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1836 from US$1817 from US$1796;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.36 from US$22.99 from US$22.39;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.52 from US$4.43 from US$4.40;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$45.75 from US$45.75 from US$42.00;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$36370 from US$43310 last week from US$41780 @ 6.45 AM on Jan 22, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $29,800
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear from Neutral from Neutral; 43 from 53 from 52

1. US Equities - Lower; 4398 from 4663 from 4677;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 29 (Dec 28, 2021); Forward PE 27
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24966 from 24925 from 24383;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Ping An
d. Sold Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3523 from 3521 from 3579;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3295 from 3292 from 3282;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27522 from 28124 from 28479;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1527 from 1555 from 1543;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 2/3 Sarawak Consolidated


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 21 @ 4.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 113.92 from 114.23 last week from 115.84 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1091 from 3.1000 from 3.0966;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7192 from 0.7208 from 0.7158;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1335 from 1.1412 from 1.1306;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7884 from 7.7856 from 7.8004;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.1858 from 4.1780 from 4.2089;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3459 from 1.3478 from 1.3590;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3400 from 6.3525 from 6.3765;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 95.67 from 95.17 from 96.16;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 1.79% from 1.79% from 1.72%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.02% from 0.97% from 0.87%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 106.62 from 107.51 from 107.49;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 85.43 from 86.09 from 86.09;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1474 from 1873 from 2296; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 29, 2022

cny.jpg

Happy Year of the Tiger!

CNY will be here soon and I would like to take this opportunity to wish you all a Happy & Prosperous Year Of The Tiger!

Hopefully, things will be better in the new CNY as we did have to "toil away" in the last weeks of the "Year of The Ox".

Anyway, in this type of volatile market, I prefer to stand aside and let the "experts" play. I have gone thru a few rounds of this game and I do know that I'm not smart enough to play in this type of markets.

I have sold whatever I can and I'm starting to nibble whenever I see some "value".
However, trying to value something in a declining market is a bit of challenge. George Soros did brilliantly explained it in his "theory of reflexity" ie. cheap becoming cheaper as prices get revised downwards in a declining spiral.

And in case I get too aggressive in my nibbling, the following are 10 Risk Factors in Yahoo Finance recently:-
1. Seasonal weakness; Feb is weak month
2. Geopolitical event eg. Ukraine, North Korea, Taiwan, South China Sea
3. Oil shock; Up 60% over the past year
4. Pandemic-caused economic lockdown
5. Disappointing earnings and outlook
6. Policy change eg. Feds, Corp Tax, Sanctions, "Anti-Growth" in 1H of Mid-Term
7. Chinese economic slowdown vs RRR cut etc.
8. Elevated inflation vs the transitory outlook
9. Big Tech regulation
10. Crypto crash; Margin Calls?

Coming back to the current US Earnings Season, there seems to be a pattern of Wall Street shrugging off strong earnings, while focusing on weaker guidance.

And on "liquidity" front, what matters most seems to be not whether the Fed will raise the overnight rate in March and then again in the second quarter as the traders are already pricing that in.

What is important seems to be whether the underlying fundamentals are still positive.
If a company can continue to grow despite inflation, a rising rate environment and the threat of a slowing economy, then maybe it could go against the downwards market direction. If not, brace yourself.

Anyway, for the longer term, there seems to be a school of thought, that thinks that the markets will continue to go up for the foreseeable future. This is because they think that there's an army of TINA (there's no alternative) retirees.

Intuitively, I think that the army of TINA retirees are now "scared stiff" as they have gone thru a few crashes before and if they dont get it right this round, they will not be having a good retirement. So I think they will also be playing defense and will only buy after the crash and not before.

As for the Crypto Crash, a lot of millennials have now probably lost the downpayment on their first property. And if they are using margins too, they would probably be as "smart" as some of us, who went thru the dot.com bust.

Finally, as there wont be much trading next week, I will be using the down time to think about my current strategy:-
1. Am I sitting on too much Cash (70%)?
2. Where should I deploy them?
a. Time to bet on China?
b. Time to selectively buy in the US?
3. Should I hedge on any rebound? How? Thru Leveraged Inverse ETFs, Leveraged Put Warrants etc?
etc.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (31% from 31% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 28% (9 Counters); Bear Market
c. US: 23% (6 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on Large Caps & ETFs
d. Malaysia: 31% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$87.31 from US$84.84 last week from US$84.28 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US selling 18m barrels around Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
f. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
g. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
h. Chinese Expansionism
i. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1790 from US$1836 from US$1817;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.49 from US$24.36 from US$22.99;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.33 from US$4.52 from US$4.43;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$44.50 from US$45.75 from US$45.75;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$37715 from US$36370 last week from US$43310 two weeks ago @ 2.45 PM on Jan 29, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $29,800
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear 36 from Fear 43 from Neutral 53.

1. US Equities - Higher; 4432 from 4398 from 4663;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 29 (Dec 28, 2021); Forward PE 22
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23550 from 24966 from 24925;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Added to Ali Baba
d. Bought Baidu
e. Bought Hua Bao

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3361 from 3523 from 3521;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3246 from 3295 from 3292;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 26717 from 27522 from 28124;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1520 from 1527 from 1555;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to IGB


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 28 @ 7.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 115.56 from 113.92 last week from 114.23 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0869 from 3.1091 from 3.1000;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.6980 from 0.7192 from 0.7208;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1132 from 1.1335 from 1.1412;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7943 from 7.7884 from 7.7856;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.1900 from 4.1858 from 4.1780;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3574 from 1.3459 from 1.3478;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3614 from 6.3400 from 6.3525;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.35 from 95.67 from 95.17;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.84% from 1.79% from 1.79%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.21% from 1.02% from 0.97%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 105.34 from 106.62 from 107.51;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 84.44 from 85.43 from 86.09;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1302 from 1474 from 1873; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 6, 2022

ESG.jpg

ESG Investing?

Nowadays, we hear a lot about ESG Investing.

Personally, I'm also struggling with it and the following are some of my recent struggles:-
1. Should I buy the Casinos? (Addiction, Social Issues).
2. Should I buy those companies who have a history of being not so transparent even though it could be a good trade? (Governance)
3. Should I buy the Alcohol companies? (Health, Social Issues).
4. Should I buy the Tobacco or Vaping companies? (Health, Social Issues).
5. Should I buy the Firearms and Weapons manufacturers? (Killing, Social Issues).
4. Should I buy the Plantation Companies? (Environmental issues)
5. Should I buy the Pharmaceuticals? ( More sick people, more profits; Addiction; Unnecessary Prescriptions).
6. Should I buy the Meat companies? (Animal Suffering, Environmental).
7. Should I buy the Mining companies? (Environmental Issues).
8. Should I buy the Oil & Gas companies? (Environmental Issues).
9. Should I buy the Soft Drinks and Snacks (Potato Chips) companies? (Health Issues).
10. Should I buy the Hospitals? (More sick people, more profits; Unnecessary Procedures).
`11. Should I buy the Computer Games companies ? (Violence; Social Issues).
12. Should I buy Funeral Homes? (More Covid19 deaths, more profit)
etc.

As you can see from the above, there would be a long list of companies that could not be on my investing radar, if I start to think about the various ESG issues.

And sometimes, in the heat of the trading day, I could have taken a position in a company that may not have fulfilled all of my ESG values.

What should I do then? Do I then have to sell the stock immediately? Or should I sit on it and donate the profits to charity?

The above are some of the things that I have to face when investing recently.

Ideally, I should have thought of the ESG issues before putting the stock on my watchlist.

However, we do not live in an ideal world and many times, things do slip through the crack, especially when you have to make a split second decision when you see a stock gapping up or down.

Over the past few years, I have decided that if I do make money on a not so ESG stock, I will try to donate some of the profits to charity.

And I should try to think more about the ESG issues before putting any stock on my Watchlists.

The above is still WIP (Work in Progress). My values could also change in the future. In the meantime, it does not hurt to think about such issues while I'm researching any counter for my Watchlist.

At the same time, I do drink alcohol and soft drinks, gamble, watch violent movies, eat meat, eat potato chips, uses petrol for my car, uses soap & shampoo, take medication, go to a hospital etc.

And if I can do the above things Moderately, why cant I also Moderately invest in such companies, that are producing such goods and services?


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (33% from 31% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 27% (8 Counters); Big China Techs?
c. US: 27% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs due to Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$91.95 from US$87.31 last week from US$84.84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. Will the US allow Iranian Oil to be be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
e. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
f. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
g. Chinese Expansionism
h. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1809 from US$1790 from US$1836;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat. US$22.51 from US$22.49 from US$24.36;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.51 from US$4.33 from US$4.52;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$43.00 from US$44.50 from US$45.75;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$41300 from US$37715 from US$36370 @ 10.05 AM on Feb 5, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $29,800
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear 35 from Fear 36 from Fear 43.

1. US Equities - Higher; 4501 from 4432 from 4398;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 19
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Bought FB

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24573 from 23550 from 24966;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
d. Sold 1/3 Ali Baba
e. Sold Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3361 from 3361 from 3523;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Bought 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3331 from 3246 from 3295;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27440 from 26717 from 27522;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1523 from 1520 from 1527;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Curencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Feb 5 @ 10.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 115.23 from 115.56 from 113.92;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1058 from 3.0869 from 3.1091;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7071 from 0.6980 from 0.7192;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1449 from 1.1132 from 1.1335;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7882 from 7.7943 from 7.7884;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1795 from 4.1900 from 4.1858;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3457 from 1.3574 from 1.3459;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 6.3610 from 6.3614 from 6.3400;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Lower; 95.49 from 97.35 from 95.67;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.92% from 1.84% from 1.79%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.32% from 1.21% from 1.02%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 104.57 from 105.34 from 106.62;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 83.77 from 84.44 from 85.43;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1423 from 1302 from 1474; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 13, 2022

Buy or Sell.jpg

Do You Know Why You Are Selling Or Buying?

The markets have been volatile and I need to remind myself to be very clear about my investment objectives.

At this point in time, I'm trying to conserve Cash but if a "good" counter has gapped down suddenly, I may buy it for a medium term trade eg. FB, Hua Bao etc.

Anyway, I can now "feel" the fear in the air. Some of my friends who were buying at higher prices (say $5), are now afraid of buying at lower prices (say $2), even-though fundamentals may have improved for that counter.

To me that's illogical but I dont argue with people who are Illogical, Fearful, Greedy, Arrogant, Ignorant, Kiasi or Kiasu. However, Kiasi people can be good traders (if they can cut their losses quickly) but that's another discussion.

If you are afraid too, then there's plenty of "experts" to keep you company:-

1. Vikram Mansharamani: Stock market is starting to ‘show signs of cracking and bursting’ due to explosive growth in Passive Trading, FOMO (fear of missing out) and a blind faith in "Celebrity CEOs".

2. Jeremy Grantham: The market is in a “super bubble” and a collapse has been underway since November. Get out of U.S. stocks, own Commodities & Gold and hold some Cash.

3. Doug Kass: Stocks will fall 15% from Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Supply-Chain woes and a Slowing Economy.

4. Goldman Sachs: Seven rates hike by the Feds in 2022 to control inflation

5. Felix Zulauf: 20%+ Market Drop By Summer Then Bull Market Through 2024

And if you really think that the sky is going to fall from the Ukraine War, Omicron, Rising Interest Rates, Hyperinflation, Stagflation etc. then you may want to think again.

Do you really think that you are able to time the markets and fully understand what Putin is going to do or what the Feds will be doing, as well as estimate the rate of inflation and the growth in the economy?

BTW, at lunch yesterday, there was a father and son, sitting at the table next to us. For the whole of lunch, both of them were discussing the Ukraine War eg. scenarios, consequences, objectives of the war, blah, blah and blah. Both sounded like "experts". What a waste of precious time between a father and son!

And this is not too different from the "experts" around me talking about Omicron, Vaccines, Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, Global Economy, Blah, Blah and Blah.

If you are not able to have a clear crystal ball to predict the future, then you may want to note that a true bear market is very unlikely, while the underlying Fundamentals, Jobs, Wages, Earnings Growth and Liquidity in the system, are all quite positive.

BTW, the following is the latest data from Fact Set:-
As of last Friday, with 56% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results, 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive earnings per share surprise. And 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

So even if there's a "Flash Crash", I think that there would be a quick "V" rebound, as fundamentals are improving (slowly) and things are really not too bad out there ( I hope).

But to be on the safe side, I will be buying aggressively only after May ie. around Summer, for the reopening of the global economy. Therefore, for the next two months or so, I will need to hunker down and watch things from the sidelines.

Finally, it's very difficult to be a full time trader with no trades. For the whole of this week, I have traded only once ie. Alibaba.

I have to constantly remind myself of the "Risks versus Rewards" of the current situation. And if I need more Dopamine in my system, then I will have to get it from other areas and not from the markets, for the time being.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (33% from 33% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Big China Techs?
c. US: 27% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs due to Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$93.93 from US$91.95 last week from US$87.31 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
e. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
f. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
g. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1860 from US$1809 from US$1790;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$23.59 from US$22.51 from US$22.49;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.44 from US$4.51 from US$4.33;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$42.85 from US$43.00 from US$44.50;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$42370 from US$41300 from US$37715 @ 9.10 AM on Feb 12, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $29,800
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear 33 from Fear 35 last week from Fear 36 two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Lower; 4419 from 4501 from 4432;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 19
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24907 from 24573 from 23550;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Traded Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3463 from 3361 from 3361;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3429 from 3331 from 3246;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 27696 from 27440 from 26717;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1579 from 1523 from 1520;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 11 @ 2.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 116.09 from 115.23 from 115.56;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1137 from 3.1058 from 3.0869;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7111 from 0.7071 from 0.6980;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1372 from 1.1449 from 1.1132;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8031 from 7.7882 from 7.7943;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.1887 from 4.1795 from 4.1900;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3453 from 1.3457 from 1.3574;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3635 from 6.3610 from 6.3614;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 96.02 from 95.49 from 97.35;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 2.03% from 1.92% from 1.84%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.59% from 1.32% from 1.21%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 103.57 from 104.57 from 105.34;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 82.95 from 83.77 from 84.44;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1503 from 1423 from 1302; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 20, 2022

Spring Cleaning.png

Spring-Cleaning The Portfolio?

I have been trying to spring-clean my portfolio for the past few weeks.

Coincidentally, there was a very good article on "decluttering your portfolio" in Investor Place recently.

In that article, they quoted Marie Kondo, the decluttering guru, who will only keeps things that are "joyful". Anything else should be discarded.

I tried to apply that to my portfolio but it's not so easy. I have some legacy baggage in portfolio and if I do sell them now, I would have to take a big hit.

That's why for new stocks that I buy, I would try to apply a "Trailing Stop Loss" as well a "Time Expiry of 3 Months". For these new additions to my portfolio, it's easier to sell them if they are no longer "joyful" to keep.

However, for the legacy stocks, I have to go through them individually, to see whether their story is still intact eg. growth, dividends, value, fundamentals, debt level, moat etc.

If yes, I will hold them or even average down.

If not, I will to sell them when the timing is right ie. if there's a strong rebound.

There's also the question of "Opportunity Cost". If I'm holding a dud, that capital employed by that dud, could be used elsewhere for a higher return.

However, since, I'm sitting on a bit of Cash at low interest rates, as well as that I think that the market may correct, the opportunity cost may be a bit lower than if I was fully invested.

Anyway, I need to constantly remind myself to be a bit more careful with my buying, as it's very easy to buy a counter but not so easy to sell later, especially at huge loss.

Hence, a "Trailing Stop Loss" with a "Time Expiry of 3 Months", is a pre-requisite nowadays if I want to buy anything.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (33% from 33% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 28% (9 Counters); Big China Techs?
c. US: 27% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs due to Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$91.80 from US$93.93 last week from US$91.95 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
e. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
f. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
g. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1901 from US$1860 from US$1809;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$23.95 from US$23.59 from US$22.51;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.52 from US$4.44 from US$4.51;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$43.25 from US$42.85 from US$43.00;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$40018 from US$42370 from US$41300 @ 9.52 PM on Feb 19, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $29,800
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk=Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear 37 from Fear 33 last week from Fear 35 two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Lower; 4349 from 4419 from 4501;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 19
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24328 from 24907 from 24573;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3491 from 3463 from 3361;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Spore Equities - Flat; 3429 from 3429 from 3331;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 27122 from 27696 from 27440;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1603 from 1579 from 1523;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Curencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Feb 18 @ 7.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 115.19 from 116.09 last week from 115.23 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.1147 from 3.1137 from 3.1058;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7204 from 0.7111 from 0.7071;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1361 from 1.1372 from 1.1449;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8004 from 7.8031 from 7.7882;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1861 from 4.1887 from 4.1795;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3439 from 1.3453 from 1.3457;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3285 from 6.3635 from 6.3610;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 95.84 from 96.02 from 95.49;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.97% from 2.03% from 1.92%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.49% from 1.59% from 1.32%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Argentina to raise interest rates to 42.5%
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentin ... 16796.html
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 103.24 from 103.57 from 104.57;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 82.77 from 82.95 from 83.77;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1886 from 1503 from 1423; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 27, 2022

march.png

New Money From The New Month

It's going to be a new month next week so normally, there would be a spike in the markets, unless the Fund Managers have already spent their money in advance this week.

Thereafter, I think that the direction of the markets will depend on the Ukraine situation.

If it's a quick war, then things will stabilize very quickly.

If it gets drawn out with complications eg. Cyberwarfare, Chernobyl Fall-Out, Nuclear Weapons, Biological Weapons, European Contagion etc., then things could get quite ugly.

Maybe the hacker's group, Anonymous, who has declared war on Russia, may be able to complicate things for Russia as they dont seemed to be bothered by the sanctions being imposed by the US, UK and Europe. (Cryptos and a Digital Yuan could help).

Under such circumstances, it's better to hunker down and to wait for the situation to play out first, unless things are so cheap that one must buy.

As for my portfolio, I'm about 35% exposed to Equities so it's relatively safe. However, if things go south quickly, that 35% exposure can also be quite painful.

Some "experts" are saying that one should buy now as there's blood on the streets already, as taught by Rothschild. As for myself, I'm not too sure unless I can see that this conflict can end quickly.

Therefore, I may continue to sell whenever there's a chance or will hedge the portfolio with some Inverse ETFs over the next few weeks.

For next week, we have the NPC and CNPCC meetings from March 4. The initial analysis from the "experts", is that they will continue to prop up the Chinese economy through monetary, fiscal and credit support.

They would also likely reiterate their softer stance on deleveraging, enabling more funding to flow to infrastructure and housing, as well as a more flexible implementation of energy-intensity caps. (I'm vested on China through the CSI 300 ETF 3188).

Finally, I need to remind myself that catching falling knives when there's a three-headed monster (Inflation, Rising Rates & Ukraine) lurking close-by, is not so smart a move.

Unless the drop is at least 50% with a high probability of rebound, then it may be safer to wait for another day to catch those falling knives, in case it becomes a falling piano.

Finally, one positive scenario that may emerge from this Ukraine war, is that the Feds may not have to raise interest rates by that much, especially if there's a serious correction in the markets, steep fall in the prices of commodities etc. (BTW, I think that they are working hard to allow Iranian Oil to be available again).

As mentioned in previous blogs, I think that the Feds will try to hold off increasing rates as long as possible, due to the high debt levels of the US.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Safe (35% from 33% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (10 Counters); Big China Techs?
c. US: 22% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 30% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$91.93 from US$91.80 last week from US$93.93 two weeks ago;
Support: US$73; US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. Will the US permit Oil to exceed US$85 for an extended period?
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
e. Will Russia reduce Natural Gas export to Europe?
f. Saudi Instability; King Salman is 86 years old
g. U.S. Environmental Regulations And Infrastructure Legislation
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1891 from US$1901 from US$1860;
Support: 1785; 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.31 from US$23.95 from US$23.59;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 80
b. Industrial Demand
c. Sold SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.48 from US$4.52 from US$4.44;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$43.00 from US$43.25 from US$42.85;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$39330 from US$40018 from US$42370 @ 4.15 PM on Feb 26, 2022)
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $29,800
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear 31 from Fear 37 last week from Fear 33 two weeks ago.

1. US Equities - Higher; 4385 from 4349 from 4419;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 19
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 215% (highest); >140 is Expensive
e. Sold SLV

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22767 from 24328 from 24907;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Alibaba
d. Bought Tencent
e. Traded Baidu
f. Traded Rusal
g. Sold 1/2 ASM Pacific

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3451 from 3491 from 3463;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3296 from 3429 from 3429;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 26477 from 27122 from 27696;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1592 from 1603 from 1579;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to IGB


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 25 @ 5.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 115.28 from 115.19 last week from 116.09 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.1024 from 3.1147 from 3.1137;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7195 from 0.7204 from 0.7111;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1174 from 1.1361 from 1.1372;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8076 from 7.8004 from 7.8031;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.2001 from 4.1861 from 4.1887;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3538 from 1.3439 from 1.3453;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3153 from 6.3285 from 6.3635;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.15 from 95.84 from 96.02;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks; Low Cost Rental projects excluded;
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
c. Developers' M&A loans not limited by the "three red lines" policy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.94% from 1.97% from 2.03%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.56% from 1.49% from 1.59%;

Interest Rates:-
1. Argentina to raise interest rates to 42.5%
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentin ... 16796.html
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 103.65 from 103.24 from 103.57;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 83.14 from 82.77 from 82.95;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2187 from 1886 from 1503; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics