Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 08, 2015

BigOne.jpg

Is this "The Big One" ?

The Dow dropped 278 points on Friday. So is this the start of the big one that the shortists have been patiently waiting for ?

To put things in perspective, a 300 points drop on the Dow is still only a 1.5% drop only.

In the meantime, I still think that it's a Trading Market so any sharp dip should be bought. However, the 278 points drop on Friday is still not sharp enough.

Anyway, I intend to buy aggressively in about 2 weeks time. This is because it will be Options Expiry in about 3 weeks and thereafter, it will be Window Dressing time.

I should also should also sell some of my S&P Short ETF in about 2 weeks time..

And how would the US markets affect the Asian markets ? Can the Asians really decouple from any sharp correction in the US ?


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$50 from US$50 from US$50

2. Gold - Lower. US$1168 from US$1214 from US$1203. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$2.61 from US$2.69 from US$2.60

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2071 from 2105 from 2110

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24164 from 24823 from 24832. Support 23300. Resistance 25300; Bought BBMG. Sold Sands China and CGN.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3241 from 3310 from 3247. Resistance 3400. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3418 from 3403 from 3436. Traded Silverlake Axis

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 18971 from 18798 from 17913

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1807 from 1821 from 1808. Bought MAA. Traded Wintoni.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 121 from 120 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.67 from 2.65 from 2.68. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.77 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.07. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.84 from 2.82 from 2.86. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.08 from 1.12 from 1.14. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7569 from 7.7554 from 7.7589. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 97.72 from 95.25 from 94.25


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Are your Trailing Stop Loss in place ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.24% from 1.99% from 2.11%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Ukraine raised interest rates to 30%
b. India reduced interest rates by 25 bps to 7.5%
c. Brazil increased interest rates to 12.75%

8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 30% (Long 37%; Short 7%) from 29% from 29%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 15, 2015

UE.jpg

Upcoming Events

It was a roller-coaster week for the US market and volatility is now increasing.

So where do we go from here ?

Perhaps we can start by looking at the upcoming events over the next few weeks:-
1. FOMC Meeting (Tues & Weds) - Bullish as long as they stick to their sheepish script
2. Quad Witching (March 20) - Normally Bullish
3. Window Dressing 1Q (March 31) - Normally Bullish
4. New Money from new month of April (first week) - Bullish

So I'm expecting the following:-
1. US Market to be weak early next week then
2. Bounce on the sheepish comments from the Feds on Tuesday & Wednesday then
3. Drops towards the end of the next week until
4. Quad Witching Friday. May remain strong till
5. Window Dressing 1Q then
6. Drop in the first week of April until
7. The new money from the new month of April is deployed and then
8. Drop in the second week of April when people would start thinking of
9. Selling in May and Going Away

Logical script for the market, right ?

And if using logic is the way to make money in the market, you should look at Wintoni listed on the KLSE. It has risen from about 0.08 to around 0.40 in just a few weeks.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$45 from US$50 from US$50

2. Gold - Lower. US$1158 from US$1168 from US$1214. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$2.67 from US$2.61 from US$2.69

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2053 from 2071 from 2105

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23823 from 24164 from 24823. Support 23300. Resistance 25300; Bought Zhaojin, Galaxy, Poly Culture and Nirvana.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3373 from 3241 from 3310. Resistance 3400. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3363 from 3418 from 3403. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19254 from 18971 from 18798

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1782 from 1807 from 1821. Bought MUI. Traded Wintoni.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 121 from 121 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.67 from 2.67 from 2.65. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.76 from 0.77 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.06. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.84 from 2.84 from 2.82. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.05 from 1.08 from 1.12. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7656 from 7.7569 from 7.7554. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 100.18% from 97.72 from 95.25


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Sell when you can, not when you’re forced to.
b. Risk Management happens before the fire.

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.11% from 2.24% from 1.99%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Thailand cut rates by 25bps to 1.75%
b. Korea cut rates by 25 bps to a new record low of 1.75%
c. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 32% (Long 38%; Short 6%) from 30% from 29%. Creeping steadily in contrast to my goal of bringing it down to about 20%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 22, 2015

Volatility

volatility.jpg

Things went according to script last week last week:-
1. US stocks rose when Yellen remained sheepish
2. The market also got a boost from Quad Witching

As mentioned, the following is what I'm expecting over the next few weeks:-
1. Early Next Week, I'm expecting the markets to be slightly weak until
2. Window Dressing activities just before March 31st ( this may be muted as markets have been strong )
3. In early April, there would be one more surge from the new money from a new month.

In view of the above, I should not really short the US markets aggressively until the surge in early April. However, is high valuation a good reason to short something as "high can become higher" ?

In the meantime, the following are on my watchlist:-
1. Gold & Silver
2. Oil
3. Other Commodities
3. Russia
5. Macau

Till date, I have only bought some gold stocks and some Macau plays. it's only a small position and I'm very aware that "cheap can become cheaper".

As for Oil, I still think that it will continue to be weak so I've not bought any Oil stocks nor Russian ETFs. I dont want to be too early to the party as this would be a long drawn out fundamental decline.

As for the Commodities, I think that it would also not be a "V" recovery but a long "U" recovery.

I did not trade Wintoni this week. The price-volume action does not justify the risk vs reward.

I'm bracing myself for some Volatility from mid-April and am watching my exposure to Equities very closely.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$46 from US$45 from US$50

2. Gold - Higher. US$1182 from US$1158 from US$1168. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$17 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$2.75 from US$2.67 from US$2.61

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on an uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2108 from 2053 from 2071

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24375 from 23823 from 24164. Support 23300. Resistance 25300; Bought Nirvana. Sold BBMG and 1/2 Poly Culture

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3617 from 3373 from 3241. Resistance 3400. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3412 from 3363 from 3418. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19560 from 19254 from 18971

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1804 from 1782 from 1807. No Trade.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Bought S&P Short ETF as I think that it was mispriced


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 120 from 121 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.69 from 2.67 from 2.67. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.78 from 0.76 from 0.77. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.07 from 1.06 from 1.06. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.89 from 2.84 from 2.84. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.08 from 1.05 from 1.08. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7576 from 7.7556 from 7.7569. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 97.80 from 100.18 from 97.72


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Are you making your way to the emergency exit now ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty. The latest St Regis penthouse transaction is proof that you can lose a lot in properties.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ? The busy Home Improvement Fair at Mid-valley, shows that people are trying to get things done before the implementation of the GST before Apr 1st
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.93% from 2.11% from 2.24%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Thailand cut rates by 25bps to 1.75%
b. Korea cut rates by 25 bps to a new record low of 1.75%
c. Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 24% (Long 32%; Short 8%) from 32% from 30%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 29, 2015

april.gif

Window Dressing & New Month

It's going to be a new month soon and there would be new money flowing into the market from the new month.

In addition, it's also 1Q Window Dressing time so I should try not to short the market so soon.

US Earnings season is also coming up and it's also normally strong at the beginning of the season. However, this time may be different, as the strong USD may hurt earnings enough to cause a correction in the market.

Finally, the traders would be thinking of 'Selling in May and Going Away" around the next few weeks.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$48 from US$46 from US$45

2. Gold - Higher. US$1198 from US$1182 from US$1158. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Flat. US$2.76 from US$2.75 from US$2.67

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Lower. 2061 from 2108 from 2053 from 2071

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24486 from 24375 from 23823. Support 23300. Resistance 25300; Bought Poly Culture

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3691 from 3617 from 3373. Resistance 3400. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3450 from 3412 from 3363. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19286 from 19560 from 19254

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1814 from 1804 from 1782. No Trade.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Sold some S&P Short ETF


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 120 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.69 from 2.69 from 2.67. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.76 from 0.77 Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.06. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.85 from 2.89 from 2.84. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.05. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7535 from 7.7576 from 7.7556. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 97.26 from 97.80 from 100.18


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Sell when you can not when you’re forced to.
b. Risk Management happens before the fire.

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.96% from 1.93% from 2.11%

7. Interest Rates - Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 27% (Long 33%; Short 6%) from 24% from 32%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of April 05, 2015

earnings (1).jpg

US Earnings Season

We would be hitting US Earnings season soon. Would the high USD affect US earnings this time and therefore, bring the US market down ?

And has the new money from the new month of April being deployed already ?

The US Futures also does not look too strong so it could be a weak open on Monday.

As HK would be closed till Wednesday, I have liquidated some of my HK positions.

Going forward, my gut feel is that there could be one more spike in the US market and that would be the time to short it.

In addition, "Sell in May and Go Away" is fast approaching.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$50 from US$48 from US$46

2. Gold - Higher. US$1201 from US$1198 from US$1185. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US2.73 from US$2.76 from US$2.75

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2067 from 2061 from 2108

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25276 from 24486 from 24375. Support 23300. Resistance 25300; Sold Poly Culture, BBMG, China Cinda, Galaxy and Nirvana. Traded China Overseas Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3864 from 3691 from 3617. Resistance 3400. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3454 from 3450 from 3412. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19435 from 19286 from 19560

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1835 from 1814 from 1804. No Trade.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No trade


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 120 from 119 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.68 from 2.69 from 2.69. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.76 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.03 from 1.06 from 1.07. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.77 from 2.85 from 2.89. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.08. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7524 from 7.7535 from 7.7576. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 96.74 from 97.26 from 97.80


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );
3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Sell when you can not when you’re forced to.
b. Risk Management happens before the fire.

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.84% from 1.96% from 1.93%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Nett Exposure to Equities: 22% (Long 28%; Short 6%) from 24% from 32%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of April 12, 2015

Euphoria.jpg

Euphoria in HK ?

It's so funny watching the behavior of the HK market. People are buying as if there's no tomorrow.

It reminds me of the behavior of Wintoni a few weeks ago. And suddenly, Wintoni's volume contracted and there's no more buying.

Anyway, the talking heads on TV, are saying that the strength in HK was due to the Chinese buying through the SH-HK Connect. However that quota is only $10.5b out of a the turnover of > $200b. So how can the euphoria in HK be really due to the Chinese buying ?

I have a feeling that some of the buying in HK are due to the warrant issuers pushing the HK market up, to touch the Call Price of those Bear Puts. Thereafter, the Bear Puts would be suspended and the holders of those Bear Puts, would be paid the difference between the Strike Price and Call Price, thus incurring a huge loss.

I'm waiting to short HK aggressively. I will be using Bear Puts at leverage of about 50x to do it. However, it's not the time to do it yet. I need to see a "W" or "Triple Top" first before executing. With leverage of 50x, you need to make sure that you are not too early to the party else you would die standing.

The time has come to make a lot of money in the HK market. All my 30 years of trading experience has brought me to this opportunity now. I must wait for the right set-up before executing. Finally, I need to remind myself not to screw up this once in a life-time opportunity.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$52 from US$50 from US$48

2. Gold - Higher. US$1208 from US$1201 from US$1198. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Flat. US$2.73 from US2.73 from US$2.76

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2102 from 2067 from 2061

2. HK Equities - Higher. 27272 from 25276 from 24486. Support 23300. Sold Zhaojin, WH Group and SJM. Traded BYD and Shanghai Pechem.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 4034 from 3864 from 3691. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3472 from 3454 from 3450. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 19908 from 19435 from 19286

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1844 from 1835 from 1814. Bought Wintoni.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded 19562 HSI Put and 65154 HSI Bear Put


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.68 from 2.68 from 2.69. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.77 from 0.76 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.05 from 1.03 from 1.06. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.81 from 2.77 from 2.85. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.06 from 1.09 from 1.09. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7500 from 7.7524 from 7.7535. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 99.35 from 96.74 from 97.26


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric in HK & China; Complacent elsewhere

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Sell when you can not when you’re forced to.
b. Risk Management happens before the fire.

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financingd. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.95% from 1.84% from 1.96%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 18% (Long 24%; Short 6%) from 22% from 24%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of April 19, 2015

Crash in China ?

chinesestock.jpg

The Chinese ETFS dropped about 5% in the US and the HK futures are down about 700 points.

So will it gap down on Monday, in both HK and Shanghai?

And if it does gap down, what would you be doing ? Would you be Buying, Holding or Selling ?

The best minds in the world are now plotting their strategies for Monday. Are you really that smart, to be able to outwit them ?


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$56 from US$52 from US$50

2. Gold - Lower. US$1203 from US$1208 from US$1201. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$2.80 from US$2.73 from US2.73

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Lower. 2081 from 2102 from 2067

2. HK Equities - Higher. 27653 from 27272 from 25276. Support 23300. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 4287 from 4034 from 3864. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3525 from 3472 from 3454. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19653 from 19908 from 19435

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1846 from 1844 from 1835. Sold Wintoni.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 120 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.70 from 2.68 from 2.68. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.78 from 0.77 from 0.76. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.03. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.83 from 2.81 from 2.77. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.08 from 1.06 from 1.09. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7518 from 7.7500 from 7.7524. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 97.45 from 99.35 from 96.74


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric in HK & China; Complacent elsewhere

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management -
a. Sell when you can not when you’re forced to.
b. Risk Management happens before the fire.

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financingd. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.87% from 1.95% from 1.84%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 18% (Long 24%; Short 6%) from 18% from 22%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of April 26, 2015

Sell in May.jpg

Sell in May and Go Away ?

It's been a good year and May is coming up. So would the traders be paring their positions and be going on a nice summer holiday this year ?

Or would they be sticking around this summer and be trying to make some more money by being a momentum player in an extended market ?

Anyway, I can see one more spike in early May as there would be new money entering the market, from the new month of May. And thereafter, buybacks could sustain the US market for a little while more.

Therefore, I will still be buying on any sharp dip but will also be selling into any strong rallies too.

By the way, I'm starting to trade US shares again although it's badly affecting my sleep. This is because I cannot find any more good ideas in Singapore, HK or Malaysia.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$56 from US$52 from US$50

2. Gold - Lower. US$1203 from US$1208 from US$1201. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinium - $1125. I'm starting to monitor platinum as it's now trading below gold. However, if gold collapses, I cant see how Platinum and Silver can survive the collapse.

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.80 from US$2.73 from US2.73

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2118 from 2081 from 2102. Bought Alibaba and XIE Chimer ETF that's listed in HK. XIE Chimer is a new ETF that contains Chinese tech shares that are listed in the US eg. Alibaba, Ctrip, Baidu etc.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28061 from 27653 from 27272. Support 23300. Bought BBMG. Traded China Overseas Land.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 4394 from 4287 from 4034. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3513 from 3525 from 3472. No Trade. Hotung has been steadily rising.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 20020 from 19653 from 19908. No trade

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1863 from 1846 from 1844. No Trade. Noticed that the wife of the CEO of Menang, has been accumulating some shares. Waiting to collect my dividends from MAA on April 30th.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade. Still having some S&P Short ETF


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 119 from 119 from 120. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.68 from 2.70 from 2.68. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.78 from 0.78 from 0.77. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.04 from 1.05 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.80 from 2.83 from 2.81. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.06. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7500 from 7.7518 from 7.7500. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 96.86 from 97.45 from 99.35


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t );

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - Are you really that smart to be able to see all the risks around you ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financingd. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.91% from 1.87% from 1.95%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 20% (Long 26%; Short 6%) from 18% from 18%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 03, 2015

may.jpg

New Month of May

It's a new month again, so there would be new money flowing into the market again. Therefore, we should see one spike upwards in the market around this time.

However, the market did spike upwards on Friday. Was that the spike that we were looking for or would there still be another spike over the next few days ?

Anyway, it's now May and the traders may be going on their vacation. However, with technology now, the traders can still watch the markets while they are on vacation. So it's not really necessary for them to liquidate their entire position before they go on their Summer Vacation.

Intuitively, I can feel that the markets are a bit soft except for HK & China. Therefore, I've raised my cash levels in anticipation of a correction. I'm not really expecting a crash but a 10%-15% correction is not out of expectation. And if a 25% crash does occur, then it would be a bonus. Finally, if the 10%-15% correction does not materialize then I would still continue to hold a higher level of cash as this bull market has been running for quite a few years already.

By the way, most of my friends are also raising their cash levels which leaves me wondering whether I should be more of a contrarian and take more risk especially in HK and Shanghai.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$59 from US$56 from US$52

2. Gold - Lower. US$1177 from US$1184 from US$1203. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - . Higher. $1131 from $1125.

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Higher. US$2.94 from US$2.80 from US$2.73

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2108 from 2085 from 2118. Sold Alibaba and XIE Chimer ETF (3161.HK)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28133 from 28061 from 27653. Support 23300. Sold BBMG.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 4442 from 4394 from 4287. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3487 from 3513 from 3525. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19532 from 20020 from 19653

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1818 from 1863 from 1846. No Trade

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 120 from 119 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.70 from 2.68 from 2.70. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.79 from 0.78 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.05 from 1.04 from 1.05. H 1.36; L 1.045; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.82 from 2.80 from 2.83. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.12 from 1.09 from 1.08. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7523 from 7.7500 from 7.7518. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 95.21 from 96.86 from 97.45


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric in HK & China; Complacent elsewhere

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts ( US$0.5t )

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - How fast can you run when it crashes ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financingd. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.11% from 1.91% from 1.87%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 18% (Long 24%; Short 6%) from 20% from 18%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of May 10, 2015

timetosell.jpg

Time to Sell ?

The US markets has already spiked upwards from the new money of a new month. In the meantime, we also saw a correction in HK and SH this week.

So is it time to really sell in May and go away ?

Intuitively, I still think that there would not be a prolonged crash due to the low interest rates globally, as well as the various QE programs in Europe, China and Japan. Therefore, any sharp correction would probably be shortlived and would be a buying opportunity.

In view of the above, I have decided to go shopping this week and raised my net exposure Equities to about 26% from about 18% last week.

I'm still wary of a Black Swan appearing from nowhere but since most of my friends are also sitting on a lot of cash, it's probably safe to continue trading equities until it's no longer safe. Hopefully, my spidey sense would be tingling when the black swan is about to appear.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$59 from US$59 from US$56

2. Gold - Higher. US$1187 from US$1177 from US$1184. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Platinum - . Higher. $1141 from $1131 from $1125.

4. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

5. Copper - Lower. US$2.91 from US$2.94 from US$2.80

6. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 2118 from 2108 from 2085. Bought Cameco and Chevron. Traded Alibaba.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 27577 from 28133 from 28061. Support 23300. Bought China Merchant Bank, ICBC, Bank of China, BBMG, Shimao and Wasion. Traded China Communication Construction and Air China.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 4206 from 4442 from 4394. Bought A50 2823 in case China is really included into the MSCI.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3452 from 3487 from 3513. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 19379 from 19532 from 20020

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1808 from 1818 from 1863. Bought DGB Asia. Received Dividends from MAA

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 120 from 120 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122. Not vested

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.70 from 2.70 from 2.68. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.79 from 0.79 from 0.78. Not vested

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.04. H 1.36; L 1.04; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.85 from 2.82 from 2.80. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.12 from 1.12 from 1.09. Not vested

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7535 from 7.7523 from 7.7500. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.79 from 95.21 from 96.86


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); Chinese Local Government Debts (US$3t); US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); US Bank Debts (US$60t); Russian Foreign Debts (US$670b); Global Debts (+US$57t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); Declining Money Velocity; ; Stock-Market Cap/GDP (200%); US Oil Capex (US$1t );; Strong USD; Plunging Commodities; Chinese Stocks Margin (300%; US$123b); US Fracking Debts ( US$0.5t ); Emerging Markets US Loans (US$6t ); Margin Debts ( US$0.5t )

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Liquidity, Cash in Corporations (US$2t); Cash in Short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - Europe, Japan & China; US Foreign Funds Repatriation (US$2t)

4. Risk Management - how do you manage Greed, Fear, Arrogance & Ignorance ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% in Sentosa. Private residential down 4%. About 24,000 private homes are sitting empty.
b. Malaysia - 30% of the high-end condos in KL are vacant ?
c. HK - strong demand for new small and medium sized homes due to developer's financing.
d. China - stabilizing at higher end ? Still falling at 2nd Tier Cities and lower end ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.15% from 2.11% from 1.91%

7. Interest Rates: Since Jan 1, 2015, about 24 Central Banks around the world have cut interest rates

8. Net Exposure to Equities: 26% (Long 32%; Short 6%) from 18% from 20%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.