TOL @ May 11, 2025
Calm Between Storms?
The markets have recovered over the past few weeks and I think that it is a good selling opportunity before the next storm.
The Administration is continuously flip-floping here and there. Not sure whether it's the onset of Dementia. They have no more credibility and all the Fund Managers and Business Executives, cant plan for the long term now.
My base case is that there will be a global slowdown, weaker stock-markets, bearish sentiments and the continous selling of US Assets over the next four years.
That does not mean that you cannot trade the markets especially when there's a Special Situation but it means that you will not have much tailwind behind you anymore.
The following are some comments from Money Morning on the current situation:-
Here’s what we’re facing as we head into the summer:
1. Tariffs and Trade Tensions
2. Uncertainty at the Feds
3. Geopolitical Landmines
4. Tax and Fiscal Policy Gridlock
Bottom Line:
1. Prepare but Don’t Panic
2. Protect Your Portfolio from the Summer Swoon
a. Control Losses.
b. Hedge The Portfolio
While I'm preparing for the storm, I need to also remind myself to be not too pessimistic. The Mid-Term Elections will be in Nov 2026 and the Administration do have an incentive to ensure that things do not stay South for too long.
That means that things should be better for the markets about 6 months before the Midterm Elections ie. from April 2026.
That also means that hunkering down for the rest of the year maybe the right thing to do, while the Trade Agreements get signed over the next few months.
Meanwhile, if the market crashes about 1/3, I would seriously consider trading it again. If not, I would probably be hunkering down unless I see a Special Situation.
I have reduced my exposure to Equities to around 32% now, from about 55% not too long ago. The number of counters in my portfolio has also been reduced to about 28 from about 48 counters a few months ago. My goal is to bring it down further to about a 20% exposure to Equities and only 15 counters ( 5 from HK, Malaysia and US each).
I'm also constantly trying to see where the safe havens would be but this time, I cant seemed to find any. Gold and Bitcoin is quite high now and US Assets are being sold. Maybe buying some Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants is the way to go this time.
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (33% from 35% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 34% (10 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 29% (8 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 36% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 10, 2025 @ 6.50 AM)
1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$61 from US$58 last week from US$63 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold - Higher; US$3344 from US$3257 from US$3298;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will "Used Gold" supply be more than Central Banks demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver - Higher; US$33 from US$32 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.65 from US$4.70 from US$4.84;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Uranium - Higher; US$70 from US$69 from US$67;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$102,827 from US$96,681 last week from US$94,587 two weeks ago @ 6.56 PM on May 10, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "62 Greed" from "43 Fear" last week from "35 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities - Lower; 5660 from 5687 last week from 5525 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 4980; 4830; 4100; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5750; 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Fwd PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Bought Chagee
j. Sold Nvidia
2. HK Equities - Higher; 22868 from 22481 from 21980;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Sold Meituan
3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3342 from 3287 from 3295;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1542 from 1509 from 1499:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Natgate
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 10 @ 6.57 AM)
1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 145 from 145 last week from 143 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.31 from 3.28 from 3.33;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.13 from 1.13 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7790 from 7.7555 from 7.7585;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.29 from 4.28 from 4.37;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.31;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.24 from 7.27 from 7.29;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.42 from 99.85 last week from 99.59 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.38% from 4.31% last week from 4.24% two weeks ago;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.90% from 3.83% from 3.76%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 94.55 from 94.57 last week from 94.30 two weeks ago;
HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Flat; 78.55 from 78.54 from 78.30;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
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