Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

Shanghai

Down 2% today. It could be the IPOs but there's news that a lot of companies are selling their equities investments as they dont want to show that they have a big equities exposure, during the year end reporting.

[winston]

TOL as of December 26, 2009:-


Broken Record

My views have not really changed over the past few months and I'm beginning to sound like a broken record. Another sign that old age may be creeping up

Anyway, I still think that the economic recovery is on track. However, the stock-markets may have run a bit ahead of that economic recovery.

I'm not expecting a steep crash but I am also not ruling out a 10% to 15% correction either. When that happens, I will pay more attention to the markets . There's still no strong catalyst for a steep correction though.

At this point in time, I also cant see any upside risk, as the markets have already rallied so much. A strong catalyst that will force the remaining shorts to cover, is also absent.


1) Gold - Waiting for it to continue it's correction down to maybe US$850-US$950.

2) Oil - Waiting for it to correct to maybe US$64-US$68. Iran is the wild card here.

3) Other Commodities - Waiting for the other Commodities to correct as well.

4) Shanghai Equities - Waiting for it to continue it's correction. Next support at 2960?

5) HK Equities - Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, Hua Bao and Cassava Res.

6) HK IPO - Stagged Mobi, Sunac, China Corn & Hontex. Applied for Schramm

7) Spore Equities - Waiting & waiting for a good Conviction Buy idea

8) US Equities - Still expecting it to be range-bound. Still have my Inverse ETF

9) Japan Equities - Stronger than expected. Still expecting a stronger Yen

10) Properties (HK,Spore & China) - The Developers may have some sustaining power until 2H 2011. Transaction volume should be thinning out next year.

11) Swine Flu - Very cold but I have not heard of any major outbreak.

12) Emerging Markets - Waiting for it to correct

13) Iran - Close to the sanction deadline. Would they extend that deadline ?

14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010

15) Mutual Funds - Year End Window Dressing activities

16) US Interest Rates - Still expecting it to rise, sooner than expected

17) USD - Should rally further, to maybe the 50% retracement of about 82

18) Corporate Debts - Dubai, Greece and Spain have changed things

19) Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Useful Reference" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


Another year has come and gone ! Have I wasted this year or has it being a productive one ? What should I use to measure this year ? Money ? Memories ? Knowledge? Wisdom ? Experience ? Accumulation of Good or Bad Karma ? Lack of problems ? Or why bother to measure at all in the first place ?


Happy Boxing Day !


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

[winston]

Market Direction

Expecting it to be trendless with an upward bias until the end of the year. There could also be some Window Dressing activities. It's easier to move things when volume is very low.

Will there be a January effect in 2010 ? Probably but it may be smaller and shorter than your typical January effect. Cash levels held by the funds are quite low but they have not been buying over the past few weeks.


Asian Markets

After the January effect, I see the Asian markets becoming weak, especially from the second half of January. It will continue to weak right up to Chinese New Year. People in HK & China will not want to have a big exposure going into the week-long Chinese New Year holidays. Things may improve after Chinese New Year but I will worry about that later.

==============================

I dont normally look so far ahead or try to predict Market Direction. Instead, I prefer to spend my time looking at Individual companies. However, this is a unique time of the year, hence this market outlook ..

[lithium]

TOL as of December 26, 2009:-

5) HK Equities - Positions in Zhongwang, AMVIG, Hua Bao and Cassava Res.

Hi Winston,

What catalyst do you see on these stocks?

[winston]

1) Zhongwang - the audit report was supposed to be released Dec 5. It's now end of December and the stock has moved downwards sharply in the meantime. Not a good sign but too late to sell now. Still have half my position.

2) AMVIG - trying to catch a falling knife on this one. Expecting their parent company to increase their stake in the company. Not sure what the halt is about though.

3) Hua Bao - positive report from GS. It did moved abit and I still have half my position.

4) Cassave resource - positive results. Under researched. Market leader. Commodity play.

[lithium]

Thanks Winston!

Cassava resources looks interesting. But it's breaking down with increasing volume lately.

[winston]

Is the glass of water, half empty of half full ?

It's a new decade so I wont bore you with any Investment Ideas today. Anyway, my thoughts have not really changed from last week and I dont want to be playing the same broken record.

As it's a new decade, I'm also trying to think of something pleasant to write about. Unfortunately, I dont really have anything that pleasant to write about. It's as if I'm only looking at the half empty part of the glass today.

Maybe it's because another decade has come and gone . And I'm not too sure that the past decade has been that productive for me either. Yes, I may have made some money and gain some experience but so what. It's not like I'm a Billionaire or I have been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize..

As this decade begin, I'm also faced with a few big decisions:-
1) What do I want to do with the second part of my life ?
2) Do I want to go back to the corporate world or do I want to continue with my semi-retirement ? ( It's been a few years already since I went into semi-retirement ).
3) Where do I want to retire ?
4) Where do I want to send my kids for University ?

And just when I have nothing pleasant to write about, I did see two very encouraging news yesterday:-

1) North Korea mentioned that they would like to work together with the US, to have a nuclear free Korean Peninsula. We have heard these speeches before but Peace do start with a few kind words

2) In Gaza yesterday, a few Ultra-Orthodox Jews mentioned that they vehemently opposed to Israel's existence. Maybe that would open the eyes of the people and push them to look for a way to live peacefully with each other In addition, a hardliner like Netanyahu, may have the credibility, to put together a lasting peace deal in the region.

So things are not too bad after all. We can actually see the half full part of the glass, if we really look for it !

Happy 2010 ! May you all be always Healthy, Wealthy, Happy & Lucky !

Take care,
Winston

[winston]

Singapore Portfolio Review

It's been a while since I reviewed my Singapore Portfolio. Maybe there are some dogs in there that I should let loose

1) Fraser Commercial: Waiting for F&N to unlock values. S'pore & Australian Commercial Properties should be ok. Japanese Comm Props may be weak. NTA 0.27 ?

2) Global Investments: Waiting for Temasek to unlock values. NAV 0.35 ?

3) Hotung: NAV US$0.22 ? Tech and Taiwan is doing well. Buybacks are encouraging. Waiting for them to unlock values.

4) K1 Ventures: Waiting for Temasek and Keppel to unlock values. NAV 0.19 ?

5) MFS: NAV 0.19 ? Tech recovering ? Cash/Share = 0.05

6) Saizen: NAV 0.41; Dividends supposedly will resume next quarter. Portfolio is ok unless the Japanese economy crashes. Waiting for them to unlock values.

7) Stamford Land: NAV 0.48; Australia improving; Waiting for Or to unlock values

8) Starhill: NAV 0.8; Buy & Hold; YTL has a history of building value for shareholders; Top Shopping Mall in Singapore and hopefully very soon, KL

Industry Risk: Too many Commercial Properties in portfolio


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

[helios]

WOW. Didn't know Winston rears dogs ....

i think, i can position K1 Venture and Starhill in my [trading] checklist when the opportunity presents itself ... ...

[kennynah]

hahahaha..... i'm lost for words...