Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

by **winston** » Sat Dec 21, 2024 7:46 pm

TOL @ Dec 22, 2024

Has Santa Left Already?

The markets were weak as if what Powell said was unexpected.

Since I was sitting on some Cash, I went Xmas Shopping this week.

Most of the bargains were in HK so I used the market weakness to replenished my HK inventory. The HK market has been a Trading Market, oscillating between Stimulus Expectation and Stimulus Disappointment.

Sometimes I wonder how can the HK players be so stupid. Then I realized that maybe it's only the National Team & Machines that are buying. And any selling is probably by the Machines only. The Fund Managers and the Retail Players are probably not playing the HK market anymore.

Anyway, my exposure to Equities has risen to 44% which is enough for this type of market.

I'm now not expecting the markets to go anywhere until Jan 20th 2025.

I'm not expecting much Window Dressing, Santa Rally or January Effect. if the markets are unexpectedly strong then I will do some selling. I will probably not buy anymore unless there's a steep dip which I'm not expecting.

Merry X'mas to those that are celebrating and Happy Holidays to those that are still working!

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (44% from 34% from 38% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)

a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market

b. HK: 62% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (10 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Dec 21, 2024 @ 08.12 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$69 from US$71 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2645 from US$2676 from US$2655;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$30 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US4.10 from US$4.20 from US$4.20;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$74 from US$77 from US$78;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$97,286 from US$101,489 last week from US$98,298 two weeks ago @ 08.23 AM on Dec 21, 2024
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "28 Fear" from "50 Neutral" last week from "53 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5930 from 6051 last week from 6090 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Bought AMZN
j. Sold GOOGL
k. Sold Eli Lilly
l. Sold UVXY

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19721 from 19971 from 19866;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought New World
e. Added to Vitasoy
f. Added to AIA
g. Added to Alibaba
h. Added to Baidu
i. Added to JD
j. Traded Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3368 from 3392 from 3404;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1591 from 1609 from 1594:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Tan Chong
c. Traded YTL

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 21 @ 5.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 156 from 154 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.33 from 3.30 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.63 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.04 from 1.05 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7788 from 7.7756 from 7.7798;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.51 from 4.45 from 4.42;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.30 from 7.28 from 7.26;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 107.82 from 106.95 last week from 105.88 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.53% from 4.40% last week from 4.15% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.32% from 4.24% from 4.10%;

Interest Rates:-

a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.38 from 96.43 from 96.94;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.58 from 79.41 from 79.77;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 990 from 1055 from 1160; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

by **winston** » Sun Dec 29, 2024 7:42 am

TOL @ Dec 29, 2024

Jan Effect.jpeg

January Effect?

We will be touching 2025 soon so it's timely to review what the "January Effect" is.

Basically, the "January Effect" refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing and renewed investor optimism, at the start of the year.

We also have two more days of "Window Dressing" activities as well as some "New Money From The New Month". Therefore, the US markets should be relatively strong next week. Thereafter, I think that it will not go anywhere until Jan 20, Trump's inauguration.

As the US market is quite overbought, I think that there's a high probability that a dip will occur during the time of Trump's inauguration.

Intuitively, I may buy when it crashes but I need to remind myself that during the Subprime Crisis, the US market did dropped for a year before it bottomed out and things are not really that hot in the US now.

For the HK market, I think that it has probably bottomed out and will be grinding higher slowly over the next few years. It would probably be oscillating between 'Stimulus Noise" and "Trump's Noise" making it a good "Trading Market", as long as the US market does not crash during that time. The next news on any Stimulus would be from the Poliboro Meeting in January.

My exposure to Equities has slowly crept up to 48%. It's slightly more than my imposed limit of 40% for this type of markets but I'm betting that "Window Dressing" activities, the "Santa Rally", the "January Effect" and "New Money From The New Month", will sustain the rally for another week or two. Thereafter, I should try to lower my exposure again, just before Jan 20, Trump's inauguration.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (48% from 44% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 63% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (10 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Mixed; (As of Dec 21, 2024 @ 08.12 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$70 from US$69 last week from US$71 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2636 from US$2645 from US$2676;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$30 from US$30 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.12 from US4.10 from US$4.20;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$70 from US$74 from US$77;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$95,071 from US$97,286 last week from US$101,489 two weeks ago @ 3.57 PM on Dec 27, 2024
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "34 Fear" from "28 Fear" last week from "50 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5971 from 5930 last week from 6051 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Traded UVXY

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20090 from 19721 from 19971;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Tencent
e. Added to JD
f. Sold 1/4 Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3400 from 3368 from 3392;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1628 from 1591 from 1609:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Gamuda
c. Added to DNEX

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 27 @ 3.46 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 158 from 156 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.30 from 3.33 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.62 from 0.63 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.04 from 1.04 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7620 from 7.7788 from 7.7756;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.48 from 4.51 from 4.45;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.30 from 7.30 from 7.28;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 108.16 from 107.82 last week from 106.95 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.63% from 4.53% last week from 4.40% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.33% from 4.32% from 4.24%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.67 from 95.38 from 96.43;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.73 from 78.58 from 79.41;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 997 from 990 from 1055; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 05, 2025 7:43 am

TOL @ Jan 05, 2025

Big Picture.jpeg

The Big Picture (Update)

It has been a few months since I looked at the "Big Picture" so it's timely to look at it now before Trump's inauguration.

1. Interest Rates:- The consensus thinking is that the Feds will not be reducing rates as much as expected. However, I'm not sure that the Feds can withstand the pressure from Trump especially when we have the following:-
a. Things are rapidly slowing down in the US
b. The US government has a huge debt to service

2. Inflation:- The consensus thinking is that Trump will be creating some inflation with his tariffs so interest rates cannot be greatly reduced.

3. USD:- May continue to be strong as interest rates may stay elevated for a while longer. TINA to the USD?

4. Commodities:- If the USD remains strong, the price of Commodities will be weak unless there's a najor supply problem. Demand for Commodities will continue to be weak especially from China.

5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is now adding to the world's Liquidity while Japan may be withdrawing some Liquidity.

6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here. The consensus thinking is that Trump may be able to stop both wars.

7. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" is starting to weaken. If they suddenly collapse then they would be bringing the US indices down with them.
b. China: The "National Team" will continue to support when the China market is weak
c. HK: Good Trading Market. Oscillating between "Stimulus Noise" and "Trump's Noise".

8. US Earnings:- Forward guidance is not that strong and some "experts" are talking of a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets.

9. Trading Tactic:- I need to remind myself to trade bigger and less often. I'm also trying to reduce the number of counters in my portfolio, currently at 32. I will probably be continuing to buy on any steep dip for the 50% retracement.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (45% from 48% last week from 44% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters; Currently 32;
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 70% (18 Counters); Trading Market; Need to reduce exposure;
c. US: 20% (9 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 10% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk On; (As of Jan 4, 2025 @ 08.12 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74 from US$70 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2655 from US$2636 from US$2645;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$30 from US$30 from US$30;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.07 from US$4.12 from US4.10;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$75 from US$70 from US$74;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$97,945 from US$95,071 last week from US$97,286 two weeks ago @ 08.56 AM on Jan 4, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "32 Fear" from "34 Fear" last week from "28 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5942 from 5971 last week from 5930 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19760 from 20090 from 19721;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Added to 3188 (CSI 300 China ETF)
e. Bought Sands China
f. Bought SMIC
g. Traded Sunart Retail
h. Sold 1/3 Alibaba
i. Sold New World Dev

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3211 from 3400 from 3368;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Added to 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1629 from 1628 from 1591:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold Gamuda
c. Sold DNEX
d. Sold Tan Chong
e. Sold 1/3 PUC

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 04 @ 2.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 157 from 158 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.29 from 3.30 from 3.33;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.62 from 0.62 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.03 from 1.04 from 1.04;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7758 from 7.7620 from 7.7788;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.50 from 4.48 from 4.51;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.37 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.32 from 7.30 from 7.30;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 108.92 from 108.16 last week from 107.82 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang seems to be strong
b. Datacentres
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.60% from 4.63% last week from 4.53% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.29% from 4.33% from 4.32%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.95 from 95.67 from 95.38;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.96 from 78.73 from 78.58;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1029 from 997 from 990; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 12, 2025 8:55 am

TOL @ Jan 12, 2025

Earnings.jpg

US 4Q Earnings

The US 4Q Earnings season kicks off next week, with several financial institutions scheduled to release results.

The following are some comments from Investor Place:-

1. FactSet currently anticipates that the S&P 500 will achieve average earnings growth of 11.9% in the fourth quarter. That represents the fastest earnings growth in three years.

2. FactSet expects average earnings growth of 11.9%, 11.6%, 15.2% and 16.6% in the next four quarters respectively.

3. Calendar year 2025 earnings are forecast to soar 14.8% year-over-year, up from current estimates for 9.5% in 2024.

It looks like expectations are quite high for a good 4Q US Earnings Season. Therefore, the chances of an accident happening is also higher.

In addition, Trump's inauguration is coming up on Jan 20th. Hence, I need to remind myself to be not so adventurous over the next few weeks.

My exposure to Equities is currently on the higher side, at about 51%. This is because I added some HK counters as the HK market was sold down this week. (I'm expecting the National Team to support the China market between Jan 20th (Trump's Inauguration) and Jan 29th (CNY) ).

My feelings have not changed from last week:-

1. I think that US stocks are overbought especially the Magnificent 7 but some "experts" are calling for another 25% rise in the S&P 500 in 2025

2. I think that HK & China is oversold but some "experts" are saying that "cheap can become cheaper" especially with a Trump administration

3. I think that Bitcoin is overbought but some "experts" are calling for it to reach US$200,000 in 2025

4. I think that Malaysian counters are overbought but some "experts" are calling for another 15% rise in the KLCI for 2025

In view of the above, I need to constantly remind myself to be a bit more cautious in my trading activities:-
1. Bet Less Frequently
2. Bet Bigger Positions
3. Be more patient and wait first for the "no brainer" Set-Up
4. Make sure that the fundamentals are there to provide the tail-wind
5. Cut losses quickly
6. Have a time limit for any trade
7. Let the good trades run

I'm still not expecting a major US correction yet but my gut instinct is telling me to be careful with the US market.

If there's a major dip in the US markets, HK & China will not be spared either and I have a huge HK & China exposure.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (51% from 45% last week from 48% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 71% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 18% (9 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 11% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Mixed; (As of Jan 11 @ 07.16 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$77 from US$74 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2715 from US$2655 from US$2636;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$31 from US$30 from US$30;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.30 from US$4.07 from US$4.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$73 from US$75 from US$70 from US$74;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$94,745 from US$97,945 last week from US$95,071 two weeks ago @ 07.25 AM on Jan 11, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "27 Fear" from "32 Fear" last week from "34 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5827 from 5942 last week from 5971 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19069 from 19760 from 20090;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Added to 3188 (CSI 300 China ETF)
e. Added to Tencent
f. Added to Meituan
g. Bought Sunny Optical
h. Bought CR Beverage
f. Sold SMIC

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3169 from 3211 from 3400;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1602 from 1629 from 1628:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought MPI

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 10 @ 4.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 158 from 157 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.29 from 3.29 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.62 from 0.62 from 0.62;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.03 from 1.03 from 1.04;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7847 from 7.7758 from 7.7620;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.50 from 4.50 from 4.48;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.33 from 7.32 from 7.30;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 109.17 from 108.92 last week from 108.16 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.76% from 4.60% last week from 4.63% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.38% from 4.29% from 4.33%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.34 from 95.95 from 95.67;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.53 from 78.96 from 78.73;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 969 from 1029 from 997; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 19, 2025 9:33 am

TOL @ Jan 19, 2025[/b]

Trump.jpg

Trump 2.0

Trump would be inaugurated on Monday, January 20th and many "experts" have been predicting what the next few years would be like under Trump.

As my portfolio is skewed heavily towards HK & China, I would focus on these two markets in this week's blog.

Over the past two weeks, I have been adding heavily to my HK & China counters for the following reasons:-

1. I felt that the two markets were heavily oversold.

2. I also dont think that Trump would be able to implement a 60% tariff on China. Anyway, the "experts" are saying that a 25% tariff is the maximum.

3. I think that there could be a Trade Agreement between the US and China. If true, that would be very good for China & HK stocks.

There has already been some behind the scene discussions between Trump's people and China, over the past few weeks. Trump has also invited Xi to attend his inauguration. Yesterday, both Trump and Xi were also on the phone.

China has not brought out the big bazooka yet (assuming that they do have a big bazooka). Instead, they have chosen to play a "long game" with Trump.

Weakening their Currency would be an option. Increasing their Debt Levels would definitely be another option etc.

I'm sure that they have already deliberated on things and have prepared for the various scenarios under Trump.

I believed that there could be a rally in the China & HK shares after Trump's inauguration on Monday and before Chinese New Year. Although I'm quite bullish on the China and HK counters over the medium term, I need to also remind myself that they could also easily drop 15% to 20% if there's a crash in the Magnificent 7.

BTW, my allocation to Equities increased again this week. This is because there was selldown of Malaysian Equities and I took the opportunity to replenish my Malaysian exposure.

After the selldown, I think that some non-datacentres stocks are good buys especially if EPF and other local funds have a sizable stake in them.

For next week, everyone would be waiting for the "Executive Orders" from Trump. If the markets does rally, I would be using the opportunity to reduce my exposure to Equities from my current 56% versus my intented exposure of 40% for this type of market.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (56% from 51% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 56% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 20% (11 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 24% (16 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Mixed; (As of Jan 11 @ 07.16 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$77 from US$77 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2749 from US$2715 from US$2655;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$30;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.37 from US$4.30 from US$4.07;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$74 from US$73 from US$75;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$104,184 from US$94,745 last week from US$97,945 two weeks ago @ 07.51 AM on Jan 18, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "38 Fear" from "27 Fear" last week from "32 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5827 from 5942 last week from 5971 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Bought Eli Lilly
j. Bought UVXY (Volatility ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19575 from 19069 from 19760;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Added to Sands China
e. Traded Zijin
f. Sold 1/2 3033 (China Tech ETF)
g. Sold 2/3 JD
h. Sold Sunny Optical
i. Sold CR Beverage

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3242 from 3169 from 3211;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1567 from 1602 from 1629:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Genting Malaysia
c. Bought Genting Berhad
d. Bought Sunway
e. Bought YTL
f. Bought YTL Power
g. Bought IJN
h. Added to DNEX
i. Traded Sunway Construction
j. Traded Gamuda
k. Traded Kossan

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 18 @ 8.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 156 from 158 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.29 from 3.29 from 3.29;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.62 from 0.62 from 0.62;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.03 from 1.03 from 1.03;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7865 from 7.7847 from 7.7758;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.50 from 4.50 from 4.50;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.37 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.33 from 7.33 from 7.32;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 109.41 from 109.17 last week from 108.92 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.63% from 4.76% last week from 4.60% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.29% from 4.38% from 4.29%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.44 from 95.34 from 95.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.46 from 78.53 from 78.96;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1023 from 969 from 1029; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Jan 26, 2025 7:59 am

TOL @ Jan 26, 2025

trump 2.png

Navigating Trump 2.0

The following were some very good questions from "Investor Place" on Trump 2.0:-
1. Will tariffs reignite inflation?
2. How will the Federal Reserve respond?
3. Can Trump get more tax cuts?
4. Can Trump lead the charge to beat the rest of the world in AI, electric vehicles, and crypto?
5. How will the world respond to the huge change in America’s global politics?
6. Can Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) really reduce the size of the federal government by $2 trillion? What will be the effects of that?
7. What fights are going to happen in Congress? Remember, Trump was impeached twice in his first term.
8. If Trump can get manufacturing going, can we really get 4% GDP growth?
9. If Trump gets a “peace dividend” by ending the conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, can we be at 5% GDP growth?
10. If Trump can make the government more efficient, can we be briefly at 6% GDP growth?
11. Over the past 10 election cycles, the third year hasn’t been the only one that counts. In fact, Year 1 has become the biggest winner. Will Year 1 become a winner again?

While we ponder the questions above, "Investor Place" thinks that the following will be the roadmap for the next few months:-
1. The stage feels set for growth hopes to rise and inflation fears to ease over the next few weeks. As they do, stocks should push higher.
2. The dynamic will change at some point, likely in late February or early March. Growth hopes will fade. Inflation fears will rise. At that point, stocks will stumble.
3. But we believe that sometime after that, encouraging data will return, inflation fears will ebb, and we’ll climb once again.
4. That will be our dance all year long on Wall Street. We’ll take two steps forward, rallying on pro-growth hopes. Then, we’ll take one step back, dropping on reinflation fears.

Personally, I quite agree with the above outlook and my trading strategy remains as follows:-
1. US - Trading Market. Oscillating between "Inflation Noise" versus "Growth Noise".
2. HK - Trading Market with a slow upward bias, Oscillating between "Trump Noise" versus "National Team Noise"
3. Malaysia - Trading Market; Oscillating between "Foreign Outflow Noise" versus "Domestic Growth Noise"

My exposure to Equities is a bit on the higher side this week at 56% versus my preference of 40%. This is because I have added to my Malaysian exposure because I think that the Datacentres selldown were a bit over-done.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat; (56% from 56% last week from 51% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 53% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 20% (11 Counters); Trading Market; ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 27% (15 Counters); Trading Market; Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Mixed; (As of Jan 25 @ 1.40 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75 from US$77 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024; Trump to replenish SPR?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
h. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2770 from US$2749 last week from US$2715;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
c. How will Trump affect Gold price? Higher?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.32 from US$4.37 from US$4.30;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price? Higher?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$72 from US$74 from US$73;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price? Higher?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$104,650 from US$104,184 last week from US$94,745 two weeks ago @ 1.40 PM on Jan 25, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "49 Neutral" from "38 Fear" last week from "27 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6101 from 5827 last week from 5942 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20066 from 19575 from 19069;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Added to Sands China
e. Added to Meituan
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded JD
h. Traded New Oriental Education

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3253 from 3242 from 3169;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1574 from 1567 from 1602:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Added to PUC
c. Bought Malayan Cement
d. Traded YTL
e. Traded YTL Power
f. Traded IJN
g. Traded Gamuda
h. Sold Sunway

Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jan 25 @ 1.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 156 from 156 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.26 from 3.29 from 3.29;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.63 from 0.62 from 0.62;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.05 from 1.03 from 1.03;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7875 from 7.7865 from 7.7847;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.39 from 4.50 from 4.50;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.35 from 1.37 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.24 from 7.33 from 7.33;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 107.47 from 109.41 last week from 109.17 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.62% from 4.63% last week from 4.76% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.26% from 4.29% from 4.38%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.81 % from 96.44 from 95.34;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.75 from 79.46 from 78.53;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 893 from 1023 from 969; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Feb 02, 2025 7:38 pm

TOL @ Feb 02, 2025

Moving Parts.jpeg

Various Moving Parts:-

I was away for a short trip and the following are my initial thoughts on the various issues:-

1. 25% Canadian & Mexican Tariff - Noise It will probably not turn into any Major Risk. BTW, how do you measure less Fentanyl deaths or less Illegal Imigration?

2. 10% Chinese Tariff - Posturing; I still think that there would be a Trade Agreement in a few months time. In the meantime, I will continue to trade the HK & China counters.

3. No Rates Reduction - Expected; The longer they wait, the bigger they may have to cut later.

4. DeepSeek - Unverifiable; No one has been able to verify the US$6m figure yet. Do you know why you are selling the Chips, Uranium and Energy counters?

5. US Chips Curb - Over-Reaction - Why are you selling companies with minimal exposure to Datacentres?

I normally would take a trading break before CNY, However, for this year, there were so many trading opportunities in the HK, Malaysian and US markets:-

1. US - The US market seems to have matured. Only Semi-conductiors, Mag7 and Energy were sold down. Other sectors were not affected much . I took the opportunity to buy some NVDA, CCJ and AVGO.

2. HK - As the Hang Seng has rallied about 1400 points over the two weeks before CNY, I have taken the opportunity to sell some of my HK holdings especially some of the Big China Tech.

3. Malaysia - I have taken the opportunity to add to my positions in companies with minimal exposure to Datacentres but were sold down heavily eg. Gamuda, IJM, Sunway, YTL etc. I also dont think that there would be much Margin Calls for the time being as the Retail Investors are no longer a force to be reckoned with in Malaysia.

For next week, I'm expecting the following:-

1. HK: Weak. So it may be time to replenish my inventory before any action (talk) by the National Team

2. Malaysia: Rebound from Oversold Conditions especially for counters with minimal exposure to Datacentres but has visible future earnings

3. US: I must force myself to sit on NVDA, CCJ and AVGO, till the 50% retracement. I dont see a crash yet but the US market is probably in it's 7th or 8th innings especially for the Mag 7.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (54% from 56% last week from 56% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (12 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 34% (16 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Feb 02, 25 @ 5.40 PM PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$73 from US$75 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024; Trump to replenish SPR?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
h. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2835 from US$2770 last week from US$2749 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
c. How will Trump affect Gold price? Higher?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$32 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.28 from US$4.32 from US$4.30;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price? Higher?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$71 from US$72 from US$74;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price? Higher?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$99,747 from US$104,650 last week from US$104,184 two weeks ago @ 5.44 PM on Feb 02, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "46 Neutral" from "49 Neutral" last week from "38 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 6041 from 6101 last week from 5827 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Bought NVDA (Nvidia)
j. Bought AVGO (Broadcom)
k. Bought CCJ (Cameco)
l. Sold LLY (Eli Lilly)
m. Sold UVXY (Volatilty ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20225 from 20066 from 19575;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
e. Sold 1/2 Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 Tencent
g. Sold JD
h. Sold New Oriental Education

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3251 from 3253 from 3242;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1557 from 1574 from 1567:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Added to DNEX
c. Added to YTL
d. Added to YTL Power
e. Added to Sunway

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 02 @ 6.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 155 from 156 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.28 from 3.26 from 3.29;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.62 from 0.63 from 0.62;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.04 from 1.04 from 1.05;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7920 from 7.7875 from 7.7865;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.45 from 4.39 from 4.50;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.37;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.29 from 7.24 from 7.33;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 108.50 from 107.47 last week from 109.41 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.54% from 4.62% last week from 4.63% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.21% from 4.26% from 4.29%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.76 from 96.81 last week from 96.44;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.72 from 79.75 from 79.46;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 715 from 893 from 1023; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Feb 09, 2025 9:06 am

TOL @ Feb 09, 2025

storm.jpg

Preparing For The Storm?

The markets has been doing fairly well and I have taken the opportunity to reduce some of my exposure to Equities, from about 56% two weeks ago, to about 44% now.

The following are my comments on the various markets:-

1. US:
a. About 1/4 of the S&P 500 companies have already released their results. So far, 80% have exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates.
b. The S&P 500 has posted 12.7% average earnings growth so far, up from forecasts of 11.8% at the end of the quarter.
c. The poor employment data on Friday shows that the US economy is not doing that well despite the strong stock markets
d. For the time being, I will probably continue to buy on any sharp dip for the 50% retracement rebound

2. HK:-
a. The HK market has risen about 2300 points in the past 3 weeks
b. There was no real reason for this rise
c. Instead, the 10% tariff on China goods is real and has been implemented
d. I was overweight HK Equities a few weeks ago and have taken the opportunity to sell some of them into this rally
e. If the HK market continues to rise without any real reason, I will have to force myself to continue selling down my positions
f. I do not see a quick turnaround in the Chinese economy. I think that it will take at least two years for things to turnaround.
g. In the meantime, you have Trump coming out with Executive Orders every other day
h. I also do not see any big bazooka being deployed. China is playing a long game.
i. The most optimistic scenario is for the US and China to sign a Trade Agreement, a scenario that I'm currently expecting.
j. The worst scenario would be an all-out Trade War which I'm not expecting at this point in time.

3. Malaysia:-
a. As expected, the "Data-Centre plays" have rebounded
b. As I was a bit overweight on those "data-centres play", I've sold some of them into this rally eg. Gamuda, YTL, YTLP, Sunway and Suncon.
c. Other counters like IJM and Malayan Cement, still have not really moved
d. As for the Glove companies, I cant see any real reason for the movement so I didnt chase after them this round

Going forward, I have to remind myself to be a bit less adventurous. Unless it's a "Conviction Buy", I should avoid making any more new purchases.

At the same time, I should pare down some of my borderline positions especially those with iffy stories.

I think that the storm may be on the horizon and it may be time to prepare for the storm. Not sure when the storm will be coming. My guess is that it could be arriving within a month or two. At the same time, with Trump around, it's a very good "Trading Market".

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (44% from 54% last week from 56% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 43% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 29% (13 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 28% (14 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Feb 08, 25 @ 07.50 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$71 from US$73 last week from US$75 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024; Trump to replenish SPR?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
h. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2888 from US$2835 last week from US$2770 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3000;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
c. How will Trump affect Gold price? Higher?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$32 from US$32 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.59 from US$4.28 from US$4.32;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price? Higher?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$70 from US$71 from US$72;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price? Higher?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$96,490 from US$99,747 last week from S$104,650 two weeks ago @ 07.54 AM on Feb 08, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF) to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "39 Fear" from "46 Neutral" last week from "49 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 6026 from 6041 last week from 6101 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Bought UVXY (Volatilty ETF)
j. Bought Alphabet (GOOGL)
k. Sold AVGO (Broadcom)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21134 from 20225 from 20066;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 21,300; 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Traded Baidu
e. Traded JD
f. Traded Nongfu Spring
g. Traded Galaxy
h. Traded Meituan
i. Sold Alibaba
j. Sold Tencent
k. Sold China Life
l. Sold 3033 (HS Tech ETF)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3304 from 3251 from 3253;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1591 from 1557 from 1574:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold 1/4 DNEX
c. Sold 1/2 YTL
d. Sold 1/2 YTL Power
e. Sold Sunway
f. Sold Gamuda

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 08 @ 8.36 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 151 from 155 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.28 from 3.28 from 3.26;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.63 from 0.62 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.03 from 1.04 from 1.04;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7904 from 7.7920 from 7.7875;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.44 from 4.45 from 4.39;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.29 from 7.29 from 7.24 from 7.33;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 108.10 from 108.50 last week from 107.40 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.49% from 4.54% last week from 4.62% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.29% from 4.21% from 4.26%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.24 from 96.76 last week from 96.81 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.35 from 79.72 from 79.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 793 from 715 from 893; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Feb 16, 2025 9:54 am

TOL @ Feb 16, 2025

complacency.jpg

Complacent Markets?

The markets have been grinding higher for the past few weeks and complacency may have set into the markets.

There were so many surprises by the Trump Administration yet the markets seemed to be able to shrug them off easily.

Anyway, I'm now finally raising some Cash and waiting for any potential storm.

When markets get euphoric, it will always go out to look for an excuse to revert to the mean. Maybe the excuse this time, may come from some sort of announcement by the Trump Administration eg. Sanction, Tariff, War, New Regulation etc.

My exposure to Equities has now dropped to about 40% from about 60% two weeks ago. I will reduce it further if the opportunity presents itself.

For the HK market, I think that it is now a bit euphoric. I have taken the opportunity to sell into the rally. HK has now risen about 3700 points in about a month, with no real reason. "Deep Seek" still cannot be verifiable till date. Let's see whether the HK market will fall back to earth during the coming HK Earnings Seasons.

BTW, HK (where the China Techs are listed) rose a lot where-else the Shanghai market didnt move that much. So the rise in HK is strictly due to the China Tech / Deep Seek story. It's has nothing to do with any overall improvement in China's economy (which may take another 2 to 3 years).

The players in HK seemed to have forgotten the lessons from Oct 2024. At that time, the HK players were chasing the HK market higher because they were anticipating the arrival of an army of "China Retail Investors" and the "Western FOMO crowd". Both did not appear and the market subsequently collapsed over the next few months. Are we seeing history repeating itself again?

Anyway, the rise in HK now, is giving a chance to those that were caught last October 2024, to get out.

It's always funny to see people chasing things when it has risen by 25% but now when it was down 25%.

Maybe "Momentum Investing" is the right strategy this time and "Buying High & Selling Higher" may proved profitable for the HK market this time.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (37% from 44% last week from 54% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 38% (11 Counters); Trading Market; Overbought?
c. US: 31% (11 Counters); Oversold Counters. Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 31% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Feb 14, 25 @ 2.25 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$71 from US$71 last week from US$73 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024; Trump to replenish SPR?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2960 from US$2888 last week from US$2835 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3000;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$34 from US$32 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.81 from US$4.59 from US$4.28;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$68 from US$70 from US$71;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$96,776 from US$96490 last week from US$99,747 two weeks ago @ 2.27 PM on Feb 14, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF) to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "44 Fear" from "39 Fear" last week from "46 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 6115 from 6026 last week from 6041 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Sold Nvidia (NVDA)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22620 from 21134 from 20225;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Traded Baidu
e. Traded JD
f. Traded Nongfu Spring
h. Traded Meituan
i. Sold 1/2 AIA
j. Sold China Overseas Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3347 from 3304 from 3251;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1592 from 1591 from 1557:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Added to DNEX
c. Added to IJM
e. Sold Suncon
f. Sold Genting Berhad
g. Sold Genting Malaysia

Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Feb 14 @ 2.15 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 153 from 151 last week from 155 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.30 from 3.28 from 3.28;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.63 from 0.63 from 0.62;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.05 from 1.03 from 1.04;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7855 from 7.7904 from 7.7920;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.44 from 4.44 from 4.45;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.34 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.29 from 7.29 from 7.29;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 107.10 from 108.10 last week from 108.50 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.48% from 4.49% last week from 4.54% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.26% from 4.29% from 4.21%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.56 from 96.24 last week from 96.76 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.67 from 79.35 from 79.72;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 776 from 793 from 715; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Feb 23, 2025 8:46 am

TOL @ Feb 23, 2025

Big Picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

With so many changes from the Trump Administration, it's time to look at the "Big Picture" again

1. Interest Rates:- The Feds will probably try to hold off reducing rates as long as possible in view of the inflationary tariffs. However, things are slowing down in the US and there's about $28 trillion of the National Debt to be refinanced over the next four years.

2. USD:- May continue to be strong as interest rates may stay elevated for a while longer. There is no alternative to the USD yet.

3. Commodities:- If the USD remains strong, the price of Commodities will probably be weak unless there's a major supply problem. Demand for Commodities from China will probably continue to be weak.

4. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is now adding to the world's Liquidity while Japan may be withdrawing some Liquidity.

5. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession for the time being assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here.

6. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Mag Seven" are overbought. If they suddenly collapse, they could bring the markets down with them
b. China: The "China Big Tech" are overbought. HK has risen 4600 points in 5 weeks. The "National Team" will probably support the China market if it collapses.

c. Malaysia: Gloves are collapsing. Construction, Technology and Datacentre Plays are weak.

7. US Earnings:-
a. About 80% of companies in the S&P 500, have reported.
b. More than 75% have beaten Wall Street’s profit estimates
c. The blended earnings growth rate is about 17%
d. Next quarter, earnings are projected to rise about 8% then another 9% in Q2.
e. For third quarter, they are expected to rise almost 15% and then about 13% in the fourth
f. Earnings will probably be able to provide some tailwind for elevated stock prices for the next few months

8. Trading Tactic:- Need to trade bigger and less often. Need to reduce the number of counters in my portfolio to about 15 from the current 33. Will probably continue to buy on any steep dip for the 50% retracement.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (40% from 37% last week from 44% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 42% (11 Counters); Trading Market; Overbought?
c. US: 29% (11 Counters); Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 29% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Feb 21, 25 @ 2.52 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$72 from US$71 last week from US$71 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024; Trump to replenish SPR?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2945 from US$2960 last week from US$2888 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3000;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$33 from US$34 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.57 from US$4.81 from US$4.59;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$65 from US$68 from US$70;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$98,402 from US$96,776 last week from US$96490 two weeks ago @ 2.55 PM on Feb 21, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF) to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "35 Fear" from "44 Fear" last week from "39 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 6013 from 6115 last week from 6026 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23478 from 22620 from 21134;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Added to Baidu
e. Added to Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3379 from 3347 from 3304;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1591 from 1592 from 1591:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Added to DNEX

Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Feb 21 @ 2.40 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 158 from 153 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.31 from 3.30 from 3.28;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.64 from 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.05 from 1.05 from 1.03;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7731 from 7.7855 from 7.7904;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
d. When to convert some HKD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.63 from 4.44 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some MYR to USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
d. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.25 from 7.29 from 7.29;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 106.52 from 107.10 last week from 108.10 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.49% from 4.48% last week from 4.49% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.26% from 4.26% from 4.29%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.77 from 96.56 last week from 96.24 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.80 from 79.67 from 79.35;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 904 from 776 from 793; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

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