Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 07, 2011:-


Armageddon ?



The market was behaving as if Armageddon was just around the corner.

And it was beyond logic as there was no single event, that really triggered the sharp sell-off.

Although the comments by Trichet got things going, those were not new news.

Anyway, the machinese were busy at work, so trying to logically explain the sharp sell-off, is probably a waste of time.

The question now is whether you want to be buying on the dip, sell on the technical rebound or do nothing.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$87 from US$96 last week from US$100 the previous week. How low can it go with Summer Driving and Hurrican Season ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1663 from US$1626 last week from US$1603 the previous week. Will people be selling their gold to pay for their losses in Equities and other Commodities ? And what was that comment about gold by WB ?

3. Silver - Weaker. US$38.32 from US$39.95 last week from US$40.12 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49; So why is Silver and Gold going in opposite direction ?

4. Other Commodities - Weaker. Is China no longer using Commodities now ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2626 from 2702 last week from 2771 the previous week. Support at 2600 then 2590 and 2350? Will there be another hike in RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 20946 from 22440 last week from 22455 the previous week. Support at 20,500 ? No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2995 from 3189 last week from 3183 the previous week. Sold China Animal Healthcare.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1199 from 1301 last week from 1345 the previous week. Support at 1168 then 1120 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 9300 from 9833 last week from 10132 the previous week.

10. JPY - Stronger. 78.425 from 76.72 last week from 78.41 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.29 to 94.98. How much more bullets do they still have ?

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Weaker. EUR @ 1.429 from 1.4403 last week from 1.4362 the previous week.

13. USD - Stronger. 74.52 from 73.75 last week from 74.25 the previous week.

14. Properties - When will China be announcing their Housing Windfall tax ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.8074 from 7.7937 last week from 7.7911 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.808.

16. Sentiment - Weaker. End of the world coming ? And will the AAA downgrade add fuel to the fire ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - When not whether there's a Double Dip ?

18. Risk Management- "Return OF Capital" not 'Return ON Capital"

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ? Would you look at the NZD or the KWN ?

20. Market Direction - Weaker. Do you dare to short after it has collapsed ?

The "experts" are now talking about a three week rout.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[kennynah]

W : how's the weather where you are now?

[winston]

Hi K,

It's very nice, warm and sunny where I am today . And it would be perfect if I have better internet access

Looks like you have missed the riots in northern London

Take care,
Winston

[Chinaman]

Hi K,

It's very nice, warm and sunny where I am today . And it would be perfect if I have better internet access :x

Looks like you have missed the riots in northern London
Take care,
Winston

look like boss w, retreat at some remote corner of china.....now i m in Chaing mai writing this post at hotel lobby.

TOL:
I believe there no big event to trigger a big crash....market will be weak to a while.
I will sell some....wait ....dip futher ...bottom fish some.

End of the day...i think better for me to sell out 60% of my stock holdings and park my retirement fund in a safe haven...still finding this so call safe ?

[kennynah]

bro C : enjoy yourself in Chiang Mai.... be safe

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 14, 2011:-


Jumpy Lemmings?



It looks like the lemmings were really jumpy this week. They were seen to be jumping off cliffs, buildings, bridges etc.

It does not matter that these lemmings were buying high and sellling low. They just want to get out at whatever price that they can get.

But are those really lemmings that are jumping off the cliffs, buildings and bridges ?

Or are those 3D images of lemmings created by the HFT machines ?



I can handle the behaviour of lemmings but how do you react to jumpy HFT machines ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$85 from US$87 last week from US$96 the previous week. Waiting to buy CNOOC or Petrochina.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1746 from US$1663 last week from US$1626 the previous week.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$39.07 from S$38.32 last week from US$39.95 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - Weaker. How low can they go ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2593 from 2626 last week from 2702 the previous week. Support at 2425 then 2350? Will they be delaying the next hike in RRR or Interest Rate to 2012 in view of the market turmoil ? And do you really believed that their inflation rate is only 6.5% ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 19620 from 20946 last week from 22440 the previous week. Support at 19,325 ? No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2851 from 2995 last week from 3189 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1179 from 1199 last week from 1301 the previous week. Support at 1168 then 1120 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8964 from 9300 last week from 9833 the previous week.

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.785 from 78.425 last week from 76.72 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.29 to 94.98. Did they waste their bullets ? Having lost a generation, the Japanese still thinks that they can control market forces.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Flat. EUR @ 1.425 from 1.429 last week from 1.4403 the previous week.

13. USD - Flat. 74.57 from 74.52 last week from 73.75 the previous week. Shouldnt the USD be going up when the world collapse ?

14. Properties - Transactions are dropping.

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7929 from 7.8074 last week from 7.7937 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.808. ADT on the HKSE was also very heavy, at HK$91b compared to an average of around HK$65b.

16. Sentiment - Weaker. The Lemmings were having a field day, diving off the cliff.

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Why would you think that there would be robust growth ?

18. Risk Management- Did you buy high and sell low ( again ) ?

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ?

20. Market Direction - Weaker.

Will it be a "V", "U", "W", Triple Bottom or a Bottomless Pit ?

The gut says that this is the time to buy.

However, the head says that this rout will continue for a while more.

Who do yout trust ? Your gut or head ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 21, 2011:-




Now What ?

After six 400+ days on the Dow, will things settle down a bit from here ?

The "triple bottom" seems to be forming but the headwinds are still out there: European Contagion, Global Economic Slowdown, Lower Margins etc.

Sentiment is very fragile and it does take much to trigger a few more 400+ days.

And how many more 400+ days can you still handle, before you throw in the towel ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$83 from US$85 last week from US$87 the previous week. Waiting to buy CNOOC or Petrochina.

2. Gold - Record. US$1853 from US$1746 last week from US$1663 the previous week. Vested

3. Silver - Stronger. US$42.88 from US$39.07 last week from S$38.32 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49; Missed the boat

4. Other Commodities - Sugar and Cotton are supposedly going to take off. Why ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2535 from 2593 last week from 2626 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? How long will they be suspending the hike in RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 19400 from 19620 last week from 20946 the previous week. Support at 19,250 then 17,250 ? No trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2734 from 2851 last week from 2995 the previous week. No trade

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1124 from 1179 last week from 1199 the previous week. Support at 1120 then 1090 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8719 from 8964 last week from 9300 the previous week. When will the high yen really hit them ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.54 from 76.785 last week from 78.425 the previous week. The 52 week range is 76.29 to 94.98.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Stronger. EUR @ 1.4402 from 1.425 last week from 1.429 the previous week. vested

13. USD - Weaker. 73.99 from 74.57 last week from 74.52 the previous week. Why is the USD not going up when the financial system is collapsing ?

14. Properties - So how much have you lost already ?

15. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7955 from 7.7929 last week from 7.8074 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113. ADT on the HKSE was weaker at HK$73b this week from HK$91b last week.

16. Sentiment - Weaker. How many more 400+ days can you handle ?

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Why are you expecting strong growth in the US, Europe and Japan ?

18. Risk Management- If you cant stand the heat, then you should not be in the kitchen in the first place

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the USD, CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ?

20. Market Direction - Triple Bottom

A Triple Bottom seems to be forming. However, the market is still very weak and there's no catalyst yet for a strong rebound.

Logically, one should start staggering in the buying from here:
1. for a medium term play
2. only big companies that can withstand a recession and
3. at a high margin of safety.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[Chinaman]

TOL,
First day sold a few stocks, but later catches a few falling knives, my spare bullet already used up.

so now conserve my energy...patient and monitor closely.

When is the real 'U' turn???
If you know it, now the time to make good money in mid-term, if 1 has the chance to look back 1 year later.

when every1 fearful, 1 become greedy....keep this in mind.

[kennynah]

bro C,

good advice

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 28, 2011:-


Trading Markets ?



As expected, Jackson Hole was a non-event. So where do we go from here ?

Are things that great, that everyone is lining up to buy Equities ?

Are things that bad, that you should be selling at fire-sale prices ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$85 from US$83 last week from US$85 the previous week. Watching CNOOC. Hurricane season starting.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1828 from US$1853 last week from US$1746 the previous week. Record US$1916. Vested

3. Silver - Still strong. US$41.3 from US$42.88 last week from US$39.07 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$33.49;

4. Other Commodities - Did not Collapse. Watching Noble.

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2612 from 2535 last week from 2593 the previous week. Support at 2350 then 2300 ? How long will they be suspending the hike in RRR or Interest Rate ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 19583 from 19400 last week from 19620 the previous week. Support at 19,250 then 17,250 ? Bought Yangzhou Coal.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2748 from 2734 last week from 2851 the previous week. Bought Wilmar

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1177 from 1124 last week from 1179 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1180 then 1205 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8798 from 8719 last week from 8964 the previous week.

10. JPY - Still strong. 76.63 from 76.54 last week from 76.785 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.96 to 85.93.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com/

12. Europe - Stronger. EUR @ 1.4498 from 1.4402 last week from 1.425 the previous week. No more European Contagion ?

13. USD - Still Weak. 73.73 from 73.99 last week from 74.57 the previous week. Why is the USD not going up when the financial system is collapsing ?

14. Properties - lower transactions volume means what ?

15. Liquidity - Stronger towards end of week. HKD @ 7.7961 from 7.7955 last week from 7.7929 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

16. Sentiment - Weaker. I think some people ae waiting to sell on any technical rebound.

17. Economies of Developed Markets - Things dont change in a week.

18. Risk Management- Are you being too complacent ?

19. Currency - What can I buy besides the CHF, SGD, CNY, EUR, CAD and AUD ?

20. Hedge Funds - Redemption by Sept 15th, for Oct 1st Deadline

21. Market Direction - Weak

I think the markets will be weak and consolidating, for a while longer.

There's no catalyst on the horizon on why it should rebound strongly.

At the same time, the various headwinds have not disappeared eg. European Contagion, Weak G3 Economies, High Raw Material Costs, China's High Inflation, Weak Consumer Sentiment, High Market Volatility etc.

However, there could be some fresh capital from a new month and that may provide some excitement for a few days.

It may be safe to buy some puts on the HSI whenever it rallies more than expected.

At the same time, it does not hurt to pick up some good quality counter, that's trading at a fair valuation, for a medium term play.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.