Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 13, 2024

Earnings.jpg

US Earnings Season

It's the start of the US earnings season so it's a good time to review some of the discussions on the 3Q Earnings from Factset and Investor Place.

1. Earnings Growth: For Q3 2024, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 4.2%. If 4.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 5th straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.

2. Earnings Revisions: On June 30, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q3 2024 was 7.8%. Nine sectors are expected to report lower earnings today (compared to June 30) due to downward revisions to EPS estimates.

3. Earnings Guidance: For Q3 2024, 60 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 50 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance.

4. Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 21.4. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.5) and above the 10-year average (18.0).

5. Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2024 (with 21 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 16 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 14 S&P 500 companies has reported a positive revenue surprise.

6. Sandbagging; The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate declined by 3.9% (to $60.72 from $63.20) from June 30 to September 30.

7. Actual vs Expected: The actual earnings growth rate has exceeded the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of the quarter in 37 of the past 40 quarters for the S&P 500.

Intuitively, if any of the US counter gets oversold this earnings season for not meeting earnings expectation, I may look at it as long as it's a brand-name company with good fundamentals and trading at a reasonable valuation.

As for HK, I'm wary about Trump becoming the next President. Therefore, I will be holding my horses on the HK market until after the US election. However, if the HK counters get very oversold before the US election, I may look at some of the Blue Chips there, for a medium term play.

For Malaysia, I have been looking at the Glove and Infrastructure companies. However, I've been taking my time to ease into them. At the same time, I may also take small profits on them, along the way. I think that this is a medium term play so there's no need to rush into them unless they become quite "oversold". The Budget will be on next Friday, October 18 and I think that it would probably be a non-event.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (26% from 25% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 35% (9 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (8 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 33% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed; (As of Oct 12, 2024 @ 07.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$75 from US$74 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Flat; US$2674 from US$2673 from US$2681;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$32 from US$32 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.49 from US$4.57 from US$4.59;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$84 from US$82 from US$81;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$62535 from US$62061 last week from US$65908 two weeks ago @ 7.20 AM on Oct 12, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "74 Greed" from "74 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5815 from 5751 last week from 5738 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21252 from 22737 from 20632;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 19,800 (end 2024),
e. Bought China Life
f. Bought CICC
g. Bought 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3218 from 3337 from 3088;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1634 from 1630 from 1660:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold Hartalega
c. Sold Kossan
d. Sold Sunway Construction


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 12 @ 11.40 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 149 from 149 last week from 143 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.29 from 3.24 from 3.21;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.68 from 0.68 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7656 from 7.7685 from 7.7768;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.29 from 4.22 from 4.12;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.31 from 1.30 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.07 from 7.02 from 7.01;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.91 from 102.49 last week from 100.62 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.07% from 3.97% last week from 3.74% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.95% from 3.92% from 3.60%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.79 from 96.95 from 97.54;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.57 from 79.60 from 80.14;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1790 from 1941 from 2091; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 20, 2024

Buy, Sell or Hold.jpg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

The markets have been behaving erratically so it's time to review Next Steps.

1. US Market:-
a. Another two weeks to the US election. The betting websites are giving a higher probability to a Trump Win.
b. If Trump wins, the US market could continue to grind higher
c. If Kamala wins, it may not be so good for the US market
d. However, the Presidential Cycle Theory states that the markets will normally be weak in the first half of the Presidential Cycle
e. Valuation is not cheap unless EPS can grow strongly
f. CNN Greed Fear Index at "Extreme Greed 75", Overbought
g. I'm watching UVXY and SQQQ to hedge my US positions.

2. HK & China Market:-
a. The Stimulus and it's chatter, will be providing the tailwind for the markets
b. The Foreign Funds will probably have to increase their weighting to China over the next few months (another tailwind)
c. As time goes on, the army of new inexperienced investors, will no longer be providing much tailwind to the market. Some of them are already losing money.
d. Placements would be a Headwind for the markets as the debt laden companies would be trying to raise as much money as possible
e. Profit taking by Hedge Funds and Short Term Investors would be another headwind
f. I may continue to add Blue Chips but only at reasonable valuations ie. PEG
g. Growth will probably be weak over the next 18 months so there's no need to chase any counters.
h. I may sell into any euphoria and then try to buy them back later
i. If Trump wins, it would be very bad for HK & China stocks eg. 60% sanctions, delisting of ADRs etc.
j. I may have to hedge my HK positions with 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng 2x) and 7552 (Inverse Hang Seng Tech 2x) just before Nov 5.
k. NPC Meeting at end Oct / early Nov may provide another tailwind for the HK market

3. Malaysian Market:-
a. I didnt see any opportunity from the budget
b. I dont see the Malaysian market going anywhere from here
c. I may nibble on some Glove companies and Infrastructure plays
d. This is probably a "Trading Market" so it's possible to make 3% in a short time if one is not too greedy
d. I may convert some USD, HKD, SGD into MYR, at the 50% retracement, probably in early 2025.

I need to also think about where US Interest Rates is heading. The consensus view is that it may drop about 1.5% from here over the next year. At the same time, if Inflation is stickier than expected, then they may not be able to drop interest rates that much or that fast.

The following is from Deutsche Bank:-
Five reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward
1. Initial interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global basis.
2. Stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.
3. Odds of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience that could keep inflation elevated.
4. Sept's consumer price index report surprised investors last week.
5. Money supply growth is still accelerating.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (30% from 26% last week from 25% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 41% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 29% (8 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 30% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed; (As of Oct 19, 2024 @ 07.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$69 from US$75 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2736 from US$2674 from US$2673;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$34 from US$32 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.39 from US$4.49 from US$4.57;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$83 from US$84 from US$82;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$68363 from US$62535 last week from US$62061 two weeks ago @ 7.25 AM on Oct 19, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "75 Extreme Greed" from "74 Greed" last week from "74 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5865 from 5815 from 5751 last week from 5738 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20804 from 21252 from 22737;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 19900; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22700; 23200; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
e. Bought AIA
f. Bought ASMPT
g. Bought Galaxy

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3261 from 3218 from 3337;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1646 from 1634 from 1630:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 19 @ 7.50 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 150 from 149 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.29 from 3.29 from 3.24;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.68 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7719 from 7.7656 from 7.7685;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.30 from 4.29 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.31 from 1.31 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.10 from 7.07 from 7.02;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.46 from 102.91 last week from 102.49 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.08% from 4.07% last week from 3.97% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 3.95% from 3.95% from 3.92%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.09 from 96.79 from 96.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.80 from 79.57 from 79.60;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1594 from 1790 from 1941; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 27, 2024

November.jpeg

New Money From The New Month

It will be a new month next week so we should have a spike in the markets either late next week or early the following week.

Thereafter, we would be touching the US Election and people may be a bit cautious.

As I write this blog, Israel is attacking Iran. I do not see this episode escalating into WW3 yet. At most, it will morph into a regional Middle East conflict only. Even if a few nuclear bombs are used (which is highly unlikely), the world will still continue to spin.

I'm more concern about how the US election will affect the markets than this skirmish between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

Anyway, I have been reminding myself to limit my exposure to Equities before the US Election but I went shopping again this week as there were some "good deals".

I should try to unload some positions next week or to buy some hedges eg. SQQQ, UVXY, 7500 and 7552.

For this week, we have the following comments from the "experts":-

1. Stanley Drukenmiller
a. Betting against declining interest rates

2. David Rosenberg
a. Warned that stocks are in a bubble and at risk of a major decline
b. Advised investors to pay attention to pivot towards the following sectors:-
i. Healthcare and consumer staples
ii. Utilities
iii. Aerospace, Defense
ix. Big Tech
v. Safe bets - gold, government bonds, REITs (Industrial, Healthcare)
c. Asked Investors to "buy insurance"


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (35% from 30% last week from 26% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 41% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 30% (10 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed; (As of Oct 19, 2024 @ 07.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$71 from US$69 last week from US$75 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2761 from US$2736 from US$2674;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but not the share price of gold miners
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$34 from US$34 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.37 from US$4.39 from US$4.49;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$82 from US$83 from US$84;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$67182 from US$68363 last week from US$62535 two weeks ago @ 6.30 AM on Oct 26, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "59 Greed" from "75 Extreme Greed" last week from "74 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5808 from 5865 last week from 5815 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
h. Bought Lockheed Martin
i. Bought Capri

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20590 from 20804 from 21252;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 19900; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22700; 23200; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Alibaba
e. Bought CR Beverage
f. Added to Baidu
g. Traded New Oriental Education
h. Sold 1/3 Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3300 from 3261 from 3218;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1618 from 1646 from 1634:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought MYEG
c. Bought YTL
d. Bought YTL Power
e. Bought Kossan


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 26 @ 3.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 152 from 150 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.28 from 3.29 from 3.29;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7705 from 7.7719 from 7.7656;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.34 from 4.30 from 4.29;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.32 from 1.31 from 1.31;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.12 from 7.10 from 7.07;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.32 from 103.46 last week from 102.91 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.23% from 4.08% last week from 4.07% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.11% from 3.95% from 3.95%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.36 from 97.09 from 96.79;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.28 from 79.80 from 79.57;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1417 from 1594 from 1790; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 02, 2024

US Election.jpg

US Election - Buy, Sell or Hold?

The US Election will be here next week. That means that I have only Monday and Tuesday to buy some hedges as I still have a 37% exposure to Equities.

The betting websites are still giving a higher probability for a Trump win. If Trump does win, then it's very likely that the HK & China Equities will be pummeled. Trump has been talking about a 60% sanctions, ADR Delisting etc.

That's probably why they have the NPC Meeting from Nov 4-8, to address any fall-out from a Trump win. So it's likely to be a "V" shape scenario for HK Equities if Trump wins. Thereafter, you will probably have four years of difficult time for your HK & China Equities.

If Kamala wins, then the US markets may have a sharp dip. Her proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, potential larger deficit, continuation of war in Ukraine and Middle East etc. is making some investors jittery. If there is a sharp dip in the US market on a Kamala win, I will probably be going shopping.

The FOMC will also be having their meeting on Nov 6 & 7. If there's a stock market crash after the announcement of the US Presidential Election, the Feds will also have the option to reduce interest rates by a bigger margin at that time.

Therefore, I would probably be doing the following next week:-
1. Buy some hedges on Monday or Tuesday eg. 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x), 7552 (Hang Seng Tech Inverse 2x), 7568 (Nasdaq Inverse 2x), SQQQ (Nasdaq Inverse 3x), UVXY (Volatility) etc.
2. Buy on any sharp dip next week
3. Watch the NPC Meeting on Nov 4-8
4. Watch the FOMC meeting on Nov 6-7


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (37% from 35% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 43% (14 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 27% (10 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 30% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Nov 02, 2024 @ 07.02 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$69 from US$71 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2749 from US$2761 from US$2736;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$33 from US$34 from US$34;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.37 from US$4.37 from US$4.39;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$79 from US$82 from US$83;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$69615 from US$67182 last week from US$68363 two weeks ago @ 7.01 PM on Nov 02, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "49 Neutral" from "59 Greed" last week from "75 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5729 from 5808 last week from 5865 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
h. Bought Estee Lauder
i. Sold Visa

2. HK Equities - Lower. 20506 from 20590 from 20804;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 19900; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22700; 23200; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought SMIC
e. Sold CR Beverage

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3272 from 3300 from 3261;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1614 from 1618 from 1646:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Sunway Construction
c. Bought Wasco
d. Traded YTL


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 02 @ 6.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 153 from 152 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.30 from 3.28 from 3.29;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7798 from 7.7705 from 7.7719;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.38 from 4.34 from 4.30;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.33 from 1.32 from 1.31;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.12 from 7.12 from 7.10;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 104.33 from 104.32 last week from 103.46 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.39% from 4.23% last week from 4.08% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.21% from 4.11% from 3.95%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.74 from 96.36 from 97.09;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.75 from 79.28 from 79.80;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1388 from 1417 from 1594; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 10, 2024

MAGA.jpeg

Trump 2.0 - Buy Sell or Hold?

As predicted by the betting websites, Trump won the election.

So where do we go from here?

A. US Markets (from Investor Place):-
1: Stocks will go higher
2: Oil should stay flat but inflation will be a ‘wild card’
3: Interest rates are also a ‘wild card’
4: Big upside in stocks will hinge on inflation, interest rates and valuation
5: Large-Cap stocks will continue to outperform
6: Growth stocks will remain the winners
7: ‘New-School’ growth stocks should be the biggest winners
8: Clean-Tech stocks will crash but nuclear stocks could surge
9: Financial stocks should be outperformers
10: Real Estate stocks could struggle

B. HK & China Markets:-
1. It will probably be a tough trading market for the next four years
2. Any sharp dip can probably be bought and the 50% retracement should be sold into
3. To avoid companies with a huge US & European client base
4. To focus on the Domestic Consumption Red Chips
5. To reduce exposure to HK & China Equities to about 25% from recent 50%

C. Malaysia Market:-
1. Glove companies were moving on the Trump win
2. Electronic companies were also moving
3. Industrial Properties were also in play
4. Palm Oil companies could be quite profitable but the global fund managers may not be buying on ESG issues
5. The strong MYR will hurt the earnings of any export companies
6. The strong MYR will help the earnings of any company that borrow in USD
7. It will probably be a Trading Market over the next while

Intuitively, I think that the US market is overbought. If that's the case, there could be sharp dip in November. And if that happens, I do not think that HK & Malaysia, would be spared either. Therefore, I've been trying to raise as much Cash as possible.

I will probably hunker down until the end of November. Once we touched the beginning of December, I may then turn a bit more aggressive as there would be some "Window Dressing" activities, follow by the the Santa Rally and then the "January Effect".


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (34% from 37% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 39% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (12 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 29% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Nov 09, 2024 @ 07.15 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$70 from US$69 last week from US$71 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2692 from US$2749 from US$2761;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$31 from US$33 from US$34;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.31 from US$4.37 from US$4.37;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$77 from US$79 from US$82;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$76404 from US$69615 last week from US$67182 two weeks ago @ 7.42 AM on Nov 09, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "61 Greed" from "49 Neutral" last week from "59 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5996 from 5729 last week from 5808 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
h. Bought UVXY (Volatility ETF)
i. Bought MercadoLibre (MELI)
i. Sold 1/2 Krisp Kreme (DNUT)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20728 from 20506 from 20590;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 19900; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22700; 23200; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Sold SMIC
e. Sold JD
f. Sold Galaxy

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3452 from 3272 from 3300;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1614 from 1618 from 1646:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Hartalega
c. Traded YTL
d. Traded YTL Power
e. Traded Kossan
f. Traded Ekovest
g. Sold Sunway Construction
h. Sold Wasco


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 06 @ 3.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 153 from 153 last week from 152 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.32 from 3.30 from 3.28;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7726 from 7.7798 from 7.7705;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.39 from 4.38 from 4.34;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.32 from 1.33 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.16 from 7.12 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 104.53 from 104.33 last week from 104.32 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.31% from 4.39% last week from 4.23% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.25% from 4.21% from 4.11%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.07 from 95.74 from 96.36;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.80 from 78.75 from 79.28;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1427 from 1388 from 1417; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 10, 2024

storm.jpg

The Storm Is Coming?

The US markets have been weak for the past four days while HK has been dropping for the past 6 days. So where do we go from here?

1. US Markets:-
a. US Earnings Season is winding down so there's one less catalyst for the US market to go higher
b. Weekly Dressing will only start in about 2 to 3 weeks time
c. So there's a two to three weeks window, that an accident can happen especiually with so many moving parts
d. The Big Tech was weak on Friday trading
e. Powell is hinting that interest rates may not drop in December
f. The US market is probably overbought so I need to continuously remind myself to be careful when playing in that pond
g. Monitoring SQQQ to hedge some of my US positions

2. HK Market:-
a. The HK market has now dropped from about 23,100 to 19,400 now.
b. That's a 3700 points drop or 16% from the peak.
c. Before that, it went up from around 17,100 to 23,100, a 6000 points rise (35% rise).
d. It's probably a good time to start nibbling while watching what Trump will be doing in the next four years.
e. It will be a good "Trading Market" for the next four years
f. However, a huge drop in the US market will also affect HK

3. Malaysian Market:-
a. No strong catalyst
b. No conviction buys
c. The MYR is starting to weaken so it's not a bad time to start thinking about converting some USD and SGD into MYR

I'm starting to feel a bit uneasy about the markets and I should try to sell some of my positions. Last week, I did increase my positions in HK as I felt that it was oversold. If the HK market rebounds next week, I should lighten my positions there.

As for the US market, it may be an un-investable market for the time being, due to it's Valuation. If I'm unable to sell some of my positions, I should seriously try to hedge them next week.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (39% from 34% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 49% (15 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (11 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 25% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Nov 16, 2024 @ 11.30 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$67 from US$70 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2568 from US$2692 from US$2749;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$30 from US$31 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.06 from US$4.31 from US$4.37;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$79 from US$77 from US$79;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$89,878 from US$76,404 last week from US$69,615 two weeks ago @ 9.24 PM on Nov 15, 2024
a. Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "51 Neutral" from "61 Greed" last week from "49 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5871 from 5996 last week from 5729 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
h. Sold MercadoLibre (MELI)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19426 from 20728 from 20506;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Meituan
e. Bought JD
f. Bought China Life

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3331 from 3452 from 3272;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1592 from 1614 from 1618:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Mr DIY
c. Added to PUC
d. Sold Hartalega
e. Sold YTL Power
f. Sold Kossan


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 15 @ 9.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 155 from 153 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.32 from 3.30 from 3.28;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.06 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7845 from 7.7726 from 7.7798;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.47 from 4.39 from 4.38;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.34 from 1.32 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.22 from 7.16 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 106.41 from 104.53 last week from 104.33 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.44% from 4.31% last week from 4.39% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.31% from 4.25% from 4.21%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.31 from 97.07 from 95.74;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.24 from 79.80 from 78.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1692 from 1427 from 1388; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 24, 2024

Market Timing.png

Market Timing?

The US market was grinding higher this week while the HK market was pathetic (unless you were shorting it). Not easy to time the markets.

The following are my most recent thoughts on these two markets:-

1. US Market
a. US Earnings Season is now almost over so there's one less catalyst for the US market to go higher.
b. I'm a bit cautious about the US market but I ended up adding to my US positions.
c. I need to start selling down some of my US positions or to seriously start hedging my US exposure.
d. The next catalyst is a few weeks away ie. Window Dressing, Santa Rally & January Effect

2. HK market
a. Free-fall this week and I ended up adding to my HK positions
b. I should not be so adventurous as a US "steep drop" will certainly bring HK with it too.
c. I'm betting that HK is a bit oversold and will try to sell some positions next week

Finally, Investor Place had a very good article recently on "Market Timing" recently and the following are some of the main points:-
a. Short-term cautious, Medium-term bullish, Long-term mixed
b. Short-term (daily/weekly basis), the market needs to cool off. It is due for either a consolidation or pullback in November – before a rebound rally in December.
c. Medium-term (monthly/yearly basis), the combination of falling interest rates, pro-growth policies and strong earnings should propel stocks meaningfully higher in 2025 and maybe even into 2026/27.
d. Long-term (multi-year basis), this market boom will end in a bust
e. We are working on our second consecutive >20% return year for the S&P 500. We think we could get another one in 2025.
f. That would be three consecutive >20% return years for the market. That only has one precedent – the late 1990s. And that ended with the Dot Com Crash. Be aware of this risk.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 39% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 28% (13 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 20% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Nov 23, 2024 @ 07.50 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$71 from US$67 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2718 from US$2568 from US$2692;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$31 from US$30 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.08 from US$4.06 from US$4.31;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$79 from US$79 from US$77;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$98,929 from US$89,878 last week from US$76,404 two weeks ago @ 7.59 AM on Nov 23, 2024
a. Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "61 Greed" from "51 Neutral" last week from "61 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5969 from 5871 last week from 5996 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
h. Bought Eli Lilly (LLY)
i. Bought Alphabet (GOOGL)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 19230 from 19426 from 20728;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought China Resource Beverage
e. Added to Baidu
f. Traded China Life
e. Sold 1/2 JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3267 from 3331 from 3452;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1590 from 1592 from 1614:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Added to YTL
c. Sold Mr DIY
d. Sold PressMetal
e. Sold MYEG


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 23 @ 7.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 155 from 155 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.32 from 3.32 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.04 from 1.06 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7849 from 7.7845 from 7.7726;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.47 from 4.47 from 4.39;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.25 from 7.22 from 7.16;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 107.49 from 106.41 last week from 104.53 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.41% from 4.44% last week from 4.31% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.38% from 4.31% from 4.25%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.65 from 96.31 from 97.07;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.49 from 79.24 from 79.80;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1576 from 1692 from 1427; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 01, 2024

December.jpg

New Money From The New Month?

It's a new month again so new money should be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets early next week. Thereafter, it could be listless until Window Dressing appears.

If the markets can survive the next two weeks without any incident, then it's likely that it can survive till around Jan 20th, the Presidential Inauguration.

Anyway, I'm still cautiously bullish on the markets. My exposure to Equities is now around about 38% of Liquid Assets.

As you may know, I have been trying to lower my exposure to Equities whenever I can and will continue to sell whenever the opportunity arises.

If I'm not able to sell within the next two weeks, then the next opportunity to sell would probably be during "Year End Window Dressing Season" and the "Santa Rally".

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Dec 5th: OPEC+ Meeting; Probably Non-Event
2. Early Dec: Central Economic Work Conference
3. Dec 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting; Probably 25 bps rates reduction


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (38% from 41% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 46% (15 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 29% (12 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 25% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Nov 30, 2024 @ 08.08 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$68 from US$71 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2674 from US$2718 from US$2568;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$30;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.14 from US$4.08 from US$4.06;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$78 from US$79 from US$79;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$97,060 from US$98,929 last week from US$89,878 two weeks ago @ 8.42 AM on Nov 30, 2024
a. Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "66 Greed" from "61 Greed" last week from "51 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6032 from 5969 last week from 5871 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
h. Bought SBIT (Bitcoin Inverse 2x ETF)
i. Bought Eli Lilly (LLY)
j. Sold Capri (CPRI)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19424 from 19230 from 19426;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Added to Tencent
e. Traded JD
f. Traded Meituan
g. Traded Vitasoy
h. Sold 1/2 Baidu
i. Sold 1/2 ASMPT
j. Sold China Life

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3326 from 3267 from 3331;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1594 from 1590 from 1592:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought IOI Properties
c. Bought Tenaga
d. Traded IJM
e. Sold 2/3 YTL


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Nov 30 @ 8.35 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 150 from 155 last week from 155 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.32 from 3.32 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.06 from 1.04 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7815 from 7.7849 from 7.7845;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.45 from 4.47 from 4.47;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.34 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.25 from 7.25 from 7.22;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Lower; 105.78 from 107.49 last week from 106.41 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.17% from 4.41% last week from 4.44% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.16% from 4.38% from 4.31%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.36 from 96.65 from 96.31;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 80.04 from 79.49 from 79.24;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1419 from 1576 from 1692; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 08, 2024

window-dressing.jpg

Window Dressing?

We would be heading into "Window Dressing Season" soon. Therefore, the markets could be relatively strong until early January barring any unexpected event. There's also the traditional "Santa Rally" in play.

BTW, the following is something on the coming Santa Rally from Hypergrowth Investing:-
1. Bullish Seasonality Trends Suggest a Lasting Rally
2. Inflation Keeps Sliding Lower
3. A Dovish Fed Is Driving the Sleigh
4. Robust Consumer Spending on Deck

Before we get too excited about the "Window Dressing Season" & the "Santa Rally", the following is article from the Financial Times titled " The Mother Of All Bubbles":-
1. The US accounts for 70% of the global stock index, up from 30% in the 1980s.
2. America’s share of global stock markets is far greater than its 27 per cent share of the global economy.

If the US drops steeply, the rest of the world may not be spared eg. HK & China.

Scanning the horizon, one catalyst that can cost a dip is on Dec 18th , the FOMC meeting. If Powell says the wrong thing on that day, then that could be catalyst for a much awaited dip in the US.

As for HK & China, expectations are building up for something to be announced on Dec 11th at the Central Economic Work Conference. I think the markets will be disappointed again.

Finally, I remain cautiously bullish. My exposure to Equities remains at around 38% of Liquid Assets. I think that it's still a "Trading Market" so I will be selling into any strong rally and buying any sharp dips.


Risk Management Progress:-


1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat; (38% from 38% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (14 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 31% (12 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 21% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Tencent, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Dec 07, 2024 @ 07.28 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$67 from US$68 last week from US$71 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2655 from US$2674 from US$2718;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.20 from US$4.14 from US$4.08;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$78 from US$78 from US$79;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$98,298 from US$97,060 last week from US$98,929 two weeks ago @ 5.36 PM on Dec 6, 2024
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. Bought SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "53 Neutral" from "66 Greed" last week from "61 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6090 from 6032 last week from 5969 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19866 from 19424 from 19230;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Added to Meituan
e. Sold 1/2 Tencent
f. Sold CR Beverage

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3404 from 3326 from 3267;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1613 from 1594 from 1590:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold IOI Properties
c. Sold Tenaga


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Dec 6 @ 5.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 151 from 150 last week from 155 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.30 from 3.32 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.06 from 1.06 from 1.04;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7798 from 7.7815 from 7.7849;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.42 from 4.45 from 4.47;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.26 from 7.25 from 7.25;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 105.88 from 105.78 last week from 107.49 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.15% from 4.17% last week from 4.41% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.10% from 4.16% from 4.38%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.94 from 97.36 from 96.65;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.77 from 80.04 from 79.49;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1160 from 1419 from 1576; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 14, 2024

Santa Rally.jpg

Window Dressing & Santa Rally?

We are now touching "Window Dressing Season" and the markets are normally strong at this time. The Fund Managers would normally buy more of the stocks that have done well and may also sell the losing positions so as to display only positions that have gained in value. The price at the closing on Dec 31st will be published in their Performance Reports.

As for the Santa Claus rally, it is a calendar effect that normally involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January.,

There is no generally accepted explanation for the phenomenon but the rally is sometimes attributed to the following:
1. Increased investor purchases in anticipation of the January effect
2. Lighter volume due to holiday vacations makes it easier to move the market higher
3. A slow down in tax-loss harvesting that depresses prices at the beginning of December
4. Short sellers / Pessimistic investors tend to take vacations around the holidays

As for myself, I'm still cautiously bullish. I will take any small profits and will probably buy if there's a big dip.

For next week, we have the following:-
1. Dec 18th; FOMC Meeting. Expecting a 25 bps rates reduction
2. Dec 20th; Quadruple Witching; Volatility?


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (34% from 38% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 52% (15 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 31% (11 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. BABA, Baidu, JD, Meituan, ASMPT etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Dec 14, 2024 @ 07.51 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$71 from US$67 last week from US$68 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024 .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
g. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
h. How will Trump affect Oil price? Lower?
i. Watching XLE
https://investides.net/forum/viewtopic. ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2676 from US$2655 from US$2674;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2800;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Waiting to sell GDX; Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners
c. How will Trump affect Gold price?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. How will Trump affect Silver price?
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Flat. US44.20 from US$4.20 from US$4.14;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. How will Trump affect Copper price?
d. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$77 from US$78 from US$78;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. How will trump affect Uranium price?
d. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$101,489 from US$98,298 last week from US$97,060 two weeks ago @ 7.58 AM on Dec 14, 2024
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "50 Neutral" from "53 Neutral" last week from "66 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 6051 from 6090 last week from 6032 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Sold GOOGL

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19971 from 19866 from 19424;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought China Life
e. Bought China Overseas Land
f. Traded Meituan
g. Traded JD
h. Sold 1/2 Baidu
i. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3392 from 3404 from 3326;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1609 from 1613 from 1594:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded DNEX
c. Sold Sunway


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 14 @ 9.20 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 154 from 151 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.30 from 3.30 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.05 from 1.06 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7756 from 7.7798 from 7.7815;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.45 from 4.42 from 4.45;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
c. When to convert some USD into MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.28 from 7.26 from 7.25;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 106.95 from 105.88 last week from 105.78 lwo weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
b. CK Asset prices Blue Coast II in Wong Chuk Hang at 20% below development cost
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.40% from 4.15% last week from 4.17% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.24% from 4.10% from 4.16%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.43 from 96.94 from 97.36;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.41 from 79.77 from 80.0;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1055 from 1160 from 1419; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

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