Winston's Investment Ideas 01 (Nov 08 - Apr 10)

[winston]

TOL:-

Window Dressing activities would start surfacing in two to three weeks time.

Not expecting them to push the market a lot this time as they are already doing well for this year. I think they may want to save some bullets for next year. Also cash levels are quite low now. ( Please see the "Cash and Money Market" thread in the "Other Investment Instruments & Ideas section ).

However, if there's a steep correction, then they may want to support the market until year end..

[winston]

TOL as of December 6, 2009:-


Taking a Trading Break

I'm getting a bit too close to the forest that maybe I'm not seeing the trees. A break would help me have a detached view of the markets and to have a fresh look at things..


1) Gold - Sir John Templeton mentioned that a bull market normally dies on euphoria. So is gold euphoric now ? I will not be shorting gold but I would not be putting new money in it either.

2) Oil - Am expecting it to drop further as inventories are a bit too high

3) Other Commodities - Expecting Commodities to correct. How deep and how long ?

4) Shanghai Equities - Getting close to the resistance of 3400

5) HK Equities - Positions in Zhongwang and AMVIG, Sold BBMG.

6) HK IPO - Stagged on Sands. Applied for Kaisa & China Longyuan Power

7) Spore Equities - No Conviction Buy ideas

8) US Equities - Expecting it to be range-bound. Am still sitting on my S&P Inverse ETF

9) Japan Equities - Did not expect Japan to rebound so fast ( 10% in a week )

10) Properties (HK,Spore & China) - Would you be buying at this price ?


11) Swine Flu - Inrease in cases but not alarming yet

12) Emerging Markets - How big is the out-flow ?

13) Iran - Is a sanction in the works ?

14) Hedge Funds - Next deadline for redemption is Feb 15, 2010 for Apr 1, 2010

15) Mutual Funds - How big is the out-flow ? Year End Window Dressing activities.

16) US Interest Rates - Expecting it to rise sooner than expected

17) USD - Would you be continuing with your short position at this price ?

18) Signature - I liked Rick Warren's comment

19) Title - Today's title is to remind myself to take a trading break, to be patient and to wait for things to unfold

20) 80 / 20 Principle - Am reminding myself to apply the 80 / 20 Principle..


I think things are being priced for perfection now. Whenever there's an unexpected event eg. Dubai, it will trigger a correction. There are a lot of nervous short-term traders out there and they are standing next to the emergency exit. They dare not sell their current positions but at the same time, they do know that the markets are extended..

It's time to check the assumptions. It's time to go back to basics. It's time to think about "Return of Capital" rather than "Return on Capital".

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above at your own risk. Please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.

[winston]

Reminder for myself:-

1) Interest rates would be going up for Emerging Market debts, in view of the situation in Dubai and now Greece. Please see the "Risks Out There" thread for other potential problems.

2) On CNBC now. The first wave was Individual Debts. The second wave will be Corporate Debts.

3) Need to relook the Currency Risk of my portfolio. I've too much exposure in the Sin$

4) USD is starting to go up. Commodities esp. Gold, is starting to come down. Equities and Properties should be next. Need to be patient. Wait for things to play out first. However, it will not be the end of the world.

[kennynah]

However, it will not be the end of the world.

even if golbal equities markets all tank to zero capitalization value, it is still not the end of the world...

[kennynah]

usd/sgd at 1.391 today....

2009 high at 1.5135 back in Apr and low of 1.3778 in Nov....

[lithium]

However, it will not be the end of the world.

even if golbal equities markets all tank to zero capitalization value, it is still not the end of the world...

That will be paradise for you

[kennynah]

i canr be that selfish.... a sudden 10% drop is sufficient to make me happy... if world equities hit gero... there's nothing to be happy about...becos we will all be in the greatest depression of all times... thrown back to stone age

[winston]

Country Risk

I've always been addressing Currency Risk in my portfolio but not thought about the Country Risk.

So when I buy a Chinese listed company in HK, I've been keeping track of my USD exposure but not think about the Country Risk.

Similarly, when I buy a S-Chip in Spore or a Singapore company who does a lot of business in China, I worry only about my SIN$ exposure and not the Country Risk.

Suddenly, China is now a big portion of my exposure through Singapore & HK, and there's a need for me to manage that risk now. I'm not as bullish on China anymore.

[Poles]

Country Risk

. I'm not as bullish on China anymore.

Hi Winston,

Can you share what are the concluding details that leads to your above thoughts.

[winston]

Hi Poland,

When something has run up a lot and becomes a big portion of my portfolio, there's a need for me to review things and to manage that risk.

For Emerging Markets, I worry about eg. Corporate Governance, Transparency,
Non-Performing Loans, Accuracy of Data & Statistics, Arrogance, Ignorance, Greed etc.

Take care,
Winston