Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

by **winston** » Sun Aug 04, 2024 7:59 am

TOL @ Aug 04, 2024

Big Picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

As the BoJ has exited "negative interest rates" and Powell has hinted on a Sept rates cut, it's time to check on the "Big Picture" again.

1. Interest Rates:- The Feds will probably be reducing interest rates in Sept for the following reasons:-
a. Things are rapidly slowing down in the US
b. The US government has a huge debt to service and it costs a lot to service the debt if interest rates are at an elevated level
c. The Democrats do not want a recession before the Nov. Election
Watching TLT and EMB.

2. Inflation:- It should slowly decrease as "Consumer Demand" is decreasing. Hopefully, the following issues do not spiral out of control:-
a. Ukraine War
b. Israel vs Hamas-Hezbollah-Iran-Houthi Conflict

3. USD:- It should slowly weaken from here.
Watching the Yen thru FCY and YCL.

4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in "Demand". Till date, the demand from China has been quite sluggish. Watching Copper.

5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is now adding to the world's Liquidity while Japan is withdrawing some Liquidity.

6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here.

7. Ukraine War:- With the Israel Conflict and the US Debt Ceiling discussion, the US may force Ukraine to accept a truce especially if Trump becomes President again.

8. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" is starting to weaken. If they suddenly collapses at the same time then they would be bringing the indexes down with them.
b. China: The "National Team" will continue to support
c. HK: "Trading Market". A Trump victory will be very bad for the HK & China markets.
d. Japan: Some money may flow from Japan to HK & China.

9. US Earnings:- Forward guidance has been weak and some "experts" are saying that it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets.

10. Trading Tactic:- Despite reminding myself to be a bit careful, I have continued to buy on steep drops. I must watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till November 2024.

BTW, Buffett has been selling for the past 7 quarters and has raised his Cash Level from US$189b in 1Q 2024 to US$277b now. If the "smartest investor on earth" is raising cash, why am I buying?

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (46% from 45% last week from 43% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 58% (20 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (7 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Tencent etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Aug 3, 2024 @ 7.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$76 last week from US$79 last week;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2486 from US$2386 from US$2403;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$28 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.13 from US$4.11 from US$4.24;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$85 from US$82 from US$85;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$61351 from US$67,876 last week from US$66,746 two weeks ago @ 7.00 AM on Aug 3, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "27 Fear" from "45 Neutral" last week from "49 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5347 from 5459 last week from 5505 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought NVDA
h. Bought AMZN

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16945 from 17021 from 17418;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Sold 1/2 ASM Pacific
f. Sold East Buy
g. Sold Zijin
h. Traded Sunny Optical
i. Traded Hang Lung Properties

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2905 from 2891 from 2982;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 35910 from 37667 from 40064;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1611 from 1613 from 1637:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Sunway Construction

Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Aug 02 @ 11.20 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 149 from 154 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.40 from 3.47 from 3.49;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8149 from 7.8067 from 7.8109;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.55 from 4.66 from 4.69;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.23 from 7.25 from 7.27;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.34 from 104.33 last week from 104.37 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.79% from 4.19% from 4.24%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.87% from 4.39% from 4.52%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.09 from 95.54 from 95.21;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.06 from 78.29 from 78.00;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1668 from 1834 from 1902; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Aug 11, 2024 8:51 am

TOL @ Aug 11, 2024

Buy, Sell or Hold.jpg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

As the Japanese market has dropped 12% on Monday and recovered that 12% over the next few days, it's time to take a step back to reflect on things.

Being a trader, I have always like to fade any volatile movement. My natural instinct is to buy any Blue Chips that has dropped a lot in a short time (on no news) and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement.

The above is on the condition that I understand why it dropped in the first place and I'm convinced that there would be a rebound.

If it does not rebound, I must have the confidence to hold it until there's a rebound. Hence, the FA Analysis is performed before any buying.

Anyway, I bought heavily into the steep drop on Monday and used up most of my Cash. I then sold over the next few days and I have almost completely sold what I bought on Monday.

Going forward, I think that the markets are now probably "broken". Most of the young investors and fund managers (who have never seen a crash before) have just experienced their first crash. They are now like a deer staring into the headlights. It will not take much to put some fear into them from here.

In times like this, you would be glad that you have covered all your basics:-
1. Asset Allocation
2. Position Sizing
3. Diversification
4. Trailing Stop Loss (?)
etc.

Anyway, I dont think that markets will roll over on the first drop, They normally fall on the second or third tops. Therefore, I've been trying to raise as much Cash as possible on the rebound and have not been taking any unnecessary risk.

The following are my current trading thoughts on the various markets:-

1. US - Expensive Market. Bought NVDA, AMZN and AAPL, for a quick spin. Waiting to sell on the next top. Reduced my position size to only 1/4 my normal size in case I'm wrong.

2. HK - Trading Market. Did not dropped a lot on Monday. Probably reached Support but it would probably take two years to recover. Should not be too adventurous. A Trump Win will derail everything in HK.

3. Malaysia - Speculative Market. Traded only the Blue Chips eg. YTL, YTL Power, Sunway, Sunway Construction, Hume Cement, Malayan Cement and Eco World Warrants. I think the Local Funds are still in control of the market. On Monday, the Local Retails and Foreign Funds were selling, while the Local Funds were buying.

Going forward, I need to remind myself to be more careful. I should try to raise as much Cash as possible. My exposure to Equities has slowly crept up to 46% with 65% of them in HK Equities.

If another "Black Monday" does occur, I wont be able to run quickly as I have about 34 counters now. I need to reduce the number of my counters in HK from the current 20 counters, to about 10.

Maybe I should also start hedging my portfolio with some UVXY and SQQQ at the next top in the US Market. I have mentioned a few weeks ago that this could be the "calm before the storm". The question is how fast can I run before the storm arrives.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat; (46% from 46% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (20 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (7 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Tencent etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Aug 3, 2024 @ 7.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$76 last week from US$79 last week;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2486 from US$2386 from US$2403;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$28 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.13 from US$4.11 from US$4.24;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$82 from US$85 from US$82;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$60,719 from US$61351 last week from US$67,876 two weeks ago @ 7.43 AM on Aug 10, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "24 Extreme Fear" from "27 Fear" last week from "45 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5347 from 5459 last week from 5505 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought AAPL
h. Sold 1/2 AMZN
i. Sold Krispy Kreme (DNUT)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16945 from 17021 from 17418;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Added to ASM Pacific
f. Traded CPIC

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2862 from 2905 from 2891;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 35025 from 35910 from 37667;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1611 from 1613 from 1637:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold Sunway Construction
c. Traded Sunway
d. Traded YTL
e. Traded YTL Power
f. Traded Hume Cement
g. Traded Malayan Cement
h. Traded Eco World Warrants

Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Aug 09 @ 2.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 149 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.36 from 3.40 from 3.47;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7958 from 7.8149 from 7.8067;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.45 from 4.55 from 4.66;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.32 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.17 from 7.23 from 7.25;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.14 from 104.34 last week from 104.33 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.94% from 3.79% from 4.19%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.06% from 3.87% from 4.39%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.07 from 95.09 from 95.54;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.55 from 77.06 from 78.29;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1683 from 1668 from 1834; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Aug 18, 2024 8:50 am

TOL @ Aug 18, 2024

exit.png

Do You Know Where's The Emergency Exit?

The markets have recovered all of it's dip from two weeks ago (and probably more).

Therefore, it's timely to review your various "Risk Management" issues including:-
1. Asset Allocation
2. Diversification
3. Country Risk
4. Currency Risk
5. Industry Risk
6. Position Sizing
7. Trailing Stop Loss
etc.

If you were caught in the down-draught weeks ago then it's very likely that you are breaking even now. Hence, you now have to decide on whether you want to sell or continuing holding. (Most people will probably not be initiating new positions unless there's a very convincing story).

As for myself, I have decided to reduce my exposure to Equities as I'm quite uncomfortable with things. Therefore, I have been selling into the rally and have managed to reduce my exposure to Equities from about 46% two weeks ago, to about 31% now.

The following are my current thoughts on the various markets:-

1. US: Earnings Season will be over it would probably be quiet until the next major catalyst (3Q Window Dressing on Sept 30). I think that the US market is now a "Trading Market" and I will now only trade on the extremes. I may also buy some UVXY and SQQQ to hedge my existing positions.

2. HK Market: It's now earnings season and if any of my counters gapped up, I will probably sell them, on the hope of buying them back cheaper eg. JD this week BTW, I have only 2.5 months left, to sell 3/4 of my HK holdings before the US Presidential Election and HK now is about 70% of my portfolio.

3. Malaysian Market: I have not been able to find any good ideas. If it drops steeply like two weeks ago, I may buy the Blue Chips for a quick trade.

For next week, most people will be trying to dissect what Powell has to say at Jackson Hole on Aug 23rd. I think that it's a waste of time but who am I to argue with the best and brightest mind in the business.

My focus now is:-
1. To see where is the "Emergency Exit"
2. To see how fast I can run there in an "emergency" and
3. What hedging strategy can i have on very short notice in case I cant run there in time

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (31% from 46% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 71% (22 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 13% (5 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Tencent etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Aug 3, 2024 @ 7.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$77 from US$74 last week from US$76 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2546 from US$2486 from US$2386;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$29 from US$29 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.15 from US$4.13 from US$4.11;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$81 from US$82 from US$85;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$58,494 from US$60,719 last week from US$61351 two weeks ago @ 3.03 PM on Aug 16, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "35 Fear" from "24 Extreme Fear" last week from "27 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5554 from 5347 last week from 5459 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Grab
h. Sold 1/2 Nike
i. Sold AAPL
j. Sold AMZN
k. Traded Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
l. Traded Chipotle (CMG)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17430 from 16945 from 17021;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Bought Lenovo
f. Bought Tencent Music
g. Added to Tencent
h. Traded Galaxy
i. Traded China Unicom
j. Traded Samsonite
k. Sold 1/2 ASM Pacific
l. Sold 1/2 JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2879 from 2862 from 2905;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38063 from 35025 from 35910;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. Topix: PE 13
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1624 from 1611 from 1613:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded SP Setia
c. Traded Sime Darby property

Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Aug 16 @ 2.55 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 149 from 147 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.36 from 3.36 from 3.40;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7945 from 7.7958 from 7.8149;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.44 from 4.45 from 4.55;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.32 from 1.32 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.17 from 7.17 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 102.93 from 103.14 last week from 104.34 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.88% from 3.94% last week from 3.79% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.05% from 4.06% from 3.87%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.86 from 96.07 from 95.09;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.07 from 77.55 from 77.06;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1692 from 1683 from 1668; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Aug 25, 2024 8:24 am

TOL @ Aug 25, 2024

Risk Mgt.jpg

Risk Management

For the past three weeks, since the Aug 6th "Yen Carry-Trade" crash, I have been relooking at the risks in my portfolio.

Although I do have certain rules in place for my portfolio, it's good to check it once in a while, to make sure that I have been really following those rules:-

1. Asset Allocation: I currently have a 46% exposure to Equities and I should try to reduce it to around 30% for this type of environment. My exposure to Equities have crept up over the past three weeks as I was buying on the dip.

2. Position Sizing: I have already reduced the size of my new trades by half. However, I still have some legacy positions which are quite big for this type of environment and I should try to reduce those positions whenever I can.

3. Country Risk: I have too high an exposure to HK & China (about 2/3 of my Equities position). I should reduce it before November, just in case Trump returns. I have also a high exposure to Malaysian assets.

4. Currency Risk: About 2/3 of my portfolio is in Non-USD. I need to increase the USD component of my portfolio to about 50% (even-though US interest rates will be dropping soon).

5. Industry Risk: I have too high an exposure to China Techs eg. Alibaba, Tencent, JD, Baidu, Meituan, Netease, Lenovo, ASMPT, 3033 (Tech ETF) etc. I should try to reduce that exposure before November.

6. Diversification: I still have too many counters in my portfolio ie. 37:-
a. HK: 21
b. US: 8
c. Malaysia: 8
I should try to reduce it to about 15 only ie. 5 per country. Having too many counters will hinder me from reacting quickly to fast breaking bad news.

I need to remind myself to get the above done ASAP. I've been telling myself that this is the "calm before the storm". When the storm does come, I know that I wont have enough time to react. A good example was on Aug 6th recently.

I also need to put in some hedging asap eg. UVXY, SQQQ, 7552 (Inverse Hang Seng Tech 2x); 7568 (Inverse QQQ 2x); 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng) etc.

For next week, it would probably be the "same old, same old";-
1. US: Nothing exciting. US Earnings Season is almost over. To buy some hedges? To only trade on extremes.
2. HK: Earnings Season; To sell on any upward gaps on the earnings. To only trade on extremes.
3. Malaysia: Earnings Season; To only trade on extremes.

Now that the markets have recovered over the past three weeks, I have grown complacent again. I'm behaving as if everything is okay again and am looking at everything around me with rose colored glasses.

Hence, I'm forcing myself to look at my portfolio everyday, to see where I can reduce some risks before the storm. The time to act is now.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (46% from 31% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 63% (21 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (8 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Lenovo, ASMPT etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Aug 24, 2024 @ 7.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75 from US$77 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2549 from US$2546 from US$2486;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$30 from US$29 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.21 from US$4.15 from US$4.13;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$80 from US$81 from US$82;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$61,112 from US$58,494 last week from US$60,719 two weeks ago @ 9.03 PM on Aug 23, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "53 Neutral" from "35 Fear" last week from "24 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5635 from 5554 last week from 5347 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
h. Bought NTES (Netease)
i Traded Grab
j. Traded UVXY (VIX ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17612 from 17430 from 16945;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
d. Bought China Resource Beer
e. Added to Baidu
f. Sold Ping An
g. Sold CKH
h. Traded Netease
i. Traded Yancoal Australia
j. Traded JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2854 from 2879 from 2862;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38364 from 38063 from 35025;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. Topix: PE 13
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1624 from 1611 from 1613:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Hume Cement
b. Traded YTL
c. Traded YTL Power

Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Aug 23 @ 1.55 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 146 from 149 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.34 from 3.36 from 3.36;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.11 from 1.10 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7975 from 7.7945 from 7.7958;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.38 from 4.44 from 4.45;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.31 from 1.32 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.14 from 7.17 from 7.17;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.33 from 102.93 last week from 103.14 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.80% from 3.88% last week from 3.94% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.91% from 4.05% from 4.06%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.35 from 95.86 from 96.07;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 78.98 from 78.07 from 77.55;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1768 from 1692 from 1683; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Sep 01, 2024 7:08 am

TOL @ Sep 01, 2024

September.jpeg

New Money From The New Month

it's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets. Therefore, we should have a spike in the markets next week unless the Fund Managers have already spent their money in advance on Friday.

Thereafter, I'm not expecting the markets to go anywhere until Window Dressing activities in about 2 weeks time.

For this week, a few bears were out growling:-

1. Mark Mobius:-
a. Decline in M2 money supply since it peaked in 2022, represents the largest drawdown in the total money supply in nearly a century.

2. Steve Hanke:-
a. We will enter a recession either late this year or early next year
b. The inflation numbers will keep coming down
c. Steady rise in the unemployment rate
d. Ongoing slowdown in retail sales, housing market and manufacturing

3. Jon Wolfenbarger:-
a. A recession could send stocks plunging 70% when valuations are elevated
b. Various warning signs eg. inverted yield, Sahm Rule, jobs market cooling eg. average weekly hours, manufacturing employment etc.

I'm continuing to reduce my exposure to HK whenever there's a rally. I need to prepare for the possibility of a Trump Presidency in November.

As for the US market, I do not expect it to be strong until Window Dressing season.

For Malaysia, I'm not able to read the situation properly so I should not invest too heavily in this market. The price movement is "strange" even for the Blue Chips.

Finally, I need to constantly remind myself to be not too complacent. When the storm arrives, I will not have the time to run.

The time to prepare is now and I still have a big exposure equities at 34% even-though I have reduced it significantly from about 46% last week. I need to bring it down to about 15% asap.

A faster way to protect myself would probably to buy hedges but it's not fun sitting on any Inverse ETF or Put Warrant, while the market continues to rise "irrationally".

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (34% from 46% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 56% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (8 Counters); Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 23% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Tencent etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Aug 31, 2024 @ 7.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$74 from US$75 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Libya: Supply Disruption; 1m bpd
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2536 from US$2549 from US$2546;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$29 from US$30 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.22 from US$4.21 from US$4.15;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$80 from US$80 from US$81;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$59124 from US$61,112 last week from US$58,494 two weeks ago @ 8.03 AM on Aug 31, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "63 Greed" from "53 Neutral" last week from "35 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5648 from 5635 last week from 5554 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Traded Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
h. Traded UVXY (VIX ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 17989 from 17612 from 17430;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Added to Alibaba
f. Sold 1/2 Baidu
g. Sold 1/2 AIA
h. Sold Netease
i. Sold China Resource Beer
j. Sold Meituan
k. Sold Mengniu
l. Sold Tencent
m. Traded JD
n. Traded Nongfu Spring

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2842 from 2854 from 2879;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38648 from 38364 from 38063;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. Topix: PE 13
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1679 from 1624 from 1611:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought IJM

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 31 @ 9.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 146 from 146 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.31 from 3.34 from 3.36;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.68 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.11 from 1.11 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7977 from 7.7975 from 7.7945;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.32 from 4.38 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.31 from 1.31 from 1.32;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.09 from 7.14 from 7.17;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.73 from 101.33 last week from 102.93 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.91% from 3.80% last week from 3.88% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.92% from 3.91% from 4.05%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.82 from 96.35 from 95.86;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.34 from 78.98 from 78.07;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1814 from 1768 from 1692; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Sep 08, 2024 12:53 pm

TOL @ Sep 01, 2024

Fall.jpeg

Fall?

It's Autumn now and in some places, Autumn is known as "Fall". Is it a coincidence that markets started falling when "Fall" arrives?

Anyway, the markets were weak this week and quite a few people are wondering whether this is the beginning of a more severe "fall".

As for myself, I have been a bit careful since the "Yen Carry Trade" dip. However, there are so many counters that are trading at "attractive prices" that I could not resist buying some this week.

Altogether, I entered 14 positions this week. I seemed to have forgotten that "cheap can become cheaper".

I still have a healthy Cash position and going forward, I will probably be not so aggressive as this week as I have some good positions already.

On the horizon, there's the following:-
1. Sept 17 & 18: FOMC; Will Powell reduce rates by 50 bps?
2. Sept 20: Quadruple Witching
3. Sept 30: 3Q Window Dressing

This week, Doug Kass has a very good reminder:-
1. 42% US households' allocations to equities, is at the highest level in 72 years
2. Are we using too-high S&P EPS numbers in justifying current valuations?

Logically, one would be a bit careful from now till the US November election. It's a traditional weak period of the year and right now, there are also many moving parts eg. Ukraine War, Israel Conflict, US Slowdown, China Slowdown etc.

So why did I go on a buying spree this week? Was it FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)? Was it the Contrarian Instinct? Was it because I was sitting on a lot of Cash? Was it Complacency? Was it Greed? Was it Arrogance?

I should do some soul searching. Whatever it is, we will know in a very short time whether it was the right move or not. The beauty of this business, is that the results of your actions will be quickly shown to you.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (45% from 34% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 55% (21 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (9 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 26% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Tencent etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Sep 7, 2024 @ 9.50 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$68 from US$74 last week from US$75 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Libya: Supply Disruption; 1m bpd
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2527 from US$2536 from US$2549;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$28 from US$29 from US$30;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.06 from US$4.22 from US$4.21;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$80 from US$80 from US$80;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$53,935 from US$59124 last week from US$61,112 two weeks ago @ 10.28 AM on Sep 07, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "39 Fear" from "63 Greed" last week from "53 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5408 from 5648 last week from 5635 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
h. Bought Nvidia
i. Bought Broadcom
j. Sold Grab
k. Sold UVXY

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17444 from 17989 from 17612;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19700; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 20,500 (end 2024),
e. Bought Tencent
f. Bought ASMPT
g. Bought Zijin
h. Bought Petrochina
i. Bought Mengniu
j. Added to Nongfu
k. Added to JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2766 from 2842 from 2854;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 36391 from 38648 from 38364;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. Topix: PE 13
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1653 from 1679 from 1624:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought YTL
c. Bought YTL Power
d. Bought D&O Greentech
e. Added to Hume Cement Ind

Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Sep 07 @ 4.40 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 142 from 146 last week from 146 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.32 from 3.31 from 3.34;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.67 from 0.68 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.11 from 1.11 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7953 from 7.7977 from 7.7975;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.33 from 4.32 from 4.38;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.30 from 1.31 from 1.31;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.08 from 7.09 from 7.14;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.19 from 101.73 last week from 101.33 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.72% from 3.91% last week from 3.80% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.65% from 3.92% from 3.91%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.49 from 96.82 from 96.35;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.14 from 79.34 from 78.98;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1919 from 1814 from 1768; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Sep 15, 2024 7:40 am

TOL @ Sep 15, 2024

window-dressing.jpg

3Q Window Dressing?

The markets were fairly strong the past few days and some "experts" are saying that it could be due to "Window Dressing" activities.

The 3Q performance of the fund managers will be taken on the closing on Sep 30. The Fund Managers would normally buy more of the better performing stocks and sell the worse performing ones during window dressing, to give the illusion that they are very good at picking stocks.

The Fund managers would also normally use the Cash in the fund, to try to push up their performance before the Sep 30 closing. The 3Q Window Dressing is also quite important as their Xmas Bonus is just around the corner.

In view of Window Dressing activities and the FOMC meeting on Sep 18, I should maybe try to stay in my positions for the next week or two. However, it's very hard not to take small profits in this type of trading market else you will lose it very quickly.

In view of the current "volatile markets", it is also good to remind oneself of what some of the "experts" have said about "Risk Management":-

1, Paul Tudor Jones: “Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

2. Benjamin Graham: "The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns."

3. Charles Ellis: “If you avoid large losses with a strong defense, the winnings will have every opportunity to take care of themselves.”

4. David Dreman: “History constantly demonstrates that investors are prone to adhere to the dictates of greed and fear. The way to wealth is not just to make money but to avoid loss.”

5. Seth Klarman: “The best investors…focus first on risk and only then, decide whether the projected return justifies taking each particular risk.”

Before we get too carried away with being 100% in Cash, we need to also balance things with the following quotes:-

1. Mellody Hobson: “The biggest risk of all, is not taking one.”

2. Robert G. Allen: “How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.”

For next week, besides the FOMC on Sept 18, we should also note that it's Quadruple Witching on Sept 20. Therefore, it could be very volatile on Sep 20 but I dont know which way it will go. Maybe buying UVXY before then, could be a good move but it will depends on it's valuation over the next few days.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (46% from 45% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 60% (21 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 20% (8 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 20% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Tencent etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Sep 14, 2024 @ 07.25 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69 from US$68 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Libya: Supply Disruption; 1m bpd
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2606 from US$2527 from US$2536;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$31 from US$28 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.22 from US$4.06 from US$4.22;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$80 from US$80 from US$80;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$60,384 from US$53,935 last week from US$59124 wo weeks ago @ 07.29 AM on Sep 14, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "49 Neutral" from "39 Fear" last week from "63 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5626 from 5408 last week from 5648 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Added to Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
h. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)
i. Sold Nvidia
j. Sold Broadcom

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17369 from 17444 from 17989;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19700; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 19,800 (end 2024),
e. Added to CR Holdings (1911)
f. Bought CNOOC
g. Sold Zijin

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 2704 from 2766 from 2842;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 36582 from 36391 from 38648;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. Topix: PE 13
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1652 from 1653 from 1679:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Malayan Cement
c. Traded Press Metal
d. Sold 1/2 YTL
e. Sold 1/2 Hume Cement
f. Sold YTL Power
g. Sold Sunway Construction

Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Sep 14 @ 10.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 141 from 142 last week from 146 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.31 from 3.32 from 3.31;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.11 from 1.11 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7995 from 7.7953 from 7.7977;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.30 from 4.33 from 4.32;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.31;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.09 from 7.08 from 7.09;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 101.11 from 101.19 last week from 101.73 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.66% from 3.72% last week from 3.91% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.59% from 3.65% from 3.92%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.06 from 96.49 from 96.82;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.63 from 79.14 from 79.34;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1890 from 1919 from 1814; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Sep 22, 2024 8:27 am

TOL @ Sep 22, 2024

Shutdown.jpeg

US Shutdown Oct 1st?

Quadruple Witching came on Friday and it was a non-event.

The next major risk could be the shutdown of the US government if they are not able to pass a funding plan by Oct 1. However, I think that it's also a non-event and we have seen a few of these episodes in the past years.

I'm more worried about the sentiment before the US Presidential Election. People are starting to be cautious and it's also an "Overbought" market.

Historically, October is also not a good month for the markets.

It's also a good time to move some money from Equities to Bonds before interest rates drop further. Anyway, my gut feeling is that they can only drop interest rates by at most 2% in the next 1.5 years else inflation may start to come back.

As we have had a strong rally this week, I took the opportunity to do some selling. My exposure to Equities is now about 35% compared to about 46% last week. I will continue to sell if the market continues to be strong next week.

Some "experts" are saying that the rally this week is due to the 50 bps drop in interest rates. My gut feel is that it's more due to "3Q Window Dressing" as the US market did dropped when the 50 bps was announced.

For next week, I think that there could still be some more "Window Dressing" activities.

For HK, I think that they would also try to continue to push the markets higher to suspend as many leveraged put warrants as possible. However, HK did rise close to 1000 points in the past 7 trading days and we should be quite close to some profit-taking activities.

In addition, a Trump Presidency will not be good for the HK & China markets. At the current rate, a Harris presidency is also not going to be that good either for the HK & China markets. Hence, I should remind myself to sell whatever I can in HK before the end of October.

I have a very bad habit of buying on dips. This time is different for HK so I should buy on very steep drops only. The risks have now increased for HK & China, with the coming US Presidential Election.

I need to also remind myself not to be too complacent. I have been talking about the "calm before the storm" and it may be getting closer to that event now. If and when that storm arrives, I know that I will not have an opportunity to get out.

Therefore, I should start buying some hedges soon eg. UVXY, SQQQ, 7552 (Inverse HK Tech 2x), 7568 (Inverse QQQ 2x) and 7500 (Inverse Hang Seng).

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (35% from 46% last week from 45% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 54% (16 Counters); Trading Market; To reduce to 5 counters only;
c. US: 26% (7 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 20% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF), Meituan, Tencent etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Sep 21, 2024 @ 07.25 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69 from US$68 last week from US$74 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Libya: Supply Disruption; 1m bpd
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; YS$2647 from US$2606 from US$2527;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.33 from US$4.22 from US$4.06;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$79 from US$80 from US$80;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$63084 from US$60,384 last week from US$53,935 two weeks ago @ 07.10 AM on Sep 21, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "63 Greed" from "49 Neutral" last week from "39 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5702 from 5626 last week from 5408 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought TMF (20+ Treasury Bull 3x ETF)
h. Traded Krispy Kreme (DNUT)
i. Sold Pinduoduo

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18258 from 17369 from 17444;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19700; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 19,800 (end 2024),
e. Sold 1/3 JD
f. Sold 4/5 CR Holdings (1911)
g. Sold CNOOC
h. Sold Alibaba
i. Sold Tencent
j. Sold China Mengniu
k. Sold Smoore

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 2737 from 2704 from 2766;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 37724 from 36582 from 36391;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. Topix: PE 13
e. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1670 from 1652 from 1653:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold Malayan Cement
c. Sold Hume Cement
d. Sold Theta
e. Sold D&O

Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Sep 20 @ 6.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 144 from 141 last week from 142 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.25 from 3.31 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.68 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.12 from 1.11 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7931 from 7.7995 from 7.7953;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.20 from 4.30 from 4.33;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.29 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.05 from 7.09 from 7.08;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 100.81 from 101.11 last week from 101.19 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.74% from 3.66% last week from 3.72% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.60% from 3.59% from 3.65%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.63 from 97.06 from 96.49;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 80.16 from 79.63 from 79.14;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1976 from 1890 from 1919; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Sep 29, 2024 8:12 am

TOL @ Sep 29, 2024

Euphoria.jpg

Bull Markets Die On Euphoria?

John Templeton: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria”

How true is the above quote? Hasn't the "Magnificent Seven' been euphoric for a while after the lengthy AI rally? How come the US bull market is not dead yet, after such a long euphoric rally?

And in HK over the past two weeks, does the 3000 points rise (+17%) qualify as euphoria? If yes, wouldn't there be a correction in HK soon as per John Templeton's quote? If not, can it then continue to grind higher until it's next Resistance at about 22,000 (+7%)?

Intuitively, I think that the HK market is now overbought. Therefore, I have been selling whatever I can, into the rally. The risk would be if it continues to grind higher for whatever reason, some of which need not be logical or rational.

Going forward, why would anyone in their right mind, be buying shares on the HK market now, after a 3000 points rise? Are there really going to be a lot of growth in these HK listed companies? Are their Valuation really that attractive now? Do you really think that an aircraft carrier can just turn around that quickly? If things are going to be so great, why did Oil correct in the past few days?

I need to remind myself that it's very dangerous now to trade the HK market. I should not initiate any more new position in HK until after we know who is the new US President.

I must also take a longer view now and should also change my trading strategy into a more longer term one. Trying to go for a quick 3% profit in the HK market now, is quite dangerous. If a counter in HK can go up 15% in a day on some lame reason, it can also drop 15% easily on some flimsy news.

For this week, we have the following bearish comments:-
1. John Paulson: Will exit the market if Kamala becomes President
a. Go into cash and gold
b. Harris’s plans could cost US$1.7 trillion
c. The 25% tax on unrealized gains would lead to massive selling across the board – stocks, bonds, real estate, art.

2. Doug Kass: The Threat of Market Structure
a. Passive Domination; About 75% of trading volume every day
b. Increased Crazy: Meme Stocks
c. Option Speculation Has Intensified: 0DTE (zero day to expiration)
d. Other Technological Advances Raise More Risks; Computer-generated investing strategies;
e. Heightened Risks of Expanded Transparency; Some of it is inaccurate.

For next week, there could be a small spike in the markets from the new money of the new month. However, I think that the Fund Managers may have already spent their Cash in advance this week for "Window Dressing".

I should hunker down until November 6. However, I have this bad habit of being complacent when I'm sitting on Cash. My exposure to Equities have now dropped from about 46% two weeks ago, to about 25% now. I should try to lower it further to 10% in the coming weeks.

If Kamala wins the US Presidency, it's very likely that the US Market will drop but it could be good for HK & China stocks.

If Trump wins the US Presidency, it would be very bad for HK & China stocks but could be good for US stocks.

As the US election can go either way, staying in Cash is probably the best option unless the markets tanked before Nov 6, which I'm preparing for, at this point in time.

I'm still waiting to buy some Inverse ETFs, both for the Nasdaq and HK. It's not easy to time it, especially when there's a lot of "irrational exuberance" now.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (25% from 35% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 38% (9 Counters); Overbought Market;
c. US: 34% (8 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 28% (8 Counters); Special Situations;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Sep 28, 2024 @ 07.45 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$69 from US$69 last week from US$68 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Replenishing 40m? .
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Libya: Supply Disruption; 600k bpd
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2681 from US$2647 last week from US$2606 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$32 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.59 from US$4.33 from US$4.22;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$81 from US$79 from US$80;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$65908 from US$63084 last week from US$60,384 two weeks ago @ 5.522 PM on Sep 27, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "68 Greed" from "63 Greed" last week from "49 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5738 from 5702 last week from 5626 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Visa
h. Sold Netease

2. HK Equities - Higher. 20632 from 18258 from 17369;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 22000; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 19,800 (end 2024),
e. Sold 1/2 Nongfu Spring
f. Sold JD
g. Sold China Overseas Land
h. Sold 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
i. Sold Lenovo
j. Sold ASMPT
k. Sold Petrochina
l. Sold Tencent Music

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3088 from 2737 from 2704;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. Sold 1/2 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1660 from 1670 from 1652:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade

Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Sep 27 @ 5.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 143 from 144 last week from 141 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.21 from 3.25 from 3.31;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converting SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.69 from 0.68 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.11 from 1.12 from 1.11;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7768 from 7.7931 from 7.7995;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.12 from 4.20 from 4.30;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.01 from 7.05 from 7.09;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 100.62 from 100.81 last week from 101.11 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.74% from 3.66% last week from 3.72% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.60% from 3.59% from 3.65%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 97.54 from 97.63 from 97.06;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 80.14 from 80.16 from 79.63;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2091 from 1976 from 1890; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

by **winston** » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:11 am

TOL @ Oct 06, 2024

Fool.jpg

Who Is The "Bigger Fool" ?

The HK market has gone up about 6000 points (35%) in about 2.5 weeks, on expectations that a Big Bazooka Stimulus will be unleashed soon.

And in a few of the Investment Whatsapp group that I'm in, people have also started talking about this "once-in-a-decade" HK rally.

People who have not traded HK shares for a while, are now suddenly interested in HK shares again. They dont seemed to care that the PEG has risen and that the growth of these HK listed companies will still be about 5% in the next 1 to 2 years.

It also does not matter to them that the potential growth from any Stimulus Program would only materialize in about 1.5 to 2 years time.

In addition, people who have been "under water for a long time" are now supposedly "breaking even" or even making some money. And now, they are justifying why their investment strategy is correct even though they have been losing money for quite some time. Suddenly, they are a "smart investor" again.

As for myself, I dont know whether this HK rally can continue and I have been selling into this rally. As mentioned a few weeks ago, I need to lower my heavy exposure to HK Equities before Nov 06, in case Trump wins the election.

My exposure to Equities have dropped to about 24% this week from about 46% about 3 weeks ago. It would be nice if I can bring it down further to about 15% before the US Election.

I have also started to try to "feel" the market, by shorting the markets through the following:-
1. UVXY (Volatility ETF)
2. PSQ (Inverse QQQ ETF)
3. 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x ETF)
4. 7552 (Hang Seng Tech Inverse 2x ETF)

From the above, my conclusion is the following:-

1. The US market is starting to feel weak. If it "feels" weaker, I may add some SQQQ (Inverse QQQ 3x ETF) to in addition to my PSQ (Inverse QQQ ETF)

2. I will buy some UVXY again if the VIX reaches 16 again

3. HK is still in "Cloud 9". It's too dangerous to short HK. There are a lot of "inexperienced irrational" people out there so it's best to let them finish their bullets first. Thereafter, only can we start to think of shorting the HK market.

4. This topping process in HK can take weeks (or months) although my gut feel is that it would be sooner than later as "bull markets do die on euphoria". It just need a good excuse to topple over.

5. If one wants to "momentum trade" the HK market, one can buy some "Leveraged Call Warrants" at about 30 times leverage. That means a 1% movement on the Hang Seng can give you either a 30% profit or 30% loss. This is playing with fire and if one does not want to be burnt, one must be able to cut one's losses very quickly, sometimes within seconds of putting in the order. Ideally, the stop loss should be entered immediately after the purchase.

I need to also remind myself that holding a stock after it has risen 30%, is actually equivalent to buying that stock after it has risen 30%.

Would you buy a stock after it has risen 30% in 2.5 weeks? If not, why are you still holding that stock? Is it because you think that there's a "bigger fool" that will buy it from you later? Perhaps an army of new inexperienced retail investors or funds that are late to the party?

Intuitively, I too believed that there are still some "bigger fools" out there. Hence, I am still holding onto to few positions in HK although I have done some trimming recently.

Finally, the right strategy for the HK market from here, is probably to have a "Trailing Stop Loss". That way, one can ride the upside while limiting any downside. The question is what percentage to use for that "trailing stop-loss".

If you use a narrow stop loss, say 2%, you could be taken out easily in a volatile market. If you use too wide stop loss, say 25%, you may lose all your entire recent gains. Perhaps the right answer is somewhere in between, say 7%.

Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (25% from 35% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 26% (6 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 35% (8 Counters); ETFs & Oversold Counters @ Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 39% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Oct 5, 2024 @ 07.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74 from US$69 last week from US$69 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Iran: Will Israel attack Iran?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2673 from US$2681 from US$2647;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$32 from US$32 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.57 from US$4.59 from US$4.33;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$82 from US$81 from US$79;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$62061 from US$65908 last week from US$63084 two weeks ago @ 7.26 AM on Oct 05, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240

Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "74 Greed" from "68 Greed" last week from "63 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5751 from 5738 last week from 5702 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5900; 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 20; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22737 from 20632 from 18258;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Target: Citi: 19,800 (end 2024),
e. Sold 1/2 Baidu
f. Sold Nongfu Spring
g. Sold AIA
h. Sold A50 ETF (2822)
i. Traded 7500 (Hang Seng Inverse 2x)
j. Traded 7552 (Hang Senfg Tech Inverse 2x)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3337 from 3088 from 2737;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. Sold A50 ETF (2822)

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1630 from 1660 from 1670:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Hartalega
c. Bought Kossan
d. Bought Sunway Construction

Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 5 @ 7.40 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 149 from 143 last week from 144 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.24 from 3.21 from 3.25;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.68 from 0.69 from 0.68;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.10 from 1.11 from 1.12;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7685 from 7.7768 from 7.7931;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.22 from 4.12 from 4.20;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.30 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.02 from 7.01 from 7.05;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 102.49 from 100.62 last week from 100.81 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.97% from 3.74% last week from 3.66% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.92% from 3.60% from 3.59%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.95 from 97.54 from 97.63;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.60 from 80.14 from 80.16;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1941 from 2091 from 1976; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

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