Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 6)?

storm.jpg

It's now the third week of the war and Oil has spiked > 40% since the war started.

In the meantime, the markets have not crashed yet and are still quite complacent.

The war has now morph into an attack on the public infrastructures of Iran's neighbours eg. Airports, Oil Storage Depots, Desalination Plants etc.

The Administration tried to calm the oil markets by mentioning that the war will be over soon. That caused oil to retreat violently but the WTI is now back to the US$99 level.

Iran probably wants to prolong the war as long as possible, to hurt the US economy and the Republican's Mid-Term election in Nov 2026.

The Administration has now threatened to destroy the Oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. If they do go ahead with it (a big IF), Iran will then lose a major source of income. This is probably what Israel wants to weaken Iran but it will also reduce the Global Oil Supply in the medium term. Thereafter, Iran will surely retaliate, probably on softer targets.

I've decided a few days ago that his war will no longer be over that soon. Therefore, it's not necessary to be adventurous. This war can now easily go on for another few more weeks.

As a trader, I need to remind myself to very agile and flexible. Prices can go both ways and TACO & Company, will be doing their best to whack the traders.

I have been trying to sell whenever I can over the past week. At the same time, I have some hedges in place eg. SQQQ, UVXY, XLE, CNOOC, TMF, Petrochina and Hibiscus, in case things worsen from here.

I have yet to see any Cybersecurity Issues, which I thought will be one of the fronts of this war. Will we be seeing some Cybersecurity Issues going forward? My broking account has been off-line for the past few days but I cant see how it's related to this Iran War.

Anyway, I'm now cleaning up my Watchlist. When the time comes, I will know what I want to buy very quickly. I dont want to be buying now, in case it drops another, say 30%, from here.

During the Asian Financial Crisis, I recalled that Equities dropped about 50%, while the Local Currency dropped about 30%. Suddenly, you have lost 80% in USD terms! And a long bear market can continue for a year before it turns around. (The Japanese market didnt go anywhere for > 20 years after the "Black Monday Crash" in 1989 till about 2012).

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Mar 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event as Inflation is expected to rise
2. Mar 31 - Apr 02: Trump to visit China;
3. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting
4. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
5. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting
6. Jul 01: USMCA Ending
7. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (64% from 65% last week from 64% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 27% (14 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 45% (14 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; Yen? Gold? CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Oil & Hedges; To sell before the market turns around;
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$99 from US$91 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Jun 2022); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. Unable to get Captains and Crews to sail through Hormuz
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$5062 from US$5159 from US$5267;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$81 from US$84 from US$94;
Resistance: US$115; Support: US$70
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 62; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.76 from US$5.81 from US$6.09;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$70,668 @ "9.01 AM March 14, 2026" from US$68,010 @ "6.17 PM on Mar 7, 2026" from US$63,892 @ "3.38 AM Feb 28, 2026"
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "20 Extreme Fear" from "27 Fear" last year from "43 Fear" last week two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6632 from 6740 last week from 6879 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25465 from 25768 last week from 26657;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Petrochina
f. Bought CNOOC
g. Sold CATL
h. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4095 from 4124 from 4163;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Flat; 1718 from 1717 from 1753:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Hibiscus
d. Sold 1/2 Telekom Malaysia


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 14, 2026 @ 9.15 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 160 from 158 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.07 from 3.09 from 3.08;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.15 from 1.16 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8280 from 7.8216 from 7.8233;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.94 from 3.95 from 3.89;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.26;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.89 from 6.91 from 6.86;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.49 from 98.86 from 97.65;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.28% from 4.13% from 3.96%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.73% from 3.56% from 3.38%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.25 from 95.91 from 97.25;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 7)?

storm.jpg

It's now the fourth week of the war and Oil has spiked > 45% since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the markets are still quite complacent, with the S&P 500 dropping only 6% from the start of the war, although the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is now at "15 Extreme Fear".

Oil prices are at an elevated level and the Administration is still trying to whack the Oil Bulls. The latest action being the unsanctioning of Iranian Oil that are already in the water (140m barrels vs 20m daily Straits of Hormuz traffic).

Meanwhile, there are reports that Iran is charging a transit fee of about US$2m. (A fully loaded Oil tanker can be worth up to US$300m). Therefore, some oil could be passing through the Straits of Hormuz after all.

Although the US would like to wind down the war ASAP, Iran would probably like to prolong the war as long as possible. It's no longer a unilateral decision to end the war.

As mentioned last week, this war is no longer an "excursion" and it can continue for at least a few more weeks.

Anyway, there are about US$8t in the Money Markets now. There's quite a bit of money on the sidelines now. The minute that there's some indication that the Iran war will be over, those money will be quickly deployed.

Therefore, one has to be very nimble and alert in this type of market, not only to get out of any positions in Oil & Gas, Hedges, Inverse ETFs etc but also to quickly deploy any "Risk-On" capital.

However, if this war drags on for a few more months (a big "if"), then there's a need to spread the risks and be not too adventurous. There are always unintended consequences from such situations and tail-end risks can suddenly appear.

In the meantime, I have been monitoring the "extremes" in the markets so see whether there are any opportunities out there:-
1. Silver: 40% dropped from the peak in Jan 2026
2. Bitcoin: 44% dropped from the peak in Sep 2025
3. JPY: 22% dropped from the range high in Jan 2023;
4. MYR: 18% rise from the low in Feb 2024

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
3. May: Postponed Trump's China Visit
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (58% from 64% last week from 65% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%?;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 36% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 29% (15 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 35% (12 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$94 from US$99 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Jun 2022); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. Unable to get Captains and Crews to sail through Hormuz
e. Unsanctioning Iranian Oil in Water: 140m barrels; 1-2 weeks Hormuz;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4575 from US$5062 from US$5159;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$70 from US$81 from US$84;
Resistance: US$93; US$115; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.37 from US$5.76 from US$5.81;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$70, 522 @ "7.22 AM March 21" from US$70,668 @ "9.01 AM March 14, 2026" from US$68,010 @ "6.17 PM;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "15 Extreme Fear" from "20 Extreme Fear" last week from "27 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6506 from 6632 last week from 6740 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought META (FB)
j. Sold EWY (Korea ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25277 from 25465 from 25768;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
d. Bought Alibaba
e. Bought Tencent Music
f. Bought Smoore
g. Bought Tencent
h. Sold Petrochina
i. Sold New Oriental Education
j. Traded CNOOC

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3957 from 4095 from 4124;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1721 from 1718 from 1717:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought IGB Reit
d. Bought SunReit
c. Sold Telekom Malaysia
d. Sold Maybank
e. Sold CIMB
f. Sold Public Bank


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 20, 2026 @ 10.18 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 159 from 160 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.07 from 3.07 from 3.09;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.15 from 1.15 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8344 from 7.8280 from 7.8216;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 3.94 from 3.94 from 3.95;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.89 from 6.89 from 6.91;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.74 from 100.49 from 98.86;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.38% from 4.28% from 4.13%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.91% from 3.73% from 3.56%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 94.95 from 95.25 from 95.91;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 8)?

storm.jpg

It's now the fifth week of the war and Oil has spiked about 55% since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the markets are still quite complacent, with the S&P 500 dropping only 9% from the start of the war, although the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is now at "10 Extreme Fear".

As mentioned, whenever oil prices are at an elevated level, the Administration will try to whack the Oil Bulls.

However, when the boy cries wolf too many times, nobody will believe him anymore.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
3. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (55% from 58% last week from 64% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%?;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 40% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 28% (14 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 32% (11 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$100 from US$94 last week from US$99 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Jun 2022); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
d. Unable to get Captains and Crews to sail through Hormuz
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4524 from US$4575 from US$5062;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Flat; US$70 from US$70 from US$81;
Resistance: US$93; US$115; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.49 from US$5.37 from US$5.76;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$65,991 @ "6.26 AM March 28" from US$70, 522 @ "7.22 AM March 21" from US$70,668 @ "9.01 AM March 14, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "10 Extreme Fear" from "15 Extreme Fear" last week from "20 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6369 from 6506 last week from 6632 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 24952 from 25277 from 25465;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Added to Popmart
f. Bought China Life
g. Sold Smoore

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3914 from 3957 from 4095;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1713 from 1721 from 1718:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/2 Hibiscus
d. Sold IGB Reit
e. Traded SunReit


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 27, 2026 @ 9.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 160 from 159 last week from 160 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.12 from 3.07 from 3.07;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.69 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.15 from 1.15 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8338 from 7.8344 from 7.8280;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.01 from 3.94 from 3.94;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.91 from 6.89 from 6.89;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.99 from 99.74 from 100.49;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.43% from 4.38% from 4.28%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 3.91% from 3.91% from 3.73%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 94.66 from 94.95 from 95.25;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 9)?

storm.jpg

It's now the sixth week of the war and Oil has spiked > 70% since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the markets are still quite complacent, with the S&P 500 dropping only 6% from the start of the war, although the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is at "19 Extreme Fear".

As mentioned a few weeks back, whenever oil prices are at an elevated level, they will try to whack the Oil Bulls and this week was not an exception.

Do you really think that by just walking away without a ceasefire agreement, the war will really end, while the Straits of Hormuz is still closed? And how long do you think it will take to assemble a multi-national defense force to forcibly open up the Strait of Hormuz?

Ultimatums after ultimatums, same old same old, wolf wolf wolf ... yawn, yawn.

I'm surprised that after the boy has cried wolf so many times, people still believe him. Or are they manipulating the markets? Cant you see the pattern of the announcements and the supposedly insider's trading before the announcements?

Theoretically speaking, a "stabilisation slush fund" of say US$1t, can move the markets, as the Oil market only has S$40b of daily turnover, while the US Equities Markets has a daily turnover of only US$1t. When you add in the firepower of the "allies" eg. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, GCC etc and the use of leverage of say 30x, that's quite a bit of firepower, that can move the markets in the short term. (And you dont want to be going the against the market at that time whether buying or selling).

Economically, I think that we will be facing a global stagflation with prices rising say 15%. It will be a slow motion train wreck over the next few months. Under such a situation, I cannot see how the markets can continue to go up in the medium term, when revenues, earnings and margins, are going to be affected.

My exposure to the markets is about 56%. It's slightly on the higher side but inside that number, I also have some hedges eg. Oil (XLE & CNOOC), SQQQ (3x Inverse Nasdaq), UVXY (Volatility ETF) and TMF (3x Treasury +20 years).

Therefore, whenever there are bouts of rips (or extreme dips), they should be treated as "selling opportunities". One has to be very nimble and flexible to be trading both sides of this market. If one is the "buy & hold" type, then it's better to stay on the sidelines as this is a "trading market" and you will be facing a "water torture" situation. (Drip Drip and suddenly, you have lost say 15% ).

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
3. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (56% from 55% last week from 58% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%?;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 42% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 29% (14 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 29% (9 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$112 from US$100 last week from US$94 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4680 from US$4524 from US$4575;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$73 from US$70 from US$70;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.58 from US$5.49 from US$5.37;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$66,939 @ "8.43 AM April 04" from US$65,991 @ "6.26 AM March 28" from US$70, 522 @ "7.22 AM March 21";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "19 Extreme Fear" from "10 Extreme Fear" last week from "15 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6369 from 6506 last week from 6632 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)
j. Sold Amazon (AMZN)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25116 from 24952 from 25277;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Added to CNOOC
f. Sold China Life

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3880 from 3914 from 3957;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1696 from 1713 from 1721:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Hibiscus
d. Sold SunReit


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 4, 2026 @ 9.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 160 from 160 last week from 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.13 from 3.12 from 3.07;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.69 from 0.69 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.15 from 1.15 from 1.15;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8375 from 7.8338 from 7.8344;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.03 from 4.01 from 3.94;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.86 from 6.91 from 6.89;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.19 from 99.99 from 99.74;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.35% from 4.43% from 4.38%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.85% from 3.91% from 3.91%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 95.72 from 94.66 from 94.95;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 10)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 7th week of the war and Oil is still about 48% higher since the start of the war (despite the 15% drop a few days ago).

In the meantime, the markets are still very complacent with the S&P 500 dropping only about 2% from the start of the war.

The S&P is behaving as if nothing has really changed eg. global stagflation, halting of interest rates decline, supply chain disruption etc.

This is now definitely a TACO Trading Market:-
1. Sell any Rips
2. Buy any extreme Dips
3. If you dont take your profits, it may not be there tomorrow
4. If you hesitate in cutting small losses, they could balloon into big losses later

This type of binary volatile trading market is not for everyone. (If you cannot stand the heat, then you should not be in the kitchen).

The Global Stagflation will be coming. How long will it take before it becomes headline news? 3 months? 6 months? Are you prepared for it? I'm already hearing about plastic products and fertiliser rising 25%, no diesel at the petrol stations etc.

The only reason why the markets have not tanked is because of the Liquidity in the system. There are still plenty of money on the sidelines.

So when would those Liquidity be vaporised and what would be the trigger?

My trading activity has reduced significantly. I'm selling whatever I can whenever the market rips. I'm no longer buying unless there's a very very convincing story.

For this type of market, I need to remind myself to always apply a discount of say 30%, to all of my calculations, to take into account the increasing risks eg. global stagflation.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 2026: Powell Term Ends; Non-Event
3. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit; Tariffs?
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Tariffs?
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (57% from 56% last week from 55% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%?;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 41% (13 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 30% (14 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 29% (10 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$97 from US$112 last week from US$100 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4787 from US$4680 from US$4524;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$76 from US$73 from US$70;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.89 from US$5.58 from US$5.49;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$72,941 @ "8.41 AM April 11, 2026" from US$66,939 @ "8.43 AM April 04" from US$65,991 @ "6.26 AM March 28";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "38 Fear" from "19 Extreme Fear" last week from "10 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6817 from 6582 last week from 6506 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25894 from 25116 from 24952;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold 1/2 Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3986 from 3880 from 3914;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1691 from 1696 from 1713:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought PPB


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Apr 11, 2026 @ 8.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 159 from 160 last week from 160 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.12 from 3.13 from 3.12;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.71 from 0.69 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.17 from 1.15 from 1.15;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8301 from 7.8375 from 7.8338;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.97 from 4.03 from 4.01;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.27 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.82 from 6.86 from 6.91;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 98.70 from 100.19 from 99.99;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.32% from 4.35% from 4.43%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.80% from 3.85% from 3.91%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.24 from 95.72 last week from 94.66 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 11)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 8th week of the war and Oil is still about 30% higher since the start of the war. This is despite the 11% drop on Friday and the 15% drop last week.

In the meantime, the markets are still very complacent. The S&P 500 has now surpassed it's level before the start of the war.

It's behaving as if there's no coming slow motion train wreck eg. global stagflation, interest rate hike, supply chain disruption, demand destruction, food shortages etc.

Both Iran and the US have mentioned on Friday that Hormuz is now opened (subject to a long list of conditions). Do you really know what are those conditions? If not, why would you be excited with the announcement and be buying Equities on Friday? And the latest is that the Hormuz is now closed. Ha ..

Anyway, if there's no agreement by Wednesday, the sparks may fly again. Maybe we dont even need to wait till Wednesday.. One day is eternity for a lunatic.

I still think that the right strategy is to sell into any Rips as I see a coming global slowdown despite the widespread disinformation out there by the Propaganda Departments especially on X, Tik Tok, FB, Youtube etc.

Nowadays, many people are too lazy to think for themselves. Instead, they allow the disinformation on X, Tik Tok, FB, Youtube etc. to do their thinking. Some even get their news on X, Tik Tok, FB, Youtube etc instead of the established media outlets (who will normally first fact checked any info before it's publication).

Thinking is hard work as you need to first verify and fact checked the information. Thereafter, you have to explore the various scenarios. Finally, you have to assign probabilities to those scenarios and then project out the outcomes.

In addition, by forwarding such disinformation videos from X, FB, Youtube, Tik Tok etc, it's as if they have done a bit of thinking on the subject, without realising that in actual fact, they have just been subtly brainwashed by those disinformation.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 15: Powell Term Ends; Non-Event
3. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit ?
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event
6. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301
7. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (53% from 56% last week from 55% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 39% (11 Counters); AI, Oil;
b. US: 26% (11 Counters); AI, Oil;
c. Malaysia: 35% (11 Counters); Banks, Oil, Palm Oil
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? US? Europe? CHF? SG? Japan? China? HK?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$84 from US$97 last week from US$112 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4880 from US$4787 from US$4680;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$82 from US$76 from US$73;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.11 from US$5.89 from US$5.58;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "US$77,175 @ 8.02 AM April 18, 2026" from "US$72,941 @ 8.41 AM April 11, 2026" from "US$66,939 @ 8.43 AM April 04";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "68 Greed" from "38 Fear" last week from "19 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7126 from 6817 last week from 6582 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold Meta (FB)
j. Sold Microsoft (MSFT)
k. Sold Trump Media (DJT)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25894 from 25116 from 24952;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold Trip.com

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4051 from 3986 from 3880;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. Sold 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1691 from 1696 from 1713:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Ambank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Apr 17, 2026 @ 3.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 159 from 159 last week from 160 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.11 from 3.12 from 3.13;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.72 from 0.71 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.18 from 1.17 from 1.15;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8287 from 7.8301 from 7.8375;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.96 from 3.97 from 4.03;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.27 from 1.27 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.83 from 6.82 from 6.86;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 98.22 from 98.70 from 100.19;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.25% from 4.32% from 4.35%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.70% from 3.80% from 3.85%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.08 from 96.24 last week from 95.72 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 12)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 9th week of the war and Oil is still about 45% higher since the start of the war. This is despite the 11% drop last week and the 15% drop about two weeks ago.

In the meantime, the markets are still very complacent and the S&P 500 has now surpassed it's level before the start of the war.

Both Iran and the US were supposedly going to talk in Pakistan again but that trip has now been cancelled. Yawn. Yawn. What else is new?

I'm slowly reducing my exposure to Equities and selling whenever there are rips. My exposure to Equities is now about 47% from about 60% not too long ago.

I have no problem continuing my selling of Equities (probably to the machines) as I see a coming global stagflation with supply chain disruptions, demand destruction, food shortages, rising unemployment, rising violence, elevated interest rates etc., even with the opening of Hormuz. I dont want to be the 'greater fool" in this type of erratic markets.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
2. May 1: Trump's 60 Days Foreign Offensive To End (Without Congress Approval)
2. May 15: Powell Term Ends; Non-Event
3. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit ?
4. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
5. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event
6. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event
7. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301
8. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (47% from 53% last week from 56% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (9 Counters); AI,
b. US: 28% (10 Counters); AI,
c. Malaysia: 42% (12 Counters); Banks
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$94 from US$84 last week from US$97 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4741 from US$4880 from US$4787;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$76 from US$82 from US$76;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$6.03 from US$6.11 from US$5.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "77,995 @ 10.40 PM Apr 24, 2026" from "US$77,175 @ 8.02 AM Apr 18, 2026" from "US$72,941 @ 8.41 AM Apr 11, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "66 Greed" from "68 Greed" last week from "38 Fear" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7126 from 6817 last week from 6582 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold Novo Nordisk (NVO)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 25986 from 25894 from 25116;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold CNOOC
f. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4080 from 4051 from 3986;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1720 from 1691 from 1696:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Alliance Bank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Apr 24, 2026 @ 10.42 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 159 from 159 last week from 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.11 from 3.11 from 3.12;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.71 from 0.72 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.17 from 1.18 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8345 from 7.8287 from 7.8301;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 3.97 from 3.96 from 3.97;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.28 from 1.27 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.83 from 6.83 from 6.82;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.62 from 98.22 from 98.70;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.31% from 4.25% last week from 4.32% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.78% from 3.70% from 3.80%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.89 from 97.08 last week from 96.24 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 13)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 10th week of the war and Oil is now about 57% higher since the start of the war.

Going forward, there could be three scenarios:-
1. Short Iran War; No major impact on earnings. Probably strong markets.
2. Iran War ending in a few months. Some impact on earnings. Probably flat markets.
3. Long Iran War. Global Stagflation. Supply Chain Disruption. Demand Destruction. Major Impact on Earnings. Probably declining markets.

At this point in time, the markets are expecting Scenario 1 and behaving as if the Iran War will not have any effect on it's earnings. The current ample Liquidity in the markets is also fueling the complacency. (Once those Liquidity has been used up, the markets will be back to focusing on Earnings).

If things do not improve quickly, the markets could be looking at Scenario 2 quite soon.

We are also hitting the time of the year where the markets are generally weak as the traders would be going off on their summer holidays. (Sell In May And Go Away).

In the past, there's no "Truth Social" messages to whack the portfolio of the traders when they are on holidays. So the traders kept some of their positions even when on holidays.

However, for this year, I think that they will be liquidating most of their positions before they go on their summer break. (Why not liquidate the bulk of the positions now while the going is good and have that "peace of mind" when on holidays?).

My strategy remains "cautiously bearish". I continue to sell into any rips. I'm still buying on some dips. I should remind myself to be more careful. However, it's quite difficult to resist some of the offers after the dips. Maybe if I want to continue buying on the dips then I should have a smaller position size.

My exposure to Equities is now about 51% compared to my goal of 40% for this type of market.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. May 15: Powell Term Ends; Non-Event
2. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit ?
3. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
4. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event
5. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event
6. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301
7. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event

Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (51% from 47% last week from 53% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 39% (10 Counters); AI,
b. US: 22% (9 Counters); AI,
c. Malaysia: 39% (12 Counters); Banks
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$102 from US$94 last week from US$84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4661 from US$4741 from US$4880;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$77 from US$76 from US$82;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$6.01 from US$6.03 from US$6.11;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "78,209 @ 8.13 AM May 02 2026" from "77,995 @ 10.40 PM Apr 24, 2026" from "US$77,175 @ 8.02 AM Apr 18, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "67 Greed" from "66 Greed" last week from "68 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7230 from 7126 last week from 6817 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7300
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25776 from 25986 from 25894;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought CATL
f. Bought Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4112 from 4080 from 4051;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1722 from 1720 from 1691:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Ambank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on May 02, 2026 @ 8.18 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 157 from 159 last week from 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.12 from 3.11 from 3.11;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.72 from 0.71 from 0.72;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8350 from 7.8345 from 7.8287;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 3.97 from 3.97 from 3.96;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.27 from 1.28 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.83 from 6.83 from 6.83;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 98.21 from 98.62 from 98.22;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.37% from 4.31% last week from 4.25% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.88% from 3.78% from 3.70%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.40 from 96.89 last week from 97.08 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 14)?

It's now the 11th week of the war and Oil is about 46% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the US markets continue to grind higher to record highs.

However, when you look at the sectors that are doing well, it's only the Semiconductors and AI plays, that are moving up. The rest of the market is not doing that great.

Unfortunately, I dont really understand the Semiconductor or AI Industries so I do not have much exposure there.

If I want to do some "punting" in the Semiconductor or AI sectors, I may buy some Semiconductor or AI ETF, probably with a small position size and a stop-loss.

Anyway, I see a "slow motion train wreck" coming (except for the Semis and AI sector) so I have been selling into the rally and raising as much Cash as possible.

My exposure to Equities in now at about 40% of my Liquid Assets, from about 60% three weeks ago. I will try to bring it down further to about 30% before Jul 24th (Deadline for Tariffs from Regulation 301).

As mentioned last week, the traders will be going away soon for their Summer Holidays so it's not a bad time to sell into any rallies.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. May 15: Powell Term Ends; Non-Event
2. May 14 & 15: Trump's China Visit;
3. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event
4. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event
5. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event
6. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301
7. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (40% from 51% last week from 47% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before the next crash;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); AI,
b. US: 30% (9 Counters); AI,
c. Malaysia: 42% (10 Counters); Banks
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$95 from US$102 last week from US$94 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4731 from US$4661 from US$4741;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$81 from US$77 from US$76;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.30 from US$6.01 from US$6.03;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; "80,297 @ 9.21 AM May 9 2026" from "78,209 @ 8.13 AM May 02 2026" from "77,995 @ 10.40 PM Apr 24, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Flat; "67 Greed" from "67 Greed" last week from "66 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7399 from 7230 last week from 7126 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7500
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26393 from 25776 from 25986;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold CATL
f. Sold Tencent
g. Sold 1/2 Popmart

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4180 from 4112 from 4080;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1722 from 1720 from 1691:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Ambank
d. Sold Alliance Bank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on May 08, 2026 @ 4.14 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 159 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.09 from 3.12 from 3.11;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.72 from 0.72 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8295 from 7.8350 from 7.8345;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.92 from 3.97 from 3.97;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.27 from 1.27 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.80 from 6.83 from 6.83;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 98.08 from 98.21 from 98.62;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.36% from 4.37% last week from 4.31% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.89% from 3.88% from 3.78%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.52 from 96.40 last week from 96.89 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.