TOL @ Oct 19, 2025
Slow-Motion Train Wreck?
The US markets recovered slightly this week from TACO's outburst a week ago.
It's interesting to note that TACO has now mentioned that the 100% Tariff is not sustainable. So why bring it up in the first place? To bring the markets down? Why?
HK performed below expectations too especially when the Fourth Plenum is going to be held in Beijing next week. Was the "National Team" buying while the army of retail investors were selling?
Anyway, are we now witnessing a slow-motion train wreck?
Can the expected reduction in interest rates on Oct 29th, be able to really save the US economy, that is currently reeling from Stagflation, Tariffs, Government Shutdown, Elevated Interest Rates, Unemployment, ICE Raids etc.
And what could speed up the slow-motion train wreck?
Is the US$19b losses in Cryptos enough to generate some Margin Calls to cause the "House of Card" to tumble? US$19b looks like a small number though. Having said that, Bitcoin has lost about 16% very quickly.
What about the bad loans at the US Regional Banks? Zions, Western Alliance and Jefferies were all hit this week. Even JPM lost US$170m from Tricolor. However, the cockroaches are not appearing yet.
As for the Tariffs, everyone is expecting TACO to de-escalate after escalating the issue. No new issue here either.
However, with any "Black Swan" event, it's those Risk that you have not considered, that could wipe you out quickly. Anyway, when the "Subprime Crisis" and the "Asian Financial Crisis" started, nobody expected it to snow-ball into such a big issue.
Therefore, it's good to remind myself to be "Adequately Diversified" and to avoid the "Overcrowded Trades".
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Oct 20 - 23: China Fourth Plenum
4. Oct 28 - 29: US FOMC Meeting; 50 bps cut?
5. Oct 29 - Nov 01: Trump & Xi Meeting?
6. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (35% from 37% from 40% of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 32% (9 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 31% (8 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 37% (12 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$58 from US$59 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4213 from US$4000 from US$3908;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 4000
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$50 from US$47 from US$48;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$4.97 from US$4.89 from US$5.11;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.10
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$106,641 ( as of Oct 18, 2025 @ 7.40 AM) from US$112,670 last week from US$122,070 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "27 Fear" from "29 Fear" last week from "54 Neutral" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6664 from 6553 last week from 6716 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Lower; 25247 from 26282 last week from 27141 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
e. Bought 3416 (HSCEI Covered Call ETF)
3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3840 from 3894 from 3883;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1607 from 1626 from 1635:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Hong Leong Bank
d. Sold DNEX Warrants
Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Oct 18 @ 11.10 AM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 151 from 153 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.26 from 3.25 from 3.27;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7679 from 7.7814 from 7.7812;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.23 from 4.22 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 7.13 from 7.12 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.54 from 99.38 last week from 97.88 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.01% from 4.05% from 4.12%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.46% from 3.52% from 3.58%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.24 from 96.34 from 97.47;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
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Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Oct 19, 2025 8:41 am
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113063
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Oct 26, 2025 9:46 am
TOL @ Oct 26, 2025
You Cant Predict But You Can Prepare
The markets continued to grind higher this week.
The markets seemed to have shrugged off the recent dip in the Gold & Silver markets and we still do not why the precious metals corrected.
And before that, there was the dip in Cryptos. However, that was due to Trump's threat of a 100% additional tariff on China.
Anyway, the market players seemed to be wearing rose coloured glasses and are quite sure that the markets will grind higher from the following:-
a. Rates cut of at least 25 bps on Oct 29
b. Good Trump-Xi Meeting in Korea on Oct 30
c. Good forward projections during the current US Earnings Season
Or are the markets being manipulated by Invisible Hands?
It's strange that the market participants are able to ignore the coming US Stagflation, Tariffs, Ukraine War, Supply Chain Disruption, Global Slowdown, US$ 38t Debt etc.
Anyway, I continue to be "cautiously bearish" while punting on special situations.
I would like to also remind myself of Howard Mark's comment;-
"You can't predict but you can prepare”.
We now live in a chaotic and unpredictable world. I need to accept that and thereafter, act accordingly.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Oct 26 - 28: Trump at Asean Meeting; Meetings between US & China;
4. Oct 28 - 29: US FOMC Meeting; 25 bps cut?
5. Oct 30: Trump & Xi Meeting in Korea?
6. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (39% from 35% last week from 37% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (8 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 27% (8 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$62 from US$58 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US$4138 from US$4213 from US$4000;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 4000
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Lower; US$49 from US$50 from US$47;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.12 from US$4.97 from US$4.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$110,970 (as of 7.45 AM on Oct 25, 2025) from US$106,641 last week from US$112,670 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "33 Fear" from "27 Fear" last week from "29 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6792 from 6664 last week from 6553 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26166 from 25247 last week from 26282 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Added to PopMart
e. Sold HSBC
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3950 from 3840 from 3894;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1613 from 1607 from 1626:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Hong Leong Bank
d. Sold DNEX Warrants
e. Traded Perak Transit
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 24 @ 5.10 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 153 from 151 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.25 from 3.26 from 3.25;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7693 from 7.7679 from 7.7814;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.22 from 4.23 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.12 from 7.13 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.04 from 98.54 last week from 99.38 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.99% from 4.01% from 4.05%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.48% from 3.46% from 3.52%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.74 from 97.24 from 96.34;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
You Cant Predict But You Can Prepare
The markets continued to grind higher this week.
The markets seemed to have shrugged off the recent dip in the Gold & Silver markets and we still do not why the precious metals corrected.
And before that, there was the dip in Cryptos. However, that was due to Trump's threat of a 100% additional tariff on China.
Anyway, the market players seemed to be wearing rose coloured glasses and are quite sure that the markets will grind higher from the following:-
a. Rates cut of at least 25 bps on Oct 29
b. Good Trump-Xi Meeting in Korea on Oct 30
c. Good forward projections during the current US Earnings Season
Or are the markets being manipulated by Invisible Hands?
It's strange that the market participants are able to ignore the coming US Stagflation, Tariffs, Ukraine War, Supply Chain Disruption, Global Slowdown, US$ 38t Debt etc.
Anyway, I continue to be "cautiously bearish" while punting on special situations.
I would like to also remind myself of Howard Mark's comment;-
"You can't predict but you can prepare”.
We now live in a chaotic and unpredictable world. I need to accept that and thereafter, act accordingly.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Oct 26 - 28: Trump at Asean Meeting; Meetings between US & China;
4. Oct 28 - 29: US FOMC Meeting; 25 bps cut?
5. Oct 30: Trump & Xi Meeting in Korea?
6. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (39% from 35% last week from 37% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (8 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 27% (8 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$62 from US$58 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US$4138 from US$4213 from US$4000;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 4000
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Lower; US$49 from US$50 from US$47;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.12 from US$4.97 from US$4.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$110,970 (as of 7.45 AM on Oct 25, 2025) from US$106,641 last week from US$112,670 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "33 Fear" from "27 Fear" last week from "29 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6792 from 6664 last week from 6553 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26166 from 25247 last week from 26282 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Added to PopMart
e. Sold HSBC
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3950 from 3840 from 3894;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1613 from 1607 from 1626:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Hong Leong Bank
d. Sold DNEX Warrants
e. Traded Perak Transit
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 24 @ 5.10 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 153 from 151 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.25 from 3.26 from 3.25;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7693 from 7.7679 from 7.7814;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.22 from 4.23 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.12 from 7.13 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.04 from 98.54 last week from 99.38 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.99% from 4.01% from 4.05%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.48% from 3.46% from 3.52%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.74 from 97.24 from 96.34;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113063
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Nov 02, 2025 9:38 am
TOL @ Nov 02, 2025
The Big Picture (Update)
As there are many uncertainties and moving parts out there, it's time to look at the "Big Picture" again
1. Interest Rates:- The Feds mentioned that they may not reduce interest rates in December. However, things are slowing down in the US. At the same time, there's also about $28t of the National Debt to be refinanced over the next four years. Many moving parts here.
2. USD:- The USD has been slowly appreciating over the past few weeks. There is still no alternative to the USD. However, a mere 2% shift away from US Assets, can easily result in a US$1t outflow.
3. Japan:- The new PM wants to unleash Abenomics 2.0. If that's the case, the JPY will weaken which will lead to higher inflation. A weaker JPY will be good for the Japanese Trading House and the Nikkei 225. However, if inflation rises a lot, the BOJ may be forced to increase interest rates which may result in some Japanese money flowing back to Japan. Many moving parts here again. The Nikkei is at record high. What can pr**k the bubble there?
4. Commodities:- Demand may be weak with the global slowdown from the tariffs and the higher USD. There was a recent FOMO rally in Precious Metals, Rare Earth and Uranium Miners but they are correcting now. A strong USD will also not be good for Commodities.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is adding to the world's Liquidity. There's supposedly a lot of money (US$20t?) on the sidelines, waiting to buy on any dips. The US will be ending QT on Dec 1st. Thereafter, if the Feds starts QE again, that would definitely add some liquidity into the system. However, I think that the Feds will be keeping their powder dry for the time being as they need to be able deploy around US$4t at the next crisis.
6. Global Economy:- A mild global recession is probably the base case now. Will it morph into a Global Recession or Depression?
7. Market Sentiment:- With the constant Flip-Flopping, market sentiment has been damaged. Therefore, a 25% discount should probably be applied to any business consideration. Chasing any over-crowded trade at this point in time is probably risky, unless one is very nimble.
8. Earnings:- Outside of the Technology and AI sector, things are not that great. Supply chains are being disrupted and once the full impact of the tariffs hits, demand could be affected. (We are now working through the front-loaded inventories). A 15% discount should probably be applied to all earning projections. Business Confidence has been severely affected and will probably not return for a few years.
9. Trading Strategy:- With so many moving parts and the constant flip-floppings, it's very difficult to trade in this type of market as one can easily get whip-lashed. One could try to day-trade but it's not easy. If one is a long term investor, a 25% discount should probably be applied. A sharp drop in price may present some medium term opportunity but it should be looked at on a case-to-case basis. I'm "cautiously bearish" as we continue to grind higher.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Nov 01: US - 42m people losing their Food Stamps
4. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)
5. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
6. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Will they reduce rates by 25 bps?
7. Dec 31: Window Dressing
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (42% from 39% last week from 35% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 30% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 42% (14 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?
b. Oil, Precious Metals, Rare Earth, USD & Bitcoin, have not proven to be good safe haven
c. CHF and SGD?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$61 from US$62 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US$4013 from US$4138 from US$4213;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Lower; US$48 from US$49 from US$50;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Lower; US$5.11 from US$5.12 from US$4.97;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$109,643 (as of Nov 1, 2025 @ 7.44 AM) from US$110,970 last week from US$106,641 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "35 Fear" from "33 Fear" last week from "27 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6840 from 6792 last week from 6664 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Lower; 25956 from 26166 last week from 25247 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3955 from 3950 from 3840;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1609 from 1613 from 1607:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought BAT
d. Traded Perak Transit
e. Sold 1/6 DNEX
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 1 @ 7.55 AM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 154 from 153 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.22 from 3.25 from 3.26;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7766 from 7.7693 from 7.7679;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.19 from 4.22 from 4.23;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.12 from 7.13;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.72 from 99.04 last week from 98.54 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.08% from 3.99% from 4.01%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.58% from 3.48% from 3.46%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.39 from 97.74 from 97.24;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
The Big Picture (Update)
As there are many uncertainties and moving parts out there, it's time to look at the "Big Picture" again
1. Interest Rates:- The Feds mentioned that they may not reduce interest rates in December. However, things are slowing down in the US. At the same time, there's also about $28t of the National Debt to be refinanced over the next four years. Many moving parts here.
2. USD:- The USD has been slowly appreciating over the past few weeks. There is still no alternative to the USD. However, a mere 2% shift away from US Assets, can easily result in a US$1t outflow.
3. Japan:- The new PM wants to unleash Abenomics 2.0. If that's the case, the JPY will weaken which will lead to higher inflation. A weaker JPY will be good for the Japanese Trading House and the Nikkei 225. However, if inflation rises a lot, the BOJ may be forced to increase interest rates which may result in some Japanese money flowing back to Japan. Many moving parts here again. The Nikkei is at record high. What can pr**k the bubble there?
4. Commodities:- Demand may be weak with the global slowdown from the tariffs and the higher USD. There was a recent FOMO rally in Precious Metals, Rare Earth and Uranium Miners but they are correcting now. A strong USD will also not be good for Commodities.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is adding to the world's Liquidity. There's supposedly a lot of money (US$20t?) on the sidelines, waiting to buy on any dips. The US will be ending QT on Dec 1st. Thereafter, if the Feds starts QE again, that would definitely add some liquidity into the system. However, I think that the Feds will be keeping their powder dry for the time being as they need to be able deploy around US$4t at the next crisis.
6. Global Economy:- A mild global recession is probably the base case now. Will it morph into a Global Recession or Depression?
7. Market Sentiment:- With the constant Flip-Flopping, market sentiment has been damaged. Therefore, a 25% discount should probably be applied to any business consideration. Chasing any over-crowded trade at this point in time is probably risky, unless one is very nimble.
8. Earnings:- Outside of the Technology and AI sector, things are not that great. Supply chains are being disrupted and once the full impact of the tariffs hits, demand could be affected. (We are now working through the front-loaded inventories). A 15% discount should probably be applied to all earning projections. Business Confidence has been severely affected and will probably not return for a few years.
9. Trading Strategy:- With so many moving parts and the constant flip-floppings, it's very difficult to trade in this type of market as one can easily get whip-lashed. One could try to day-trade but it's not easy. If one is a long term investor, a 25% discount should probably be applied. A sharp drop in price may present some medium term opportunity but it should be looked at on a case-to-case basis. I'm "cautiously bearish" as we continue to grind higher.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. Nov 01: US - 42m people losing their Food Stamps
4. Nov 05: US Tariff (Supreme Court)
5. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
6. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Will they reduce rates by 25 bps?
7. Dec 31: Window Dressing
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (42% from 39% last week from 35% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Tariffs;
b. US: 30% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 42% (14 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?
b. Oil, Precious Metals, Rare Earth, USD & Bitcoin, have not proven to be good safe haven
c. CHF and SGD?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$61 from US$62 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US$4013 from US$4138 from US$4213;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Lower; US$48 from US$49 from US$50;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Lower; US$5.11 from US$5.12 from US$4.97;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$109,643 (as of Nov 1, 2025 @ 7.44 AM) from US$110,970 last week from US$106,641 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "35 Fear" from "33 Fear" last week from "27 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6840 from 6792 last week from 6664 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Lower; 25956 from 26166 last week from 25247 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3955 from 3950 from 3840;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1609 from 1613 from 1607:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought BAT
d. Traded Perak Transit
e. Sold 1/6 DNEX
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 1 @ 7.55 AM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 154 from 153 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.22 from 3.25 from 3.26;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7766 from 7.7693 from 7.7679;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.19 from 4.22 from 4.23;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.12 from 7.13;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.72 from 99.04 last week from 98.54 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.08% from 3.99% from 4.01%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.58% from 3.48% from 3.46%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.39 from 97.74 from 97.24;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113063
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Nov 09, 2025 10:06 am
TOL @ Nov 09, 2025
Extreme Fear?
I'm surprised that the CNN Fear & Greed Index is now at 21 (Extreme Fear).
Whenever this index is below 30, it means that the market is oversold and it's normally a good time to buy.
However, this time I'm hesitating as there are many moving parts eg. Supreme Court Tariff Decision, Global Economic Slowdown, Supply Chains Disruption, Elevated Interest Rate, Expensive Tech & AI Valuation, High Global Debts, High Youth Unemployment, US Government Shutdown, Various Wars etc.
In addition, we also had lot of bearish comments this week including:-
1. Various negative comments by the Bank CEOs at the HK Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit
2. Ed Yardeni:-
a. Warned that the S&P could fall 5% from our recent high through December
b. After the S&P 500’s roughly $17 trillion rebound, key market technicals are nearing historic extremes
c. S&P 500 is trading as much as 13% above its 200-day moving average, a wide spread, that traditionally suggests a rally has gotten overextended
3. World Economic Fund:
a. Crypto bubble
b. AI bubble and
c. Debt bubble
4. Various Warning Signs by the "experts":-
a. S&P 500’s Shiller P/E hitting it's highest multiple during the current bull market cycle (which began in October 2022) of 41.20.
b. Buffett Indicator as of October 31 is at 224.7%. It's considered expensive if > 200 (1999)
c. P/S ratio of S&P 500 is 3.4
d. Record margin debt
e. Narrow market breadth
f. Heavy concentration in mega-cap tech stocks like NVDA.
g. Hinderburg Omen
etc.
With so many negative comments this week, it's no wonder that the "CNN Fear & Greed" index is at "21 Extreme Fear"! However, the markets have still not broken down (yet?).
I remained "cautiously bearish" and am looking for opportunities to sell rather than to buy unless it's a "no-brainer conviction buy".
Anyway, I have a habit of catching falling knives so I'm trying to wait a bit longer to buy nowadays.
In times like this, it's good to remind myself of Jim Roger's "words of wisdom":-
"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, 'I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.' No, you don't. You should sit there until you find something”.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: 42m people lost their Food Stamps?
4. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
5. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
6. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Will they reduce rates by 25 bps?
7. Dec 31: Window Dressing
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (42% from 42% last week from 39% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Tariff
b. US: 29% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$60 from US$61 last week from US$62 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US4008 from US$4013 from US$4138;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Hedge Funds are starting to lose money on their gold bet
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Flat; US$48 from US$48 from US$49;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Lower; US$4.96 from US$5.11 from US$5.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$103,679 (as of Nov 8, 2025 @ 6.57 AM) from US$109,643 last week from US$110,970 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. All cryptos gain for 2025 may have been wiped out?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "21 Extreme Fear" from "35 Fear" last week from "33 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Lower; 6729 from 6840 last week from 6792 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26232 from 25956 last week from 26166 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Sold 7515 (Japan Inverse ETF 2x)
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3998 from 3955 from 3950;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1619 from 1609 from 1613:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Perak Transit
d. Sold PPB
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 8 @ 6.45 AM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 153 from 154 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.21 from 3.22 from 3.25;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7790 from 7.7766 from 7.7693;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.18 from 4.19 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 7.12 from 7.11 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.56 from 99.72 last week from 99.04 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.10 % from 4.08% from 3.99%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.56% from 3.58% from 3.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.76 from 97.39 from 97.74;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
Extreme Fear?
I'm surprised that the CNN Fear & Greed Index is now at 21 (Extreme Fear).
Whenever this index is below 30, it means that the market is oversold and it's normally a good time to buy.
However, this time I'm hesitating as there are many moving parts eg. Supreme Court Tariff Decision, Global Economic Slowdown, Supply Chains Disruption, Elevated Interest Rate, Expensive Tech & AI Valuation, High Global Debts, High Youth Unemployment, US Government Shutdown, Various Wars etc.
In addition, we also had lot of bearish comments this week including:-
1. Various negative comments by the Bank CEOs at the HK Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit
2. Ed Yardeni:-
a. Warned that the S&P could fall 5% from our recent high through December
b. After the S&P 500’s roughly $17 trillion rebound, key market technicals are nearing historic extremes
c. S&P 500 is trading as much as 13% above its 200-day moving average, a wide spread, that traditionally suggests a rally has gotten overextended
3. World Economic Fund:
a. Crypto bubble
b. AI bubble and
c. Debt bubble
4. Various Warning Signs by the "experts":-
a. S&P 500’s Shiller P/E hitting it's highest multiple during the current bull market cycle (which began in October 2022) of 41.20.
b. Buffett Indicator as of October 31 is at 224.7%. It's considered expensive if > 200 (1999)
c. P/S ratio of S&P 500 is 3.4
d. Record margin debt
e. Narrow market breadth
f. Heavy concentration in mega-cap tech stocks like NVDA.
g. Hinderburg Omen
etc.
With so many negative comments this week, it's no wonder that the "CNN Fear & Greed" index is at "21 Extreme Fear"! However, the markets have still not broken down (yet?).
I remained "cautiously bearish" and am looking for opportunities to sell rather than to buy unless it's a "no-brainer conviction buy".
Anyway, I have a habit of catching falling knives so I'm trying to wait a bit longer to buy nowadays.
In times like this, it's good to remind myself of Jim Roger's "words of wisdom":-
"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, 'I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.' No, you don't. You should sit there until you find something”.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: 42m people lost their Food Stamps?
4. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
5. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending
6. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Will they reduce rates by 25 bps?
7. Dec 31: Window Dressing
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat (42% from 42% last week from 39% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 28% (8 Counters); Tariff
b. US: 29% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$60 from US$61 last week from US$62 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US4008 from US$4013 from US$4138;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Hedge Funds are starting to lose money on their gold bet
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Flat; US$48 from US$48 from US$49;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Lower; US$4.96 from US$5.11 from US$5.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$103,679 (as of Nov 8, 2025 @ 6.57 AM) from US$109,643 last week from US$110,970 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. All cryptos gain for 2025 may have been wiped out?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "21 Extreme Fear" from "35 Fear" last week from "33 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Lower; 6729 from 6840 last week from 6792 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26232 from 25956 last week from 26166 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Sold 7515 (Japan Inverse ETF 2x)
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3998 from 3955 from 3950;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1619 from 1609 from 1613:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Perak Transit
d. Sold PPB
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 8 @ 6.45 AM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 153 from 154 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.21 from 3.22 from 3.25;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7790 from 7.7766 from 7.7693;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.18 from 4.19 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 7.12 from 7.11 from 7.12;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.56 from 99.72 last week from 99.04 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.10 % from 4.08% from 3.99%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.56% from 3.58% from 3.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.76 from 97.39 from 97.74;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113063
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Nov 16, 2025 9:05 am
TOL @ Nov 16, 2025
Extreme Fear (Week Two)
The CNN Greed & Fear Index remains at Extreme Fear (22) and the market has not gone anywhere for the past week. However, it has not crashed either.
In the meantime, only 26% of the stocks in the S&P 500, managed to outperformed the index over the last three months. This is one of the worst market breadth readings since 2020.
The "FOMO Crowd" is still hoping for some more good news from TACO despite getting the following recently:-
1. End of the government shutdown
2. US$2000 tariff dividend
3. 50 year mortgage
4. Removal of tariffs on coffee, beef & various fruits
etc.
Meanwhile, the AI & Tech counters are not crashing despite their overvaluation while the global economy is a slow-motion train wreck.
It's a very frustrating situation for the hedge funds and full-time traders nowadays as they need to wait very patiently for their ideas to materialise, not to mentioned the occasional tweet that can derail their position.
The following are my random thoughts on the markets:-
1. US: Overvalued; Still waiting patiently with Warren Buffett and Michael Burry, for the deep correction. TACO will continue to work overtime, to keep the market elevated. "You can fool some of the people, some of the time but not all the people, all the time".
2. HK - less overvalued than the US but it has also gone up a lot. The "National Team" is probably on standby to buy on any deep correction. Meanwhile, are the army of Retail Investors getting restless?
3. Commodities - I'm still waiting for Gold, Cryptos, Silver, Uranium, Copper, Rare Earth etc., to correct further before I start to seriously look at them. I think they have run up too much and too fast.
I remained "cautiously bearish". When buying nowadays, I'm always hesitating. When selling nowadays, I do not hesitate anymore. My exposure to Equities is still about 40% of my Liquid Assets. If the "Big One" is coming, I should try to raise some Cash whenever I can.
I still have some legacy positions and it's not so easy to take big losses on those positions. Ideally, my Stop Losses should be at 7% and never over a weekend. Maximum Stop Losses should be 25% or the expiry of three months. Easier said than done.
Meanwhile, I'm aware that there's about US$15t of Cash sitting on the sidelines, waiting and waiting, to buy on any steep dips. Therefore, I should not be too bearish at this point in time. There's no fear in the eyes of the players yet. They think that this slow-motion train wreck, will take a few more years to materialize.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
4. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending; Will they flip to QE again?
5. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Does a 50 bps cut excite you?
6. Dec 31: Window Dressing
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (40% from 42% last week from 42% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 31% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 39% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$60 from US$60 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4086 from US4008 from US$4013;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$50 from US$48 from US$48;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.05 from US$4.96 from US$5.11;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$97,106 (as of 4.12 PM on Nov 14, 2025) from 103,679 last week from US$109,643 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "22 Extreme Fear" from "21 Extreme Fear" last week from "35 Fear" last week two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6734 from 6729 last week from 6840 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26589 from 26232 last week from 25956 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3990 from 3998 from 3955;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1625 from 1619 from 1609:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold T7 Global
d. Sold Zetrix
e. Sold BAT
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Nov 14 @ 4.07 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 155 from 153 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.18 from 3.21 from 3.22;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7707 from 7.7790 from 7.7766;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.13 from 4.18 from 4.19;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.10 from 7.12 from 7.11;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 99.27 from 99.56 last week from 99.72 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.15% from 4.10 % last week from 4.08% two weeks ago;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.61% from 3.56% from 3.58%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.63 from 96.76 from 97.39;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
Extreme Fear (Week Two)
The CNN Greed & Fear Index remains at Extreme Fear (22) and the market has not gone anywhere for the past week. However, it has not crashed either.
In the meantime, only 26% of the stocks in the S&P 500, managed to outperformed the index over the last three months. This is one of the worst market breadth readings since 2020.
The "FOMO Crowd" is still hoping for some more good news from TACO despite getting the following recently:-
1. End of the government shutdown
2. US$2000 tariff dividend
3. 50 year mortgage
4. Removal of tariffs on coffee, beef & various fruits
etc.
Meanwhile, the AI & Tech counters are not crashing despite their overvaluation while the global economy is a slow-motion train wreck.
It's a very frustrating situation for the hedge funds and full-time traders nowadays as they need to wait very patiently for their ideas to materialise, not to mentioned the occasional tweet that can derail their position.
The following are my random thoughts on the markets:-
1. US: Overvalued; Still waiting patiently with Warren Buffett and Michael Burry, for the deep correction. TACO will continue to work overtime, to keep the market elevated. "You can fool some of the people, some of the time but not all the people, all the time".
2. HK - less overvalued than the US but it has also gone up a lot. The "National Team" is probably on standby to buy on any deep correction. Meanwhile, are the army of Retail Investors getting restless?
3. Commodities - I'm still waiting for Gold, Cryptos, Silver, Uranium, Copper, Rare Earth etc., to correct further before I start to seriously look at them. I think they have run up too much and too fast.
I remained "cautiously bearish". When buying nowadays, I'm always hesitating. When selling nowadays, I do not hesitate anymore. My exposure to Equities is still about 40% of my Liquid Assets. If the "Big One" is coming, I should try to raise some Cash whenever I can.
I still have some legacy positions and it's not so easy to take big losses on those positions. Ideally, my Stop Losses should be at 7% and never over a weekend. Maximum Stop Losses should be 25% or the expiry of three months. Easier said than done.
Meanwhile, I'm aware that there's about US$15t of Cash sitting on the sidelines, waiting and waiting, to buy on any steep dips. Therefore, I should not be too bearish at this point in time. There's no fear in the eyes of the players yet. They think that this slow-motion train wreck, will take a few more years to materialize.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs: Semiconductors; Drugs; 100% China etc.
2. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
3. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
4. Dec 01: US: Quantitative Tightening (QT) ending; Will they flip to QE again?
5. Dec 10: US - FOMC meeting; Does a 50 bps cut excite you?
6. Dec 31: Window Dressing
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (40% from 42% last week from 42% two weeks ago of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 30% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 31% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 39% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$60 from US$60 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4086 from US4008 from US$4013;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4381
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$50 from US$48 from US$48;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.05 from US$4.96 from US$5.11;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$97,106 (as of 4.12 PM on Nov 14, 2025) from 103,679 last week from US$109,643 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "22 Extreme Fear" from "21 Extreme Fear" last week from "35 Fear" last week two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6734 from 6729 last week from 6840 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6900; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26589 from 26232 last week from 25956 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 3990 from 3998 from 3955;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1625 from 1619 from 1609:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold T7 Global
d. Sold Zetrix
e. Sold BAT
Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Nov 14 @ 4.07 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 155 from 153 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.18 from 3.21 from 3.22;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7707 from 7.7790 from 7.7766;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.13 from 4.18 from 4.19;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.10 from 7.12 from 7.11;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 99.27 from 99.56 last week from 99.72 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.15% from 4.10 % last week from 4.08% two weeks ago;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.61% from 3.56% from 3.58%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 96.63 from 96.76 from 97.39;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
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