Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ May 11, 2025

storm.jpg

Calm Between Storms?

The markets have recovered over the past few weeks and I think that it is a good selling opportunity before the next storm.

The Administration is continuously flip-floping here and there. Not sure whether it's the onset of Dementia. They have no more credibility and all the Fund Managers and Business Executives, cant plan for the long term now.

My base case is that there will be a global slowdown, weaker stock-markets, bearish sentiments and the continous selling of US Assets over the next four years.

That does not mean that you cannot trade the markets especially when there's a Special Situation but it means that you will not have much tailwind behind you anymore.

The following are some comments from Money Morning on the current situation:-

Here’s what we’re facing as we head into the summer:
1. Tariffs and Trade Tensions
2. Uncertainty at the Feds
3. Geopolitical Landmines
4. Tax and Fiscal Policy Gridlock

Bottom Line:
1. Prepare but Don’t Panic
2. Protect Your Portfolio from the Summer Swoon
a. Control Losses.
b. Hedge The Portfolio

While I'm preparing for the storm, I need to also remind myself to be not too pessimistic. The Mid-Term Elections will be in Nov 2026 and the Administration do have an incentive to ensure that things do not stay South for too long.

That means that things should be better for the markets about 6 months before the Midterm Elections ie. from April 2026.

That also means that hunkering down for the rest of the year maybe the right thing to do, while the Trade Agreements get signed over the next few months.

Meanwhile, if the market crashes about 1/3, I would seriously consider trading it again. If not, I would probably be hunkering down unless I see a Special Situation.

I have reduced my exposure to Equities to around 32% now, from about 55% not too long ago. The number of counters in my portfolio has also been reduced to about 28 from about 48 counters a few months ago. My goal is to bring it down further to about a 20% exposure to Equities and only 15 counters ( 5 from HK, Malaysia and US each).

I'm also constantly trying to see where the safe havens would be but this time, I cant seemed to find any. Gold and Bitcoin is quite high now and US Assets are being sold. Maybe buying some Inverse ETFs and Put Warrants is the way to go this time.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (33% from 35% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 34% (10 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 29% (8 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 36% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 10, 2025 @ 6.50 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$61 from US$58 last week from US$63 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3344 from US$3257 from US$3298;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will "Used Gold" supply be more than Central Banks demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$33 from US$32 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.65 from US$4.70 from US$4.84;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$70 from US$69 from US$67;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$102,827 from US$96,681 last week from US$94,587 two weeks ago @ 6.56 PM on May 10, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "62 Greed" from "43 Fear" last week from "35 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5660 from 5687 last week from 5525 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 4980; 4830; 4100; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5750; 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Fwd PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Bought Chagee
j. Sold Nvidia

2. HK Equities - Higher; 22868 from 22481 from 21980;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Sold Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3342 from 3287 from 3295;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1542 from 1509 from 1499:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Natgate


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 10 @ 6.57 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 145 from 145 last week from 143 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.31 from 3.28 from 3.33;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.13 from 1.13 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7790 from 7.7555 from 7.7585;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.29 from 4.28 from 4.37;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.31;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.24 from 7.27 from 7.29;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.42 from 99.85 last week from 99.59 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.38% from 4.31% last week from 4.24% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.90% from 3.83% from 3.76%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 94.55 from 94.57 last week from 94.30 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Flat; 78.55 from 78.54 from 78.30;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ May 18, 2025

Bear Trap.jpg

Bear Trap? Really?

The markets have recovered most of their losses from April and some "experts" are now saying that this is a "Bear Trap".

(A Bear trap indicate a possible onset of a downturn in the market. But like the name indicates, it is a trap. The market instead breaks into steady growth after a short pause).

As for myself, I'm a bit concerned, that the "CNN Fear Greed Index" has quickly flipped from "Extreme Fear" to "Greed", over the past few weeks when fundamentally, nothing has really changed. (That hero fireman was actually the aronist)

I'm also concerned that the VIX is behaving as if everything is suddenly "normal" again.

Just because there's now a "Trade Truce', it does not mean that the "antics" will not continue again in the near future.

Just because there's now an intermission, it does not mean that the "circus" will not continue later.

Just because there's now some calm, it does not mean that the storm will not reappear again.

Just because the Clown is travelling and pre-occupied with his trip, it does not mean that he will not be sending out another rude social media message which may upset the markets.

Do you really think that no damage has been done to the Global Economy, Individual Company Earnings and Market Sentiment?

Do you really think that the Fund Managers and Business Leaders, are now suddenly going to be investing for the future? I think that most of them would be using this period of complacency, to hunker down and to prepare for the coming "slow times".

This does not mean that there's no trading opportunity. However, one has to be really sharp and nimble, if one wants to trade in this type of market.

BTW, at my age now, "preservation of capital" is of utmost importance. I don't have another 20 years to wait if my trade is wrong. Not do I have a stable income now to cushion any bad trades. Hence, my trading activities have reduced tremendously.

In the past, if I spot a trading opportunity, I would probably jump at it without hesitation. Nowadays, I tend to hesitate and would prefer to not make that trade. This also means that I have missed some good trading opportunities, Going forward, I would need to refine my trading tactics, maybe by having smaller position.

As for next week, it would be the "same old, same old". The rude name calling by the clowns, would probably continue. The hollow bragging would also probably continue. (Where are the 200 deals that tremendous progress have being made?).

Under such circumstances, one must be really brave or stupid (I'm starting to sound like the clown), to be investing, specualting and trading, in this type of markets.

Finally, I should remind myself that the greatest investor of our lifetime is sitting on US$348b of Cash. If he can patiently sit on Cash, why cant I also do the same?

Larry Fink also mentioned that about US$21 trillion is also sitting on the sidelines.
So there's a lot of people who are also hunkering down. That is also a contrarian indicator and any sharp steep dips could be "V" shaped.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (34% from 33% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 35% (9 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 30% (9 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 35% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 17, 2025 @ 6.40 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$62 from US$61 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3187 from US$3344 from US$3257;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will "Used Gold" supply be more than Central Banks demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$32 from US$33 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.59 from US$4.65 from US$4.70;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$72 from US$70 from US$69;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$103,450 from US$102,827 last week from US$96,681 two weeks ago @ 6.45 AM on May 17, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "71 Greed" to "62 Greed" next week from "43 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5660 from 5687 last week from 5525 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Fwd PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Sold 1/3 Chagee

2. HK Equities - Higher; 23345 from 22868 from 22481;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought Alibaba
e. Added to Vitasoy
f. Sold JD
g. Sold Sunny Optical

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3367 from 3342 from 3287;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1572 from 1542 from 1509:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/2 T7 Global


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 16 @ 3.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 145 from 145 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.30 from 3.31 from 3.28;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.64 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.12 from 1.13 from 1.13;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8127 from 7.7790 from 7.7555;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.27 from 4.29 from 4.28;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.20 from 7.24 from 7.27;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 100.59 from 100.42 last week from 99.85 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.48% from 4.38% last week from 4.31% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.00 % from 3.90% from 3.83%;

Interest Rates:-

a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.74 from 94.55 last week from 94.57 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.42 from 78.55 from 78.54;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ May 25, 2025

Sell In May.jpg

Sell in May & Go Away (For Four Years?)

The markets have recovered most of it's losses from April and I think that this is now a "Selling Opportunity".

It's not all the time that you get a second chance to sell.

In previous years, the traders would sell in May before they go on their Summer Holidays. (BTW Memorial Day this coming Monday, marks the beginning of Summer).

And if the Traders, Investors & Speculators, are really selling this year before their Summer holidays, I have a feeling that a big chunk of those money, wont be returning to the market for a while, due to the constant flip-flopping.

Personally, I would probably not be trading much going forward unless there's a deep crash.

Even then, I will be taking my time to only buy "quality companies with a wide moat", that can withstand four more years of "chaos".

But do you really know what is a "quality company with a wide moat" in this type of markets?

1, Isn't AAPL a 'Blue Chip with a Wide Moat"? And AAPL suddenly finds itself with a 25% tariff on non-US made phones although everyone believes that the 25% wont stick having seen the history of the constant flip-flopping.

2. Isn't NVDA a "Blue Chip with a Wide Moat"? And suddenly, they cant export their second grade chips to China and has to take a US$5.5b charge.

3. Isn't Walmart a "Blue Chip with a Wide Moat'? And suddenly, their low margin imported goods would now cost more. To add salt to the injury, they have also been told to "eat the tariffs".

Anyway, I just read that Jim Rogers has sold all his Equities and he's now completely in Cash, Gold and Silver.

As for myself, I'm still at 32% exposure to Equities with 27 counters. I'm trying my best to reduce it to about 20% and 15 counters but it's not that easy, especially when you have some unrealized losses on some legacy positions.

If the opportunity presents itself, I would like to soon do the following:-
1. Buy some Gold and Silver over the next two weeks
2. Continue selling down my Equities in US, HK and Malaysia
3. Buy some UVXY to hedge my existing positions

At the same time, I need to remind myself that I should not be too bearish as the Administration do have an incentive to see the markets go up.

So if the markets are too weak, they will then say something nice, to push up the market. However, you can only cry wolf so many times before the people get sick off your "stupid jokes".

Finally, over the past few decades, I have never liked Bonds, However, that 4% on that 5 Year Bond, is probably a good place to hunker down until the "circus" has left town.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (32% from 34% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market

b. HK: 32% (8 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 31% (9 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 37% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 24, 2025 @ 6.15 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$61 from US$62 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3366 from US$3187 from US$3344;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will "Used Gold" supply be more than Central Banks demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$33 from US$32 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.84 from US$4.59 from US$4.65;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$72 from US$72 from US$70;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$108,430 from US$103,450 last week from US$102,827 two weeks ago @ 6.20 AM on May 24, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "64 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week to "62 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5803 from 5660 last week from 5687 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Fwd PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Sold 1/2 Chagee

2. HK Equities - Higher; 23601 from 23345 from 22868;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Sold China Unicom

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3348 from 3367 from 3342;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1535 from 1572 from 1542:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on May 23 @ 9.55 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 143 from 145 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.29 from 3.30 from 3.31;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.13 from 1.12 from 1.13;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8317 from 7.8127 from 7.7790;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.23 from 4.27 from 4.29;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.29 from 1.30 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.18 from 7.20 from 7.24;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 99.45 from 100.59 last week from 100.42 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.52% from 4.48% last week from 4.38% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.99% from 4.00 % from 3.90%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.12 from 95.74 last week from 94.55 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.95 from 79.42 from 78.55;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jun 01, 2025

Put.png

The TACO & Fed Put

The markets have not gone anywhere for the past week.

Maybe it's because the participants (including me) do not know what to make out of all the issues and outbursts.

Hence, the participants have been hunkering down and not taking much risk, in either direction.

Having said that, I need to remind myself to be not too bearish as we do have the TACO and Fed Puts:-
1. TACO - Trump Will Always Chicken Out
2. Fed Put - The Feds will support the markets if prices fall a lot

Anyway, this is now a stock picker's market. Hence, one is always looking for a counter that is stable, predictable, not affected much by the tariffs, has a wide moat, trading at a fair price, strong sponsorship etc.

At the same time, the brightest and smartest minds, are also looking to invest in such companies.

Therefore, if one happened to stumble upon such a company, one must have the conviction to sit on it while the rest of the market catches up.

One of my mistakes over the years, is that I always take small profits and do not sit on a company long enough, to realize it's full price potential.

For next week, we will have the new money from the new month. Therefore, the markets could spike up a bit next week. Having said that, the sentiment is so bad now that the participants would probably be selling into any spike in the markets.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (34% from 32% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (8 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 34% (10 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 34% (10 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 24, 2025 @ 6.15 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$61 from US$61 last week from US$62 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$3330 from US$3366 from US$3187;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will the sale of "Used Gold" be more than Central Banks demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$33 from US$33 from US$32;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 100; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.70 from US$4.84 from US$4.59;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$72 from US$72 from US$72;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$105,307 from US$108,430 last week from US$103,450 two weeks ago @ 4.55 PM on May 30, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "62 Greed" from "64 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5912 from 5803 last week from 5660 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 21; Fwd PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Bought GLD
j. Bought UVXY

2. HK Equities - Lower; 23289 from 23601 from 23345;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Added to Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3347 from 3348 from 3367;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1514 from 1535 from 1572:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 30 @ 3.36 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 144 from 143 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.30 from 3.29 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.13 from 1.13 from 1.12;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8417 from 7.8317 from 7.8127;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.25 from 4.23 from 4.27;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.30;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.20 from 7.18 from 7.20;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.55 from 99.45 last week from 100.59 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.40 % from 4.52% last week from 4.48% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.90% from 3.99% from 4.00%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.91 from 95.12 last week from 95.74 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.57 from 78.95 from 79.42;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Jun 08, 2025

contrarian-trading-1.jpg

Is Everyone A Contrarian Now?

The contrarian trade over the past few weeks, was to be long because of the two Puts ie. TACO and Fed.

Now that the markets have recovered and almost everyone thinks that they are a contrarian, do you "Buy, Sell or Hold" going forward?

Intuitively, I think that this is a "Selling Opportunity" and I have been trying to pare down my exposure to Equities as much as I can. At the same time, I have also been trying to increase my hedges eg. Gold, Silver, Inverse ETF and Volatility ETF.

The fundamentals have not changed over the past few weeks:-
1. The Outbursts and Surprises from the Administration are still there and getting more frequent
2. The Ukraine War has not ended. Instead, it's escalating.
3. The Gaza War has not ended. Instead, it may spread to Iran.
4. The Tariffs are still there although they may closed at around 15%
5. The bromance has ended with Musk. So what "dark secrets" will be coming out and will be the retaliation?
6. Powell is still being called Names and rates will not be dropping soon
7. Stagflation is still there on the horizon
8. Most businesses will still be not investing over the next 4 years
9. The US$27t of US Treasuries will still be maturing soon
10. The Feds can still only QE up to US$4t without breaking things

At the same time, the "bulls" are citing the following for the continuation of the rally:-
1. The coming tax reduction in the "BBB"
2. The coming relaxation of regulations
3. The coming end to tariff wars
4. The coming end of the Ukraine War
5. The coming end of Hamas in Gaza
6. The coming truce with Musk
7. The coming replacement of Powell
8. The coming systematic roll-over of maturing US Treasuries thru some QE

So going forward, will you be "Buying, Selling or Holding"?


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (36% from 34% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (8 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 38% (12 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 30% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of June 07, 2025 @ 8.15 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$65 from US$61 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3347 from US$3330 from US$3366;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will the sale of "Used Gold" be more than Central Banks' demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$36 from US$33 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 100; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.85 from US$4.70 from US$4.84;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$71 from US$72 from US$72;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$103,129 from US$105,307 last week from US$108,430 two weeks ago @ 3.36 PM on Jun 06, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "63 Greed" from "62 Greed" last week from "64 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6000 from 5912 last week from 5803 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5700; 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200; 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Fwd PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Bought SLV (Silver ETF)
j. Traded Chagee (CHA)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 23822 from 23289 from 23601;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat; 3347 from 3348 from 3367;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1514 from 1535 from 1572:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold IJM


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 06 @ 3.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 144 from 144 last week from 143 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.29 from 3.30 from 3.29;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.14 from 1.13 from 1.13;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8465 from 7.8417 from 7.8317;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.23 from 4.25 from 4.23;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.18 from 7.20 from 7.18;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.89 from 99.55 last week from 99.45 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.51% from 4.40 % last week from 4.52% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.04% from 3.90% from 3.99%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.62 from 95.91 last week from 95.12 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.30 from 79.57 from 78.95;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Jun 15, 2025

riskassess.jpeg

Risks Out There

As we are now facing a number of risks out there, it may be timely to see whether we can mitigate some of them.

1. The frequent Outbursts and Surprises from the Administration
Comment: Could be a "Buying Opportunity"; TACO

2. The Ukraine War has not ended. Instead, it's escalating.
Comment: Even if it turns nuclear, it could still be only a Regional European issue

3. The Gaza War has spread to Iran.
Comment: Oil would probably be hitting resistance as there's an abundance of supply. Even if it turns nuclear, it could still be only a Regional Middle East issue

4. Trump threatened to unilaterally impose tariffs
Comment: July 8th Deadline. The tariffs would probably be settled at about 15% else the US economy and US Inflation will be affected; TACO

5. The bromance has ended with Musk
Comment: What "dark secrets" do they have on each other? Musk blinked first and has apologized. It would be interesting to see whether Musk will start a new party to contest in the Mid-Term Elections in Nov 2026.

6. "Numbskull" Powell will likely be not reducing rates rates for the time being
Comment: New nickname for Powell. Anyway, Powell is actually only one of twelve votes to decide on rates. With the coming tariffs and rising Oil prices now, it will be very hard to reduce rates unless there's a rapid slowdown in the US economy.

7. Stagflation is still there on the horizon
Comment: The Tariffs, ICE protests, Escalating Ukraine War, Iran War etc has increased the probability of a Stagflation and a Recession

8. Most businesses will not be investing over the next 4 years
Comment: Unless there's a new leader or if the Republicans lose control of the Congress and the Senate at the Mid-term Elections in November 2026

9. The US$27t of US Treasuries will be maturing soon
Comment: The "Genius Act" will ensure that the Stablecoins Issuers will buy short-term US Treasuries, estimated to be around US$2t by 2028

10. The Feds can only QE up to US$4t without breaking things
Comment: With the passage of the "Genius Act", there will be less pressure on the Feds to QE unless rates spiked furiously

We have the following next week:-
1. G7 (Canada) - Jun 15 to 17; Non-Event
2. FOMC Meeting - Jun 17 & 18; Non-Event
3. Continuation of Ukraine War
4. Continuation of Iran War

Finally, I have been trying to protect my portfolio by buying the following:-
1. UVXY (Volatility ETF)
2. SQQQ (Inverse 3x Nasdaq ETF)
3. 7552 ( Inverse 2x Hang Seng Tech ETF)
4. 7551 (Inverse 2x Nikkei ETF)
5. GKD (Gold ETF)
6. SLV (Silver ETF)
The above are for the short term only until some of the "Risks Out There" have been mitigated.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (35% from 36% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 34% (9 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 38% (12 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 28% (8 Counters); Special Situations

Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of June 07, 2025 @ 8.15 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$74 from US$65 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3453 from US$3347 from US$3330;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will the sale of "Used Gold" be more than Central Banks' demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$36 from US$36 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 100; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.81 from US$4.85 from US$4.70;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$70 from US$71 from US$72;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$104,742 from US$103,129 last week from US$105,307 two weeks ago @ 3.45 PM on Jun 13, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "60 Greed" from "63 Greed" last week from "62 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5977 from 6000 last week from 5912 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5700; 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200; 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Traded UVXY (Volatility ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 23822 from 23289 from 23601;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought 7552 (Inverse Tech 2x)
e. Bought 7551 (Inverse Nikkei 2x)
f. Traded Sino Biopharma
g. Traded Pop Mart

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3377 from 3347 from 3348;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1518 from 1535 from 1572:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Genting Malaysia


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 14 @ 10.06 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 144 from 144 last week from 144 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.31 from 3.29 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.15 from 1.14 from 1.13;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8497 from 7.8465 from 7.8417;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.25 from 4.23 from 4.25;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.18 from 7.18 from 7.18;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 98.14 from 98.89 last week from 99.55 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices (?)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.41% from 4.51% last week from 4.40% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.95% from 4.04% from 3.90%;

Interest Rates:-

a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.70 from 95.62 last week from 95.91 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.36 from 79.30 from 79.57;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Jun 22, 2025

window-dressing.jpg

1H Window Dressing?

The markets have been complacent and behaving better than expected over the past two weeks.

The only reason that I can come up with, is that it's Window Dressing Season.

If that's the case then the markets should be weak from July.

In the meantime, we will have to watch what's happening in:-
1. Ukraine
2. Iran and
3. The Tariff situation

My position has not really changed over the past few weeks:-
1. I now only trade extremes, both Oversold or Overbought situations
2. My trading activities have dwindled down a lot
3. I'm starting to look for Dividend stocks that can last the next four years
4. I will continue to keep a higher level of Cash until the next Crash
5. I'm now demanding a higher margin of safety for all my trades
6. I will continue to hedge my positions due to the current situation.

However, I need to also remind myself to be not too bearish as there are about US$30t of Cash on the sidelines.

For next week, It would probably be the "same old, same old". Since the US has now decided to use their "bunker bombs", it would be interesting to see what Iran can do. The consensus is that Iran is now too weak to retaliate.

I dont see things spiraling from here unless China and Russia wants to join the party (a very low probability). Even if Iran decides to attack any of the US Assets in the Middle East, the situation is still probably contained.

A bigger risk could still be the tariff situation but everyone is now expecting the tariff rates to be sealed at around 15%. Anything higher than that would lead to Stagflation and possibly, a US Recession.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 35% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 41% (10 Counters); ADR Delisting?
c. US: 34% (12 Counters); Recession?
d. Malaysia: 25% (8 Counters); Special Situations; Banks Dividends;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of June 07, 2025 @ 8.15 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$74 from US$74 last week from US$65 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$3386 from US$3453 from US$3347;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will the sale of "Used Gold" be more than Central Banks' demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$36 from US$36 from US$36;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.83 from US$4.81 from US$4.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$76 from US$70 from US$71;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$103,149 from US$104,742 last week from US$103,129 two weeks ago @ 7.12 AM on Jun 21, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "55 Neutral" from "60 Greed" last week from "63 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5968 from 5977 last week from 6000 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5700; 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200; 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 20,000; Support: 18200, 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower; 23530 from 23822 from 23289;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought Pop Mart
e. Sold 7552 (Inverse Tech 2x)


3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3360 from 3377 from 3347;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1503 from 1518 from 1535:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Maybank


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 20 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 145 from 144 last week from 144 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.31 from 3.31 from 3.29;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted most of my SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.15 from 1.15 from 1.14;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8498 from 7.8497 from 7.8465;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.26 from 4.25 from 4.23;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.18 from 7.18 from 7.18;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.68 from 98.14 last week from 98.89 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.38% from 4.41% last week from 4.51% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.90% from 3.95% from 4.04%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.23 from 95.70 last week from 95.62 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.80 from 79.36 from 79.30;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.