Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 02, 2025

Train Wreck.jpg

Slow-Moving Train Wreck?

The markets have been volatile recently and I'm starting to think that this could be a slow-moving train wreck.

If that is the case, my current exposure to Equities of 48%, is a bit too high.

Anyway, the following are my current feelings of the markets;-

1. US:- The "NVDA Sell-Off" is a bit overdone. I dont see the US market crashing for the time being. When the "M" or "Triple Top" forms on the chart, then I would be a bit more careful. In the meantime, I have bought some NVDA and AVGO while sold some of my hedges, UVXY and SBIT.

2. HK:- The China Tech are overbought and the HK market maybe starting to crack. Earnings Season is coming soon and the NPC Meeting on March 5th may be a Non-Event. I need to also remind myself to be not too eager to replenish my HK inventory anfd that this is now a short-term "Hit & Run" market.

3. Malaysia:- I replenished some of my Malaysian inventory but I think that they could be "dead money" for a few weeks. The foreign money are still leaving. The current two "hot sectors" are Banks and Plantations but I dont feel like chasing these two sectors at the current prices.

About two weeks ago, I commented that the markets were a bit complacent. In the meantime, it's starting to get volatile. However, I dont see it crashing for the time being eventhough we have the following:-
1. Trump-Zelensky Shouting Match
2. NVDA's "No Big Deal" Results
3. Additional Tariffs
4. Deep Seek's Risk
5. Alibaba's US$50b AI Capex
etc.

As mentioned, I will only start to worry, if I start to see the "M" or "Triple-Tops" forming on the charts. This would normally take a few weeks. However, with an unpredictable Trump Administration, the timing to see the "M" or "Triple-Tops" forming could be considerably shortened. Hence, there's a need to raise some Cash.

At the same time, the markets are very volatile and present some tempting trading opportunities. That's the reason why my exposure to Equities has leaped from 37% two weeks ago to about 48% now while I'm feeling uneasy about the markets.

For next week, we will have the following:-
1. New Money From The New Month
2. Mar 4 & 5: China's NPC; Probably a Non-Event; Hopefully, it does not become a catalyst for the HK market to meltdown as the HK market is quite euphoric and a "M" maybe forming now.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (48% from 40% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 42% (14 Counters); Trading Market; Overbought?
c. US: 24% (11 Counters); Oversold Counters @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 34% (18 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Mar 01, 25 @ 11.35 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$70 from US$72 last week from US$71 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 375m of 600m barrels left; Sold 180m in 2022; Replenishing 6m Oct 1 2024; Trump to replenish SPR?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$2862 from US$2945 last week from US$2960 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3000;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$31 from US$33 from US$34;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Flat. US$4.56 from US$4.57 from US$4.81;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$66 from US$65 from US$68;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$85,022 from US$98,402 last week from US$96,776 two weeks ago @ 4.08 PM on March 01, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF) to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "20 Extreme Fear" from "35 Fear" last week from "44 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5955 from 6013 last week from 6115 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Bought NVDA
j. Bought AVGO
k. Sold SBIT (2x Inverse Bitcoin)
l. Sold UVXY (Volatility)

2. HK Equities - Lower; 22,941 from 23,478 from 22,620;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23800; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Traded Trip
e. Traded Meituan
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded JD
h. Traded CICC
i. Traded ASMPT

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3321 from 3379 from 3347;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1575 from 1591 from 1592:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Genting Bhd
c. Bought Genting Malaysia
d. Bought Kossan
e. Bought Hartalega
f. Bought Supermax
g. Bought Gamuda
h. Bought Tenaga
g. Bought Top Glove
h. Added to PUC


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 03 @ 11.35PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 151 from 158 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.30 from 3.31 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.62 from 0.64 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.04 from 1.05 from 1.05;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7786 from 7.7731 from 7.7855;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.46 from 4.63 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.28 from 7.25 from 7.29;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 107.56 from 106.52 last week from 107.10 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.20% from 4.49% last week from 4.48% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.99% from 4.26% from 4.26%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.12 from 96.77 last week from 96.56 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 80.13 from 79.80 from 79.67;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1112 from 904 from 776; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

b]TOL @ Mar 09, 2025[/b]

Cash.jpg

Raising Cash?

As mentioned last week, the markets feels like a slow-moving train wreck and I've been trying to reduce my exposure to Equities.

Anyway, the following are my comments on the various markets this week:-

1. US:-
a. The CNN Fear Greed Index is at 20 (Extreme Fear); Oversold
b. The AAII Survey shows 60% of the Investors are Bearish; (Contrarian Buy)
c. Trump's habit of changing his position so often, is no longer funny.
d. The US economy is getting weaker by the day and it will not surprise me if the Feds cuts interest rates sooner than expected. Perhaps in March?
e. The USD is weakening and I have been converting some of my USD and HKD
d. I dont intend to buy a lot more US Equities from here eventhough the CNN Fear Greed Index is at Oversold and the AAII Survey is at 60% bearish

HK:-
1. The HK market has risen about 5600 points over the past 7 weeks
2. I think that it's now overbought and I have sold whatever I can
3. It's so funny to see people around me now getting excited about the HK market when I cant get them to buy two months back
4. IMHO, the time to buy was 2 months ago, not now, after it has risen 5600 points
5. If there's a 50% retracement ie. 2800 points, I may then be interested in the HK market again
6. In the meantime, you have the Tariffs, ADR delistings, Weak Economy, Slow Growth, High Debt Levels etc to worry about

Malaysia:-
1. I cannot see any sector that I like except for the Banks
2. However, if the foreigners are continuing their selling, the banks would also be sold down
3. I thought that the weak MYR would be good for the Glove companies but I'm starting to have second thoughts after their recent price action.
4. I will continue to sell whatever Malaysian Equities that I have

Going forward, I will probably be reducing my trading activities. It's probably time to take a "trading break" and to hunker down for a few weeks.

Complacency seems to have slipped into the markets while economic conditions are worsening daily with a very unpredictable Trump Administration. Maybe there's now a new generation of "investors" who have not seen a Crash before.

Anyway, the Trump Bump is now gone.

If you are a Business Person, you will certainly not be investing much for the future as you could hardly see a week ahead.

If you a Fund Manager, you will certainly be erring on the side of caution.

Under such a scenario, why would the markets be going up?


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (43% from 48% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 35%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 26% (8 from 14 Counters); Overbought?
c. US: 26% (10 from 11 Counters); Oversold Counters; Time Difference
d. Malaysia: 48% (17 from 18 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Mar 01, 25 @ 11.35 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$67 from US$70 last week from US$72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$2914 from US$2862 last week from US$2945 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3000;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$33 from US$31 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.71 from US$4.56 from US$4.57;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$65 from US$66 from US$65;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$88,562 from US$85,022 last week from US$98,402 two weeks ago @ 5.18 PM on March 07, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF) to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "20 Extreme Fear" from "20 Extreme Fear" last week from "35 Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5770 from 5955 last week from 6013 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6200
b. S&P 500: PE 23; Forward PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Sold Broadcom

2. HK Equities - Higher; 24185 from 22941 from 23478;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d Added to ASMPT
e. Traded Trip
f. Traded China Unicom
g. Traded Alibaba
h. Sold 1/2 Baidu
i. Sold 1/2 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
j. Sold JD
k. Sold Trip
l. Sold Meituan
m. Sold CICC
n. Sold AIA

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3373 from 3321 from 3379;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Sold 1/2 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1547 from 1575 from 1591:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded NationGate
c. Traded CIMB
d. Sold Supermax
e. Sold Tenaga


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Mar 07 @ 5.07 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 151 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.32 from 3.30 from 3.31;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.63 from 0.62 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.08 from 1.04 from 1.05;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7725 from 7.7786 from 7.7731;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.41 from 4.46 from 4.63;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.33 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.23 from 7.28 from 7.25;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 103.67 from 107.56 last week from 106.52 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.30% from 4.20% last week from 4.49% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 3.99% from 3.99% from 4.26%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.11 from 97.12 last week from 96.77 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 79.45 from 80.13 from 79.80;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1286 from 1112 from 904; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 16, 2025

chaos.jpg

Navigating Chaos

The markets have been volatile and I'm trying to navigate through the chaos:-

1. US:-
a. The S&P 500 has lost about 8% over the past three weeks
b. The Trump Administration has been flipping here and there, that even a full-time investor will have a problem staying on top of his yackings.
c. The US is making enemies right, left and centre. People will always remember his insult and will be waiting to kick him hard when he next stumbles.
d A 20% discount should be applied straight away to the US market on his antics
e. The time is right for a correction of 10% to 25% for the US market
d. A Stagflation or even Recession, is probably on the horizon.
e. With 4 more years of Chaos, one must now be very nimble and be prepared to play the long game.
f. Will you be still standing at the end of 4 years of chaos?
g. Although US Earnings Projections has not dropped by much, one can now see the slowdown on Main Street. And this is before the mass DOGE firing, Trade War Collateral Damage etc.
h. The US market is now a "Hit & Run" market not "Buy & Hold"


2. HK:-
a. The HK market has had 5 days of losses before the bounce yesterday
b. Is it a Dead Cat Bounce or does the bounce yesterday really has legs?
c. There will be an economic briefing next week and if you are hoping for the Big Bazooka, I think that you would be disappointed again
d. HK has rallied about 5600 points in two months on the "Deep Seek" story. Do you really think that there would be much productivity gain from AI over the next two to three years? If not, why are you then so excited with the "Deep Seek" story?
d. The "experts" are now saying that the HK Rally cannot continue without the participation of foreign funds. So will foreign funds be returning in the near future?
e. IMHO, I think it will take another 2 to 3 years for the economy to turnaround so there's no need to chase HK Equities after it has risen so much. The time to buy was 2 months ago not now.
f. if there's a 50% retracement of the HK market ie. 2800 points, I may get excited with the HK market again.
g. The Big China Techs are now a "Hit & Run" now not "Buy & Hold"

3. Malaysia:-
a. The Malaysian market dropped about 10% from the beginning of 2025
b. The foreigners have been selling for the past 4 months. Do they still have a substantial position left?
c. The Local Funds were not able to absorb the selling by the foreign funds.
d. Most of the retail investors are already losing a lot of money so they wont be a force to be reckoned with anymore
e. I cannot see any sector that I like in Malaysia beside the Banks. However, since the foreigners have a substantial holding in the banks, would I really want to be buying the banks at this point in time?
f. What is the view of the foreigners on the MYR? If they think that the MYR would weaken from here then that's another reason to stay away from the Malaysian market.
g. Is the Malaysian market uninvestable at this point in time?

I do not have a bullish view of the markets. I'm now hunkering down and waiting for the storm to past. The problem is that this time, the storm may last for 4 years instead of the usual one year.

I'm trying to navigate the chaos through the following:-
1. Raising Cash
2. Ensuring a substantial "margin of safety" for any of my purchases
3. Ensuring that I follow my Set-Ups, Position Sizing, Trailing Stop-Loss etc.
4. Ensuring that my counters can withstand 4 years of Chaos
5. Waiting to buy Hedges ie. Puts, Inverse ETFs, etc.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (42% from 43% last week from 48% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 30% (9 Counters); Overbought?
c. US: 25% (9 Counters); Bearish Sentiment?
d. Malaysia: 45% (17 from 18 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Mar 01, 25 @ 11.35 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$67 from US$67 last week from US$70 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m bpd could be affected.
c. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3001 from US$2914 from US$2862;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
c. Sold GDX (Senior Gold Miners)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$34 from US$33 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.90 from US$4.71 from US$4.56;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$64 from US$65 from US$66;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$84,149 from US$88,562 last week from US$85,022 two weeks ago @ 6.06 AM on March 15, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Vested in SBIT (Inverse Bitcoin 2x ETF) to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "21 Extreme Fear" from "20 Extreme Fear" last week from "20 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5639 from 5770 last week from 5955 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400. 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
I. Sold GDX (Senior Gold Miners)
j. Sold PSQ (Inverse QQQ)
k. Traded Grab
l. Traded AVGO (Broadcom)
m. Traded NVDA (Nvidia)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 23960 from 23463 from 24185;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought China Unicom

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3420 from 3373 from 3321;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1512 from 1547 from 1575:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded NationGate
c. Sold 1/2 Genting Berhad


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 14 @ 4.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 149 from 147 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.33 from 3.32 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.63 from 0.63 from 0.62;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.04;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7729 from 7.7725 from 7.7786;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.44 from 4.41 from 4.46;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.34 from 1.33 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.23 from 7.28;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.93 from 103.67 last week from 107.56 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.32% from 4.30% last week from 4.20% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.02% from 3.99% from 3.99%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.33 from 96.11 last week from 97.12 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.88 from 79.45 from 80.13;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 24, 2025

opportunity.jpg

Opportunities From The Chaos?

The markets have been weak and I have been trying to see whether there are any opportunities out there. The following are my comments on the various markets:-

1. US:-
a. The US market has been weakening and I have started to slowly accumulate some small positions eg. NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL,META, AMZN etc.
2. The CNN Greed & Fear Index is at "Extreme Fear" (Oversold) so a near term bounce is probably on it's way
3. When that rebound arrives, I must not hesitate to take the small profits.
4. The US economy is deteriorating and this is before the DOGE layoffs over the next few months and the unintended consequences from the tariffs.
5. The chaos out there will probably last for the next 4 years so there's a need to keep some dry powder for any opportunity that may appear

HK:-
1. The HK market has gone up about 5600 points in two months
2. The meteoric rise in HK has been due to the Chinese Money flowing into the China Big Techs in HK. In comparison, the Shanghai market's rise was moderate
3. I do not see additional Foreign Money buying at this level
4. I also do not see "Earnings" going up by much, to justify the current rise.
5. It may take a few years before we see any real profit from any "Deep Seek" investment
5. The following is an example of the current "animal spirits" in the HK:-
a. Two months ago, I cant get my friends to buy Alibaba at HK $80
b. Now, after Alibaba has gone up about 80%, I cant get my friends to sell Alibaba at HK$ 140.
6. The HK market has dropped 1000 points over the past two days. Let's see whether there would be a scramble for the exit over the next few weeks as was the case in Oct & Nov 2024
7. For me to be really interested in the HK market again (which was my biggest position a few months ago), I will need it to retrace 50% ie. 2800 points to about 21,800
8. Having said that, there could be some special situations in HK, away from the China Big Techs. However, if the Market Direction is down over the next few weeks, then it may be quite difficult to bet against it unless there's a very convincing story.
9. "Cash Is King" and I will be taking my time to replenish my HK inventory unless there is a fast & furious crash

Malaysia:-
1. The foreigners have been selling for about 5 months now
2. The situation is also quite bad in Thailand and Indonesia
3. The foreigners still owned about 22% of the Malaysian Banks. If they decide to also sell some of their Malaysian Banks holdings, the drop could be quite bad
4. I'll probably be selling some of my Malaysian counters whenever I can
5. There are some "special situations" but I'm not buying aggressively at this point in time
6. If BNM reduces interest rates, the MYR would also be hit. Therefore, I should take my time to convert some of my USD & HKD to MYR

Finally, I need to remind myself that there are many moving parts in the markets now. With an unpredictable Trump Administration, the Risk now far outweighs any Reward at this point in time.

It's better to stay in Cash and to wait for the storm to pass. However, this storm may last for the next four years and there could also be multiple storms ahead. It's better to err on the side of caution than to buy too early. It's time to hunker down.

During the Asian Financial Crisis, Equities dropped about 50% while the Currency dropped about 30%. Can you survive a 80% drop in your risky exposure?


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (40% from 42% last week from 43% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 29% (9 Counters); China Techs Overbought?
c. US: 29% (10 Counters); Bearish Sentiment?
d. Malaysia: 42% (16 Counters); Foreigners Selling
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Mar 22, 25 @ 07.47 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$68 from US$67 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices (Medium Term)
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3021 from US$3001 from US$2914;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
c. Will "Used Gold" sales offset the Central Bank buying?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$33 from US$34 from US$33;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$5.11 from US$4.90 from US$4.71;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$66 from US$64 from US$65;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$84,070 from US$84,149 last week from US$88,562 two weeks ago @ 7.57 AM on March 22, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "23 Extreme Fear" from "21 Extreme Fear" last week from "20 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5668 from 5639 last week from 5770 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400. 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
I. Bought AMZN
j. Bought AVGO (Broadcom)
k. Bought META
l. Sold Grab

2. HK Equities - Lower; 23685 from 23960 from 23463;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Traded China Unicom
e. Traded Baidu
f. Sold 1/2 ASMPT

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3365 from 3420 from 3373;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1505 from 1512 from 1547:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1472, 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Traded IJM
d. Sold 2/3 Natgate
e. Sold Genting Berhad


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 22 @ 2.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 149 from 149 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.31 from 3.33 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. Converted most of my SGD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.63 from 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7735 from 7.7729 from 7.7725;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
d. Waiting to convert some HKD to MYR
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.42 from 4.44 from 4.41;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.25 from 7.23 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.15 from 103.93 last week from 103.67 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.25% from 4.32% last week from 4.30% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.95% from 4.02% from 3.99%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.76 from 95.33 last week from 96.11 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 79.22 from 78.88 from 79.45;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 29, 2025

uninvestable-markets.jpg

Uninvestable Markets?

The markets have been weak again for the past week and it reminded me of what one of the Investment House was calling the HK market, right at it's bottom.

Now that this term is constantly ringing in my ears, hopefully I'm also wrong like that esteemed Investment House.

Anyway, the following are my comments on the various markets this week and my position has not really changed from last week. (I'm starting to sound like a broken record).

1. US:-
a. The tariffs would be arriving next week assuming that the Trump Admin would not be changing their mind again and then again after thatetc. (They are starting to be quite predictable)
b. I have sold some of my US counters and have hedged the rest with the Volatility ETF (UVXY) which is doing quite well. (Thank You Trump for creating the volatility in the markets!)
c. The Mag 7 has been correcting but I will be taking my time to buy as I can see years of chaos ahead

Hk:-
1. The China Big-Techs are probably overbought so I'm avoiding them
2. I was trying to trade the non Big-Techs but they have been weak
3. I will probably need to hunker down and wait for the 50% retracement ie. 2800 points, to about 21,800
4. I don't see the foreigners rushing into the HK market at this level
5. I also do not see the Earnings of the China BigTechs rising by much from here
6. It there's a crash, the National Team may appear but probably not before that

Malaysia:-
1. The foreigners are continuing their selling
2. We now have problems in Indonesia, Thailand and Turkiye. If the foreign funds are getting out of the Emerging Markets, the selling would be very quick.
3. I should preserve some of my capital and not buy any more Malaysian counters unless there's a very soIid convincing story

From the above, it looks like all three of the markets that I follow, are uninvestable at this point in time.

I was actually hoping that there would be some 1Q Window Dressing activity but it does not seemed to be the case now.

For next week, there would be "New Money From The New Month" flowing into the markets. Maybe there could be a small spike in the markets next week but everyone is waiting for the tariffs and the counter to the tariffs etc.

If the markets are univestable now then where should I be putting my money?
Cash, FDs, US Bonds would probably be good places for hunkering down.

If I want to be a bit adventurous, I could buy some Inverse ETFs, Leveraged Put Warrants or add to my UVXY (Volatility ETF). However, I still cannot feel the fear in the markets yet so I will probably wait for a while more.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat; (40% from 40% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 30%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 33% (10 Counters); Overbought Big-Techs?
c. US: 26% (10 Counters); Bearish Sentiment? Mag 7 correcting.
d. Malaysia: 41% (16 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 25%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of Mar 29, 25 @ 07.00 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$69 from US$68 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 39x
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3127 from US$3021 from US$3001;
Support: 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Gold is rising but the share price of gold miners are not
c. Would sale of "Used Gold" offset the Central Bank buying?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$35 from US$33 from US$34;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$5.15 from US$5.11 from US$4.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$64 from US$66 from US$64;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$84,474 from US$84,070 last week from US$84,149 two weeks ago @ 7.04 AM on March 29, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "22 Extreme Fear" from "23 Extreme Fear" last week from "21 Extreme Fear" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5580 from 5668 last week from 5639 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400. 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 209; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 41
h. Ratio of S&P to gold: 2.2x
i. Sold 1/2 UVXY
j. Sold AMZN
k. Sold META

2. HK Equities - Lower; 23427 from 23685 from 23960;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 23200 (Oct 2024); 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Sunny Optical
e. Traded New Oriental Education
f. Traded Nongfu Spring
g. Traded China Merchant Bank
h. Traded Vitasoy
i. Traded Meituan

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3351 from 3365 from 3420;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 8
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1514 from 1505 from 1512:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1472, 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. No Trade


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 29 @ 7.15 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 150 from 149 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.30 from 3.31 from 3.33;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.63 from 0.63 from 0.63;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.7876 from 7.7735 from 7.7729;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.43 from 4.42 from 4.44;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.26 from 7.25 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.01 from 104.15 last week from 103.93 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.25% from 4.25% last week from 4.32% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.91% from 3.95% from 4.02%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.21 from 95.76 last week from 95.33 two weeks ago;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 78.80 from 79.22 from 78.88;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

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