Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)

[winston]

TOL @ May 5, 2024

sell in may.jpeg

Sell in May? Really?

The US Markets have been moving up over the past two weeks and Tom Lee, the uber bull from Fundstrat, is saying that the sell-off is over.

He pointed to five dovish signs that the Fed gave:-
1. The Fed is slowing its pace of quantitative tightening
2. Inflation is pointing lower
3. Rate cuts can coexist with a strong labor market
4. The economy isn't facing stagflation
5. A rate hike is unlikely

As for myself, I'm just trading the US Markets. Whenever a branded counter collapses on poor earnings announcement, I will try to buy it for the 1/3 retracement. So far, I have been lucky with New Oriental Education, Meta and Etsy. Waiting for Cloudflare which I entered on Friday.

As 2/3 of the US companies have already reported earnings, there wont be much opportunity left to trade the US markets. In addition, volume would probably be dwindling down in a few weeks time too due to the summer holidays.

For the HK market, it has moved up about 2200 points in the past 2 weeks or so. The "experts" are now saying that the HK market can touch 19,500 to 20,000 from the current 18,400. Where were these "experts" when the index was at 16,200 just two weeks ago? Did these "experts" ask you to buy at 16,200? If not, why are you listening to them now? Talk is Cheap.

As for myself, the HK market probably moved up after 16,200, on short-covering by the warrant issuers, as they have already made their money by suspending the leveraged call warrants to 16,200. Thereafter, the long funds and the hedge funds probably chase the market up from 16,200 as they were so underweighted HK.

Going forward, do you really think that the hedge funds and long funds would be buying after the HK market has gone up about 14% from just two weeks ago? In addition, cant you see the CBBC issuers salivating and waiting to slaughter the leveraged call warrant holders, all the way to 16,500?

Anyway, I have been selling whatever I can into the HK rally and raising as much Cash as possible.
In addition, fundamentals in HK and China have not really changed over the past two weeks.

For next week, it would probably be the same old, same old. I will continue to sell if the opportunity presents itself.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (28% from 31% last week from 43% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 33% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 19% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of May 03, 2024 @ 1.30 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$79 from US$84 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78; Suspended Replenishment;
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2316 from US$2350 from US$2407;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower; US$27 from US$28 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.50 from US$4.57 from US$4.49;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$92 from US$86 last week from US$89 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$59,619 from US$64,463 last week from US$63,652 two weeks ago @ 1.35 PM on May 03, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "40 Fear" from "42 Fear" last week from "31 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5128 from 5100 last week from 4967 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Cloudflare
h. Traded ETSY
i. Sold Alibaba

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18476 from 17651 from 16224;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Sold 1/2 AIA
d. Sold 1/2 Alibaba
e. Sold HS Tech ETF (3033)
f. Sold Sands China

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3105 from 3089 from 3065;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38236 from 37935 from 37068;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1590 from 1548 from 1551:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on May 03 @ 1.40 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 153 from 156 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.50 from 3.51 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.07 from 1.07 from 1.06;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8128 from 7.8294 from 7.8314;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.78 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.35 from 1.36 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.24 from 7.25 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 105.10 from 105.48 last week from 105.97
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.58% from 4.69% from 4.62%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.88% from 4.99% from 4.99%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 93.84 from 93.42 from 92.84;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.75 from 76.39 from 75.86;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1774 from 1743 from 1901; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ May 12, 2024

Bear.jpeg

The Bears Are Growling Again!

The markets were grinding higher and the bears were growling again including:-

1. Grant Cardone, Real Estate Investor
a. Foresees devastating stock market plunge of 50%
b. Yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days. This scenario has occurred only three times since 1920—in 1929, 1974, and 2009.
c. Following each of these periods, the market experienced declines of more than 50%.

2. Gary Shilling
a. The US will see a recession by year end
b. That could spark a 30% drop in stock market

3. John Hussman, Hussman Funds
a. We are witnessing the bursting of the greatest credit bubble in human history
b. Crashes are direct consequences of the bursting of credit bubbles.
c. The stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash.
d. A market crash as steep as 65% would not be a surprise

As for myself, I've sold whatever I can, into the HK rally. For the counters that I'm keeping, I'm prepared to hold them for another 2 to 3 years.

I dont know whether a crash would be coming but I do see a lot of warning signs. In addition, this is also a traditionally weak period for the markets (May to October).

I will now only buy if there's extremely deep value or if I'm very confident that I can make a quick trade off it. I'm no longer trading borderline opportunities.

I'm raising my Cash level as much as possible. I have sold at least 25 positions over the past 3 week.

I think that the US market has gone up a bit too much, especially the Magnificent Seven. In addition, the US Earnings Season is winding down and there may not be too many opportunities left to trade.

As for HK, it has risen about 3000 points in 3 weeks. Fundamentally, nothing has really changed in that three weeks. So why would one wants to chase this current HK rally?

As mentioned last week, the HK CBBCs issuers are salivating. If they can push the index down, from the current 19,000 to 16,000, they would really be laughing all the way to the bank. There are so many leveraged call warrants just waiting to be knocked off now, Intuitively, 17,500 would be a nice first stop for these warrant issuers.

For next week, there's nothing much happening in the markets so it may be a good time for a "Trading Break". US Earnings Season is winding down and HK has gone up too much already. I have also been too close to the markets over the two months so it may be a good time to step back and rest a bit.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (30% from 28% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 48% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 32% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 20% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 10, 2024 @ 11.06 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$80 from US$79 last week from US$84 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2357 from US$2316 from US$2350;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$27 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.62 from US$4.50 from US$4.57;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$94 from US$92 last week from US$86 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$62,868 from US$59,619 last week from US$64,463 two weeks ago @ 11.10 AM on May 10, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "48 Neutral" from "40 Fear" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5223 from 5128 last week from 5100 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Shopify

2. HK Equities - Higher. 18,476 from 17,651 from 16,224;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3105 from 3089 from 3065;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38236 from 37935 from 37068;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1590 from 1548 from 1551:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on May 10 @ 10.50 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 156 from 153 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.50 from 3.50 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.08 from 1.07 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8155 from 7.8128 from 7.8294;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.74 from 4.74 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.36;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.23 from 7.24 from 7.25;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.20 from 105.10 last week from 105.48 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.46% from 4.58% from 4.69%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.82% from 4.88% from 4.99%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.24 from 93.84 from 93.42;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.02 from 76.75 from 76.39;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2166 from 1774 from 1743; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ May 19, 2024

Gone Fishing.png

Trading Break

As mentioned last week, I think that it's a good time to take a "Trading Break".

The US Earnings Season is winding down while HK has gone up by quite a bit in the past three weeks.

Having said that, I still traded a few ideas this week as the opportunity was just too tempting eg. Rubber Gloves, Samsonite, Alibaba etc.

Over the years, I have mentioned that it's good to have a trading break every 6 weeks or so.

It helps to give one a detached view of the markets as well as to give one a fresh look at oneself and how one would like to trade for the next few weeks.

If one is too near the markets, one sometimes cannot see the big picture and connect the dots properly.

In such a fast moving world now with so many moving parts and instantaneous news, one must have the ability to think 4 to 5 steps ahead of any event.

In addition, if one is not at a very high mental efficiency, say >90%, one would not be able to make money in this type of fast moving AI driven market.

For the US market next week, Earnings Season is winding down so there would probably be not many trading opportunity left. It's also starting to feel a bit "euphoric" and one can see it in the movement of the meme stocks.

For the HK market, it also feel a bit euphoric. It has already gone up 3500 points in about 3 weeks. I will probably not buy at this level unless there's a very good trading opportunity. In addition, I have already mentioned that the CBBC issuers will make a lot of money if they can bring the market down 3500 points to knock out all the leveraged call warrants.

As for the Malaysian market, it looks like they are focusing on the strong stocks eg. YTL, YTL Power, Sunway, Sunway Construction, Hume Cement Industries, Malaysan Cement etc.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (31% from 30% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 47% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 37% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of May 17, 2024 @ 9.00 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$80 from US$80 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2400 from US$2357 last week from US$2316 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$31 from US$29 from US$27;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$5.02 from US$4.62 from US$4.50;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$91 from US$94 last week from US$92two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$66,438 from US$62,868 last week from US$59,619 two weeks ago @ 9.03 PM on May 17, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "65 Greed" from "48 Neutral" last week from "40 Fear" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5303 from 5223 last week from 5128 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 20; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Krispy Kreme

2. HK Equities - Higher. 19554 from 18,476 from 17,651;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Traded Samsonite
e. Sold Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3154 from 3105 from 3089;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38787 from 38236 from 37935;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1617 from 1590 from 1548:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded Supermax
c. Sold Hartalega
d. Sold 1/6 DNEX


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on May 17 @ 9.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 156 from 156 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.48 from 3.50 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.09 from 1.08 from 1.07;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8018 from 7.8155 from 7.8128;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.69 from 4.74 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.23 from 7.24;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.53 from 105.20 last week from 105.10 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.40% from 4.46% from 4.58%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.80% from 4.82% from 4.88%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.47 from 94.24 from 93.84;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.27 from 77.02 from 76.75;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1817 from 2166 from 1774; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ May 26, 2024

Complacency.jpeg

Complacent Markets?

The markets have been grinding higher for the past month and people have been behaving as if the "good times" can last forever.

For the US market, the earning season is winding down and there's no other catalyst on the horizon to prop things up except for the anticipated 25 bps rates reduction on Sept 18th. Summer travel is also here and trading volume would probably be getting lighter from here.

For the HK market, I have been calling for a correction as it has gone up too much and too fast for the past month. So far, it has only corrected about 1000 points after rising 3500 points in 4 weeks. I'm slowly buying back the HK stocks that I have sold. The support for the HK market seems to be around 17,600 which is about a 1000 points drop from here.

For the Malaysian market, I'm focusing on the bigger counters only. I'm avoiding the smaller companies as I'm not too confident that the smaller companies can survive any hard times. SNAFU?

To frighten you a bit, I will quote what Bill Smead this week:-
"Stocks are 'going nowhere' for the next decade as inflation sticks around and US debt balloons".
a. The stock market will see dismal returns for the next 10-15 years
b. Bill also warned that inflation will likely stick around over the long term
c. That could produce a situation similar to the 1970s, when soaring prices led to a "dead zone" for stocks.

And to have a balanced picture, I will quote Morgan Stanley's Bill Wilson, one of Wall Street’s most prominent bears:-
a. Bill has just turned positive about the outlook for US stocks
b. He now sees the S&P 500 rising 2% by June 2025, a major about-turn from his view that the benchmark will tumble 15% by Dec 2024
c. The strategist's bearish 2023 outlook failed to materialized as markets kept rallying
d. Finally, he gave in and boosted his target for the S&P 500 to 5,400 from 4,500

For next week, I'm not expecting much for the US market. As for HK, I'm expecting it to be a bit weak until we reach around 17600, from the current 18600.

Having said the above, if there's a serious dip for any "brand-name" counter, I would probably investigate it and then decide on whether there's an opportunity to trade it for a 1/3 retracement.

My gut feel is that it's better to be a bit more careful and to keep a higher level cash at this point in time.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (35% from 30% last week from 28% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 45% (13 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 40% (8 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of May 24, 2024 @ 9.11 PM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$80 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left;
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower. US$2345 from US$2400 last week from US$2357 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$29;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.79 from US$5.02 from US$4.62;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Higher; US$92 from US$91 last week from US$94 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$67,302 from US$66,438 lzst week from US$62,868 two weeks ago @ 9.16 PM on May 24, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "53 Neutral" from "65 Greed" last week from "48 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Flat; 5305 from 5303 last week from 5223 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Workday

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18609 from 19554 from 18,476;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Alibaba
e. Traded Vitasoy

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3089 from 3154 from 3105;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38646 from 38787 from 38236;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1619 from 1617 from 1590:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought YTL Power


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 25 @ 8.05 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 157 from 156 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.48 from 3.48 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8123 from 7.8018 from 7.8155;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.70 from 4.69 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.24 from 7.23 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.65 from 104.53 last week from 105.20 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.47% from 4.40% from 4.46%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.95% from 4.80% from 4.82%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.28 from 94.47 from 94.24;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.09 from 77.27 from 77.02;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1796 from 1817 from 2166; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back.

[winston]

TOL @ June 02, 2024

June.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets early next week. Thereafter, I think that the markets will not be going anywhere until 2H Window Dressing Season begins.

For the US markets, they are now talking of an interest rates cut on Jul 31st and Sep 18th. The US economy is not doing too well and the warning signs are there eg. delinquent credit cards, poor retail sales, weak manufacturing numbers, struggling Dow Transport stocks etc. You can read more on the various warning signs in the link below:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

For the HK & China markets, there were some ETF outflows recently. As mentioned, I think that the first support for the HK market is around 17600, which is only about 400 points away. I have started to slowly replenish my inventory for the HK markets. I dont want to be buying too soon but I dont want to also have no inventory either if it starts to move upwards suddenly.

For the HK market, I still see a lot of Leveraged Call Warrants from 16,000 points That's a bit worrying as the Investment Banks have a very strong incentive to bring the Hang Seng down to below 16,000 points over the next 12 months. At the same time, the long funds are quite underweight HK & China and may be forced to increase their weighting whenever it dips.

For this week, there were a lot of bearish comments including the following:-
1. Strategas
a. Potential pullback in the S&P 500 this June, driven by a temporary liquidity drain of about US$130b.
b. The drain is due to a mix of factors, including changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and increased T-bill issuance.

2. John Hussman
a. The S&P 500 could plunge as much as 70% this cycle as markets hit a 'motherlode' of FOMO extremes
b. His firm's most reliable indicator now exceeds 1929 extremes.
c. A combination of red-flag factors include overextended valuations, divergence among individual stock sectors and lopsided sentiment
d. Another point of caution is the growing group of stocks hitting fresh 52-week lows, even as indexes themselves skyrocket.

For next week, I dont see much happening so it may be a good time to take a trading break. I was supposed to take a trading break about two weeks ago but ended up doing a bit of trading when I saw some trading opportunities.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (40% from 31% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 44% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 41% (9 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of June 01, 2024 @ 6.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$77 from US$77 last week from US$80 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Flat. US$2347 from US$2345 last week from US$2400 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$31 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.63 from US$4.79 from US$5.02;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$90 from US$92 last week from US$91 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$68,298 from US$67,302 last week from US$66,438 two weeks ago @ 2.45 PM on May 31, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "48 Neutral" from "53 Neutral" last week from "65 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5278 from 5305 last week from 5303 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18609 from 19554 from 18,476;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Netease
e. Bought Meituan
f. Added to JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3089 from 3154 from 3105;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38646 from 38787 from 38236;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1619 from 1617 from 1590:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded Lagenda
c. Sold YTL Power


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 31 @ 2.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.48 from 3.48 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8180 from 7.8123 from 7.8018;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.70 from 4.70 from 4.69;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.24 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.77 from 104.65 last week from 104.53 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.50% from 4.47% from 4.40%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.88% from 4.95% from 4.80%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.95 from 94.28 from 94.47;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.86 from 77.09 from 77.27;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1801 from 1796 from 1817; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 09, 2024

Buy Sell Hold.jpeg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

After the initial spike at the beginning of the week (from the new money of the new month?), the markets didnt go anywhere thereafter.

One can also feel the "Sentiments" weakening and people are no longer willing to chase the hot stories.

If one is a "pure" trader, one would probably be not in this type of market.

Anyway, the following are some bearish news from UBS, who mentioned that six out of eight warning signs of a bubble have already flashed:-
1. The end of a structural bull market - Flashed
2. When profits are under pressure - Flashed
3. Large loss of breadth - Flashed
4. Needs a 25-year gap from the prior bubble - Flashed
5. Has a 25-year gap from prior bubble - Flashed
6. Retail starts to participate aggressively - Flashed
7. Monetary policy being too loose - Hasn't flashed
8. Extended period of limited declines - Hasn't flashed
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

At the same time, Goldman Sachs is still bullish on the markets for the following reasons:-
1. A flood of cash from passive equity allocations in early July
2. Share prices should benefit from strong seasonal trends and
3. Rising engagement from retail investors

If the "experts" like UBS and GS, cannot agree on the direction of the markets, what chance does a mere mortal like me has, in trying to decide on whether to Sell, Hold or Buy?

Anyway, for the US markets, I'm continuing with my strategy of buying oversold counters for the 1/3 retracement.

For HK, the "Issuers of the Leveraged Call Warrants" have an incentive to push the index down while the "Long Funds" who are underweight the HK & China markets, are trying to increase their position. This "tug of war" situation in HK will be good for the nimble traders.

For Malaysia, I do not have a big position as I cant seemed to find any good convincing story.

My exposure to Equities has been steadily increasing and I should remind myself to be a bit more careful. Whenever I see a 'bargain", I have a tendency to buy it without reflecting on the big picture ie. fundamentals are actually deteriorating.

For next week, I think that it will be the "same old, same old" again. I thought that I would be having a 'Trading Break" this week but I ended up doing quite a bit of trading in HK. Maybe I will get my "Trading Break" next week.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (44% from 40% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 45% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 40% (9 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of June 01, 2024 @ 6.20 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75 from US$77 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower. US$2311 from US$2347 last week from US$2345 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$29 from US$31 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.45 from US$4.63 from US$4.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$87 from US$90 last week from US$92 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$69,379 from US$68,298 last week from US$67,302 two weeks ago @ 7.30 AM on June 8, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "45 Neutral" from "53 Neutral" last week from "65 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 5278 from 5305 last week from 5303 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5400
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought DELL

2. HK Equities - Lower. 18367 from 18609 from 19554;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Lenovo
e. Bought ASM Pacific
f. Bought 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
g. Traded JD
h. Traded VitaSoy
i. Sold NetEase


3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3051 from 3089 from 3154;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. Bought 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) in HK

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38684 from 38646 from 38787;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1618 from 1619 from 1617:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Sold YNH


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jun 8 @ 7.50 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160

b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.47 from 3.48 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8135 from 7.8180 from 7.8123;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.69 from 4.70 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.24 from 7.23 from 7.24;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.92 from 104.77 last week from 104.65 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.43% from 4.50% from 4.47%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.89% from 4.88% from 4.95%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.93 from 93.95 from 94.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 76.89 from 76.86 from 77.09;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1869 from 1801 from 1796; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ June 16, 2024

window-dressing.jpg

1H Window Dressing?

It's 1H Window Dressing time so the markets should be relatively strong until early July.

However, the "experts" are now very bearish on the markets and the following are some of what was written this week:-

A. Doug Cass: Fifteen Reasons To View This Market Cautiously
1. Equity performance has been top heavy
2. Corporate profit performance is also reliant of mega-cap tech
3. Corporate profit expectations are unrealistic
4. The market is not broadening out
5. Traditional valuation metrics are generally in the 90% tile or higher
6. The breathtaking reset in valuations (since October) could mean reverse
7. Interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer
8. Equities have rarely been as overvalued against interest rates as they are today
9. Global economic growth is expected to be weak (relative to consensus)
10. Inflation (particularly of a service-kind) will remain sticky
11. Consensus S&P EPS may be too high
12. Political risks are underappreciated
13. Geopolitical risks are unlikely to abate
14. Investor sentiment remains bullish and fear is absent
15. Market structure and investor positioning are potentially toxic market influences
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=10

B. Shiff Sovereign: Five Predictions For The Coming Decade Of Decline:-
1. Inflation is coming. The government’s own projections forecast an extra $20 trillion in new debt over the coming decade, and frankly that’s optimistic.
2. Social Security is not going to be there for you by 2033, Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money.
3. Higher taxes are virtually guaranteed
4. Continued social chaos
5. Maybe most importantly, major geopolitical disruptions.

With so many such bearish articles out there, one needs to be mentally strong to be able to stay in this type of markets.

My position has not really changed from last week:-
1. US: Earnings Season is almost over but "Window Dressing" is here
2. HK: "Tug Of War" between:-
a. Investment Banks who have issued a lot of "Leveraged Call Warrants from 16,000 versus
b. Long Funds who are underweighted China and the National Team
My gut feel is that 17600 could be the Support. I have been adding to my HK positions while taking small profits whenever possible. HK is a good trading market.

For next week, I think that the markets would be grinding higher due to Window Dressing activities so it's not a bad idea to hold till early July unless it's a windfall profit.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (41% from 44% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 53% (16 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 30% (7 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 17% (5 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Big Tech eg. Alibaba, Baidu, JD, 3033 (HS Tech ETF) etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; (As of June 15, 2024 @ 7.06 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$75 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
c. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing?
d. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand)
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher. US$2348 from US$2311 last week from US$2347 two weeks ago;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$30 from US$29 from US$31;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.50 from US$4.45 from US$4.63;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Lower; US$86 from US$87 last week from US$90 two weeks ago;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$65,887 from US$69,379 last week from US$68,298 two weeks ago @ 7.18 AM on June 15, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "38 Fear" from "48 Neutral" last week from "53 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 5432 from 5278 last week from 5305 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5400
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought DELL
h. Sold Cloudflare
i. Sold Shopify

2. HK Equities - Lower. 17976 from 18367 from 18609;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19600; 24000; 31200;
c. Forward PE 9
d. Bought Chow Tai Fook
e. Bought 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Bought Lenovo
g. Added to BABA
h. Added to AIA
i. Traded ASM Pacific
j. Traded Meituan
k. Sold China Resource Beer

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3033 from 3051 from 3089;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: Forward PE 9.5
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 38815 from 38684 from 38646;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1607 from 1618 from 1619:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jun 15 @ 7.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 160
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.48 from 3.47 from 3.48;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.66 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8141 from 7.8135 from 7.8180;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.72 from 4.69 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.26 from 7.24 from 7.23;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.14 from 104.92 last week from 104.77 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.22% from 4.43% from 4.50%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.71% from 4.89% from 4.88%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.15 from 93.93 from 93.95;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.06 from 76.89 from 76.86;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1942 from 1869 from 1801; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

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