Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Dec 24)

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 25, 2024

China Rally.jpeg

HK & China Rally (Part 2)

As expected, we have had a rally in the HK & China markets this week. However, it was not as strong as I anticipated. It looks like a "two steps forward, one step backwards" type of situation.

Maybe it's better this way as a strong rally could encourage sudden profit-taking. In addition, a "slow & steady" climb could also encourage some of the traders (like me) to just "buy & hold" instead of trading regularly for small profits.

The surprise this week was the leap of NVDA in the US and the new high in the Japanese market. It shows me that anything is possible so it's always good to remain flexible and open-minded.

Moving on, the following are some of the bearish articles this week;-

1. Roukaya Ibrahim, BCA Strategist:- .
a. A downturn would come sometime before early 2025.
b. Once the economy slips into a contraction, stocks could plunge 26%

2. Cole Smead, Smead Capital CEO:-
a. 50-50 chance stocks could lose as much as 30% in the next two years

3. JPM:-
a. The US is heading towards stagflation, which would be terrible news for stocks

And the following are some bullish articles:-

1. Ed Yardeni:-
a. Stocks could soar 30% in the next 2 years if 'mob psychology' doesn't spark a meltdown
b. Stocks risk a "meltup" as AI investor exuberance gets out of control

2. Daily Wealth:-
a. The Advance / Decline on the S&P 500 is back on the rise
b. For now, stocks are hitting highs in a healthy way

For next week, I'm expecting the HK & China markets to resume their slow climb. If there's a sharp spike upwards ( say 7%), I may use the opportunity to raise some Cash. However, my expectations is for a boring slow-rising market.

I dont think that the HK & China markets will dip sharply as the National Team is on standby to support the market. If it does dip sharply, I will probably add to my existing positions depending on the cause of the dip at that time.


Risk Management Report:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat; (47% from 47% last week from 52% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$77 from US$79 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2046 from US$2026 from US$2039;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.87 from US$3.82 from US$3.69;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$102 from US$103 from US$106;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$51200 from US$52102 last week from US$46633 two weeks ago @ 2.31 PM on Feb 23, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Illegal Activities, Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian and Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "78 Extreme Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "78 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5089 from 5006 last week from 5027 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16726 from 16339 from 15746;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3005 from 2866 from 2866;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 39099 from 38487 from 36944;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1549 from 1536 from 1512:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Bought a small speculative IT company


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 23 @ 2.18 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 151 from 150 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.56 from 3.55 from 3.54;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8337 from 7.8218 from 7.8213;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.79 from 4.78 from 4.77;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.20 from 7.19 from 7.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.85 from 104.30 last week from 104.06 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.25% from 4.35% from 4.28%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.69% from 4.71% from 4.64%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.65 from 94.83 from 94.45;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.30 from 77.14 from 77.17;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1752 from 1581 from 1473; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ March 3, 2024

image.jpg

New Money From The New Month

It's a new month again so new money would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, we should see a spike in the markets next week if the Fund Managers have not already spent the money in advance on Thursday & Friday.

Anyway, the US markets were again grinding higher while HK & China was a bit choppy.

I remained cautiously bullish on the HK & China markets. In addition, you also have the "Two Sessions" (NPC and CPPCC) on March 4 & 5.

I'm expecting some stimulus programs to be announced at these "Two Sessions" and if there's a rally at that time, then it's a good time to sell into that rally as I think that it's still a "trading market".

Nowadays, I'm forcing myself to take profits on any spike of > 7% (on no news) and then try to buy it back on the fade, at say 4%.

For this week, there was a strong warning from Morgan Stanley:-
a. A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy
b. It could take 18 months after the last rate hike, to feel the full weight of higher rates

For next week, I'll be keeping an eye on the "Two Sessions", to see whether there's any trading opportunities.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (36% from 47% last week from 47% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 12% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$84 from US$77 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2092 from US$2046 from US$2026;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2075 (Aug 2020);
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$23 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Flat. US$3.86 from US$3.87 from US$3.82
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$95 from US$102 from US$103;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$62478 from US$51200 last week from US$52102 two weeks ago @ 6.45 AM on March 2, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "77 Extreme Greed" from "78 Extreme Greed" last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5137 from 5089 last week from 5006 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Added Baidu
i. Sold XLE (Senior Oil Producers ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16589 from 16726 from 16339;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added Baidu
d. Sold 1/3 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF)
e. Sold 2/3 Meituan
f. Sold Lenovo

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3027 from 3005 from 2866;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 39911 from 39099 from 38487;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1538 from 1549 from 1536:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. Sold PUC


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 01 @ 9.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 150 from 151 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.52 from 3.56 from 3.55;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8162 from 7.8337 from 7.8218;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.74 from 4.79 from 4.78;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.19 from 7.20 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.10 from 103.85 last week from 104.30 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.19% from 4.25% from 4.35%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.53% from 4.69% from 4.71%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.42 from 94.65 from 94.83;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.18 from 77.30 from 77.14;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2203 from 1752 from 1581; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ March 10, 2024

Negativity.jpeg

What could go wrong?

Doug Kass has a recent article on the "risks out there" and they are as follows:-

1. Stacked or cumulative inflation, will weigh on the U.S. consumer especially the lower income segment.

2. In part reflecting sticky inflation, interest rates will be higher for longer squeezing overleveraged borrowers (especially commercial real estate).

3. Quantitative tightening is about to kick in as RRP (Reverse Repurchase Agreement operations) drains to near zero.

4. Political and geopolitical headwinds, are fierce and show no signs of abating.

5. Our growing annual deficit and nation's debt load has not and will not likely be addressed by an unprecedented political partisanship.

6. The unstable tribal mentality of the extremes on the political left and right dominate our society: the loss of moderation spells more societal troubles.

7. Valuations, based on historical measures, are almost all above the 90%-tile. Rarely do bull markets start from current price-earnings levels.

8. Equity prices have decoupled from interest rates -- the equity risk premium is at a multi-decade low and the spread between the S&P 500 dividend yield and the yield on Treasuries has rarely been wider.

9. Investor sentiment is giddy and the Bull Market in Complacency is worrisome.

10. Like prior periods in history, a changing market structure, including ODTE options trading, of leveraged quantitative strategies & products and a general dependence on price momentum represent bona fide threats on possible market instability.


In addition, we also have a few other bearish comments this week:-

1. Milton Berg said that stocks may be close to a final peak as speculation runs hot. He warned a recession appears likely, based on several economic indicators that are flashing red. Berg suggested stocks might drop 8% to 15%.

2. John Hussman flagged the risk of a 63% plunge in the S&P 500

3. Jeremy Grantham raised the prospect of a 50% decline

4. Tom Lee: The upcoming Feb CPI inflation report on March 12th could spark the stock market's next big sell-off

And before you sell everything tomorrow, you may want to first listen to Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini who has turned 180 degrees and is now bullish on the economy:-
b. Less worried than in the past
c. There is a serious possibility of "no landing"
d. Growth remains above potential
e. Inflation remains sticky because of technology and other factors
f. The Fed doesn't cut three times, only two, one maybe zero

In view of the above, I need to remind myself to be not too "over-confident" with my China Big Tech positions. A severe dip in the US Tech Stocks will also affect the China Big techs especially when the margin calls hit the fan.

However, if there's really a severe dip, it would probably be "V-Shaped" as there's US$9t of Cash sitting on the sidelines now. But going through a 15% dip is also not fun either.

For next week, I will be watching the following:-
1. US CPI Report: Tuesday, Mar 12th
2. AIA Earnings: Thursday, Mar 14th
3. CKH Earnings: Thursday, Mar 14th


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (38% from 36% last week from 47% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 13% (7 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$78 from US$77 last week from US$79 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2186 from US$2092 from US$2046;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$25 from US$23 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$3.89 from US$3.86 from US$3.87;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$94 from US$95 from US$102;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$67845 from US$62478 last week from US$51200 two weeks ago @ 6.45 AM on March 2, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "71 Greed" from "77 Extreme Greed" last week from "78 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 5124 from 5137 last week from 5089 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16353 from 16589 from 16726;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Sands China
d. Added to 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
e. Traded JD

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3046 from 3027 from 3005;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 39689 from 39911 from 39099;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1540 from 1538 from 1549:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 08 @ 9.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 150 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.53 from 3.52 from 3.56;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.67 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.10 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8202 from 7.8162 from 7.8337;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.69 from 4.74 from 4.79;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.33 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.19 from 7.19 from 7.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 102.52 from 104.10 last week from 103.85 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.08% from 4.19% from 4.25%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.48% from 4.53% from 4.69%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 94.66 from 94.42 from 94.65;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.38 from 77.18 from 77.30;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2251 from 2203 from 1752; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ March 17, 2024

Wrong.jpg

What Can Go Wrong (Part 2)

The US markets have not been going anywhere for the past week while HK spiked early in the week and gave back half of it's rise by the end of the week.

As I think that the HK market is a "Trading Market", I sold some of my positions with the intention of buying them back later.

For this week, we continue to see various bearish comments including:-

1. Jeremy Grantham:-
a. US stocks have been dangerously overpriced and the AI-related bubble will eventually burst
b. Corporate earnings which are close to the record high are actually double counting and double jeopardy, if margins and multiples are both at record levels at the same time.

2. Ken Griffin, Founder of Citadel
a. Thinks the Fed should move slowly in lowering interest rates to avoid the possibility of having to reverse course later.

3. John Rogers, Founder of Ariel Investments
a. Stock market is ripe for a correction
b. Relative to history, large-cap growth stocks like Nvidia are overpriced
c. AI investor enthusiasm is reminiscent of the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000.

For next week, most traders would be looking at whether the BoJ will be increasing interest rates. I have been trying to play this scenario but have not being able to find a suitable vehicle to play it. The various ETFs that I have looked at eg. EWV (Inverse 2x MSCI Japan), FXY (Long Yen), YCL (Long Yen 2x) are all thinly traded and can be easily manipulated. So I will probably have to skip this "opportunity".


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (30% from 38% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 62% (17 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 24% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$81 from US$78 last week from US$77 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$2159 from US$2186 from US$2092;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$23;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.12 from US$3.89 from US$3.86;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$91 from US$94 from US$95;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$66,646 from US$67,845 last week from US$62,478 two weeks ago @ 6.04 PM on March 17, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "70 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "77 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 5117 from 5124 last week from 5137 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance:
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Sold Baidu USD

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16721 from 16353 from 16589;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Added to AIA
d. Sold 1/3 Alibaba
e. Sold 2/3 Baidu
f. Sold 2/3 Tencent
g. Sold 2/3 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
h. Sold Sands China

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3055 from 3046 from 3027;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38708 from 39689 from 39911;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1553 from 1540 from 1538:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Traded CTOS
c. Sold Hume Cement


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 17 @ 5.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 149 from 147 last week from 150 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.52 from 3.53 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.66 from 0.67 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.09 from 1.10 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8217 from 7.8202 from 7.8162;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.70 from 4.69 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.34 from 1.33 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.20 from 7.19 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.06 from 102.52 last week from 104.10 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.31% from 4.08% from 4.19%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.73% from 4.48% from 4.53%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 94.35 from 94.66 from 94.42;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.08 from 77.38 from 77.18;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2374 from 2251 from 2203; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ March 24, 2024

Big picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

As the BoJ has exited "negative interest rates" and Powell has signaled 3 interest rates reduction for 2024, it's time to check on the "Big Picture" again.


1. Interest Rates:- The Feds will probably be reducing interest rates in the next few months for the following reasons:-
a. Things are rapidly slowing down in the US
b. The US government has a huge debt to service
c. The Democrats do not want a recession before the Nov. Election
I'm waiting to buy TLT and EMB


2. Inflation:- It should slowly decrease as "Consumer Demand" is decreasing. Hopefully, the following issues do not spiral out of control:-
a. Ukraine War
b. Israel-Gaza Conflict
c. Red Sea Houthi Conflict
d. Oil price increase


3. USD:- It may continue to be strong due to the elevated interest rates in the US. Once, there's a feeling that the Feds will start to reduce interest rates, the USD should slowly weaken from there. It looks like this would only occur around 2H 2024 now. I may buy some EMB as well as some Yen at that time thru FCY and YCL.


4. Commodities:- When the USD drops, Commodities would start to go up assuming that there's no sharp drop in "Demand". Till date, the demand from China has been quite sluggish though. I'm now watching Copper.


5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is continuing to add to the world's Liquidity. Japan may slowly withdraw some Liquidity while the Feds will probably be moderating their Quantitative Tightening.


6. Global Economy:- I'm expecting only a mild global recession in the coming months assuming that the Ukraine War and Israel Conflict, do not worsen from here. NZ and parts of Europe are already in a mild recession.

7. Ukraine War:- With the Israel Conflict and the US Debt Ceiling discussion, the US may force Ukraine to accept a truce especially if Trump becomes President again.

8. Market Sentiment:-
a. US: The "Magnificent Seven" has become "Magnificent Three" now. If the "Magnificent Three" suddenly collapses, then they would be bringing the indexes down with them.
b. China: The "National Team" will be supporting it.
c. HK: It's still a "Trading Market" and I must remind myself to behave as a "Trader" instead of a "Buy & Hold Investor'.

c. Japan: Some money may flow from Japan to HK & China.

9. US Earnings:- Forward guidance has been weak and some "experts" are saying that it could lead to a 10% to 15% drop in the US stock-markets. When the Nasdaq starts to drop sharply, I may buy some PSQ and SQQQ, at the 50% retracement, to short the Nasdaq market.

10. Trading Tactic:- I continue to buy on any steep drop and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement. In the meantime, I need to also watch my "Cash Level" as I need to survive till 2H 2024.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (38% from 38% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 11% (6 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$81 from US$81 last week from US$78 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
i. Vested in XLE (Energy ETF)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2167 from US$2159 from US$2186;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Lower. US$4.00 from US$4.12 from US$3.89;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$85 from US$91 from US$94;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$62,927 from US$66,646 last week from US$67845 two weeks ago @ 10.00 PM on March 22, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "72 Greed" from "70 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5234 from 5117 last week from 5124 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
g. Bought Lululemon (LULU)
h. Traded Prudential UK

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16499 from 16721 from 16353;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Mengniu
d. Added to Alibaba
e. Added to 3033 (HS Tech ETF)
f. Added to AIA
g. Added to JD
h. Added to Meituan
i. Traded Tencent
j. Traded China Overseas Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3048 from 3055 from 3046;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 40888 from 38708 from 39689;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1542 from 1553 from 1540:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 22 @ 9.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 151 from 149 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.53;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.08 from 1.09 from 1.10;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8209 from 7.8217 from 7.8202;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.74 from 4.70 from 4.69;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.35 from 1.34 from 1.33;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.23 from 7.20 from 7.19;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 103.93 from 103.06 last week from 102.52 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.20% from 4.31% from 4.08%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.60% from 4.73% from 4.48%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 95.26 from 94.35 from 94.66;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 77.80 from 77.08 from 77.38;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2240 from 2374 from 2251; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ March 29, 2024

New Money From The New Month

I'm updating my blog today as I will be involved with various Ching Ming activities over the next few days.

It's a new month again and there would be new money flowing into the markets again. Therefore, I'm expecting a spike in the markets early next week.

For the US markets, we are reaching new highs again. If there's a "flash crash" over the next few weeks, it could be a good buying opportunity as there are a lot of Cash on the sidelines as well as the Feds being in a position to reduce QT and to lower interest rates.

For the HK market, it's starting to be quite strong. It may be in the process of moving from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold Market". How I can tell is that some of the counters that I have sold, are now trading at a higher price than the price that I sold and it's quite difficult buying them back at a good price.

For the Malaysian market, I'm buying some of the Blue Chips whenever they dip.

For next week, I think that it would be the "same old, same old" situation. Anyway, I'm running around to a few places next week so will not have much time to trade next week.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (35% from 38% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 66% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 16% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$83 from US$81 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2255 from US$2167 from US$2159;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$25 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Flat. US$4.01 from US$4.00 from US$4.12;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$89 from US$85 from US$91;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$69,964 from US$62,927 last week from US$66,646 two weeks ago @ 5.00 PM on March 29, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "71 Greed" from "72 Greed" last week from "70 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Higher; 5254 from 5234 last week from 5117 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Traded Lululemon

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16541 from 16499 from 16721;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Overseas Properties
d. Added to China Mengniu
e. Sold 1/2 JD
f. Sold 2/3 Meituan
g. Sold China Overseas Land
h. Traded Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3041 from 3048 from 3055;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 40369 from 40888 from 38708;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1542 from 1553 from 1540:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought Hume Cement Industries
c. Bought Gamuda


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 29 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 151 from 151 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.50 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.09;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8260 from 7.8209 from 7.8217;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.73 from 4.74 from 4.70;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.34;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.22 from 7.23 from 7.20;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 104.27 from 103.93 last week from 103.06 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.21% from 4.20% from 4.31%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.63% from 4.60% from 4.73%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 95.20 from 95.26 from 94.35;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 77.73 from 77.80 from 77.08;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1821 from 2240 from 2374; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Apr 07, 2024

US: 1Q Earnings

The following are some info on the US 1Q Earnings from CNN Business:-
"US 1Q Earnings season kicks off next week with Delta Air Lines, Citigroup, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Analysts polled by FactSet expect first-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies to grow 3.1% from the prior year. That would mark the third straight quarter of earnings growth. Full-year profits are expected to swell 10.7%."

Presently, a lot of people are expecting the US 1Q Earnings Season to be the catalyst for the markets to go higher. Hence, they are trying to front-run the earnings announcement.

As for myself, I'm still a bit careful with the US markets. If there's a sharp drop due to poor earnings announcement, I may try to bottom-fish for the small rebound. However, it really depends on the situation and whether there's any catalyst for sustainable rebound.

As for the HK market, I'm continuing to trade it. Nowadays, I also look at where the Call Prices of the Leveraged Warrants are. If the Call Prices are crowded at a certain level of the Hang Seng Index, then there's a strong incentive for the warrant issuers, to try to move the Hang Seng index towards that Call Price level, to suspend that leveraged warrant.

Anyway, I believe that the trend for HK & China is up as the National Team is continuously supporting the market. Therefore, I continue to buy any Blue Chip on any sharp dip and to try to sell it at the 1/3 rebound.

For next week, I'm not expecting much from the markets until the start of the US Earnings Season.


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (40% from 35% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 67% (18 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 18% (5 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 15% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$87 from US$83 last week from US$81 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2349 from US$2255 from US$2167;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$28 from US$25 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.24 from US$4.01 from US$4.00;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Lower; US$87 from US$89 from US$85;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$67,935 from US$69,964 last week from US$62,927 two weeks ago @ 1.10 PM on Apr 6, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "61 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 5204 from 5254 last week from 5234 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 16724 from 16541 from 16499;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought China Oilfields
d. Bought Netease
e. Added to JD
f. Sold China Overseas Properties

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3069 from 3041 from 3048;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 38992 from 40369 from 40888;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1555 from 1542 from 1553:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 06 @ 1.22 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 152 from 151 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.52 from 3.50 from 3.51;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.08 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8285 from 7.8260 from 7.8209;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.75 from 4.73 from 4.74;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.35 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.23 from 7.22 from 7.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 104.07 from 104.27 last week from 103.93 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.40 % from 4.21% from 4.20%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.75% from 4.63% from 4.60%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.92 from 95.20 from 95.26;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.81 from 77.73 from 77.80;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1628 from 1821 from 2240; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Apr 14, 2024

sell in may.jpeg

Sell Before May & Go Away?

The S&P 500 has broken thru the 20 day EMA of 5180 and the "experts" are saying that it's now on the way to 4700.

Hence, these "experts" are now asking people to sell instead of waiting for May (a traditional weak period as the traders are away for their Summer holidays).

Anyway, if there's a sharp dive in the US, I think that only the Indices and the "Magnificent Three or Four" would be severely affected. The rest of the market have not really gone anywhere so will probably not dive as much. That does not mean that the rest of the market will not drop 10% to 15% when the margin calls hit the fan. However, it would not be the "apocalypse" as predicted by some of these "experts".

And if there's a severe dive, I think that it would also be "V-Shaped" because of the following:-
1. There's about US$8t on the sidelines. About half of these money could re-enter the markets if there's a sharp dive and especially if they reduce interest rates quickly.
2. There's also about US$2t of "dry powder" from Quantitative Tightening
3. They can also throw some "helicopter money" later as in 2010 (US$16t split equally between the Feds, ECB, PBOC and BoJ).

Intuitively, I think that the Feds will be doing their best to keep things stable for the rest of the year. It's a "Presidential Election" year and they dont want to have a major recession just before the election.

At the same time, any of the "Black Swan" or "Grey Rhino" event can explode and snowball eg. Ukraine War, Middle East Conflict (Israel, Hamas, Iran) etc.

On a "Risk vs Reward" basis, I still think that the HK market is still a better bet. The China government is doing it's best to reflate the China Economy and they are also saying the "right things". So i will continue to buy on any dips in HK and then try to sell at the 1/3 retracement.

For a while, I thought that HK & China was moving from a "Trading Market" to a "Buy & Hold" one. However, the HK market actions this week, proved me wrong again.

For next week, I will be watching the following:-
1. US: Earning Announcements. If any of the US Blue Chips drop by say 20%, depending on the situation, I may pick it up for a quick trade
2. HK: Baidu AI Developers Day on Apr 16 & 17.
3. IMF Meeting: April 17 to 19
4. Iran & Israel Conflict

This morning, Israel launched some missiles and drones towards Israel. Intuitively, I do not think that this will escalate from here. There could be some knee jerk reaction at the opening of Asia trading and I think that it could be a good time to buy on the dive.

I dont think that this episode will escalate into a full scale nuclear war. Even if it does, the world will not spinning. Maybe only another tilted axis.

Finally, I need to also remind myself to be a bit careful. The market actions this week proved that things can go sideways very quickly especially with AI and Program Trading. (The US markets did dropped 25% in October 1987 due to program trading).


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (41% from 40% last week from 35% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 64% (19 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 22% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), KWEB, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$85 from US$87 last week from US$83 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2360 from US$2349 from US$2255;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Flat; US$28 from US$28 from US$25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.32 from US$4.24 from US$4.01;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Higher; US$89 from US$87 from US$89;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$70,777 from US$67,935 last week from US$69,964 two weeks ago @ 7.38 PM on Apr 12, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "61 Greed" from "71 Greed" last week from "72 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 5204 from 5254 last week from 5234 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)

2. HK Equities - Flat. 16722 from 16724 from 16541;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 16400; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Ping An
d. Added to AIA
e. Added to Baidu
f. Traded Alibaba
g. Traded Netease
h. Traded JD
i. Traded Bud Asia Pacific
j. Sold 1/2 HS Tech ETF (3033)
k. Sold China Oilfields

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3019 from 3069 from 3041;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Higher; 39524 from 38992 from 40369;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1551 from 1555 from 1542:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 12 @ 7.45 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 153 from 152 last week from 151 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 152
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.51 from 3.52 from 3.50;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8369 from 7.8285 from 7.8260;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.77 from 4.75 from 4.73;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.36 from 1.35 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.24 from 7.23 from 7.22;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.64 from 104.07 last week from 104.27 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.52% from 4.40 % from 4.21%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.89% from 4.75% from 4.63%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 93.45 from 93.92 from 95.20;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 76.41 from 76.81 from 77.73;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1690 from 1628 from 1821; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful. Everything on the website is free. It's our way of giving something back to society.

[winston]

TOL @ Apr 21, 2024

Buy Sell Hold.jpeg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

The markets were weak this week and a lot of people are wondering whether they should Sell, Hold or Buy?

The Sellers were talking about:-
1. WW3 from either the Ukraine War or the Middle East conflict
2. High debts and elevated prolonged interest rates
3. Stagflation
etc.

The Holders were talking about:-
1. The expansion of the current AI rally
2. The Presidential Election Year
3. The still strong US Economy
etc.

The Buyers were talking about:-
1. The eventual drop in inflation and interest rates
2. The improving Global Economy especially China's
3. The reasonable valuation of "ex-Magnificent Seven" equities
etc.

As for myself, I'm betting that the Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate into WW3. Hence, I think that it's still a "Trading Market" especially in HK. And even if they do lob 5 nuclear warheads at each other, I think that the world will still continue to spin and that my life would still not be affected by it.

However, the US markets were quite weak and some " TA experts" are saying that it has another 5% downwards to go ie. 4700 on the S&P 500.

As for Shanghai, I think that the National Team" would "always" be supporting the market at 3000. (The SSE did mysteriously rise after touching 3007 on Tuesday)

For HK, whenever the "National Team" supports the China market, there would be some spill-over effect into HK. However, the CBBC issuers seems to be still in control of the HK market.

The bias for HK now seems to be upwards after the recent drop to about 16200 where there are a lot of Callable Bull Contracts with "strike prices" till that 16,200 level.

For next week, we have the NPC Meeting in China from Apr 23 to 26. Hence, I dont see the China market being weak. Therefore, HK would probably be not weak either unless there's a crash in the US market which I'm not expecting.

I think that the HK CBBC issuers will set 16,800 as their next stop as there are now a lot of Callable Bear Contracts with "strike prices' to that 16,800 level. (BTW, I've actually used up all my HKD this week and have to transfer money twice this week into my HKD account, as I have been aggressively buying HK equities this week).


Risk Management Progress:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (43% from 41% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 65% (21 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 21% (6 Counters); Large Caps & ETFs @ Time Difference Risk
d. Malaysia: 14% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" from around the current 33%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to China Tech eg. 3033 (China Tech ETF), KWEB, Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD, Meituan, Sensetime, Smoore, etc.
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$83 from US$85 last week from US$87 two weeks ago;
Support: US$67 (Jun 2023), US$17 (Mar 2020); Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak China Demand
b. Saudi Instability? King Salman is 87 years old
c. Russia produced about 11m bpd. About 4m of Supply could be affected.
d. SPR: Inventories -60%; Released 25% (180 m barrels); 372m barrels left; Replenishing 1.2m @ US$78;
e. OPEC+: Cut 5m bpd (5% Global Demand)
f. Saudi: Extending 1m bpd cut till March 2024
g. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
h. Russia: Cut 500k bpd (from 300k) till March 2024
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$2407 from US$2360 from US$2349;
Support: 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 2233; 2700;
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher; US$29 from US$28 from US$28;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar
c. Monitoring SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80
.
4. Copper - Higher. US$4.49 from US$4.32 from US$4.24;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 4.75;
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years for operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium - Flat; US$89 from US$89 from US$87;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$63,652 from US$70,777 last week from US$67,935 two weeks ago @ 7.41 AM on Apr 20, 2024
a. Record: $69,000 Nov 2021; Support: $8300;
b. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)7
c. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
d. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction;
e. Not vested
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "31 Fear" from "61 Greed" last week from "71 Greed" two weeks ago.
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=9

1. US Equities - Lower; 4967 from 5204 last week from 5254 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 5180; 4800; 3850; 3600; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 5350
b. S&P 500: PE 22; Forward PE 21; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 151; >140 is Expensive
e. Nasdaq PE 23; Forward PE 27; Average 19
f. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 45
h. Bought KWEB (China Internet ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 16224 from 16722 from 16724;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 17100; 19500; 24000; 31200;
c. Bought Sands China
d. Bought Galaxy
e. Bought Zhaojin
f. Added to HS Tech ETF (3033)
g. Sold Ping An

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3065 from 3019 from 3069;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF) & 2822 (A50 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300; Forward PE 11
e. No Trade

4. Japan Equities - Lower; 37068 from 39524 from 38992;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 33800; 38960
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Recession? Stagflation?
d. No trade

5. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1548 from 1551 from 1555:
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Support: 1369; 1210; Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
b. Bought MRCB


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Apr 19 @ 2.55 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 154 from 153 last week from 152 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 154
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.51 from 3.51 from 3.52;
Resistance: 3.54;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.66 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.06 from 1.07 from 1.08;
a. Avoided Energy Crisis?
b. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
c. Monitorinbg FEZ
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8314 from 7.8369 from 7.8285;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.78 from 4.77 from 4.75;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.75
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.36 from 1.36 from 1.35;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.24 from 7.24 from 7.23;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 105.97 from 105.64 last week from 104.07
two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Supportive Programs
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2018 prices
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.62% from 4.52% from 4.40%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.99% from 4.89% from 4.75%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Inverted; Recession Indicator
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 92.84 from 93.45 from 93.92;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 75.86 from 76.41 from 76.81;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1901 from 1690 from 1628; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Inflation:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6950&start=11

Health:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
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