Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - May 19)

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:35 pm

TOL @ Nov 12, 2017

Trading Break

The US Markets have not been going anywhere for the past two weeks so I think it's time to remind myself to take a trading break.

I recalled reading somewhere that trading everyday begins to dull one's judgement. In addition, if one's mental efficency drops to 90%, one begins to only breakeven only. And anything below that, one starts to lose money.

It's recommended that one should take a trading break every 5 to 6 weeks.

Taking a trading break allows one to take a detached view of the market and gives one a fresh look. Sometimes, one is so close to the forest that one cannot see the trees.


Trades for the week:-
a. Sold Standard Chartered (0288) listed in HK
b. Sold Ekovest listed in KL
c. Sold Genting Malaysia listed in KL
d. Sold JD.com listed in US
e. Sold XAR (Aerospace & Defence) listed in US

I have increased the Geopolitical Risk to 9 from 8, in view of what's happening in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.


Market Risk Indicators; Reduced Geopolitical Risk and Recession Risk;
1. Euphoria: 9 (Low: 1; High: 10) - FAANNG, ETFs; Margin Debts; SWFs; Central Banks; Fund Flows;
2. Credit Problems: 7 (Very Good: 1; Very Bad: 10) - Housing, Subprime Auto; Student Loans; Credit Cards; Junk Bonds
3. Recession: 6 (Strong Economy: 1; Depression: 10) - GDP; Taxes; PMI; Housing; Auto; Retail; NAFTA; 2019?
4. Liquidity: 7 (Very Liquid: 1; Tight 10) - QE (Feds, ECB, BOJ, PBOC); Interest Rates; Rotation (Bonds); Asset Shrinkage 2018?;
5. Inverted Yield: 6 (Low Inversion: 1; High Inversion: 10) - Rising Interest Rates; Slope; Inversion; US 10 Years < US 2 Years; Expecting 2019 to 2020
6. Valuation; 8 (Safe: PE15; Danger: PE30) - PE S&P 24, Nadsaq 26; Revenue; USD; Tax Reform; Deregulation
7. Geopolitical Issues: 9 (Peaceful: 1; War: 10) - NKorea (Sep 9, Feb 8); Syria; Iran; Qatar, Afghanistan; South China Sea; Europe; Venezuela; Saudi Arabia; Lebanon
Total: 52 out of 70 (74%); (Safe: 50%; Danger: 80%)


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. Oil - Higher. US$56.88 from US$55.73 last week from US$53.81 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 220m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; 3 months extension on May25?; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: Disruption of 2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1275 from US$1271 from US$1265. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.88 from US$16.85 from US$16.74; Vested PSLV
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$931 from US$923 from US$917; Vested PPLT
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3216 from US$3208 from US$3168
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
7. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Lower. 2582 from 2588 last week from 2581 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Sold JD.com
c. Sold XAR (Aerospace & Defence)
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 29121 from 28601 from 28439
a. Support: 26900; 26450; 25000; Resistance: 28800;
b. Sold Standard Chartered (0288)
c. htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3433 from 3372 from 3416
a. Support at 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. No trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 22681 from 22539 from 22008
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1742 from 1741
a. Sold Ekovest
b. Sold Genting Malaysia
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30

Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 114.13 from 113.68 last week from 114.14 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.1078 from 3.1080 from 3.0961
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.7665 from 0.7665 from 0.7643
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.0437 from 1.0438 from 1.0471
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.2437 from 3.2434 from 3.2418
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Flat. 0.5862 from 0.5862 from 0.5836
a. Converted some AUD to GBP; 30% rise in 2 years; Diversification

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Flat. 0.6585 from 0.6584 from 0.6582

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1664 from 1.1641 from 1.1613
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Weaker; 4.8876 from 4.9259 from 4.9254

10. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8033 from 7.8030 from 7.8038
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.2316 from 4.2436 from 4.2414
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Decoupling of the MYR and Oil?
d. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
e. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3616 from 1.3649 from 1.3699
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Expecting the SGD to drop against the USD over the next few years
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.6273 from 6.6491 from 6.6529
a. Expecting the CNY to continue dropping against the USD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3190 from 1.3076 from 1.3096
a. Will not be investing in the GBP versus the USD, as I think that it's in a multi-year decline
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.5267 from 5.5335 from 5.5545
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 94.39 from 94.78 from 94.96
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Properties

a. Spore Properties: No longer monitoring on a weekly basis
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=40

b. Malaysia Properties: No longer monitoring on a weekly basis
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=150

c. China Properties: No longer monitoring on a weekly basis
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=30J

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.40% from 2.33% last week from 2.41% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

7. Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.65% from 1.61% from 1.59%

8. Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. US Feds: Rate Hike in Dec 2017? Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

9. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.68 from 37.00 last week from 37.23 two weeks ago

10. Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1481 from 1496 last week from 1546 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

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viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:28 pm

TOL @ Nov 19, 2017

Cautiously Bearish?

Bearish.jpg


The US Markets have been weak for the past three weeks.

In addition, we are have the following warning signs:-
1. The US Feds are increasing rates slowly
2. The US Feds are no longer buying new bonds when the existing ones matured
3. Leadership Reversals ie number of shares hitting new lows exceed new highs
4. High Yield Bonds are falling
5. Hinderburg Omen
6. Titanic Syndrome
7. Yield Curves flattening and on their way to be inverted
8. High Market Sentiment
9. High Valauation
10. Reduction in tax collections

At the same time, there's still some Liquidity on the sidelines, so the Sellers can occassionally try to "Pump and Dump" their holdings.

Anyway, I think that the US Markets will correct latest in early January 2018 and sooner, if Tax Reforms cannot be passed in the next few weeks. So maybe it's time to be cautiously bearish.

Trades for the week:-
1. Bought Petrochina listed in HK
2. Traded Genting Malaysia in Malaysia
3. Sold 1/3 Stamford land in Singapore

Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. Oil - Lower. US$56.64 from US$56.88 last week from US$55.73 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 220m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; 3 months extension on May25?; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: Disruption of 2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1294 from US$1275 from US$1271. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$17.30 from US$16.88 from US$16.85; Vested PSLV
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$954 from US$931 from US$923; Vested PPLT
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3182 from US$3216 from US$3208
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
7. The High USD is not good for Commodities

Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Lower. 2579 from 2582 last week from 2588 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 29199 from 29121 from 28601
a. Support: 26900; 26450; 25000; Resistance: ?
b. Bought Petrochina (0857)
c. htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3383 from 3433 from 3372
a. Support at 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. No trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - Sold 1/3 Stamford Land
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 22397 from 22681 from 22539
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1722 from 1742 from 1741
a. Traded Genting Malaysia
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 112.05 from 114.13 last week from 113.68 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0694 from 3.1078 from 3.1080
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.7571 from 0.7665 from 0.7665
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0267 from 1.0437 from 1.0438
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.1512 from 3.2437 from 3.2434
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Weaker. 0.5728 from 0.5862 from 0.5862

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Weaker. 0.6421 from 0.6585 from 0.6584

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1791 from 1.1664 from 1.1641
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.9079 from 4.8876 from 4.9259

10. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8107 from 7.8033 from 7.8030
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1623 from 4.2316 from 4.2436
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Decoupling of the MYR and Oil?
d. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
e. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3561 from 1.3616 from 1.3649
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Expecting the SGD to drop against the USD over the next few years
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.6267 from 6.6273 from 6.6491
a. Expecting the CNY to continue dropping against the USD
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3216 from 1.3190 from 1.3076
a. Will not be investing in the GBP versus the USD, as I think that it's in a multi-year decline
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.5009 from 5.5267 from 5.5335
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 93.66 from 94.39 from 94.78
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.34% from 2.40% last week from 2.33% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

7. Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.72% from 1.65% from 1.61%

8. Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. US Feds: Rate Hike in Dec 2017? Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
d. peru cuts interest rate from 3.5% to 3.25%
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

9. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.79 from 36.68 last week from 37.00 two weeks ago

10. Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1371 from 1481 last week from 1496 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

11. Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore
b. HDGE (Ranger Bear Equity) listed in US
c. SPXS (S&P Inverse 3x) listed in US


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Nov 26, 2017 8:52 am

TOL @ Nov 26, 2017

Buying The Dip

buy-the-dip.jpg


The Chinese market corrected quite a bit on Thursday and I went shopping. The following are the stocks that I managed to pick up and my reasons for doing so:-

1. A50 (2822 China ETF) listed in HK
a. Expecting the National Team to continuosly support the market through the A50
b. From May 2018, there would be the passive inflows from the MSCI reweighting.
c. Support: $12. Initial Target: 18.50
d. Risk: Already risen about 33% in 6 months from the support of $12.

2. Bought Petrochina (0857) listed in HK
a. Expecting Oil to continue rising on hopes of the supply cuts extension on Nov 30.
b. Supply at Veneuzeula is down 250,000 bpd.
c. If Venezeula implodes, global supply would be reduced by 2m bpd
d. Continued tensions in the Middle East (Lebanon, Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia)
e. Chose Petrochina over CNOOC, for the stability from it's refining business.
f. Yield 1.2%
g. A Share: HK$9.80 ( 45% Discount)
h. Support: $5.00; Target: 5.60; 6.20; 10.00
i. Risk: Oil reserves falling; Electric Vehicles quota

3. Bought BBMG (2009) listed in HK
a, Cement supplier for the buiding of Xiong An, the new city.
b. It's low cost housing would provide some stability.
c. PE 13; Yield 1.4%
d. A share: HK$6.80 (46% Discount)
e. Support: 3.20; 2.70; Target: 4.40; 4.80
f. Risk: Already risen about 40% from Jan 2017 support of $2.60 2.30;

4. Bought Fosun (0656) listed in HK
a. Well-run private company
b. PE 13; Yield 1.2%
c. Support: 12.00; Target: 20.00; 24.00 (20% discount to RNAV of 32.00)
d. Risk: Already risen about 40% from it's support of 12.00 in Sep 2017; Venturing into high risk business that they do not understand eg. Reinsurance.

5. Bought CR Phoenix Healthcare (1515) listed in HK
a. Largest hospital group in China (106 hospitals)
b. Expecting more M&As in 2018
c. Injection of hospitals from parent, China Resources group,
d. Insiders buying
e. Forward PE 16; Yield 0.6%
f. Support: 9.50; 6.50; Target: 10.00; 10.70; 14.00
g. Risk: New Management; CEO is not from Healthcare Industry

6. Traded MMG (1208) listed in HK

At this point in time, I intend to hold the above positions for a while. However, if the Chinese markets continue to fall, I may have to revisit my position and cut my losses at about 7%.

Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. Oil - Higher. US$58.97 from US$56.64 last week from US$56.88 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 220m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; 3 months extension on May25?; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1288 from US$1294 from US$1275. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$17.01 from US$17.30 from US$16.88; Vested PSLV
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$945 from US$954 from US$931; Vested PPLT
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3234 from US$3182 from US$3216
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
7. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2602 from 2579 last week from 2582 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 29866 from 29199 from 29121
a. Support: 28850; 26900; Resistance: 30500
b. Bought Petrochina (0857)
c. Bought BBMG (2009)
d. Bought Fosun (0656)
e. Bought CR Phoenix Healthcare (1515)
f. Traded MMG (1208)
g. htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3354 from 3383 from 3433
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Bought A50 (2822 China ETF) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 22551 from 22397 from 22681
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1717 from 1722 from 1742
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 111.43 from 112.05 last week from 114.13 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population; High Debt Ratio;
c. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0694 from 3.1078 from 3.1080
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7622 from 0.7571 from 0.7665
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0262 from 1.0267 from 1.0437
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.1395 from 3.1512 from 3.2437
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Weaker. 0.5720 from 0.5728 from 0.5862

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Flat. 0.6421 from 0.6421 from 0.6585

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1791 from 1.1664 from 1.1641
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.9079 from 4.8876 from 4.9259

10. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8084 from 7.8107 from 7.8033
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.1190 from 4.1623 from 4.2316
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3467 from 1.3561 from 1.3616
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.6052 from 6.6267 from 6.6273
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3326 from 1.3216 from 1.3190
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4890 from 5.5009 from 5.5267
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 93.05 from 93.66 from 94.39
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.34% from 2.34% last week from 2.40% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.74% from 1.72% from 1.65%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. US Feds: Rate Hike in Dec 2017? Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.99 from 36.79 last week from 36.68 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1458 from 1371 last week from 1481 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore
b. HDGE (Ranger Bear Equity) listed in US
c. SPXS (S&P Inverse 3x) listed in US


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:26 pm

TOL @ Dec 03, 2017

Dec.jpg


New Money From The New Month

New Money From New Month of December

It's a new month again and new money would be flowing into the markets again.

Therefore, we should have one spike in the markets next week, unless the Fund Managers have already spent their existing Cash in advance, last Thursday.

Anyway, it looks like Tax Reform may be going through but that could be neutralized by the Debt Limit discussion and the Mueller investigation.

However, we are also touching Window Dressing time although I think that it may be quite muted as it has been a very good year.

In China, it looks like they are trying to deleverage eg. clamping down on micro-financing. In addition, Circular 46 states that all accounting bad debts must be reversed by November 30, 2017.

In view of the above, I have raised my Cash levels again as I'm not very comfortable investing in these markets.

At the same time, I have also been day-trading Bear Put Warrants on the Hang Seng.


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$58.30 from US$58.97 last week from US$56.64 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1280 from US$1288 from US$1294. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$16.36 from US$17.01 last week from US$17.30; Vested PSLV
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$941 from US$945 from US$954; Vested PPLT
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3244 from US$3234 from US$3182
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
7. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2642 from 2602 last week from 2579 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 29074 from 29866 from 29199
a. Support: 28850; 26900; Resistance: 30500
b. Traded Petrochina (0857)
c. Sold BBMG (2009)
d. Sold Fosun (0656)
e. Traded CR Phoenix Healthcare (1515)
f. htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3318 from 3354 from 3383
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Sold A50 (2822 China ETF) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 22819 from 22551 from 22397
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Flat; 1718 from 1717 from 1722
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 111.48 from 111.43 last week from 112.05 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population; High Debt Ratio;
c. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0375 from 3.0694 from 3.1078
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.7573 from 0.7622 from 0.7571
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0202 from 1.0262 from 1.0267
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.0988 from 3.1395 from 3.1512
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Weaker. 0.5610 from 0.5720 from 0.5728

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Weaker. 0.6363 from 0.6421 from 0.6421

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1898 from 1.1791 from 1.1664
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Weaker; 4.8682 from 4.9079 from 4.8876

10. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8053 from 7.8084 from 7.8107
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0851 from 4.1190 from 4.1623
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3448 from 1.3467 from 1.3561
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.5987 from 6.6052 from 6.6267
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3498 from 1.3326 from 1.3216
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4890 from 5.5009 from 5.5267
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 93.05 from 93.66 from 94.39
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.36% from 2.34% last week from 2.34% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.77% from 1.74% from 1.72%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. US Feds: Rate Hike in Dec 2017? Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
d. Korea raised interest rates by 25bps to 1.5%
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.75 from 36.99 last week from 36.79 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1578 from 1458 last week from 1371 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore
b. HDGE (Ranger Bear Equity) listed in US
c. SPXS (S&P Inverse 3x) listed in US


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:54 pm

Window Dressing?

Window Dressing.jpg


It's the time of the year where the US markets are expected to rise due to Window Dressing activities.

So will we get a strong rally this year or will the Window Dressing activities be quite muted as it has been a very good year?

Intuitively, I think that Window Dressing activities will be quite muted unless we get a crash between now and Dec 31st.

However, if you are sitting on a big US loser, you may want to be aware of tax-loss selling before December 31st.

On the horizon, we have the US Feds Meeting where everyone is expecting them to raise rates by 25 bps as well as the ongoing Debt Limit discussions before Dec 22nd.

As for Asia, I'm seriously looking at having some exposure to Japan since their government is continuosly supporting it. However, it has ran up about 30% from around 18,200 to 23,400. (It's around 22800 now, implying a 3% correction from the top but has risen about 2.75% over the past two trading sessions).

With regards to China, the deleveraging exercise is a concern but could be a buying opportunity later. The A50 seems to be strong for the year but the CSI is not that great. It looks like the National Team is supporting the market through the A50.

Finally, I still cant find anything that I really like in Singapore nor Malaysia.

Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$57.34 from US$58.30 last week from US$58.97 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$60; US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Lower. US$1250 from US$1280 from US$1288. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Lower. US$15.88 from US$16.36 from US$17.01
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Lower; US$888 from US$941 from US$945
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Lower; US$3089 from US$3244 from US$3234
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Uranium - Higher; US$26.50
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years


6. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
7. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2652 from 2642 last week from 2602 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Bought Nividia
c. Bought Sina
d Sold 1/2 Cameco
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28640 from 29074 from 29866
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 30500
b. Sold Petrochina (0857)
c. Sold BBMG (2009)
d. Sold China Mobike (0941)
e. Sold CR Phoenix Healthcare (1515)
f. Sold Tencent (0700)
f. htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3290 from 3318 from 3354
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities
a. Sold 1/2 Stamford Land
b. Sold Yanlord Land
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 22811 from 22819 from 22551
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1721 from 1718 from 1717
a. Sold Supermax
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 112.38 from 111.48 last week from 111.43 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population; High Debt Ratio;
c. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0371 from 3.0375 from 3.0694
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.7507 from 0.7573 from 0.7622
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0159 from 1.0202 from 1.0262
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.0680 from 3.0988 from 3.1395
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Weaker. 0.5573 from 0.5610 from 0.5720

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Stronger. 0.6394 from 0.6363 from 0.6421

8. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1739 from 1.1898 from 1.1791
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Weaker; 4.7975 from 4.8682 from 4.9079

10. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8114 from 7.8053 from 7.8084
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.0916 from 4.0851 from 4.1190
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3472 from 1.3448 from 1.3467
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.6093 from 6.5987 from 6.6052
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.3474 from 1.3498 from 1.3326
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.5057 from 5.4890 from 5.5009
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 93.99 from 93.05 from 93.66
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.38% from 2.36% last week from 2.34% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.79% from 1.77% from 1.74%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. US Feds: Rate Hike in Dec 2017? Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.76 from 36.75 last week from 36.99 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1679 from 1578 last week from 1458 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore
b. HDGE (Ranger Bear Equity) listed in US
c. SPXS (S&P Inverse 3x) listed in US


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:44 pm

TOL @ Dec 17, 2017

Santa Rally?

Santa Rally.jpg


It's that time of the year where stocks should be going up due to Window Dressing. So will it be different this year ?

Intuitively, I think that the traditional Santa Rally would be a bit muted this year as it has been a strong year for Equities.

In addition, there's also the Tax Reform and Debt Ceiling issues and either one can derail the rally if not passed.

I'm also worried about the US tax loss selling before Dec 31st.

Thereafter, on Jan 2nd, we could also see a wave of profit taking from those Americans who would be paying lower Capital Gains Tax, if Tax Reform does go through.

In view of the above, I'm reminding myself to raise some Cash before December 31st and not be too adventurous with any new purchases.


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$57.34 from US$57.34 last week from US$58.30 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$60; US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1258 from US$1250 from US$1280. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.11 from US$15.88 from US$16.36
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$894 from US$888 from US$941
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3206 from US$3089 from US$3244
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - US$3.14
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Lower; US$24.90 from US$26.50
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2676 from 2652 last week from 2642 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Sold 1/2 Nividia
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28848 from 28640 from 29074
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 30500
b. Traded Petrochina (0857)
c. Bought China Mobile (0941)
d. Bought Ping An (2318)
e. Bought Zijin (2899)
f. Bought Fosun (0656)
g. htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 3266 from 3290 from 3318
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Bought A50 (2822) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 22553 from 22811 from 22819
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1753 from 1721 from 1718
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 112.16 from 112.38 last week from 111.48 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population; High Debt Ratio;
c. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0286 from 3.0371 from 3.0375
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7677 from 0.7507 from 0.7573
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.0340 from 1.0159 from 1.0202
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.1318 from 3.0680 from 3.0988
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Stronger. 0.5727 from 0.5573 from 0.5610

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Stronger. 0.6503 from 0.6394 from 0.6363

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1798 from 1.1739 from 1.1898
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8132 from 4.7975 from 4.8682

10. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8121 from 7.8114 from 7.8053
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0795 from 4.0823 from 4.0916
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3461 from 1.3472 from 1.3448
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.6092 from 6.6093 from 6.5987
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.3399 from 1.3474 from 1.3498
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4663 from 5.5057 from 5.4890
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 93.49 from 93.99 from 93.05
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.35% from 2.38% last week from 2.36% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.84% from 1.79% from 1.77%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
d. Russia cuts interest rates by 50 bps to 7.75% from 8.25%
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.70 from 36.76 last week from 36.75 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1668 from 1679 last week from 1578 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Vested in the following Inverse ETFs:-
a. DBXT S&P Inverse 1x ETF listed in Singapore
b. HDGE (Ranger Bear Equity) listed in US
c. SPXS (S&P Inverse 3x) listed in US


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Dec 24, 2017 8:14 pm

Stock Market Correction on January 2, 2018?

Correction.jpg


The US Tax Reform has been passed and the "experts" are now saying that the US markets should go higher as it's valuation is now lower.

In theory, that should be the case but I think that there could be some profit-taking on Jan 2, 2018. A lot of US investors are sitting on good capital gains and they are not selling now because they would be paying less Capital Gains Tax on Jan 2, 2018.

In addition, Liquidity is starting to decrease in the US, from higher interest rates, as well as the US Feds not rolling over some of the bonds that have matured.

In view of the above, I have sold most of my US stocks and will probably not buy any new ones until after early January, unless there's a very good story.

As for my HK and China stocks, I have also sold most of them, as we are seeing Deleveraging, Higher Interest Rates and Higher Debts in China. In addition, the inflows from the MSCI rebalancing is still quite far away (around May 2018).

With regards to my Singapore stocks, I still have some "legacy" stocks and am still waiting for the right time to get rid of them.

As for my Malaysian stocks, I have also sold most of them.


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$58.41 from US$57.34 last week from US$57.34 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$60; US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1279 from US$1258 from US$1250. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.45 from US$16.11 from US$15.88
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$923 from US$894 from US$888
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3266 from US$3206 from US$3089
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - US$3.25 from US$3.14
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Lower; US$24.15 from US$24.90 from US$26.50
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2683 from 2676 last week from 2652 2642 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Sold Nividia
c. Sold SINA
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 29578 from 28848 from 28640
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 30500
b. Sold China Mobile (0941)
c. Sold Ping An (2318)
d. Sold Zijin (2899)
e. Sold Fosun (0656)
f. Bought Cosco Shipping (1919)
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3297 from 3266 from 3290
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
b. Sold A50 (2822) listed in HK
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities - No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 22903 from 22553 from 22811
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1760 from 1753 from 1721
a. Bought Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 113.36 from 112.16 last week from 112.38 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population; High Debt Ratio;
c. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0346 from 3.0286 from 3.0371
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7720 from 0.7677 from 0.7507
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.0376 from 1.0340 from 1.0159
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.1486 from 3.1318 from 3.0680
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Stronger. 0.5771 from 0.5727 from 0.5573

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Stronger. 0.6512 from 0.6503 from 0.6394

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1814 from 1.1798 from 1.1739
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8349 from 4.8132 from 4.7975

10. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8176 from 7.8121 from 7.8114
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0790 from 4.0795 from 4.0823
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3440 from 1.3461 from 1.3472
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.5753 from 6.6092 from 6.6093
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker. 1.3375 from 1.3399 from 1.3474
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4555 from 5.4663 from 5.5057
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 93.35 from 93.49 from 93.99
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Others

1. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.48% from 2.35% last week from 2.38% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

2. Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.89% from 1.84% from 1.79%

3. Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

4. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower; 36.63 from 36.70 last week from 36.76 two weeks ago

5. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - 87.00

6. Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1430 from 1668 last week from 1679 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:30 pm

New Monthly Money VS Jan 2nd Tax Selling

Bulls Bears.jpg


It will soon be a new month and new money would be flowing into the markets again . Normally, we would see a spike early in the new month.

However, we would be encountering some US Tax Profit-Taking this time. This are from the people that did not take their profits in 2017 and they would now be paying lower US Capital Gains Tax when they sell in 2018.

I think that the Tax Profit-Taking would be a much bigger force so we may not see a spike next week.

And if the Selling is steep, it may be time to go shopping, as I think that it would be a temporary issue.

Anyway, it's very difficult to sit on a lot of Cash and I have bought the following this week:-
1. Citic Resources 1205 listed in HK
2. Wheelock listed in Singapore
3. Hotel Properties Limited in Singapore
4. Gamuda Warrants listed in Malaysia

I will probably be staggering my buying over the next two weeks.

Scanning the horizon, we have the Debt Limit Discussions (Jan 19, 2018), although I'm not expecting much from this issue.

Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$58.41 from US$57.34 last week from US$57.34 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$60; US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1279 from US$1258 from US$1250. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$16.45 from US$16.11 from US$15.88
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$923 from US$894 from US$888
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3266 from US$3206 from US$3089
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - US$3.25 from US$3.14
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Lower; US$24.15 from US$24.90 from US$26.50
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years


8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2683 from 2676 last week from 2652 2642 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Sold Nividia
c. Sold SINA
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 29919 from 29578 from 28848
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: 30500
b. Bought Citic Resources 1205
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3307 from 3297 from 3266
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities
a. Bought Hotel Properties Limited
b. Bought Wheelock
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 22765 from 22903 from 22553
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1797 from 1760 from 1753
a. Added to Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 112.48 from 113.36 last week from 112.16 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population; High Debt Ratio;
c. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0346 from 3.0286 from 3.0371
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7822 from 0.7720 from 0.7677
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.0449 from 1.0376 from 1.0340
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.1741 from 3.1486 from 3.1318
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Stronger. 0.5788 from 0.5771 from 0.5727

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Stronger. 0.6524 from 0.6512 from 0.6503

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1992 from 1.1814 from 1.1798
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8677 from 4.8349 from 4.8132

10. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.8152 from 7.8176 from 7.8121
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 4.0591 from 4.0790 from 4.0795
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3358 from 1.3440 from 1.3461
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.5073 from 6.5753 from 6.6092
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3516 from 1.3375 from 1.3399
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Stronger. 5.4867 from 5.4555 from 5.4663
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 92.27 from 93.35 from 93.49
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.41% from 2.48% last week from 2.35% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasurues - Higher; 1.88% from 1.89% from 1.84%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.72 from 36.63 last week from 36.70 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.26 from 87.00 last week

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1366 from 1430 last week from 1668 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 118522
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:05 pm

TOL @Jan 07, 2018

liquidity.jpg


Liquidity

The US markets have been strong so the expected US Tax Profit-Taking, will probably now be spread out, instead of happening all at once on Jan 2, 2018.

If that's the case, it may be safe to venture back into the markets whenever there's a special situation.

Anyway, the "experts" are now saying that Liquidity in the markets may drop by about US$50b a month, both from Europe & US and may affect the markets.

However, the tunover on the US markets is about US$40b daily so I do not think that it will have much of an effect on the markets for the time being.

If the markets is to drop, it will probably be from Profit-Taking or a Geopolitical Issue.

Finally, the Debt Limit Discussion is coming up on Jan 19 but I'm not expecting much from this issue.


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$61.56 from US$58.41 last week from US$57.34 two weeks ago Support: US$42; Resistance: US$63; US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1320 from US$1279 from US$1258. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Higher. US$17.26 from US$16.45 from US$16.11
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$975 from US$923 from US$894
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3358 from US$3266 from US$3206
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Lower; US$3.23 from US$3.25 from US$3.14
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Flat; US$23.75 from US$23.75 from US$24.15
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years

8. If there's a crash, Commodities would also not be spared
9. The low USD would be good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2743 from 2683 last week from 2676 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Bought GE
c. Bought Chipotle CMG
d. Bought IBM
e. Traded Intel INTC
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 30815 from 29919 from 29578
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: ?
b. Traded MGM China 2282
c. Bought China Taiping 0966
d. Sold Cosco 1919
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3392 from 3307 from 3297
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities
a. Added to Hotel Properties Limited
b. Bought Yanlord Land
c. Bought Jardine Matheson
d. Traded Mandarin Oriental
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23715 from 22765 from 22903
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1818 from 1797 from 1760
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 113.05 from 112.48 last week from 113.36 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.017 from 3.0346 from 3.0287
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7865 from 0.7822 from 0.7720
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.0435 from 1.0449 from 1.0376
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.1433 from 3.1741 from 3.1486
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Stronger. 0.5796 from 0.5788 from 0.5771

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Stronger. 0.6537 from 0.6524 from 0.6512

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2030 from 1.1992 from 1.1814
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8087 from 4.8677 from 4.8349

10. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8188 from 7.8152 from 7.8176
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.9970 from 4.0591 from 4.0790
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3292 from 1.3358 from 1.3440
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4872 from 6.5073 from 6.5753
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3567 from 1.3516 from 1.3375
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4230 from 5.4867 from 5.4555
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 91.95 from 92.27 from 93.35
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.48% from 2.41% last week from 2.48% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 1.96% from 1.88% from 1.89%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 37.03 from 36.72 last week from 36.63 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.97 from 87.26 last week from 87.00 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1341 from 1366 last week from 1430 two weeks ago; Low 290; High


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

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viewtopic.php?f=26&t=3168

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User avatar
winston
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Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 04 (Oct 15 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:43 pm

TOL @ Jan 14, 2018

Chasing.jpg


Chasing The Rally?

The markets have been strong and a lot of the "experts" are now talking about a "Melt-Up". In the meantime, the weekly US Cash Levels are also coming down. It looks like a lot of people are not afraid of chasing the rally.

I can feel a bit of the euphoria but I'm not sure that it's at the level where everyone would be quickly running for the exit at the same time.

For that to happen, there must be a strong opposing force that needs to strike fear in the people eg. War, Cybersecurity Event, Trade War, Natural Disaster etc.

However, the current risks out there includes:-
1. Debt Limits Discussion - dont think it would be a big issue.
2. Mueller's Interview With Trump - any impeachment would still be a while away.
3. NAFTA - spread out over many years
4. Trade War With China - not likely; the test run recently about China not buying anymore US Treasuries, shows that the US needs to be careful

None of the above is big enough to bring the markets down yet. Therefore, it's probably still safe to do some short-term speculative trading whenever any opportunity presents itself.


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$64.40 from US$61.56 last week from US$58.41 two weeks ago; Support: US$42; Resistance: US$80
a. Glut 0.5m bpd; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018?
b. Stockpiles: 2.5b barrels; OECD: 5 year average dropped from 300m to 140m
c. US SPR: 679m barrels (33 days); To sell 190m over 8 years. Released 1m;
d. US imports 8m bpd (Total Demand of India and Japan combined)
e. US: Capex: US$1t; 4100 "Drilled but Uncompleted" (DUC) Wells;
f. US: Active rigs doubled, Currently, 743 vs 316 in May 2016
g. China (4th largest producer) - Reserve life fallen from 10 years to 6 years
h. China (largest importer): Supply: -7% (-300k bpd); Demand 1H 2017: +14%
i. IEA: Lowest amount of new discoveries in 2016; Supply shortage in 2020?
j. Saudi Aramco's IPO delayed to 2019?; Incentive to push prices up; Cutting 1m bpd
k. China: SPR reached 51/90 days; 2017 Imports to decrease?
l. OPEC: Cutting 1.8m bpd; Extended till end 2018; Cap on Libya & Nigeria;
m. Libya: -400k bpd; Brazil +200k bpd; Canada +200k bpd; Nigeria +225k bpd; Iraq +500k bpd; Kurdistan -350k bpd
n. US Fracking: +0.5m bpd US$60; +1m bpd US$70; +0.4m bpd 2017; +1m bpd 2018
o. Venezeula: -250k; Worst Case -2m bpd supply (50% cut by 2020)?
p. China: Ban on Petrolchemical Cars in 5-10 years ? Quotas?
q. US Gasoline: inventories increasing due to colder weather?
r. OPEC: Inventories Surplus at 130m barrels above 5-Year- Average vs 54m barrels last month
s. IEA: +200,000 bpd US Shales; Rebalancing in 3Q 2018
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7550&start=210

2. Gold - Higher. US$1338 from US$1320 from US$1279. Record US$1920.
a. Global 33,000 tons; US 8000t; China 5000t; IMF 3000t; Germany 3000t
b. Electronics, Coins, Central Banks Reserve, Jewellery etc.
c. 250 oz of paper contract for every oz of physical gold holding on Comex?
d. Output fell by 100 metric tons (3%), from 3,150 in 2015 to 3,050 in 2016
e. Demand increasing in Muslim countries as Gold is now a halal investment
f. Rising USD & Interest Rates, would not be good for gold
g. Gold only occupies 0.03% of US investments. In 1981, it was 8%
h: India Demand: Since 2010, decreased each year. 2017 (700t); 2020 (900t)
i. China Demand: Since 2013, decreased 33% from 940t to 630t last year
j. Global Demand: -14% for 1H 2017; US & European ETFs buyers; China weak
k. Central Banks: +20% yoy; Strong Russian buying
l. U.S. government holds 261.5m ounces at book value of US$42m
m. Mid-Term Bullish but Short Term Bearish?
n. China: Reserves 160m oz; 400m oz ground; US: Reserve 260m oz
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

3. Silver - Flat. US$17.25 from US$17.26 from US$16.45
a. Support: US$16.10; US$15.20; Resistance: US$18.50; High: US$49
b. LED chips, Cell Phones, Nuclear Reactors, Photography, Solar Panels, RFID Chips, Semiconductors, Water Purification, Data Storage, Antibacterial products, Silver Coins, Jewelery
c. Demand: 1.2b ounces in 2015;
d. Supply: 0.9b ounces in 2015.
e. 4th year of deficit
f. 35% (7700 metric tons) for Electronics
g. 25% (5500 metric tons) for Bullions & Coins
h. India imports more Silver than the US
i. JPM has 67m ounces
j. High Gold/Siver Ratio: 50 t0 70; Currently 76, 50% higher than average
k, Production declining
l. Demand: 40% Investments / Speculation; 60% Industrial
m. About 1b ounces stored in China; 1 Year Production
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=7589&p=202084#p202084

4. Platinum - Higher; US$998 from US$975 from US$923
a. 28% for jewelry
b. 42% for diesel catalytic converters
c. Remainder for other industrial applications
d. Huge discount to Gold
e. Sixth year of deficit
f. 10 times more gold than platinum
g. Costlier to mine than gold as located deeper
h. Diesel cars losing market share
i. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes (1m cars)
j. 2016: 17.5m cars sold in US

5. Zinc - Higher; US$3391 from US$3358 from US$3266
a. Global Demand: +14% pa for past 4 years
b. Supply: 13.7 tons; Supply Deficit 1.2m tons;
b. Breakpoint: High US$4400 (2007); Low $1600 (Jan 2016)
d. Used to prevent rusting, zinc oxide (paints), brass (copper), coins, fertilizer
e. Zinc inventories at the LME have dropped to their lowest level since 2009
f. Vehicle: DB Base Metal (Zinc, Aluminum & Copper)
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=367&start=208.

6. Copper - Flat; US$3.23 from US$3.22 from US$3.23
a. Higher inventories at LME
b. China - 50% of global consumption
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=215285#p215285

7. Uranium - Flat; US$23.75 from US$23.75 from US$23.75
a. Breakeven: US$40 per lb
b. Range: $20 (2005) to $136 (2008); 580% rise in two years
c. Global production: 158m lbs pa; 15% of Supply from decommisioned weapons
d. Global Demand: 160m lbs pa to 225m lbs pa (2025)
e. Stockpile: 1b lbs (till 2022?) ; Companies normally store 5 years supply
f. Japanese Demand: 13 lbs pa; Starting 21/54 reactors? Currently, only 5 online
g. Number of Nuclear plants: +8 pa for next 20 yrs, 440 to 595; Current 456
h. 61 new reactors under construction; 149 planned; How many would be built ?
i. China: 35 existing plants; Building 21; 2017: 7 Ready: To build 177 more?
j. India: 22 existing nuclear plants; Currently building 5; To build 64 more?
k. 25% long-term supply contracts expiring in 2017-18; 75% between 2017-2025;
l. 200 European nuclear reactors will be shut down over the next 25 years
m. France: Reduce nuclear to 50% from 75% by 2025 and closure of 20 reactors
n. Some buyers are locking in long term contracts at US$40, twice spot rates
o. Kazakhtan reducing supply by 10% (40% of global production)
p. Competition: Natural Gas, Solar, Wind, Wave etc
q. Nuclear: 20% of the electricity generated in the U.S
r. Supply: 50k tonnes; Demand: 68k tonnes; 2k tonnes enriched for weapons
s. 1b pounds has to be purchased for long-term contracts over next 5-10 years
t. Average reactor needs 600,000 to 700,000 pounds to run for a year
u. US: 100/420 reactors; Importing 95% of its uranium requirements
v. New technology to mine Uranium from sea water? Cost and How Soon?
w. Glut at 15m pounds
x. Cameco, world's largest, mothballed mine for 10 months; 10% world's supply
y. Kazatomprom, world's second largest, cut production by 20% for 3 years


8. If there's a crash, Commodities would not be spared
9. The High USD is not good for Commodities


Equities - Risk-On ( Data as of Saturday every week )

1. US Equities - Higher. 2786 from 2743 last week from 2683 two weeks ago.
a. Support 2400; Resistance: 2650;
b. Bought Facebook
c. Sold GE
d. Sold IBM
e. Sold Chipotle
f. Sold INTC
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200

2. HK Equities - Higher. 31413 from 30815 from 29919
a. Support: 26900; Resistance: ?
b. Bought Citic Resources 1205
c. Bought China Cosco 1919
d. Sold China Taiping 0966
e. Sold Conch Cement 0914
f. Sold Sunny Optical 2382
g. Sold MGM China 2282
htttp:/in/vestideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3429 from 3392 from 3307
a. Support: 3210; 2950; 2450; Resistance 3600; 3900
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210

4. Spore Equities; 3521
a. Bought HPL
b. Bought Jardine Strategic
c. Bought Jardine Matheson
d. Sold Yanlord Land
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6828&start=b110

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 23654 from 23715 from 22765
a. No Trade
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1823 from 1818 from 1797
a. Bought Gamuda Warrants
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30


Currencies- Risk-On (Data from XE.com)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 111.14 from 113.05 last week from 112.48 two weeks ago
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio;
d. Why is it a Safe Haven ?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 2.9897 from 3.017 from 3.0346
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.7869 from 0.7865 from 0.7822
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. I need to diversify my AUD into another currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.0444 from 1.0435 from 1.0449
a. The range is 0.98 (2016) to 1.36 (2012).
b. I would choose the AUD over the SGD

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 3.1226 from 3.1433 from 3.1741
a. The range is 2.20 (2008) to 3.41 (2017)

6. AUD to GBP - AUD Weaker. 0.5772 from 0.5796 from 0.5788

7. AUD to EUR - AUD Weaker. 0.6490 from 0.6537 from 0.6524

8. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2125 from 1.2030 from 1.1992
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

9. EUR to MYR - EUR Stronger; 4.8126 from 4.8087 from 4.8677

10. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8247 from 7.8188 from 7.8152
a. 52 week range is 7.7452 - 7.8296.
b. Will they remove the peg to the USD during the next crisis?
c. Will China ask HK to depeg from the USD?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

11. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger. 3.9692 from 3.9970 from 4.0591
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998);
c. Macquarie: 4.90 (Dec 31, 2017)
d. UOB: 4.35 (July 2017)
e. When is the right time to diversify from the MYR? Just before election?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=60

12. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3273 from 1.3292 from 1.3358
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am very uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

13. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4614 from 6.4872 from 6.5073
a. When is the right time to buy some CNY? How?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

14. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger. 1.3630 from 1.3567 from 1.3516
a. Brexit; Politics;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

15. GBP to MYR:- GBP Weaker. 5.4100 from 5.4230 from 5.4867
a. Which is worst - Brexit or Malaysian Election?

16. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 91.38 from 91.95 from 92.27
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.55% from 2.48% last week from 2.41% two weeks ago
a. Low 1.32%; High 2.69%.

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 2.00% from 1.96% from 1.88%

Interest Rates:-
a. Expecting interest rates to remain low and will only rise slowly over next 2 years
b. About US$6t or about 15% of the world’s bonds have negative yields
c. Three rate hikes in 2018? Two in 2019?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&start=70

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher; 36.96 from 37.03 last week from 36.72 two weeks ago

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.58 from 87.97 last week from 87.26 two weeks ago

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1279 from 1341 last week from 1366 two weeks ago; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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