Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 24)

[winston]

The Schiller CAPE price-to-earnings ratio of 30.5 times is currently near the top end of historical bull markets.

“This is a very high P/E ratio, which raises legitimate doubts about how much longer this bull market can persist and how much higher the stock market can rise”.

Source: Yahoo Finance

[winston]

Signs That A Recession Is Imminent

Jan. 5, 2020

by Eric Parnell, CFA

Summary

A corporate profit recession is imminent.

This has important implications for the U.S. economic and stock market outlook.

Key indicators suggest that profits will continue to move in the wrong direction.

Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/431524 ... king_alpha

[winston]

The top five U.S. companies — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook — now make up 18% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, the highest percentage in history, according to Morgan Stanley.

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/13/five-bi ... level.html

[investar]

It's a roaring bull market.
It could go on for a while longer.
TRINA?

Does the TSLA hype count as a warning sign?

[winston]

Founder of world’s largest hedge fund says ‘cash is trash’ as the Dow soars to records

by Mark DeCambre

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0b9c04ef-62 ... rgest.html

[behappyalways]

Bonds look like they are flashing a warning for global markets
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/24/bonds-l ... rkets.html

[winston]

Do NOT buy the dip, warns investor who says a ‘brutal bear market’ looms

By Shawn Langlois

Median EV-to-sales for the S&P 500, based on our work recently reached an insane, euphoric level of 3.6 times, two times than the tech bubble peak.”

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-no ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

Why ‘one of the most dangerous charts’ in all of finance should be ringing alarm bells

By Shawn Langlois

‘Credit channels might start amplifying the economic

U.S. credit markets have exploded from $2 trillion in 2008 to $7 trillion these days.

The driver, as you can see, has been a surge in single-A and BBB paper — the latter, Zschaepitz says, could fall into junk, or noninvestment grade territory, if/when the recession hits.

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-o ... yptr=yahoo

[winston]

The Biggest Market-Crashing Threat Out There Right Now

by Shah Gilani

At Least 2 Million New, Inexperienced Investors Are in the Arena Now

This time around, professionals have been chasing the freshly minted traders – the “FOMO crowd.”

There’s still a ton of institutional money on the sidelines; maybe as much as $1.5 trillion has missed the rally, which could cushion any market sell-off.

This is a classic trader’s market: Don’t succumb to the FOMO that’s got even professional investors swept up.

Source: Money Morning

https://dailytradealert.com/2020/06/17/ ... right-now/

[winston]

Another Bear Market Indicator Just Fired. What To Do About It.

by Rob Isbitts

In terms of investment strategy, here are my conclusions:

1. The risk many investors are taking to earn returns in the stock market is historically very high. It has been that way for over 2 years.

2. The bond market is signaling that long-term interest rates are headed higher. Maybe not immediately, but eventually. That usually coincides with an uptick in inflation. After years of subdued consumer prices, even a modest lift in that could be a rude awakening for retirees and pre-retirees.

3. Don’t take ANYTHING for granted in this environment. Have a plan.

4. Keep watching the 10-2 spread for additional cues about bond and stock market risk.

Source: Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robisbitts ... 80ca4424ef