Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 24)

Re: Warning Signs 02 (Feb 15 - Jun 19)

Postby winston » Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:40 pm

Recession Indicators
1) The Yield Curve
2) The Labor Market
3) Transportation

Source: Zack's Investment Management
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:41 am

When these two signals flash red, start worrying about stocks, says Invesco

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Levitt warns that they do need to watch a couple of factors that could weigh on stocks:-
1. Tightening financial conditions and
2. Persistent dollar strength


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when- ... o_homepage
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:11 pm

Two Groups of Stocks Are About to Send Crisis-Era Signals on the Economy

by Sarah Ponczek

It’s small caps and transportation stocks, whose performance has deteriorated at a much faster clip than other parts of the market.

Relative to the S&P 500, each group is on the brink of hitting its lowest point since 2009.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-grou ... 18950.html
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:20 pm

The warning signs are increasing and becoming more ominous

1. The inversion in the Treasury yield curve has many people saying the bond market is anticipating a recession.
2. The transports have been mauled, and freight shipments have been in a steep decline.
3. The small-cap stocks have been hammered, as typically they depend on a robust U.S. economy. Along with the transports relative to the S&P 500, both are at the lowest level since 2009.
4. Weak numbers from the Dallas Federal Reserve this week were a warning sign as well, as the Texas economy is considered one of the strongest in the nation.
5. Consumer confidence plunged to 121.5 in June from 131.3 in May, reaching the lowest reading since Sept. 2017.
6. The broad market multiples on a forward earnings basis for the rest of 2019 are way above historical norms and are also flashing a warning sign.
7. Gold has rallied to the highest levels in six years.

Source: 24/7 Wall Street
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:47 pm

Financial Crisis Bear Market Is Scary Close

by Chris Vermeulen

THREE LEADING SECTORS TO WATCH
TRANSPORTS, INDUSTRIALS, SMALL-CAP STOCKS

In short, the bear market has been a long time coming, but finally, almost all the signs are showing that it’s about to start.


Source: FX Empire

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/financia ... 11748.html
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:55 pm

Warning: The stock market could be about to drop through this ‘trapdoor’

By Shawn Langlois

Back in 2007, when Wall Street was careening toward the financial crisis, the S&P 500 split from the consumer discretionary-to-consumer staples ratio, in a sign that appetite for risk was drying up even as the broader market pushed higher.



Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warni ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:19 am

Here’s a list of recession signals that are flashing red

by Maggie Fitzgerald

1. Inverted Yield Curve
2. GDP Decline
3. Slowing Corporate Profits
4. Manufacturing Contraction / PMI
5. Declining Cass Freight Index
6. Weak Copper Prices
7. Higher Gold Prices
8. Higher Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
9. Lower Business Spending


Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/02/heres-a ... KW,2V62D,1
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 21, 2019 10:47 am

The $31 Trillion U.S. Stock Market Just Sprung a Leak

By Eric Fry

The small-cap sector, for example, has sprung a leak. The S&P SmallCap 600 index topped out one year ago and has slipped 15% since then, even though the S&P 500 has continued moving higher and making new all-time highs.

The failure of small-cap stocks to advance in unison with their large-cap counterparts is not always a bad sign, but it is never a good one. Technical analysts describe this phenomenon as a "bearish divergence" that often portends overall stock market weakness.


Another sort of bearish divergence is also signaling trouble ahead: The "new highs" list has been contracting for nearly two years. The "new highs" list tracks the weekly tally of stocks on U.S. exchanges that are hitting new 52-week highs.

Generally speaking, a "healthy" stock market produces a rising number of new highs as it marches higher, whereas an unhealthy stock market produces a contracting number of new highs.

Technical analysts refer to the latter phenomenon as "narrow participation" ... and it is never a positive sign.


An inverted yield curve

A poorly performing transportation sector

A reviving precious metals sector


Source: Fry's Investment Report
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:52 pm

3 major warning signs may mean danger ahead for the stock market

by Brian Sozzi

1. FAANG has died
2. Recession risk climbs
3. Dow Transports continue to suck wind


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-wa ... 14407.html
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Re: Warning Signs 03 (Jun 19 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 29, 2019 9:43 pm

As US Stocks Near Record Highs, These Charts Spell Caution

Source: IWB

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/as- ... l-caution/
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