Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Re: Bonds 04 (Jul 15 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 16, 2018 9:32 pm

China's holdings of U.S. Treasurys slip to six-month low of $1.168 trillion

By Sunny Oh

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/china ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:42 am

Bonds: 2.844 versus 2.826%.

Bonds rallied last week, clearing the 20 day EMA Tuesday.

Rallied to the 50 day EMA then lost some ground Friday.

The move leads some to speculate if bonds are about to rally.

A break through the 50 day MA's would be the most important move for that direction.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2018 8:30 am

Bonds: 2.813% versus 2.806%.

Bonds up on the week, moving to the 50 day MA, trying to reverse trend.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:48 pm

The U.S. is slated to auction about $294 billion of bills and notes this week, the largest supply ever.
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:35 pm

The Bear Market In Bonds Is Just Getting Started

The recent drop in yields will be tested by a surge in borrowing by the U.S. government and a ballooning budget deficit.

The Treasury plans to more than double its borrowing this year to some $1 trillion to pay for the expanding budget deficit.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... gain-steam
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:55 am

Bonds: 2.775% versus 2.812%.

Of course the trade worries and jobs report bounced bonds again.

After a week pulling back to test the 50 day MA after breaking over it, a bounce upside Friday in an attempt to continue the new rally off the February low.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:23 am

Bonds: 2.96% versus 2.914%.

Bonds broke lower Thursday, gapping below the 50 day MA.

Friday they continued lower.

A breakdown and 3+% 10 year yields look viable.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:08 pm

Yielding to pressure

The meaning of 3% Treasury-bond yields

There is no need to panic about the government-bond market


ROUND numbers would be irrelevant if investors were rational. But they are not. This week the ten-year Treasury-bond yield passed the 3% threshold for the first time in over four years and investors shuddered. Their worry is that the long downward march in yields, which began in 1982, may at last be over. Is it?

That question is not of interest just to bondholders, for whom higher yields mean lower prices. Government-bond yields set the benchmark for the borrowing costs of companies and consumers. When they rise, the weakest companies and the most indebted consumers are likely to get into difficulty.

If the cost of government borrowing rises, it becomes harder to finance budget deficits. Politicians may be forced into cutting spending or raising taxes. If the breaching of the 3% threshold were to presage an abrupt rise in yields, there could be trouble ahead (which is why stockmarkets wobbled this week). Yet a bond-market bloodbath seems unlikely.

It is no surprise that bond yields have been trending upwards. They reached historically low levels after the financial crisis of 2007-08, when central banks pulled out all the stops in an attempt to revive the global economy. Trillions of dollars of government bonds were bought as part of quantitative-easing (QE) programmes.

As worries mounted about “secular stagnation”, an extended period of slow growth and low inflation, investors were even prepared to lock in losses. At one point more than $10trn-worth of bonds traded on negative yields.

Last year, however, the global economy seemed to pick up again. Central banks withdrew some monetary stimulus. At the same time, governments started to ease fiscal austerity. The developed world may have reached a turning-point, where the amount of QE steadily dwindles and the amount of government-bond issuance rises.

America is leading the way. The Federal Reserve is paring back its bond holdings. And after the tax cuts passed in December, trillion-dollar deficits are forecast from 2020.

The main threat to the government-bond market has historically been higher inflation. Headline inflation rates have ticked up a bit and the recent surge in the oil price may add to the pressure (see article).

Tighter labour markets could yet push up wages and have a more lasting impact. But at the moment, the only OECD countries with annual inflation rates of more than 3% are Mexico and Turkey.

A sharp rise in bond yields may be self-limiting. The IMF warned on April 18th that global debt is higher than ever, relative to GDP. The risk that higher borrowing costs could sharply slow growth ought to dissuade central banks from tightening monetary policy too quickly.

Jumpy investors should remember Japan. Government-bond yields there have defied two decades of forecasts that they will move higher. Betting against Japanese bonds proved to be such a bad trading strategy that it became known as “the widow-maker”. It is too early to proclaim the end of the low-yield era elsewhere, too.

Economic data so far this year have been rather disappointing, particularly in Europe (see Finance section). And the gap between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields has narrowed since early February, from three-quarters of a percentage point to around half a point. This flattening of the yield curve is often seen as a sign that the market believes the peak in interest rates may be getting close.

The world is flatter

Some even think that the lows for government-bond yields are still to come. When the next recession hits, as it eventually will, central banks may not have the leeway to cut short-term rates by the four percentage points or so that are the typical response to a downturn. They may have to unleash a new round of QE and buy lots more bonds.

So do not panic. Even if bonds yield a bit more than 3%, that is a lot lower than the level which prevailed before 2007. Pension funds, insurance companies and retired savers will still be willing buyers of bonds at these rates. Unless inflation unexpectedly surges, this is not a rout.

Source: The Economist
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:12 am

Bonds: 2.959% versus 2.975%.

Bonds rallied back for a second session, making it to the 10 day EMA and near the 50 day SMA.

Possible double bottom using the February and April lows.

Thus far a decent move, more a relief move.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Bonds 05 (Sep 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Thu May 03, 2018 7:34 am

U.S. Lifts Debt Sales as Deficit Grows, Plans 2-Month Bills

By Saleha Mohsin and Liz McCormick

Department to sell $73b this quarter and raise $33.9b in cash
Treasury again left inflation-linked securities unchanged

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mbergdaily
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